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LAXintl
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jan 29, 2021 12:13 am

On today's AA earnings they stated their business traffic demand volume continues hanging in the region of 5-10% of historic levels.
 
Chemist
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:05 am

For the US, this shows how foolish the "ignore the pandemic and it will go away, we can't close things or it will hurt the economy" approach was. Look at Canada/Australia, NZ and by minimizing the pandemic results, they have far more normality than the US does. It's not going to rebound until we have the pandemic under control, whatever that takes. Ideally a lot of fast vaccinations so that the virus can't use the USA as a massive mutation factory.
 
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ArcticSEA
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:12 am

Chemist wrote:
It's not going to rebound until we have the pandemic under control, whatever that takes.

Does "whatever that takes" include rescinding the US Constitution?
Good luck. You'll need it.
 
Chemist
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:17 am

ArcticSEA wrote:
Chemist wrote:
It's not going to rebound until we have the pandemic under control, whatever that takes.

Does "whatever that takes" include rescinding the US Constitution?
Good luck. You'll need it.


No. Whatever it takes within the legal framework of government. Rather than dismissing and using the ostrich behavior.
 
MaxTrimm
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:59 pm

750,558 screened by TSA yesterday, Thursday January 28th. Last Thursday was just over 728,000. Slick uptick, but as we’ve seen for months, a near perfect reflection of YOY numbers in the 35-38% range. I’d expect a continued monotonous trend upwards throughout February, but nothing significant.
 
jetwet1
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:26 pm

Miamiairport wrote:

Aren't many of the casinos closed during the week? Not to mention zero trade shows. I guess at some point some flights are just losing too much money and something has to give. Others than maybe a few VFFs what would be the big attraction other than a dirt cheap fare to build miles. Even the EQDs won't get you much unless you upfare to F.


Some on the strip are closed midweek and yes, with no conventions there are plenty of rooms available even at the reduced occupancy limits.

LAS is down about 50%, we were looking (maybe praying is a better phrase) for a bump with March madness, but I don't see anything to indicate that will happen.

My numbers guy is convinced we will start to see an upward trend starting at the end of April, I am thinking it will not happen until 1Q 2022.
 
smokeybandit
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:02 pm

Chemist wrote:
THAT is a large part of why the United States is much more severely affected than almost any other first world country.


That's not true one bit. Just about all first world (specifically western) countries got hit the exact same way, no matter what any country tried to do to stop it.
 
MaxTrimm
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Jan 30, 2021 7:56 pm

I would prefer if we stayed on the topic of passenger recovery so this thread doesn’t get locked. This is one of my favorite threads and would hate to see it be derailed.

Another slight uptick in passengers week over week, but nothing substantial. Cases are dropping pretty dramatically right now, but it’s definitely too early for the vaccine to be making such a significant case drop. I think an entire lack of traveling the last few weeks is driving them down. I am seeing some say that college basketball tournaments coming up in the next couple months might drive some traffic, but I just don’t see it. I don’t think we eclipse 1m again until mid-to-late March at the soonest, but even Spring Breaks are being largely cancelled nationwide
 
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OA412
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:36 pm

Please keep politics out of the discussion. There’s a thread in non aviation where you are free to discuss COVID’s political ramifications.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:16 am

Almost all states are showing improvements on infection rates, this will be reflected in death rates in a few weeks. I am suspecting by the end of February there will be a large number of people largely protected from infection. Air travel could start improving just a few weeks later, except this time it will reflect a trend, not a temporary bump.
 
keithvh2001
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:22 am

MaxTrimm wrote:
750,558 screened by TSA yesterday, Thursday January 28th. Last Thursday was just over 728,000. Slick uptick, but as we’ve seen for months, a near perfect reflection of YOY numbers in the 35-38% range. I’d expect a continued monotonous trend upwards throughout February, but nothing significant.


The 7-day running average of "this year TSA traffic vs. last year" fell to -65.58% on Tuesday January 26. It has since had a rebound to -65.25% on Friday January 29.

That bump may not seem like much, but I do think we've passed the bottom for the period between NYD and President's Day (when we'll probably get a bump).

Also of note, that -65.58% bottom (if it turns it to be a true bottom) was above the bottom during both these periods:

(1) the slump we had between mid-October and Thanksgiving (when the 7-day average went from a high of -62.13% to a low of -66.2% to a high again of -58.97%).

(2) the slump we had between Thanksgiving and Christmas/NYD (when the 7-day average went from the aforementioned high of -58.97% to a low of -68.10% to a high again of -52.33%).

Cautiously optimistic the trend is getting .......... SLOWLY ....... but continually better.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:38 pm

MaxTrimm wrote:
I would prefer if we stayed on the topic of passenger recovery so this thread doesn’t get locked. This is one of my favorite threads and would hate to see it be derailed.

Another slight uptick in passengers week over week, but nothing substantial. Cases are dropping pretty dramatically right now, but it’s definitely too early for the vaccine to be making such a significant case drop. I think an entire lack of traveling the last few weeks is driving them down. I am seeing some say that college basketball tournaments coming up in the next couple months might drive some traffic, but I just don’t see it. I don’t think we eclipse 1m again until mid-to-late March at the soonest, but even Spring Breaks are being largely cancelled nationwide


The 1M target is really irrelevant compared to the YOY number, but it will be at or above 1M for Presidents day weekend.

Also if you are using TSA data, it should also be noted that Jan/Feb are time periods where business travel normally makes up a larger % of overall traffic than any other time of the year. This makes overall YOY % look worse, even though leisure YOY% likely is steadily improving while business travel is likely decreasing or flat on a YOY%.

As I have shown in the data we will see a boost in travel during March, although college basketball tournaments don't drive any meaningful levels of travel outside of host cities.

While lots of colleges "cancelled" Spring Break (I suspect some college kids will still travel on the weekends during normal Spring Break periods if their school cancelled Spring Break), Spring Break travel is not driven by college students outside of some places like FLL, CUN, e.t.c. for the week or so around St. Patricks day. It is driven largely by families, and lots of school districts still have Spring Break.
 
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2nd2none
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Feb 01, 2021 5:00 pm

TSA numbers from previous week Jan 25 - Jan 31 2021 both days included are at 4.709.351 (35,5%) compared to the same weekdays in 2020 13.276.754.

And and again Sunday was the king of the week at 859.039.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput
 
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75driver
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Feb 03, 2021 5:31 am

The booking trends don't seem to relate to actual TSA counts. I would expect a correlation between the reported booking numbers in this topic vs the actual passenger counts reported by TSA but I'm not seeing it. I've taken a cursory look at previous booking predictions and not seeing the corroboration of TSA counts. The booking trends have been reported for many months, shouldn't we be able to reconcile TSA numbers against the booking numbers? I get the feeling these booking numbers are inaccurate and not supported by the real passenger count reported by TSA.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Feb 03, 2021 3:06 pm

I think its difficult to draw a consistent correlation between booking trends and TSA throughput for a few reasons.
Just my hypothesis here, so bear with me.

1) Much of the advanced bookings (more than 30 days out) are really driven by "inelastic" leisure demand where people are booking ahead when they have very specific holidays / school breaks Its natural that these people are booking as they would on their annual cycle, pre COVID. In late Dec / early Jan, thats when people book sun / beach trips for break periods in March & April. Same thing we saw with the ramp of bookings that were then tied to dates during the 2-week Christmas / New Year holidays

2) Outside of holiday periods, long weekends (MLK, Presidents Day), that inelastic, longer-lead time demand isn't as prevalent, so its more more closer-in bookings, people traveling for personal reasons (e.g., non-leisure), and just overall booked more in the under 2 weeks out timeframe.

3) The limited business travel there is at this point, is almost all booked less than 2 weeks.

4) The booking trends doesn't account for cancelations or rescheduling. I'm curious how much bookings for international sun/beach markets cancelled in the near-term with the COVID test requirement, at least until everyone figures out how to work through it.

5) The basis points they use obfuscate and make it difficult to correlate to actual traveling passengers

6) What percentage of those TSA numbers actually includes airport/airline employees, commuting flight crews, and non-revs?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Feb 03, 2021 4:29 pm

Spring Break

Image

Image

https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/repor ... page/bYtIB


75driver wrote:
The booking trends don't seem to relate to actual TSA counts. I would expect a correlation between the reported booking numbers in this topic vs the actual passenger counts reported by TSA but I'm not seeing it. I've taken a cursory look at previous booking predictions and not seeing the corroboration of TSA counts. The booking trends have been reported for many months, shouldn't we be able to reconcile TSA numbers against the booking numbers? I get the feeling these booking numbers are inaccurate and not supported by the real passenger count reported by TSA.


lol this is like the 5th time you’ve brought this up in this thread (I’m not even exaggerating), go look back at the other times you have said this and read the explanation.

I’m also confused why you keep trying to discredit booking numbers. The whole reason again for this thread is booking numbers, it’s literally a thread about bookings, the numbers that drive airline financials currently. Go and listen to the airline earnings calls they outline the exact same trajectory as outlined in this thread.

The only reason people decided to post TSA numbers here is since the TSA thread was hijacked and subsequently deleted.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Feb 03, 2021 4:43 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
MaxTrimm wrote:
I would prefer if we stayed on the topic of passenger recovery so this thread doesn’t get locked. This is one of my favorite threads and would hate to see it be derailed.

Another slight uptick in passengers week over week, but nothing substantial. Cases are dropping pretty dramatically right now, but it’s definitely too early for the vaccine to be making such a significant case drop. I think an entire lack of traveling the last few weeks is driving them down. I am seeing some say that college basketball tournaments coming up in the next couple months might drive some traffic, but I just don’t see it. I don’t think we eclipse 1m again until mid-to-late March at the soonest, but even Spring Breaks are being largely cancelled nationwide


The 1M target is really irrelevant compared to the YOY number, but it will be at or above 1M for Presidents day weekend.

Also if you are using TSA data, it should also be noted that Jan/Feb are time periods where business travel normally makes up a larger % of overall traffic than any other time of the year. This makes overall YOY % look worse, even though leisure YOY% likely is steadily improving while business travel is likely decreasing or flat on a YOY%.

As I have shown in the data we will see a boost in travel during March, although college basketball tournaments don't drive any meaningful levels of travel outside of host cities.

While lots of colleges "cancelled" Spring Break (I suspect some college kids will still travel on the weekends during normal Spring Break periods if their school cancelled Spring Break), Spring Break travel is not driven by college students outside of some places like FLL, CUN, e.t.c. for the week or so around St. Patricks day. It is driven largely by families, and lots of school districts still have Spring Break.

YOY numbers are going to get pretty squirrely in about a month.
 
tphuang
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Feb 03, 2021 5:41 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Spring Break

Image

Image


Thanks for the numbers. Those are some ugly ones for NYC, DC, SF and Boston. I'd imagine that's a combination of COVID and people not wanting to travel in Jan/Feb. The optimistic side of me would say there is a lot of pentup demand.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Feb 03, 2021 5:55 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
YOY numbers are going to get pretty squirrely in about a month.


That's why the TSA reports 2021 with both 2020 and 2019 for comparison.
 
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janders
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Feb 03, 2021 5:59 pm

Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) predicting it will take till 2025 until global business travel activity returns to pre-pandemic levels.

GBTA’s Business Travel Index Outlook, which studies business travel spending and growth covering 75 countries across 48 industries, sees the sector will take a long time to recover even as vaccines roll out.
Participants cited a global recession, constricted trade, mitigation policies, financial blows to travel suppliers and ongoing traveler safety as challenges over the next few years.

Regionally, the Middle East, and Asia Pacific, will manage to see the most positive growth and regain their peaks before 2025, while the Europe and Americas likely to lag.

https://www.gbta.org/blog/business-trav ... d-by-2025/
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:01 pm

Leisure travel:

Allegiant is the first carrier to really comment on March trends(makes sense given they are 2nd to last in earnings calls), here is what they said today:

-In 2021 capacity will be up every quarter vs 2019
-EPS positive in Q1
-Q1 capacity up 0.5-5.5% vs 2019, January was -16% meaning Feb & March will up significantly vs 2019
-Flight searches are at or have surpassed 2019 levels for Spring Break and into the summer
-January bookings were at 3.5M/day, up from 2.5M/day in Q4 which was up 20% from Q3.
-Plan on hiring pilots in 2021
-Capacity in 2nd half of 2021 will likely be up 20% vs 2019
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:32 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Leisure travel:

Allegiant is the first carrier to really comment on March trends(makes sense given they are 2nd to last in earnings calls), here is what they said today:

-In 2021 capacity will be up every quarter vs 2019
-EPS positive in Q1
-Q1 capacity up 0.5-5.5% vs 2019, January was -16% meaning Feb & March will up significantly vs 2019
-Flight searches are at or have surpassed 2019 levels for Spring Break and into the summer
-January bookings were at 3.5M/day, up from 2.5M/day in Q4 which was up 20% from Q3.
-Plan on hiring pilots in 2021
-Capacity in 2nd half of 2021 will likely be up 20% vs 2019


3,500,000 bookings a day?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:36 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Leisure travel:

Allegiant is the first carrier to really comment on March trends(makes sense given they are 2nd to last in earnings calls), here is what they said today:

-In 2021 capacity will be up every quarter vs 2019
-EPS positive in Q1
-Q1 capacity up 0.5-5.5% vs 2019, January was -16% meaning Feb & March will up significantly vs 2019
-Flight searches are at or have surpassed 2019 levels for Spring Break and into the summer
-January bookings were at 3.5M/day, up from 2.5M/day in Q4 which was up 20% from Q3.
-Plan on hiring pilots in 2021
-Capacity in 2nd half of 2021 will likely be up 20% vs 2019


3,500,000 bookings a day?


3.5M in dollars, not count, doesn’t include vouchers.
 
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2nd2none
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:43 pm

TSA numbers from previous week Feb 1 - Feb 7 2021 both days included are at 4,948,218 (35.1%) compared to the same weekdays in 2020 14,010,875.

Friday was the king of the week at 868,624.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Feb 08, 2021 3:10 pm

The weekend ahead will see a bit of a bump as its a federal / bank holiday for Presidents Day and see similar patterns to MLK weekend.
Traditionally some schools in the Midwest and Northeast have a long weekend for "Mid-winter break". Although this year many have adjusted calendars to make-up for all of the lost instructional time, or are already operating in a virtual environment.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Feb 08, 2021 3:18 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
The weekend ahead will see a bit of a bump as its a federal / bank holiday for Presidents Day and see similar patterns to MLK weekend.
Traditionally some schools in the Midwest and Northeast have a long weekend for "Mid-winter break". Although this year many have adjusted calendars to make-up for all of the lost instructional time, or are already operating in a virtual environment.


This weekend should be pretty solid. NYC still has off next week.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Feb 08, 2021 3:24 pm

The prevailing enthusiasm for these little bumps around holidays is very odd. You can't build an industry around maybe 25 decent days a year - New Year's, Presidents Week, Easter, Independence Day, Labor Day, Thanksgiving, and Christmas - with the other ~340 days at 35% of 2019 averages. It's not feasible if the goals are to sustain 80-100% of employee count at 100% of wages/hours and service to all airports that had it in 2019.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:14 pm

I'm not expressing enthusiasm, but just stating what will be a trend over the next week.
The industry is really on life-support until we get back to sustained demand above 60%.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:47 pm

We all know there will be an uptick for spring break. It doesn't look impressive though the yoy is so high. Most of the boost I would expect LCCs and southwest and b6. The legacies are going to continue to struggle here with all their widebody plane costs and no international travel.

The weeks after an we could see sink into lows. People get there travel fix for spring break then sit at home and no business travel to fill that. I don't think we are seeing any trends or anything positive overall. Things don't look good for the legacies. Delta might want to continue their middle seat blocking. They have the capacity and are getting higher fares from it. People will travel for spring break and pres weekend but then be home. Alot of people are gonna be waiting for summer and hope for more normalcy then. We have seen this pattern . The real story is what the average weeks look like thats where the legacies are burning cash I see between spring break and summer as a possible real struggle. People are gonna wait for summer the people who needed to travel will do it sb
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:08 pm

That is a bit more pessimistic outlook than anything, but Spring Break is really ~6-8 week period that runs from March-April. The weather is still miserable well into early-May for much of the Upper Midwest and Northeast. The spring travel period months of March, April, May are likely going to mirror what we saw last fall in Sept & Oct, if not slightly better since there is more sun/beach traffic in these months than the fall.

DL announced today the are extending seat blocking again, now rolling it forward another month to the end of April.

There is no real line-of-sight on when recovery will actually begin. March-May is certainly going to be better than Jan-Feb "average weeks". There really isn't a big gap between the end of Spring Break travel and the start of summer travel, especially in the sun belt regions.

I have some other hypothesis about what may or may not transpire in the coming months regarding people's propensity to travel, but it probably is a bit non-av for this thread.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:31 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
The weeks after an we could see sink into lows. People get there travel fix for spring break then sit at home and no business travel to fill that. I don't think we are seeing any trends or anything positive overall.


Please enlighten me on what data you are looking at.....
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:41 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
The prevailing enthusiasm for these little bumps around holidays is very odd. You can't build an industry around maybe 25 decent days a year - New Year's, Presidents Week, Easter, Independence Day, Labor Day, Thanksgiving, and Christmas - with the other ~340 days at 35% of 2019 averages. It's not feasible if the goals are to sustain 80-100% of employee count at 100% of wages/hours and service to all airports that had it in 2019.


1. Nearly every airline has either allowed for early retirement or permanently let go of a significant amount of staff.

If your goal is 100% of employee count or wages, you are alone in that, because no one who analyzes the industry should be (or is) expecting that. The legacies have repeated multiple times that they can run 100%+ of 2019 capacity with a much smaller workforce across all departments, so why wouldn’t they do that?

2. The new administration & congress are basically printing money for the airlines right now, they just proposed today an additional ~$14B for airlines. Even if recovery is prolonged they will have a constant stream of government chedder, to backstop any future pandemic induced losses which will increasingly become smaller and smaller.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:30 pm

Midwestindy wrote:


In case anyone needed any further validation of the coming leisure travel bump (at least for March and into April):
G4 growing 110%+ of 2019 for March
NK will be 80%+ of 2019 capacity for March
WN will be 69% of 2019 capacity for March
AA will be 65% of 2019 capacity for March
 
keithvh2001
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Feb 12, 2021 9:58 pm

TSA number for Thursday February 11th was over 1.0MM.

A decent chunk of that is President's Day Holiday driven, of course, but this still marks the first Thursday since March where we have been above 1,000,000.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:52 pm

Testing requirements crushed US-Mexico demand.
Image

https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

Spirit Earnings call

"Besides talking about the back half of March there, we are starting to see some traction starting to occur out in the early parts of summer as well. So just wanted to make sure I clarified that, too, that the booking curve is compressed, for the mass, for the majority of when we take volume. However, we are starting to see traction out in the summer. And in some cases, we are actually starting to see volumes that are above last year's levels for out in the early parts of summer."

Also planning to run ~90% of 2019 March capacity
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-tran ... l-transcr/
 
MaxTrimm
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Feb 14, 2021 2:36 pm

I know we’re still a long way from recovery, and business travel is in the tank for a really long time. But for the first time since February of 2020, I feel like there’s real optimism around the country for passenger growth, particularly at the LCCs.
 
Scarebus34
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:08 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Testing requirements crushed US-Mexico demand.
Image

https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

Spirit Earnings call

"Besides talking about the back half of March there, we are starting to see some traction starting to occur out in the early parts of summer as well. So just wanted to make sure I clarified that, too, that the booking curve is compressed, for the mass, for the majority of when we take volume. However, we are starting to see traction out in the summer. And in some cases, we are actually starting to see volumes that are above last year's levels for out in the early parts of summer."

Also planning to run ~90% of 2019 March capacity
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-tran ... l-transcr/

Mexico will rebound quickly. Resorts are offering testing and most tourist destinations such as CUN and PVR also offer rapid testing at the airport.
 
Brickell305
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Feb 14, 2021 4:04 pm

Scarebus34 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Testing requirements crushed US-Mexico demand.
Image

https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

Spirit Earnings call

"Besides talking about the back half of March there, we are starting to see some traction starting to occur out in the early parts of summer as well. So just wanted to make sure I clarified that, too, that the booking curve is compressed, for the mass, for the majority of when we take volume. However, we are starting to see traction out in the summer. And in some cases, we are actually starting to see volumes that are above last year's levels for out in the early parts of summer."

Also planning to run ~90% of 2019 March capacity
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-tran ... l-transcr/

Mexico will rebound quickly. Resorts are offering testing and most tourist destinations such as CUN and PVR also offer rapid testing at the airport.

It’s not just the availability of testing, it’s also facing the risk of actually contracting COVID while away and being forced to quarantine there for at least 2 weeks.
 
santi319
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:16 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
Scarebus34 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Testing requirements crushed US-Mexico demand.
Image

https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

Spirit Earnings call

"Besides talking about the back half of March there, we are starting to see some traction starting to occur out in the early parts of summer as well. So just wanted to make sure I clarified that, too, that the booking curve is compressed, for the mass, for the majority of when we take volume. However, we are starting to see traction out in the summer. And in some cases, we are actually starting to see volumes that are above last year's levels for out in the early parts of summer."

Also planning to run ~90% of 2019 March capacity
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-tran ... l-transcr/

Mexico will rebound quickly. Resorts are offering testing and most tourist destinations such as CUN and PVR also offer rapid testing at the airport.

It’s not just the availability of testing, it’s also facing the risk of actually contracting COVID while away and being forced to quarantine there for at least 2 weeks.

Theyre on it. A lot of hotels are offering free stay if youtest positive for 7 days or until you test negative.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1461
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:05 am

santi319 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
Scarebus34 wrote:
Mexico will rebound quickly. Resorts are offering testing and most tourist destinations such as CUN and PVR also offer rapid testing at the airport.

It’s not just the availability of testing, it’s also facing the risk of actually contracting COVID while away and being forced to quarantine there for at least 2 weeks.

Theyre on it. A lot of hotels are offering free stay if youtest positive for 7 days or until you test negative.

I’m aware but not everyone can afford to be out of the country for that long. Some have non-remote work, homes to take care of, other responsibilities, etc. Anything that possibly prevents people from getting back to the US will dampen numbers.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5697
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:59 am

santi319 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
Scarebus34 wrote:
Mexico will rebound quickly. Resorts are offering testing and most tourist destinations such as CUN and PVR also offer rapid testing at the airport.

It’s not just the availability of testing, it’s also facing the risk of actually contracting COVID while away and being forced to quarantine there for at least 2 weeks.

Theyre on it. A lot of hotels are offering free stay if youtest positive for 7 days or until you test negative.

They need to let you fly if your vaccinated. The new cdc guidelines say you don’t even have to quarantine if your exposed and vaccinated.
 
santi319
Posts: 1146
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2005 3:24 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Feb 15, 2021 7:59 am

Brickell305 wrote:
santi319 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
It’s not just the availability of testing, it’s also facing the risk of actually contracting COVID while away and being forced to quarantine there for at least 2 weeks.

Theyre on it. A lot of hotels are offering free stay if youtest positive for 7 days or until you test negative.

I’m aware but not everyone can afford to be out of the country for that long. Some have non-remote work, homes to take care of, other responsibilities, etc. Anything that possibly prevents people from getting back to the US will dampen numbers.

Ok but you should not go to a non remote work if you have covid!!
 
ethernal
Posts: 503
Joined: Mon May 06, 2019 12:09 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:50 pm

Scarebus34 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Testing requirements crushed US-Mexico demand.
Image

https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

Spirit Earnings call

"Besides talking about the back half of March there, we are starting to see some traction starting to occur out in the early parts of summer as well. So just wanted to make sure I clarified that, too, that the booking curve is compressed, for the mass, for the majority of when we take volume. However, we are starting to see traction out in the summer. And in some cases, we are actually starting to see volumes that are above last year's levels for out in the early parts of summer."

Also planning to run ~90% of 2019 March capacity
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-tran ... l-transcr/

Mexico will rebound quickly. Resorts are offering testing and most tourist destinations such as CUN and PVR also offer rapid testing at the airport.


Just like folks upthread said that international travel wasn't going to be affected by the inbound testing requirements? Mexico literally got cut in half and that was despite the fact that many were pre-existing bookings. Even when it starts to recover, it will take a long time to get back to the old high. Hotel capacity is probably less affected than flight capacity as the testing requirements will tend to suppress short term trips (weekend trips) more than long term (5-7+) ones.

I know I've personally cancelled at trip to CUN because of the testing requirements. I'm safe compared to most tourists going there (N95 mask, don't eat indoors, stay on the resort only and pretty much just go between the room and the pool/ocean, etc) but it's just not worth dealing with the potential uncertainty created by a positive test (false or actual) when it's meant to be a quick leisure trip.

I don't believe the testing requirements will dramatically shift aggregate flight demand much, but it will impact destinations. Trips to Cancun will be replaced by trips to Miami.
 
Exeiowa
Posts: 399
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:49 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:10 pm

I will be prepared to fly once I get vaccinated and it is shown that the virus has not mutated past them being effective. I was really optimistic if we sat tight then this could start ending the first half of this year, now I am not so sure because we might have squandered our technological advantage we had this time. And although we can reformulate to head of different versions we would be back to square one logistically. I have my fingers crossed, but worry in a rush to get back too soon we have caused prolonged problems.

For a terrible analogy think of the professional athlete rushed back too soon because their team needed them but then just hobbles around for the rest of the season not able to perform as they should, where a couple more weeks might have left them in better shape to close out the season.
 
chrisair
Posts: 2230
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2000 11:32 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:46 pm

32andBelow wrote:
They need to let you fly if your vaccinated. The new cdc guidelines say you don’t even have to quarantine if your exposed and vaccinated.


You're*

I agree with your comment 100% though. However, right now there's no way for anyone to prove they're vaccinated outside of that little paper card you get. Hopefully soon we can get some digital vaccination card that can't be altered/lost/stolen.
 
ethernal
Posts: 503
Joined: Mon May 06, 2019 12:09 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:52 pm

Exeiowa wrote:
I will be prepared to fly once I get vaccinated and it is shown that the virus has not mutated past them being effective. I was really optimistic if we sat tight then this could start ending the first half of this year, now I am not so sure because we might have squandered our technological advantage we had this time. And although we can reformulate to head of different versions we would be back to square one logistically. I have my fingers crossed, but worry in a rush to get back too soon we have caused prolonged problems.

For a terrible analogy think of the professional athlete rushed back too soon because their team needed them but then just hobbles around for the rest of the season not able to perform as they should, where a couple more weeks might have left them in better shape to close out the season.


The mRNA vaccines (Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna) appear to retain most efficacy against the South African variant (which is the variant with the highest concern due to the mutations on the spike protein). JnJ also retains some effectiveness, but it is less effective to begin with and has a lower "margin of safety" because of its delivery mechanism and the fact it is a single shot with a weaker total antibody response relative to the two-dose mRNA vaccines.

The AstraZeneca vaccine appears to be mostly ineffective against the South African variant. I won't get into details here as it is off-topic, but it is believed this is because it does not use a stabilized spike protein like the JnJ and two mRNA vaccines.

At least in the US, we are using the the mRNA and (soon) the JnJ vaccines. So, we should be okay - at least with current known variants. Keeping things restricted (especially domestically) does not make sense to protect against unknown future variants. They will continue to pop up as the less developed economies will probably not be vaccinated until late 2023.

We are not starting at ground zero logistically... the good news is that there is now widespread production capacity for both mRNA and adenovirus-based (JnJ and Oxford) vaccines, so we are not at ground zero logistically.. both vaccine types are relatively new (especially mRNA) and so until COVID there was limited/no mass production capacity available for either. There will likely be an annual booster shot (possibly bundled with flu shot although TBD as they would be different formulations) until the virus is fully contained globally and aggregate mutation risk decreases.
 
User avatar
spinotter
Posts: 897
Joined: Wed May 27, 2015 1:37 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:13 pm

santi319 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
santi319 wrote:
Theyre on it. A lot of hotels are offering free stay if youtest positive for 7 days or until you test negative.

I’m aware but not everyone can afford to be out of the country for that long. Some have non-remote work, homes to take care of, other responsibilities, etc. Anything that possibly prevents people from getting back to the US will dampen numbers.

Ok but you should not go to a non remote work if you have covid!!


In other words, you should not go on vacation if you have non-remote work?
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1461
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:25 pm

santi319 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
santi319 wrote:
Theyre on it. A lot of hotels are offering free stay if youtest positive for 7 days or until you test negative.

I’m aware but not everyone can afford to be out of the country for that long. Some have non-remote work, homes to take care of, other responsibilities, etc. Anything that possibly prevents people from getting back to the US will dampen numbers.

Ok but you should not go to a non remote work if you have covid!!

They might not have contracted it until they got on vacation or alternatively not have realized they had contracted it before being required to test for it.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 6300
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:30 pm

santi319 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
Scarebus34 wrote:
Mexico will rebound quickly. Resorts are offering testing and most tourist destinations such as CUN and PVR also offer rapid testing at the airport.

It’s not just the availability of testing, it’s also facing the risk of actually contracting COVID while away and being forced to quarantine there for at least 2 weeks.

Theyre on it. A lot of hotels are offering free stay if youtest positive for 7 days or until you test negative.


I certainly wouldn't travel to the Mexico & Caribbean right now with the requirements in place.

Even if I were to stay at a hotel where you could stay for 7 days free if you test positive, you wouldn't be able to leave your room for a week.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1461
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:52 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
santi319 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
It’s not just the availability of testing, it’s also facing the risk of actually contracting COVID while away and being forced to quarantine there for at least 2 weeks.

Theyre on it. A lot of hotels are offering free stay if youtest positive for 7 days or until you test negative.


I certainly wouldn't travel to the Mexico & Caribbean right now with the requirements in place.

Even if I were to stay at a hotel where you could stay for 7 days free if you test positive, you wouldn't be able to leave your room for a week.

Exactly. Even a free quarantine is a very unpleasant experience. A lot of people simply won’t risk it.

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