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williaminsd
Posts: 399
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 15, 2021 4:22 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
This was a holiday week which causes bookings to be muted, I think we should see a step up in overall bookings during the next few weeks.

Midwestindy wrote:
Airlines are likely going to update cash burn guidance next week, and I expect some good news.....


Well well well.......I told you all it was coming:

Industry: Florida bookings at 100% of 2019 levels

Delta: March cash burn at or close to break-even, bookings beyond 60 days are almost flat compared to 2019, bookings at high teens-low 20s for large corporates

United: UA March core cash burn positive

Alaska: Positive cash flow $50-100M in Q1

Jetblue: Coming in better than previous guidance

Southwest: May capacity is estimated at 80% of 2019 levels, Q1 cash burn coming in below guidance

American: AA bookings last week were only 20% below 2019
Image
https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com/st ... b3e645b506


Ha! Yes you did tell us this was coming and you took an incessant and almost shaming grief for it from the usual crowd of nay-sayers who are strangely (or not so strangely) absent from this tread now that the dam is bursting.

You never "cherry-picked" data, as some of the angry pack insisted. You were consistent and steadfast, treating both good news and bad with equal scrutiny.

To those for whom narrative is more important than facts, your posts we're just "happy talk" deserving of nothing but smug dismissal.

You never waivered in your calm presentation of data and the implications to aviation. Thank you for providing a beacon of sanity against the shrill darkness of the mob.

We still have a long way to go, but Love those cash burn numbers. Love that huge leap in future bookings as more Americans thoroughly reject the oppressive demands of alleged "leaders" and bureaucrats more concerned with controlling our lives than with improving them...
 
mcogator
Posts: 599
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:51 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 15, 2021 4:46 pm

More anecdotal data, but I'm trying to rent a car at lax for a week on Thursday, and doesn't seem like there are any cars available. Hertz website is not showing any cars for me, but when I use Kayak it shows Economy car starting at $70/day. The sixt app only shows 5 cars available, a Tacoma at $45/day, then a charger rt at $85/day, 4 series convertible at $91/day, and 2 different range rovers, at $122/day and $149/day. I ordered a new car then sold my car privately in 1 day at full asking December 28th, so I've been renting a car whenever I'm back in LA waiting on my new car. I've been paying roughly $15-$25/day for a full size car. This is nuts. Uber/lyft it is.
 
ethernal
Posts: 503
Joined: Mon May 06, 2019 12:09 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 15, 2021 4:51 pm

mcogator wrote:
More anecdotal data, but I'm trying to rent a car at lax for a week on Thursday, and doesn't seem like there are any cars available. Hertz website is not showing any cars for me, but when I use Kayak it shows Economy car starting at $70/day. The sixt app only shows 5 cars available, a Tacoma at $45/day, then a charger rt at $85/day, 4 series convertible at $91/day, and 2 different range rovers, at $122/day and $149/day. I ordered a new car then sold my car privately in 1 day at full asking December 28th, so I've been renting a car whenever I'm back in LA waiting on my new car. I've been paying roughly $15-$25/day for a full size car. This is nuts. Uber/lyft it is.


There is going to be a crazy whipsaw on certain things in the summer in terms of prices. Airlines, rental car companies, and to a much lesser extent hotels (through closures, albeit some temporary) have dramatically reduced available capacity. Domestic leisure is almost certainly going to overshoot 2019 this summer (even if aggregate numbers are down due to depressed international and business travel) and that is going to create weird pricing situations. After low prices for so long, there is going to be some sticker shock for many places.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8935
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 15, 2021 5:09 pm

To elaborate a bit more on the point above, its going to be an interesting summer for anything tourism/hospitality/travel-wise.

Staffing is going to be far and away the number of challenge toward any business related to the entire sector. Airlines, hotels, rental cars, restaurants, retail, attractions, etc. all have to rebuild their staff, some which are long gone into other opportunities, or not yet in a position to want to come back to work. Major complications still with getting H2 / seasonal international workers in that were employed in some of these businesses as well.

I forsee this crush on demand on resort towns that aren't staffed to full extent in a lot of businesses. That will most certainly impact prices on many things as well.
 
mcogator
Posts: 599
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:51 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 15, 2021 5:39 pm

ethernal wrote:
mcogator wrote:
More anecdotal data, but I'm trying to rent a car at lax for a week on Thursday, and doesn't seem like there are any cars available. Hertz website is not showing any cars for me, but when I use Kayak it shows Economy car starting at $70/day. The sixt app only shows 5 cars available, a Tacoma at $45/day, then a charger rt at $85/day, 4 series convertible at $91/day, and 2 different range rovers, at $122/day and $149/day. I ordered a new car then sold my car privately in 1 day at full asking December 28th, so I've been renting a car whenever I'm back in LA waiting on my new car. I've been paying roughly $15-$25/day for a full size car. This is nuts. Uber/lyft it is.


There is going to be a crazy whipsaw on certain things in the summer in terms of prices. Airlines, rental car companies, and to a much lesser extent hotels (through closures, albeit some temporary) have dramatically reduced available capacity. Domestic leisure is almost certainly going to overshoot 2019 this summer (even if aggregate numbers are down due to depressed international and business travel) and that is going to create weird pricing situations. After low prices for so long, there is going to be some sticker shock for many places.

Not only those industries, but same with the restaurant industry in LA. My gf manages a large, popular restaurant and they are blowing away their numbers from the summer. They're about 80% of 2019 numbers, and they still have the bar closed and a large indoor seating area. She thinks they will be crushing 2019 numbers once they have the indoor setup open since as of today indoor dining is allowed. They have a serious staff shortage as well, and are on a hiring frenzy. Their pre-outdoor dining ban staff was around 60, and now it's around 40. They need to go up to around 100 full/part time staff to handle all of their business now that indoor dining can resume.
 
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Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 6292
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 15, 2021 11:47 pm

williaminsd wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
This was a holiday week which causes bookings to be muted, I think we should see a step up in overall bookings during the next few weeks.

Midwestindy wrote:
Airlines are likely going to update cash burn guidance next week, and I expect some good news.....


Well well well.......I told you all it was coming:

Industry: Florida bookings at 100% of 2019 levels

Delta: March cash burn at or close to break-even, bookings beyond 60 days are almost flat compared to 2019, bookings at high teens-low 20s for large corporates

United: UA March core cash burn positive

Alaska: Positive cash flow $50-100M in Q1

Jetblue: Coming in better than previous guidance

Southwest: May capacity is estimated at 80% of 2019 levels, Q1 cash burn coming in below guidance

American: AA bookings last week were only 20% below 2019
Image
https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com/st ... b3e645b506


Ha! Yes you did tell us this was coming and you took an incessant and almost shaming grief for it from the usual crowd of nay-sayers who are strangely (or not so strangely) absent from this tread now that the dam is bursting.

You never "cherry-picked" data, as some of the angry pack insisted. You were consistent and steadfast, treating both good news and bad with equal scrutiny.

To those for whom narrative is more important than facts, your posts we're just "happy talk" deserving of nothing but smug dismissal.

You never waivered in your calm presentation of data and the implications to aviation. Thank you for providing a beacon of sanity against the shrill darkness of the mob.

We still have a long way to go, but Love those cash burn numbers. Love that huge leap in future bookings as more Americans thoroughly reject the oppressive demands of alleged "leaders" and bureaucrats more concerned with controlling our lives than with improving them...


:thumbsup: :thumbsup:

mcogator wrote:
More anecdotal data, but I'm trying to rent a car at lax for a week on Thursday, and doesn't seem like there are any cars available. Hertz website is not showing any cars for me, but when I use Kayak it shows Economy car starting at $70/day. The sixt app only shows 5 cars available, a Tacoma at $45/day, then a charger rt at $85/day, 4 series convertible at $91/day, and 2 different range rovers, at $122/day and $149/day. I ordered a new car then sold my car privately in 1 day at full asking December 28th, so I've been renting a car whenever I'm back in LA waiting on my new car. I've been paying roughly $15-$25/day for a full size car. This is nuts. Uber/lyft it is.


Yeah...I was at LAX most recently in November/December, and I booked my rental car(Avis) a month+ in advance. The rental car lot was crazy empty.

I try to book rental cars way in advance, given such little inventory recently & because you can end up spending a ton on Uber/lyft in places like LA and Florida.

ethernal wrote:
mcogator wrote:
More anecdotal data, but I'm trying to rent a car at lax for a week on Thursday, and doesn't seem like there are any cars available. Hertz website is not showing any cars for me, but when I use Kayak it shows Economy car starting at $70/day. The sixt app only shows 5 cars available, a Tacoma at $45/day, then a charger rt at $85/day, 4 series convertible at $91/day, and 2 different range rovers, at $122/day and $149/day. I ordered a new car then sold my car privately in 1 day at full asking December 28th, so I've been renting a car whenever I'm back in LA waiting on my new car. I've been paying roughly $15-$25/day for a full size car. This is nuts. Uber/lyft it is.


There is going to be a crazy whipsaw on certain things in the summer in terms of prices. Airlines, rental car companies, and to a much lesser extent hotels (through closures, albeit some temporary) have dramatically reduced available capacity. Domestic leisure is almost certainly going to overshoot 2019 this summer (even if aggregate numbers are down due to depressed international and business travel) and that is going to create weird pricing situations. After low prices for so long, there is going to be some sticker shock for many places.


PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
To elaborate a bit more on the point above, its going to be an interesting summer for anything tourism/hospitality/travel-wise.


Bank of America reported domestic leisure bookings were only down ~20% last week, imagine what levels they will be at when everyone who wants a vaccine can get one & the entire country is open......
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/american ... 23833.html

This is going to get interesting....
 
tphuang
Posts: 6637
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Mar 16, 2021 1:04 am

Midwestindy wrote:

Bank of America reported domestic leisure bookings were only down ~20% last week, imagine what levels they will be at when everyone who wants a vaccine can get one & the entire country is open......
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/american ... 23833.html

This is going to get interesting....


Is that number of bookings or booking revenue? Have to think this type of statistics help ULCCs that focus on domestic stuff the most: Which means G4.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8935
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:27 am

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... ex9901.htm

Delta Investor Update from today and the JP Morgan conference:

- MTD March daily net sales improved 30% from February
- Domestic demand improving across the booking curve; booking more than 60 days out represent 32% of new bookings, only down 3 points from 2019 versus down 10 points in Jan
- Revenue trends at March are at expectations, while Jan & Feb were below expectations
- Q1 losses pre-tax expected to be approaching $3B loss
- Anticipated to repay $1.5 B loan against slots, gates, routes in Q1
- Q2 expects to acquire new aircraft with cash and contribute $1B to pension plan
- Q1 average cash daily cash burn to be $12-14 M /day
 
Runway28L
Posts: 2130
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:35 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:09 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Industry: Florida bookings at 100% of 2019 levels

Delta: March cash burn at or close to break-even, bookings beyond 60 days are almost flat compared to 2019, bookings at high teens-low 20s for large corporates

United: UA March core cash burn positive

Alaska: Positive cash flow $50-100M in Q1

Jetblue: Coming in better than previous guidance

Southwest: May capacity is estimated at 80% of 2019 levels, Q1 cash burn coming in below guidance

American: AA bookings last week were only 20% below 2019

Any links to this information, if possible? Thanks in advance.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6637
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:16 pm

JetBlue revenue actually almost doubled from coming into March vs what they are now forecasting for March. $6 million a day up to $10 to $12 a day (as a point of comparison, they got about $22 million a day of booking pre-COVID). I'm assuming other LCCs are seeing similar stories for March.
 
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Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 6292
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Mar 16, 2021 4:36 pm

Runway28L wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Industry: Florida bookings at 100% of 2019 levels

Delta: March cash burn at or close to break-even, bookings beyond 60 days are almost flat compared to 2019, bookings at high teens-low 20s for large corporates

United: UA March core cash burn positive

Alaska: Positive cash flow $50-100M in Q1

Jetblue: Coming in better than previous guidance

Southwest: May capacity is estimated at 80% of 2019 levels, Q1 cash burn coming in below guidance

American: AA bookings last week were only 20% below 2019

Any links to this information, if possible? Thanks in advance.


DL:
-" At Delta, we expect in the month of March to be at or pretty darn close to breakeven for the month of March cash burn."
-"So cash burn for the month of March, because of the booking improvements that we've seen over the course of the last few weeks, it is going to come in pretty close to zero"
-"The one thing that was consistent throughout the entire pandemic was the compression of the booking window were inside of 14 and inside of six days, where most of your bookings resided. And really in the past six weeks, we've seen that move out, so that bookings that are beyond 60 days are almost flat to 2019 levels"
https://seekingalpha.com/article/441405 ... transcript

UA:
-"Florida and the Caribbean are almost back to 100%"
-"United expects our core cash burn to be positive in March. And assuming the current bookings trajectory continues, we'd also expect core cash burn to be positive going forward."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/441405 ... ndustrials

AS:
https://investor.alaskaair.com/static-f ... 1f9de424fe

B6:
http://otp.investis.com/generic/sec/sec ... 3&Type=PDF

WN:
https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/ ... F&hasPdf=1

AA: Already linked above

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Bank of America reported domestic leisure bookings were only down ~20% last week, imagine what levels they will be at when everyone who wants a vaccine can get one & the entire country is open......
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/american ... 23833.html

This is going to get interesting....


Is that number of bookings or booking revenue? Have to think this type of statistics help ULCCs that focus on domestic stuff the most: Which means G4.


# of bookings

1. More searches ---> 2. More bookings -----> 3. Better load factors -----> 4. Pricing pressure -----> 5. Return to normal

This is the recovery path, Don Casey explained it very well yesterday. Once bookings/loads are where they need to be, then yield will be the concern.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/441410 ... ndustrials
 
ethernal
Posts: 503
Joined: Mon May 06, 2019 12:09 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:20 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Runway28L wrote:
Is that number of bookings or booking revenue? Have to think this type of statistics help ULCCs that focus on domestic stuff the most: Which means G4.


# of bookings

1. More searches ---> 2. More bookings -----> 3. Better load factors -----> 4. Pricing pressure -----> 5. Return to normal

This is the recovery path, Don Casey explained it very well yesterday. Once bookings/loads are where they need to be, then yield will be the concern.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/441410 ... ndustrials


I know this is incredibly anecdotal, but holy cow, airfares have absolutely shot up a *lot* over the past two weeks from my point of sale in Atlanta - both international and short-haul international leisure (Caribbean/Mexico). I don't think it is at all coincidental - my state has opened up vaccines to pretty much everyone at this point (>85% of the adult population is eligible), so I believe people are booking trips with the knowledge they'll be vaccinated.

The wave has definitely started (again, at least for domestic / short haul international leisure).
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5696
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Mar 17, 2021 1:25 am

ethernal wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Runway28L wrote:
Is that number of bookings or booking revenue? Have to think this type of statistics help ULCCs that focus on domestic stuff the most: Which means G4.


# of bookings

1. More searches ---> 2. More bookings -----> 3. Better load factors -----> 4. Pricing pressure -----> 5. Return to normal

This is the recovery path, Don Casey explained it very well yesterday. Once bookings/loads are where they need to be, then yield will be the concern.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/441410 ... ndustrials


I know this is incredibly anecdotal, but holy cow, airfares have absolutely shot up a *lot* over the past two weeks from my point of sale in Atlanta - both international and short-haul international leisure (Caribbean/Mexico). I don't think it is at all coincidental - my state has opened up vaccines to pretty much everyone at this point (>85% of the adult population is eligible), so I believe people are booking trips with the knowledge they'll be vaccinated.

The wave has definitely started (again, at least for domestic / short haul international leisure).

I was having problem booking companion travel on delta over the weekend. I think they are closing out a lot of the low buckets.
 
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Midwestindy
Topic Author
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:56 pm

Rapid increase in Summer bookings (91+ days)
Image
Image
https://datastudio.google.com/reporting ... page/bYtIB

Islands travel continues to rapidly increase
Image
https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

Load Factors still in 60s range even with added capacity
Image
https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

TATL travel is still declining (Not surprising)
Image
https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#
 
RicFlyer
Posts: 87
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2018 12:15 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Mar 17, 2021 4:28 pm

The last six days of TSA checkpoint numbers have been over 1 million!! The average is 1,248.000 a day! Tomorrow will be over 1,000,000 too! As shown by @midwestindy above travel is increasing fast.
 
keithvh2001
Posts: 53
Joined: Sat Jun 08, 2019 7:21 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Mar 17, 2021 8:25 pm

RicFlyer wrote:
The last six days of TSA checkpoint numbers have been over 1 million!! The average is 1,248.000 a day! Tomorrow will be over 1,000,000 too! As shown by @midwestindy above travel is increasing fast.


I am not ready to fully predict it. I wouldn't bet money on it.

But it does seem possible that our last 6 digit day (which would be 3/10/2021, at 955,177) is in the rear-view mirror. Clearing 1,000,000 on Tuesday (and clearing it by 8.8%) was pretty impressive.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5696
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Mar 17, 2021 9:48 pm

keithvh2001 wrote:
RicFlyer wrote:
The last six days of TSA checkpoint numbers have been over 1 million!! The average is 1,248.000 a day! Tomorrow will be over 1,000,000 too! As shown by @midwestindy above travel is increasing fast.


I am not ready to fully predict it. I wouldn't bet money on it.

But it does seem possible that our last 6 digit day (which would be 3/10/2021, at 955,177) is in the rear-view mirror. Clearing 1,000,000 on Tuesday (and clearing it by 8.8%) was pretty impressive.

Probably for the summer. Not sure about after school starts again if business is still being weird. Could see a small dip in may between spring and summer break. But it looks good. Most of the spring breaks haven’t even started.
 
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2nd2none
Posts: 136
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:05 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Mar 18, 2021 12:13 pm

TSA numbers from yesterday March 17 2021, was for the first time since the start of the Covid 19 Pandemic higher than in 2020 at 1,140,624 against 953,699 + 19.6% but at 52.4 % of 2019 (2,177,929)
 
RicFlyer
Posts: 87
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2018 12:15 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Mar 18, 2021 12:30 pm

In the last 21 days 15 days have been over 1 million. And for the first time March 8-14, 2020 we have had 7 consecutive days over 1 million!! Lets see where this is going!
 
ethernal
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:44 pm

32andBelow wrote:
keithvh2001 wrote:
RicFlyer wrote:
The last six days of TSA checkpoint numbers have been over 1 million!! The average is 1,248.000 a day! Tomorrow will be over 1,000,000 too! As shown by @midwestindy above travel is increasing fast.


I am not ready to fully predict it. I wouldn't bet money on it.

But it does seem possible that our last 6 digit day (which would be 3/10/2021, at 955,177) is in the rear-view mirror. Clearing 1,000,000 on Tuesday (and clearing it by 8.8%) was pretty impressive.

Probably for the summer. Not sure about after school starts again if business is still being weird. Could see a small dip in may between spring and summer break. But it looks good. Most of the spring breaks haven’t even started.


I'm in the "we're over 1M for good" camp barring something in the next week or two that goes under. There is no way that Fall travel goes under 1M. By then things will be humming, even in business (albeit still depressed). The vaccines are *the* difference here, and they continue to accelerate and reach more and more people. 22% of the US population has received at least one vaccine dose - which doesn't sound like a lot - but that is highly biased to groups more likely to travel.

22% of the overall population is 30% of the adult population, and high income, educated, urban households are the ones going out of their way to get the vaccine - and most likely to travel. Lower income, lower education, and rural households (admittedly all co-correlated) are not getting the vaccine as quickly, and they are the least likely to travel. I don't have an analysis to point to, but if I had to guess, 50% of adult "frequent / likely travelers" have probably received their first dose or have a near-term appointment for a first dose scheduled at this point. Add in another 5-10% that had confirmed COVID cases already and you've got a huge portion of the population that are feeling confident enough to going on or planning trips (I know I am).

We're over the hump barring something terrible happening (e.g. variant that completely ignores existing prior case and vaccine immunity - but that is unlikely and shouldn't be considered a base case for any forward-looking view). There will continue to be questions about the long term impact to business travel but travel for leisure and VFR is permanently back on the menu, at least domestic and short-haul international.
 
32andBelow
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Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Mar 18, 2021 2:55 pm

ethernal wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
keithvh2001 wrote:

I am not ready to fully predict it. I wouldn't bet money on it.

But it does seem possible that our last 6 digit day (which would be 3/10/2021, at 955,177) is in the rear-view mirror. Clearing 1,000,000 on Tuesday (and clearing it by 8.8%) was pretty impressive.

Probably for the summer. Not sure about after school starts again if business is still being weird. Could see a small dip in may between spring and summer break. But it looks good. Most of the spring breaks haven’t even started.


I'm in the "we're over 1M for good" camp barring something in the next week or two that goes under. There is no way that Fall travel goes under 1M. By then things will be humming, even in business (albeit still depressed). The vaccines are *the* difference here, and they continue to accelerate and reach more and more people. 22% of the US population has received at least one vaccine dose - which doesn't sound like a lot - but that is highly biased to groups more likely to travel.

22% of the overall population is 30% of the adult population, and high income, educated, urban households are the ones going out of their way to get the vaccine - and most likely to travel. Lower income, lower education, and rural households (admittedly all co-correlated) are not getting the vaccine as quickly, and they are the least likely to travel. I don't have an analysis to point to, but if I had to guess, 50% of adult "frequent / likely travelers" have probably received their first dose or have a near-term appointment for a first dose scheduled at this point. Add in another 5-10% that had confirmed COVID cases already and you've got a huge portion of the population that are feeling confident enough to going on or planning trips (I know I am).

We're over the hump barring something terrible happening (e.g. variant that completely ignores existing prior case and vaccine immunity - but that is unlikely and shouldn't be considered a base case for any forward-looking view). There will continue to be questions about the long term impact to business travel but travel for leisure and VFR is permanently back on the menu, at least domestic and short-haul international.

A lot of my friends are vaccinated where I live. But my friends back in California can’t get it yet. When the young people in the major metros can get it like LA and NYC it will help a lot.
 
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Midwestindy
Topic Author
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Mar 18, 2021 4:41 pm

Best booking day of the pandemic yesterday, mostly fueled by advanced bookings. This should mean airlines begin to update their schedules farther in advance:

Image
Image
https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/repor ... page/T4qIB

Domestic traffic to Hawaii back to 70% of 2019
Image
https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/visitor/daily- ... er-counts/

Hotel occupancy at highest levels of pandemic last week
Image
https://str.com/press-release/str-us-ho ... g-13-march
 
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Midwestindy
Topic Author
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Mar 19, 2021 11:38 am

2nd2none wrote:
TSA numbers from yesterday March 17 2021, was for the first time since the start of the Covid 19 Pandemic higher than in 2020 at 1,140,624 against 953,699 + 19.6% but at 52.4 % of 2019 (2,177,929)


As I mentioned before the 2,177,929 number is incorrect, the TSA 2019 numbers are one day off, you should compare to 2,320,885

Regardless, yesterday was another pandemic high of 1,407,233, 56% of 2,513,231.
 
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2nd2none
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Mar 19, 2021 11:57 am

TSA numbers March 18 2021 1,407,233 and 80.5 % above the 2020 numbers at 779,631.
 
chrisair
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Mar 19, 2021 2:52 pm

Just did my first trip since March of last year. It's busy out there boys and girls.

Will be interesting to see how it is after the spring break crowds subside. Friends at AS said the next three weeks are "extremely busy" compared to before, but "nowhere near 2019."

Good to get back in the air even if the person across from me was a "I dOn'T WeAR a MaSk aNd YoU cAn'T mAKe Me!" and sat there taking small sips for three hours.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Mar 19, 2021 5:55 pm

The next 3 weeks are really the peak of spring break travel, at least for those tied to K-12 & college related break schedules. Also the way Easter falls this year, on April 4th, really will have a lot of spring break and holiday related travel on the weeks before and after.

Its not going to let up after that, but the traffic and travel patterns will shift at bit more after the second week of April. Right now so much is on beach & sun markets, with the ski traffic niche too (which wraps up pretty much in another 2 weeks). After that as more of the country warms up, you will see more leisure markets come on-line, more VFR, and more east-west travel.

Although I think Florida "spring break" is going to run pretty strong all the way to June this year. Weather is inconsistent and still pretty cool in the Upper Midwest and Northeast pretty much into id/late May.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Mar 19, 2021 6:01 pm

1.4 today and spring break isn’t really peaked yet. 2M by Memorial Day IMO But I wonder if we’ll temporarily hit it sooner. Today is going to be a big day.
 
Osubuckeyes
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Mar 19, 2021 7:46 pm

32andBelow wrote:
1.4 today and spring break isn’t really peaked yet. 2M by Memorial Day IMO But I wonder if we’ll temporarily hit it sooner. Today is going to be a big day.


Definitely trending in that direction. Will be interesting to see if or how fast passenger growth exceeds capacity. Of course May 1 DL can add back 30%+ capacity to the system by not extending middle seat blocking.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Mar 19, 2021 9:28 pm

Osubuckeyes wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
1.4 today and spring break isn’t really peaked yet. 2M by Memorial Day IMO But I wonder if we’ll temporarily hit it sooner. Today is going to be a big day.


Definitely trending in that direction. Will be interesting to see if or how fast passenger growth exceeds capacity. Of course May 1 DL can add back 30%+ capacity to the system by not extending middle seat blocking.

I don’t think you’ll see that. Airlines are just going to add flights. Plus the US3 can deploy parked international equipment on big routes. American has already put a 787 on anc this summer for example.
 
joeblow10
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Mar 19, 2021 9:52 pm

32andBelow wrote:
1.4 today and spring break isn’t really peaked yet. 2M by Memorial Day IMO But I wonder if we’ll temporarily hit it sooner. Today is going to be a big day.


Highly doubt we reach the 2M threshold that quickly. That would involve business travelers coming back in droves... simply isn’t going to happen in 2021. Spring break is peak leisure season... 90% of who is out there right now are leisure travelers. we’ll probably hover around the 1.5-1.7M mark most of the summer if the pandemic subsides with vaccines. Maybe 2M breaks once or twice during the peak peak days around July 4th, etc.
 
ethernal
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:01 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
1.4 today and spring break isn’t really peaked yet. 2M by Memorial Day IMO But I wonder if we’ll temporarily hit it sooner. Today is going to be a big day.


Highly doubt we reach the 2M threshold that quickly. That would involve business travelers coming back in droves... simply isn’t going to happen in 2021. Spring break is peak leisure season... 90% of who is out there right now are leisure travelers. we’ll probably hover around the 1.5-1.7M mark most of the summer if the pandemic subsides with vaccines. Maybe 2M breaks once or twice during the peak peak days around July 4th, etc.


There will be days that exceed 2M but agree that 2M may not come back when looking at a 7 day moving average.

The rise in forward demand over the past few weeks has been crazy and I don't see it subsiding. Spring Break will not be peak leisure this year. Many are still not traveling because of COVID. That won't be the case by Memorial Day.

The national consensus is rapidly shifting to "the end is near, and I'm going to start planning for it."
Last edited by ethernal on Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:04 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
1.4 today and spring break isn’t really peaked yet. 2M by Memorial Day IMO But I wonder if we’ll temporarily hit it sooner. Today is going to be a big day.


Highly doubt we reach the 2M threshold that quickly. That would involve business travelers coming back in droves... simply isn’t going to happen in 2021. Spring break is peak leisure season... 90% of who is out there right now are leisure travelers. we’ll probably hover around the 1.5-1.7M mark most of the summer if the pandemic subsides with vaccines. Maybe 2M breaks once or twice during the peak peak days around July 4th, etc.


If we are only at 1.5M during the summer, and we are at 1.4M now (probably close to 1.5M today), we'll be in big trouble.

Business travelers only make up ~12% of passengers, business travel could be at 0% in Summer 2021 for all that it mattered, and travel would still be well above 1.5M in the summer.

If you were talking about revenue that would be different...

I think people are also forgetting that tons of markets haven't seen capacity added back yet. Capacity to the northeast is still down 60%+ in March

1.5M is way too low of an estimate IMO
 
joeblow10
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:12 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
1.4 today and spring break isn’t really peaked yet. 2M by Memorial Day IMO But I wonder if we’ll temporarily hit it sooner. Today is going to be a big day.


Highly doubt we reach the 2M threshold that quickly. That would involve business travelers coming back in droves... simply isn’t going to happen in 2021. Spring break is peak leisure season... 90% of who is out there right now are leisure travelers. we’ll probably hover around the 1.5-1.7M mark most of the summer if the pandemic subsides with vaccines. Maybe 2M breaks once or twice during the peak peak days around July 4th, etc.


If we are only at 1.5M during the summer, and we are at 1.4M now (probably close to 1.5M today), we'll be in big trouble.

Business travelers only make up ~12% of passengers, business travel could be at 0% in Summer 2021 for all that it mattered, and travel would still be well above 1.5M in the summer.

If you were talking about revenue that would be different...

I think people are also forgetting that tons of markets haven't seen capacity added back yet. Capacity to the northeast is still down 60%+ in March

1.5M is way too low of an estimate IMO


I guess I misphrased - I would guess a 1.5-1.7M running average across the summer. So on Fridays you may approach 2M (I still doubt you exceed it very often, except around holidays), where Tu/We may only see 1.0-1.2M

This week is probably the second busiest spring break week as many schools are getting out next week. The one after should be slightly busier. But I think we see a slight lull between then and end of May
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:27 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:

Highly doubt we reach the 2M threshold that quickly. That would involve business travelers coming back in droves... simply isn’t going to happen in 2021. Spring break is peak leisure season... 90% of who is out there right now are leisure travelers. we’ll probably hover around the 1.5-1.7M mark most of the summer if the pandemic subsides with vaccines. Maybe 2M breaks once or twice during the peak peak days around July 4th, etc.


If we are only at 1.5M during the summer, and we are at 1.4M now (probably close to 1.5M today), we'll be in big trouble.

Business travelers only make up ~12% of passengers, business travel could be at 0% in Summer 2021 for all that it mattered, and travel would still be well above 1.5M in the summer.

If you were talking about revenue that would be different...

I think people are also forgetting that tons of markets haven't seen capacity added back yet. Capacity to the northeast is still down 60%+ in March

1.5M is way too low of an estimate IMO


I guess I misphrased - I would guess a 1.5-1.7M running average across the summer. So on Fridays you may approach 2M (I still doubt you exceed it very often, except around holidays), where Tu/We may only see 1.0-1.2M

This week is probably the second busiest spring break week as many schools are getting out next week. The one after should be slightly busier. But I think we see a slight lull between then and end of May


While I don't necessarily disagree that there *could* be a lull in later April & early May, a similar argument was made for September 2020 & it ended up relatively strong.

If you are using 2019 as a baseline, then these estimates are extremely conservative:

June 2019 daily average was 2.55M, the avg Tuesday was 2.4M. We already were nearly 1.1M on last Tuesday, hard to see it falling back down to 1M during peak season.

The gap in Tuesday/Wednesday to Friday/Sunday travel is traditionally smaller during the summer, since so many people are off work/school that they are more able to travel any day of the week.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Mar 20, 2021 1:57 am

I wonder if lack of business travel will help leisure even more? Like if you don’t have to fly for work all the time a vacation probably seems a lot more fun. Especially if you are working from home.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Mar 20, 2021 2:12 am

I think all of the above to an extent, but it’s really hard to measure or predict how much substitutal travel demand there really is out there.

There is a theoricial upper bound for summer 2021 with a fraction of normal business travel and very limited international travel. Summer actually has some of the least
Contribution of business travel, particularly July and August.
There is a sizable amount of travel in May through October deriven by Europe based O&D to the US. How much of that will be offset by pent up leisure demand is unknown.

March and Early April is historically heavily dominated by spring break and sun/beach market travel.

We aren’t going backwards from here at all. I do think the projections of 70% of passengers across summer 2021 is well within play at this time.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Mar 20, 2021 2:43 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I think all of the above to an extent, but it’s really hard to measure or predict how much substitutal travel demand there really is out there.

There is a theoricial upper bound for summer 2021 with a fraction of normal business travel and very limited international travel. Summer actually has some of the least
Contribution of business travel, particularly July and August.
There is a sizable amount of travel in May through October deriven by Europe based O&D to the US. How much of that will be offset by pent up leisure demand is unknown.

March and Early April is historically heavily dominated by spring break and sun/beach market travel.

We aren’t going backwards from here at all. I do think the projections of 70% of passengers across summer 2021 is well within play at this time.

If really like to see domestic broken out so we can see what’s going on better
 
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LAXintl
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Mar 20, 2021 4:17 am

Hold those trips America. :redflag:

7-day average COVID case counts up in 24 states. More virulent UK variant becoming more prevalent.

Growing worry US might see another wave headed into summer as Europe is starting to experience now.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-ha ... 1616176427

#StayHomeStaySafe

Image
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Mar 20, 2021 4:49 am

LAXintl wrote:
Hold those trips America. :redflag:

7-day average COVID case counts up in 24 states. More virulent UK variant becoming more prevalent.

Growing worry US might see another wave headed into summer as Europe is starting to experience now.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-ha ... 1616176427

#StayHomeStaySafe

Image

High risk are vaccinated. Non issue.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Mar 20, 2021 10:33 am

32andBelow wrote:
High risk are vaccinated. Non issue.


Exactly. Michigan stands out with a sharp increase, but they also have not expanded eligibility to those under the age of 50 yet. Those over the age of 65 or basically the highest risk group are 63% vaccinated now. Fortunately, Michigan will be joining most other states and allowing vaccinations for those 16 and older with pre-existing health issues starting on Monday. It's safe to hop on a plane and visit the elderly grandparents or parents in Michigan. https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98178_103214-547150--,00.html

There are 42 hospitals in Michigan with zero COVID-19 patients right now, and that is the goal. https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98159-523641--,00.html

Michigan is actually behind the national average for vaccinations of those 65+. That rate stands at 67.1% nationwide as of yesterday. The total adult population is nearing 30% vaccinated. Absolutely amazing numbers. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

There is going to be a ton of VFR traffic over the coming weeks, and that includes my spouse and I. We have money in the bank and a ridiculous amount of unused leave to burn. Time to go visit the parents now that they are vaccinated. We've also booked a trip in June and another in late July/early August. All domestic at this point given the uncertainty with international travel restrictions.
 
SRQLOT
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Mar 20, 2021 11:30 am

A lot of people will want to use up their airline credits ASAP. Before they expire or get forgotten about, I know I have. I did one trip in February have another in a week and at beginning of May. Overall I have used credits or partial credits for about 7 trips! I will still have one more credit to use up. With the lower ticket prices the credits definitely went further in flying around past 12 months!!
 
IdlewildJFK
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Mar 20, 2021 12:29 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Hold those trips America. :redflag:

7-day average COVID case counts up in 24 states. More virulent UK variant becoming more prevalent.

Growing worry US might see another wave headed into summer as Europe is starting to experience now.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-ha ... 1616176427

#StayHomeStaySafe

Image


There is no way to put the genie back in the bottle at this point. Those with a vaccine are not going to stay home. That number goes up 2.5 million per day. Even the most strict governors are tripping over themselves to relax their restrictions more and more. I feel the country has hit a critical mass on reopening and there won’t be much appetite to slow it down, let alone move backwards.

Right or wrong, I feel this is where the country is at.
 
baje427
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Mar 20, 2021 1:12 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Hold those trips America. :redflag:

7-day average COVID case counts up in 24 states. More virulent UK variant becoming more prevalent.

Growing worry US might see another wave headed into summer as Europe is starting to experience now.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-ha ... 1616176427

#StayHomeStaySafe

Image

I too was wondering about this I know there is a lot of enthusiasm/optimism but I think it's too much too soon but it's too late at this point. Its going to be interesting to see how this all plays out in the next few weeks. The difference between the EU and US is the US vaccination roll out has gone significantly better but it's still not to the point to reach herd immunity.
 
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UPlog
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Mar 20, 2021 2:48 pm

Personally, I worry watching TSA counts rise and seemingly careless rush somehow normalizes life be it travel, reopen theme parks, dine indoors etc.

We are still very much in the midst of a pandemic that is far from being downgraded to an even epidemic, let alone an outbreak to which some Asian nations have managed to reduce the virus to.

We have come so far, but yet again risk everything by throwing caution to the wind by insisting on snapping back sooner and potentially dragging things out further yet again.

Yes I work in the industry, but frankly, travel is the last priority in my book, and wish more would follow be wllling to sit out 2021 and let the world manage to wrestle control of this medical emergency first before insisting on having a beach holiday.
 
CIDFlyer
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Mar 20, 2021 3:05 pm

Just took My first trip in a year down to Tampa and all four legs of my trip were full planes (CID-CLT and CLT-TPA and Vice versa). CLT was as packed as ever However there did seem to be a distinct valley that last for 30-60 minutes before the next bank of planes came in. But all in all it felt “normal” and Just as busy as I’ve ever seen it there.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Mar 20, 2021 3:50 pm

UPlog wrote:
Personally, I worry watching TSA counts rise and seemingly careless rush somehow normalizes life be it travel, reopen theme parks, dine indoors etc.

We are still very much in the midst of a pandemic that is far from being downgraded to an even epidemic, let alone an outbreak to which some Asian nations have managed to reduce the virus to.

We have come so far, but yet again risk everything by throwing caution to the wind by insisting on snapping back sooner and potentially dragging things out further yet again.

Yes I work in the industry, but frankly, travel is the last priority in my book, and wish more would follow be wllling to sit out 2021 and let the world manage to wrestle control of this medical emergency first before insisting on having a beach holiday.

There is absolutely no need for vaccinated people to sit anything out.
 
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mercure1
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Mar 20, 2021 4:31 pm

32andBelow wrote:
There is absolutely no need for vaccinated people to sit anything out.


:old:

Except vaccinated persons still can get Covid and also transmitted to others and be asymptomatic carriers.

The transmission chain is not broken, especially when the majority of the population is still months away from being fully vaccinated.

Crowding into airports, planes, and venues is exactly what the virus needs to keep active and infecting.
 
sevenheavy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Mar 20, 2021 6:02 pm

mercure1 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
There is absolutely no need for vaccinated people to sit anything out.


:old:

Except vaccinated persons still can get Covid and also transmitted to others and be asymptomatic carriers.

The transmission chain is not broken, especially when the majority of the population is still months away from being fully vaccinated.

Crowding into airports, planes, and venues is exactly what the virus needs to keep active and infecting.


There’s mounting evidence to suggest that vaccines cut transmission and asymptomatic cases significantly. This is just one and there are more out of Israel in particular.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-two ... s-12243898

This study acknowledges that they’ve actually lowballed their estimates due to likely impact of other external factors.
 
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janders
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Mar 20, 2021 9:43 pm

sevenheavy wrote:

There’s mounting evidence to suggest that vaccines cut transmission and asymptomatic cases significantly. This is just one and there are more out of Israel in particular.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-two ... s-12243898

This study acknowledges that they’ve actually lowballed their estimates due to likely impact of other external factors.


Vaccines indeed help reduce transmissions, but as was discussed in the non-Av COVID thread, there have been growing instances such as the case in the UK where they confirmed a cluster of 8 vaccinated folks getting the virus (all thankfully mild or asymptomatic), but at least two of them subsequently passed on the virus to four others.

So its a fallacy to believe being vaccinated makes one impervious to getting COVID, nor that it eliminates the ability to pass it on.

With still only a modest percentage of Americans fully vaccinated, the risk remains high of ongoing community transmission, and the rush to travel and congregate certainly raises chances of another wave.

Frankly, I am kissing 2021 good-bye as many large companies are doing also, and will wait for 2022 when hopefully do have much better control of the virus, and have a clearer path to reopening safely.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Mar 20, 2021 9:53 pm

janders wrote:
sevenheavy wrote:

There’s mounting evidence to suggest that vaccines cut transmission and asymptomatic cases significantly. This is just one and there are more out of Israel in particular.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-two ... s-12243898

This study acknowledges that they’ve actually lowballed their estimates due to likely impact of other external factors.


Vaccines indeed help reduce transmissions, but as was discussed in the non-Av COVID thread, there have been growing instances such as the case in the UK where they confirmed a cluster of 8 vaccinated folks getting the virus (all thankfully mild or asymptomatic), but at least two of them subsequently passed on the virus to four others.

So its a fallacy to believe being vaccinated makes one impervious to getting COVID, nor that it eliminates the ability to pass it on.

With still only a modest percentage of Americans fully vaccinated, the risk remains high of ongoing community transmission, and the rush to travel and congregate certainly raises chances of another wave.

Frankly, I am kissing 2021 good-bye as many large companies are doing also, and will wait for 2022 when hopefully do have much better control of the virus, and have a clearer path to reopening safely.

Reopening is happening q2 wether your company is coming or not

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