Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
santi319
Posts: 1138
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2005 3:24 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Feb 15, 2021 8:09 pm

The splitting of hairs above has left this thread bold.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1951
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Feb 15, 2021 8:13 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
santi319 wrote:
Theyre on it. A lot of hotels are offering free stay if youtest positive for 7 days or until you test negative.


I certainly wouldn't travel to the Mexico & Caribbean right now with the requirements in place.

Even if I were to stay at a hotel where you could stay for 7 days free if you test positive, you wouldn't be able to leave your room for a week.

Exactly. Even a free quarantine is a very unpleasant experience. A lot of people simply won’t risk it.


You do know regardless of where you get the virus you have it quarantine correct?
 
tphuang
Posts: 6616
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:26 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
You do know regardless of where you get the virus you have it quarantine correct?


Let's say you work in a profession where you get vaccinated early and can't work from home like medical worker or first responder or something like that. If you travel and catch COVID, you are most likely asymptomatic if you do catch it. You would not have to quarantine if you travel domestically. But if you travel internationally, you would. As more and more people get vaccinated, they are going to want to avoid destinations that will require dealing with PCR tests or quarantine. PCR tests are not pleasant.
 
ethernal
Posts: 482
Joined: Mon May 06, 2019 12:09 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:31 pm

tphuang wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
You do know regardless of where you get the virus you have it quarantine correct?


Let's say you work in a profession where you get vaccinated early and can't work from home like medical worker or first responder or something like that. If you travel and catch COVID, you are most likely asymptomatic if you do catch it. You would not have to quarantine if you travel domestically. But if you travel internationally, you would. As more and more people get vaccinated, they are going to want to avoid destinations that will require dealing with PCR tests or quarantine. PCR tests are not pleasant.


Asymptomatic does not mean that you don't spread it. Over half of spread is believed to occur from asymptomatic carriers. You're right that if you are asymptomatic you will travel in ignorance and potentially spread it, but that doesn't mean that's a good thing. If anything you're articulating the typical justification for requiring testing to travel domestically as well.

There is not sufficient evidence of this yet, but since you mention vaccinations - it is very likely that if you are a typical fully vaccinated individual that gets exposed, your viral load will never get high enough to measure on an antigen or PCR test anyways. If you test positive on a PCR test, you should assume you're contagious unless you tested positive >10-14 days prior (in which case it is likely residual/dead virus).

All that said - I would much prefer to be quarantined at home than in a tiny hotel room. So there is a difference there. This is in addition to the issue that you are more likely to actually catch it while traveling. While perhaps not as much on the plane while it is in the air, you're surrounded by people in poorly ventilated throughout much of the transit experience (security, customs/immigration, boarding area, jetbridge, ...). This also ignores potentially reckless behaviors at destinations (e.g., indoor dining) that may be more likely to occur on vacation than at home.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1447
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:22 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

I certainly wouldn't travel to the Mexico & Caribbean right now with the requirements in place.

Even if I were to stay at a hotel where you could stay for 7 days free if you test positive, you wouldn't be able to leave your room for a week.

Exactly. Even a free quarantine is a very unpleasant experience. A lot of people simply won’t risk it.


You do know regardless of where you get the virus you have it quarantine correct?

You do realize that:

a) a quarantine at home is preferable for most people as it affords you the ability to at the very least tend to your home, especially if you live alone. There’s also the added comfort of being in a familiar place.

b) some people may not even realize they have the disease unless they are required to take a test so if they never traveled in the first place and were therefore never required to take a test, they would never have been aware.

c) some people may catch it while on vacation and therefore would never have had it had they not traveled.

d) if worse comes to worse, most people would prefers to receive healthcare in their home country than in a foreign one, especially if they’re visiting a developing country.

It’s fairly obvious why many people wouldn’t want to risk having to quarantine in a foreign country. I’m not sure how that’s up for debate. The booking numbers bear that out too.
 
jayunited
Posts: 3580
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Feb 16, 2021 2:14 am

ethernal wrote:
Just like folks upthread said that international travel wasn't going to be affected by the inbound testing requirements? Mexico literally got cut in half and that was despite the fact that many were pre-existing bookings. Even when it starts to recover, it will take a long time to get back to the old high. Hotel capacity is probably less affected than flight capacity as the testing requirements will tend to suppress short term trips (weekend trips) more than long term (5-7+) ones.

I know I've personally cancelled at trip to CUN because of the testing requirements. I'm safe compared to most tourists going there (N95 mask, don't eat indoors, stay on the resort only and pretty much just go between the room and the pool/ocean, etc) but it's just not worth dealing with the potential uncertainty created by a positive test (false or actual) when it's meant to be a quick leisure trip.

I don't believe the testing requirements will dramatically shift aggregate flight demand much, but it will impact destinations. Trips to Cancun will be replaced by trips to Miami.


In my opinion you are exactly correct.

My husband and I went to Cabo San Lucas this past November had a blast, we were planning on going to Aruba at the end of February and although Aruba has multiple locations offering COVID testing including in some resorts and hotels we've decided its simply not worth it at this point in time to travel internationally because you never know and not being able to come home is deal breaker for us. No disrespect to any other countries health system but since no one knows how their body will respond if they become infected with coronavirus meaning will you simply have mild symptoms or severe reaction it is better to just vacation within the US for now. We are both healthy individuals but even healthy individuals have ended up in the hospital. The last thing I would ever want is to be in a hospital in a foreign country.

Over hear at United we are seeing customers shift away from Mexico and Caribbean islands that are open in favor of Florida and now Hawaii. Here in the Chicagoland region there are now several Walgreens and CVS locations that are offering guaranteed 24 - 48 hour PCR COVID test results which is great for for people going to Hawaii. I think the big winners for spring break 2021 will be Florida and Hawaii. Looking at some select future March booking to Hawaii on United especially on weekends there are a quite a few days where UA's has less than 100 seats available on our HD 77A's to both HNL and OGG out of SFO. If we exclude this past Christmas holiday season, the last time UA saw some of the future booking numbers we are now seeing to Hawaii, happened before Hawaii closed down in March or April of 2020.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 6217
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Feb 16, 2021 2:45 pm

WN raising guidance:

Load factor could be up to 70% for March, with ASMs at 70% of 2019.

"The Company will soon be adjusting its published flight schedule in April 2021, and currently expects April 2021 capacity to increase approximately 81 percent, year-over-year, and decrease approximately 25 percent compared with April 2019."

"The Company's average core cash burn was approximately $15 million per day in January 2021. The Company now estimates its average core cash burn to be approximately $15 million per day in first quarter 2021, compared with its previous guidance of approximately $17 million per day, primarily due to improving operating revenue trends in first quarter 2021. Including certain changes in working capital, the Company continues to expect average core cash burn in first quarter 2021 to be in the range of $10 million to $15 million per day"


http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/sout ... F&hasPdf=1
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
User avatar
2nd2none
Posts: 136
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:05 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Feb 16, 2021 4:49 pm

TSA numbers from previous week Feb 8 - Feb 15 2021 both days included are at 6,250,499 (40.2 %) compared to the same weekdays in 2020 15,553,988.

Friday was the king of the week at 1,151,420.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 6217
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Feb 17, 2021 5:07 pm

A few points I found interesting:

March sun destinations should be interesting, this is booked occupancy for STRs, these booked occupancy levels were from 2 weeks ago. Also marked the busiest month for STR bookings, up 22% from the next highest month:
Image
https://www.airdna.co/blog/airdna-marke ... nuary-2021

Looks like travel to the islands benefited from the int'l restrictions
Image
https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

Search interest is also rapidly increasing to sun destinations:
Image
https://www.kayak.com/flight-trends
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 9859
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Feb 19, 2021 12:38 pm

New York Times article title today: Airlines Still Don’t Know When Passengers Will Return

http://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/busin ... cines.html

I'll point out that operating 80% of capacity doesn't mean at 100% of 2019 load factor and 100% of 2019 avg fare levels to yield 80% of passenger revenues.

Before the pandemic, business travel accounted for about 30 percent of trips but 40 to 50 percent of passenger revenue, according to Airlines for America, an industry association. And those customers aren’t expected to return in great numbers any time soon.

...

In the final three months of 2020, corporate travel was down 85 percent or more at American, Delta and Southwest, according to the airlines.

It's tough to find much hope in this citation:

About 40 percent of Delta’s big corporate customers expect their own business travel to be fully recovered by 2022, and an additional 11 percent by 2023, Mr. Bastian said on a conference call in January, citing the airline’s internal research. Only 7 percent said business travel might never be fully restored, while the rest said they were unsure when things would return to normal.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 6217
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Feb 20, 2021 3:22 pm

The recent winter storms were likely a blessing in disguise for the airlines, while operationally it was terrible, it got people thinking about vacationing to warmer areas(Ted Cruz).

This was a holiday week which causes bookings to be muted, I think we should see a step up in overall bookings during the next few weeks.

Image
Image
https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/repor ... page/bYtIB

MIflyer12 wrote:
New York Times article title today: Airlines Still Don’t Know When Passengers Will Return

http://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/busin ... cines.html

I'll point out that operating 80% of capacity doesn't mean at 100% of 2019 load factor and 100% of 2019 avg fare levels to yield 80% of passenger revenues.

Before the pandemic, business travel accounted for about 30 percent of trips but 40 to 50 percent of passenger revenue, according to Airlines for America, an industry association. And those customers aren’t expected to return in great numbers any time soon.

...

In the final three months of 2020, corporate travel was down 85 percent or more at American, Delta and Southwest, according to the airlines.

It's tough to find much hope in this citation:

About 40 percent of Delta’s big corporate customers expect their own business travel to be fully recovered by 2022, and an additional 11 percent by 2023, Mr. Bastian said on a conference call in January, citing the airline’s internal research. Only 7 percent said business travel might never be fully restored, while the rest said they were unsure when things would return to normal.


The article doesn't seem to provide any new info unfortunately, I posted this over a month ago in this thread:

Midwestindy wrote:
DL Ed Bastian on a potential loss of 15-20% of corporate travel:

"I don’t think we should be worried or ringing alarm bells in terms of the future of corporate travel. I think corporate travel is ready to come back."

Recent survey showed 40% of their corporate customers expect to be fully back to 2019 levels in 2022, and only 7% expect to never return to 2019 levels. Also acknowledged the company is smaller now
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
User avatar
STT757
Posts: 14497
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Feb 20, 2021 3:29 pm

It’s starting to be more widely reported that the Covid-19 pandemic may effectively be over by April.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-pandemic-could-be-effectively-over-by-april-j-p-morgan-says-heres-why-51613163599

If this is the case, there is a huge pent up demand that would be unleashed.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
williaminsd
Posts: 399
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Feb 20, 2021 3:39 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
New York Times article title today: Airlines Still Don’t Know When Passengers Will Return

http://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/busin ... cines.html

I'll point out that operating 80% of capacity doesn't mean at 100% of 2019 load factor and 100% of 2019 avg fare levels to yield 80% of passenger revenues.

Before the pandemic, business travel accounted for about 30 percent of trips but 40 to 50 percent of passenger revenue, according to Airlines for America, an industry association. And those customers aren’t expected to return in great numbers any time soon.

...

In the final three months of 2020, corporate travel was down 85 percent or more at American, Delta and Southwest, according to the airlines.

It's tough to find much hope in this citation:

About 40 percent of Delta’s big corporate customers expect their own business travel to be fully recovered by 2022, and an additional 11 percent by 2023, Mr. Bastian said on a conference call in January, citing the airline’s internal research. Only 7 percent said business travel might never be fully restored, while the rest said they were unsure when things would return to normal.


The article doesn't seem to provide any new info unfortunately, I posted this over a month ago in this thread:

Midwestindy wrote:
DL Ed Bastian on a potential loss of 15-20% of corporate travel:

"I don’t think we should be worried or ringing alarm bells in terms of the future of corporate travel. I think corporate travel is ready to come back."

Recent survey showed 40% of their corporate customers expect to be fully back to 2019 levels in 2022, and only 7% expect to never return to 2019 levels. Also acknowledged the company is smaller now


Yeah that was my take-away as well. There's nothing really new here at all. Conditions are changing rapidly. What was true in Q42020 might as well be a decade ago...
In the land of lies, telling the truth is a crime...
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 9859
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Feb 20, 2021 3:51 pm

De Nile is not just a river in Egypt. TSA passenger numbers are routinely posting below 40%. Midwestindy has been posting happy talk on bookings since July, and, apart from some holiday bumps, has failed to point to a return in revenue. When 49% of the corporate survey respondents say 'Never' or 'Don't know,' don't go banking on a return of corporate travel.

'Conditions are changing rapidly,' without pointing to objective data, is just a throw-away.
 
williaminsd
Posts: 399
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:03 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
De Nile is not just a river in Egypt. TSA passenger numbers are routinely posting below 40%. Midwestindy has been posting happy talk on bookings since July, and, apart from some holiday bumps, has failed to point to a return in revenue. When 49% of the corporate survey respondents say 'Never' or 'Don't know,' don't go banking on a return of corporate travel.

'Conditions are changing rapidly,' without pointing to objective data, is just a throw-away.


Jeez don't get upset. It wasn't personal...

There's nothing new in the Times article and no one is "banking" on a return of corporate travel anytime soon.

Try decaf...
In the land of lies, telling the truth is a crime...
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1447
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Feb 20, 2021 5:07 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
De Nile is not just a river in Egypt. TSA passenger numbers are routinely posting below 40%. Midwestindy has been posting happy talk on bookings since July, and, apart from some holiday bumps, has failed to point to a return in revenue. When 49% of the corporate survey respondents say 'Never' or 'Don't know,' don't go banking on a return of corporate travel.

'Conditions are changing rapidly,' without pointing to objective data, is just a throw-away.

Agreed. There’s been a lot of IMO undue optimism in this thread for months. The numbers have not been great. I too hope for a recovery for the sake of the airlines and their staff but there seems to be a lot of cherry picking to paint a rosy picture when the raw data suggests the situation is anything but.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 6217
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Feb 20, 2021 6:00 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
De Nile is not just a river in Egypt. TSA passenger numbers are routinely posting below 40%. Midwestindy has been posting happy talk on bookings since July, and, apart from some holiday bumps, has failed to point to a return in revenue. When 49% of the corporate survey respondents say 'Never' or 'Don't know,' don't go banking on a return of corporate travel.

'Conditions are changing rapidly,' without pointing to objective data, is just a throw-away.

Agreed. There’s been a lot of IMO undue optimism in this thread for months. The numbers have not been great. I too hope for a recovery for the sake of the airlines and their staff but there seems to be a lot of cherry picking to paint a rosy picture when the raw data suggests the situation is anything but.


There is reason for optimism, vaccinations levels are exceeding goals, every US carrier is reporting higher levels of bookings, every US carrier is adding back capacity, & the low-cost airlines are now planning to match or exceed 2019 capacity this year.

Image
https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

I'm not sure why that wouldn't warrant optimism given where we have been over the past year.....

williaminsd wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
De Nile is not just a river in Egypt. TSA passenger numbers are routinely posting below 40%. Midwestindy has been posting happy talk on bookings since July, and, apart from some holiday bumps, has failed to point to a return in revenue. When 49% of the corporate survey respondents say 'Never' or 'Don't know,' don't go banking on a return of corporate travel.

'Conditions are changing rapidly,' without pointing to objective data, is just a throw-away.


Jeez don't get upset. It wasn't personal...

There's nothing new in the Times article and no one is "banking" on a return of corporate travel anytime soon.

Try decaf...


Yeah I agree, if a post is really that aggravating just ignore it
Last edited by Midwestindy on Sat Feb 20, 2021 6:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
maverick4002
Posts: 450
Joined: Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:14 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Feb 20, 2021 6:02 pm

STT757 wrote:
It’s starting to be more widely reported that the Covid-19 pandemic may effectively be over by April.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-pandemic-could-be-effectively-over-by-april-j-p-morgan-says-heres-why-51613163599

If this is the case, there is a huge pent up demand that would be unleashed.


Wishful thinking. While it may over globally, it sure as hell wont be over here in the US. I will be surprised if that happens. The blatant disregard for mask implementation and the already botched roll out of vaccines here is testament to that. Will other countries even want Americans to come visit?

But I agree on pent up demand. I am ready to book book book and I very well might go on a trip in the next two weeks,
 
santi319
Posts: 1138
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2005 3:24 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Feb 20, 2021 6:42 pm

maverick4002 wrote:
STT757 wrote:
It’s starting to be more widely reported that the Covid-19 pandemic may effectively be over by April.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-pandemic-could-be-effectively-over-by-april-j-p-morgan-says-heres-why-51613163599

If this is the case, there is a huge pent up demand that would be unleashed.


Wishful thinking. While it may over globally, it sure as hell wont be over here in the US. I will be surprised if that happens. The blatant disregard for mask implementation and the already botched roll out of vaccines here is testament to that. Will other countries even want Americans to come visit?

But I agree on pent up demand. I am ready to book book book and I very well might go on a trip in the next two weeks,


Its a US oriented post.... its a good read and when the Wall St Journal and JP Morgan are saying it will be over by April, I would believe it. They ultimately have control of most of the reactions in regards to finance.

I know some people may be skeptic, after what we have been through, but scientific data points to the beginning of the end. Read, investigate the scientists being interviewed and what they have said in the past. Its not that hard they all have twitters and data in google.
 
Skywatcher
Posts: 963
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2002 11:19 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Feb 20, 2021 8:10 pm

I review a lot of the available data concerning covid infection trends daily. I for one am convinced that things are way better now than a couple of months ago and the trends are improving quite quickly. If the new variants don't blow up I think that during April things will start feeling remotely "normal" again. Forward flight bookings for the summer should start booming by then. I will be one of them.
 
maverick4002
Posts: 450
Joined: Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:14 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Feb 20, 2021 8:56 pm

santi319 wrote:
maverick4002 wrote:
STT757 wrote:
It’s starting to be more widely reported that the Covid-19 pandemic may effectively be over by April.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-pandemic-could-be-effectively-over-by-april-j-p-morgan-says-heres-why-51613163599

If this is the case, there is a huge pent up demand that would be unleashed.


Wishful thinking. While it may over globally, it sure as hell wont be over here in the US. I will be surprised if that happens. The blatant disregard for mask implementation and the already botched roll out of vaccines here is testament to that. Will other countries even want Americans to come visit?

But I agree on pent up demand. I am ready to book book book and I very well might go on a trip in the next two weeks,


Its a US oriented post.... its a good read and when the Wall St Journal and JP Morgan are saying it will be over by April, I would believe it. They ultimately have control of most of the reactions in regards to finance.

I know some people may be skeptic, after what we have been through, but scientific data points to the beginning of the end. Read, investigate the scientists being interviewed and what they have said in the past. Its not that hard they all have twitters and data in google.


The Wall Street Journal and Barrons are in no way any preeminent entities on a pandemic so I find it odd you say if they say it you believe it. Those are finance companies, all they care about his money. They may be right but I am not believing anything they say in this regard. Let the scientists speak
 
MohawkWeekend
Posts: 840
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Feb 20, 2021 9:09 pm

I too agree that passenger counts will rapidly recover. Looking to the future and the battle I believe will occur between the arguably stronger and growing ULCC's (and Breeze) and the Majors. The return of traffic will mean the end of Government payroll support. The Majors are going into this fight with much higher debt and much higher wages. Higher fuel prices aren't going to help anyone.
    300 319 320 321 707 717 720 727 72S 737 73S 734 735 73G 738 739 747 757 762 ARJ B11 C212 CRJ CR2 CR7 CR9 CV5 D8S DC9 D9S D94 D95 D10 DH8 DTO EMB EM2 E135 E145 E190 FH7 F28 F100 FTRIMTR HRN L10 L15 M80 M90 SF3 SWM YS11
     
    NolaMD88fan
    Posts: 1666
    Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2014 4:07 am

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Sun Feb 21, 2021 6:06 am

    We're already at 61 million people or nearly 20% of the population vaccinated in this country with half of those vaccinations occurring in the last three weeks.

    The pace of daily vaccinations in February has been around 1.5 million/day, so the US will likely see somewhere around 45 million vaccinated in February alone. Expand that pace out through the end of April, and we'll be between 55 and 60% of the population vaccinated. By June, we'll effectively be at herd immunity status. Travel demand in the leisure and VFR brackets is going to skyrocket this Summer. Pure business travel will take longer to recover, but I do see trade shows/convention, site inspection, and training traffic starting up again in earnest by the Fall.
     
    User avatar
    STT757
    Posts: 14497
    Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Sun Feb 21, 2021 3:00 pm

    More good news, Pfizer Bio-tech Covid vaccine proves to be 85% effective 15 days after first dose. Also it can be kept in less strenuous conditions in terms of refrigeration.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/single-dose-of-pfizer-vaccine-is-85-effective-israeli-study-shows-11613723218
    Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
     
    User avatar
    Midwestindy
    Topic Author
    Posts: 6217
    Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Sun Feb 21, 2021 3:21 pm

    TSA is hiring 6,000 screening officers in anticipation of summer of this year, but I guess they are overly optimistic too ;)

    https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/releases ... g-officers

    Summer TSA lines I expect to be quite terrible, as a bunch non-experienced travelers get on a plane for the first time in a year+.

    I would advise getting TSA precheck if you don't have it already.
    ORD & IND

    AA & DL
     
    williaminsd
    Posts: 399
    Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Sun Feb 21, 2021 3:22 pm

    STT757 wrote:
    More good news, Pfizer Bio-tech Covid vaccine proves to be 85% effective 15 days after first dose. Also it can be kept in less strenuous conditions in terms of refrigeration.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/single-dose-of-pfizer-vaccine-is-85-effective-israeli-study-shows-11613723218


    That's just "happy talk" and in no way represents a "changing condition" since Q42020...
    In the land of lies, telling the truth is a crime...
     
    frmrCapCadet
    Posts: 4971
    Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Sun Feb 21, 2021 3:42 pm

    The severity, and especially hospitalization and death rates are very likely to fall significantly by the end of April. To use the Winston Churchill time line, it will be the beginning of the end. For wife and I it means after the end of the first week of March we will celebrate by eating inside an uncrowded restaurant (first in a year and a few days), going on a road trip (fast food or motels with kitchens), and willing to fly mid April. By mid-March it will to possible to assess some of the more worrisome variants of the disease and what degree of protection they offer. So long as very good protection against hospitalization we will proceed.
    Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
     
    majano
    Posts: 344
    Joined: Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:45 am

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Sun Feb 21, 2021 4:03 pm

    maverick4002 wrote:
    santi319 wrote:
    maverick4002 wrote:

    Wishful thinking. While it may over globally, it sure as hell wont be over here in the US. I will be surprised if that happens. The blatant disregard for mask implementation and the already botched roll out of vaccines here is testament to that. Will other countries even want Americans to come visit?

    But I agree on pent up demand. I am ready to book book book and I very well might go on a trip in the next two weeks,


    Its a US oriented post.... its a good read and when the Wall St Journal and JP Morgan are saying it will be over by April, I would believe it. They ultimately have control of most of the reactions in regards to finance.

    I know some people may be skeptic, after what we have been through, but scientific data points to the beginning of the end. Read, investigate the scientists being interviewed and what they have said in the past. Its not that hard they all have twitters and data in google.


    The Wall Street Journal and Barrons are in no way any preeminent entities on a pandemic so I find it odd you say if they say it you believe it. Those are finance companies, all they care about his money. They may be right but I am not believing anything they say in this regard. Let the scientists speak

    I think the USA is managing vaccines better than 95% of countries in the world. Many people wish they could have as much vaccine access as the average American. Travel restrictions for Americans are very limited (a few countries in Europe perhaps) but they will be lifted very quickly if the rate of vaccination is maintained. IMHO.
     
    chrisair
    Posts: 2230
    Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2000 11:32 pm

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Sun Feb 21, 2021 6:15 pm

    maverick4002 wrote:
    Wishful thinking. While it may over globally, it sure as hell wont be over here in the US.


    This is nowhere near being “over globally.” Aside from the most of the “westernized world” vaccines haven’t been widely administered. Heck, Australia is scheduled to start giving jabs this week. Yes, I know, their case load is nonexistent but to my point until the majority of the world is vaccinated, this ain’t over.

    Just got my second jab and I’ve got a load of travel planned once my 14 days are up. As Southwest said 10 years ago, grab your bag, it’s on!
     
    Silver1SWA
    Posts: 4770
    Joined: Wed Mar 10, 2004 6:11 pm

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Sun Feb 21, 2021 11:26 pm

    3 weeks ago I believed I wouldn’t have an opportunity to get vaccinated until sometime over the summer. Yesterday I received shot #2. Many of my friends have at least the first dose after thinking they were still months away from being eligible. So things are moving along an at accelerating pace which has me feeling like we will be back to normal(ish) sooner than the most optimistic projections in the US.
    ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
     
    NolaMD88fan
    Posts: 1666
    Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2014 4:07 am

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Mon Feb 22, 2021 4:30 am

    Silver1SWA wrote:
    3 weeks ago I believed I wouldn’t have an opportunity to get vaccinated until sometime over the summer. Yesterday I received shot #2. Many of my friends have at least the first dose after thinking they were still months away from being eligible. So things are moving along an at accelerating pace which has me feeling like we will be back to normal(ish) sooner than the most optimistic projections in the US.


    Same boat here. My profession became eligible 2 weeks ago. In that time, over 60% of the workers in my office have received the first shot. The rest (other than 2 people) are scheduled and should be done with the first round of doses this week. The uptake on the vaccine will be over 90% in the office by the time we're done. Really encouraging. Everyone is already starting to put in leave requests for the Summer. As more people get vaccinated, the booking demand will increase exponentially.
     
    sldispatcher
    Posts: 595
    Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2007 3:55 am

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Mon Feb 22, 2021 6:08 am

    Having worked on the frontlines in ursing homes for almost 12 months of Covid and then going through vaccine trials and now widespread vaccine campaigns, the amount of covid hysteria on here is amazing. It is SIGNIFICANTLY better in last 4 weeks. I have zero trouble recommending air travel or dining out to anyone vaccinated and anyone under age 50 period.
    Make those plans. Buy those tickets. Get back in the sky.
     
    williaminsd
    Posts: 399
    Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Mon Feb 22, 2021 12:24 pm

    My profession became eligible 2 weeks ago. In that time, over 60% of the workers in my office have received the first shot.


    3 weeks ago I believed I wouldn’t have an opportunity to get vaccinated until sometime over the summer. Yesterday I received shot #2. Many of my friends have at least the first dose after thinking they were still months away from being eligible.


    Just got my second jab and I’ve got a load of travel planned once my 14 days are up.


    Almost as though conditions are rapidly changing...
    In the land of lies, telling the truth is a crime...
     
    User avatar
    2nd2none
    Posts: 136
    Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:05 am

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Mon Feb 22, 2021 12:44 pm

    TSA numbers from previous week Feb 15 - Feb 21 2021 both days included are at 6,511,932 (40.9 %) compared to the same weekdays in 2020 15,934,978.

    Sunday was again the king of the week at 1,115,479.

    https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput
     
    User avatar
    Midwestindy
    Topic Author
    Posts: 6217
    Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Mon Feb 22, 2021 5:02 pm

    Midwestindy wrote:
    Search interest is also rapidly increasing to sun destinations:
    Image
    https://www.kayak.com/flight-trends


    Airline stocks up big today (AAL +10%), more Wall Street analysts are turning bullish:
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/airlin ... 1614011842

    Massive gains in searches continuing
    Image
    https://www.kayak.com/flight-trends
    ORD & IND

    AA & DL
     
    User avatar
    Midwestindy
    Topic Author
    Posts: 6217
    Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Tue Feb 23, 2021 3:19 pm

    Midwestindy wrote:
    This was a holiday week which causes bookings to be muted, I think we should see a step up in overall bookings during the next few weeks.

    Image
    Image
    https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/repor ... page/bYtIB


    Definitely heating up, and booking curve is extending

    Image
    Image

    https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/repor ... page/T4qIB
    ORD & IND

    AA & DL
     
    User avatar
    Midwestindy
    Topic Author
    Posts: 6217
    Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Wed Feb 24, 2021 2:59 pm

    Midwestindy wrote:
    Midwestindy wrote:
    This was a holiday week which causes bookings to be muted, I think we should see a step up in overall bookings during the next few weeks.

    Image
    Image
    https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/repor ... page/bYtIB


    Definitely heating up, and booking curve is extending

    Image
    Image

    https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/repor ... page/T4qIB


    Update from AS this morning:
    -Ending Cash Burn guidance
    -Expecting close to break even Q1 cash flows from ops (including CARES Act)
    -Q1 Pax & LF 5%-10% better than exceptions at end of Jan
    https://investor.alaskaair.com/static-f ... 56b9fdc5ed

    Best booking day of the pandemic yesterday:
    Image
    Image
    https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/repor ... page/bYtIB
    ORD & IND

    AA & DL
     
    ethernal
    Posts: 482
    Joined: Mon May 06, 2019 12:09 pm

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Mon Mar 01, 2021 12:31 am

    Regarding the new inbound testing requirements - I'm reiterating my position that this is going to suppress demand as long as it is in place. I just took my first international trip since the testing requirements were put in place. I will not be doing another trip so long as the testing requirements are in place. It's just too much of a pain to orchestrate everything for a short trip. I've already cancelled a late March trip as I don't see the requirements changing before then.

    The added travel stressors:
    * I had to make a reservation with the hotel, and I couldn't do it in advance which meant I had to do it in person. It was a 15 minute wait to get the appointment scheduled, and it ended up being at a very inconvenient time. I was staying at a relatively high end 5-star resort so my guess is that lower end hotels aren't offering a materially superior experience here.
    * The test was a nasal swab; the hotel had been very ambiguous about the type of test when I inquired about it which makes sense. Most people don't want a nasal swab. It doesn't bother me, but it does bother my partner. Not sure if they are doing nasal swabs because they are cheaper or more accurate (as opposed to a saliva antigen test).
    * Paper insanity. I had test results, I had my attestation form, I had my immigration form, and I had my COVID questionnaire - and then after waiting in the security line for 30 minutes I was told I needed to go back to the check-in counter to get a paper boarding pass (despite having an electronic one) because Delta does the doc check at check-in and not the gate.

    The whole thing was just added stress to the trip. This was on top of the existing questionnaires and forms that have to be filled out upon arrival (e-questionnaire) and at the hotel. The only way I'd consider dealing with it again is if it was part of a long trip (week+) and not a long weekend trip.

    I expect international Caribbean itineraries will continue to see significant suppression even when we start to see a strong resurgence in domestic leisure destination traffic until this order is changed (perhaps allowing a vaccine exclusion)
     
    32andBelow
    Posts: 5641
    Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Mon Mar 01, 2021 12:38 am

    ethernal wrote:
    Regarding the new inbound testing requirements - I'm reiterating my position that this is going to suppress demand as long as it is in place. I just took my first international trip since the testing requirements were put in place. I will not be doing another trip so long as the testing requirements are in place. It's just too much of a pain to orchestrate everything for a short trip. I've already cancelled a late March trip as I don't see the requirements changing before then.

    The added travel stressors:
    * I had to make a reservation with the hotel, and I couldn't do it in advance which meant I had to do it in person. It was a 15 minute wait to get the appointment scheduled, and it ended up being at a very inconvenient time. I was staying at a relatively high end 5-star resort so my guess is that lower end hotels aren't offering a materially superior experience here.
    * The test was a nasal swab; the hotel had been very ambiguous about the type of test when I inquired about it which makes sense. Most people don't want a nasal swab. It doesn't bother me, but it does bother my partner. Not sure if they are doing nasal swabs because they are cheaper or more accurate (as opposed to a saliva antigen test).
    * Paper insanity. I had test results, I had my attestation form, I had my immigration form, and I had my COVID questionnaire - and then after waiting in the security line for 30 minutes I was told I needed to go back to the check-in counter to get a paper boarding pass (despite having an electronic one) because Delta does the doc check at check-in and not the gate.

    The whole thing was just added stress to the trip. This was on top of the existing questionnaires and forms that have to be filled out upon arrival (e-questionnaire) and at the hotel. The only way I'd consider dealing with it again is if it was part of a long trip (week+) and not a long weekend trip.

    I expect international Caribbean itineraries will continue to see significant suppression even when we start to see a strong resurgence in domestic leisure destination traffic until this order is changed (perhaps allowing a vaccine exclusion)

    Maybe it’s a summer to rediscover America! I expect a lot of travel to Alaska this summer via air.
     
    User avatar
    2nd2none
    Posts: 136
    Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:05 am

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Mon Mar 01, 2021 1:02 pm

    TSA numbers from previous week Feb 22 - Feb 28 2021 both days included are at 6,735,696 (43.8 %) compared to the same weekdays in 2020 15,371,955.

    Friday became the king of the week at 1,096,348.

    https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

    But from now on the numbers gets questionable.
     
    User avatar
    Midwestindy
    Topic Author
    Posts: 6217
    Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Mon Mar 01, 2021 1:17 pm

    2nd2none wrote:
    TSA numbers from previous week Feb 22 - Feb 28 2021 both days included are at 6,735,696 (43.8 %) compared to the same weekdays in 2020 15,371,955.

    Friday became the king of the week at 1,096,348.

    https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

    But from now on the numbers gets questionable.


    You mean Sunday, which was 1,190,682 or 50.6% of LY
    ORD & IND

    AA & DL
     
    User avatar
    2nd2none
    Posts: 136
    Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:05 am

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Mon Mar 01, 2021 1:19 pm

    Midwestindy wrote:
    2nd2none wrote:
    TSA numbers from previous week Feb 22 - Feb 28 2021 both days included are at 6,735,696 (43.8 %) compared to the same weekdays in 2020 15,371,955.

    Friday became the king of the week at 1,096,348.

    https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

    But from now on the numbers gets questionable.


    You mean Sunday, which was 1,190,682 or 50.6% of LY


    Yes sorry it was Sunday!
     
    User avatar
    SumChristianus
    Posts: 699
    Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:00 am

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Mon Mar 01, 2021 2:26 pm

    2nd2none wrote:
    TSA numbers from previous week Feb 22 - Feb 28 2021 both days included are at 6,735,696 (43.8 %) compared to the same weekdays in 2020 15,371,955.

    Friday became the king of the week at 1,096,348.

    https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

    But from now on the numbers gets questionable.


    I'm trying to figure out what to do for my spreadsheet (shared earlier on this site): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

    Perhaps leave the comparison of March 2020-February 2021 onto March 2019-February 2020 and then from today onwards compare days back to 2019 to get a comparison back to a "normal" year? As well as a separate 2021 over 2020 comp to get the recovery trend over last years March plummet.
    (Numbers last year really started plummeting about a week into March)
    UA DL LH NW AA WN
    "Truth, and the love which it reveals, cannot be produced: they can only be received as a gift."
     
    Osubuckeyes
    Posts: 1900
    Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 10:05 am

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Mon Mar 01, 2021 2:45 pm

    ethernal wrote:
    Regarding the new inbound testing requirements - I'm reiterating my position that this is going to suppress demand as long as it is in place. I just took my first international trip since the testing requirements were put in place. I will not be doing another trip so long as the testing requirements are in place. It's just too much of a pain to orchestrate everything for a short trip. I've already cancelled a late March trip as I don't see the requirements changing before then.

    The added travel stressors:
    * I had to make a reservation with the hotel, and I couldn't do it in advance which meant I had to do it in person. It was a 15 minute wait to get the appointment scheduled, and it ended up being at a very inconvenient time. I was staying at a relatively high end 5-star resort so my guess is that lower end hotels aren't offering a materially superior experience here.
    * The test was a nasal swab; the hotel had been very ambiguous about the type of test when I inquired about it which makes sense. Most people don't want a nasal swab. It doesn't bother me, but it does bother my partner. Not sure if they are doing nasal swabs because they are cheaper or more accurate (as opposed to a saliva antigen test).
    * Paper insanity. I had test results, I had my attestation form, I had my immigration form, and I had my COVID questionnaire - and then after waiting in the security line for 30 minutes I was told I needed to go back to the check-in counter to get a paper boarding pass (despite having an electronic one) because Delta does the doc check at check-in and not the gate.

    The whole thing was just added stress to the trip. This was on top of the existing questionnaires and forms that have to be filled out upon arrival (e-questionnaire) and at the hotel. The only way I'd consider dealing with it again is if it was part of a long trip (week+) and not a long weekend trip.

    I expect international Caribbean itineraries will continue to see significant suppression even when we start to see a strong resurgence in domestic leisure destination traffic until this order is changed (perhaps allowing a vaccine exclusion)


    This is an interesting contrast from what I've heard in my social circles/family. A whole bunch of different people I know have done Cabo trips (from PHX) both weeklong and weekend. The consensus is that the test thing is no big deal at all, everything was easy and handled by the resort with minimal added stress.

    The other thing that seems to be gaining traction is testing before you go if it is just a weekend trip. Testing Friday in the US with a Monday return still satisfies the 3 day requirement and allows for a quick trip (though it is somewhat limiting on how far you can travel).
     
    ethernal
    Posts: 482
    Joined: Mon May 06, 2019 12:09 pm

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:06 pm

    Osubuckeyes wrote:
    ethernal wrote:
    Regarding the new inbound testing requirements - I'm reiterating my position that this is going to suppress demand as long as it is in place. I just took my first international trip since the testing requirements were put in place. I will not be doing another trip so long as the testing requirements are in place. It's just too much of a pain to orchestrate everything for a short trip. I've already cancelled a late March trip as I don't see the requirements changing before then.

    The added travel stressors:
    * I had to make a reservation with the hotel, and I couldn't do it in advance which meant I had to do it in person. It was a 15 minute wait to get the appointment scheduled, and it ended up being at a very inconvenient time. I was staying at a relatively high end 5-star resort so my guess is that lower end hotels aren't offering a materially superior experience here.
    * The test was a nasal swab; the hotel had been very ambiguous about the type of test when I inquired about it which makes sense. Most people don't want a nasal swab. It doesn't bother me, but it does bother my partner. Not sure if they are doing nasal swabs because they are cheaper or more accurate (as opposed to a saliva antigen test).
    * Paper insanity. I had test results, I had my attestation form, I had my immigration form, and I had my COVID questionnaire - and then after waiting in the security line for 30 minutes I was told I needed to go back to the check-in counter to get a paper boarding pass (despite having an electronic one) because Delta does the doc check at check-in and not the gate.

    The whole thing was just added stress to the trip. This was on top of the existing questionnaires and forms that have to be filled out upon arrival (e-questionnaire) and at the hotel. The only way I'd consider dealing with it again is if it was part of a long trip (week+) and not a long weekend trip.

    I expect international Caribbean itineraries will continue to see significant suppression even when we start to see a strong resurgence in domestic leisure destination traffic until this order is changed (perhaps allowing a vaccine exclusion)


    This is an interesting contrast from what I've heard in my social circles/family. A whole bunch of different people I know have done Cabo trips (from PHX) both weeklong and weekend. The consensus is that the test thing is no big deal at all, everything was easy and handled by the resort with minimal added stress.

    The other thing that seems to be gaining traction is testing before you go if it is just a weekend trip. Testing Friday in the US with a Monday return still satisfies the 3 day requirement and allows for a quick trip (though it is somewhat limiting on how far you can travel).


    Obviously it's not going to eliminate travel. But it is going to materially suppress it. Perhaps the extra hassle doesn't bother some. It did me. Perhaps if the resort offered an online scheduling tool in advance it would have been less annoying.

    This was just the straw the broke the camel's back for me. It's just a lot of hassle. So many forms, so many questionnaires, changing processes, and so on. The Mexican questionnaire, for example, has changed for the third time in the past 10 months. It's now on yet-another-platform that is confusing (the old one was a lot easier to understand). The Delta check-in staff told me I needed to do the paper one, and then I said I did the online one, and they said "oh, that's... probably fine. But you may want to take the paper one just in case!" Not that it matters since they never seem to scan the QR code at any point even though they say it's required.

    I'm not angry that all of this is happening. It is what it is. It's just that - even for a relatively savvy traveler (I've been to 40+ countries, including those with some complex visa requirements, and was a weekly traveler for about a decade pre-COVID) - the process is just stress inducing. At the airport, I was not the only one that was confused (and to be clear, I *did* have everything I needed including the CDC attestation form... but apparently at CUN the airlines do the doc checks at the check-in counter and not the gate, even though it's not clear that's the case and they still issue an e-boarding pass via the app). Lots of people got turned away at security after a 30 minute wait for not having followed the (unclear) "right" process, with lots of cursing and frustration as they walked to the back of the line to go to their airline check-in desk to do things the "right" way - and possibly miss their flight given the chaos at the check-in desks. People remember frustrating travel experiences, and it does impact their future desire to travel. That's all I'm saying.

    The test-on-Friday thing is interesting. I was gone for three days (Thurs-Sun) so it wouldn't have worked for me. I'd also be hesitant to risk that, especially if you're on the last flight out on Sunday (likely if it's a weekend trip). A major flight delay or issue that ticks the departure out past midnight local time means your test results are no longer valid. I'd want at least a one-day buffer. Crap happens. When I got pulled into CBP secondary when I came back into the US I was sitting next to a Canadian citizen that was literally crying because she was going to miss her flight because she got detained in secondary for a couple of hours (because Delta lost her bag and they wanted to search it). It was the last day her PCR results were valid for entry into Canada, meaning that she was going to get stuck in the US for at least a couple of days (at her own expense) getting a new PCR test done. Obviously the US is easier (with an antigen test), but still, cutting it close is asking for trouble.
     
    Osubuckeyes
    Posts: 1900
    Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 10:05 am

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:31 pm

    ethernal wrote:
    Osubuckeyes wrote:
    ethernal wrote:
    Regarding the new inbound testing requirements - I'm reiterating my position that this is going to suppress demand as long as it is in place. I just took my first international trip since the testing requirements were put in place. I will not be doing another trip so long as the testing requirements are in place. It's just too much of a pain to orchestrate everything for a short trip. I've already cancelled a late March trip as I don't see the requirements changing before then.

    The added travel stressors:
    * I had to make a reservation with the hotel, and I couldn't do it in advance which meant I had to do it in person. It was a 15 minute wait to get the appointment scheduled, and it ended up being at a very inconvenient time. I was staying at a relatively high end 5-star resort so my guess is that lower end hotels aren't offering a materially superior experience here.
    * The test was a nasal swab; the hotel had been very ambiguous about the type of test when I inquired about it which makes sense. Most people don't want a nasal swab. It doesn't bother me, but it does bother my partner. Not sure if they are doing nasal swabs because they are cheaper or more accurate (as opposed to a saliva antigen test).
    * Paper insanity. I had test results, I had my attestation form, I had my immigration form, and I had my COVID questionnaire - and then after waiting in the security line for 30 minutes I was told I needed to go back to the check-in counter to get a paper boarding pass (despite having an electronic one) because Delta does the doc check at check-in and not the gate.

    The whole thing was just added stress to the trip. This was on top of the existing questionnaires and forms that have to be filled out upon arrival (e-questionnaire) and at the hotel. The only way I'd consider dealing with it again is if it was part of a long trip (week+) and not a long weekend trip.

    I expect international Caribbean itineraries will continue to see significant suppression even when we start to see a strong resurgence in domestic leisure destination traffic until this order is changed (perhaps allowing a vaccine exclusion)


    This is an interesting contrast from what I've heard in my social circles/family. A whole bunch of different people I know have done Cabo trips (from PHX) both weeklong and weekend. The consensus is that the test thing is no big deal at all, everything was easy and handled by the resort with minimal added stress.

    The other thing that seems to be gaining traction is testing before you go if it is just a weekend trip. Testing Friday in the US with a Monday return still satisfies the 3 day requirement and allows for a quick trip (though it is somewhat limiting on how far you can travel).


    Obviously it's not going to eliminate travel. But it is going to materially suppress it. Perhaps the extra hassle doesn't bother some. It did me. Perhaps if the resort offered an online scheduling tool in advance it would have been less annoying.

    This was just the straw the broke the camel's back for me. It's just a lot of hassle. So many forms, so many questionnaires, changing processes, and so on. The Mexican questionnaire, for example, has changed for the third time in the past 10 months. It's now on yet-another-platform that is confusing (the old one was a lot easier to understand). The Delta check-in staff told me I needed to do the paper one, and then I said I did the online one, and they said "oh, that's... probably fine. But you may want to take the paper one just in case!" Not that it matters since they never seem to scan the QR code at any point even though they say it's required.

    I'm not angry that all of this is happening. It is what it is. It's just that - even for a relatively savvy traveler (I've been to 40+ countries, including those with some complex visa requirements, and was a weekly traveler for about a decade pre-COVID) - the process is just stress inducing. At the airport, I was not the only one that was confused (and to be clear, I *did* have everything I needed including the CDC attestation form... but apparently at CUN the airlines do the doc checks at the check-in counter and not the gate, even though it's not clear that's the case and they still issue an e-boarding pass via the app). Lots of people got turned away at security after a 30 minute wait for not having followed the (unclear) "right" process, with lots of cursing and frustration as they walked to the back of the line to go to their airline check-in desk to do things the "right" way - and possibly miss their flight given the chaos at the check-in desks. People remember frustrating travel experiences, and it does impact their future desire to travel. That's all I'm saying.

    The test-on-Friday thing is interesting. I was gone for three days (Thurs-Sun) so it wouldn't have worked for me. I'd also be hesitant to risk that, especially if you're on the last flight out on Sunday (likely if it's a weekend trip). A major flight delay or issue that ticks the departure out past midnight local time means your test results are no longer valid. I'd want at least a one-day buffer. Crap happens. When I got pulled into CBP secondary when I came back into the US I was sitting next to a Canadian citizen that was literally crying because she was going to miss her flight because she got detained in secondary for a couple of hours (because Delta lost her bag and they wanted to search it). It was the last day her PCR results were valid for entry into Canada, meaning that she was going to get stuck in the US for at least a couple of days (at her own expense) getting a new PCR test done. Obviously the US is easier (with an antigen test), but still, cutting it close is asking for trouble.


    I tend to agree that the requirement will suppress travel to Intl destinations, and people's travelling decisions will be influenced by experiences shared by others close to them (good or bad). I do think frequent travelers may get dissuaded more due to the inconvenience of the process that you outline versus someone who hasn't been on vacation in over a year. Most of the people I know were going to make the trip happen no matter what since they have full PTO banks and haven't left AZ since before March 2020.

    As far as the Thursday-Sunday testing that would have worked for you since Sunday is the 3rd day (note that the CDC requirement is 3 days not 72 hours). To your next point regarding delays and such, there is a provision in the CDC guidance that extends the eligibility of the qualifying test another 24-48 hours depending on the circumstance (how well it works in practice is probably another matter though), and wouldn't address the Canadian example you brought up.

    I think the most important thing is for policies like these in terms of travel recovery is consistency and clarity. It is confusing at first but once people/airlines/resorts are clear on the policies then people are more comfortable leaving the country, but that is all sacrificed if policies are changing all the time. A good example of this would be Hawaii within the first few weeks having unclear procedures, changing requirements and islands opting out, though most of that has been sorted out over the following months (Kauai being the exception).
     
    ethernal
    Posts: 482
    Joined: Mon May 06, 2019 12:09 pm

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:51 pm

    Osubuckeyes wrote:
    I tend to agree that the requirement will suppress travel to Intl destinations, and people's travelling decisions will be influenced by experiences shared by others close to them (good or bad). I do think frequent travelers may get dissuaded more due to the inconvenience of the process that you outline versus someone who hasn't been on vacation in over a year. Most of the people I know were going to make the trip happen no matter what since they have full PTO banks and haven't left AZ since before March 2020.


    Fair enough. Although I assume in the case of those folks they would make it a longer trip - in which case the complexity of arrival, departure, and testing is a smaller portion of the overall trip.


    As far as the Thursday-Sunday testing that would have worked for you since Sunday is the 3rd day (note that the CDC requirement is 3 days not 72 hours). To your next point regarding delays and such, there is a provision in the CDC guidance that extends the eligibility of the qualifying test another 24-48 hours depending on the circumstance (how well it works in practice is probably another matter though), and wouldn't address the Canadian example you brought up.


    Yes, you are right, in theory. The "three calendar days preceding your flight departure" - it is somewhat ambiguous. The CDC example says that a test on Tuesday is fine for a flight on Friday (i.e., the three calendar days are Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and then "Friday" is the day upon which the three prior days are calculated). But go read - for example - the Delta definition of the requirements. It says that you must have taken the test within three days of departure. That is a very different statement than "within the three calendar days prior to departure."

    Similarly, the CDC guidance says "If the initial departing flight in your trip is delayed before departure, you will need to get re-tested if the delay causes your test to fall outside of the 3-day pre-departure testing period by more than 24 hours." What does that mean, exactly? Why the mix of calendar days and then 24 hours? I assume that is intentional. They do not say "you get an extra calendar day." They say, "if it exceeds the window by 24 hours". That - to me - means the change of day. In other words, a test on Tuesday is no longer valid on Saturday in any circumstances. Delta's guidance here is technically ambiguous (because it refers back to the CDC order) but they say "The CDC order requires that customers whose test has been taken outside of the 3 days before departure requirement must be re-tested and obtain a negative result prior to departure to the U.S." This implies that falling outside the window at all will result in a required re-test.

    If I'm flying Delta, and my docs are getting checked by an agent who probably took a 30 minute virtual training on this topic - do I have any legs to stand on if they disagree with any interpretation of the CDC guidance relative to Delta's interpretation? Probably not. Again, stress and confusion. Maybe a test I took in the US on Thursday would be accepted by Delta for a flight on Sunday. But it's not abundantly clear. And Delta is one of the better airlines providing guidance. If I look at Spirit, there is no clarification on the delay situation. They do at least clearly cite the CDC example for three calendar days prior which reduces ambiguity relative to Delta's guidance. Now, you could argue that Delta is being conservative to avoid someone making a bad decision, but again, they are the ones letting me on the flight - not the CDC. So I have to assume the worst case based on Delta's guidance.


    I think the most important thing is for policies like these in terms of travel recovery is consistency and clarity. It is confusing at first but once people/airlines/resorts are clear on the policies then people are more comfortable leaving the country, but that is all sacrificed if policies are changing all the time. A good example of this would be Hawaii within the first few weeks having unclear procedures, changing requirements and islands opting out, though most of that has been sorted out over the following months (Kauai being the exception).


    I agree with this, but it's also why I cancelled a trip the first week of February and moved it to the end of February. I had assumed that the kinks would mostly be sorted out. It seems to me that they haven't been fully sorted yet.
     
    User avatar
    Midwestindy
    Topic Author
    Posts: 6217
    Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Mon Mar 01, 2021 5:11 pm

    Things picking up booking wise, but that is just "happy talk" ;) :

    -Saw in my inbox this morning WN is offering a $29 fare sale again, we'll likely see some fare war action over the upcoming weeks which will further increase booking activity

    "Domestic traffic, revenue, and bookings trends are all picking up on a week-to-week basis, according to UBS analyst Myles Walton, who sees the situation improving further.

    “As we look out to late March and into spring, we see some of the pent-up demand likely starting to release domestically as the vaccine rollout ramps,” he wrote in a note last week.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/airlin ... 1614614787

    Image
    https://www2.arccorp.com/about-us/newsr ... y-28-2021/

    Loads picking up
    Image
    https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#
    ORD & IND

    AA & DL
     
    tphuang
    Posts: 6616
    Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:12 pm

    Midwestindy wrote:
    Things picking up booking wise, but that is just "happy talk" ;) :

    -Saw in my inbox this morning WN is offering a $29 fare sale again, we'll likely see some fare war action over the upcoming weeks which will further increase booking activity

    "Domestic traffic, revenue, and bookings trends are all picking up on a week-to-week basis, according to UBS analyst Myles Walton, who sees the situation improving further.

    “As we look out to late March and into spring, we see some of the pent-up demand likely starting to release domestically as the vaccine rollout ramps,” he wrote in a note last week.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/airlin ... 1614614787

    Image
    https://www2.arccorp.com/about-us/newsr ... y-28-2021/

    Loads picking up
    Image
    https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#


    any new updates on the sales by city?
     
    NolaMD88fan
    Posts: 1666
    Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2014 4:07 am

    Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

    Tue Mar 02, 2021 4:03 pm

    tphuang wrote:
    any new updates on the sales by city?


    Kayak just updated for last weeks search trends. Someone more expert can detail how this computes to bookings, but I'm sure is a correlation.

    https://www.kayak.com/flight-trends

    Here are the top 10 destinations in terms of search trends as compared to the same week last year.

    KOA (+48%)
    OGG (+12%)
    RSW (+8%)
    MIA (+3%)
    CUN (-3%)
    HNL (-7%)
    TPA (-7%)
    SJU (-8%)
    IST (-9%) interesting
    PUJ (-11%)

    Nearly all of the remaining destinations have seen increased search activity this past week to some degree, but still remain below levels seen the same week last year.

    Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: asqx, Bing [Bot], davidjohnson6, FARmd90, JoseSalazar, NZ6, petertenthije, Planeboy17, remcor, rutankrd, SCFlyer, TheF15Ace, toobz, tootallsd, xjet, ZOASAN and 163 guests

    Popular Searches On Airliners.net

    Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

    Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

    Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

    Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

    Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

    Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

    Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

    Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

    Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

    Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

    Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

    Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

    Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

    Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

    Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos