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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:23 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Early summer bookings warming up, look at the spike this week in 31-60 days :stirthepot:

Image
Image
Image

https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/repor ... page/T4qIB


Good trend reversal last week as alluded to above:
Image
https://www2.arccorp.com/about-us/newsr ... l-11-2021/

Good 8K from UA this morning as well:

" In March 2021, the Company observed a forward acceleration in customer demand for travel and new bookings, resulting in positive average daily core cash flow (as defined below) for the month of March 2021 and expected positive average daily core cash flow moving forward. Average daily core cash flow (or core cash burn) for the first quarter of 2021 is expected to be approximately negative $9 million per day, an improvement of about $10 million per day compared to the negative average daily core cash flow (or core cash burn) reported for the fourth quarter of 2020."

https://ir.united.com/static-files/ea04 ... 4186ef7f0c
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Apr 13, 2021 3:00 pm

Update from AA today:

March cash burn decreased all the way to $4M/day, that includes $8M-9M related to one-off employee early retirement programs. Which some airlines haven't been including in their cash burn calculations.

A far cry from the $27M/day they burned overall in Q1.
https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com/st ... c220c54b2f

Domestic searches at around 75% of 2019

Image

https://www.kayak.com/flight-trends


Image
https://forwardkeys.com/global-covid-19 ... onitoring/
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:04 pm

Big update from DL today:

"Daily cash burn averaged $11 million for the quarter (lower than guidance), turning positive in the month of March, with cash generation of $4 million per day as consumers gained confidence to travel and began buying tickets for travel further out, driving an extension of the booking curve."

“Recent demand trends are encouraging with rising confidence in air travel as vaccination rates improve and travel restrictions ease, with current domestic leisure bookings 85% recovered to 2019 levels.”

"For the month of March, passenger revenue was 50 percent higher than February, nearly 15-points better than normal seasonality trends driven by momentum in leisure demand. Net cash sales, defined as tickets purchased less tickets refunded, doubled from the month of January to the month of March and are continuing to improve."

"Corporate demand declined 80 percent versus the March quarter 2019. The corporate recovery showed signs of improvement during the quarter with March volumes improving relative to February at a rate twice the normal seasonal growth between the two months."

"If recovery trends hold, we expect positive cash generation for the June quarter and see a path to return to profitability in the September quarter as the demand recovery progresses"

Q2 they expect to operate 68% of 2019 capacity (60% of sellable capacity, 15% jump from Q1 sellable)
https://ir.delta.com/files/doc_financia ... esults.pdf



Also update from AS earlier this week:

Q1 estimated positive cash flow of $150M, better than 50-100M guidance.
https://investor.alaskaair.com/static-f ... 214bd48a8c
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MaxTrimm
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:25 pm

Significantly insignificant, because this is an extremely small group of people, but I think this may be worth something as vaccinated overseas travel begins to recover as countries reopen to vaccinated travelers. I’m not saying NBA scouts will actually change passenger numbers, but I can see many more companies and agencies following suit, maybe as soon as this Summer. With United’s announcement of new flights to Europe for vaccinated people, it will be interesting to see how much uptick we see.

Source: The NBA has informed teams that fully-vaccinated NBA personnel are permitted to travel overseas to evaluate draft prospects once again. The NBA had banned international travel since October 9th of 2020.
 
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Apr 20, 2021 12:58 am

Well....
Looks like you can kiss International travel goodbye, through at least the End of the Year:

Kiss goodbye to foreign travel: State Department plans 'Do Not Travel' advisories for 80% of countries due to COVID
The U.S. Department of State announced it will be issuing 'Level 4: Do Not Travel' advisories for 80% of countries in the coming weeks

In a statement released on Monday, officials recommended that Americans 'reconsider all travel abroad'

Level 4 is generally reserved for war-torn countries or those that would be considered hostile to U.S. citizens such as Afghanistan and North Korea
It comes two weeks after the CDC issued new guidelines stating that people who are fully vaccinated can travel safely within the U.S and internationally

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... tries.html
 
MaxTrimm
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Apr 20, 2021 1:39 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
Well....
Looks like you can kiss International travel goodbye, through at least the End of the Year:

Kiss goodbye to foreign travel: State Department plans 'Do Not Travel' advisories for 80% of countries due to COVID
The U.S. Department of State announced it will be issuing 'Level 4: Do Not Travel' advisories for 80% of countries in the coming weeks

In a statement released on Monday, officials recommended that Americans 'reconsider all travel abroad'

Level 4 is generally reserved for war-torn countries or those that would be considered hostile to U.S. citizens such as Afghanistan and North Korea
It comes two weeks after the CDC issued new guidelines stating that people who are fully vaccinated can travel safely within the U.S and internationally

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... tries.html

An absolute joke. I don’t understand this move from the CDC/State Department one bit. The inconsistent messaging from authorities on COVID guidance has become beyond frustrating.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Apr 20, 2021 1:40 am

Even if people are vaccinated and travel to countries with low vaccination rates they could bring new varients home. This is why business won't make people fly in 2021 at a bare minimum. Business travel buys the business class seats needed for alot of these routes to make money. Look for a huge domestic travel surge this summer as international is relatively low. I think we will see more wide-bodies go to domestic routes like hawaii and Florida and vegas.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Apr 20, 2021 1:45 am

MaxTrimm wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
Well....
Looks like you can kiss International travel goodbye, through at least the End of the Year:

Kiss goodbye to foreign travel: State Department plans 'Do Not Travel' advisories for 80% of countries due to COVID
The U.S. Department of State announced it will be issuing 'Level 4: Do Not Travel' advisories for 80% of countries in the coming weeks

In a statement released on Monday, officials recommended that Americans 'reconsider all travel abroad'

Level 4 is generally reserved for war-torn countries or those that would be considered hostile to U.S. citizens such as Afghanistan and North Korea
It comes two weeks after the CDC issued new guidelines stating that people who are fully vaccinated can travel safely within the U.S and internationally

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... tries.html

An absolute joke. I don’t understand this move from the CDC/State Department one bit. The inconsistent messaging from authorities on COVID guidance has become beyond frustrating.

More:

https://www.reuters.com/business/health ... ce=twitter
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Apr 20, 2021 2:00 am

[code][/code]
MaxTrimm wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
Well....
Looks like you can kiss International travel goodbye, through at least the End of the Year:

Kiss goodbye to foreign travel: State Department plans 'Do Not Travel' advisories for 80% of countries due to COVID
The U.S. Department of State announced it will be issuing 'Level 4: Do Not Travel' advisories for 80% of countries in the coming weeks

In a statement released on Monday, officials recommended that Americans 'reconsider all travel abroad'

Level 4 is generally reserved for war-torn countries or those that would be considered hostile to U.S. citizens such as Afghanistan and North Korea
It comes two weeks after the CDC issued new guidelines stating that people who are fully vaccinated can travel safely within the U.S and internationally

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... tries.html

An absolute joke. I don’t understand this move from the CDC/State Department one bit. The inconsistent messaging from authorities on COVID guidance has become beyond frustrating.


It also lessens their credibility each time. Don’t get me wrong I’m a pretty liberal guy but this has just become too much with very little rationale.
 
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chepos
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:44 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
Well....
Looks like you can kiss International travel goodbye, through at least the End of the Year:

Kiss goodbye to foreign travel: State Department plans 'Do Not Travel' advisories for 80% of countries due to COVID
The U.S. Department of State announced it will be issuing 'Level 4: Do Not Travel' advisories for 80% of countries in the coming weeks

In a statement released on Monday, officials recommended that Americans 'reconsider all travel abroad'

Level 4 is generally reserved for war-torn countries or those that would be considered hostile to U.S. citizens such as Afghanistan and North Korea
It comes two weeks after the CDC issued new guidelines stating that people who are fully vaccinated can travel safely within the U.S and internationally

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... tries.html


Not wanting to get political, but I will say this, this administration is going to slow walk lifting travel bans and easing international travel advisories. I also expect India to be added to the entry travel ban sooner rather than later. Expect to go into 2022 with bans and advisories.
Fly the Flag!!!!
 
travelin man
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Apr 20, 2021 5:22 am

Well we’re headed to Greece in August (Greece just announced they are opening up to vaccinated individuals by mid-May).

So the State Department can take their advice and shove it.
 
Tiredofhumanity
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Apr 20, 2021 6:22 am

I love it how the State Department is trying to apply the CDC guidelines to 130 other nations, when we have 50 unique sets of guidelines domestically ranging from Texas to Hawaii.

And is this really "unprecedented" compared to the mess last year? Getting tired of that word... :grumpy:
 
tphuang
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:09 pm

This is a going to be a problem for airlines. Regardless of what individual may think about their risk level, corporations are going to put in guidance for acceptable travel by their employees based on CDC guidance. They could tell their employees to not take any trips abroad or have to quarantine when they get back or have to quarantine if they came back from a country in the high risk group. Either way, people are not going to travel if they can't work for 2 weeks after they get back. Of course, if you are WFH, this might not be a problem.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:21 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
Well....
Looks like you can kiss International travel goodbye, through at least the End of the Year:

Kiss goodbye to foreign travel: State Department plans 'Do Not Travel' advisories for 80% of countries due to COVID
The U.S. Department of State announced it will be issuing 'Level 4: Do Not Travel' advisories for 80% of countries in the coming weeks

In a statement released on Monday, officials recommended that Americans 'reconsider all travel abroad'

Level 4 is generally reserved for war-torn countries or those that would be considered hostile to U.S. citizens such as Afghanistan and North Korea
It comes two weeks after the CDC issued new guidelines stating that people who are fully vaccinated can travel safely within the U.S and internationally

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... tries.html


I’ll file that under “I don’t give a crap”.

I’ve had Covid, I’ve been vaccinated, and I’ll go to any country that’ll have me. There are probably more Americans with that mindset now.

We have to shift away from this idea that it’s realistic to stop the virus from spreading unvaccinated people. We can’t. It would require worldwide coordination and you’d be more likely to flap your ears and fly to Mars.

If you feel unsafe, stay home. But forcing the rest of us to do that is no longer feasible. Best course of action is to get vaccinated and encourage others to do the same.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:28 pm

tphuang wrote:
This is a going to be a problem for airlines. Regardless of what individual may think about their risk level, corporations are going to put in guidance for acceptable travel by their employees based on CDC guidance. They could tell their employees to not take any trips abroad or have to quarantine when they get back or have to quarantine if they came back from a country in the high risk group. Either way, people are not going to travel if they can't work for 2 weeks after they get back. Of course, if you are WFH, this might not be a problem.


I don't think this changes much for most corporations, most corporate international travel wasn't going to even begin regardless, not until at least until the end of 2021 since there is too much risk of getting an employee stuck overseas with the border rules changing country to country within the span of days or weeks.
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
tphuang
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:37 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
This is a going to be a problem for airlines. Regardless of what individual may think about their risk level, corporations are going to put in guidance for acceptable travel by their employees based on CDC guidance. They could tell their employees to not take any trips abroad or have to quarantine when they get back or have to quarantine if they came back from a country in the high risk group. Either way, people are not going to travel if they can't work for 2 weeks after they get back. Of course, if you are WFH, this might not be a problem.


I don't think this changes much for most corporations, most corporate international travel wasn't going to even begin regardless, not until at least until the end of 2021 since there is too much risk of getting an employee stuck overseas with the border rules changing country to country within the span of days or weeks.


I'm not talking about corporate international travel. I'm talking about leisure international travel. A lot of people are going to get completely turned off by the news of 80% countries in do no travel list and not bother check which are the other 20% of countries. If they have the choice of domestic leisure vs international leisure, they will just pick domestic.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:40 pm

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
This is a going to be a problem for airlines. Regardless of what individual may think about their risk level, corporations are going to put in guidance for acceptable travel by their employees based on CDC guidance. They could tell their employees to not take any trips abroad or have to quarantine when they get back or have to quarantine if they came back from a country in the high risk group. Either way, people are not going to travel if they can't work for 2 weeks after they get back. Of course, if you are WFH, this might not be a problem.


I don't think this changes much for most corporations, most corporate international travel wasn't going to even begin regardless, not until at least until the end of 2021 since there is too much risk of getting an employee stuck overseas with the border rules changing country to country within the span of days or weeks.


I'm not talking about corporate international travel. I'm talking about leisure international travel. A lot of people are going to get completely turned off by the news of 80% countries in do no travel list and not bother check which are the other 20% of countries. If they have the choice of domestic leisure vs international leisure, they will just pick domestic.


Agree and disagree.

I think many will just stick with domestic for a while, but those who were willing to travel international in the short term arent going to be deterred. Most of the over cautious people would never have considered it anyway and those who would be willing to travel internationally now arent really the concerned type.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
Scarebus34
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Apr 21, 2021 12:22 am

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
This is a going to be a problem for airlines. Regardless of what individual may think about their risk level, corporations are going to put in guidance for acceptable travel by their employees based on CDC guidance. They could tell their employees to not take any trips abroad or have to quarantine when they get back or have to quarantine if they came back from a country in the high risk group. Either way, people are not going to travel if they can't work for 2 weeks after they get back. Of course, if you are WFH, this might not be a problem.


I don't think this changes much for most corporations, most corporate international travel wasn't going to even begin regardless, not until at least until the end of 2021 since there is too much risk of getting an employee stuck overseas with the border rules changing country to country within the span of days or weeks.


I'm not talking about corporate international travel. I'm talking about leisure international travel. A lot of people are going to get completely turned off by the news of 80% countries in do no travel list and not bother check which are the other 20% of countries. If they have the choice of domestic leisure vs international leisure, they will just pick domestic.

Most people don't care or pay attention to this nonsense.
 
MaxTrimm
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Apr 21, 2021 12:40 am

I’m quite surprised to see passenger numbers still doing quite well, albeit with a more muted growth (as we expected after Spring Break season). May be a bad question, but who IS doing the bulk of the flying right now? Spring Breaks are vastly over, business travel still remains negligible. Is it just new people traveling to see family each day after vaccination? I know these type of trips are common, but you usually only do one or two of them.

I know it’s not necessarily a question that can answered with data or graphs, but I would just like to hear some input. Who’s traveling right now?
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Apr 21, 2021 12:52 am

MaxTrimm wrote:
I’m quite surprised to see passenger numbers still doing quite well, albeit with a more muted growth (as we expected after Spring Break season). May be a bad question, but who IS doing the bulk of the flying right now? Spring Breaks are vastly over, business travel still remains negligible. Is it just new people traveling to see family each day after vaccination? I know these type of trips are common, but you usually only do one or two of them.

I know it’s not necessarily a question that can answered with data or graphs, but I would just like to hear some input. Who’s traveling right now?

People with fake work from home jobs can work from the beach or anywhere.
 
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chepos
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Apr 21, 2021 12:53 am

MaxTrimm wrote:
I’m quite surprised to see passenger numbers still doing quite well, albeit with a more muted growth (as we expected after Spring Break season). May be a bad question, but who IS doing the bulk of the flying right now? Spring Breaks are vastly over, business travel still remains negligible. Is it just new people traveling to see family each day after vaccination? I know these type of trips are common, but you usually only do one or two of them.

I know it’s not necessarily a question that can answered with data or graphs, but I would just like to hear some input. Who’s traveling right now?


Many people who have gotten the vaccine feel a sense of freedom, many did not travel last year so this year is open season. Fares are very reasonable at the moment so they’ll just get on a plane for the week or weekend just to get away. Some business travel
is happening, however, nothing meaningful yet. I have been vaxed and while I traveled last year I am itching to use my passport this summer (anywhere really at this point).
Fly the Flag!!!!
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:21 am

I'll elaborate antidotally and in correlation to what I've seen in the data that many on this thread have posted on what I've observed as I have been traveling pretty much every other week now since September. (75% for work / 25% leisure).

I didn't fly at all last summer, but when I started traveling in September it was generally a zombie-apocalypse like travel experience. The vast majority of passengers were solo or couples, heavily skewed toward 20s-50s. You didn't see families, you didn't see seniors/elderly, most travel parties were 1-2 people. The business travel you saw was "boots" not "suits" and very much people with operations/infrastructure related travel needs. It was pretty much that way most of the fall, with some uptick in some leisure travel oriented around long weekends to sun/beach markets.

Holiday travel you saw a brief two-week up-tick in some traveling families and leisure for people visiting families and going to sun/beach/ski markets. That was just a short blip of inelastic travel.

Jan-Feb were pretty similar to the fall in terms of sparse travel, but some sun/beach traffic but again more oriented to 20-50s solo and couples.

With where we were over the holidays and in the winter is when you saw the booking curve rapidily expand out for spring break related travel in March-April.
There was a step-function level of increase in flights and demand in early-March. Domestic leisure is pretty much back in April in sun/beach markets.

I'd say now domestic VFR and leisure is pretty much back. You see children/families and seniors/elderly traveling again. The airport experience of crowds, gate scrums, and bad behavior is approaching pre-covid like levels. We are past peak spring break travel but there is still plenty of residual sun/beach demand, particularly from those travelers not tied to K-12 school break schedules. April & May will still be strong in sun / beach markets as the weather is still cold in the Upper Midwest / Northeast (its snowing currently in Michigan). My buddy runs a business that caters to Florida snowbirds and said that this year he had many customers that stayed up north until they were vaccinated before going to Florida and have shifted their timeline. Instead of being in Florida from Jan-Apr, this year they are doing late March-end of May.

I think the amount of business travel going on currently is a bit under-reported. As the current domestic business travel is skewed toward individuals and small businesses that may not buy tickets through corporate travel sites/booking engines and may instead just by direct. There is noticably more people that "look" like business travelers in the airports these days (and in F). Seeing more suits and sport coats that I did months ago, but the business travel is still heavily weighted toward "boots" and not "suits".

I suspect actually we are going to see a step function increase in business travel for May & June, as a good portion of people are vaccinated and travel policies become a bit more liberal in the sense of moving from operations-critical to operations-essential type travel. I know with many of the clients I deal with directly and indirectly they are planning to start getting more of their field engineers/techs/support and other people back out to facilities starting really next month. People are wanting to travel for work and they are starting to become more okay with it. Still in the "go and do what you need to do" mindset and "get in and get out" but opening things up a bit. There is a backlog of projects that were put on hold in 2020 due to COVID that need to be done, and companies are starting to move forward again with those efforts and there is a lot more certainty than there was last year. Still awhile from opening things up for business travel for office work, in person meetings, training, internal meetings, conferences but taking a more pragmatic approach.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:23 am

Scarebus34 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

I don't think this changes much for most corporations, most corporate international travel wasn't going to even begin regardless, not until at least until the end of 2021 since there is too much risk of getting an employee stuck overseas with the border rules changing country to country within the span of days or weeks.


I'm not talking about corporate international travel. I'm talking about leisure international travel. A lot of people are going to get completely turned off by the news of 80% countries in do no travel list and not bother check which are the other 20% of countries. If they have the choice of domestic leisure vs international leisure, they will just pick domestic.

Most people don't care or pay attention to this nonsense.

CDC DO NOT TRAVEL list is just out.
It includes basically everywhere....

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... tices.html
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:58 am

.....and no one seriously considering travel cares....

Fwiw the local high school in my town in Michigan might as well be level 4.

The health and hygine theatre has reached a whole new level of stupid with this announcement that is just silly
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Apr 21, 2021 8:47 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
Scarebus34 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

I'm not talking about corporate international travel. I'm talking about leisure international travel. A lot of people are going to get completely turned off by the news of 80% countries in do no travel list and not bother check which are the other 20% of countries. If they have the choice of domestic leisure vs international leisure, they will just pick domestic.

Most people don't care or pay attention to this nonsense.

CDC DO NOT TRAVEL list is just out.
It includes basically everywhere....

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... tices.html


Well there goes my Summer trip I had planned to get a taste of that sweet Antarctica winter. I imagine this could have a devastating impact on bookings...

Image
https://twitter.com/FlyingHighRyan/stat ... 12225?s=20
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Apr 21, 2021 8:49 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
Scarebus34 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

I'm not talking about corporate international travel. I'm talking about leisure international travel. A lot of people are going to get completely turned off by the news of 80% countries in do no travel list and not bother check which are the other 20% of countries. If they have the choice of domestic leisure vs international leisure, they will just pick domestic.

Most people don't care or pay attention to this nonsense.

CDC DO NOT TRAVEL list is just out.
It includes basically everywhere....

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... tices.html


Ill be ignoring that, but thanks.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Apr 21, 2021 9:03 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
Scarebus34 wrote:
Most people don't care or pay attention to this nonsense.

CDC DO NOT TRAVEL list is just out.
It includes basically everywhere....

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... tices.html


Ill be ignoring that, but thanks.


Thank goodness the media hasn’t covered it. No one really knows about it so that will help.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:29 pm

AA net bookings now matching 2019 levels

Image
https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com/st ... 161b34c384
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:55 pm

Slide 8 in the link above is really the best summary of the current-state recovery trajectory I've seen....
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Apr 26, 2021 3:17 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Based on a recent UBS report on corporate booking activity, it looks like we'll see around 25% of normal corporate travel sometime next month, and likely finish 2021 40-50% of normal corporate travel.


Feeling quite confident in this outlook, pending this week's #'s we should hit 25% by end of this month:

Image
https://www2.arccorp.com/about-us/newsr ... l-25-2021/
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Apr 29, 2021 3:22 am

I'll be interested to see the data particularly around corporate bookings as we head into May.

I'm hearing (directly and indirectly) that some or the biggest business traveler buyers (e.g., big professional service companies) have been loosening travel restrictions a bit now and basically travel if clients are allowing/accepting and employees are willing to do so if there is a business need. Particularly now that many of those people have been vaccinated.

I came across some of this data which is a bit interesting
https://www.kastle.com/safety-wellness/ ... k-to-work/

Fascinating to see how office occupancy / badge swipes are 2-3x in the Texas markets (IAH, DFW, AUS) versus the rest of the country.
 
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UPlog
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:12 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I'll be interested to see the data particularly around corporate bookings as we head into May.


Announced today at United's corporate travel event, that it remains down 80% currently. They don't forecast it to improve much until offices are staffed (United itself is in work from home mode), likely into 2022. Some markets like SFO are especially down as tech sector adopted work from anywhere concept to such large scale.

More details in the United thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1459349
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PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:44 am

Right...makes sense. The data that MidwestIndy showed has corporate travel at about ~25%.
I suspect there is more actual corporate / business travel that skews toward small and/or private businesses that just book direct travel.

In my industries/clients (manufacturing) its almost business as usual as everyone obviously works on-site, in plants, and there is a need to do work on-site.
Hence why maybe my perspective is a bit skewed / biased.
 
tphuang
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:24 am

also depends on the region, I would imagine northeast is down more than 80%, but sunbelt region probably has seen quite a bit of recovery. The problem is that long haul business travel is going to be down for a lot longer than domestic business.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:30 am

UPlog wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I'll be interested to see the data particularly around corporate bookings as we head into May.


Announced today at United's corporate travel event, that it remains down 80% currently. They don't forecast it to improve much until offices are staffed (United itself is in work from home mode), likely into 2022. Some markets like SFO are especially down as tech sector adopted work from anywhere concept to such large scale.

More details in the United thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1459349


PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Right...makes sense. The data that MidwestIndy showed has corporate travel at about ~25%.
I suspect there is more actual corporate / business travel that skews toward small and/or private businesses that just book direct travel.

In my industries/clients (manufacturing) its almost business as usual as everyone obviously works on-site, in plants, and there is a need to do work on-site.
Hence why maybe my perspective is a bit skewed / biased.


I'd be careful using UA's or any one airlines data as an industry standard, their network is centered around airports/cities that had/have the tightest restrictions, ie corporations based in those areas are less likely to be the first ones traveling. I remember AA said late last year that in some of their small-mid sized stations in the south & midwest were seeing corporate travel in the 30-40% range already.

I'll be keeping an eye on these trends though.
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun May 02, 2021 3:42 pm

Traffic should take another step up over the next few weeks, we'll see more capacity come online after a lull in capacity growth in April, we've also seen strong bookings for May since March, and colleges will begin to let out for the summer this week:

Capacity wise for May
- DL unblocked middle seats
- WN will be at 82% of 2019 capacity
- AA ungrounding all aircraft

Bookings to the Hawaiian islands are popping right now:
"After a disappointingly slow start of the year with booking activity, we saw a material acceleration in February with bookings at roughly 80% of 2019 levels for travel in the second quarter. We saw another step change during the month of March, and have been running at over 110% of 2019 booking levels since then."
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-tran ... -call-tra/

International bookings are rapidly accelerating right now:
Image
Image
https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/repor ... page/RhnnB
https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

Business travel is still in a slow bookings climb, but I think we'll see some moves soon as offices begin to open up in the June-September time frame.
Image
https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/repor ... page/T4qIB
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon May 03, 2021 11:19 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Traffic should take another step up over the next few weeks, we'll see more capacity come online after a lull in capacity growth in April, we've also seen strong bookings for May since March, and colleges will begin to let out for the summer this week:


And here we go, busiest day of the pandemic yesterday:

1,626,962 people through TSA yesterday
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MaxTrimm
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon May 03, 2021 2:27 pm

Wow!
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon May 03, 2021 4:41 pm

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32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon May 03, 2021 4:51 pm

Bets for 2,000,000?! I vote may 28th
 
RicFlyer
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon May 03, 2021 6:45 pm

32andBelow wrote:
Bets for 2,000,000?! I vote may 28th


With the increase in capacity during May I too think we will hit 2,000,000 flyers over Memorial Day weekend if not before.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon May 03, 2021 7:50 pm

RicFlyer wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Bets for 2,000,000?! I vote may 28th


With the increase in capacity during May I too think we will hit 2,000,000 flyers over Memorial Day weekend if not before.


2M is definitely in the realm of possibility for Memorial Day, 2019 peak Memorial day weekend travel was 2.79M.

So you would only need a little over 70% of 2019 traffic to reach that 2M mark, and last Saturday was 68% of 2019.
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piedmontf284000
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon May 03, 2021 9:09 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
RicFlyer wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Bets for 2,000,000?! I vote may 28th


With the increase in capacity during May I too think we will hit 2,000,000 flyers over Memorial Day weekend if not before.


2M is definitely in the realm of possibility for Memorial Day, 2019 peak Memorial day weekend travel was 2.79M.

So you would only need a little over 70% of 2019 traffic to reach that 2M mark, and last Saturday was 68% of 2019.


I am going to say we will fall just short memorial day weekend but not by much, 1.9 million and change will be my guess. International travel is the only thing dragging down the numbers at this point. That will be the whole summer unfortunately but I think we will see domestic numbers exceed those of 2019 during parts of the summer.
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue May 04, 2021 2:47 pm

Congrats to Wyoming for positive growth vs. 2019 in April:

Image

Annoying there is an is an error in the Miami numbers, but still seeing very positive trends:
Image

https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#
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Scarebus34
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue May 04, 2021 3:46 pm

If you don't think business travel will bounce back... you're going to be surprised.

Dimon also said clients told him that in cases where JPMorgan lost business to rivals, it was because “bankers from the other guys visited, and ours didn’t. Well, that’s a lesson.”
“I’m about to cancel all my Zoom meetings,” Dimon said. “I’m done with it.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/04/jamie-d ... eback.html
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue May 04, 2021 4:12 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Congrats to Wyoming for positive growth vs. 2019 in April:

Image

Annoying there is an is an error in the Miami numbers, but still seeing very positive trends:
Image

https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#


What is the website for that 2nd chart? Id like to see Houston's numbers.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue May 04, 2021 4:27 pm

Scarebus34 wrote:
If you don't think business travel will bounce back... you're going to be surprised.

Dimon also said clients told him that in cases where JPMorgan lost business to rivals, it was because “bankers from the other guys visited, and ours didn’t. Well, that’s a lesson.”
“I’m about to cancel all my Zoom meetings,” Dimon said. “I’m done with it.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/04/jamie-d ... eback.html

Working through zoom is totally fake news. It worked to keep the business going but it isn’t going to work to grow the business.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue May 04, 2021 5:35 pm

I am traveling this week for work and we are getting our full team together with one of our clients for the first time in over 14 months.
It’s going to be like a like a reunion.
Honestly everyone is super excited to get back on the road (and out of the house) at least for this week.
Everyone was collectively over having a multi day working session on zoom
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue May 04, 2021 11:47 pm

Scarebus34 wrote:
If you don't think business travel will bounce back... you're going to be surprised.

Dimon also said clients told him that in cases where JPMorgan lost business to rivals, it was because “bankers from the other guys visited, and ours didn’t. Well, that’s a lesson.”
“I’m about to cancel all my Zoom meetings,” Dimon said. “I’m done with it.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/04/jamie-d ... eback.html


Wait! But didn't Bill Gates say last year that over 50% of business travel was permanently extinct? ;)
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/17/coronav ... -term.html

As many of us said last year, this is a tale as old as time...."Even the CEO of Zoom Says He Has Zoom Fatigue"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/even-the-c ... 1620151459

Business travel always returns back to its previous levels, even if sometimes it takes longer than other times. There are numerous studies about this phenomena, but yet every time a downturn hits, people still proclaim business travel is coming to an end.

LAXdude1023 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Congrats to Wyoming for positive growth vs. 2019 in April:

Image

Annoying there is an is an error in the Miami numbers, but still seeing very positive trends:
Image

https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#


What is the website for that 2nd chart? Id like to see Houston's numbers.


They only update the the markets listed above.
https://forwardkeys.com/global-recovery ... -power-bi/
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