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frmrCapCadet
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Mar 02, 2021 4:53 pm

Only a little off topic. I have a small cruising boat, kids also have their small boats, and one of the more popular trips (which I haven't done yet) is up to the San Juan Islands, the Canadian Gulf Island, and up the east coast of Vancouver Island. No can do. Canada has pretty much shut the door. We are all hoping after Canada and the US are vaccinated, those borders will open up, but for now it is not an option.
 
ethernal
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:12 am

The white house is publicly committing to providing enough vaccinations to the states to vaccinate all adults (presumably all willing adults - doubt it's actually enough to cover all adults period) by end of May - two months earlier than previously projected. Apparently it's related to Merck providing additional capacity for the one-shot JnJ vaccine.

I'm surprised it's not hitting the news cycle a bit more - to me this was headline news. This could result in further upticks of bookings in the May/June/July timeframe. It wouldn't surprise me if the summer ends up as the busiest travel season ever in terms of domestic leisure passengers (still below total traffic due to depressed international and business bookings).
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:06 am

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Things picking up booking wise, but that is just "happy talk" ;) :

-Saw in my inbox this morning WN is offering a $29 fare sale again, we'll likely see some fare war action over the upcoming weeks which will further increase booking activity

"Domestic traffic, revenue, and bookings trends are all picking up on a week-to-week basis, according to UBS analyst Myles Walton, who sees the situation improving further.

“As we look out to late March and into spring, we see some of the pent-up demand likely starting to release domestically as the vaccine rollout ramps,” he wrote in a note last week.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/airlin ... 1614614787

Image
https://www2.arccorp.com/about-us/newsr ... y-28-2021/

Loads picking up
Image
https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#


any new updates on the sales by city?


Check your DMs

ethernal wrote:
The white house is publicly committing to providing enough vaccinations to the states to vaccinate all adults (presumably all willing adults - doubt it's actually enough to cover all adults period) by end of May - two months earlier than previously projected. Apparently it's related to Merck providing additional capacity for the one-shot JnJ vaccine.

I'm surprised it's not hitting the news cycle a bit more - to me this was headline news. This could result in further upticks of bookings in the May/June/July timeframe. It wouldn't surprise me if the summer ends up as the busiest travel season ever in terms of domestic leisure passengers (still below total traffic due to depressed international and business bookings).


Probably didn't get much attention because of the news from Texas.

NK actually revised their outlook recently, actually now planning to grow vs. 2019 this summer, so I presume all the ULCCs will be growing vs. 2019 from May-onwards. Overall domestic leisure should be quite robust over the summer.

Based on a recent UBS report on corporate booking activity, it looks like we'll see around 25% of normal corporate travel sometime next month, and likely finish 2021 40-50% of normal corporate travel.
 
ethernal
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:42 am

Midwestindy wrote:
NK actually revised their outlook recently, actually now planning to grow vs. 2019 this summer, so I presume all the ULCCs will be growing vs. 2019 from May-onwards. Overall domestic leisure should be quite robust over the summer.


I think this makes complete sense. Their fleets have grown since 2019, they have few international routes that will have lingering restrictions and/or complexities, and have a much smaller proportion of business traffic.

Based on a recent UBS report on corporate booking activity, it looks like we'll see around 25% of normal corporate travel sometime next month, and likely finish 2021 40-50% of normal corporate travel.


I'm assuming the UBS report is private? I'd be very curious to see the research there. I could see net bookings being 25% of normal by mid-April (i.e. for flights in May and forward-scheduled events for offsites, etc taking place even further in the year as confidence rises) but I'd be surprised if actual butt-in-seat volumes are that high unless corporate includes SMB purchases. I work with F1000 clients across a broad swath of industries and virtually every one is taking a hyper conservative approach to getting people back in the air on a regular basis. That said, I am sure that UBS' position is much more informed than mine. Which is why I'm curious to read the research if it's public!

I obviously don't have research but my thumb-in-the-air guess is that there will be a sharp uptick in butts-in-seat business travel starting around June/July (calendar effects are at play here too.. many firms following a calendar fiscal have already stripped travel budgets through H1 of the calendar year) but it will quickly plateau around 50-60% of old volumes and then it will be slow growth from there as some forms of business travel have been permanently disrupted and others (e.g. conferences) have mostly already been cancelled out for all but the very end of 2021.
 
MaxTrimm
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:10 am

Anyone think Texas’s full reopening will stimulate some extra demand here in the coming weeks as the rest of the country begins to open up, albeit not as quickly?
 
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2nd2none
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:21 am

Some interesting numbers:

Israel is one of the foremost nations when it comes to Covid 19 vaccinations 39,7 % of the population is fully vaccinated and 55,1 % got at least one shot, but Israel yesterday had 5,260 new cases, that would be the same as about 189,000 new cases in the US (the population in the US is 36 times the population in Israel), so based on these facts what to expext in the near future?

I see an uphill batle for international travel despite the vaccine efforts?

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/shar ... gion=World

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/shar ... gion=World

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/israel/
 
Silver1SWA
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:36 am

MaxTrimm wrote:
Anyone think Texas’s full reopening will stimulate some extra demand here in the coming weeks as the rest of the country begins to open up, albeit not as quickly?


We have already seen some states implement mandatory quarantines for passengers arriving from hotspot states so it could happen here with Texas.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:59 pm

ethernal wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
NK actually revised their outlook recently, actually now planning to grow vs. 2019 this summer, so I presume all the ULCCs will be growing vs. 2019 from May-onwards. Overall domestic leisure should be quite robust over the summer.


I think this makes complete sense. Their fleets have grown since 2019, they have few international routes that will have lingering restrictions and/or complexities, and have a much smaller proportion of business traffic.

Based on a recent UBS report on corporate booking activity, it looks like we'll see around 25% of normal corporate travel sometime next month, and likely finish 2021 40-50% of normal corporate travel.


I'm assuming the UBS report is private? I'd be very curious to see the research there. I could see net bookings being 25% of normal by mid-April (i.e. for flights in May and forward-scheduled events for offsites, etc taking place even further in the year as confidence rises) but I'd be surprised if actual butt-in-seat volumes are that high unless corporate includes SMB purchases. I work with F1000 clients across a broad swath of industries and virtually every one is taking a hyper conservative approach to getting people back in the air on a regular basis. That said, I am sure that UBS' position is much more informed than mine. Which is why I'm curious to read the research if it's public!

I obviously don't have research but my thumb-in-the-air guess is that there will be a sharp uptick in butts-in-seat business travel starting around June/July (calendar effects are at play here too.. many firms following a calendar fiscal have already stripped travel budgets through H1 of the calendar year) but it will quickly plateau around 50-60% of old volumes and then it will be slow growth from there as some forms of business travel have been permanently disrupted and others (e.g. conferences) have mostly already been cancelled out for all but the very end of 2021.


Yeah it's a private report.

Currently (still early), they reported corporate bookings at 25% YOY for April travel. Corporate travel(butts-in-seats) is currently in the 15% range, so 25% by mid-late doesn't seem far-fetched.
 
ethernal
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:05 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
ethernal wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
NK actually revised their outlook recently, actually now planning to grow vs. 2019 this summer, so I presume all the ULCCs will be growing vs. 2019 from May-onwards. Overall domestic leisure should be quite robust over the summer.


I think this makes complete sense. Their fleets have grown since 2019, they have few international routes that will have lingering restrictions and/or complexities, and have a much smaller proportion of business traffic.

Based on a recent UBS report on corporate booking activity, it looks like we'll see around 25% of normal corporate travel sometime next month, and likely finish 2021 40-50% of normal corporate travel.


I'm assuming the UBS report is private? I'd be very curious to see the research there. I could see net bookings being 25% of normal by mid-April (i.e. for flights in May and forward-scheduled events for offsites, etc taking place even further in the year as confidence rises) but I'd be surprised if actual butt-in-seat volumes are that high unless corporate includes SMB purchases. I work with F1000 clients across a broad swath of industries and virtually every one is taking a hyper conservative approach to getting people back in the air on a regular basis. That said, I am sure that UBS' position is much more informed than mine. Which is why I'm curious to read the research if it's public!

I obviously don't have research but my thumb-in-the-air guess is that there will be a sharp uptick in butts-in-seat business travel starting around June/July (calendar effects are at play here too.. many firms following a calendar fiscal have already stripped travel budgets through H1 of the calendar year) but it will quickly plateau around 50-60% of old volumes and then it will be slow growth from there as some forms of business travel have been permanently disrupted and others (e.g. conferences) have mostly already been cancelled out for all but the very end of 2021.


Yeah it's a private report.

Currently (still early), they reported corporate bookings at 25% YOY for April travel. Corporate travel(butts-in-seats) is currently in the 15% range, so 25% by mid-late doesn't seem far-fetched.


Do you know how they define corporate travel? Is it inclusive of SMB? Smaller companies (call it <$2-3B in revenue) seem to have returned to widespread travel quicker than large ones. I could see SMB+Large Corporate being at 25% by mid-to-late April. Large corp alone I'd be skeptical.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Mar 03, 2021 4:22 pm

2nd2none wrote:
Some interesting numbers:

Israel is one of the foremost nations when it comes to Covid 19 vaccinations 39,7 % of the population is fully vaccinated and 55,1 % got at least one shot, but Israel yesterday had 5,260 new cases, that would be the same as about 189,000 new cases in the US (the population in the US is 36 times the population in Israel), so based on these facts what to expext in the near future?

I see an uphill batle for international travel despite the vaccine efforts?

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/shar ... gion=World

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/shar ... gion=World

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/israel/

Israel has a huge orthodox community that doesn’t get vaccines and congregates together in large groups.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:37 pm

ethernal wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
ethernal wrote:


I think this makes complete sense. Their fleets have grown since 2019, they have few international routes that will have lingering restrictions and/or complexities, and have a much smaller proportion of business traffic.



I'm assuming the UBS report is private? I'd be very curious to see the research there. I could see net bookings being 25% of normal by mid-April (i.e. for flights in May and forward-scheduled events for offsites, etc taking place even further in the year as confidence rises) but I'd be surprised if actual butt-in-seat volumes are that high unless corporate includes SMB purchases. I work with F1000 clients across a broad swath of industries and virtually every one is taking a hyper conservative approach to getting people back in the air on a regular basis. That said, I am sure that UBS' position is much more informed than mine. Which is why I'm curious to read the research if it's public!

I obviously don't have research but my thumb-in-the-air guess is that there will be a sharp uptick in butts-in-seat business travel starting around June/July (calendar effects are at play here too.. many firms following a calendar fiscal have already stripped travel budgets through H1 of the calendar year) but it will quickly plateau around 50-60% of old volumes and then it will be slow growth from there as some forms of business travel have been permanently disrupted and others (e.g. conferences) have mostly already been cancelled out for all but the very end of 2021.


Yeah it's a private report.

Currently (still early), they reported corporate bookings at 25% YOY for April travel. Corporate travel(butts-in-seats) is currently in the 15% range, so 25% by mid-late doesn't seem far-fetched.


Do you know how they define corporate travel? Is it inclusive of SMB? Smaller companies (call it <$2-3B in revenue) seem to have returned to widespread travel quicker than large ones. I could see SMB+Large Corporate being at 25% by mid-to-late April. Large corp alone I'd be skeptical.

Yep, its an interesting dynamic. Small businesses have been for the most part in the offices, and are traveling. They don't have the technology budgets, or the dynamics of dealing with the challenges of large offices, and corporate bureaucracy/risk-management.

Large companies really aren't in a big hurry to push on getting back into offices or travel. Like said, most of the stuff I've seen from a variety of sources is looking at June / July at the earliest. There isn't a big push until vaccination rates get higher and there is sustained downward trends. Also logistical challenges with schools/child care and wanting finish-out whatever model of schooling people are doing under the current circumstances before trying to get people back into offices and disrupt schedules / child care arrangements.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:43 pm

Any people tracking TSA screenings should be switching over to 2019 as the baseline (if they have not already), screenings are quickly approaching 1M/day regardless, end of March should be averaging around 55% of 2019.

Not much improvement in Mexico traffic since mandatory testing was implemented

Image
Image
https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#
 
williaminsd
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Mar 05, 2021 2:15 pm

Anecdotal - but quick trip to SMF yesterday. As most people know, Southwest is not blocking middle seats. SAN-SMF on a 700 looked to have about 15 seats empty. Next to our gate flight for Vegas was leaving. Agent made announcement that flight was 100% full and if that made any passengers "uncomfortable," please come to counter for "alternative" arrangements. Didn't see anybody do it. Also, only F&B open was Peet's Coffee in the early morning and line went halfway around the infamous "banjo" concourse.

Return flight left at 3:00 on an 800. About the same load, but bigger plane obviously. Most striking difference was nearly all F&B in Concourse "B" was open and packed including the two full service, sit-down restaurants, L15 and the Esquire Grill.

Hard for me to remember just how bustling airports were pre-lockdown, but SMF sure seemed busy...

Next week I am off to PHX again and my first trip to SFO in 2021. Last time I was at SFO it was depressingly grim. Looking forward to see if like SMF, SFO is showing signs of life.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:04 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Any people tracking TSA screenings should be switching over to 2019 as the baseline (if they have not already), screenings are quickly approaching 1M/day regardless, end of March should be averaging around 55% of 2019.

Not much improvement in Mexico traffic since mandatory testing was implemented

Image
Image
https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

The tsa website has bad formatting on mobile (iPhone) have to switch to horizontal to see 2019. I can’t wait for airlines to start telling Wall Street about their 100s of percent YOY increase over the next couple months.
 
altairF28
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:32 pm

Question for the OP: are you able to track booking trends by airport? With Texas allowing businesses to end all restrictions Wednesday, although it isn't clear how many places will do it, and lots of people talking about what a bad idea this is and how this could single-handedly cause a fourth surge I wonder if this will hurt AA and/or WN by causing people to shy away from connecting at DFW/DAL and IAH/HOU? Yes I know masks are still required at the airport and on the plane but we already have a lot of people ignoring those rules and could have even more with the state no longer requiring them.
 
MaxTrimm
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:19 pm

I think the “this is a horrible idea and will cost lives” people are more vocal on social media versus actual actions. All pandemic, we’ve seen people fail to practice what they preach, and when it comes to it, the people who truly find Gov. Abbott’s decision a deathwish won’t be flying anyways. Even people who are flying probably wouldn’t actively go out of their way to avoid Texas airports. At this point in the pandemic, if you go to any hub airport during a bank its going to be packed. If people TRULY find it a deathwish like you’d think if you only look at social media, I reckon they wouldn’t (and shouldn’t) be flying at all.
 
RicFlyer
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:22 pm

altairF28 wrote:
Question for the OP: are you able to track booking trends by airport? With Texas allowing businesses to end all restrictions Wednesday, although it isn't clear how many places will do it, and lots of people talking about what a bad idea this is and how this could single-handedly cause a fourth surge I wonder if this will hurt AA and/or WN by causing people to shy away from connecting at DFW/DAL and IAH/HOU? Yes I know masks are still required at the airport and on the plane but we already have a lot of people ignoring those rules and could have even more with the state no longer requiring them.


I don't think it will matter much. It has not hurt DL in Atlanta. Georgia has never had a state facemask order. It was left up to each business to decide what they wanted to do. As we all know its a federal mandate that you wear one in the airport and on the plane. As far as people ignoring the mask rules on planes I have travel 15,000 miles this year (2021) and I have not had one flight where someone did not wear a mask. I think social media may make it seem big but out of the millions traveling each week it just a few not complying.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:17 am

ethernal wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
ethernal wrote:


I think this makes complete sense. Their fleets have grown since 2019, they have few international routes that will have lingering restrictions and/or complexities, and have a much smaller proportion of business traffic.



I'm assuming the UBS report is private? I'd be very curious to see the research there. I could see net bookings being 25% of normal by mid-April (i.e. for flights in May and forward-scheduled events for offsites, etc taking place even further in the year as confidence rises) but I'd be surprised if actual butt-in-seat volumes are that high unless corporate includes SMB purchases. I work with F1000 clients across a broad swath of industries and virtually every one is taking a hyper conservative approach to getting people back in the air on a regular basis. That said, I am sure that UBS' position is much more informed than mine. Which is why I'm curious to read the research if it's public!

I obviously don't have research but my thumb-in-the-air guess is that there will be a sharp uptick in butts-in-seat business travel starting around June/July (calendar effects are at play here too.. many firms following a calendar fiscal have already stripped travel budgets through H1 of the calendar year) but it will quickly plateau around 50-60% of old volumes and then it will be slow growth from there as some forms of business travel have been permanently disrupted and others (e.g. conferences) have mostly already been cancelled out for all but the very end of 2021.


Yeah it's a private report.

Currently (still early), they reported corporate bookings at 25% YOY for April travel. Corporate travel(butts-in-seats) is currently in the 15% range, so 25% by mid-late doesn't seem far-fetched.


Do you know how they define corporate travel? Is it inclusive of SMB? Smaller companies (call it <$2-3B in revenue) seem to have returned to widespread travel quicker than large ones. I could see SMB+Large Corporate being at 25% by mid-to-late April. Large corp alone I'd be skeptical.


I must have missed this, if I am understanding your question, corporate travel is generally defined (airlines are more granular in their definition) by method of booking.

In other words, they are just measuring the amount of corporate volumes(big or small) booked through travel agencies like Egencia, Concur, e.t.c. (which handle the vast majority of corporate volumes)

The corporate travel volumes that aren't accounted for are not the $2-3B dollar companies, but normally the companies that have under maybe $50-100M in revenue & don't have corporate travel agreements (which are normally very small companies).

Even then, airlines themselves can usually measure corporate travel down to really small businesses who don't use travel agents, by using programs like AA Business Extra. But by the time you get to that size it is a small piece of the overall pie.

tl:dr, UBS does not define corporate travel by business size, but from an airline perspective that is something they follow

altairF28 wrote:
Question for the OP: are you able to track booking trends by airport? With Texas allowing businesses to end all restrictions Wednesday, although it isn't clear how many places will do it, and lots of people talking about what a bad idea this is and how this could single-handedly cause a fourth surge I wonder if this will hurt AA and/or WN by causing people to shy away from connecting at DFW/DAL and IAH/HOU? Yes I know masks are still required at the airport and on the plane but we already have a lot of people ignoring those rules and could have even more with the state no longer requiring them.


I've posted trends by airport/city a few times further upthread, although I'd say we won't see much impact to bookings from this decision specifically. Even if all restrictions remained in place through Wednesday, bookings would still continue their uptick just due to increased confidence in air travel & vaccinations.

Texas was already one of the least restrictive states when it came to COVID, the biggest shifts will likely be in the Northeast & California where travel was the most restricted & where there has been the most "peer pressure" not to travel.

I think in a couple weeks the Texas news will be overshadowed by other states doing the same, Arizona already announced today they would also remove restrictions.

I'll try to post next week a breakdown by airport if it is available.
 
mcogator
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Mar 06, 2021 1:03 am

2nd2none wrote:
Some interesting numbers:

Israel is one of the foremost nations when it comes to Covid 19 vaccinations 39,7 % of the population is fully vaccinated and 55,1 % got at least one shot, but Israel yesterday had 5,260 new cases, that would be the same as about 189,000 new cases in the US (the population in the US is 36 times the population in Israel), so based on these facts what to expext in the near future?

I see an uphill batle for international travel despite the vaccine efforts?

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/shar ... gion=World

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/shar ... gion=World

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/israel/

This is an important tidbit:

Israel launched its national vaccination campaign in December prioritizing people 60 and older, health-care workers, and people with comorbid conditions. By February, the researchers said, 84% of the population 70 and older had been fully immunized with the Pfizer-BioNTech two-shot vaccine. Only 10% of the population under 50 years old had been vaccinated by the same time, the researchers said.


And then this:

Seventy-five percent of new COVID-19 cases in Israel are under the age of 39, a new report by Israel's Coronavirus Information Center published on Sunday shows.

Additionally, the report revealed that as much as 15 percent of patients in a serious condition are age 39 or younger, a figure which has steadily increased since December.



So once the more active socially and professionally age group, age 50 and under, recieve their vaccinations, they should see a sizable drop.
 
maps4ltd
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Mar 06, 2021 1:17 am

altairF28 wrote:
Question for the OP: are you able to track booking trends by airport? With Texas allowing businesses to end all restrictions Wednesday, although it isn't clear how many places will do it, and lots of people talking about what a bad idea this is and how this could single-handedly cause a fourth surge I wonder if this will hurt AA and/or WN by causing people to shy away from connecting at DFW/DAL and IAH/HOU? Yes I know masks are still required at the airport and on the plane but we already have a lot of people ignoring those rules and could have even more with the state no longer requiring them.

I'd actually shy away from a state with stricter COVID protocols. Not connecting, but if I had a choice for a trip on STL-PHX vs STL-LGA, I wouldn't do New York because I don't want to quarantine and/or get a test.
 
williaminsd
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Mar 07, 2021 3:51 pm

My flight to SFO from SAN today shows two seats open on the 76-seat E175. AS is now running 5x/day SAN-SFO compared to 2x/day in February...
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Mar 07, 2021 11:45 pm

Alot of future corporate bookings will be cancelled that at booked. I know several people who booked conferences before policies have gotten harder just to book them. Lots will be cancelled when those conventions dont happen or companies push back dates
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 08, 2021 2:14 am

I have been in out of DTW and DEN over the past week, and at both airports, at least in the times around the departure & arrival banks the airports seems as busy I've seen anywhere in the past year, and the most "normal" crowds/experience/atmosphere I've seen.

Spring break is full-on. Last Sunday, the spring break crowd was full-on departing out of DTW. Yesterday, Saturday, in DEN, the WN baggage claim area was a nut-house looks as crazy as ever.
DTW was about as typically busy as you would see on a Saturday evening.

Flying is not the super weird zombie apocalypse experience that it was last summer or even midweek this fall or in January. It feels normal, you are seeing a lot more families/children, and elderly passengers flying again.

I was in Colorado ski country for the past week. The mountain was deserted midweek, but by Friday the spring break crowd was rolling in big time. The next 3-4 weeks are peak spring break travel periods. We should be seeing some big daily numbers the next several weeks (except for Tue & Wed which stil still lag.

The biggest gap right on (on weekends) is the lack of international travel which suppressing demand and traffic big time at major international gateway airports. And, cruise traffic.
During the week, its the lack of business travel.
 
Vctony
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 08, 2021 2:49 am

I work at PHX. The last few days during the “peak” times the airport has felt normal. Traffic is on the upswing and even other employees were commenting how normal it feels. Tons of families and people of all ages. I’ve also noticed that some of the road warriors are starting to travel again.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 08, 2021 4:27 am

Completely anecdotal, but my UA flights to see my now fully vaccinated parents (I get my second dose on Friday) in April have seen a change to higher capacity aircraft on all legs. That seems very promising to me.
 
MaxTrimm
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 08, 2021 4:50 am

All very good signs above. Again, and I’ve said this before, airports during arrival/departure banks have been and felt normal for months. What we’re starting to see is the addition of extra banks of flights as traffic picks up, which gives the “nonstop busyness” feel that makes things feel normal. I follow PHX very closely, and it’s certainly picked up. AA has added a mid-afternoon departure bank and a late evening arrival bank as well as several redeyes. It’s really looking promising right now on the domestic side.
 
dfwking
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 08, 2021 9:53 am

Does anyone know what percentage of traffic in 2019 was international v. domestic? It would be interesting to understand how far domestic has recovered vs. international?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:34 pm

1,277,719 TSA screenings yesterday (59% of 2019), 2nd busiest day since the pandemic, peak Spring Break hasn't even hit.

Tried to tell you all a month ago that March would see a huge jump....

dfwking wrote:
Does anyone know what percentage of traffic in 2019 was international v. domestic? It would be interesting to understand how far domestic has recovered vs. international?


You can find your answer if you scroll up to post #1360

Even breaks international into TPAC, TATL, LATIN, & Mexico
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:37 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
1,277,719 TSA screenings yesterday (59% of 2019), 2nd busiest day since the pandemic, peak Spring Break hasn't even hit.

Tried to tell you all a month ago that March would see a huge jump....

dfwking wrote:
Does anyone know what percentage of traffic in 2019 was international v. domestic? It would be interesting to understand how far domestic has recovered vs. international?


You can find your answer if you scroll up to post #1360

Even breaks international into TPAC, TATL, LATIN, & Mexico

I believe you! 2,000,000 soon
 
williaminsd
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:39 pm

I have been in out of DTW and DEN over the past week, and at both airports, at least in the times around the departure & arrival banks the airports seems as busy I've seen anywhere in the past year, and the most "normal" crowds/experience/atmosphere I've seen.


I work at PHX. The last few days during the “peak” times the airport has felt normal. Traffic is on the upswing and even other employees were commenting how normal it feels. Tons of families and people of all ages. I’ve also noticed that some of the road warriors are starting to travel again.


I have been in out of DTW and DEN over the past week, and at both airports, at least in the times around the departure & arrival banks the airports seems as busy I've seen anywhere in the past year, and the most "normal" crowds/experience/atmosphere I've seen


This feeling of a return to normality reflects my experience on SAN-SFO yesterday as well. While I realize we have a way to go, SAN's T2-E was absolutely bursting yesterday. Crowded at the uber drop-off in front (driver had to navigate for a spot for the first time in a year), line at TSA, swarming concourse, teaming gate areas, sold-out flights. Best of all, nearly every F&B and retail was open with customers.

Still only beer and wine (because after all, covid only attacks Scotch drinkers in California and lets Cab drinkers alone because science!), but it was so gratifying seeing people enjoying themselves at the airport again, especially those shop owners/employees whose livelihoods have been crippled by the lockdown.

My flight ended-up 100% full. Up front, Alaska presents a snack basket on the short flight (not at all different from pre-lockdown), and yup... only beer and wine (science!), but I actually saw people talking to each other on this flight. What a concept!

It was a bit of a tale of two cities though. SFO was surprisingly morose with only Sunset News, Peet's Coffee, and the Burger Joint open in T2(D) and few people in the huge concourse other than those from our flight and in complete contrast to San Diego, people continue speaking only in hushed tones. Maybe it's different over at the United hub in T3. BTW - Burger Joint had... BEER & WINE!

I'm off to PHX tomorrow evening. As I haven't really been there outside of bank times in the last eight months, Concourse "A" in T4 always seemed reasonably busy, but if you got too far away, it got quiet pretty quickly. Would be delighted to see it bustling again throughout the terminal.

Of course, even when it's quiet at PHX, at least you can get a SCOTCH...
Last edited by williaminsd on Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:40 pm

32andBelow wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
1,277,719 TSA screenings yesterday (59% of 2019), 2nd busiest day since the pandemic, peak Spring Break hasn't even hit.

Tried to tell you all a month ago that March would see a huge jump....


I believe you! 2,000,000 soon


I wish! I'll be happy with up to 1.4-1.5M by late March
 
williaminsd
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:47 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
1,277,719 TSA screenings yesterday (59% of 2019), 2nd busiest day since the pandemic, peak Spring Break hasn't even hit.

Tried to tell you all a month ago that March would see a huge jump....

dfwking wrote:
Does anyone know what percentage of traffic in 2019 was international v. domestic? It would be interesting to understand how far domestic has recovered vs. international?


You can find your answer if you scroll up to post #1360

Even breaks international into TPAC, TATL, LATIN, & Mexico


Be gone with your happy talk!

I was one of those 1,277,719 yesterday. Can't speak for the other terminals at SAN, but the dungeon we call T2E was a celebration.
 
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2nd2none
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:02 pm

TSA numbers from previous week March 1 - March 7 2021 both days included are at 7,116,361 (50,3 %) compared to the same weekdays in 2020 14,157,300.

Sunday was the king of the week at 1,277,719 and 60.3 % of same day in 2020.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput
 
AmericanAir88
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:08 pm

Airports are looking quite “normal” I feel recently. EWR Terminal C has been packed with tons of activity. Same goes for the usual of ORD and DFW.

I hope these trends are here to stay. As vaccinations increase and restrictions are lifted, the incentive to fly will hopefully rise.

I just hope to see LGA and JFK begin to look more normal. Both airports (with the exception of Jetblue’s T5, are still feeling empty)
 
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TK787
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:47 pm

maps4ltd wrote:
if I had a choice for a trip on STL-PHX vs STL-LGA, I wouldn't do New York because I don't want to quarantine and/or get a test.

I just finished with my 10 day quarantine coming back to NYC and out of 10 days, I only got 3 times a text/email from the NY Sheriff checking on me :(
I fell like that I am the only crazy person that did not even go out to get a cup of espresso for 10 days, except on the 5th day I got a PCR test???? :(
 
Exeiowa
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 08, 2021 3:10 pm

So we can look forward to a last Hurrah! of COVID surge because of peoples lack of patience. I will be out there in a few months, but to give in now when you can see the end in site seems foolish to me.

So I can be topic compliant, talking to my boss this last week, once things open up, someone in my position (senior technical staff) will not be able to travel for business for cost reasons. Something I had previously done 2-4 times a year. So airlines might be waiting a bit longer for the custom to really come back.
 
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janders
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 08, 2021 8:27 pm

CDC says vaccination should not be an excuse for travel in new guidelines issued today.

Masking, social distancing, and avoidance of in-person public gatherings still need to be practiced.

https://skift.com/2021/03/08/health-off ... americans/
 
Scarebus34
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 08, 2021 8:44 pm

janders wrote:
CDC says vaccination should not be an excuse for travel in new guidelines issued today.

Masking, social distancing, and avoidance of in-person public gatherings still need to be practiced.

https://skift.com/2021/03/08/health-off ... americans/

Cool - people are increasingly ignoring these 'recommendations.'
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 08, 2021 8:57 pm

Scarebus34 wrote:
janders wrote:
CDC says vaccination should not be an excuse for travel in new guidelines issued today.

Masking, social distancing, and avoidance of in-person public gatherings still need to be practiced.

https://skift.com/2021/03/08/health-off ... americans/

Cool - people are increasingly ignoring these 'recommendations.'


Yeah this quote actually swayed people more the other way then intended. People are unfortunately losing confidence in the guidelines and with good reason. If you are immune and face no risk of being seriously sick, why shouldn’t you travel? TSA numbers will definitely be increasing soon.
 
mcogator
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 08, 2021 9:32 pm

MCO expecting more available seats in April than in April 2019...this is so very exciting!

https://orlandoairports.net/press/2021/03/05/orlando-international-airport-experiencing-spring-break-rebound/

If current projections remain solid, there will be more domestic airline seats available in April at MCO than there were in 2019 before the pandemic struck. Also, Hawaiian Airlines starts new, first-of-its-kind service from Orlando to Honolulu starting Saturday, March 13th.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 08, 2021 9:37 pm

Scarebus34 wrote:
janders wrote:
CDC says vaccination should not be an excuse for travel in new guidelines issued today.

Masking, social distancing, and avoidance of in-person public gatherings still need to be practiced.

https://skift.com/2021/03/08/health-off ... americans/

Cool - people are increasingly ignoring these 'recommendations.'


Using this logic, travel will never be "allowed" again

CDC lost credibility a while ago when they told people not to wear masks
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-c ... 2020-01-30
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 08, 2021 9:52 pm

Yeah well, tell that to what I saw first hand in DEN on Saturday.

FWIW, buddy of mine was in Vegas last week, said its still relatively dead.
Right now, its just not worth the price/cost for a watered-down Vegas experience.
When Las Vegas reopens to its former glory, that will ratchet-up air travel.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 08, 2021 11:55 pm

Telling people not to use masks was a poorly thought out advisory. The intended message was that masks, esp N95 were desperately needed for medical workers, and that it wasn't yet determined how much they helped in preventing disease transmission. It is an example of the difficulty of messaging, but not an excuse for trashing the CDC.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:05 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
If you are immune and face no risk of being seriously sick, why shouldn’t you travel?


Because you are not immune. Vaccination does not mean a stop to getting infected or a stop in the ability to pass it on to others.

Just last week a UK study showed how 9 vaccinated persons still got COVID - all mild or asymptomatic, but at least 4 other infections were traced back to 2 of these 9 vaccinated persons.

Being in public such as during the travel process poses an ongoing risk, especially when only a small portion of the U.S. population is vaccinated. (under 10% nationally have at least 1 dose).
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:59 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Telling people not to use masks was a poorly thought out advisory. The intended message was that masks, esp N95 were desperately needed for medical workers, and that it wasn't yet determined how much they helped in preventing disease transmission. It is an example of the difficulty of messaging, but not an excuse for trashing the CDC.


Objectively, the general public's trust in the CDC is at all-time lows. The Washington Post did a good write up on it.

In the last year, the % of Republicans who say they have a fair or great deal of trust in the CDC has dropped by 30%, Democrats has dropped by 16%. Their inconsistent messaging on masks, coupled with numerous other blunders, likely led to 1000s more people perishing due to COVID.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... er-attack/
https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-1 ... mber-2020/

The CDC's recommendations with regards to travel don't make sense. The former FDA commissioner put it well,“Public health guidance needs to take into account what people want to do.... we can’t be so far behind the aspirations of the public that the guidance itself gets ignored.”

CNN's Medical Analyst says the decision to continue to recommend against travel, "Defies common sense." If you're fully vaccinated & exposed to a positive case, you can skip quarantine...but you can't travel?
https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2021/ ... nr-vpx.cnn

The airlines, government, & independent groups have all released studies & reports outlining how safe air travel is. The CDC has released nothing, and has not released any benchmarks or guidelines for when they would say travel is safe, even for vaccinated people.
 
maps4ltd
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Mar 09, 2021 2:36 am

Never thought I'd say it, but the pandemic is making me miss days like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlppnZO ... ASAviation
 
williaminsd
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:10 pm

Ha... I knew any of this optimism wouldn't sit well with some people, but thank you for your "sad talk."

Meanwhile in the world of do-ers, throughput yesterday was 1,117,939, nearly 53% of last year's total, and about 45% of 2019. This is the fifth time in March the count has exceeded 1,000,000.

And the CDC has been spectacularly miserable with their "management" of this health crisis, why should the most recent guidelines be any different?

I'm off to PHX today with the full confidence that rejecting the bureaucratic clowns at the CDC doesn't endanger my health or anyone else's.

My flight is sold-out...
 
cledaybuck
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:35 pm

2nd2none wrote:
TSA numbers from previous week March 1 - March 7 2021 both days included are at 7,116,361 (50,3 %) compared to the same weekdays in 2020 14,157,300.

Sunday was the king of the week at 1,277,719 and 60.3 % of same day in 2020.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

You need to start comparing to 2019 now. Travel was starting to fall due to Covid at this time last year.
 
DoctorVenkman
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Mar 09, 2021 2:23 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
If you are immune and face no risk of being seriously sick, why shouldn’t you travel?


Because you are not immune. Vaccination does not mean a stop to getting infected or a stop in the ability to pass it on to others.

Just last week a UK study showed how 9 vaccinated persons still got COVID - all mild or asymptomatic, but at least 4 other infections were traced back to 2 of these 9 vaccinated persons.

Being in public such as during the travel process poses an ongoing risk, especially when only a small portion of the U.S. population is vaccinated. (under 10% nationally have at least 1 dose).


Unfortunately most people only care about themselves and not those around them. If some people aren't willing to wear masks, I highly doubt they would be willing to stay at home once vaccinated even if they are still a risk to other people.

And to address the hyperbole upthread - no one is saying we need to "stay home forever" - just another two months until the majority of adults have been vaccinated. Once everyone who wants a vaccine has been able to get one, open everything up. Starting to travel now is like cutting off your parachute 100ft from the ground. It's really not that hard to wait another two months at home to help save more lives.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Mar 09, 2021 2:45 pm

We are past the point of telling healthy people under the age of 60 to "stay home, save lives".
The fact is during the past year, healthy 60 year olds have been the majority of people that have been leaving their homes to go to work to school that make of the core of our workforce.
The healthy people under 60 represents the majority of COVID cases, but make up a very small minority of deaths. We are at an inflection point where most people over the age of 60 have access to a vaccine.

Thus, healthy 60 years, following reasonable masking and social distancing procedures, and avoiding contact with people over 60 or health compromised individuals for a period of time after traveling and/or being in close proximity of people in enclosed spaces unmasked is a more reasonable policy at this time.

The CDC policy is silly since it ignores reality, its a statement that really only is meant for the "lowest common denominator" crowd when the fact is that many people have been traveling smartly throughout this whole thing.

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