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msy2351
Posts: 13
Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2020 8:24 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Mar 20, 2021 10:08 pm

At some point you can’t keep hiding under your bed from something that harmless to 99.5+% of the population.

Time for life to move on.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6722
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Mar 20, 2021 10:13 pm

msy2351 wrote:
At some point you can’t keep hiding under your bed from something that harmless to 99.5+% of the population.

Time for life to move on.

A lot higher percentage of people than that have ended up in the hospital or are now long haulers. It’s a lot more dangerous than your seasonal flu.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6557
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Mar 20, 2021 10:24 pm

janders wrote:
sevenheavy wrote:

There’s mounting evidence to suggest that vaccines cut transmission and asymptomatic cases significantly. This is just one and there are more out of Israel in particular.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-two ... s-12243898

This study acknowledges that they’ve actually lowballed their estimates due to likely impact of other external factors.


Vaccines indeed help reduce transmissions, but as was discussed in the non-Av COVID thread, there have been growing instances such as the case in the UK where they confirmed a cluster of 8 vaccinated folks getting the virus (all thankfully mild or asymptomatic), but at least two of them subsequently passed on the virus to four others.

So its a fallacy to believe being vaccinated makes one impervious to getting COVID, nor that it eliminates the ability to pass it on.

With still only a modest percentage of Americans fully vaccinated, the risk remains high of ongoing community transmission, and the rush to travel and congregate certainly raises chances of another wave.

Frankly, I am kissing 2021 good-bye as many large companies are doing also, and will wait for 2022 when hopefully do have much better control of the virus, and have a clearer path to reopening safely.


Thats your prerogative.

Ive had Covid and Ive been vaccinated. Im done. Ill still wear a mask, but thats the only concession Ill be providing from here on out.
 
Tiredofhumanity
Posts: 168
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Mar 20, 2021 10:25 pm

32andBelow wrote:
janders wrote:
sevenheavy wrote:

There’s mounting evidence to suggest that vaccines cut transmission and asymptomatic cases significantly. This is just one and there are more out of Israel in particular.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-two ... s-12243898

This study acknowledges that they’ve actually lowballed their estimates due to likely impact of other external factors.


Vaccines indeed help reduce transmissions, but as was discussed in the non-Av COVID thread, there have been growing instances such as the case in the UK where they confirmed a cluster of 8 vaccinated folks getting the virus (all thankfully mild or asymptomatic), but at least two of them subsequently passed on the virus to four others.

So its a fallacy to believe being vaccinated makes one impervious to getting COVID, nor that it eliminates the ability to pass it on.

With still only a modest percentage of Americans fully vaccinated, the risk remains high of ongoing community transmission, and the rush to travel and congregate certainly raises chances of another wave.

Frankly, I am kissing 2021 good-bye as many large companies are doing also, and will wait for 2022 when hopefully do have much better control of the virus, and have a clearer path to reopening safely.

Reopening is happening q2 wether your company is coming or not


Also, isn't the goal of the vaccination campaign to bring this thing under control and get the hospitals back to normal, not eliminate this virus?

The referenced cases above I think were to be expected if there's still a 6-10 percent chance based on the trials.

Rather than focusing on the rather unlikely chance of transmission amongst the vaccinated while flying, I think the biggest problem right now is that simply too many are unvaccinated. The 6-10% should not be a problem in the future if the hesitant idiots don't wreck it for the rest of us.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Mar 20, 2021 10:28 pm

Tiredofhumanity wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
janders wrote:

Vaccines indeed help reduce transmissions, but as was discussed in the non-Av COVID thread, there have been growing instances such as the case in the UK where they confirmed a cluster of 8 vaccinated folks getting the virus (all thankfully mild or asymptomatic), but at least two of them subsequently passed on the virus to four others.

So its a fallacy to believe being vaccinated makes one impervious to getting COVID, nor that it eliminates the ability to pass it on.

With still only a modest percentage of Americans fully vaccinated, the risk remains high of ongoing community transmission, and the rush to travel and congregate certainly raises chances of another wave.

Frankly, I am kissing 2021 good-bye as many large companies are doing also, and will wait for 2022 when hopefully do have much better control of the virus, and have a clearer path to reopening safely.

Reopening is happening q2 wether your company is coming or not


Also, isn't the goal of the vaccination campaign to bring this thing under control and get the hospitals back to normal, not eliminate this virus?

The referenced cases above I think were to be expected if there's still a 6-10 percent chance based on the trials.

Rather than focusing on the rather unlikely chance of transmission amongst the vaccinated while flying, I think the biggest problem right now is that simply too many are unvaccinated. The 6-10% should not be a problem in the future if the hesitant idiots don't wreck it for the rest of us.

Especially since if you get it when your vaccinated you won’t be hospitalized or die. You’re just sick. People got sick before the pandemic
 
SRQLOT
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Mar 20, 2021 11:06 pm

I think people have a misconception that a vaccine is a cure 100%. Wear your mask and wash your hands, don’t touch your eyes or your mouth. I was a believer that this was going to be serious last February, and I took precautions. I got a flu shot last fall and even with now 8 trips in 12 months under my belt, no COVID.

Just FYI for those who are waiting till 2022 to travel. There will be COVID-22!!! Or some crazy I’m Legend zombie event!! So get ready to stay locked up in your house.
 
IdlewildJFK
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Mar 21, 2021 12:45 am

I am just as guilty as the next person on contributing to this thread drift. In the interest of keeping a great thread open and on topic, I propose we move back on topic of booking trends.
 
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2nd2none
Posts: 136
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Mar 21, 2021 8:55 am

This may become the new international rule, Qantas boss: Governments 'to insist' on vaccines for flying: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56460329
 
KFTG
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Mar 21, 2021 9:48 am

janders wrote:
So its a fallacy to believe being vaccinated makes one impervious to getting COVID, nor that it eliminates the ability to pass it on.

It is also a fallacy to think that the lockdowns/restrictions were meant to stop the spread of a virus.
It was (until the goal posts were moved by politicians) about slowing the spread and protecting the ability of the health care system to provide treatment.
Stopping the spread is a fool's errand at this point.
 
MaxTrimm
Posts: 382
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Mar 21, 2021 10:07 am

IdlewildJFK wrote:
I am just as guilty as the next person on contributing to this thread drift. In the interest of keeping a great thread open and on topic, I propose we move back on topic of booking trends.

Agreed. My favorite thread on this website for the last 4 months.
Do we think that major carriers are done announcing new routes for the Summer or will they continue to come considering the still-dynamic booking trends that seem to change by the day?
 
RicFlyer
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Mar 21, 2021 1:26 pm

16 of the last 21 days have averaged over 1 million!!! This past week (March 14-20) every day was over 1 million. For the first time since Covid over 9 million flew in one week.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Mar 21, 2021 1:41 pm

Midwestindy wrote:


Update for April:

Nice capacity boost for DC & Hawaii, overall not much change.

Image
https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#
 
ethernal
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Mar 21, 2021 5:33 pm

32andBelow wrote:
janders wrote:
Frankly, I am kissing 2021 good-bye as many large companies are doing also, and will wait for 2022 when hopefully do have much better control of the virus, and have a clearer path to reopening safely.

Reopening is happening q2 wether your company is coming or not


"Reopening for America" may happen for all intents and purposes by May for leisure, but large corporate travel departments will be the slowest to recover. Q3 is a more realistic timeline for some degree of return to normalcy for most large corporates, although green shoots are starting to be seen - but travel will remain by-exception-only until June at the very earliest for most large corporates, and likely calendar Q3 for most.

Pragmatically, we're in a wave of national optimism right now that is probably about a month or two premature. We're all excited (myself included) because case counts have come down dramatically from our winter peak and the vaccines are providing the light at the end of the tunnel - but things are not all roses under the covers. While deaths are a lagging indicator and declining, more people are still reported as dying every day than they were for almost all of June through October of last year. Cases are still high (albeit case undercounts are probably less than they were in the Spring/early summer of last year) and show signs of starting to increase in many areas.

There are troubling variants that are raising death rates and increasing the threshold to reach herd immunity (the UK variant will likely overtake the original strain as the majority of US cases this week). Right now, vaccines are supply limited nationally, but there are troubling signs that demand is becoming an issue in rural, low-education parts of the country with vaccine penetration at less than 30% of the adult population. With the UK variant, the percentage of the population that needs to get vaccinated is probably 80%+ to hit herd immunity - especially if the JnJ mix increases going forward (which it will). 30% is a long way from 80%.

Regardless of the CDC guidance, I do think it is reasonable for a person fully vaccinated with a 2-dose mRNA vaccine to feel comfortable traveling and not feel like they are creating a material risk for others. Of course there is always some risk, but life is full of risk, and the 2-dose mRNA vaccinations appear to be effective at preventing asymptomatic infection by 90%+. Combined with continued mask wearing that's essentially di minimus risk - especially relative to most of the shenanigans in many places (packed bars, etc).

But bean counters and policy setters at large corporates though are not individuals and typically err on the side of caution. CDC guidance still says travel should be avoided, even for vaccinated individuals. And large corporations will have problems setting policies around "vaccinated vs. unvaccinated", especially given that the vaccines are only under EUA. And they obviously can't set policies that differentiate between the mRNA vaccines vs. the less effective JnJ vaccine. So, as long as there is wide endemic spread and CDC guidelines say "avoid travel", the majority of large corporates are going to be very conservative in how much travel they allow - and it will continue to be by exception only.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Mar 21, 2021 6:05 pm

ethernal wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
janders wrote:
Frankly, I am kissing 2021 good-bye as many large companies are doing also, and will wait for 2022 when hopefully do have much better control of the virus, and have a clearer path to reopening safely.

Reopening is happening q2 wether your company is coming or not


"Reopening for America" may happen for all intents and purposes by May for leisure, but large corporate travel departments will be the slowest to recover. Q3 is a more realistic timeline for some degree of return to normalcy for most large corporates, although green shoots are starting to be seen - but travel will remain by-exception-only until June at the very earliest for most large corporates, and likely calendar Q3 for most.

Pragmatically, we're in a wave of national optimism right now that is probably about a month or two premature. We're all excited (myself included) because case counts have come down dramatically from our winter peak and the vaccines are providing the light at the end of the tunnel - but things are not all roses under the covers. While deaths are a lagging indicator and declining, more people are still reported as dying every day than they were for almost all of June through October of last year. Cases are still high (albeit case undercounts are probably less than they were in the Spring/early summer of last year) and show signs of starting to increase in many areas.

There are troubling variants that are raising death rates and increasing the threshold to reach herd immunity (the UK variant will likely overtake the original strain as the majority of US cases this week). Right now, vaccines are supply limited nationally, but there are troubling signs that demand is becoming an issue in rural, low-education parts of the country with vaccine penetration at less than 30% of the adult population. With the UK variant, the percentage of the population that needs to get vaccinated is probably 80%+ to hit herd immunity - especially if the JnJ mix increases going forward (which it will). 30% is a long way from 80%.

Regardless of the CDC guidance, I do think it is reasonable for a person fully vaccinated with a 2-dose mRNA vaccine to feel comfortable traveling and not feel like they are creating a material risk for others. Of course there is always some risk, but life is full of risk, and the 2-dose mRNA vaccinations appear to be effective at preventing asymptomatic infection by 90%+. Combined with continued mask wearing that's essentially di minimus risk - especially relative to most of the shenanigans in many places (packed bars, etc).

But bean counters and policy setters at large corporates though are not individuals and typically err on the side of caution. CDC guidance still says travel should be avoided, even for vaccinated individuals. And large corporations will have problems setting policies around "vaccinated vs. unvaccinated", especially given that the vaccines are only under EUA. And they obviously can't set policies that differentiate between the mRNA vaccines vs. the less effective JnJ vaccine. So, as long as there is wide endemic spread and CDC guidelines say "avoid travel", the majority of large corporates are going to be very conservative in how much travel they allow - and it will continue to be by exception only.

Q3 will be interesting. Google has said they are going back to the office in a big way. The question will be can work from home sales teams compete if they don’t jump back out there
 
ethernal
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Mar 21, 2021 6:30 pm

32andBelow wrote:
ethernal wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Reopening is happening q2 wether your company is coming or not


"Reopening for America" may happen for all intents and purposes by May for leisure, but large corporate travel departments will be the slowest to recover. Q3 is a more realistic timeline for some degree of return to normalcy for most large corporates, although green shoots are starting to be seen - but travel will remain by-exception-only until June at the very earliest for most large corporates, and likely calendar Q3 for most.

Pragmatically, we're in a wave of national optimism right now that is probably about a month or two premature. We're all excited (myself included) because case counts have come down dramatically from our winter peak and the vaccines are providing the light at the end of the tunnel - but things are not all roses under the covers. While deaths are a lagging indicator and declining, more people are still reported as dying every day than they were for almost all of June through October of last year. Cases are still high (albeit case undercounts are probably less than they were in the Spring/early summer of last year) and show signs of starting to increase in many areas.

There are troubling variants that are raising death rates and increasing the threshold to reach herd immunity (the UK variant will likely overtake the original strain as the majority of US cases this week). Right now, vaccines are supply limited nationally, but there are troubling signs that demand is becoming an issue in rural, low-education parts of the country with vaccine penetration at less than 30% of the adult population. With the UK variant, the percentage of the population that needs to get vaccinated is probably 80%+ to hit herd immunity - especially if the JnJ mix increases going forward (which it will). 30% is a long way from 80%.

Regardless of the CDC guidance, I do think it is reasonable for a person fully vaccinated with a 2-dose mRNA vaccine to feel comfortable traveling and not feel like they are creating a material risk for others. Of course there is always some risk, but life is full of risk, and the 2-dose mRNA vaccinations appear to be effective at preventing asymptomatic infection by 90%+. Combined with continued mask wearing that's essentially di minimus risk - especially relative to most of the shenanigans in many places (packed bars, etc).

But bean counters and policy setters at large corporates though are not individuals and typically err on the side of caution. CDC guidance still says travel should be avoided, even for vaccinated individuals. And large corporations will have problems setting policies around "vaccinated vs. unvaccinated", especially given that the vaccines are only under EUA. And they obviously can't set policies that differentiate between the mRNA vaccines vs. the less effective JnJ vaccine. So, as long as there is wide endemic spread and CDC guidelines say "avoid travel", the majority of large corporates are going to be very conservative in how much travel they allow - and it will continue to be by exception only.

Q3 will be interesting. Google has said they are going back to the office in a big way. The question will be can work from home sales teams compete if they don’t jump back out there


Sales focused on Fortune 1000 clients will be one of the last to start back up.

First, it requires a client to actually be in the office to go visit - which is not true for many companies today. For those that do have critical mass back in the office, very few Fortune 1000 are allowing consultants / contractors / sales people / other third party visitors on site without exception approval.

I am sure as things normalize the exception approval process will get easier, but I had a client laptop that I need to access data that broke a few weeks ago and tried to go in to get it swapped out. I literally live across the street from their headquarters (2 minute walk) and their on-site help desk was open for employees, but I couldn't go in myself even after getting SVP signoff. It was overruled by facilities saying it could be handled virtually / via alternative means. They shipped me a replacement via FedEx instead. As an aside, ironically it was supposed to be overnight, but ended up taking 2 days. Probably one of the longest delivery times per unit of distance in FedEx's history... :)
 
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UPlog
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Mar 21, 2021 6:36 pm

Corp travel will be slow to come back as there is high liability involved in having folks back in the office or on the road.

My wife's company a global consumer goods company has a blanket travel ban and work from home in place until Oct 1st for most white-collar U.S employees. Even in most optimistic scenarios, they will adopt a hybrid model with people in the office a few days per week to start.

Also regarding the vaccines, HR informed employees the company will not, nor can it mandate employees take non-approved vaccines which are currently on the market only under emergency use authorization.

Anyhow, for large corporations, there is not much point in travel when much of your client base also remain working from home, and the globe is largely shut with various levels of entry restrictions.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Mar 21, 2021 7:09 pm

UPlog wrote:
Corp travel will be slow to come back as there is high liability involved in having folks back in the office or on the road.

My wife's company a global consumer goods company has a blanket travel ban and work from home in place until Oct 1st for most white-collar U.S employees. Even in most optimistic scenarios, they will adopt a hybrid model with people in the office a few days per week to start.

Also regarding the vaccines, HR informed employees the company will not, nor can it mandate employees take non-approved vaccines which are currently on the market only under emergency use authorization.

Anyhow, for large corporations, there is not much point in travel when much of your client base also remain working from home, and the globe is largely shut with various levels of entry restrictions.


Important to remember each company is different,

My company(Top 100 corp travel spender) started travel last summer, and I have business trips tentatively scheduled in the coming months, all of which would generally be considered "non-essential."

FWIW, "About three-quarters of corporate travel buyers and procurement professionals surveyed this month by the Global Business Travel Association project their organizations will resume non-essential domestic business travel sometime this year, if they haven't already."
https://www.businesstravelnews.com/Mana ... vel-Return
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Mar 21, 2021 7:15 pm

UPlog wrote:
Corp travel will be slow to come back as there is high liability involved in having folks back in the office or on the road.

My wife's company a global consumer goods company has a blanket travel ban and work from home in place until Oct 1st for most white-collar U.S employees. Even in most optimistic scenarios, they will adopt a hybrid model with people in the office a few days per week to start.

Also regarding the vaccines, HR informed employees the company will not, nor can it mandate employees take non-approved vaccines which are currently on the market only under emergency use authorization.

Anyhow, for large corporations, there is not much point in travel when much of your client base also remain working from home, and the globe is largely shut with various levels of entry restrictions.

The question is will these policies still be workable if their competitors start moving first.
 
ethernal
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Mar 21, 2021 7:41 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
UPlog wrote:
Corp travel will be slow to come back as there is high liability involved in having folks back in the office or on the road.

My wife's company a global consumer goods company has a blanket travel ban and work from home in place until Oct 1st for most white-collar U.S employees. Even in most optimistic scenarios, they will adopt a hybrid model with people in the office a few days per week to start.

Also regarding the vaccines, HR informed employees the company will not, nor can it mandate employees take non-approved vaccines which are currently on the market only under emergency use authorization.

Anyhow, for large corporations, there is not much point in travel when much of your client base also remain working from home, and the globe is largely shut with various levels of entry restrictions.


Important to remember each company is different,

My company(Top 100 corp travel spender) started travel last summer, and I have business trips tentatively scheduled in the coming months, all of which would generally be considered "non-essential."

FWIW, "About three-quarters of corporate travel buyers and procurement professionals surveyed this month by the Global Business Travel Association project their organizations will resume non-essential domestic business travel sometime this year, if they haven't already."
https://www.businesstravelnews.com/Mana ... vel-Return


I don't think anyone is arguing that we should expect to see a large corporate "return to normal (if a bit depressed)" sometime this year. But timing is up for debate. Large corporate travel will return more in Q3 than Q2, although I am sure that compared to Q1, large corporate travel will increase dramatically in Q2.

My firm is one of the 10 largest travel spenders within the US. And yes, we are technically traveling. But at insanely depressed levels. Year-to-date, domestic travel is roughly 3% what it was a year ago. If I had to guess, we'll get up to 10-15% by end of Q2 (relative to 2019). Which is a massive increase from Q1, but still hugely depressed. Q3/early Q4 is when we may start to see material numbers (maybe up to 50-60%) in the air again. After that, it will be a long time to get back to 100% of 2019 - I sense that much of our travel has been disrupted, at least in the short run.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:41 am

1.5M smashed, 1,543,115 passengers yesterday, last two days above 60% of 2019.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:57 am

Midwestindy wrote:
1.5M smashed, 1,543,115 passengers yesterday, last two days above 60% of 2019.

This is just an insane ramp up. I think this week will be even busier. Then prolly a small pullback.
 
ethernal
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 22, 2021 2:03 pm

32andBelow wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
1.5M smashed, 1,543,115 passengers yesterday, last two days above 60% of 2019.

This is just an insane ramp up. I think this week will be even busier. Then prolly a small pullback.


I don't think we'll see a pullback. We haven't even hit peak Spring Break for non-college students. That takes place the week before, during, and after Easter. I don't know the veracity of this chart in terms of how the data was collected, but at least for K-12 matches my understanding of regional K-12 Spring Break timing (Southern states are typically earlier, Northern states are a bit later).

Image

And vax-cations are a thing. Everyone I know that has gotten their first dose has already pre-scheduled a trip for when they expect to be fully vaccinated. That will probably start picking up the load by late April when Spring Break dies down.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 22, 2021 2:20 pm

I purposely went to Colorado the week of 2/28-3/6 since that is right before spring break travel ramps-up. There was a noticable difference in the airport between the weekend of 2/27-2/28 and the following weekend of 3/6-3/7 when spring break travel started.

Week of 3/7 is when a lot of colleges start to have spring breaks that stagger over the month of March.
Week of 3/7 is Texas spring break week when a lot of K-12 & Colleges are on break
Week of 3/14 is when a lot of schools in Georgia, Carolinas, Florida have spring breaks
Week of 3/21 is when Colorado K-12 & colleges tend of have spring break

Week of 3/28 & week of 4/4 is when a lot of the K-12 schools in the Midwest and Northeast have their spring breaks. In my area the week of 3/28 is when the schools in Metro Detroit are off.
I was talking to a neighbor over the weekend and they are flying to MYR with their kids and know I've been traveling so they were asking me all about what to expect since they haven't flown anywhere since Summer 2019.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 22, 2021 2:30 pm

MaxTrimm wrote:
IdlewildJFK wrote:
I am just as guilty as the next person on contributing to this thread drift. In the interest of keeping a great thread open and on topic, I propose we move back on topic of booking trends.

Agreed. My favorite thread on this website for the last 4 months.
Do we think that major carriers are done announcing new routes for the Summer or will they continue to come considering the still-dynamic booking trends that seem to change by the day?

I suspect that most of the new summer seasonal route announcements have mostly been made by this point.
We saw the big announcements already from AA, NK, G4, and lastly and finally DL over the past week. I think UA may have just been dripping their announcements out over time and not all in one splash like the others.

I say that they likely already have their new domestic routes announced and loaded for sale as we are now within the summer booking window for travel. People are booking now and popular seasonal destinations are already going to be booked-up for lodging during peak summer weeks.

What we are likely to see from here on out is capacity added back in, upgauging, and more flights and bookings fill-in. Not net-new routes per say, but adding in additional flights/capacity as demand signals.

I'm most familiar with DL for example, but they have done some longer range scheduling by taking out flights they do not intend to operate through the end of the schedule (e.g, some of the stuff out of CVG, RDU for example), taken down the international routes they do not intent to fly this summer regardless of border statuses. They have added in new routes like the stuff announced last week like DTW-ANC. The rest of the domestic schedule for summer 2021 is essentially a default schedule that pretty much resembles frequency/capacity from Summer 2019. They then pull-down/adjust/update the schedule 6-8 weeks in advance to reflect what they are actually going to fly. DL just did a major update on their May schedule over the past weekend.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 22, 2021 3:27 pm

 
RicFlyer
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Mar 23, 2021 1:37 pm

The upswing in travelers continues yesterday (Monday) 1,360,290 up 8% compared to same day last week. Also the largest Monday since Covid started (ex.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Mar 23, 2021 1:49 pm

Again not surprising. I flew out of DTW last night on a 9pm departure and when I got to the airport around 7:45pm the hoards of people arriving in the evening departure bank felt like old times.

Cars were backed up in the arrivals area, police directing traffic. At peak arrivals banks, its busy.
Its spring break travel season, and I sense its not just people doing week-long trips, but a lot of long weekends, departing on Thursday and Friday with people flying back on Mondays.
Also, when I was looking at some flights, the prices for Sunday flights back from Florida are insane, and Mondays are significantly cheaper.

Also, my flight into DCA last night on DL was actually nearly Covid-era full (middle seat blocking). The times I've been on this route in months prior a lot of times the evening midweek departure was more like maybe 20-40 people on an A319
 
cledaybuck
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Mar 23, 2021 4:32 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I was talking to a neighbor over the weekend and they are flying to MYR with their kids and know I've been traveling so they were asking me all about what to expect since they haven't flown anywhere since Summer 2019.
Why would anyone want to go to MYR this time of year other than maybe a golf trip?
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Mar 23, 2021 4:41 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I was talking to a neighbor over the weekend and they are flying to MYR with their kids and know I've been traveling so they were asking me all about what to expect since they haven't flown anywhere since Summer 2019.
Why would anyone want to go to MYR this time of year other than maybe a golf trip?

Pre season golf trip so you don’t look like a wanker when the courses open up north
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Mar 23, 2021 5:40 pm

Alaska Airlines reporting bookings at 70% of normal

Maui domestic travel up 1000% YOY ;)
Image

Image

https://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/economic ... -Mar21.pdf
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelgol ... 33acf27fe7
 
AmericanAir88
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Mar 23, 2021 7:08 pm

Excellent TSA numbers so far. For a Monday, the 1.36 million is great.

This doesn’t even consider the amount of connections at places like DFW, ORD, and ATL.

Things are hopefully looking up. I believe if the pandemic continues to recede, summer will be pleasantly surprising for the airline industry.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Mar 23, 2021 8:01 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
MaxTrimm wrote:
IdlewildJFK wrote:
I am just as guilty as the next person on contributing to this thread drift. In the interest of keeping a great thread open and on topic, I propose we move back on topic of booking trends.

Agreed. My favorite thread on this website for the last 4 months.
Do we think that major carriers are done announcing new routes for the Summer or will they continue to come considering the still-dynamic booking trends that seem to change by the day?

I suspect that most of the new summer seasonal route announcements have mostly been made by this point.
We saw the big announcements already from AA, NK, G4, and lastly and finally DL over the past week. I think UA may have just been dripping their announcements out over time and not all in one splash like the others.

I say that they likely already have their new domestic routes announced and loaded for sale as we are now within the summer booking window for travel. People are booking now and popular seasonal destinations are already going to be booked-up for lodging during peak summer weeks.

What we are likely to see from here on out is capacity added back in, upgauging, and more flights and bookings fill-in. Not net-new routes per say, but adding in additional flights/capacity as demand signals.

I'm most familiar with DL for example, but they have done some longer range scheduling by taking out flights they do not intend to operate through the end of the schedule (e.g, some of the stuff out of CVG, RDU for example), taken down the international routes they do not intent to fly this summer regardless of border statuses. They have added in new routes like the stuff announced last week like DTW-ANC. The rest of the domestic schedule for summer 2021 is essentially a default schedule that pretty much resembles frequency/capacity from Summer 2019. They then pull-down/adjust/update the schedule 6-8 weeks in advance to reflect what they are actually going to fly. DL just did a major update on their May schedule over the past weekend.


It is getting kind of late for June additions, although I wouldn't be surprised if F9 had a move up its sleeve. It's been weird watching them not announce anything major.

There is a lot of frequency adds left for airlines to do, which could eat into any potential new routes. But there is still opportunity in the July time frame for new route additions.

We still have Breeze who will add new routes as well.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Mar 23, 2021 8:14 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
MaxTrimm wrote:
Agreed. My favorite thread on this website for the last 4 months.
Do we think that major carriers are done announcing new routes for the Summer or will they continue to come considering the still-dynamic booking trends that seem to change by the day?

I suspect that most of the new summer seasonal route announcements have mostly been made by this point.
We saw the big announcements already from AA, NK, G4, and lastly and finally DL over the past week. I think UA may have just been dripping their announcements out over time and not all in one splash like the others.

I say that they likely already have their new domestic routes announced and loaded for sale as we are now within the summer booking window for travel. People are booking now and popular seasonal destinations are already going to be booked-up for lodging during peak summer weeks.

What we are likely to see from here on out is capacity added back in, upgauging, and more flights and bookings fill-in. Not net-new routes per say, but adding in additional flights/capacity as demand signals.

I'm most familiar with DL for example, but they have done some longer range scheduling by taking out flights they do not intend to operate through the end of the schedule (e.g, some of the stuff out of CVG, RDU for example), taken down the international routes they do not intent to fly this summer regardless of border statuses. They have added in new routes like the stuff announced last week like DTW-ANC. The rest of the domestic schedule for summer 2021 is essentially a default schedule that pretty much resembles frequency/capacity from Summer 2019. They then pull-down/adjust/update the schedule 6-8 weeks in advance to reflect what they are actually going to fly. DL just did a major update on their May schedule over the past weekend.


It is getting kind of late for June additions, although I wouldn't be surprised if F9 had a move up its sleeve. It's been weird watching them not announce anything major.

There is a lot of frequency adds left for airlines to do, which could eat into any potential new routes. But there is still opportunity in the July time frame for new route additions.

We still have Breeze who will add new routes as well.

I think we’ll just see frequency adds or up gauges on routes that fill up. I predict some interesting domestic wide bodied this summer. Especially if airlines are starting to shake out their long haul planes and crews in advance of 2022
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Mar 23, 2021 8:44 pm

The capacity page I was following is updated again through April, although yoy comparisons look good since April had tiny capacity.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dafa ... edSeats/US

Midwestindy wrote:
Preliminary December capacity is up vs November (numbers for G4 are actually slightly higher as some of their airports aren't included in the report)

Most airports are still down significantly, but a few small/mid-sized airports are up big, for obvious reasons:

CUN
SJD
PVR
JAC
EYW
BZN
MTJ
HDN
e.t.c

Image

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dafa ... edSeats/US
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Mar 24, 2021 1:36 pm

Mexico travel has recovered from the international restrictions

True load factor is above 71.3% due to load factor caps from DL & AS
Image
Image

https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Mar 24, 2021 9:50 pm

I will say it is definetely a tale of two cities out there right now.....

Currently in the DL DCA SkyClub and there are all of 6 people in here at 5:30pm on a Wednesday.
DL only has 3 planes on their gates.

Looking across the alleyway, there is 2 AA planes.

The terminal and concourse is an absolute ghost town.....at again 5:30pm on a Wednesday early evening.

DCA feels like zombie apocolypse.
 
Scarebus34
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Mar 24, 2021 10:09 pm

[photoid][/photoid]
Midwestindy wrote:
Mexico travel has recovered from the international restrictions

True load factor is above 71.3% due to load factor caps from DL & AS
Image
Image

https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

Not surprised. Cheap rapid tests are easy to come by in the major tourist markets.
 
chrisair
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Mar 25, 2021 3:46 am

ethernal wrote:
Regardless of the CDC guidance, I do think it is reasonable for a person fully vaccinated with a 2-dose mRNA vaccine to feel comfortable traveling and not feel like they are creating a material risk for others. Of course there is always some risk, but life is full of risk, and the 2-dose mRNA vaccinations appear to be effective at preventing asymptomatic infection by 90%+. Combined with continued mask wearing that's essentially di minimus risk - especially relative to most of the shenanigans in many places (packed bars, etc).


100% agree. Flew at the four week mark from my second Pfizer jab. Felt completely comfortable ON the plane.

There will always be the "iT's JuSt tHe fLu aNd HoAX" types. As long as they don't sit next to me, I feel very comfortable. Very, very thankful to be vaccinated and it felt good to be back in the sky!
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Mar 25, 2021 8:00 pm

chrisair wrote:
ethernal wrote:
Regardless of the CDC guidance, I do think it is reasonable for a person fully vaccinated with a 2-dose mRNA vaccine to feel comfortable traveling and not feel like they are creating a material risk for others. Of course there is always some risk, but life is full of risk, and the 2-dose mRNA vaccinations appear to be effective at preventing asymptomatic infection by 90%+. Combined with continued mask wearing that's essentially di minimus risk - especially relative to most of the shenanigans in many places (packed bars, etc).


100% agree. Flew at the four week mark from my second Pfizer jab. Felt completely comfortable ON the plane.

There will always be the "iT's JuSt tHe fLu aNd HoAX" types. As long as they don't sit next to me, I feel very comfortable. Very, very thankful to be vaccinated and it felt good to be back in the sky!


Receiving my first dose this weekend, and already have booked 3 trips for Mid-May. Once I am fully vaccinated & have waited the appropriate time after, I am going back to relative normality.

------------------------------
Florida is crazy right now, Florida Keys occupancy topped 95%, Tampa was at 88% (Keys & Sarasota above 2019 levels):

We saw the highest hotel occupancy since the first week of March, Weekend occupancy was even stronger at 71.7% nationwide:
Image
https://str.com/data-insights-blog/us-m ... g-20-march

Midwestindy wrote:


Booking window continues to grow:

Image
https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

Finally, I got a better look at bookings, with international bookings added in. Nice that this is indexed to Jan 2021 now:

You can see the impact the testing restrictions had initially:
Image
https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/repor ... page/T4qIB

The domestic side is intriguing as well, close-in bookings remain nearly at the levels they were at during the beginning of the year, but take a look at 60-91+ days.

This trend is why you are starting to see the US airlines get more aggressive with summer schedules.

31-60 day booking peaks were driven by the Spring Break period.
Image
https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/repor ... page/BUtIB
 
chrisair
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:00 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Receiving my first dose this weekend, and already have booked 3 trips for Mid-May. Once I am fully vaccinated & have waited the appropriate time after, I am going back to relative normality.


Same thing for me. Not sure which jab you’re getting, but the next five/six weeks will go really quick!

Beginning to dread the summer travel scene.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:28 pm

Yeah in a weird way I’ve actually “enjoyed” the calm travel experience on DL at least since I’ve been back in the air since September.

I don’t miss the scrums at the gate, the insane boarding process, the fight for overhead bin space, the dykwia business traveling thinking he’s entitled to upgrades because he’s a gold status, the sales guys always trying to close the deal while sitting on the plane, and all the other nonsense that was air travel circa 2019.

I know this isn’t sustainable,
But having a row in F to myself or just not having to deal with all the annoynces of full flights and stupid, narcissistic people traveling that seem to forget all common sense and decorum when they get to the airport is something a least for the time being has been nice over the past year.
 
ethernal
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Mar 26, 2021 12:25 am

chrisair wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Receiving my first dose this weekend, and already have booked 3 trips for Mid-May. Once I am fully vaccinated & have waited the appropriate time after, I am going back to relative normality.


Same thing for me. Not sure which jab you’re getting, but the next five/six weeks will go really quick!

Beginning to dread the summer travel scene.


Hah! Disagree on it going quick.. I got mine nearly two weeks ago and it seems like it's crawling - longest 6 weeks of my life!
 
MaxTrimm
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Mar 26, 2021 9:00 pm

AA:
"Bookings (aa.com and mobile) are up 150-400% compared to last year and within a few points of 2019. In fact, bookings last weekend were higher than they were in 2019!

The last 7 days have been our biggest revenue days since the pandemic started.

We flew a nearly 80% domestic load factor last week

We plan to be flying all our aircraft as of May – no more grounded planes"

AA email from Maya Leibman, https://twitter.com/xjonnyc/status/1375 ... 24386?s=21
 
chrisair
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Mar 26, 2021 10:21 pm

ethernal wrote:
Hah! Disagree on it going quick.. I got mine nearly two weeks ago and it seems like it's crawling - longest 6 weeks of my life!


LOL. Perhaps it’s just because the winter always seems to fly by here in Arizona. You’re almost there!

MaxTrimm wrote:
AA:
"Bookings (aa.com and mobile) are up 150-400% compared to last year


I find comparing to 2020 kind of a weird metric. Of course bookings are going to be up triple (or probably quadruple) digits. I get it from an accounting standpoint, but it’s just funny to me.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Mar 27, 2021 2:45 am

chrisair wrote:
ethernal wrote:
Hah! Disagree on it going quick.. I got mine nearly two weeks ago and it seems like it's crawling - longest 6 weeks of my life!


LOL. Perhaps it’s just because the winter always seems to fly by here in Arizona. You’re almost there!

MaxTrimm wrote:
AA:
"Bookings (aa.com and mobile) are up 150-400% compared to last year


I find comparing to 2020 kind of a weird metric. Of course bookings are going to be up triple (or probably quadruple) digits. I get it from an accounting standpoint, but it’s just funny to me.

Yah but they also had data compared to 2019 in the next sentence
 
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SumChristianus
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Mar 28, 2021 7:19 pm

TSA seems to have fixed their YOY comparison discrepancy that had been going on in the data for a couple of weeks. https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

Friday at 1,535,156 was the highest total yet since the pandemic started while Saturday at 1,408,198 set a new record for % of normal (defined as 2021 over 2019) at 64.8%.

With that milestone, we've actually cracked by a hair past the lowest regular day in 2019, February 1... Although comparing the highest of the pandemic highs to the lowest of regular times lows is kind of disingenuous its a milestone in that the numbers we're seeing now are in some way "normal" as they've been seen before in normal times pre-pandemic.

Still a long way for travel to go... but looking hopeful! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Mar 28, 2021 7:29 pm

Saturday smashed the next highest YOY % mark, Saturday recorded ~1.4M or 64.8% of 2019.

Hawaiian:

"The company expects to reduce its daily cash burn this quarter to $1.3 million to $1.5 million"

"We’re actually looking at having to ask some of our employees who were on voluntary leaves to come back before those voluntary leaves expire because we are schooling up our schedule and the bookings are picking up.”

“But as we sit here, right now, we’re feeling pretty enthusiastic that we could have a bit of a stronger summer"
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2021/03/ ... ry-section

Interesting source for tracking bookings by destination:

These states are currently tracking above 2019 levels:
Alaska
Arizona
Hawaii
Montana
South Carolina
Wyoming

https://www.sojern.com/covid-19-insights/#report
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:46 pm

AA SEC:

-As of March 26, the Company’s seven day moving average of its net bookings is approximately 90% of the level experienced in 2019, with a domestic load factor of approximately 80% during that same period. The Company presently expects this strength in bookings to continue through the end of the first quarter and into the second quarter

-The Company now expects its first-quarter system capacity (total available seat miles) to be down approximately 40% to 45% versus the first quarter 2019. This compares to the Company’s previous guidance of down 45%

https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com/st ... 5f9994b336
 
RicFlyer
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:57 pm

Sunday, March 28, was the highest TSA checkpoint travel number, since March 14,2014 at 1,574,228 or 62% of the 2019 number.

How much higher can this number go with the airlines operating less flights. We know that we cannot reach the 2019 number since there are less flights flying and Delta still blocking middle seats. Just asking while sitting on my mothers couch in the basement....lol
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:49 pm

RicFlyer wrote:
Sunday, March 28, was the highest TSA checkpoint travel number, since March 14,2014 at 1,574,228 or 62% of the 2019 number.

How much higher can this number go with the airlines operating less flights. We know that we cannot reach the 2019 number since there are less flights flying and Delta still blocking middle seats. Just asking while sitting on my mothers couch in the basement....lol


Airlines likely unintentionally snuffed out some of the demand in the past couple weeks, given they didn't operate as much capacity as they could have, leading to higher fares and high load factors. AA's MIA LFs for example were in the mid-90s over the past few weekends.

I don't see major increases in numbers on the horizon until May given the increase in capacity from March-->April is not significant.

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