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FlyingElvii
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Oct 21, 2020 3:24 am

Miamiairport wrote:
I don't see offices returning to the level once were. Getting into Manhattan often means a drive to station then commuting on a train, easily one hour plus per way. Sometimes a car/bus/train combo. Not to mention office space is expensive. I see employers allowing more WFM and needing less office space. Workers being required to come into the office 1-2 a week.

The other issue is that the moronic mayor doesn't seem to want to help NYC come back. He seems more enthralled with being a dictator and punishing those that provide the lion's share of taxes to the city. Possibly next year if NYC votes him out and someone else in the city will recover. But as long as de Blasio is around it's not gonna happen.

I lived in Manhattan for 17 years and glad I'm no longer living there. Most of my friends of means have moved or headed for beach homes full time. It seems as though the city will be full of people that are trapped there. It's an easy place to get trapped. You spend all your money living and don't have the financial means to start over again somewhere else.

Now you have the Governor of Texas telling the NASDAQ that they plan to have a state constitutional amendment banning state income tax. If NASDAQ moves so will the remaining of the financial district. That has a knock on effect that other related businesses see no reason to maintain a (expensive) presence in NYC. The mayor should be doing everything he can to keep business but this imbecile is too busy putting out videos showing how to put on a mask.

Sold my Suburban Indianapolis house 4 weeks ago to a guy originally from the area who was desperate to get his family out of NYC, and his kids out of the nightmare the schools have become. All cash, 7 day close. The movement out of NYC is real. It remains to be seen what kind of effect it will have long-term, but a significant percentage of those who drive the city have fled, with no intention of ever returning.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:23 pm

Highest LFs since the first week of March, this does not include the impact of seat blocking, meaning most available seats are getting sold:

"Workman noted that it’s been difficult to balance capacity on some routes, as passengers are tending to book their trips very late in the day. This, he says, has led to some flights becoming full at the last minute."
https://simpleflying.com/98-of-american ... ll-planes/

Image
https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:35 pm

Most positive I've heard airline management sound in quite some time....

AA update:
-American expects flights to Latin America and the Caribbean to reach 70 percent of 2019’s revenue levels by end of Q4
-Net bookings at 50% YOY at end of Q3, compared to 20% YOY in July
-Still seeing booking growth even with case counts rising
-45% of flights in September had a LF > 80%

AS update:
-Adding capacity back quicker to SEA, in order to not "spill demand" to competitors
-60% of 2019 revenue needed to break-even (even building in lower yields)
-15% of bookings through credits
-Immediately after the islands announced the testing program bookings increased, and have continued to increase each day since
-Seeing expanded booking window
-No drop in bookings, and bookings are growing faster than enplanements

WN update:
-Seeing signs of life in bookings from MDW, KC, STL, and continued strength in Sun belt and Western US
-Northeast and Short-haul still weak
-No booking warning signs like they saw in early July
-~2000 extra flight sections added during Q3, to add back capacity where needed
-75% of these additional sections were profitable
-Seeing close-in yield improvement
-Ability to add in more flights to November is limited
-Booked LF for the holidays is in line with previous years
-Continuing to see modest growth outside of 21 days
-90% of corp accounts traveling, with only 89% of normal corp travel counts
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32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:16 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Most positive I've heard airline management sound in quite some time....

AA update:
-American expects flights to Latin America and the Caribbean to reach 70 percent of 2019’s revenue levels by end of Q4
-Net bookings at 50% YOY at end of Q3, compared to 20% YOY in July
-Still seeing booking growth even with case counts rising
-45% of flights in September had a LF > 80%

AS update:
-Adding capacity back quicker to SEA, in order to not "spill demand" to competitors
-60% of 2019 revenue needed to break-even (even building in lower yields)
-15% of bookings through credits
-Immediately after the islands announced the testing program bookings increased, and have continued to increase each day since
-Seeing expanded booking window
-No drop in bookings, and bookings are growing faster than enplanements

WN update:
-Seeing signs of life in bookings from MDW, KC, STL, and continued strength in Sun belt and Western US
-Northeast and Short-haul still weak
-No booking warning signs like they saw in early July
-~2000 extra flight sections added during Q3, to add back capacity where needed
-75% of these additional sections were profitable
-Seeing close-in yield improvement
-Ability to add in more flights to November is limited
-Booked LF for the holidays is in line with previous years
-Continuing to see modest growth outside of 21 days
-90% of corp accounts traveling, with only 89% of normal corp travel counts

Airlines were making big profits before this. So it makes sense they can break even at those levels after they have reduced expenses.
 
Osubuckeyes
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:02 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Most positive I've heard airline management sound in quite some time....

AA update:
-American expects flights to Latin America and the Caribbean to reach 70 percent of 2019’s revenue levels by end of Q4
-Net bookings at 50% YOY at end of Q3, compared to 20% YOY in July
-Still seeing booking growth even with case counts rising
-45% of flights in September had a LF > 80%

AS update:
-Adding capacity back quicker to SEA, in order to not "spill demand" to competitors
-60% of 2019 revenue needed to break-even (even building in lower yields)
-15% of bookings through credits
-Immediately after the islands announced the testing program bookings increased, and have continued to increase each day since
-Seeing expanded booking window
-No drop in bookings, and bookings are growing faster than enplanements

WN update:
-Seeing signs of life in bookings from MDW, KC, STL, and continued strength in Sun belt and Western US
-Northeast and Short-haul still weak
-No booking warning signs like they saw in early July
-~2000 extra flight sections added during Q3, to add back capacity where needed
-75% of these additional sections were profitable
-Seeing close-in yield improvement
-Ability to add in more flights to November is limited
-Booked LF for the holidays is in line with previous years
-Continuing to see modest growth outside of 21 days
-90% of corp accounts traveling, with only 89% of normal corp travel counts


Booked LF for holidays being in line with previous years is big. Good sign for the airlines for sure.

Southwest also stated that they are dropping the capacity cap on Dec 1.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:07 pm

Osubuckeyes wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Most positive I've heard airline management sound in quite some time....

AA update:
-American expects flights to Latin America and the Caribbean to reach 70 percent of 2019’s revenue levels by end of Q4
-Net bookings at 50% YOY at end of Q3, compared to 20% YOY in July
-Still seeing booking growth even with case counts rising
-45% of flights in September had a LF > 80%

AS update:
-Adding capacity back quicker to SEA, in order to not "spill demand" to competitors
-60% of 2019 revenue needed to break-even (even building in lower yields)
-15% of bookings through credits
-Immediately after the islands announced the testing program bookings increased, and have continued to increase each day since
-Seeing expanded booking window
-No drop in bookings, and bookings are growing faster than enplanements

WN update:
-Seeing signs of life in bookings from MDW, KC, STL, and continued strength in Sun belt and Western US
-Northeast and Short-haul still weak
-No booking warning signs like they saw in early July
-~2000 extra flight sections added during Q3, to add back capacity where needed
-75% of these additional sections were profitable
-Seeing close-in yield improvement
-Ability to add in more flights to November is limited
-Booked LF for the holidays is in line with previous years
-Continuing to see modest growth outside of 21 days
-90% of corp accounts traveling, with only 89% of normal corp travel counts


Booked LF for holidays being in line with previous years is big. Good sign for the airlines for sure.

Southwest also stated that they are dropping the capacity cap on Dec 1.


I think we will see JetBlue follow this move. As for AS I think they’ll slowly unwind the seat blocking throughout the Winter. DL should be the final one to pull the plug which I would assume would be around March-April.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Oct 23, 2020 4:15 am

Those comments are interesting in multiple ways. They do give some interesting context.

The contrarian side of me though thinks they are very carefully and selectively choosing their words, data points, and statements to convey a guarded sense of optimism to the broader group of stakeholders and financial community.

They say a lot but they also leave out a lot. Yes, there are pockets of strength and you can see where they are seeking out these opportunities.

As I’ve said before Q3 was known to what it was. The industry gets a bit of a free pass on Q4 and can be optimistic on how the holiday peaks turn out. It’s Q2 and Q3 2021 that everyone is focused upon and what the trajectory looks like heading toward that period.

We are still in the reboot phase.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:28 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
As I’ve said before Q3 was known to what it was. The industry gets a bit of a free pass on Q4 and can be optimistic on how the holiday peaks turn out. It’s Q2 and Q3 2021 that everyone is focused upon and what the trajectory looks like heading toward that period.

We are still in the reboot phase.


I disagree on the Q3 point, many were predicting a large drop off post-labor day, and certainly not the jump in bookings we started to see
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/airli ... 2020-06-10
https://thepointsguy.com/news/airlines- ... er-uptick/
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/08/business ... index.html

They can't really focus on Q2 or Q3 until 2021, as even in normal years no one is booking that far out at this point.

In fact, most of the airlines said in their earnings calls they don't really have any concrete plans for mid-2021 yet, the vast majority of their attention is on the 30-90 day time horizon.
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PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:03 pm

At a discreet tactical level of capacity planning, yes they are only making decisions on a 30-90 timeline. Yes, I agree with that.

However at a high-level strategic view of capacity planning, they are making longer-term decisions as to how to scale the size of their operations, fleet, employment, and infrastructure based on a range of scenarios for 2021 and 2022. Things that impact more of the fixed-cost side of the business.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Oct 26, 2020 4:16 pm

Another flat week of bookings, brightspot is definitely the islands right now:

Image

Image
https://www2.arccorp.com/about-us/newsr ... r-25-2020/
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chrisair
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:07 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
As for AS I think they’ll slowly unwind the seat blocking throughout the Winter. DL should be the final one to pull the plug which I would assume would be around March-April.


If I were a betting person (and with things COVID, I sure as hell am not), but I wouldn’t be surprised to see AS announce an end to seat blocking after DL announces it.

Good to see some life in the industry. Will be very interesting to see how things progress as the winter moves on. At this point, I don’t have any flights on my calendar until March at the earliest unless it’s on NetJets...definitely enjoying the time at home and change of pace!
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:09 pm

Reiterating the lack of a drop-off in demand:

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https://www.kalibrilabs.com/industry-health
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:30 pm

G4, NK, and HA released earnings today and earlier in the week. G4 numbers are impressive:

G4:
- *No longer talking about cash burn moving forward
- Sept/Oct bookings at 75% of LY's levels, July was down 50%
- Through October gross daily bookings have grown from ~2M avg during Q3, to ~3M avg during October
- Recorded positive cash inflows for the month of September, excluding a $5 million payment in connection with terminating the loan agreement intended to finance the development of Sunseeker Resorts Charlotte Harbor
- September revenue "only" down 43% YOY
- Last two weeks of September had strongest LFs since March
- Q4 capacity down 15% YOY
https://ir.allegiantair.com/news-releas ... al-results

NK:
- *No longer talking about cash burn moving forward
- LF of 68.1%
- Spirit estimates its capacity will be down approximately 25 percent year over year. On a monthly basis, Spirit estimates its capacity for October will be down approximately 36 percent and that November and December will both be down about 20 percent compared to the same periods last year.
- "Based on current demand and level of operation assumptions, Spirit estimates its fourth quarter total operating revenue will be down approximately 43 to 45 percent year over year."
- "Our average daily cash burn5 for the third quarter 2020 was $2.3 million, better than our most recent guidance of approximately $3 million per day, primarily due to better top-line sales and timing of payments. We estimate our average daily cash burn for the fourth quarter 2020 will average about $2 million per day"

HA:
- "We're encouraged with our inbound load factor from North America to Hawaii running at 57% in the first 10 days since we reopened the state"
- "Bookings for the fourth quarter were coming in at about 10% of historical levels. After the announcement in mid-September, that improved to 25% to 35% with greater progress in the front half of the quarter. And since October 15th, as travelers have seen the state finally implement the testing program, we've seen steady improvement with bookings coming in at 35% to 55% of last year's levels"
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2nd2none
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:23 pm

Yesterday data October 29 2020 was 42.70 % of last year througput, but daily infection numbers is +97,000 in the US today?

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:43 pm

Midwestindy - I would like, and had prepared, to be optimistic, even planning some outings. Unfortunately even our almost exemplary county and state are experiencing disturbingly increases of infections. Family gatherings will be limited and small. I see another crash in bookings and storm of cancellations ahead. Oddly this may be simultaneous with some small niches being opened more.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
MIflyer12
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:37 pm

2nd2none wrote:
Yesterday data October 29 2020 was 42.70 % of last year througput, but daily infection numbers is +97,000 in the US today?

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


Passenger numbers is a poor metric. Fraction of flights year-over-year is a poor metric. They are both bad because they don't acknowledge that the average distance flown per passenger is down, and the avg fare per mile flown is down.

Flying 55% of the flights, to carry 45% of the passengers, to get 40% of the RPMs, to get 30% of last year's revenue while trying to carry 100% of the employees at 100% of the hours at 100% of the wage rates is not a recipe for success. (Yes, there have been some early-out programs, some voluntary leaves, and some furloughs. They certainly haven't scaled expenses down to meet RPMs - in spite of the gift of markedly lower fuel prices.)

How infection numbers today get reflected by passenger numbers xx days into the future I won't guess.
 
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2nd2none
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:46 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
2nd2none wrote:
Yesterday data October 29 2020 was 42.70 % of last year througput, but daily infection numbers is +97,000 in the US today?

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


Passenger numbers is a poor metric. Fraction of flights year-over-year is a poor metric. They are both bad because they don't acknowledge that the average distance flown per passenger is down, and the avg fare per mile flown is down.

Flying 55% of the flights, to carry 45% of the passengers, to get 40% of the RPMs, to get 30% of last year's revenue while trying to carry 100% of the employees at 100% of the hours at 100% of the wage rates is not a recipe for success. (Yes, there have been some early-out programs, some voluntary leaves, and some furloughs. They certainly haven't scaled expenses down to meet RPMs - in spite of the gift of markedly lower fuel prices.)

How infection numbers today get reflected by passenger numbers xx days into the future I won't guess.


Yes I agree, the relative high numbers at the moment is "leisure" travel and less important earning/business wise for the airlines, best documented with higher troughput near the weekends.
 
tphuang
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Oct 31, 2020 11:20 pm

The earnings reports show why this downturn will hit big 3 more than smaller carriers. All the big 3 are seeing their passenger revenue down more than 80%. Among the ULCCs and AS/B6, they all saw better numbers than that. Even JetBlue with most of its operation in demand starved northeast. The ULCCs with all their focus on leisure and more flexibility to go where demand is are going to recover the quickest. I was surprised to see WN's revenue in September to be down close to what JetBlue was down by despite the former having operation in parts of country where demand has recovered quicker. That to me indicates they are also really feeling the effects of domestic business travel being cut so much.

The other thing to consider is all the ultra rich flying private jets to avoid traveling with the masses. These are the type that would fly first class domestically and business class on longer trips. There is a good chance this group doesn't go back to commercial travel for a long time.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:10 am

2nd2none wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
2nd2none wrote:
Yesterday data October 29 2020 was 42.70 % of last year througput, but daily infection numbers is +97,000 in the US today?

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


Passenger numbers is a poor metric. Fraction of flights year-over-year is a poor metric. They are both bad because they don't acknowledge that the average distance flown per passenger is down, and the avg fare per mile flown is down.

Flying 55% of the flights, to carry 45% of the passengers, to get 40% of the RPMs, to get 30% of last year's revenue while trying to carry 100% of the employees at 100% of the hours at 100% of the wage rates is not a recipe for success. (Yes, there have been some early-out programs, some voluntary leaves, and some furloughs. They certainly haven't scaled expenses down to meet RPMs - in spite of the gift of markedly lower fuel prices.)

How infection numbers today get reflected by passenger numbers xx days into the future I won't guess.


Yes I agree, the relative high numbers at the moment is "leisure" travel and less important earning/business wise for the airlines, best documented with higher troughput near the weekends.

It’s weird cus even before COVID the Leisure oriented airlines were more profitable than then business ones
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:04 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Midwestindy - I would like, and had prepared, to be optimistic, even planning some outings. Unfortunately even our almost exemplary county and state are experiencing disturbingly increases of infections. Family gatherings will be limited and small. I see another crash in bookings and storm of cancellations ahead. Oddly this may be simultaneous with some small niches being opened more.


It's unfortunate, but I think think we'll see a drop off in yoy bookings for the next couple weeks, the early part of November is probably going to be pretty "light" leisure wise (probably early December as well), as people are likely waiting until the holidays to travel. You can see it in the schedules, as there appears to be a lot of "flexing" up and down of airline schedules during Nov & Dec.

I think the cancellation piece is likely over stated, as airlines aren't having to give out many refunds anymore, they are giving out "credits" which allows them to keep the cash. Even in the July spike in cases, the cancellation rate/no-show rates were still relatively low.

I have one day-trip planned for Thanksgiving time, but I have about 4-5 booked for December/Early January, if that says anything.

2nd2none wrote:

Yes I agree, the relative high numbers at the moment is "leisure" travel and less important earning/business wise for the airlines, best documented with higher troughput near the weekends.


Higher throughput days are the same as they've always been, Thu/Fri/Sun.
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:02 pm

Last week was the first signs of a decline, this week should be another interesting week to watch, as COVID cases won't get much media attention with the election taking center stage.....

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https://www2.arccorp.com/about-us/newsr ... er-1-2020/
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Osubuckeyes
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:23 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
Midwestindy - I would like, and had prepared, to be optimistic, even planning some outings. Unfortunately even our almost exemplary county and state are experiencing disturbingly increases of infections. Family gatherings will be limited and small. I see another crash in bookings and storm of cancellations ahead. Oddly this may be simultaneous with some small niches being opened more.


It's unfortunate, but I think think we'll see a drop off in yoy bookings for the next couple weeks, the early part of November is probably going to be pretty "light" leisure wise (probably early December as well), as people are likely waiting until the holidays to travel. You can see it in the schedules, as there appears to be a lot of "flexing" up and down of airline schedules during Nov & Dec.

I think the cancellation piece is likely over stated, as airlines aren't having to give out many refunds anymore, they are giving out "credits" which allows them to keep the cash. Even in the July spike in cases, the cancellation rate/no-show rates were still relatively low.

I have one day-trip planned for Thanksgiving time, but I have about 4-5 booked for December/Early January, if that says anything.

2nd2none wrote:

Yes I agree, the relative high numbers at the moment is "leisure" travel and less important earning/business wise for the airlines, best documented with higher troughput near the weekends.


Higher throughput days are the same as they've always been, Thu/Fri/Sun.


The adjustment in change fee policies across the industry has reduced the cancellations and no-shows as well.
 
Miamiairport
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:14 pm

I don't think rising case numbers at this point well lower leisure demand. Those flying clearly at this point aren't concerned. However, it will certainly kill business demand and will prevent those that are still afraid to fly from flying. Outside of holidays I see demand pretty much on a plateau. Now if numbers really spike and lockdowns begin again in earnest demand could evaporate like it did in March.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:27 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
I don't think rising case numbers at this point well lower leisure demand. Those flying clearly at this point aren't concerned. However, it will certainly kill business demand and will prevent those that are still afraid to fly from flying. Outside of holidays I see demand pretty much on a plateau. Now if numbers really spike and lockdowns begin again in earnest demand could evaporate like it did in March.


Yeah...December bookings were up 9% last week, even int'l bookings for December are "only" down 64% which is impressive given the travel restrictions.

Problem right now is close-in bookings have dipped during this heavy off-peak season around halloween & election day.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/airlin ... 1604334847

Still a bit surprising that we haven't seen a greater drop off, but I guess it's good news nevertheless for the industry, as a spike in cases now (during off-peak) likely means we won't see one during Christmas peak season given the cyclical nature of the virus.
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32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:05 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
I don't think rising case numbers at this point well lower leisure demand. Those flying clearly at this point aren't concerned. However, it will certainly kill business demand and will prevent those that are still afraid to fly from flying. Outside of holidays I see demand pretty much on a plateau. Now if numbers really spike and lockdowns begin again in earnest demand could evaporate like it did in March.


Yeah...December bookings were up 9% last week, even int'l bookings for December are "only" down 64% which is impressive given the travel restrictions.

Problem right now is close-in bookings have dipped during this heavy off-peak season around halloween & election day.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/airlin ... 1604334847

Still a bit surprising that we haven't seen a greater drop off, but I guess it's good news nevertheless for the industry, as a spike in cases now (during off-peak) likely means we won't see one during Christmas peak season given the cyclical nature of the virus.

It seems like the rebound is outpacing or at least matching the normal seasonal drop off you’d see this time a year
 
NWADTWE16
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:30 am

I don't think anyone mentioned this, and it is very important regarding DL and how they address extension of their seat block. CEO Bastian stated Friday that DL customers have been very clear and very consistent in their messaging to the carrier, that they are flying DL right now because they feel safe with DL and the blocked seat/limited LF is the reason. He also stated , and this is key, those same passengers are paying up to a 50%+ premium, you could surmise, for that level of safety they feel.
Delta has a very positive position in the "hearts and minds" of the public right now. Rushing their well liked policy out the door could prove more devastating to them then another carrier, because they branded themselves with it.
The willingness to pay the premium is a great sign for DL clearly, and with most fares double i cant see why going long into 2021 (as long as needed) would be something they don't do. Investors should be happy with those results and extending it so as not to implode all they have gained. If Wall street does force DL hand, i definitely think we see a large backfire, with extended negative perceptions for DL. Turing Gold into Coal if you will.

Also, i didnt see anyone address the fact that the GDP and Jobless claims numbers are a hoax (have been since the late 1800's) and true unemployment/underemployment is likely closer to 50% of the eligible work force. The underemployment part is more the key at the moment. Capitalism is end stage currently so the decades of cutting, and making everything lean, lean, lean (except for stock buybacks and executive salaries), have left many hollowed out companies large and small. You could even say certain Industries are hollowed out. Less workers are needed in the current environment and thats not changing in the future, it only gets worse with AI. The vast majority of those with jobs are making less to do them, and with more tasks acquired. All of these leads to far less disposable income for the "masses".

I wont go any deeper there because it does involve politics as UBI and National Infrastructure projects for the Green New Deal are two viable answers to at least part of that issue, but we cant just pretend its not there. People dont have money moving forward to enjoy life like they did. I'd even venture to say most of what "leisure" we see people doing right now is going on the credit card at 20-29% interest.
I haven't been everywhere, but it's on my list!
 
LOT767301ER
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:44 am

NWADTWE16 wrote:
I don't think anyone mentioned this, and it is very important regarding DL and how they address extension of their seat block. CEO Bastian stated Friday that DL customers have been very clear and very consistent in their messaging to the carrier, that they are flying DL right now because they feel safe with DL and the blocked seat/limited LF is the reason. He also stated , and this is key, those same passengers are paying up to a 50%+ premium, you could surmise, for that level of safety they feel.
Delta has a very positive position in the "hearts and minds" of the public right now. Rushing their well liked policy out the door could prove more devastating to them then another carrier, because they branded themselves with it.
The willingness to pay the premium is a great sign for DL clearly, and with most fares double i cant see why going long into 2021 (as long as needed) would be something they don't do. Investors should be happy with those results and extending it so as not to implode all they have gained. If Wall street does force DL hand, i definitely think we see a large backfire, with extended negative perceptions for DL. Turing Gold into Coal if you will.

Also, i didnt see anyone address the fact that the GDP and Jobless claims numbers are a hoax (have been since the late 1800's) and true unemployment/underemployment is likely closer to 50% of the eligible work force. The underemployment part is more the key at the moment. Capitalism is end stage currently so the decades of cutting, and making everything lean, lean, lean (except for stock buybacks and executive salaries), have left many hollowed out companies large and small. You could even say certain Industries are hollowed out. Less workers are needed in the current environment and thats not changing in the future, it only gets worse with AI. The vast majority of those with jobs are making less to do them, and with more tasks acquired. All of these leads to far less disposable income for the "masses".

I wont go any deeper there because it does involve politics as UBI and National Infrastructure projects for the Green New Deal are two viable answers to at least part of that issue, but we cant just pretend its not there. People dont have money moving forward to enjoy life like they did. I'd even venture to say most of what "leisure" we see people doing right now is going on the credit card at 20-29% interest.


Thanks Alexandria, can I get a beer when you're done yapping behind the bar?
 
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2nd2none
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:24 am

Midwestindy wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:

2nd2none wrote:

Yes I agree, the relative high numbers at the moment is "leisure" travel and less important earning/business wise for the airlines, best documented with higher troughput near the weekends.


Higher throughput days are the same as they've always been, Thu/Fri/Sun.


So how do you explain the fact that Sunday got the highest numbers of all weekdays recently?
 
Miamiairport
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:03 pm

So I'm confused people here are posting about how flying is increasing and there's a turnaround in the making? Yet an article out today that AA is cutting flying by nearly 50% for the month of December because of low demand. Maybe for the exception of Allegiant there's no US carrier that go make a go of it with 50% of their previous capacity. Even if they fire thousands.

I just see no return to profitability anytime soon for any airline for the exception of Allegiant. Too many planes, too many airports, too many money losing fares, not enough fee income and non flying revenue.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:35 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
So I'm confused people here are posting about how flying is increasing and there's a turnaround in the making? Yet an article out today that AA is cutting flying by nearly 50% for the month of December because of low demand. Maybe for the exception of Allegiant there's no US carrier that go make a go of it with 50% of their previous capacity. Even if they fire thousands.

I just see no return to profitability anytime soon for any airline for the exception of Allegiant. Too many planes, too many airports, too many money losing fares, not enough fee income and non flying revenue.


The December schedule is an increase over previous months.
Image

I see DL, AS, NK, WN, and maybe a couple others reaching break-even in Q2 or Q3 of 2021.

"Delta and United need a smaller recovery in demand in order to stop burning though cash than Southwest and Alaska, according to J.P. Morgan’s Jamie Baker. The two big international carriers would need demand to reach 45% to 50% of 2019 levels, while Southwest and Alaska may need a recovery to 60% of 2019 revenue to turn cash-flow positive"
https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-de ... 1603727169

It’s difficult for me to imagine a scenario where traffic doesn't reach 50-60% of 2019 by the end of Q3 2021, given we are approaching 40% already.
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Miamiairport
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:42 pm

Yes the AA December schedule might be an increase over previous months but it's down 50% from the prior year. Of course demand will pick up for the holidays but running half of prior capacity doesn't mean profits. Also I don't see how someone could say 45% to 50% of demand means profitability if that demand is based upon crap fares, reduced fee income and lower non flying revenue (credit card). Specifically DL and UA which derive a significant of income from long haul premium flying which still shows no sign of life.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:03 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
Yes the AA December schedule might be an increase over previous months but it's down 50% from the prior year. Of course demand will pick up for the holidays but running half of prior capacity doesn't mean profits. Also I don't see how someone could say 45% to 50% of demand means profitability if that demand is based upon crap fares, reduced fee income and lower non flying revenue (credit card). Specifically DL and UA which derive a significant of income from long haul premium flying which still shows no sign of life.


1. No one said it meant profitability

2. If you look at the airline financial results, the reduction in costs outweighs the reduction in yield, meaning break-even LFs are much lower. The two main cost inputs for airlines (fuel & salaries) have been gutted.

Also, if you look at changes in yield during Q3, 4 out of the top 8 are near or above last years fares/yield.

NK yield -24.7%
WN yield -23.1%
AA yield -17.3%

G4 avg fare -11.6%

UA yield -4.2%
DL yield -2%
AS yield +1.9%
B6 yield +4.9% (Average fare +14.1%)
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tphuang
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:20 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
So I'm confused people here are posting about how flying is increasing and there's a turnaround in the making? Yet an article out today that AA is cutting flying by nearly 50% for the month of December because of low demand. Maybe for the exception of Allegiant there's no US carrier that go make a go of it with 50% of their previous capacity. Even if they fire thousands.

I just see no return to profitability anytime soon for any airline for the exception of Allegiant. Too many planes, too many airports, too many money losing fares, not enough fee income and non flying revenue.


The December schedule is an increase over previous months.
Image

I see DL, AS, NK, WN, and maybe a couple others reaching break-even in Q2 or Q3 of 2021.

"Delta and United need a smaller recovery in demand in order to stop burning though cash than Southwest and Alaska, according to J.P. Morgan’s Jamie Baker. The two big international carriers would need demand to reach 45% to 50% of 2019 levels, while Southwest and Alaska may need a recovery to 60% of 2019 revenue to turn cash-flow positive"
https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-de ... 1603727169

It’s difficult for me to imagine a scenario where traffic doesn't reach 50-60% of 2019 by the end of Q3 2021, given we are approaching 40% already.


The first sustainable cash neutral operation will likely be G4 and followed by NK and F9.

Traffic and revenue are correlated but not the same. DL's Q3 passenger revenue was under 20% of 2019Q3 levels. It's overall revenue was higher than that, but that was lifted by cargo and loyalty and other businesses. Those other revenues might go up a little bit when demand comes back, but not that much. So, DL's passenger revenue would have to be 2.5 times higher than what it was in Q3 to stop cash burn. Good luck on that one. When DL and AS/B6 start to sell their entire cabin, their yield numbers will go down.

Of course, DL can keep separating debt payment and employee severance from its cash burn numbers to sell the story that it has achieved cash neutral when it hasn't done so.
 
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2nd2none
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:06 pm

Sunday is now the King of the week, when it comes to TSA throughput numbers, yesterday November 8 was 973,020 and 30 % above the average numbers for the 6 weekdays ahead.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:31 pm

Well, I assume you all have heard the good news on the vaccine this morning which has sent travel stocks skyrocketing (NK/G4 +20%). The vaccine development sets the stage to begin a true domestic recovery in the 2nd half of 2021
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:23 pm

There will be little leadership changes over the next few months and the virus is hitting painfully larger numbers of people. I fear the economy as a whole, let alone aviation, will take a dive. Health officials are warning hospital bed shortages are likely. And hospitalizations are perhaps the key metric in this plague.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
MIflyer12
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:32 pm

tphuang wrote:

Of course, DL can keep separating debt payment and employee severance from its cash burn numbers to sell the story that it has achieved cash neutral when it hasn't done so.


Debt payments?

Yes, employee severance is separated. It's not a regular, recurring charge any more than aircraft impairments. The 3Q20 cash element was reported. And of course, it's 18,000 VOLUNTARY separations - not furloughed, not continuing on the payroll in excess of flight needs for years.

Voluntary programs. Cash flows from the voluntary separation and early retirement programs offered to employees during the September quarter, reported within operating activities in GAAP results. We adjust free cash flow for this item in calculating daily cash burn to better illustrate the cash from our core operations. From Note A in the 3Q20 quarterly results press release.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:08 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
There will be little leadership changes over the next few months and the virus is hitting painfully larger numbers of people. I fear the economy as a whole, let alone aviation, will take a dive. Health officials are warning hospital bed shortages are likely. And hospitalizations are perhaps the key metric in this plague.


Not sure I follow you on the leadership changes piece, not sure how that factors into overall airline recovery.

The economic fallout as a result of the coronavirus was already largely felt in April-June, the worst of the economic fallout is largely behind us
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:12 pm

Airline bookings took a hit around Nov 3rd/4th which brought down yoy numbers, but otherwise last week was largely flat
Image

https://www2.arccorp.com/about-us/newsr ... er-8-2020/
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FlyingElvii
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:36 pm

2nd2none wrote:
Sunday is now the King of the week, when it comes to TSA throughput numbers, yesterday November 8 was 973,020 and 30 % above the average numbers for the 6 weekdays ahead.

Sunday was always a mix of Biz traffic going out, and leisure coming back in.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:41 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Reiterating the lack of a drop-off in demand:

Image
https://www.kalibrilabs.com/industry-health

Biz traffic is WAY down, yet the Signature ramp is full most days with bizjets. Business is traveling, but they aren’t near the same levels as last year. Those that do have to travel are using the alternatives of 135 and GA. You can see it on most days at the regional airports, 135 traffic is 10-20% OVER last year. If execs can justify the expense, they are going.

Here is analysis of traffic for October, based on Jet card travel only.

GA is at 85% or more of 2019 levels in the US and Europe combined. It can easily be shown the travel is being impacted more in Europe than the US.
GA traffic to Florida is up double digits over last year, even with the Northeast business centers down 45%.
California, despite the lockdowns, is only down 11% over last year.
The South and Midwest are at about 100% of last year, with some places up, and some places down.
Simply put, business is going to where they CAN do business, if politically allowed to do so.

https://privatejetcardcomparisons.com/2 ... celations/
 
Sooner787
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 09, 2020 11:25 pm

Flew last week for first time since pandemic started , DAL to SEA on WN w/ change of planes in DEN each way.
All 4 of my WN flts had max loads ( less the empty middle seats).

Terminal C at DEN seemed quite busy, SEA was much quieter than my last visit.
 
tphuang
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:24 pm

Article on CF on cash burn of the various airlines.
https://crankyflier.com/2020/11/10/and- ... -derby-is/
"Raymond James standardizes the numbers by excluding grants (that’s CARES Act stuff which shouldn’t be counted as cash in when looking at ongoing company health) and non-aircraft financing (which comes in a big chunk and then has to go back eventually). We also used the number that pulls out severance costs, because that seems more even and more relevant to the actual operation. Here are the third quarter results:"

From this, looks like G4 and NK had the biggest improvement from Q2 to Q3 and did the best overall of any airlines. B6 and AA did the worst in Q3.

UA did the best among the big 3 after adjustment.
 
jayunited
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:52 pm

tphuang wrote:
Article on CF on cash burn of the various airlines.
https://crankyflier.com/2020/11/10/and- ... -derby-is/
"Raymond James standardizes the numbers by excluding grants (that’s CARES Act stuff which shouldn’t be counted as cash in when looking at ongoing company health) and non-aircraft financing (which comes in a big chunk and then has to go back eventually). We also used the number that pulls out severance costs, because that seems more even and more relevant to the actual operation. Here are the third quarter results:"

From this, looks like G4 and NK had the biggest improvement from Q2 to Q3 and did the best overall of any airlines. B6 and AA did the worst in Q3.

UA did the best among the big 3 after adjustment.



So basically after reading the CF article the US3 all lied about their actual cash burn ( I know lied is a strong word and may not be the right word for this situation).
I appreciate CF for wading through those muddy waters to find the truth and posting the actual adjusted daily cash burn rate in Q3.
The legal tricks and accounting gimmicks these airlines use to try and make it appear as though their cash burn was at a much lower rate than it actually it was is shameful.
 
chonetsao
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:36 pm

jayunited wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Article on CF on cash burn of the various airlines.
https://crankyflier.com/2020/11/10/and- ... -derby-is/
"Raymond James standardizes the numbers by excluding grants (that’s CARES Act stuff which shouldn’t be counted as cash in when looking at ongoing company health) and non-aircraft financing (which comes in a big chunk and then has to go back eventually). We also used the number that pulls out severance costs, because that seems more even and more relevant to the actual operation. Here are the third quarter results:"

From this, looks like G4 and NK had the biggest improvement from Q2 to Q3 and did the best overall of any airlines. B6 and AA did the worst in Q3.

UA did the best among the big 3 after adjustment.



So basically after reading the CF article the US3 all lied about their actual cash burn ( I know lied is a strong word and may not be the right word for this situation).
I appreciate CF for wading through those muddy waters to find the truth and posting the actual adjusted daily cash burn rate in Q3.
The legal tricks and accounting gimmicks these airlines use to try and make it appear as though their cash burn was at a much lower rate than it actually it was is shameful.


Well, you have to take any opinion within a pinch of salt. The article from crankyflier might be right, it may have a point. But, it only showed what the numbers are like as an end product, without revealing the exact method and numbers during the calculation. In science terms, it is not peer reviewed.

So I am not saying that the numbers in the article is wrong or the author intentionally mislead in order to support his conclusion, I am just saying the author presented the result without revealing methodology and actual calculations. If you are to believe his conclusion, you have to wholly heartily believe his methods and original numbers are correct and his formula of calculation is 100% correct. I just don't think I would like to take his words without seeing the actual numbers and formula he used.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:50 pm

jayunited wrote:
So basically after reading the CF article the US3 all lied about their actual cash burn ( I know lied is a strong word and may not be the right word for this situation).
I appreciate CF for wading through those muddy waters to find the truth and posting the actual adjusted daily cash burn rate in Q3.
The legal tricks and accounting gimmicks these airlines use to try and make it appear as though their cash burn was at a much lower rate than it actually it was is shameful.


If you're a shareholder and think you were mislead, go find a big class-action legal firm to initiate a shareholder suit. I don't think you'll get very far - even in gaining representation. A lot of information - a LOT - is disclosed in the 10-Q notes. A quick read of a CNBC headline (or, ugh, Business Insider) doesn't give the depth needed. Carriers need to disclose material information but that doesn't mean they all need to disclose it the same way in a condensed table. Think of it as you would a dense academic article - you really need to go through the notes. Maybe you will trust somebody to do that for you - and Raymond James has a reputation to uphold - but if you've listened to a dozen earnings calls you will recognize that thirteen participating equity analysts will try to put at least seven different spins on the same set of data.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:19 pm

All financial reporting has unrealities. Read histories of trade in the very ancient world. Uncertainty, assumptions, guesses as to the future, (and even guesses about what happened in the recent as well as distant past), unpredictable changes all are incorporated in every financial report. Good and reasonable regulations themselves introduce more fictious images of reality. (Let alone who knows what reality is). As others have said, read the entire financial statement and draw your conclusions.

ps - Cranky flier has a good take on all of this. Not all of reality, but a good picture of aspects of reality.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
MrPeanut
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 10, 2020 5:30 pm

jayunited wrote:
So basically after reading the CF article the US3 all lied about their actual cash burn ( I know lied is a strong word and may not be the right word for this situation).
.



Actually it's quite the opposite. The airlines report their results all in, including one time items. Each airline may to choose to include/exclude certain items when they publicly state their respective cash burn rates, but all follow the same accounting rules.

All Raymond James did was took the airlines' results and backed out certain items based on what Raymond James believed was the best way to compare airlines cash burn rates. As a side note, there are certain financial metrics do not follow a standard calculation when reporting. DSO and DPO are two other examples that do not follow a standard calculation methodology either.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 10, 2020 6:43 pm

Update from DL:
"Net sales continue to trend higher in comparison to September quarter, with a slight extension of the booking curve as customers book holiday travel"

"Capacity projected down 40 to 45% in the December quarter versus prior year, with sellable capacity down approximately 60% when factoring in seat blocks"
https://s2.q4cdn.com/181345880/files/do ... _body_link
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Nov 11, 2020 3:54 pm

Big jump in close-in bookings, as expected:

Trip Purpose: Leisure – Solo Travelers & Couples
Image

Trip Purpose: Leisure – Family

Image
https://adara.com/traveler-trends-tracker/
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