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williaminsd
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:32 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
A theme I mentioned up-thread is that we are actually at a point now for the foreseeable future, that there is more certainty now in people's lives than there has been at any point since March. For the most part people now have an idea what their personal situation, workplace situation, school/educational situation looks like through the fall. Even all through August many people had no idea if they would still be work remote, if schools were going to be remote or in-person, youth sports, etc. and frankly a lot of that got cobbled together and sorted out at the 11th hour in late August.

With more certainty, and the safety net now of no change fees, we are probably now starting to see more forward bookings and people advanced planning trips. The spike in 16-30 days is starting to get more in line with historic demand curves. The amount of close-in leisure bookings we saw over the summer was highly abnormal, but with the way things were advanced planning was difficult with all the fear and uncertainty.


This makes sense to me. It's certainly part of the equation. But I would note if there were still significant fear of COVID, no amount of personal certainty could convince anyone to get on a plane.

"Certainty" is one of life's great triumphs: one reason why it is so rare...
 
Miamiairport
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:23 pm

Well I see "Now things are coming back" but I don't think this was mean't to say things are returning to normal. That being said I think there some posters that are overly optimistic about the next 3-6 months. Still a lot of headwinds both virus and economic wise. Another 841,000 alone filed for Unemployment last week.

Right now airlines have expensive airplanes to maintain many of them with lease/equipment financing attached. Cash right now is King more than profit and hence the fares designed to stimulate leisure travel. However, there is no shortage of people still afraid of getting on a plane and/or afraid of losing a job. I'm not sure how much more demand can be generated from $39 fares and no change fees. We shall see.
 
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75driver
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:24 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
Well I see "Now things are coming back" but I don't think this was mean't to say things are returning to normal.


The literal meaning of “coming back” is returning to where you started. I’ve got way too many friends and colleagues hopeful for another bailout or expecting some epiphany that will return them to service. We’re recovering, to what level and extent is the great mystery. Airlines don’t jettison VEOP’s with 9 years and 4 months left till mandatory (me) if their brain trusts and bean counters don’t believe there is considerable chop ahead. I’m sure they also looked at the cost of keeping high pay scale drivers on property too, because as recovery develops they’ll hire more cost effective replacements. Another topic in itself but every indication is pointing to something very different in the long term from what was once considered normal. These booking numbers support that hypothesis where minimal evidence exists supporting the opposite.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:17 pm

75driver wrote:
I don’t get the impression anyone wished or hoped for Armageddon. We’ve already realized Armageddon and it’s now the aftermath of recovery. What does seem odd is many thinking we went through some blip and it’s all coming back to normal. These booking numbers don’t indicate anything near normal nor do butts in the seats. The biggest reveal to come is exactly what we’re coming back to. All indicators point to something quite a bit different than the past.

I still think airlines are not doing enough to promote how safe air travel is but that’s another topic.


Not sure why this subject is so touchy for people....it is a booking trends thread.

As has been reiterated numerous times, no one believes we are at normal levels yet.

With respect to the Armageddon point, not to say they wished for it, but there were a number of posts on a.net in July/August indicating we would see a return to April/May levels in the fall
 
chrisair
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:57 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
With respect to the Armageddon point, not to say they wished for it, but there were a number of posts on a.net in July/August indicating we would see a return to April/May levels in the fall


This an evolving situation that changes by the weeks, days and hours. Booking trends/data shows one piece of the picture. TSA checkpoint numbers show another. Economic data shows a third. I don’t think anyone here wishes for Armageddon. I just wish people would listen to science and wear a mask and realize that a vaccine isn’t going to cure the airline industry the minute it’s available. We’d be so much better off.

I for one, was a bit more pessimistic in the early summer than I currently am. I attended a virtual conference yesterday with a couple economists from some west coast states. “We’re by no means out of the woods, but things are looking better than before and trending in the right direction” was the gist of the message. Of course, this doesn’t mean air travel will recover anytime soon.

@Midwestindy I’m sure it’s been explained in here somewhere, but what do the numbers on the Y axis on your graph represent?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:06 pm

For those curious, those graphs are domestic only because international data lags. This is only updated through Aug 31:

Demand to short-haul like Mexico is recovering much more quickly than major US int'l markets like the UK & Canada, with both still at rock bottom.
Image
Image
Image
https://public.tableau.com/profile/the. ... ublish=yes

chrisair wrote:
@Midwestindy I’m sure it’s been explained in here somewhere, but what do the numbers on the Y axis on your graph represent?


Depends which graph you are referring to:

"Flight volume by purpose", is showing the relative booking volume of flight bookings relative to January 2, 2020, with Jan 2 = 100. With each set of bookings (e.g., leisure solo) being indexed relative to itself
    -Easiest to interpret

The ones that are split up by "Trip Purpose" are slightly different, All of the bookings are indexed to 91+ days advanced booking for that segment on Jan 2 (e.g. leisure family, leisure solo or couples)
    -Shows the weight of certain bookings for each segment, (e.g. 91+ days is a large portion of Family bookings)

It's not necessarily a perfect representation, because you can't tell what these graphics mean on a YOY basis, that's why I supplemented with YOY booking comparisons as well.
 
tphuang
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:25 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
For those curious, those graphs are domestic only because international data lags. This is only updated through Aug 31:

Demand to short-haul like Mexico is recovering much more quickly than major US int'l markets like the UK & Canada, with both still at rock bottom.
Image
Image
Image
https://public.tableau.com/profile/the. ... ublish=yes

chrisair wrote:
@Midwestindy I’m sure it’s been explained in here somewhere, but what do the numbers on the Y axis on your graph represent?


Depends which graph you are referring to:

"Flight volume by purpose", is showing the relative booking volume of flight bookings relative to January 2, 2020, with Jan 2 = 100. With each set of bookings (e.g., leisure solo) being indexed relative to itself
    -Easiest to interpret

The ones that are split up by "Trip Purpose" are slightly different, All of the bookings are indexed to 91+ days advanced booking for that segment on Jan 2 (e.g. leisure family, leisure solo or couples)
    -Shows the weight of certain bookings for each segment, (e.g. 91+ days is a large portion of Family bookings)

It's not necessarily a perfect representation, because you can't tell what these graphics mean on a YOY basis, that's why I supplemented with YOY booking comparisons as well.


UK and Canada have travel ban for US visitors still. Mexico does not. I'm surprised some of these travel bans to Caribbean countries are still in place considering how much local economy relies on US tourism dollars.

Based on JetBlue CEO said, CUN, MBJ and AUA have seen the best recovery in demand thus far. Which is why you saw a lot of CUN/MBJ stuff in their recent route announcements.

Also, the top international demand recovery have been VFR stuff to DR.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:56 pm

Antidotally, I know of 2 couples who ended-up postponing their weddings that were to have been traditional big gathering/receptions here in the states and ended up doing a small family destination wedding in CUN. I think word has gotten out that small-destination weddings in Mexico are good to go, so that could be a mini-boom this winter.

Hawaii easing their restrictions on October with advanced testing will be a nice bump to demand really going into the holiday season and for next winter.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:57 pm

784,000 for a Thursday pretty good. Might match or top Labor Day
 
chrisair
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:09 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
"Flight volume by purpose", is showing the relative booking volume of flight bookings relative to January 2, 2020, with Jan 2 = 100. With each set of bookings (e.g., leisure solo) being indexed relative to itself


That's the one I was confused about. I don't quite know what the 100 means. Sorry for a noob question. It just stuck out at me the other day when I looked at that chart and realized I have no clue what that axis represents.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:58 pm

A sizable amount of demand is suppressed right now not because of fear of Covid on an airplane, its because the reasons for travel isn’t there. Border closures, governmental restrictions, corporate travel bans, mandatory WFH/WFA, all large scale events cancelled, etc.

It’s not just irrational fear, it’s the whole picture in totality.

There are a lot more people that are not afraid to fly or would fly a lot more once all those things become feasible again.

Agree the bookings are getting better as everyone said they should,
But the above will trigger step function increases.

At least advanced bookings are returning as there is the most consumer / passenger confidence as there has been since March.
 
kimimm19
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:07 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
A sizable amount of demand is suppressed right now not because of fear of Covid on an airplane, its because the reasons for travel isn’t there. Border closures, governmental restrictions, corporate travel bans, mandatory WFH/WFA, all large scale events cancelled, etc.

It’s not just irrational fear, it’s the whole picture in totality.

There are a lot more people that are not afraid to fly or would fly a lot more once all those things become feasible again.

Agree the bookings are getting better as everyone said they should,
But the above will trigger step function increases.

At least advanced bookings are returning as there is the most consumer / passenger confidence as there has been since March.


That and the insanity of what it's like to fly right now. Friends from the UK will understand. It's militant, police everywhere, compulsory masks throughout, etc...

Complete misery having to travel right now, coming from a aviation enthusiast myself.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:10 pm

When did tsa stArt updating on the weekend again
 
williaminsd
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:14 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
A sizable amount of demand is suppressed right now not because of fear of Covid on an airplane, its because the reasons for travel isn’t there. Border closures, governmental restrictions, corporate travel bans, mandatory WFH/WFA, all large scale events cancelled, etc.

It’s not just irrational fear, it’s the whole picture in totality.

There are a lot more people that are not afraid to fly or would fly a lot more once all those things become feasible again.

Agree the bookings are getting better as everyone said they should,
But the above will trigger step function increases.

At least advanced bookings are returning as there is the most consumer / passenger confidence as there has been since March.


I think you're right. It's complex. The factors I cite above are just two of the many reasons. They are critical, but just a part of the equation.

The good news is the trends are pointing up. That's not "happy talk," (as some call it) that's fact...

Complete misery having to travel right now, coming from a aviation enthusiast myself


There us some truth to this as well. Not sure I'd go as far as "misery," but the present experience makes you miss February very much...
Last edited by williaminsd on Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:05 pm

Just a reminder that political discussion is not permitted outside of the Non Aviation Forum, which includes attacks on politically charged subjects like media coverage. This is an aviation forum, not the place to push your political viewpoints. Furthermore, anecdotes, while interesting, are not indicative of booking trends. Please stick to discussing facts rather than anecdotes or conjecture.

✈️ atcsundevil

-----------------------------------------------------

Here are some traffic counts for Tuesday, Sept. 15. These are not indicative of booking trends per say, but traffic counts are related.

Aviation System Performance Metrics
ASPM77 Airport Ops: (-43.9%) / 31,385 ops; 55,938 seasonal avg.
Core Airport Ops: (-55%) / 17,709 ops; 35,958 seasonal avg.
Center Ops: (-43.3%) var from baseline / 68,601 current ops
Top 7 TRACONS: (-38.9%) var from baseline / 19,381 current ops

Traffic counts are down on average 13-18% from July's post start of COVID peak, with an additional 5-10% decrease projected for October based on published airline schedules.

Source: FAA
 
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2nd2none
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Sep 20, 2020 7:45 pm

32andBelow wrote:
When did tsa stArt updating on the weekend again


Probably because someone realized the only realiable numbers to be used by the financial sector, was the TSA figures, they are pure without nonsense, and extremely valuable! And that is why my interest in these numbers!
 
sldispatcher
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:18 pm

Anecdotally, the seat map occupancy has really been shooting up in September at my home station (SHV) compared to the prior 3 months. It's like the spigot has been turned back on. I'll be leaving on Oct 9 again. I'll be interested to see what the parking lot looks like. It was a bit healthier filled during my August trip but nowhere near this time last year. Of course, number of flights is not where it used to be either, so I know there are still fewer people just on packed onto fewer flights, but it's still more bodies than what was leaving for the 3 months prior. I would imagine that varies wildly city by city/state by state as the numbers bear out, but it has to start somewhere.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:04 pm

2nd2none wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
When did tsa stArt updating on the weekend again


Probably because someone realized the only realiable numbers to be used by the financial sector, was the TSA figures, they are pure without nonsense, and extremely valuable! And that is why my interest in these numbers!


:lol: Wall Street isn't using TSA numbers, they have internal data/research divisions who have access to airline booking information, and frequently have private calls with airlines on passenger demand.
 
TW870
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:11 pm

kimimm19 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
A sizable amount of demand is suppressed right now not because of fear of Covid on an airplane, its because the reasons for travel isn’t there. Border closures, governmental restrictions, corporate travel bans, mandatory WFH/WFA, all large scale events cancelled, etc.

It’s not just irrational fear, it’s the whole picture in totality.

There are a lot more people that are not afraid to fly or would fly a lot more once all those things become feasible again.

Agree the bookings are getting better as everyone said they should,
But the above will trigger step function increases.

At least advanced bookings are returning as there is the most consumer / passenger confidence as there has been since March.


That and the insanity of what it's like to fly right now. Friends from the UK will understand. It's militant, police everywhere, compulsory masks throughout, etc...

Complete misery having to travel right now, coming from a aviation enthusiast myself.


I disagree completely at least for the USA side of the Atlantic. I have flown two trips and eight legs recently all on Delta and DCI carriers. It is very organized, and actually much more comfortable for most of the experience than before Covid. Clubs are much less jammed, gates have plenty of space for every passenger to sit down. With middle seats open, there is ample carry on space, and the airplane is cooler and more comfortable with fewer bodies jammed inside. For folks lucky enough to be up front it is obviously less desirable than it was before, as you don't get the nice inflight service, meal choice etc. But it is more spacious than before. I fully understand that it is unsustainable financially, and I understand that other carriers are already jamming folks back in, but I think it is the wider limitations (indoor dining dangers, no fun events/concerts, border closures) that are discouraging air travel, not the experience itself.
 
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OzarkD9S
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:22 pm

TW870 wrote:

I think it is the wider limitations (indoor dining dangers, no fun events/concerts, border closures) that are discouraging air travel, not the experience itself.


Pretty much sums up my current attitude about traveling right now. It would be great to go somewhere, but what do I do when I get there? Staying put for a while longer, not going to spend money on a half-baked vacation just to "get away".
 
brilondon
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:08 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
For those curious, those graphs are domestic only because international data lags. This is only updated through Aug 31:

Demand to short-haul like Mexico is recovering much more quickly than major US int'l markets like the UK & Canada, with both still at rock bottom.
Image
Image
Image
https://public.tableau.com/profile/the. ... ublish=yes

chrisair wrote:
@Midwestindy I’m sure it’s been explained in here somewhere, but what do the numbers on the Y axis on your graph represent?


Depends which graph you are referring to:

"Flight volume by purpose", is showing the relative booking volume of flight bookings relative to January 2, 2020, with Jan 2 = 100. With each set of bookings (e.g., leisure solo) being indexed relative to itself
    -Easiest to interpret

The ones that are split up by "Trip Purpose" are slightly different, All of the bookings are indexed to 91+ days advanced booking for that segment on Jan 2 (e.g. leisure family, leisure solo or couples)
    -Shows the weight of certain bookings for each segment, (e.g. 91+ days is a large portion of Family bookings)

It's not necessarily a perfect representation, because you can't tell what these graphics mean on a YOY basis, that's why I supplemented with YOY booking comparisons as well.


You will not see any increase in Canada as the restrictions on US travellers have now been extended until the end of October. Canadians are also restricted to travel to the US. Canadians are allowed to go to Europe but upon returning home to Canada you must quarantine for 14 days.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:20 pm

Has anyone seen the booking trends for the past 2 weeks? If so can you share please?
 
Dominion301
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:40 pm

brilondon wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
For those curious, those graphs are domestic only because international data lags. This is only updated through Aug 31:

Demand to short-haul like Mexico is recovering much more quickly than major US int'l markets like the UK & Canada, with both still at rock bottom.
Image
Image
Image
https://public.tableau.com/profile/the. ... ublish=yes

chrisair wrote:
@Midwestindy I’m sure it’s been explained in here somewhere, but what do the numbers on the Y axis on your graph represent?


Depends which graph you are referring to:

"Flight volume by purpose", is showing the relative booking volume of flight bookings relative to January 2, 2020, with Jan 2 = 100. With each set of bookings (e.g., leisure solo) being indexed relative to itself
    -Easiest to interpret

The ones that are split up by "Trip Purpose" are slightly different, All of the bookings are indexed to 91+ days advanced booking for that segment on Jan 2 (e.g. leisure family, leisure solo or couples)
    -Shows the weight of certain bookings for each segment, (e.g. 91+ days is a large portion of Family bookings)

It's not necessarily a perfect representation, because you can't tell what these graphics mean on a YOY basis, that's why I supplemented with YOY booking comparisons as well.


You will not see any increase in Canada as the restrictions on US travellers have now been extended until the end of October. Canadians are also restricted to travel to the US. Canadians are allowed to go to Europe but upon returning home to Canada you must quarantine for 14 days.


The Canadian border restrictions will be in place for a long time. While still proportionally on a fraction of the US, our numbers are trending in the wrong direction. Some transborder routes are slowly returning. For example YOW is getting its first transborder flight since late June with the return of YOW-IAD on UA 5x weekly.
 
KirkSeattle
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:37 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Has anyone seen the booking trends for the past 2 weeks? If so can you share please?


Here's the link. You'll have to do the math. Bleak at best.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

EDIT: Sorry, these are TSA numbers, not booking trends.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:53 pm

KirkSeattle wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
Has anyone seen the booking trends for the past 2 weeks? If so can you share please?


Here's the link. You'll have to do the math. Bleak at best.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

EDIT: Sorry, these are TSA numbers, not booking trends.

It’s not bleak. Everyone said there would be a huge drop off in September and that hasn’t happened
 
Insertnamehere
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Sep 21, 2020 12:43 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Antidotally, I know of 2 couples who ended-up postponing their weddings that were to have been traditional big gathering/receptions here in the states and ended up doing a small family destination wedding in CUN. I think word has gotten out that small-destination weddings in Mexico are good to go, so that could be a mini-boom this winter.

Hawaii easing their restrictions on October with advanced testing will be a nice bump to demand really going into the holiday season and for next winter.


I think Mexico and the Carribean are going to be the real winners in this situation, with less Americans flying to Europe due to COVID restrictions, we will probably see more people going south of the border.

Anecdotally, I was in Tulum which is about an hour and a half away from CUN and it was booming in terms of people as Americans flocked there for a more normal experience outside of COVID.
 
tphuang
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Sep 21, 2020 12:50 am

32andBelow wrote:
KirkSeattle wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
Has anyone seen the booking trends for the past 2 weeks? If so can you share please?


Here's the link. You'll have to do the math. Bleak at best.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

EDIT: Sorry, these are TSA numbers, not booking trends.

It’s not bleak. Everyone said there would be a huge drop off in September and that hasn’t happened


If you have time to wait for things to rebound to 70% of 2019 levels, it's not bleak. If you are an airline employee about to get furloughed in October, things are indeed bleak. I think it's quite clear that leisure demand is rebounding in a sustained manner. Airlines themselves are cautious to be overly optimistic due to what happened in July. I think there will be some vacation spots that will see more demand than previous years due to changing travel patterns. It's just up to airlines to figure out what those places are and how aggressive to lower prices.

Just to pick the airline that I follow the most as an example. JetBlue made the agreement for no furlough until May for its pilots because it's anticipating a major explosion in leisure demand by spring of next year. Maybe they are optimistic, but I tend to think all the LCCs/ULCCs are going to take some chances next year to eat up big 3 market share.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Sep 21, 2020 12:58 am

tphuang wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
KirkSeattle wrote:

Here's the link. You'll have to do the math. Bleak at best.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

EDIT: Sorry, these are TSA numbers, not booking trends.

It’s not bleak. Everyone said there would be a huge drop off in September and that hasn’t happened


If you have time to wait for things to rebound to 70% of 2019 levels, it's not bleak. If you are an airline employee about to get furloughed in October, things are indeed bleak. I think it's quite clear that leisure demand is rebounding in a sustained manner. Airlines themselves are cautious to be overly optimistic due to what happened in July. I think there will be some vacation spots that will see more demand than previous years due to changing travel patterns. It's just up to airlines to figure out what those places are and how aggressive to lower prices.

Just to pick the airline that I follow the most as an example. JetBlue made the agreement for no furlough until May for its pilots because it's anticipating a major explosion in leisure demand by spring of next year. Maybe they are optimistic, but I tend to think all the LCCs/ULCCs are going to take some chances next year to eat up big 3 market share.

I think staying at 800k plus is better than going back to 200k like some predicted. Should be well over a million for the holidays. 70% for summer 21 is doable.

Obviously it sucks to be an airline employee right now. And I think airlines that hang on to flight crew will be rewarded next year.
 
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2nd2none
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Sep 21, 2020 6:48 am

Midwestindy wrote:
2nd2none wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
When did tsa stArt updating on the weekend again


Probably because someone realized the only realiable numbers to be used by the financial sector, was the TSA figures, they are pure without nonsense, and extremely valuable! And that is why my interest in these numbers!


:lol: Wall Street isn't using TSA numbers, they have internal data/research divisions who have access to airline booking information, and frequently have private calls with airlines on passenger demand.


Sick kind of humor!. But I can tell from where I sit the TSA numbers are seen as the most reliable.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Sep 21, 2020 3:37 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Has anyone seen the booking trends for the past 2 weeks? If so can you share please?


No drop off since Labor Day spike, starting to see some small movement in the corporate space, but still lagging way behind online

Image
https://www2.arccorp.com/about-us/newsr ... r-20-2020/
 
baje427
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:48 pm

Insertnamehere wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Antidotally, I know of 2 couples who ended-up postponing their weddings that were to have been traditional big gathering/receptions here in the states and ended up doing a small family destination wedding in CUN. I think word has gotten out that small-destination weddings in Mexico are good to go, so that could be a mini-boom this winter.

Hawaii easing their restrictions on October with advanced testing will be a nice bump to demand really going into the holiday season and for next winter.


I think Mexico and the Carribean are going to be the real winners in this situation, with less Americans flying to Europe due to COVID restrictions, we will probably see more people going south of the border.

Anecdotally, I was in Tulum which is about an hour and a half away from CUN and it was booming in terms of people as Americans flocked there for a more normal experience outside of COVID.

They will benefit until the cases start rising in Mexico and the Caribbean.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6483
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Sep 21, 2020 8:51 pm

Does anyone have data by airline hub for capacity now vs. 2019 YOY?
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1966
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Sep 21, 2020 9:01 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
Does anyone have data by airline hub for capacity now vs. 2019 YOY?


I think everyone is around 40%.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Sep 21, 2020 9:12 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
Does anyone have data by airline hub for capacity now vs. 2019 YOY?


This?

*Not up-to-date with this weekends changes
Image

https://myemail.constantcontact.com/Ail ... zi-90sIEkY
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6483
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Sep 21, 2020 10:14 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
Does anyone have data by airline hub for capacity now vs. 2019 YOY?


This?

*Not up-to-date with this weekends changes
Image

https://myemail.constantcontact.com/Ail ... zi-90sIEkY


Perfect! Thanks!
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:25 pm

 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:27 pm

Midwestindy wrote:

Wow covid canceled in Dallas!
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:57 pm

*Issues with SF & SEA data, please ignore SF & SEA for now

Image

https://www.kalibrilabs.com/industry-health
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6483
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:57 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
*Issues with SF & SEA data, please ignore SF & SEA for now

Image

https://www.kalibrilabs.com/industry-health


Is there similar info for Houston?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:10 pm

https://viewfromthewing.com/american-ai ... facturing/

AA 15% of normal corporate bookings

And there’s “a lot more consumer willingness to travel especially in the South and Midwest.” These are “small and medium-sized business[es]” in “cities that are smaller cities, Tulsa or Oklahoma City” rather than “places like New York or San Francisco which were the big meccas of large corporate travel.”

LAXdude1023 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
*Issues with SF & SEA data, please ignore SF & SEA for now

Image

https://www.kalibrilabs.com/industry-health


Is there similar info for Houston?


In general tracking the same as Dallas with IAH/HOU slightly better.

This is October for example:
Image
https://www.sojern.com/covid-19-insights/#report
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:59 pm

As expected hawaii bookings are reacting positively to the news:
Image
https://www.sojern.com/covid-19-insights/#report

This week bookings were flat/slightly down week-over-week, but I would assume it will be a yoy increase. Lots of growth in the 61-90 day segment, 0-15 slowed but I expect to see an increase next week, as fall break travel gets booked:

Image
Image
Image
https://adara.com/traveler-trends-tracker/
 
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2nd2none
Posts: 136
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:05 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:10 pm

Total Traveler Throughput numbers fra TSA show that the average throughput from Sunday to Wednesday this week is 5.21 % above the thoughput same days last week.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:24 pm

Regarding Hawaii: there are a lot of time share owners that have weeks that are about to expire. Hawaii would be a good use for them
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:57 pm

Below is what is causing numbers to stay to stay up/slightly increase, even in traditional off-peak season

https://thepointsguy.com/guide/stretch-season-travel/

"Summer’s not over yet: ‘Stretch season’ travel is latest trend spurred by pandemic"

“Because summer vacation plans were canceled for many U.S. travelers due to travel restrictions, we’ve observed a marked uptick in people extending what we considered in previous years to be our regular summer travel season ….”
 
chrisair
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Sep 24, 2020 10:32 pm

32andBelow wrote:
Regarding Hawaii: there are a lot of time share owners that have weeks that are about to expire. Hawaii would be a good use for them


I think the catch with Hawaii will be testing capacity. Can people reliably get test results turned around in 24-72 hours before they board their flight? When my coworker went to Alaska, he took two tests; one was turned in 24 hours, the other in six(!) days, after he was home. That was in July, but a delay like that could really derail someone’s plans.
 
32andBelow
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Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Sep 24, 2020 10:44 pm

chrisair wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Regarding Hawaii: there are a lot of time share owners that have weeks that are about to expire. Hawaii would be a good use for them


I think the catch with Hawaii will be testing capacity. Can people reliably get test results turned around in 24-72 hours before they board their flight? When my coworker went to Alaska, he took two tests; one was turned in 24 hours, the other in six(!) days, after he was home. That was in July, but a delay like that could really derail someone’s plans.

I think with wallgreens turning tests in 1-2 days now it’s pretty reasonable
 
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75driver
Posts: 147
Joined: Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:02 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:54 am

What new test does Walgreens have that turns around in 1-2 days? It seen anything about it.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5704
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Sep 25, 2020 5:09 am

75driver wrote:
What new test does Walgreens have that turns around in 1-2 days? It seen anything about it.

I’ve gotten a couple free tests there for exposure and I got the first result in 1 day and the second result in 2 days. You can make an appointment on their website
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 5056
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:24 pm

On another thread someone mentioned a 'frenzy' of booking on a foreign country opening its borders to the US. My suspicion is that business and family matters have a fair amount of pent up demand that are considered essential. Hence that initial frenzy of orders is not the same as recovery of demand.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6637
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Sep 25, 2020 1:14 pm

JetBlue's CEO Robhin Hayes mentioned that JetBlue has now improved from getting 3 to 4% of their normal daily revenue to 30 to 35% of their normal daily revenue. I'm sure non-ticket booking revenue is a part of that, but showing quite an improvement in booking revenue recently. Keep in mind, 30% of normal booking revenue is different than 30% of normal bookings, since yields are down quite a bit to stimulate traffic. I'm guessing all the carriers are seeing this.

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