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janders
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:39 am

75driver wrote:
My wife’s company permanently eliminated two thirds of their business travel back mid May but they dispatched the essentials a couple weeks ago. Mostly engineer/tech types with only a couple sales execs. They are only flying DL because the adjoining business class seat is empty but they made them all sign some kind of contract with a 4 page “legal” addendum. Similar conditions as your company but some further draconian stipulations because the lawyers have them scared. Kinda crazy to think sending out employees on business trips creates liability but here we are. Nuts.


Not nuts at all. Its the law in many places.

For instance, if an employee contracts COVID in California, it is now automatically presumed they were infected on the job, and puts the burden on employers to prove otherwise. Law allows expedited workers comp claim against the employer, and obviously other legal liability should the employee seek further damages.

Its frankly not worth operating under the threat of COVID for most businesses, and things like sending employees out across the country during a raging pandemic is a fools errand.
 
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75driver
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:49 am

I didn’t mean the employers were nuts, just the conditions employers are having to deal with now is nuts, unprecedented. The legal ramifications of business travel will stifle any recovery and its something I never thought of but I agree with you. Had no idea Cal was treating it as such. Crazy times for sure.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 13, 2020 5:03 am

I wonder if any business travel is being hidden by the absolute dirt cheap sale fares
 
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75driver
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 13, 2020 5:58 am

32andBelow wrote:
I wonder if any business travel is being hidden by the absolute dirt cheap sale fares


Are business class tickets cheap too? I literally have no clue. I’ve never bought a ticket. :lol:
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 13, 2020 6:19 am

janders wrote:
75driver wrote:
My wife’s company permanently eliminated two thirds of their business travel back mid May but they dispatched the essentials a couple weeks ago. Mostly engineer/tech types with only a couple sales execs. They are only flying DL because the adjoining business class seat is empty but they made them all sign some kind of contract with a 4 page “legal” addendum. Similar conditions as your company but some further draconian stipulations because the lawyers have them scared. Kinda crazy to think sending out employees on business trips creates liability but here we are. Nuts.


Not nuts at all. Its the law in many places.

For instance, if an employee contracts COVID in California, it is now automatically presumed they were infected on the job, and puts the burden on employers to prove otherwise. Law allows expedited workers comp claim against the employer, and obviously other legal liability should the employee seek further damages.

Its frankly not worth operating under the threat of COVID for most businesses, and things like sending employees out across the country during a raging pandemic is a fools errand.


Agree.

The push to force things in the face of a pandemic that isn’t improving is worrying. Next to nothing is being done to actually limit the spread in many places, with some sort of reasoning that it will just disappear or somehow won’t affect them.
 
max999
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 13, 2020 6:24 am

The Wall Street journal says the reduction in business travel may be permanent.

Travel executives forecast a permanent reduction in business travel due to Covid-19 of around 15%, and some analysts are even gloomier


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.co ... 1597155657
Last edited by max999 on Thu Aug 13, 2020 6:39 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 13, 2020 6:24 am

max999 wrote:
Travel executives forecast a permanent reduction in business travel due to Covid-19 of around 15%, and some analysts are even gloomier


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.co ... 1597155657

They have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen
 
chrisair
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:03 am

75driver wrote:
It’s very worrisome when I see a pilot with a 6 seater greeting 4 “friends” introducing themselves to each other while filing a flight plan I know he doesn’t fly!


Agree. My family knows someone who does this. To be fair, I don’t know if they operate on a 135 certificate or not, but when I saw what they wanted to charge me for a Phenom 300 and was told “oh yeah, I met this guy who owns a jet,” I just noped right out of there.

75driver wrote:
My wife’s company permanently eliminated two thirds of their business travel back mid May but they dispatched the essentials a couple weeks ago. Mostly engineer/tech types with only a couple sales execs. They are only flying DL because the adjoining business class seat is empty but they made them all sign some kind of contract with a 4 page “legal” addendum. Similar conditions as your company but some further draconian stipulations because the lawyers have them scared. Kinda crazy to think sending out employees on business trips creates liability but here we are. Nuts.


All of those stipulations make sense to me. We don’t let our team share rental cars (or their own for that matter). But I go back to what I’m hearing from our team. Very few customers are meeting with them in person. Those that are, mostly, are meeting in parking lots or other outdoor spaces. For my guys to get in to a major customer’s facility to help them with some issues, required three different VP level approvals. And we had an request from a VP! I don’t know your industries so it’s hard to compare. Crazy stuff.

janders wrote:
For instance, if an employee contracts COVID in California, it is now automatically presumed they were infected on the job, and puts the burden on employers to prove otherwise.


I looked this up because I didn’t realize they did this. It’s only for workers comp claims if the employee was physically present at a job. Employees generally can’t sue their employer in California if they’re hurt or get sick on the job. It has to go through workers comp.

That being said, that’s going to cause headaches.
 
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InsideMan
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:18 am

max999 wrote:
The Wall Street journal says the reduction in business travel may be permanent.

Travel executives forecast a permanent reduction in business travel due to Covid-19 of around 15%, and some analysts are even gloomier


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.co ... 1597155657


I'm fairly confident it will be significantly more than 15% . Not because of liability issues or even long term COVID but simply because it saves a lot of money and zoom meetings are good enough in many instances. Same thing for offices. Companies see how much they save on utilities when people are working from home and dream of cutting office rent on top. This will take a little longer, but expect the share of home office to increase a lot compared to pre-COVID levels.
 
tphuang
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:17 pm

I can't say for other part of the country. But NY/NJ is a very litigious environment, so companies are really hesitant to do anything that might get them sued on the other end. So until COVID looks like its dying off, they are not going to lift company wide travel ban outside of the most essential travels. International travel is going to take even longer to come back. Who wants to get in a situation where the employee is stuck outside the country due to a lockdown.
 
Vctony
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:38 pm

chrisair wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
PHX I was in shoulder-shoulder traffic walking in the A concourse gates. SEA was quite busy in the AS gates I was at, BZN/SLC looked just as busy as usual (SLC had an hour long wait for rental cars), IND/ORD looked less busy than usual but far from ghost towns.


Interesting. I think it depends on when you hit the airport. Wife's mother flew to SLC over the weekend and said SLC was a ghost town. Flight was 1/4 full.

FWIW, SLC has always seemed to be a pain point for rental cars in my experience. I don't know what it is about that airport, but it's either an hour wait to get one, there's nobody working returns, you reserve a mid-size and end up with a land yacht or the cardboard box with 75,000 miles on it. I gave up last year and just started taking the train or Uber.

75driver wrote:
No plans at this point but never know. If anything in GA needs to be cracked down on it’s the 91 grey birds acting like quasi 135’s. It’s now almost a daily occurrence at my field. If it’s like this in other places the airlines are definitely missing out on some traffic. Another topic entirely though.


A friend of mine flies for a real 135 operator and says his company has been busier than ever with the jet card passengers and the owners. Some of these app based broker services kind of worry me.


PHX is a ghost town other than about 8:30-10:30 am and 2:30-4:30 pm (at least on the AA side).
 
Miamiairport
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:48 pm

The problem I see is that people are being encouraged to be tested. With more testing comes more positive numbers albeit many don't even know they have the virus. Higher numbers means more lockdowns, quarantines and travel restriction. Good luck getting the panic porn media to point out that while numbers are rising hospitalizations and deaths might be declining and the increase in numbers is due to getting more people to take the test.

Some people will see through the fear, take whatever precautions and get on with their life-including travel. Most people (given that at best travel levels are 30% of 2019) will become mindless zombies, hiding in their house. Not to mention what this is doing to employment.
 
Exeiowa
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:11 pm

I don't understand why knowing you are infected is a bad thing? irregardless you would be infected and a potential vector for transmission. This way at least if you know that you are you can take remedial action against furthering spread.

If your wife was cheating on you and you didn't know about it she would still be cheating.
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:15 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
The problem I see is that people are being encouraged to be tested. With more testing comes more positive numbers albeit many don't even know they have the virus. Higher numbers means more lockdowns, quarantines and travel restriction. Good luck getting the panic porn media to point out that while numbers are rising hospitalizations and deaths might be declining and the increase in numbers is due to getting more people to take the test.

Some people will see through the fear, take whatever precautions and get on with their life-including travel. Most people (given that at best travel levels are 30% of 2019) will become mindless zombies, hiding in their house. Not to mention what this is doing to employment.


That mindset goes straight to the heart of why the issue is as bad as it is.

The more people get tested, the more a realistic picture is known about the spread of the virus, and the easier it is to try and limit the risk to the community. It’s not a way of making people or things look worse than it is, it’s the reality.

The more that it stays in the community, the higher the risk to the most vulnerable and the likelihood of increased deaths.

The only way to get the economy moving again around the world is to control the spread. Wishing it away by ignoring it won’t get confidence back into business, and therefore won’t get a significant amount of people flying again, even at rock bottom fares.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:37 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
The problem I see is that people are being encouraged to be tested. With more testing comes more positive numbers albeit many don't even know they have the virus. Higher numbers means more lockdowns, quarantines and travel restriction. Good luck getting the panic porn media to point out that while numbers are rising hospitalizations and deaths might be declining and the increase in numbers is due to getting more people to take the test.


It's not just more people getting tested - positivity rates have climbed.

See, for example, Idaho: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/ind ... ates/idaho

Get away from the stupid Trumpian 'Stop testing people and the problem goes away' fallacy - community spread means there really are lots more people getting the disease.
 
hohd
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:16 pm

International leisure travel will bounce back and some leisure travelers might even try business class, who would normally otherwise choose economy. In our company (we are a large pipeline company with ops in almost all states), business travel has been cut back 90%, even in 2021, the forecast is only 50% of the travel done in 2019. Years from now, we be may be looking at 2019 as the golden year of travel for airlines.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:47 pm

chrisair wrote:
I looked this up because I didn’t realize they did this. It’s only for workers comp claims if the employee was physically present at a job. Employees generally can’t sue their employer in California if they’re hurt or get sick on the job. It has to go through workers comp.


Indeed, California's presumption that employees were infected on the job and eased workers compensation process for them created a large risk for employers for which that might be paying for years to come through higher rates.

Many employers don't want employees anywhere near their worksites or offices, let alone out traveling on company business.

As some airline CEO's have stated, travel and especially business travel including conventions, incentive events, and such won't be back until there is a solid vaccine that has been deployed widely. No company will send their broad workforce out when both health and legal risk remain so high.
 
Miamiairport
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 13, 2020 4:14 pm

LAXintl wrote:
chrisair wrote:
I looked this up because I didn’t realize they did this. It’s only for workers comp claims if the employee was physically present at a job. Employees generally can’t sue their employer in California if they’re hurt or get sick on the job. It has to go through workers comp.


Indeed, California's presumption that employees were infected on the job and eased workers compensation process for them created a large risk for employers for which that might be paying for years to come through higher rates.

Many employers don't want employees anywhere near their worksites or offices, let alone out traveling on company business.

As some airline CEO's have stated, travel and especially business travel including conventions, incentive events, and such won't be back until there is a solid vaccine that has been deployed widely. No company will send their broad workforce out when both health and legal risk remain so high.


Not to mention if an employee that would normally travel for their job (for example sales) refuses and instead wants to conduct business virtual. Could a company realistically fire that person for refusing to carry out the duties of their job-travel to customer and prospect sites? Most companies would be very hesitant to fire an employee that would refuse to fly.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 13, 2020 4:15 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
chrisair wrote:
I looked this up because I didn’t realize they did this. It’s only for workers comp claims if the employee was physically present at a job. Employees generally can’t sue their employer in California if they’re hurt or get sick on the job. It has to go through workers comp.


Indeed, California's presumption that employees were infected on the job and eased workers compensation process for them created a large risk for employers for which that might be paying for years to come through higher rates.

Many employers don't want employees anywhere near their worksites or offices, let alone out traveling on company business.

As some airline CEO's have stated, travel and especially business travel including conventions, incentive events, and such won't be back until there is a solid vaccine that has been deployed widely. No company will send their broad workforce out when both health and legal risk remain so high.


Not to mention if an employee that would normally travel for their job (for example sales) refuses and instead wants to conduct business virtual. Could a company realistically fire that person for refusing to carry out the duties of their job-travel to customer and prospect sites? Most companies would be very hesitant to fire an employee that would refuse to fly.

Probably not but they could send someone else and your commission would be bad
 
brilondon
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:06 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
The problem I see is that people are being encouraged to be tested. With more testing comes more positive numbers albeit many don't even know they have the virus. Higher numbers means more lockdowns, quarantines and travel restriction. Good luck getting the panic porn media to point out that while numbers are rising hospitalizations and deaths might be declining and the increase in numbers is due to getting more people to take ,the test.

Some people will see through the fear, take whatever precautions and get on with their life-including travel. Most people (given that at best travel levels are 30% of 2019) will become mindless zombies, hiding in their house. Not to mention what this is doing to employment.


You sound like somebody. Stop testing so much, and you won't have as many cases.
 
chrisair
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 13, 2020 10:21 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
Not to mention if an employee that would normally travel for their job (for example sales) refuses and instead wants to conduct business virtual. Could a company realistically fire that person for refusing to carry out the duties of their job-travel to customer and prospect sites? Most companies would be very hesitant to fire an employee that would refuse to fly.


Depends on your state, if the worker is part of a protected class and so on. Realistically? Of course you could and I'm sure there are companies that are doing it. I think there's going to be a lot more sales people driving.

For my company, we specifically tell our team if they're not comfortable with anything we ask them to do, tell us and we'll figure out how to make sure they're taken care of and the customer is taken care of. But we also don't treat our employees as faceless numbers.

We've had one sales guy say "I won't fly. I have a pre-existing condition and I'm not comfortable with it." He's working 90% virtually and seeing customers in their parking lots from a distance. On the other end of the spectrum, we have another sales guy who thinks this is a giant conspiracy and will lead to Bill Gates appearing in his house with mind control inoculations. He's flown a few times for vacations.

32andBelow wrote:
Probably not but they could send someone else and your commission would be bad


Have you ever worked in sales and had a sales territory you're responsible for?
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Aug 14, 2020 3:31 am

chrisair wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
Not to mention if an employee that would normally travel for their job (for example sales) refuses and instead wants to conduct business virtual. Could a company realistically fire that person for refusing to carry out the duties of their job-travel to customer and prospect sites? Most companies would be very hesitant to fire an employee that would refuse to fly.


Depends on your state, if the worker is part of a protected class and so on. Realistically? Of course you could and I'm sure there are companies that are doing it. I think there's going to be a lot more sales people driving.

For my company, we specifically tell our team if they're not comfortable with anything we ask them to do, tell us and we'll figure out how to make sure they're taken care of and the customer is taken care of. But we also don't treat our employees as faceless numbers.

We've had one sales guy say "I won't fly. I have a pre-existing condition and I'm not comfortable with it." He's working 90% virtually and seeing customers in their parking lots from a distance. On the other end of the spectrum, we have another sales guy who thinks this is a giant conspiracy and will lead to Bill Gates appearing in his house with mind control inoculations. He's flown a few times for vacations.

32andBelow wrote:
Probably not but they could send someone else and your commission would be bad


Have you ever worked in sales and had a sales territory you're responsible for?

No but I work still and if I don’t go someone else has to
 
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spinotter
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Aug 14, 2020 12:35 pm

brilondon wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
The problem I see is that people are being encouraged to be tested. With more testing comes more positive numbers albeit many don't even know they have the virus. Higher numbers means more lockdowns, quarantines and travel restriction. Good luck getting the panic porn media to point out that while numbers are rising hospitalizations and deaths might be declining and the increase in numbers is due to getting more people to take ,the test.

Some people will see through the fear, take whatever precautions and get on with their life-including travel. Most people (given that at best travel levels are 30% of 2019) will become mindless zombies, hiding in their house. Not to mention what this is doing to employment.


You sound like somebody. Stop testing so much, and you won't have as many cases.


In order to halt the spread of Covid-19, testing, contact tracing, and isolation are essential. Do you see what has happened in New Zealand after the discovery of four new cases? And NZ along with a few other countries has been totally successful in controlling the epidemic. On the other end of the scale of success and failure you have the USA, where right now tracing is almost impossible given the number of infections. So your point of view is perhaps more valid for the horror story that is the USA right now, but not in a country which takes proper care of its people. Ignorance has its moments in the sun.
 
Miamiairport
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Aug 14, 2020 3:43 pm

PHX was very busy this week. LAX which I connected through was pretty empty. I was the sole person on the upgrade list for a LAX/MIA flight (got the last seat). Normally a Thursday afternoon LAX/MIA flight the upgrade list would be rolling to 2 or 3 pages and if you're a low spend EXP like me you would be somewhere like number 10, or higher, and destined to sit in Y.

I just don't see business travel making any kind of meaningful recovery until a vaccine is available for mass distribution. Even then it may be ineffective on some or have side effects too risky for some.
 
chrisair
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Aug 14, 2020 6:12 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
PHX was very busy this week.


I live close to the point where aircraft arriving PHX from the north enter the downwind leg and I’ve definitely noticed an uptick in arriving aircraft in the morning when I go outside. Pre-pandemic I’d normally see one every few minutes. In April I could sit outside for a few hours and only see one or two.

Curious where PHX was busy this week? I know they haven’t reopened the B&D checkpoints yet in T4. Wonder at what point they’ll open them.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Aug 14, 2020 6:16 pm

Still increasing week over week. Haven’t hit the peak yet.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Aug 14, 2020 6:57 pm

Fridays in Mid-July through Mid-August are typically the busiest travel days of the calendar year.

I actually think that September is probably going to hold-steady and/or be up slightly versus August.
This obviously is not a traditional year. September can still be a busy travel month as the weather is still good over most of the country and I suspect there are people are becoming more comfortable with travel and some slight increase in essential business travel.

I think the impact of traditional summer travel being skewed toward "vacationing families" may have been a bit overstated in this year. A lot of families that would normally fly during summer travel did not this year for a whole variety of reasons. While they won't be flying in September as virtual /hybrid some form of school returns in my opinion I don't think they were as big a driver of summer travel this as in years past.

The question mark really is October & November as the weather cools in most of the country and all the leisure traffic to mountain west/national parks ends for the season.
I do think that Florida may end up being nuts this winter. By then I think a lot of families in the northern areas are going to be so sick of being on remote work and virtual schooling they are going to be ready to head somewhere warm for a week.
 
Miamiairport
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Aug 14, 2020 7:29 pm

If Florida continues to see high numbers there's going to be a squash on activities (SE Florida still has some lockdown measurers in place) that attract high numbers. Beaches, bars, restaurants, other outdoor venues. People that come here might find no beach, no bars, no restaurants (other than take away), no outdoor activities. In other words stay in your hotel room or walk around a resort town with nothing to do. You might be warm but you will be bored and very restricted to what you can do.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:51 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Fridays in Mid-July through Mid-August are typically the busiest travel days of the calendar year.

I actually think that September is probably going to hold-steady and/or be up slightly versus August.
This obviously is not a traditional year. September can still be a busy travel month as the weather is still good over most of the country and I suspect there are people are becoming more comfortable with travel and some slight increase in essential business travel.

I think the impact of traditional summer travel being skewed toward "vacationing families" may have been a bit overstated in this year. A lot of families that would normally fly during summer travel did not this year for a whole variety of reasons. While they won't be flying in September as virtual /hybrid some form of school returns in my opinion I don't think they were as big a driver of summer travel this as in years past.

The question mark really is October & November as the weather cools in most of the country and all the leisure traffic to mountain west/national parks ends for the season.
I do think that Florida may end up being nuts this winter. By then I think a lot of families in the northern areas are going to be so sick of being on remote work and virtual schooling they are going to be ready to head somewhere warm for a week.


Yeah, I've flown on 3 different trips this summer, and kids & families were almost non-existent at airports

Florida is going to be wild this winter, where else can people even go? B6/UA/NK/F9 have already announced new routes & expansions to Florida for this winter. I can only imagine AA & DL have something planned as well.

Only other options this winter for leisure are ski resorts & Arizona
 
chrisair
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Aug 14, 2020 10:31 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Yeah, I've flown on 3 different trips this summer, and kids & families were almost non-existent at airports


Curious what the demographics were?

Midwestindy wrote:
Only other options this winter for leisure are ski resorts & Arizona


Arizona is full. Don’t come to Arizona.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Aug 14, 2020 10:53 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Fridays in Mid-July through Mid-August are typically the busiest travel days of the calendar year.

I actually think that September is probably going to hold-steady and/or be up slightly versus August.
This obviously is not a traditional year. September can still be a busy travel month as the weather is still good over most of the country and I suspect there are people are becoming more comfortable with travel and some slight increase in essential business travel.

I think the impact of traditional summer travel being skewed toward "vacationing families" may have been a bit overstated in this year. A lot of families that would normally fly during summer travel did not this year for a whole variety of reasons. While they won't be flying in September as virtual /hybrid some form of school returns in my opinion I don't think they were as big a driver of summer travel this as in years past.

The question mark really is October & November as the weather cools in most of the country and all the leisure traffic to mountain west/national parks ends for the season.
I do think that Florida may end up being nuts this winter. By then I think a lot of families in the northern areas are going to be so sick of being on remote work and virtual schooling they are going to be ready to head somewhere warm for a week.


Yeah, I've flown on 3 different trips this summer, and kids & families were almost non-existent at airports

Florida is going to be wild this winter, where else can people even go? B6/UA/NK/F9 have already announced new routes & expansions to Florida for this winter. I can only imagine AA & DL have something planned as well.

Only other options this winter for leisure are ski resorts & Arizona

Ski season is going to start up. I bet the Bahamas will open for winter. Can they afford not to?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:03 am

chrisair wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Yeah, I've flown on 3 different trips this summer, and kids & families were almost non-existent at airports


Curious what the demographics were?


For context one was early-mid June to TPA, one was July 4th to DEN, last one was 1st week of Aug ORD/SEA/SLC/BZN

The largest groups I saw within airports were solo travelers & lots of couples(young newly wed types + empty nesters).

Within solo travelers there were a surprising amount of minors....not sure why. Don't know the exact % obviously, but I believe around 70% of my flights had unaccompanied minors, which is pretty rare.

If I did see families within the airport it was usually with kids under the age of 4-5, but there just aren't many families flying right now. There were plenty of families at the destinations, but that is because most families are driving right now.

chrisair wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Only other options this winter for leisure are ski resorts & Arizona


Arizona is full. Don’t come to Arizona.

:lol:

32andBelow wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Fridays in Mid-July through Mid-August are typically the busiest travel days of the calendar year.

I actually think that September is probably going to hold-steady and/or be up slightly versus August.
This obviously is not a traditional year. September can still be a busy travel month as the weather is still good over most of the country and I suspect there are people are becoming more comfortable with travel and some slight increase in essential business travel.

I think the impact of traditional summer travel being skewed toward "vacationing families" may have been a bit overstated in this year. A lot of families that would normally fly during summer travel did not this year for a whole variety of reasons. While they won't be flying in September as virtual /hybrid some form of school returns in my opinion I don't think they were as big a driver of summer travel this as in years past.

The question mark really is October & November as the weather cools in most of the country and all the leisure traffic to mountain west/national parks ends for the season.
I do think that Florida may end up being nuts this winter. By then I think a lot of families in the northern areas are going to be so sick of being on remote work and virtual schooling they are going to be ready to head somewhere warm for a week.


Yeah, I've flown on 3 different trips this summer, and kids & families were almost non-existent at airports

Florida is going to be wild this winter, where else can people even go? B6/UA/NK/F9 have already announced new routes & expansions to Florida for this winter. I can only imagine AA & DL have something planned as well.

Only other options this winter for leisure are ski resorts & Arizona

Ski season is going to start up. I bet the Bahamas will open for winter. Can they afford not to?


Skiing is niche though, especially since for most of the midwest/northeast, the point of winter vacation is to escape the snow. There is a reason why flights are so limited to ski resort areas.

Even if Bahamas & the Caribbean are open, the booking window for international (even short-haul int'l) is longer than domestic, and with uncertainty around international restrictions you are going to have difficulty finding a significant amount of demand for Caribbean travel.
 
Cedar
Posts: 111
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2017 1:07 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:10 am

Miamiairport wrote:
The problem I see is that people are being encouraged to be tested. With more testing comes more positive numbers albeit many don't even know they have the virus. Higher numbers means more lockdowns, quarantines and travel restriction. Good luck getting the panic porn media to point out that while numbers are rising hospitalizations and deaths might be declining and the increase in numbers is due to getting more people to take the test.

Some people will see through the fear, take whatever precautions and get on with their life-including travel. Most people (given that at best travel levels are 30% of 2019) will become mindless zombies, hiding in their house. Not to mention what this is doing to employment.



For those that have debated you or claim that we need to control the spread - I invite them to take a look at the CDC data. link attached.
This alone explains the whole story. https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-C ... -hcku/data

Note - the comparison of total deaths between COVID & PNEUMONIA (1st & 3rd column) - why is the Pnemonia spread not being controlled or tested then.

The rest of the columns are per CDC "people who have died with other illness but also tested positive for COVID"

Cedar
 
mentaisupa
Posts: 29
Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:08 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:40 am

Cedar wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
The problem I see is that people are being encouraged to be tested. With more testing comes more positive numbers albeit many don't even know they have the virus. Higher numbers means more lockdowns, quarantines and travel restriction. Good luck getting the panic porn media to point out that while numbers are rising hospitalizations and deaths might be declining and the increase in numbers is due to getting more people to take the test.

Some people will see through the fear, take whatever precautions and get on with their life-including travel. Most people (given that at best travel levels are 30% of 2019) will become mindless zombies, hiding in their house. Not to mention what this is doing to employment.



For those that have debated you or claim that we need to control the spread - I invite them to take a look at the CDC data. link attached.
This alone explains the whole story. https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-C ... -hcku/data

Note - the comparison of total deaths between COVID & PNEUMONIA (1st & 3rd column) - why is the Pnemonia spread not being controlled or tested then.

The rest of the columns are per CDC "people who have died with other illness but also tested positive for COVID"

Cedar

FWIW US pneumonia deaths generally has been 50k per year, so there's probably a significant number of those in the pneumonia column who aren't counted for COVID that have either been categorized wrongly (many symptoms are similar to pneumonia) or have died unnecessarily due to resources being taken up due to COVID spread. Either way, there's excess deaths due to COVID-19 spread in the US.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5693
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:43 am

Midwestindy wrote:
chrisair wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Yeah, I've flown on 3 different trips this summer, and kids & families were almost non-existent at airports


Curious what the demographics were?


For context one was early-mid June to TPA, one was July 4th to DEN, last one was 1st week of Aug ORD/SEA/SLC/BZN

The largest groups I saw within airports were solo travelers & lots of couples(young newly wed types + empty nesters).

Within solo travelers there were a surprising amount of minors....not sure why. Don't know the exact % obviously, but I believe around 70% of my flights had unaccompanied minors, which is pretty rare.

If I did see families within the airport it was usually with kids under the age of 4-5, but there just aren't many families flying right now. There were plenty of families at the destinations, but that is because most families are driving right now.

chrisair wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Only other options this winter for leisure are ski resorts & Arizona


Arizona is full. Don’t come to Arizona.

:lol:

32andBelow wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Yeah, I've flown on 3 different trips this summer, and kids & families were almost non-existent at airports

Florida is going to be wild this winter, where else can people even go? B6/UA/NK/F9 have already announced new routes & expansions to Florida for this winter. I can only imagine AA & DL have something planned as well.

Only other options this winter for leisure are ski resorts & Arizona

Ski season is going to start up. I bet the Bahamas will open for winter. Can they afford not to?


Skiing is niche though, especially since for most of the midwest/northeast, the point of winter vacation is to escape the snow. There is a reason why flights are so limited to ski resort areas.

Even if Bahamas & the Caribbean are open, the booking window for international (even short-haul int'l) is longer than domestic, and with uncertainty around international restrictions you are going to have difficulty finding a significant amount of demand for Caribbean travel.

The booking window doesn’t have to be long for East coast Caribbean. And I think Denver and Salt Lake City get plenty of service. LOL.
 
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Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 6288
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 15, 2020 1:02 am

32andBelow wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
chrisair wrote:

Curious what the demographics were?


For context one was early-mid June to TPA, one was July 4th to DEN, last one was 1st week of Aug ORD/SEA/SLC/BZN

The largest groups I saw within airports were solo travelers & lots of couples(young newly wed types + empty nesters).

Within solo travelers there were a surprising amount of minors....not sure why. Don't know the exact % obviously, but I believe around 70% of my flights had unaccompanied minors, which is pretty rare.

If I did see families within the airport it was usually with kids under the age of 4-5, but there just aren't many families flying right now. There were plenty of families at the destinations, but that is because most families are driving right now.

chrisair wrote:


Arizona is full. Don’t come to Arizona.

:lol:

32andBelow wrote:
Ski season is going to start up. I bet the Bahamas will open for winter. Can they afford not to?


Skiing is niche though, especially since for most of the midwest/northeast, the point of winter vacation is to escape the snow. There is a reason why flights are so limited to ski resort areas.

Even if Bahamas & the Caribbean are open, the booking window for international (even short-haul int'l) is longer than domestic, and with uncertainty around international restrictions you are going to have difficulty finding a significant amount of demand for Caribbean travel.

The booking window doesn’t have to be long for East coast Caribbean. And I think Denver and Salt Lake City get plenty of service. LOL.


That still doesn't account for passenger uncertainty in international travel

Nov-Feb are the slowest months of the year for O&D to SLC/DEN, not to mention most us ski resorts aren't even a reasonable drive from DEN/SLC in the winter
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5693
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 15, 2020 1:56 am

Midwestindy wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

For context one was early-mid June to TPA, one was July 4th to DEN, last one was 1st week of Aug ORD/SEA/SLC/BZN

The largest groups I saw within airports were solo travelers & lots of couples(young newly wed types + empty nesters).

Within solo travelers there were a surprising amount of minors....not sure why. Don't know the exact % obviously, but I believe around 70% of my flights had unaccompanied minors, which is pretty rare.

If I did see families within the airport it was usually with kids under the age of 4-5, but there just aren't many families flying right now. There were plenty of families at the destinations, but that is because most families are driving right now.


:lol:



Skiing is niche though, especially since for most of the midwest/northeast, the point of winter vacation is to escape the snow. There is a reason why flights are so limited to ski resort areas.

Even if Bahamas & the Caribbean are open, the booking window for international (even short-haul int'l) is longer than domestic, and with uncertainty around international restrictions you are going to have difficulty finding a significant amount of demand for Caribbean travel.

The booking window doesn’t have to be long for East coast Caribbean. And I think Denver and Salt Lake City get plenty of service. LOL.


That still doesn't account for passenger uncertainty in international travel

Nov-Feb are the slowest months of the year for O&D to SLC/DEN, not to mention most us ski resorts aren't even a reasonable drive from DEN/SLC in the winter

Yes they are. Salt lake is really close. Most people don’t fly into vail or aspen
 
KlimaBXsst
Posts: 1000
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:14 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 15, 2020 2:59 am

Cedar wrote:
For those that have debated you or claim that we need to control the spread - I invite them to take a look at the CDC data. link attached.
This alone explains the whole story. https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-C ... -hcku/data

Note - the comparison of total deaths between COVID & PNEUMONIA (1st & 3rd column) - why is the Pnemonia spread not being controlled or tested then.

The rest of the columns are per CDC "people who have died with other illness but also tested positive for COVID"

Cedar


Be careful providing solid reliable pneumonia data comparisons. Certain factions may want to ban you for a week, or mask you with a $3000 fine. (;

Thank you for this reference.
 
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Midwestindy
Topic Author
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 15, 2020 1:40 pm

32andBelow wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
The booking window doesn’t have to be long for East coast Caribbean. And I think Denver and Salt Lake City get plenty of service. LOL.


That still doesn't account for passenger uncertainty in international travel

Nov-Feb are the slowest months of the year for O&D to SLC/DEN, not to mention most us ski resorts aren't even a reasonable drive from DEN/SLC in the winter

Yes they are. Salt lake is really close. Most people don’t fly into vail or aspen


I'm not even going to go down this rabbit hole, look at the visitor numbers for all the Colorado ski resorts and compare it to Florida let alone just MIA, FLL, TPA, or MCO.

To put it in perspective, combine all the total visitors to all the major ski resorts in Colorado during the winter, and is still lower than the amount of visitors TPA(not even including Clearwater) alone handles during the same time frame....

"Ski Country announced Thursday that its member resorts, including Steamboat, reported a combined 7.1 million visits"
Add in Vail you get an additional 1.6m, so rounding up you get around 9M visits from Nov-Apr
https://www.steamboatpilot.com/news/ski ... -colorado/
https://www.curbed.com/2017/7/27/159654 ... n-colorado

TPA alone had 24.5M last year, or roughly 14M from Nov-Apr given that is peak season
https://www.visittampabay.com/media/new ... n-in-2019/
 
pezzy669
Posts: 220
Joined: Sun Oct 28, 2012 10:30 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 15, 2020 2:09 pm

Just as my 2 cents into here - last week the company I worked for has given the green light to our traveling employees to begin travel again if they feel comfortable with it. While we are not a huge company by any means we have ~20 employees who will plow through about 20-30 round trips a year each to travel to our out of state properties that are beyond driving distance, of my regular interactions with a large number of these employees they are all itching to get back on the road. It was within days of the green light was given that our work travel calendar exploded with ~75% of them booking travel.

Our business (commercial real estate) pretty much cannot function virtually with our operations managers and leasing agents. During the travel kibosh we tried a local 3rd party approach but it seems as though the owner was not a fan as the 3rd party folks did not have the same ownership mentality of the assets that has been ingrained in every employee within our organization and our assets suffered greatly over the past 5 months.

While I don't know how many companies may be taking the same approach I am sure there are some that may be taking the same approach.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5693
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 15, 2020 3:16 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

That still doesn't account for passenger uncertainty in international travel

Nov-Feb are the slowest months of the year for O&D to SLC/DEN, not to mention most us ski resorts aren't even a reasonable drive from DEN/SLC in the winter

Yes they are. Salt lake is really close. Most people don’t fly into vail or aspen


I'm not even going to go down this rabbit hole, look at the visitor numbers for all the Colorado ski resorts and compare it to Florida let alone just MIA, FLL, TPA, or MCO.

To put it in perspective, combine all the total visitors to all the major ski resorts in Colorado during the winter, and is still lower than the amount of visitors TPA(not even including Clearwater) alone handles during the same time frame....

"Ski Country announced Thursday that its member resorts, including Steamboat, reported a combined 7.1 million visits"
Add in Vail you get an additional 1.6m, so rounding up you get around 9M visits from Nov-Apr
https://www.steamboatpilot.com/news/ski ... -colorado/
https://www.curbed.com/2017/7/27/159654 ... n-colorado

TPA alone had 24.5M last year, or roughly 14M from Nov-Apr given that is peak season
https://www.visittampabay.com/media/new ... n-in-2019/

Yeah I’m not saying it’s going to be bigger than Florida. Or that any of this is normal. I’m just saying that if Florida gets turned off (which I don’t think it will). Then there other leisure opportunities. This is certainly going to be the year for domestic vacationing.
 
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Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 6288
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Aug 16, 2020 4:58 pm

https://investor.alaskaair.com/static-f ... ab765b2793

AS lowering August cash burn guidance on increased ticket sales, $25M improvement vs. June & $50M improvement vs. July
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 5213
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Aug 16, 2020 5:29 pm

Honestly 15% sounds low to me. The technology is there to replace alot of travel that happened in 2019. I would bet we see most large corporations at 25% less travel after this is all over. Some tech industries I see more than 25% easily

My company has banned all travel till July 1 2021 and rumor is if things don't improve no travel for 2021 is coming before the End of this year. My company is saving millions on travel each month, and not looking to add that expense back. Trips will be looked at a lot harder to justify "essential". None of our clients want on site visits either, and most are not even in their offices. I see this effecting the big 3 legacies more then anyone else and united was smart to add that Florida leisure stuff as alot of their business routes will be dead for a while.

Business travel might have a permanent hit here, but leisure I do think will hit new highs pretty soon after this is over and people feel safe to fly. Will take years but I see leisure roaring back as people have been couped up, they just want to get out. Obviously not until post vaccine and they feel safe. Business travel though will never hit it's 2019 numbers. Airlines will need to shift some resources to leisure
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5693
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Aug 16, 2020 6:47 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Honestly 15% sounds low to me. The technology is there to replace alot of travel that happened in 2019. I would bet we see most large corporations at 25% less travel after this is all over. Some tech industries I see more than 25% easily

My company has banned all travel till July 1 2021 and rumor is if things don't improve no travel for 2021 is coming before the End of this year. My company is saving millions on travel each month, and not looking to add that expense back. Trips will be looked at a lot harder to justify "essential". None of our clients want on site visits either, and most are not even in their offices. I see this effecting the big 3 legacies more then anyone else and united was smart to add that Florida leisure stuff as alot of their business routes will be dead for a while.

Business travel might have a permanent hit here, but leisure I do think will hit new highs pretty soon after this is over and people feel safe to fly. Will take years but I see leisure roaring back as people have been couped up, they just want to get out. Obviously not until post vaccine and they feel safe. Business travel though will never hit it's 2019 numbers. Airlines will need to shift some resources to leisure

It’s never been the technical aspect. It’s always been the social aspect of selling and servicing things face to face. Not to mention just schmoozing and going to conventions.

This technology has been around long before 2020.
 
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Midwestindy
Topic Author
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Aug 16, 2020 11:27 pm

12% of all US reservations are to Florida over Labor Day weekend vs. 4% last year

https://www.tripit.com/web/labor-day-weekend-travel/
Image
Image

Ignore the spelling of Fort Myers.....
Image
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5693
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Aug 16, 2020 11:50 pm

Wow people are going to Mexico?
 
User avatar
75driver
Posts: 147
Joined: Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:02 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Aug 17, 2020 2:10 am

Midwestindy wrote:
12% of all US reservations are to Florida over Labor Day weekend vs. 4% last year


Ignore the spelling of Fort Myers.....


Any idea about the source of these graphs? ie: who is tripit? Are they authoritative? Seems numbers that show traffic 3 times last year are questionable at best.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5693
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Aug 17, 2020 2:27 am

75driver wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
12% of all US reservations are to Florida over Labor Day weekend vs. 4% last year


Ignore the spelling of Fort Myers.....


Any idea about the source of these graphs? ie: who is tripit? Are they authoritative? Seems numbers that show traffic 3 times last year are questionable at best.

It looks like it’s ranking top booking destinations. Not year over year increases. They are all probably Down bigly
 
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Midwestindy
Topic Author
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Aug 17, 2020 2:30 am

75driver wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
12% of all US reservations are to Florida over Labor Day weekend vs. 4% last year


Ignore the spelling of Fort Myers.....


Any idea about the source of these graphs? ie: who is tripit? Are they authoritative? Seems numbers that show traffic 3 times last year are questionable at best.


I think you are reading that wrong, that doesn't mean bookings increased 3 fold, it just means Florida is making up a larger share of a smaller pie.

Example: Hypothetically if total bookings last year were 1,000, and 40 of those were to Florida that would mean Florida had 4% of bookings. Hypothetically this year total bookings were 200, and 24 of those were to Florida that would mean Florida was 12% of bookings. Bookings are still down everywhere (LDW down 66% compared to 2019), but Florida's share of those bookings drastically increased.

Tripit is owned by Concur, which is one of the largest travel management companies, which is owned by SAP(~$30B USD). The numbers are legitimate, this report was cited by numerous publications.
https://www.travelandleisure.com/travel ... ida-hawaii
https://www.businessinsider.com/labor-d ... ida-2020-8
https://www.ft.com/content/c0dcd52d-cfd ... 6b3c2f9f60
https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/n ... li=BBnbklE
 
User avatar
75driver
Posts: 147
Joined: Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:02 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Aug 17, 2020 2:44 am

32andBelow wrote:

It looks like it’s ranking top booking destinations. Not year over year increases. They are all probably Down bigly


Midwestindy wrote:
Tripit is owned by Concur, which is one of the largest travel management companies, which is owned by SAP(~$30B USD). The numbers are legitimate, this report was cited by numerous publications.


Thanks fellas. I find myself questioning the decision to accept an early retirement and when I see an “increase” somewhere it only adds to my consternation about doing so. I’m still comfortable in what I decided and hope the industry recovers beyond what I thought but I can’t shake the feeling I might have been wrong.

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