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MrPeanut
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 10, 2020 5:30 pm

jayunited wrote:
So basically after reading the CF article the US3 all lied about their actual cash burn ( I know lied is a strong word and may not be the right word for this situation).
.



Actually it's quite the opposite. The airlines report their results all in, including one time items. Each airline may to choose to include/exclude certain items when they publicly state their respective cash burn rates, but all follow the same accounting rules.

All Raymond James did was took the airlines' results and backed out certain items based on what Raymond James believed was the best way to compare airlines cash burn rates. As a side note, there are certain financial metrics do not follow a standard calculation when reporting. DSO and DPO are two other examples that do not follow a standard calculation methodology either.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 10, 2020 6:43 pm

Update from DL:
"Net sales continue to trend higher in comparison to September quarter, with a slight extension of the booking curve as customers book holiday travel"

"Capacity projected down 40 to 45% in the December quarter versus prior year, with sellable capacity down approximately 60% when factoring in seat blocks"
https://s2.q4cdn.com/181345880/files/do ... _body_link
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Nov 11, 2020 3:54 pm

Big jump in close-in bookings, as expected:

Trip Purpose: Leisure – Solo Travelers & Couples
Image

Trip Purpose: Leisure – Family

Image
https://adara.com/traveler-trends-tracker/
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Nicknuzzii
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Nov 11, 2020 4:08 pm

Do you have the booking trend by city for this week?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Nov 11, 2020 4:27 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Do you have the booking trend by city for this week?


Will update next week, it's a week behind
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32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Nov 11, 2020 6:35 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Big jump in close-in bookings, as expected:

Trip Purpose: Leisure – Solo Travelers & Couples
Image

Trip Purpose: Leisure – Family

Image
https://adara.com/traveler-trends-tracker/

What did we expect this big jump for? Thanksgiving?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:41 pm

32andBelow wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Big jump in close-in bookings, as expected:

Trip Purpose: Leisure – Solo Travelers & Couples
Image

Trip Purpose: Leisure – Family

Image
https://adara.com/traveler-trends-tracker/

What did we expect this big jump for? Thanksgiving?


Yep, Thanksgiving is 15 days out so this is when bookings really pick up, as the large majority of Thanksgiving bookings come close-in.

WN, B6, & UA added additional flights in anticipation, last week and this week.
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32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:18 pm

Oh nice. Aren’t a lot of colleges taking an extended winter break starting with thanksging?
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:25 pm

Yes, makes sense that short term would jump up as we the 2 week booking window now starts to capture thanksgiving travel demand.

Thanksgiving travel period actually really starts late next week, Thursday/ Friday.

Most colleges are wrapping up in person instruction next week and are not planning to resume in person classes until mid January. Most large colleges are going fully remote after thanksgiving due to all the increases in cases and the challenges and exposure risks that we are going to see over the holidays.
This may somewhat change travel demand dynamics but hard to tell when we are still in this low tide 30-40% demand environment and numerous travel restrictions.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:21 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Yes, makes sense that short term would jump up as we the 2 week booking window now starts to capture thanksgiving travel demand.

Thanksgiving travel period actually really starts late next week, Thursday/ Friday.

Most colleges are wrapping up in person instruction next week and are not planning to resume in person classes until mid January. Most large colleges are going fully remote after thanksgiving due to all the increases in cases and the challenges and exposure risks that we are going to see over the holidays.
This may somewhat change travel demand dynamics but hard to tell when we are still in this low tide 30-40% demand environment and numerous travel restrictions.


Yep, probably a decent jump in pax numbers starting on Nov 19.

I still expect a natural dip in that couple weeks after Thanksgiving and before Christmas, before holiday travel begins. Although January could be stronger than expected, as the virus spike will likely have subsided, and many schools aren't going back until late January/Early Feb.
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PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:22 am

Yes, I would expect the 2-3 weeks between Thanksgiving and Christmas travel periods to mirror pretty similar to what we are seeing here in early-November.

While I've mentioned a bit about how college and school schedules are obviously much different this year, its not so much about the demand from college students as it is to whether that impacts the timing of if and when families decide to travel over the holiday break periods. In many cases there will be a much longer break period than the typical 2-weeks around Christmas and New Years. This could spill more traffic into early-Jan, and "smooth" the peak.

Lets keep it in perspective though, this demand increase we are talking about it nowhere near pre-COVID levels. Cases are peaking now which is going to have an impact on restrictions/business/commerce, etc. That may cause people to rethink, postpone, or not book travel. There is a theoretical maximum to what the demand "peak" will look like over the holidays. Particularly since so much international traffic is off the table, people aren't going to travel, etc. My guess is that we'll see on average over the holiday periods be at about 50% of last year.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:28 am

In full transparency, I'm curious since I haven't been paying a ton of attention, of the major "sun/beach markets" outside of the US, which are actually really open for travel?
Obviously everything domestically is open / available. Hawaii just eased their restrictions. But I haven't paid attention to the others.
Obviously there is no cruise demand this holiday / winter.
 
Brickell305
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:52 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
In full transparency, I'm curious since I haven't been paying a ton of attention, of the major "sun/beach markets" outside of the US, which are actually really open for travel?
Obviously everything domestically is open / available. Hawaii just eased their restrictions. But I haven't paid attention to the others.
Obviously there is no cruise demand this holiday / winter.

Of the major beach destinations outside the US, pretty much all of them are open. Jamaica, Mexico, the Dominican Republic, most of the Eastern Caribbean.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:35 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Yes, makes sense that short term would jump up as we the 2 week booking window now starts to capture thanksgiving travel demand.

Thanksgiving travel period actually really starts late next week, Thursday/ Friday.


Then we see WN substantially contradict the happy news with its 8-K filing 11/12/20:

...the Company has experienced a deceleration in improving revenue trends for
November and December 2020 in recent weeks.



November ASMs down ~35% vs. 2019
Load factor 50-55%

But reflecting sharply lower avg fares: op revenue down 60-65%

December ASMs down 40-45% vs. 2019
Load factor 60-70%
Op revenue down 60-65%


Remarks regarding Thanksgiving holiday falling wholly into November this year.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:51 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Yes, makes sense that short term would jump up as we the 2 week booking window now starts to capture thanksgiving travel demand.

Thanksgiving travel period actually really starts late next week, Thursday/ Friday.


Then we see WN substantially contradict the happy news with its 8-K filing 11/12/20:

...the Company has experienced a deceleration in improving revenue trends for
November and December 2020 in recent weeks.



November ASMs down ~35% vs. 2019
Load factor 50-55%

But reflecting sharply lower avg fares: op revenue down 60-65%

December ASMs down 40-45% vs. 2019
Load factor 60-70%
Op revenue down 60-65%


Remarks regarding Thanksgiving holiday falling wholly into November this year.


All of those are at or above expectations.

You cut off the second half of the deceleration statement:
"While the Company expected the election to impact trends, it is unclear whether the softness in booking trends is also a direct result of the recent rise in COVID-19 cases"

And this: "When adjusting for this impact, December 2020 revenue trends are currently estimated to improve compared with November 2020"

And this: "The Company's average daily core cash burn in October 2020 was approximately $10 million, which compares favorably with its previous estimate of approximately $12 million per day, primarily due to continued improvements in close-in leisure demand. The Company now estimates its average daily core cash burn to be in the range of $10 million to $11 million in fourth quarter 2020, which compares with its previous estimate of approximately $11 million"

I already posted the decline in recent weeks surrounding halloween & election season, but this week's spike in bookings isn't likely factored into the 8K since Tuesday-Thursday are the busiest days for bookings
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B350pilot
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 12, 2020 4:05 pm

Great discussion folks. Any speculation when/if the passenger counts will exceed the current 30-40% of 2019 levels?

See chart attached.

Image
 
chonetsao
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 12, 2020 4:22 pm

B350pilot wrote:
Great discussion folks. Any speculation when/if the passenger counts will exceed the current 30-40% of 2019 levels?

See chart attached.

Image


Can't tell you anything definite. But from a chartist's point of view, if the 40% mark is not breached in 2-3 weeks time, it is likely to be the ceiling for the coming 1-3 months. Actually now think about it, you don't need this chart to tell you that...lol...
 
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LAXintl
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 12, 2020 6:01 pm

Really a shame to see the number of people that elect to take non-essential trips in the midst of this health emergency.
Each person risk becoming or causing a further rise in the grim national statistics.

#StayHomeStaySafeSaveLives
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
LOT767301ER
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 12, 2020 6:07 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Really a shame to see the number of people that elect to take non-essential trips in the midst of this health emergency.
Each person risk becoming or causing a further rise in the grim national statistics.

#StayHomeStaySafeSaveLives


Im trying to take as many as possible. Its even a bigger shame to see people that want to hide in their basements forever scaring others to do the same.
 
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UPlog
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 12, 2020 6:17 pm

Its indeed bizarre how many Americans throw caution out the window and seek to take non-essential leisure trips.

Even as a pilot, I would not travel commercial for non work activity.

And no, one does not need to be locked in your basement, but yes can very easily avoid stores and public places to the greatest extent possible. Things like online ordering, far reduce the need to interact with crowds.

I am afraid until we all pull in the same direction, we simply extend the pain for everyone. Just look at China, domestic air travel has already returned to pre COVID levels in October!
https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/c ... 65.article
I fly your boxes
 
santi319
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 12, 2020 6:20 pm

UPlog wrote:
Its indeed bizarre how many Americans throw caution out the window and seek to take non-essential leisure trips.

Even as a pilot, I would not travel commercial for non work activity.

And no, one does not need to be locked in your basement, but yes can very easily avoid stores and public places to the greatest extent possible. Things like online ordering, far reduce the need to interact with crowds.

I am afraid until we all pull in the same direction, we simply extend the pain for everyone. Just look at China, domestic air travel has already returned to pre COVID levels in October!
https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/c ... 65.article


Be careful what you wish for... this isn’t China and losing your job isn’t fun at all...
 
Exeiowa
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 12, 2020 6:35 pm

We can beat this by doing nothing, apparently that was too hard, so its still going and worse than before. There are lots of parts of the US where the density of people is low and there is plenty of space. I can go for a nice drive anytime I want to appreciate the changing leaves or walk. The fact the growth and jobs have become so concentrated is part f the reason for the lack of recelency in this time. But that's not a problem I can fix, but airplanes and other transport infrastructure could have.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 12, 2020 6:43 pm

B350pilot wrote:
Great discussion folks. Any speculation when/if the passenger counts will exceed the current 30-40% of 2019 levels?

See chart attached.

Image

Thanksgiving travel will for sure. Paired with college kids going home
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 12, 2020 6:44 pm

UPlog wrote:
Its indeed bizarre how many Americans throw caution out the window and seek to take non-essential leisure trips.

Even as a pilot, I would not travel commercial for non work activity.

And no, one does not need to be locked in your basement, but yes can very easily avoid stores and public places to the greatest extent possible. Things like online ordering, far reduce the need to interact with crowds.

I am afraid until we all pull in the same direction, we simply extend the pain for everyone. Just look at China, domestic air travel has already returned to pre COVID levels in October!
https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/c ... 65.article

Covids everywhere. You have the same chance of getting it at the supermarket as you do flying to an empty beach
 
747fan
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 12, 2020 7:15 pm

Ummm, I thought this discussion was about BOOKING TRENDS.
To try to get this back on track and not locked, I'm curious to see how things trend this week and next week. It does seem like loads have fallen off a bit since the beginning of November, which of course coincided with Halloween and Election Day. As an airline industry employee whose job is dependent on people flying, I hope its more related to that and the typical lull this time of year before Thanksgiving rather than a correlation of rising COVID numbers.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 12, 2020 8:15 pm

747fan wrote:
Ummm, I thought this discussion was about BOOKING TRENDS.
To try to get this back on track and not locked, I'm curious to see how things trend this week and next week. It does seem like loads have fallen off a bit since the beginning of November, which of course coincided with Halloween and Election Day. As an airline industry employee whose job is dependent on people flying, I hope its more related to that and the typical lull this time of year before Thanksgiving rather than a correlation of rising COVID numbers.


Yep, this kind of stuff that got the TSA thread locked

Good point on loads, they definitely dropped during the Halloween/Election day period, I'd expect them to stay somewhat down for a bit until the Thanksgiving Holiday kicks in.

Image
https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#
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32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 12, 2020 8:28 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
747fan wrote:
Ummm, I thought this discussion was about BOOKING TRENDS.
To try to get this back on track and not locked, I'm curious to see how things trend this week and next week. It does seem like loads have fallen off a bit since the beginning of November, which of course coincided with Halloween and Election Day. As an airline industry employee whose job is dependent on people flying, I hope its more related to that and the typical lull this time of year before Thanksgiving rather than a correlation of rising COVID numbers.


Yep, this kind of stuff that got the TSA thread locked

Good point on loads, they definitely dropped during the Halloween/Election day period, I'd expect them to stay somewhat down for a bit until the Thanksgiving Holiday kicks in.

Image
https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

I would say oct/early November is traditionally a low travel period in the US. So I will see if you just see normal Seasonality in the numbers.
 
B747forever
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 12, 2020 8:45 pm

LOT767301ER wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
Really a shame to see the number of people that elect to take non-essential trips in the midst of this health emergency.
Each person risk becoming or causing a further rise in the grim national statistics.

#StayHomeStaySafeSaveLives


Im trying to take as many as possible. Its even a bigger shame to see people that want to hide in their basements forever scaring others to do the same.


:checkmark:

So far this year I have flown 125 segments/158K miles, including 3 TATL trips. Before year end I have another 24 booked flights, including 2 more LAX-Europe trips. I regularly get tested, and have been COVID free throughout this whole period. With empty planes and quiet airports, there has been no better time to fly, just so relaxing!
Work Hard, Fly Right
 
SRQLOT
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:32 pm

B747forever wrote:
LOT767301ER wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
Really a shame to see the number of people that elect to take non-essential trips in the midst of this health emergency.
Each person risk becoming or causing a further rise in the grim national statistics.

#StayHomeStaySafeSaveLives


Im trying to take as many as possible. Its even a bigger shame to see people that want to hide in their basements forever scaring others to do the same.


:checkmark:

So far this year I have flown 125 segments/158K miles, including 3 TATL trips. Before year end I have another 24 booked flights, including 2 more LAX-Europe trips. I regularly get tested, and have been COVID free throughout this whole period. With empty planes and quiet airports, there has been no better time to fly, just so relaxing!


Although I have not flown anywhere close to the number of flights to you, it has been my busiest year of travel including twice to Mexico and I feel safer in an airplane and airport then at my job where when someone sneezes they remove their mask! On all my flights no one dared as much as cough or sneeze! And I do believe this situation we are in is dire, but mask up it’s that simple!!! And I managed to stay Covid free.
LO LH CL BA AZ WN UA DL AA B6 NK G4 F9
717 733/7/8/9/M8 744 752/3 763 772 788 319/20/21 332/3 M90 RJ85 CR9 Q400 E70/75/95 (PA28,152)
 
747fan
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:46 am

32andBelow wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
747fan wrote:
Ummm, I thought this discussion was about BOOKING TRENDS.
To try to get this back on track and not locked, I'm curious to see how things trend this week and next week. It does seem like loads have fallen off a bit since the beginning of November, which of course coincided with Halloween and Election Day. As an airline industry employee whose job is dependent on people flying, I hope its more related to that and the typical lull this time of year before Thanksgiving rather than a correlation of rising COVID numbers.


Yep, this kind of stuff that got the TSA thread locked

Good point on loads, they definitely dropped during the Halloween/Election day period, I'd expect them to stay somewhat down for a bit until the Thanksgiving Holiday kicks in.

Image
https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

I would say oct/early November is traditionally a low travel period in the US. So I will see if you just see normal Seasonality in the numbers.

Midwestindy: thanks for the graph. Definitely backs up what I've noticed the past 2-3 weeks.
I agree on October/early November traditionally being slow. That didn't seem to be the case during much of October though, when the loads reached their highest numbers since early March. Especially around Columbus Day weekend.
Anecdotally I'm flying to SJD next week and the flights both ways appear WIDE open (less than half full). But I'm flying on off-peak days.
I know SJD is one of the markets that lots of capacity was added to going forward into the winter season.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:49 am

"During the stay-home advisory, Chicagoans are urged to go out only for work, school, medical appointments, groceries, take-out food and pharmaceuticals."
https://chicago.suntimes.com/city-hall/ ... -lightfoot

Will be interesting to see if more cities/states follow suit, if so this could really whittle down demand for a month or so. States & cities in the South likely won't follow suit, but Northeast seems quite possible.
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32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:04 am

Midwestindy wrote:
"During the stay-home advisory, Chicagoans are urged to go out only for work, school, medical appointments, groceries, take-out food and pharmaceuticals."
https://chicago.suntimes.com/city-hall/ ... -lightfoot

Will be interesting to see if more cities/states follow suit, if so this could really whittle down demand for a month or so. States & cities in the South likely won't follow suit, but Northeast seems quite possible.

Or does it make trips to place like Mexico even more popular?
 
TW870
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:15 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
At a discreet tactical level of capacity planning, yes they are only making decisions on a 30-90 timeline. Yes, I agree with that.

However at a high-level strategic view of capacity planning, they are making longer-term decisions as to how to scale the size of their operations, fleet, employment, and infrastructure based on a range of scenarios for 2021 and 2022. Things that impact more of the fixed-cost side of the business.


Agree completely with this. I am wondering how Pfizer's very strong initial vaccine results are impacting those decisions. My big question is if any of northern summer 2021 is salvageable, which it might be if the vaccine roll-out goes very well, and thus if some of the travel restrictions are lifted between the US and Europe. I think business travel is going to stay extremely soft for corporate risk management reasons, but leisure actually generates decent revenue for the US3 on the Atlantic for the summer. A lot of people will buy expensive business class seats for trips to France, Spain, Italy, etc. Those trips could very much be back on with a good vaccine roll out, which might even make some of the summer seasonal flying come back. But if realistic vaccination doesn't really start until Q3, I think next summer is toast. I'm debating shopping for Europe tickets for next summer, but still want to wait on more vaccine news before I buy.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Nov 13, 2020 6:53 am

I think domestic booking will be trending upwards again, latest in spring probably earlier. Look at China, they are already almost back to normal. Now in a democratic country you can not crack down hard and so we are in the mess we are but it will get better. International travel on the other side is a different thing. The vaccination plan will be different, priorities will be different and therefore it could be, that there will be different rules in play for a while suppressing demand.

TATL might therefore still be dead next year, while domestic travel could be back up to 80-90%. My estimate is that we will see a sharp uptick in bookings from April onwards, when vaccination will effectively have started and it gets warmer again.
Now lets see if Pfizer can handle the logistical nightmare that their product creates.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Nov 13, 2020 7:47 am

FluidFlow wrote:
I think domestic booking will be trending upwards again, latest in spring probably earlier. Look at China, they are already almost back to normal. Now in a democratic country you can not crack down hard and so we are in the mess we are but it will get better. International travel on the other side is a different thing. The vaccination plan will be different, priorities will be different and therefore it could be, that there will be different rules in play for a while suppressing demand.

TATL might therefore still be dead next year, while domestic travel could be back up to 80-90%. My estimate is that we will see a sharp uptick in bookings from April onwards, when vaccination will effectively have started and it gets warmer again.
Now lets see if Pfizer can handle the logistical nightmare that their product creates.

They say the other vaccines are only weeks behind
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Nov 13, 2020 3:45 pm

The covid statistics are worsening here in our Seattle area. My neighboring county does far better than Seattle but we are seeing more infections. Everyone I know has decided it is time to tighten up our social distancing a couple notches. I think it will be noticeable at SeaTac. I will be amongst the first in line for the vaccine when they announce it is my demographics turn.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
N766UA
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Nov 13, 2020 3:57 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
Now lets see if Pfizer can handle the logistical nightmare that their product creates.


A US Army 4-star is actually in charge of the logistics and distribution of the vaccine. General Perna says they’re ready to go within 24 hours. Take it for what it’s worth.
 
Miamiairport
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:27 pm

LOT767301ER wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
Really a shame to see the number of people that elect to take non-essential trips in the midst of this health emergency.
Each person risk becoming or causing a further rise in the grim national statistics.

#StayHomeStaySafeSaveLives


Im trying to take as many as possible. Its even a bigger shame to see people that want to hide in their basements forever scaring others to do the same.


Particularly that the number of false positives these tests are giving. Also as explained by a leading microbiologist living in Germany these tests will pick up small traces of a Corona virus in the young which will never be become problematic for any healthy person. It's like taking a breathalyzer test in which you drank a beer 3 hours ago. An indication will show alcohol in your system but in no way would you be considered intoxicated or even under the influence.

I've been traveling the entire time, including when no one was wearing a mask and haven't had one moment of illness. Again, the CNN panic porn.
 
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2nd2none
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 16, 2020 12:20 pm

Sunday November 15 2020 again won the weekdays race at 978,297. 29 % above the average of the 6 weekdays ahead at 758,888?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 16, 2020 2:08 pm

Preliminary December capacity is up vs November (numbers for G4 are actually slightly higher as some of their airports aren't included in the report)

Most airports are still down significantly, but a few small/mid-sized airports are up big, for obvious reasons:

CUN
SJD
PVR
JAC
EYW
BZN
MTJ
HDN
e.t.c

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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:38 pm

Bookings went back in the right direction last week, although I don't know how long they will hold before the restrictions begin to weigh them down.

Restrictions(or lack thereof) in places like Florida, the Caribbean, Mexico, Arizona, e.t.c are going to be key to seeing what happens with demand. I think we've seen that origin restrictions have much less impact than destination restrictions....

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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:51 pm

Western states of California, Oregon, and Washington jointly announced 14-day quarantine while also asking residents not to travel out of state during the holidays.
Some regions like San Francisco also instituting their own 14-day quarantine for travellers outside the area.

https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/11/13/calif ... dvisories/

Should hopefully help slow travel demand in and out of the 3 states.
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Osubuckeyes
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 16, 2020 6:16 pm

UPlog wrote:
Western states of California, Oregon, and Washington jointly announced 14-day quarantine while also asking residents not to travel out of state during the holidays.
Some regions like San Francisco also instituting their own 14-day quarantine for travellers outside the area.

https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/11/13/calif ... dvisories/

Should hopefully help slow travel demand in and out of the 3 states.


It should be noted that this is completely voluntary for now. They are urging travelers to quarantine. People with plans for Thanksgiving may not be stopped by this IMO.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 16, 2020 6:55 pm

Osubuckeyes wrote:
UPlog wrote:
Western states of California, Oregon, and Washington jointly announced 14-day quarantine while also asking residents not to travel out of state during the holidays.
Some regions like San Francisco also instituting their own 14-day quarantine for travellers outside the area.

https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/11/13/calif ... dvisories/

Should hopefully help slow travel demand in and out of the 3 states.


It should be noted that this is completely voluntary for now. They are urging travelers to quarantine. People with plans for Thanksgiving may not be stopped by this IMO.


It's my recollection that the vast majority of states have had some sort of quarantine recommendation/requirement or travel advisory since March, although some may have gone away in late summer/early fall I'm not sure. Most are not enforced or publicized, so no one knows about them.

I think the only states with true restrictions are Alaska & Hawaii requiring testing, plus Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New York, Vermont, and Rhode Island which are supposed to require you to fill out a form upon arrival.

Other than those states, most of which aren't major tourist centers, most travelers probably wouldn't even know they were in a state with travel restrictions.
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:39 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Osubuckeyes wrote:
UPlog wrote:
Western states of California, Oregon, and Washington jointly announced 14-day quarantine while also asking residents not to travel out of state during the holidays.
Some regions like San Francisco also instituting their own 14-day quarantine for travellers outside the area.

https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/11/13/calif ... dvisories/

Should hopefully help slow travel demand in and out of the 3 states.


It should be noted that this is completely voluntary for now. They are urging travelers to quarantine. People with plans for Thanksgiving may not be stopped by this IMO.


It's my recollection that the vast majority of states have had some sort of quarantine recommendation/requirement or travel advisory since March, although some may have gone away in late summer/early fall I'm not sure. Most are not enforced or publicized, so no one knows about them.

I think the only states with true restrictions are Alaska & Hawaii requiring testing, plus Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New York, Vermont, and Rhode Island which are supposed to require you to fill out a form upon arrival.

Other than those states, most of which aren't major tourist centers, most travelers probably wouldn't even know they were in a state with travel restrictions.


I was in Chicago a few weeks ago and as I was coming back from downtown to ORD on the Blue Line I saw flashing signs on the highway to quarantine if you were coming in from out of state. But nada anywhere at the airport or on the flight. Most of these ordinances are about as enforceable as NYC J walking. Not to mention who can keep tabs of what 50 individual states might do.

Now if in January we get another and more draconian lockdown (or states are forced to do same) then maybe travel restrictions will severely slowdown air travel. But until then if you're flying you don't know and don't care. I certainly don't.
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:21 pm

Osubuckeyes wrote:
UPlog wrote:
Western states of California, Oregon, and Washington jointly announced 14-day quarantine while also asking residents not to travel out of state during the holidays.
Some regions like San Francisco also instituting their own 14-day quarantine for travellers outside the area.

https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/11/13/calif ... dvisories/

Should hopefully help slow travel demand in and out of the 3 states.


It should be noted that this is completely voluntary for now. They are urging travelers to quarantine. People with plans for Thanksgiving may not be stopped by this IMO.

And if your quarantine your quarantine location would be the family member your having thanksgiving with probably
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:11 am

Isn’t there a way to correlate the booking trends with actual TSA numbers? After glancing over the TSA reports it’s been flat or slightly declining since the 1M+ day a few weeks back. The previous booking reports should have indicated that was going to happen. It would seem you can predict future TSA numbers but I’m not seeing it based on cursory reading. I’m interested to know if these booking report sources are somewhat accurate and properly predicting future TSA numbers.

On another note, I’ve never seen commercial FOB volume remotely close to how busy it is now. I’ve flown over 40K NM in the last couple months and it’s mind boggling. I saw it developing a while back but it keeps growing and it’s almost 100% suits. I’ve had to wait 2 hours for fuel when in the past it was 15-20 min max. Im having to schedule “days” in advance to get my airplane ready when I used to call night before. The 135’s (and annoying gray birds) are booming. I have no idea the overall impact on 121 ops but it would be interesting to know. Unfortunately it’s not reported (as far as I know) via traditional sources so I’m not sure how that could be calculated. I get the feeling it’s pretty big.
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 17, 2020 11:36 am

75driver wrote:
Isn’t there a way to correlate the booking trends with actual TSA numbers? After glancing over the TSA reports it’s been flat or slightly declining since the 1M+ day a few weeks back. The previous booking reports should have indicated that was going to happen. It would seem you can predict future TSA numbers but I’m not seeing it based on cursory reading. I’m interested to know if these booking report sources are somewhat accurate and properly predicting future TSA numbers.

On another note, I’ve never seen commercial FOB volume remotely close to how busy it is now. I’ve flown over 40K NM in the last couple months and it’s mind boggling. I saw it developing a while back but it keeps growing and it’s almost 100% suits. I’ve had to wait 2 hours for fuel when in the past it was 15-20 min max. Im having to schedule “days” in advance to get my airplane ready when I used to call night before. The 135’s (and annoying gray birds) are booming. I have no idea the overall impact on 121 ops but it would be interesting to know. Unfortunately it’s not reported (as far as I know) via traditional sources so I’m not sure how that could be calculated. I get the feeling it’s pretty big.


Yes there is : Bookings are based on Dreams and TSA is based on Facts?
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 17, 2020 12:33 pm

75driver wrote:
Isn’t there a way to correlate the booking trends with actual TSA numbers?


The goal of booking trends is to outline what airline cash burn is doing, the goal isn't to estimate that on Dec 21 there will be XYZ passengers.That wouldn't be particularly insightful. Also, when I created this thread there was a separate TSA thread.

Below, circled are periods where airlines were receiving large intakes of bookings, which drastically brought down cash burn. Dashed lines are periods with drop-offs in bookings, and increases in cash burn.
Image

If you just follow TSA screenings you would have no idea there was a large jump in cash burn in July/Early August, based on this graph
Image

75driver wrote:
After glancing over the TSA reports it’s been flat or slightly declining since the 1M+ day a few weeks back. The previous booking reports should have indicated that was going to happen.


1. You are overanalyzing the TSA numbers, the numbers should obviously decrease as the days with 1M+ were a big Fall break travel period, just like there will be an increase in TSA at the end of this week and through next. You don't need much data to tell you that.....

2. They did show that would happen

2nd2none wrote:
Yes there is : Bookings are based on Dreams and TSA is based on Facts?


Considering this thread is about bookings, it's odd you keep posting stuff like this, if you don't like it feel free to not follow this thread.
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 17, 2020 12:47 pm

Midwestindy wrote:

2nd2none wrote:
Yes there is : Bookings are based on Dreams and TSA is based on Facts?


Considering this thread is about bookings, it's odd you keep posting stuff like this, if you don't like it feel free to not follow this thread.


I believe the TSA numbers is a result of bookings, or am I wrong?

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