PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:A theme I mentioned up-thread is that we are actually at a point now for the foreseeable future, that there is more certainty now in people's lives than there has been at any point since March. For the most part people now have an idea what their personal situation, workplace situation, school/educational situation looks like through the fall. Even all through August many people had no idea if they would still be work remote, if schools were going to be remote or in-person, youth sports, etc. and frankly a lot of that got cobbled together and sorted out at the 11th hour in late August.
With more certainty, and the safety net now of no change fees, we are probably now starting to see more forward bookings and people advanced planning trips. The spike in 16-30 days is starting to get more in line with historic demand curves. The amount of close-in leisure bookings we saw over the summer was highly abnormal, but with the way things were advanced planning was difficult with all the fear and uncertainty.
This makes sense to me. It's certainly part of the equation. But I would note if there were still significant fear of COVID, no amount of personal certainty could convince anyone to get on a plane.
"Certainty" is one of life's great triumphs: one reason why it is so rare...