FluidFlow wrote:@Midwestindy: Are the bookings you list actual new bookings or are there also "rebookings" included. So when I change my itinerary will it be counted as a new booking or will it stay valid. Also do increased booking numbers really correlate with cash burn? On a first degree I would say yes, but 50 bookings at 100$ and 100 bookings at 50$ will not influence cash burn.
It's net bookings as DoctorVenkman mentioned, and most carriers reported voucher/credit/e.t.c redemptions are at around 10% of their intakes compared to 3-5% in normal times. So, not an "enormous" jump regardless.
In addition, airfares have been slightly rising since mid-summer, as outlined in the Q3 earnings calls. Therefore increases in booking volumes should directly translate to decreased cash burn, in a sense basically the only thing that is flexing cash burn up or down now is bookings since costs have all been shrunk.
FluidFlow wrote:This is especially a problem for legacy carrier with a high cost base. If F9 increases bookings it will actually help cash burn (as base fares are anyway rock bottom and F9 will make the money elsewhere), while when UA/AA/etc. matches ULCC fares to increase booking volumes the cash burn will not stop significantly because to a certain degree more pax=more cost (travelers still expect a certain degree of service).
Not sure I follow, if airfares remain flat at current levels and bookings increase, cash burn should go down. Unless of course you add back costs(capacity) faster than demand, which shouldn't be an issue as most carriers don't need to grow capacity as they aren't operating near 90-100% LFs.