MaxTrimm wrote:I would prefer if we stayed on the topic of passenger recovery so this thread doesn’t get locked. This is one of my favorite threads and would hate to see it be derailed.
Another slight uptick in passengers week over week, but nothing substantial. Cases are dropping pretty dramatically right now, but it’s definitely too early for the vaccine to be making such a significant case drop. I think an entire lack of traveling the last few weeks is driving them down. I am seeing some say that college basketball tournaments coming up in the next couple months might drive some traffic, but I just don’t see it. I don’t think we eclipse 1m again until mid-to-late March at the soonest, but even Spring Breaks are being largely cancelled nationwide
The 1M target is really irrelevant compared to the YOY number, but it will be at or above 1M for Presidents day weekend.
Also if you are using TSA data, it should also be noted that Jan/Feb are time periods where business travel normally makes up a larger % of overall traffic than any other time of the year. This makes overall YOY % look worse, even though leisure YOY% likely is steadily improving while business travel is likely decreasing or flat on a YOY%.
As I have shown in the data we will see a boost in travel during March, although college basketball tournaments don't drive any meaningful levels of travel outside of host cities.
While lots of colleges "cancelled" Spring Break (I suspect some college kids will still travel on the weekends during normal Spring Break periods if their school cancelled Spring Break), Spring Break travel is not driven by college students outside of some places like FLL, CUN, e.t.c. for the week or so around St. Patricks day. It is driven largely by families, and lots of school districts still have Spring Break.