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FluidFlow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 17, 2020 12:58 pm

@Midwestindy: Are the bookings you list actual new bookings or are there also "rebookings" included. So when I change my itinerary will it be counted as a new booking or will it stay valid. Also do increased booking numbers really correlate with cash burn? On a first degree I would say yes, but 50 bookings at 100$ and 100 bookings at 50$ will not influence cash burn. This is especially a problem for legacy carrier with a high cost base. If F9 increases bookings it will actually help cash burn (as base fares are anyway rock bottom and F9 will make the money elsewhere), while when UA/AA/etc. matches ULCC fares to increase booking volumes the cash burn will not stop significantly because to a certain degree more pax=more cost (travelers still expect a certain degree of service).
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 17, 2020 2:23 pm

Bookings indicate the volume of purchases for future air travel. Early-on in the pandemic, really up through August, most bookings were extremely close-in, less than 2 weeks before departure. Over the past 3 months, the booking window has expanded, as seen in some of the data/charts posted by Midwestindy. You say the increases in the 15-30 day window, 30-60, 60-90, 90+.
Some of that driven by increased consumer confidence, also with individuals booking future travel over holiday periods. Under "normal" times, 80% of tickets were booked within 1-month of travel, however in normal times that was heavily skewed by business travel closer-in bookings. Leisure historically had a larger/longer booking window, and we have started to see some of that drift out over the past few months.

TSA numbers represent day-of screenings. As we've seen its held pretty steady in the 30-40% range of 2019. There has been a slight bit of seasonality and the obvious day-of-the-week varation.
In normal times, Fridays were typically the busiest travel day of the week. Now, with the 85% drop in business travel, Sundays are the busiest travel day of the week.
 
DoctorVenkman
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 17, 2020 2:40 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
@Midwestindy: Are the bookings you list actual new bookings or are there also "rebookings" included. So when I change my itinerary will it be counted as a new booking or will it stay valid. Also do increased booking numbers really correlate with cash burn? On a first degree I would say yes, but 50 bookings at 100$ and 100 bookings at 50$ will not influence cash burn. This is especially a problem for legacy carrier with a high cost base. If F9 increases bookings it will actually help cash burn (as base fares are anyway rock bottom and F9 will make the money elsewhere), while when UA/AA/etc. matches ULCC fares to increase booking volumes the cash burn will not stop significantly because to a certain degree more pax=more cost (travelers still expect a certain degree of service).


I would assume those graphs are all net bookings (i.e. subtracting out any cancelations/changes) otherwise they're pretty meaningless. You're right to point this out though, the graphs are not really labeled very well so it's not clear exactly what metric is being presented.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:26 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
@Midwestindy: Are the bookings you list actual new bookings or are there also "rebookings" included. So when I change my itinerary will it be counted as a new booking or will it stay valid. Also do increased booking numbers really correlate with cash burn? On a first degree I would say yes, but 50 bookings at 100$ and 100 bookings at 50$ will not influence cash burn.


It's net bookings as DoctorVenkman mentioned, and most carriers reported voucher/credit/e.t.c redemptions are at around 10% of their intakes compared to 3-5% in normal times. So, not an "enormous" jump regardless.

In addition, airfares have been slightly rising since mid-summer, as outlined in the Q3 earnings calls. Therefore increases in booking volumes should directly translate to decreased cash burn, in a sense basically the only thing that is flexing cash burn up or down now is bookings since costs have all been shrunk.

FluidFlow wrote:
This is especially a problem for legacy carrier with a high cost base. If F9 increases bookings it will actually help cash burn (as base fares are anyway rock bottom and F9 will make the money elsewhere), while when UA/AA/etc. matches ULCC fares to increase booking volumes the cash burn will not stop significantly because to a certain degree more pax=more cost (travelers still expect a certain degree of service).


Not sure I follow, if airfares remain flat at current levels and bookings increase, cash burn should go down. Unless of course you add back costs(capacity) faster than demand, which shouldn't be an issue as most carriers don't need to grow capacity as they aren't operating near 90-100% LFs.
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tphuang
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 19, 2020 2:24 pm

https://ir.united.com/node/24241/html
not great news for domestic booking
"United Airlines, Inc. ("United"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of United Airlines Holdings, Inc. ("UAL" and, together with United, the "Company"), continues to see a significant impact in demand for air travel. In the last week, ending November 18, 2020, there has been a deceleration in system bookings and an uptick in cancellations as a result of the recent spike in COVID-19 cases. The Company does not currently expect the recovery from COVID-19 to follow a linear path and, as such, the Company's actual flown capacity may differ materially from its currently scheduled capacity. The Company's scheduled capacity for the fourth quarter of 2020 is now expected to decrease at least 55% year-over-year, as compared to the Company's previous guidance of a decrease of approximately 55% year-over-year.

At this time, the Company continues to expect total revenue to be down by approximately 67% in the fourth quarter of 2020 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2019.

The Company continues to expect average daily cash burn during the fourth quarter of 2020 to be approximately $15 million to $20 million, plus $10 million of average debt principal payments and severance payments per day. For this purpose, "cash burn" is defined as net cash from operations, less investing and financing activities. Proceeds from the issuance of new debt (excluding expected aircraft financing), government grants associated with the Payroll Support Program of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (the "CARES Act"), issuance of new stock, net proceeds from the sale of short-term and other investments and changes in certain restricted cash balances are not included in this figure.
"
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 19, 2020 2:57 pm

AS

https://investor.alaskaair.com/static-f ... fac9f0ede9

"October cash burn was approximately $97 million, which was lower than cash burn in September, primarily due to improved ticket sales. We expect November cash burn will be approximately $125 million to $150 million given recent softening in the demand environment. We believe that renewed restrictions by many state and local governments have negatively impacted demand in the immediate term"
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PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 19, 2020 3:33 pm

Yep......the next 30-90 days are going to be a rollercoaster, but you can start to hopefully see some light at the end of the tunnel toward Q3 2021.

I'd imagine many people are second-guessing VFR related trips over the holidays with spikes in cases and the call to curtain social gatherings from multiple households., but I'd venture to guess leisure-destination travel will likely hold more steady in the near-term and less susceptible to cancelations.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 19, 2020 6:00 pm

Good, CDC is formally out today recommending not to travel for Thanksgiving.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/n ... 779090001/

Also nice to see airports, like my local LAX encouraging people not to travel unless really necessary.
https://twitter.com/flyLAXairport/statu ... 7467085825

Hopefully, Americans head the advice and avoid non-essential travel into 2021.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 19, 2020 6:51 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Good, CDC is formally out today recommending not to travel for Thanksgiving.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/n ... 779090001/

Also nice to see airports, like my local LAX encouraging people not to travel unless really necessary.
https://twitter.com/flyLAXairport/statu ... 7467085825

Hopefully, Americans head the advice and avoid non-essential travel into 2021.

It won’t help. Plus you got all these college kids that have to get home now cus second semester is gonna be online.
 
Miamiairport
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 19, 2020 6:57 pm

By now most people have made their holiday travel plans for Thanksgiving. A fair number aren't going to cancel. But again people follow the leads of morons. Instead of concentrating on improving or maintaining your general good health they will sit on their obsess butt eating junk food watching junk content and when they become infected from another family member in equally poor physical shape it's a problem.

This idiotic situation just looks like it will go on and on.
 
Tiredofhumanity
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:04 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
By now most people have made their holiday travel plans for Thanksgiving. A fair number aren't going to cancel. But again people follow the leads of morons. Instead of concentrating on improving or maintaining your general good health they will sit on their obsess butt eating junk food watching junk content and when they become infected from another family member in equally poor physical shape it's a problem.

This idiotic situation just looks like it will go on and on.


Yep, or they'll just cancel their flights and clog the roads in their luxury 15 mpg "pickup trucks" instead.
 
Brickell305
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:04 pm

32andBelow wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
Good, CDC is formally out today recommending not to travel for Thanksgiving.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/n ... 779090001/

Also nice to see airports, like my local LAX encouraging people not to travel unless really necessary.
https://twitter.com/flyLAXairport/statu ... 7467085825

Hopefully, Americans head the advice and avoid non-essential travel into 2021.

It won’t help. Plus you got all these college kids that have to get home now cus second semester is gonna be online.

Well you have UA above noting that demand seems to have stalled again. Also, per the article below, B6 has cut flights right after adding them for Thanksgiving:

https://crankyflier.com/2020/11/16/delt ... ses-again/

I doubt they are doing that unless they’re seeing cancellations.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:29 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I'd imagine many people are second-guessing VFR related trips over the holidays with spikes in cases and the call to curtain social gatherings from multiple households., but I'd venture to guess leisure-destination travel will likely hold more steady in the near-term and less susceptible to cancelations.


Not surprising UA would be disproportionately impacted due to their lack of leisure exposure

Looks like WN is fairing better as of today:

"Even with more cancellations, Southwest executives said flights are getting fuller and they expect November to be an improvement over October. “We’re still looking at a better month,” Mr. Kelly said.

“We’ve already seen a seasonal uptick in cases, and that’s concerning,” Southwest Chief Executive Officer Gary Kelly said on a conference call. “Cancellations are up, but it looks like December will be in line with what we’re seeing in November, and maybe slightly improved.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... day-travel
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32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:46 pm

I know a lot of people with Mexico trips planned for this winter.
 
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B350pilot
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Nov 20, 2020 6:06 pm

any new updates to booking trends? Thanksgiving travel ? Thank You
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Nov 20, 2020 8:23 pm

B350pilot wrote:
any new updates to booking trends? Thanksgiving travel ? Thank You


Probably need to wait for the next 1-2 weeks of data, as of now Florida, Caribbean, Mexico, e.t.c are still steady. Elsewhere, there have been drop-offs from some of the larger metros
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maps4ltd
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Nov 20, 2020 8:49 pm

I'm headed to Aspen over Thanksgiving on American (through ORD both ways). All the flights look like they will be full except for the final ORD-STL on Sunday Nov 29.
Next flights:
Who knows? :/
 
B747forever
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Nov 20, 2020 11:15 pm

Just came off DXB-LAX and the flight was about 50% full. Talking to flight attendants, the load seems to have picked up a little.
Work Hard, Fly Right
 
AmericanAir88
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Nov 21, 2020 1:54 pm

Just flew CID-DFW-MIA-LGA on AA. This was on a Monday.

All three flights were packed. DFW-MIA was a 777 with probably 85% of it full.

MIA-LGA was a 738 with 100% capacity filled. Every seat was taken.

Definitely more people flying this week.
 
RicFlyer
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Nov 21, 2020 2:10 pm

On 11/20 for only the second time since the COVID slowdown over 1,000,000 passed through TSA screening: 1,019,836. The only other time the number passed 1 million was on October 18.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput
 
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LAXintl
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:46 pm

B747forever wrote:
Just came off DXB-LAX and the flight was about 50% full. Talking to flight attendants, the load seems to have picked up a little.


:old:

Dont forget 14-day self-quarantine that went into effect for arrivals into California last week.

https://www.flylax.com/travelsafely
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
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UPlog
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Nov 21, 2020 5:11 pm

RicFlyer wrote:
On 11/20 for only the second time since the COVID slowdown over 1,000,000 passed through TSA screening: 1,019,836. The only other time the number passed 1 million was on October 18.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput


Seems to be a discrepancy.

TSA spokesperson says 975,294 people screened Friday, Nov. 20.

https://twitter.com/TSA_Northeast/statu ... 9181604865
I fly your boxes
 
B747forever
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Nov 21, 2020 10:04 pm

LAXintl wrote:
B747forever wrote:
Just came off DXB-LAX and the flight was about 50% full. Talking to flight attendants, the load seems to have picked up a little.


:old:

Dont forget 14-day self-quarantine that went into effect for arrivals into California last week.

https://www.flylax.com/travelsafely


Well, that is still only an advisory/recommendation, will be back at work on Monday.
Work Hard, Fly Right
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Nov 21, 2020 10:50 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Good, CDC is formally out today recommending not to travel for Thanksgiving.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/n ... 779090001/

Also nice to see airports, like my local LAX encouraging people not to travel unless really necessary.
https://twitter.com/flyLAXairport/statu ... 7467085825

Hopefully, Americans head the advice and avoid non-essential travel into 2021.


As long as the LA Airport Authority doesnt seek a bailout, I am fine with them preaching not to travel.

But what I find from a lot of politicians/authorities/doctors/media preaching the holier than thou approach to this virus: They don’t have family that they havent seen in months, They don’t follow their own rules (as we saw in California last week), they seek a large bailout due to distressed finances, and/or they are not in danger of losing their jobs and destroying their personal finances if things shut down.

People went along in the spring as this was new, but I am not so sure this time.

I am not seeing empty planes like I did in the spring during the first outbreak.

I am also not seeing massive cancellations like I did in July during the summer outbreak.

That’s tells me that the traveling public has outbreak fatigue, restriction fatigue, and lockdown fatigue.

It also tells me that Thanksgiving is a lot more important in peoples minds then Easter or Memorial or Independence Day.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Nov 21, 2020 11:15 pm

It's really hard to see right now.

Thanksgiving looked great with bookings were up and airlines added seats but we are definitely seeing and going to see people cancel. The holidays will always have some demand I worry between them and in January and February . We have already seen some mountain towns (ski) starting to ask people not to come or rent houses to out of staters. That's terrible for the airlines if that increases as demand to the ski airports looks strong much like this summer. People then went to national parks to be outside now people have decided sking is outside and they want to go. No one knows right now, it's crazy what demand will do. Only thing I think is obvious is business travel is done for 2021 , when leisure people come back is so hard to know!
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:10 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
It's really hard to see right now.

Thanksgiving looked great with bookings were up and airlines added seats but we are definitely seeing and going to see people cancel. The holidays will always have some demand I worry between them and in January and February . We have already seen some mountain towns (ski) starting to ask people not to come or rent houses to out of staters. That's terrible for the airlines if that increases as demand to the ski airports looks strong much like this summer. People then went to national parks to be outside now people have decided sking is outside and they want to go. No one knows right now, it's crazy what demand will do. Only thing I think is obvious is business travel is done for 2021 , when leisure people come back is so hard to know!

People are def going skiing. And the reservations resorts are selling out
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:55 am

Ok.....there is a lot to unpack in some of these recent comments / posts:

1) Antidotal one-off observation of "packed" planes:
- The airlines at a high-level have gotten the capacity supply vs. demand equation much more balanced over the past 3-4 months. Capacity and network has been scaled down and demand has gotten up to a level were most flights are going out with more traditional load factors. For the legacies, system-wide load factors are generally in the 50-60% range, but about 50% of flights are going out with 80% LF. Obviously a bit different on DL with middle seat blocking, but still the same construct holds. Flights are rarely going out empty and/or single-digit passenger counts. LF are up since there are just simply that much less capacity / flights. Additionally, particularly AA & WN are offering fire-sale fares on some routes to fill planes.

2) Near-term impact on demand:
- Like I said earlier, VFR type demand could be impacted if people second-guess traveling specifically for large family gatherings. However, a lot of travel this year is actually for leisure / sun markets of solo, couple, and families. This demand is going to be more resilliant, and does not carry the same risk of large family gatherings. People are still traveling, depsite what has transpired over the past several weeks.

3) Ski markets:
- Destination ski resorts and travel have some of their own unique challenges with COVID. However its not as bleak as you suggest. Currently its early season with limited lifts, limited terrain, thus limited capacity. Destination ski resort traffic really doesn't ramp-up until the December holiday period. Yes, many places, particularly in CO have ordered restaurants to close in-person dining, and short-term rentals to limit the number of households. Destination ski travel, like all types of travel was anticipated to be down somewhat this year, but also somewhat resiliant. Skiing is a sport that has high barriers to entry and its expensive. Its not like it was going to be a sudden boon this year and replace other types of travel. Its just that die-hard dedicated skiers have a higher propensity to travel. I'm one, and I intend to ski out west this year, but my first trip isn't planned until the end of Jan.

Things aren't going backwards. Travel is going to hold steady, status quo outside of holiday periods in the forseeable future. Jan & Feb - its cold in the northern half the country and people want to escape. 30-40% passenger counts of what we are likely to see through mid-Feb.

Without getting political and just stating how it is. ~50% of people are genuniely scared of COVID, the other 50% is trying to figure out who to live with COVID. Many of those truly scared were never traveling via air or considering traveling via air in the first place. Those that have been are likely to continue to travel will do so in a manner than they see safe and fit.

Business travel is down 85% from normal and not likely to rebound much until we get the cases under control and get well into the vaccination process. There is optimism and a light at the end of the tunnel. For the next 3-6 months, its going to be status quo and basically on essential travel and/or travel that requires being physically on-site. Still more "boots" than "suits" traveling. A good proportion of business travel will return when its safe. The last 10-20% is a bit unknown based on chances in the nature of work, remote vs. office, and tech.

I have been traveling almost every week since early September. 50/50 mix of work and personal trips. My travel is safe, socially distant, and never once have I felt unsafe.
That being said, I have zero issues flying on an airplane, but on the flip side I have zero desire to eat at crowded restaurant and won't meet-up some some of my friends who have been rather careless during all of this.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Nov 22, 2020 1:29 pm

B747forever wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
B747forever wrote:
Just came off DXB-LAX and the flight was about 50% full. Talking to flight attendants, the load seems to have picked up a little.


:old:

Dont forget 14-day self-quarantine that went into effect for arrivals into California last week.

https://www.flylax.com/travelsafely


Well, that is still only an advisory/recommendation, will be back at work on Monday.


Funny you mention this, I had actually been in LA for the past few weeks before leaving yesterday. The LA area was more busy than any other city I've been to since COVID began, all the major LA spots/malls felt nearly as crowded as normal, with the exception of Hollywood Blvd.

I was trying to find any signs, PA announcements, or warnings on the advisory/recommendation, but I didn't see any at LAX or anywhere in the LA area. These recommendations/advisories are essentially worthless for out-of-state visitors, because either they have no idea it exists or there is zero enforcement mechanism.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
1) Antidotal one-off observation of "packed" planes:
- The airlines at a high-level have gotten the capacity supply vs. demand equation much more balanced over the past 3-4 months. Capacity and network has been scaled down and demand has gotten up to a level were most flights are going out with more traditional load factors. For the legacies, system-wide load factors are generally in the 50-60% range, but about 50% of flights are going out with 80% LF. Obviously a bit different on DL with middle seat blocking, but still the same construct holds. Flights are rarely going out empty and/or single-digit passenger counts. LF are up since there are just simply that much less capacity / flights. Additionally, particularly AA & WN are offering fire-sale fares on some routes to fill planes.


Yep, 95% of the flights I've taken since June have either been oversold or 80%+ full.

That being said, I flew through Phoenix yesterday and it was so crowded people were "climbing over" each other to get to their gate, the news even covered it.
https://twitter.com/evanperez/status/13 ... 70304?s=20

It seems like AA at least is doing a good job with timing their connections even with fewer flights, leading to airports that are quite crowded during banks.

Good for the financials, not very good for "optics"
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WidebodyPTV
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:01 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Funny you mention this, I had actually been in LA for the past few weeks before leaving yesterday. The LA area was more busy than any other city I've been to since COVID began, all the major LA spots/malls felt nearly as crowded as normal, with the exception of Hollywood Blvd.


Crowded as normal? Nearly every single touristy attractions has remained closed since March, as have (other than a short reprieve) bars, nightclubs, etc. In LA County, fitness centers and indoor dining have remained closed (other than a short reprieve); in Orange County, they were allowed to re-open to limited capacity, but few chose to do so. Large portions of malls remain closed, as do oodles of local parks, trails, etc. remained closed. Do not be deceived by "large crowds" -- often it's a mirage (e.g. limited space for people to eat outside). No, it's not like it was in April, when virtually everything was closed. But I can still make it from San Clemente to Burbank in just over 90 minutes during rush hour... when "normally," I'd be lucky to get out of Orange County in 90-minutes.

I was trying to find any signs, PA announcements, or warnings on the advisory/recommendation, but I didn't see any at LAX or anywhere in the LA area. These recommendations/advisories are essentially worthless for out-of-state visitors, because either they have no idea it exists or there is zero enforcement mechanism.


Did you miss all the billboards and electronic signage encouraging people to stay home? They're literally everywhere, including several that have been off Sunset Blvd for months (which normally sees new billboards every few days, literally).

Yep, 95% of the flights I've taken since June have either been oversold or 80%+ full.

That being said, I flew through Phoenix yesterday and it was so crowded people were "climbing over" each other to get to their gate, the news even covered it.
https://twitter.com/evanperez/status/13 ... 70304?s=20

It seems like AA at least is doing a good job with timing their connections even with fewer flights, leading to airports that are quite crowded during banks.

Good for the financials, not very good for "optics"


There's plenty of anecdotal evidence that people are staying at home. Here's a great example: as recently as yesterday, you could fly UA or AA nonstop between LAX/ORD, with solid availability on both Wednesday and next Sunday... for less than $80 (!) RT. The fare had been trending much higher -- not as high as it traditionally is for the Holiday weekend, but no where close to $80. (I observed the same trend on several other routes). Not a single doubt in my mind that mass cancellations lead to these unprecedented Holiday fares. Most of these flights will probably depart full -- tens of millions of Americans believe the threat of COVID is no worse than the common cold, after all -- and a.net will suddenly declare it's proof things are turning around...
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:36 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Funny you mention this, I had actually been in LA for the past few weeks before leaving yesterday. The LA area was more busy than any other city I've been to since COVID began, all the major LA spots/malls felt nearly as crowded as normal, with the exception of Hollywood Blvd.


Crowded as normal? Nearly every single touristy attractions has remained closed since March, as have (other than a short reprieve) bars, nightclubs, etc. In LA County, fitness centers and indoor dining have remained closed (other than a short reprieve); in Orange County, they were allowed to re-open to limited capacity, but few chose to do so. Large portions of malls remain closed, as do oodles of local parks, trails, etc. remained closed. Do not be deceived by "large crowds" -- often it's a mirage (e.g. limited space for people to eat outside). No, it's not like it was in April, when virtually everything was closed. But I can still make it from San Clemente to Burbank in just over 90 minutes during rush hour... when "normally," I'd be lucky to get out of Orange County in 90-minutes.

Midwestindy wrote:
I was trying to find any signs, PA announcements, or warnings on the advisory/recommendation, but I didn't see any at LAX or anywhere in the LA area. These recommendations/advisories are essentially worthless for out-of-state visitors, because either they have no idea it exists or there is zero enforcement mechanism.


Did you miss all the billboards and electronic signage encouraging people to stay home? They're literally everywhere, including several that have been off Sunset Blvd for months (which normally sees new billboards every few days, literally).


Without getting too off-track here: Even accounting for capacity restrictions, Rodeo, Griffin Observatory (outdoor area), the beaches, the malls, e.t.c were all more crowded than any city I have been to since COVID began (with maybe the exception of TPA). There is plenty open even with Disney/Universal & lots of indoor "attractions" closed, although I will admit the lack of serious vehicle traffic was quite noticeable (but also a nice relief).

Drove down Sunset on Saturday, and saw no such signage, then again there are a ridiculous amount of billboards on Sunset so it would be quite easy for those to get lost in the shuffle. My main point is if you want these advisories/recommendations to be effective, you either need to add in enforcement mechanisms or do a better job at spreading awareness outside of the metro/state, neither appears to have been done in this case.

WidebodyPTV wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Yep, 95% of the flights I've taken since June have either been oversold or 80%+ full.

That being said, I flew through Phoenix yesterday and it was so crowded people were "climbing over" each other to get to their gate, the news even covered it.
https://twitter.com/evanperez/status/13 ... 70304?s=20

It seems like AA at least is doing a good job with timing their connections even with fewer flights, leading to airports that are quite crowded during banks.

Good for the financials, not very good for "optics"


There's plenty of anecdotal evidence that people are staying at home. Here's a great example: as recently as yesterday, you could fly UA or AA nonstop between LAX/ORD, with solid availability on both Wednesday and next Sunday... for less than $80 (!) RT. The fare had been trending much higher -- not as high as it traditionally is for the Holiday weekend, but no where close to $80. (I observed the same trend on several other routes). Not a single doubt in my mind that mass cancellations lead to these unprecedented Holiday fares. Most of these flights will probably depart full -- tens of millions of Americans believe the threat of COVID is no worse than the common cold, after all -- and a.net will suddenly declare it's proof things are turning around...


I don't disagree, the fact that some or even most flights are going out full doesn't change the reality of the situation
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 23, 2020 2:25 am

The media is currently having a field day with flight-shaming.

Lead stories on the national news tonight were “OMG 2 M people went through TSA this weekend despite CDC saying to not travel. OMG look at this photos from PHX. OMG look at all this virus spreader OMG fear porn..

I guess that is this years version of the throw away stories they always run around thanksgiving of the mythical busiest travel day of the year and “packed” airport and airplanes.

/facepalm
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:28 am

United had its annual leadership conference virtually last week. A few interesting tidbits from the presentations I saw.

o Pre COVID 40% of bookings business-related and MileagePlus members represented 70% of customers
o Now, 90% of bookings leisure
o Only 10% of MP members have flown since April.
o In survey 7/10 MP members remain concerned about air travel safety
o Post flight customer surveys about safety and satisfaction are stark opposites today -- either customer extremely satisfied, or extremely unsatisfied with the experience
o One upside, today 64% of bookings are directly with UA, not 3rd via party channels
o From network point of view very carefully matching capacity to demand. Pax down 57% as of late Oct, capacity 51%.
o Drastically reduced hub banks, but the priority has been to maintain connections still. As example UA ORD retained 60% of connections vs DL @ DTW that retained ~40% of connectivity options.
o Focus on leisure and VFR demand for winter 2020. Western ski/parks, Hawaii, Florida, Caribbean and Latin America.
o Maximize cash positive flying opportunities internationally - strong cargo destinations
o Lean on partner networks (LH @ FRA, NH @ TYO)
o Kirby does not see real demand traction until atleast 60% of U.S. population vaccinated
o 80-90% business demand will roar back, but take time until companies and employees feel safe. International closures complicate picture.
o 10-20% biz related travel might be gone as technology replaces and travel budgets shrink reducing things like conventions and incentive travel. Its always taken 3-4 years to climb out of major recessions, and this far worse.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:05 pm

LAXintl wrote:
United had its annual leadership conference virtually last week. A few interesting tidbits from the presentations I saw.

o Pre COVID 40% of bookings business-related and MileagePlus members represented 70% of customers
o Now, 90% of bookings leisure
o Only 10% of MP members have flown since April.
o In survey 7/10 MP members remain concerned about air travel safety
o Post flight customer surveys about safety and satisfaction are stark opposites today -- either customer extremely satisfied, or extremely unsatisfied with the experience
o One upside, today 64% of bookings are directly with UA, not 3rd via party channels
o From network point of view very carefully matching capacity to demand. Pax down 57% as of late Oct, capacity 51%.
o Drastically reduced hub banks, but the priority has been to maintain connections still. As example UA ORD retained 60% of connections vs DL @ DTW that retained ~40% of connectivity options.
o Focus on leisure and VFR demand for winter 2020. Western ski/parks, Hawaii, Florida, Caribbean and Latin America.
o Maximize cash positive flying opportunities internationally - strong cargo destinations
o Lean on partner networks (LH @ FRA, NH @ TYO)
o Kirby does not see real demand traction until atleast 60% of U.S. population vaccinated
o 80-90% business demand will roar back, but take time until companies and employees feel safe. International closures complicate picture.
o 10-20% biz related travel might be gone as technology replaces and travel budgets shrink reducing things like conventions and incentive travel. Its always taken 3-4 years to climb out of major recessions, and this far worse.


I might add that the business travel that gets replaced by virtual might be the most lucrative flying for UA and others. Think about the cost to send 3 people business class for 3 days in Asia or Europe. Hotels, meals, ground transportation. Then think about that cost with a Zoom call. Then think about it if a client has to pay for travel.
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:49 pm

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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 23, 2020 2:02 pm

Yesterday was the highest TSA passenger count since 03/16/2020 with 1,047,934 passengers. 2nd time hitting a million in three days.
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:17 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Bookings went back in the right direction last week, although I don't know how long they will hold before the restrictions begin to weigh them down.

Restrictions(or lack thereof) in places like Florida, the Caribbean, Mexico, Arizona, e.t.c are going to be key to seeing what happens with demand. I think we've seen that origin restrictions have much less impact than destination restrictions....

Image
https://www2.arccorp.com/about-us/newsr ... r-15-2020/


First noticeable drop of this wave last week, will be interesting to see next weeks data once Thanksgiving passes

Image
https://www2.arccorp.com/about-us/newsr ... r-22-2020/
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:36 pm

That’s a pretty large drop in leisure travel. No wonder aa and ua made those comments last week.
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:44 pm

LAXintl wrote:
o Only 10% of MP members have flown since April.


:wideeyed:

Basically, United's entire business model has been upended and now chasing an entirely new client profile.
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:52 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
I might add that the business travel that gets replaced by virtual might be the most lucrative flying for UA and others. Think about the cost to send 3 people business class for 3 days in Asia or Europe. Hotels, meals, ground transportation. Then think about that cost with a Zoom call. Then think about it if a client has to pay for travel.


Those companies already know it's expensive. They were paying that much before because it was worth it.

The issue is it might change some decisions at the margins. Also as budgets are going to be slower to come back a lot of J travel may end up in Y.
 
AmericanAir88
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 23, 2020 7:01 pm

What airlines are having the best results from this time of year?

ULCCs or Legacies?
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Nov 23, 2020 8:04 pm

AmericanAir88 wrote:
What airlines are having the best results from this time of year?

ULCCs or Legacies?


ULCCs: G4 is at break even, ULCCs have hubs/focus cities in the places where demand is the highest, especially with winter kicking in soon.
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 24, 2020 1:28 am

LupineChemist wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
I might add that the business travel that gets replaced by virtual might be the most lucrative flying for UA and others. Think about the cost to send 3 people business class for 3 days in Asia or Europe. Hotels, meals, ground transportation. Then think about that cost with a Zoom call. Then think about it if a client has to pay for travel.


Those companies already know it's expensive. They were paying that much before because it was worth it.

The issue is it might change some decisions at the margins. Also as budgets are going to be slower to come back a lot of J travel may end up in Y.


But what they now know is that what used to get in person can actually get done virtually. Maybe not as good but then there’s a huge cost benefit ratio. Companies are going to revamp travel budgets & priorities even when COVID is done. I already see it.
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:25 am

Miamiairport wrote:
LupineChemist wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
I might add that the business travel that gets replaced by virtual might be the most lucrative flying for UA and others. Think about the cost to send 3 people business class for 3 days in Asia or Europe. Hotels, meals, ground transportation. Then think about that cost with a Zoom call. Then think about it if a client has to pay for travel.


Those companies already know it's expensive. They were paying that much before because it was worth it.

The issue is it might change some decisions at the margins. Also as budgets are going to be slower to come back a lot of J travel may end up in Y.


But what they now know is that what used to get in person can actually get done virtually. Maybe not as good but then there’s a huge cost benefit ratio. Companies are going to revamp travel budgets & priorities even when COVID is done. I already see it.


Microsoft said last month that they will be back to pre-pandemic levels of air travel.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/22/microso ... ledge.html

It's impossible to tell how much business travel will be lost for the next 5+ years, because in every crisis, companies look at business travel as one of the first things to cut and say they will cut back biz travel long-term. It's a tale as old as time...
Image
https://www.ustravel.org/sites/default/ ... Report.pdf

I think it is anyones best guess what will happen, but I disagree on your point that "what they now know is that what used to get in person can actually get done virtually." I think that is an over-simplistic way to look at it, I believe most companies always knew certain types of business interaction could be done virtually, but there were a lot of reasons not to convert to more virtual interaction.

Image
https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/Media/D ... Travel.pdf


Conferences, Trade shows, Incentives, Internal Trainings, and likely even Sales Meetings(given the competitive nature of the sales process) will all probably return to pre-COVID levels. The two pieces that are questionable, IMO, are Internal meetings and Client office work.
Last edited by Midwestindy on Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:11 am

With current Covid19 cases skyrocketing to some 200,000 infections per day, I don’t see any light at the end of the tunnel until a vaccine is released. These current numbers are far worse than when everything was shut down. Cities are also starting to impose curfews and stricter guidelines. I think flying is the last thing on people’s minds right now. Just getting through this alive will suffice.
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:24 am

Without getting political or getting into the ethics of travel during a pandemic, the near term numbers show a different picture.

Unless sun/beach markets go into stay-at-home / lockdown, the leisure component is likely to remain where it is today.
Restrictions, quarantines, and such in cities and northern markets on the outbound side don't have the same impact as if they were on the destination side.

Outside of some of the peak days around the holidays we are seeing over the past weekend, its likely to be status quo.
The trajectory may stall. The pure VFR component may see cancelations, but leisure travel to sun/beach and ski markets is likely to be more pandemic resilient.
 
msy2351
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:42 am

Leisure numbers disagree that flying is the last thing on peoples’ minds. Many are fed up with the government overreach and draconian restrictions and are ready to live their lives again.

Common sense says that a virus that isn’t deadly to 99.7% of the population doesn’t warrant practically all of the restrictions out there right now. The media fear porn is the biggest hurdle from an economic recovery.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:47 am

CitizenJustin wrote:
With current Covid19 cases skyrocketing to some 200,000 infections per day, I don’t see any light at the end of the tunnel until a vaccine is released. These current numbers are far worse than when everything was shut down. Cities are also starting to impose curfews and stricter guidelines. I think flying is the last thing on people’s minds right now. Just getting through this alive will suffice.


FWIW case growth is beginning to plateau, and the transmission (& positivity) rates in the states most effected in this wave (ND, SD, WI, IL) is back below 1, indicating the virus spread is declining. Not that this will change media or customer perception, but it is what is happening.
https://rt.live/
Image
Last edited by Midwestindy on Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:47 am

[threeid][/threeid]
msy2351 wrote:
Leisure numbers disagree that flying is the last thing on peoples’ minds. Many are fed up with the government overreach and draconian restrictions and are ready to live their lives again.

Common sense says that a virus that isn’t deadly to 99.7% of the population doesn’t warrant practically all of the restrictions out there right now. The media fear porn is the biggest hurdle from an economic recovery.


This $#!+ is why we’re still fighting a huge uphill battle 9 months later. Unbelievable.
 
msy2351
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:54 am

If the lockdowns worked before, why are they happening again?

If the lockdowns didn’t work before, why are they happening again?

The gross overreaction to Covid was far worse than the actual virus. If you want to go hide at home for the rest of your life, feel free. Everyone else should be able to return to some normalcy.
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Nov 24, 2020 5:27 am

Sunday Nov 22 was again the King of the previous week at 1,047,934, 23 % above the average of the rest of the week at 851,554.
Interesting numbers compared to what was normal before this spektakel, considering the number of red caps it is still low.

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