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32andBelow
Posts: 5742
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jun 18, 2021 6:51 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Looks like 2M today or Sunday, 1,975,189 yesterday:

Started up my pre-covid usual Monday-Thursday travel again, as the client wants our team back onsite again, feels good to be back in the air. Seeing more and more suits and ties in the airport each week.
Image
Image
Image

https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#
https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/visitor/daily- ... er-counts/

This chart, and the Kastle numbers, show very starkly the difference in economic activity in the "Free States", versus states where the politics of Covid are "challenging".
Now add in this report from Sky News, that says vaxxed people should NOT be flying VLH, and fall/winter could get even more interesting.

Regardless, I am of the opinion that International and most cruising are done until Spring 2022, at least, and that at least of the US Majors will be forced into BK after the end of PPP.

all the states are free states now
 
Scarebus34
Posts: 764
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 10:54 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jun 18, 2021 7:07 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Looks like 2M today or Sunday, 1,975,189 yesterday:

Started up my pre-covid usual Monday-Thursday travel again, as the client wants our team back onsite again, feels good to be back in the air. Seeing more and more suits and ties in the airport each week.
Image
Image
Image

https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#
https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/visitor/daily- ... er-counts/

This chart, and the Kastle numbers, show very starkly the difference in economic activity in the "Free States", versus states where the politics of Covid are "challenging".
Now add in this report from Sky News, that says vaxxed people should NOT be flying VLH, and fall/winter could get even more interesting.

Regardless, I am of the opinion that International and most cruising are done until Spring 2022, at least, and that at least of the US Majors will be forced into BK after the end of PPP.

If you're still thinking a major US airline is going to declare bankruptcy, you're misinformed. It will not happen. Europe is reopening - there will be a nice recovery in TATL traffic from July and onward. Obviously nowhere close to where it was. Canada will likely reopen in July. LATAM continues to prove strong. TPAC will be the last to recover - likely in early 2022.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 1828
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jun 18, 2021 7:13 pm

Scarebus34 wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Looks like 2M today or Sunday, 1,975,189 yesterday:

Started up my pre-covid usual Monday-Thursday travel again, as the client wants our team back onsite again, feels good to be back in the air. Seeing more and more suits and ties in the airport each week.
Image
Image
Image

https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#
https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/visitor/daily- ... er-counts/

This chart, and the Kastle numbers, show very starkly the difference in economic activity in the "Free States", versus states where the politics of Covid are "challenging".
Now add in this report from Sky News, that says vaxxed people should NOT be flying VLH, and fall/winter could get even more interesting.

Regardless, I am of the opinion that International and most cruising are done until Spring 2022, at least, and that at least of the US Majors will be forced into BK after the end of PPP.

If you're still thinking a major US airline is going to declare bankruptcy, you're misinformed. It will not happen. Europe is reopening - there will be a nice recovery in TATL traffic from July and onward. Obviously nowhere close to where it was. Canada will likely reopen in July. LATAM continues to prove strong. TPAC will be the last to recover - likely in early 2022.

I heard that same exact thing on A.net at this same time last summer.
Color me skepitical. I could very well be wrong, but I don't think so.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 9009
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jun 18, 2021 7:34 pm

When looking at the current state as the near-term projections over the next 6-9 months you have to look at it through a few different lenses.
On one hand its easy to look at the recovery to-date and use the pure passenger stats like TSA screenings, segments of the demand that have recovered or are exceeded, and selective positive facts that the airlines have released and thing they they are back to normal and all is find and dandy.

On the other side, there are some big impediments out there, and yes some segments are going to be severely depressed for some period of time.

The biggest challenge right now is yields. Revenue is lagging by a sizable amount primarily because of the passenger / traffic mix, the lack of international, and the lack of business travel. Demand stimulation has been occuring too in many cases, not to mention there is a non-insignificant amount of leisure / VFR traffic currently is discressionary travelers flying that are flush with stimulus money and beyond that not working who have free time to travel.

The airlines are going to be shifting from a "passenger recovery" to a "yield recovery" here soon and not chasing demand with low fares. We have sort of reach an equilibrium on capacity / demand where more capacity isn't really stimulating additional demand, and at the high-level they have gotten load factors about where they want to be.

Things are exponentially better than where were 12 months ago. Lets be real, no one knew WTF was going on last summer on how things with the virus would play out. Sure high-level scientists and the like were, but many of our political and corporate leaders where making all sorts of planning assumptions with a very unclear recovery scenarios.
 
Scarebus34
Posts: 764
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 10:54 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jun 18, 2021 7:34 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
Scarebus34 wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
This chart, and the Kastle numbers, show very starkly the difference in economic activity in the "Free States", versus states where the politics of Covid are "challenging".
Now add in this report from Sky News, that says vaxxed people should NOT be flying VLH, and fall/winter could get even more interesting.

Regardless, I am of the opinion that International and most cruising are done until Spring 2022, at least, and that at least of the US Majors will be forced into BK after the end of PPP.

If you're still thinking a major US airline is going to declare bankruptcy, you're misinformed. It will not happen. Europe is reopening - there will be a nice recovery in TATL traffic from July and onward. Obviously nowhere close to where it was. Canada will likely reopen in July. LATAM continues to prove strong. TPAC will be the last to recover - likely in early 2022.

I heard that same exact thing on A.net at this same time last summer.
Color me skepitical. I could very well be wrong, but I don't think so.

Germany just announced they will re-open to Americans in 2 days - that's a big boost to TATL right there.
 
mcogator
Posts: 600
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:51 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jun 18, 2021 7:49 pm

MaxTrimm wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
RicFlyer wrote:

And very limited European travel. I travel again tomorrow and I expect all flights will be full and the airports packed.


Domestic travel is at ~80% of 2019 (probably higher if you factor in domestic travel that is really connecting onto int'l flights), LFs are essentially at 2019 levels, 9 states have more flights scheduled next month than in 2019.

.....Yet, airports refuse to open more of their restaurants, so you can end up waiting a ridiculously long time to get a simple meal. Which sucks for connecting passengers, especially if you are getting off a long flight since many airlines don't have their full food options on board yet, or are just beginning to roll them back out again.

I wouldn’t say it’s the airports fault that restaurants are closed. There’s a tremendour labor shortage in service industry jobs.

Starting July 11, Californians on unemployment will actually have to apply to jobs in order to keep their benefits. 25 states have said they are ending the federal $300/week federal unemployment benefits. Hopefully that in turn will make people go back to work
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5742
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jun 18, 2021 9:12 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
When looking at the current state as the near-term projections over the next 6-9 months you have to look at it through a few different lenses.
On one hand its easy to look at the recovery to-date and use the pure passenger stats like TSA screenings, segments of the demand that have recovered or are exceeded, and selective positive facts that the airlines have released and thing they they are back to normal and all is find and dandy.

On the other side, there are some big impediments out there, and yes some segments are going to be severely depressed for some period of time.

The biggest challenge right now is yields. Revenue is lagging by a sizable amount primarily because of the passenger / traffic mix, the lack of international, and the lack of business travel. Demand stimulation has been occuring too in many cases, not to mention there is a non-insignificant amount of leisure / VFR traffic currently is discressionary travelers flying that are flush with stimulus money and beyond that not working who have free time to travel.

The airlines are going to be shifting from a "passenger recovery" to a "yield recovery" here soon and not chasing demand with low fares. We have sort of reach an equilibrium on capacity / demand where more capacity isn't really stimulating additional demand, and at the high-level they have gotten load factors about where they want to be.

Things are exponentially better than where were 12 months ago. Lets be real, no one knew WTF was going on last summer on how things with the virus would play out. Sure high-level scientists and the like were, but many of our political and corporate leaders where making all sorts of planning assumptions with a very unclear recovery scenarios.

Have you looks at kayak recently? They aren’t giving tickets away anymore. Fares are skyrocketing
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 1828
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Jun 19, 2021 2:07 am

32andBelow wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
When looking at the current state as the near-term projections over the next 6-9 months you have to look at it through a few different lenses.
On one hand its easy to look at the recovery to-date and use the pure passenger stats like TSA screenings, segments of the demand that have recovered or are exceeded, and selective positive facts that the airlines have released and thing they they are back to normal and all is find and dandy.

On the other side, there are some big impediments out there, and yes some segments are going to be severely depressed for some period of time.

The biggest challenge right now is yields. Revenue is lagging by a sizable amount primarily because of the passenger / traffic mix, the lack of international, and the lack of business travel. Demand stimulation has been occuring too in many cases, not to mention there is a non-insignificant amount of leisure / VFR traffic currently is discressionary travelers flying that are flush with stimulus money and beyond that not working who have free time to travel.

The airlines are going to be shifting from a "passenger recovery" to a "yield recovery" here soon and not chasing demand with low fares. We have sort of reach an equilibrium on capacity / demand where more capacity isn't really stimulating additional demand, and at the high-level they have gotten load factors about where they want to be.

Things are exponentially better than where were 12 months ago. Lets be real, no one knew WTF was going on last summer on how things with the virus would play out. Sure high-level scientists and the like were, but many of our political and corporate leaders where making all sorts of planning assumptions with a very unclear recovery scenarios.

Have you looks at kayak recently? They aren’t giving tickets away anymore. Fares are skyrocketing

Now do September/October…
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 9009
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Jun 19, 2021 2:40 am

The yield management practices are
All over the place depending on the market. Fares into certain outdoor leisure oriented markets are through the roof in July.

The adage of make your hay while the sun shines for the summer. They are starting to push the envelope more on fares now versus where we were in March-may.
Other yield management practices are starting come into play such as keep fares high on certain hub connects to keep inventory to feed international flights and also hold inventory for closer in business traveler bookings.

I do suspect there will be some good air fare deals out there this fall. We will likely reach an inflection where seasonality in leisure / vrf dips and business demand still is in the recovery phase.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5742
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Jun 19, 2021 4:54 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
When looking at the current state as the near-term projections over the next 6-9 months you have to look at it through a few different lenses.
On one hand its easy to look at the recovery to-date and use the pure passenger stats like TSA screenings, segments of the demand that have recovered or are exceeded, and selective positive facts that the airlines have released and thing they they are back to normal and all is find and dandy.

On the other side, there are some big impediments out there, and yes some segments are going to be severely depressed for some period of time.

The biggest challenge right now is yields. Revenue is lagging by a sizable amount primarily because of the passenger / traffic mix, the lack of international, and the lack of business travel. Demand stimulation has been occuring too in many cases, not to mention there is a non-insignificant amount of leisure / VFR traffic currently is discressionary travelers flying that are flush with stimulus money and beyond that not working who have free time to travel.

The airlines are going to be shifting from a "passenger recovery" to a "yield recovery" here soon and not chasing demand with low fares. We have sort of reach an equilibrium on capacity / demand where more capacity isn't really stimulating additional demand, and at the high-level they have gotten load factors about where they want to be.

Things are exponentially better than where were 12 months ago. Lets be real, no one knew WTF was going on last summer on how things with the virus would play out. Sure high-level scientists and the like were, but many of our political and corporate leaders where making all sorts of planning assumptions with a very unclear recovery scenarios.

Have you looks at kayak recently? They aren’t giving tickets away anymore. Fares are skyrocketing

Now do September/October…

September/October is shoulder season pre covid too. And high yield doesn’t book 90 days advance
 
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5742
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Jun 20, 2021 6:53 pm

How many people fly to Canada? What will that account for when Canada decides the vaccines work?
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 755
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Jun 20, 2021 6:55 pm

32andBelow wrote:
Have you looks at kayak recently? They aren’t giving tickets away anymore. Fares are skyrocketing


Not quite. About a month ago, peak summer fares free fell. I pointed this out in real time on another thread — for example, you could travel DL MSP-LAX for less than RT$150 most days, ATL-LAX for RT$250, ATL/DTW-Florida for RT$100-150, etc. And that’s after airlines like DL pulled back capacity! These are historically low peak summer fares — even lower than what you could find at the same point last year (!). As we’re approaching the peak period, fares are going up (especially as the advance purchase window clears), but there’s still plenty of deals available (outside the 4th of July).

Besides that point... even if leisure fares are climbing, traditional business fares aren’t. E.g. to get the lowest fare, historically you needed a RT purchase, Saturday night stay, etc. I can buy a LAX-BNA ticket on DL for RT$209 (basic economy) for a M-F trip in July, and $279 in “refundable main.” First class is $497. Two years ago, the lowest fare for M-F was in the mid-500s, without a Saturday night. Now, I can travel up front for less than that (with two bags).

We’ve got a long way to go...
 
freakyrat
Posts: 2406
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Jun 20, 2021 7:50 pm

This is for MidwestIndy. Mike Daigle the Mgr. of the South Bend International Airport said daily enplanements are approaching the 2019 levels. Mostly leisure flying but business flyers are starting to add to the mix. I just did a check on the CRJ700 and CRJ900 flying on American to DFW and CLT on the busiest flying days of Monday and Friday and morning flights have few seats to no seats in Economy and few left in First. Afternoon Flights are sold out. I'm sure it is the same on Delta and United. I'm surprised Delta cut back the noon CRJ900 flight back to a CRJ200. There is a lot of pent up demand for flights as people that have been couped up for a year want to get out and visit relatives etc.
 
joeblow10
Posts: 677
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Jun 20, 2021 7:52 pm

I have noticed fares are beginning to creep up again, but I also think the airlines are beginning to realize that external constraints (rental cars, hotels, etc.) are really digging in to the potential customer base with all this capacity and so they are keeping fares relatively low. Doubt they are seeing a ton of close in booking. I am constantly seeing plenty of open seats into spots I was worried about getting a seat into this summer out west… but there are no cars to be had anywhere and it’s over $300 a night even for modest hotel chains in vacation spots.

Just like you said - we’ve got a long way to go. Don’t get me wrong, I wasn’t expecting to cross 2mil daily screenings consistently this summer and I’m happy to eat my crow and say I was wrong… but until those high yield customers are back, and there is more car capacity back, for example, I don’t think you’re going to see financial excellence.
 
freakyrat
Posts: 2406
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Jun 20, 2021 9:39 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
I have noticed fares are beginning to creep up again, but I also think the airlines are beginning to realize that external constraints (rental cars, hotels, etc.) are really digging in to the potential customer base with all this capacity and so they are keeping fares relatively low. Doubt they are seeing a ton of close in booking. I am constantly seeing plenty of open seats into spots I was worried about getting a seat into this summer out west… but there are no cars to be had anywhere and it’s over $300 a night even for modest hotel chains in vacation spots.

Just like you said - we’ve got a long way to go. Don’t get me wrong, I wasn’t expecting to cross 2mil daily screenings consistently this summer and I’m happy to eat my crow and say I was wrong… but until those high yield customers are back, and there is more car capacity back, for example, I don’t think you’re going to see financial excellence.


I agree with you on the Rental Cars. Until those rates come down more people are going to opt to drive to destinations less than 8 hours
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5742
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Jun 20, 2021 11:59 pm

freakyrat wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
I have noticed fares are beginning to creep up again, but I also think the airlines are beginning to realize that external constraints (rental cars, hotels, etc.) are really digging in to the potential customer base with all this capacity and so they are keeping fares relatively low. Doubt they are seeing a ton of close in booking. I am constantly seeing plenty of open seats into spots I was worried about getting a seat into this summer out west… but there are no cars to be had anywhere and it’s over $300 a night even for modest hotel chains in vacation spots.

Just like you said - we’ve got a long way to go. Don’t get me wrong, I wasn’t expecting to cross 2mil daily screenings consistently this summer and I’m happy to eat my crow and say I was wrong… but until those high yield customers are back, and there is more car capacity back, for example, I don’t think you’re going to see financial excellence.


I agree with you on the Rental Cars. Until those rates come down more people are going to opt to drive to destinations less than 8 hours

My buddy just put a 20 year old pick up on Turo for 75 a day and it’s booked solid. He initially did it as a joke
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 1828
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Jun 21, 2021 10:12 pm

Canada and Mexico border restrictions just extended until the 21st of July.
https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/ar ... gh-july-21
 
Scarebus34
Posts: 764
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 10:54 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:26 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
Canada and Mexico border restrictions just extended until the 21st of July.
https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/ar ... gh-july-21

Mexico border restrictions have zero effect on air travel.
 
 
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Midwestindy
Topic Author
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Jun 28, 2021 11:58 pm

Midwestindy wrote:


Corporate moving quickly towards 40%....would love to find a breakdown by region. I'd imagine the Central + Southern US are at or above 50% at this point.

Upgrade list for my flight out of ORD today was 41 passengers deep.

Image
https://www2.arccorp.com/about-us/newsr ... e-27-2021/
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jul 01, 2021 11:48 am

Beautiful sight to see:

Image
Image
Image
https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

Rental car inventory still abysmal:

[img]blob:https://imgur.com/00fe2043-ccf2-46cb-b8b5-f382268584af[/img]
 
Western727
Posts: 2099
Joined: Wed Jan 03, 2007 12:38 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jul 01, 2021 12:35 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Rental car inventory still abysmal:


Thanks, Midwestindy, for the data! The link for the rental car inventory image doesn't work for me, though...can we get the corrected one, please? TIA.
 
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Midwestindy
Topic Author
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jul 01, 2021 7:04 pm

Western727 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Rental car inventory still abysmal:


Thanks, Midwestindy, for the data! The link for the rental car inventory image doesn't work for me, though...can we get the corrected one, please? TIA.


Took this picture at ORD a week or so ago:

Image
 
LCDFlight
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:20 pm

AFAIK July 1 2021 was the first day the USA had more TSA passengers than the same weekday of 2019. Likely due to a different timing of the July 4th holiday (comparing Thursday, July 1 2021 to Thursday, July 4 2019). But still, this seems to be the first time a day has exceeded pre Covid. We are making progress.
 
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Midwestindy
Topic Author
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jul 09, 2021 4:47 pm

 
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DanielsBrawley
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jul 14, 2021 12:49 am

Wow...this is great information. Well done to the guys keeping this up. I just left Hong Kong after 18 years and I've never seen data like this for our local market. Do the airlines voluntarily submit their own ticketing data to these organizations? Seems like it would be private information but maybe I've been long too long! :) Cheers mates...
 
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Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 6419
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jul 16, 2021 4:08 am

DanielsBrawley wrote:
Wow...this is great information. Well done to the guys keeping this up. I just left Hong Kong after 18 years and I've never seen data like this for our local market. Do the airlines voluntarily submit their own ticketing data to these organizations? Seems like it would be private information but maybe I've been long too long! :) Cheers mates...


Yeah I am not updating this thread as often since leisure travel took off, and corporate travel is steadily returning. It was a bit more interesting this time last year.

To answer your question, yes airlines voluntarily submit their own ticketing data to organizations like A4A (Airlines for America). It's not too surprising though, revenue management departments within airlines have tons access to data from other airlines down to a pretty granular level. For example, AA would know how many Boeing business travelers/day are flying UA, AS, e.t.c. on ORD-SEA. So it's not like disclosing info that is shared in this thread would harm them.

Glad you are enjoying the content.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1994
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jul 16, 2021 3:48 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
DanielsBrawley wrote:
Wow...this is great information. Well done to the guys keeping this up. I just left Hong Kong after 18 years and I've never seen data like this for our local market. Do the airlines voluntarily submit their own ticketing data to these organizations? Seems like it would be private information but maybe I've been long too long! :) Cheers mates...


Yeah I am not updating this thread as often since leisure travel took off, and corporate travel is steadily returning. It was a bit more interesting this time last year.

To answer your question, yes airlines voluntarily submit their own ticketing data to organizations like A4A (Airlines for America). It's not too surprising though, revenue management departments within airlines have tons access to data from other airlines down to a pretty granular level. For example, AA would know how many Boeing business travelers/day are flying UA, AS, e.t.c. on ORD-SEA. So it's not like disclosing info that is shared in this thread would harm them.

Glad you are enjoying the content.


Thank you so much for all your posts the past few months! I really appreciated it. Wouldn’t mind if you kept them going!
 
continental004
Posts: 463
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2014 11:53 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Jul 17, 2021 12:21 am

freakyrat wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
I have noticed fares are beginning to creep up again, but I also think the airlines are beginning to realize that external constraints (rental cars, hotels, etc.) are really digging in to the potential customer base with all this capacity and so they are keeping fares relatively low. Doubt they are seeing a ton of close in booking. I am constantly seeing plenty of open seats into spots I was worried about getting a seat into this summer out west… but there are no cars to be had anywhere and it’s over $300 a night even for modest hotel chains in vacation spots.

Just like you said - we’ve got a long way to go. Don’t get me wrong, I wasn’t expecting to cross 2mil daily screenings consistently this summer and I’m happy to eat my crow and say I was wrong… but until those high yield customers are back, and there is more car capacity back, for example, I don’t think you’re going to see financial excellence.


I agree with you on the Rental Cars. Until those rates come down more people are going to opt to drive to destinations less than 8 hours


Or people can use transit.
 
Jetport
Posts: 318
Joined: Thu Apr 02, 2015 4:23 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Jul 17, 2021 3:56 pm

continental004 wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
I have noticed fares are beginning to creep up again, but I also think the airlines are beginning to realize that external constraints (rental cars, hotels, etc.) are really digging in to the potential customer base with all this capacity and so they are keeping fares relatively low. Doubt they are seeing a ton of close in booking. I am constantly seeing plenty of open seats into spots I was worried about getting a seat into this summer out west… but there are no cars to be had anywhere and it’s over $300 a night even for modest hotel chains in vacation spots.

Just like you said - we’ve got a long way to go. Don’t get me wrong, I wasn’t expecting to cross 2mil daily screenings consistently this summer and I’m happy to eat my crow and say I was wrong… but until those high yield customers are back, and there is more car capacity back, for example, I don’t think you’re going to see financial excellence.


I agree with you on the Rental Cars. Until those rates come down more people are going to opt to drive to destinations less than 8 hours


Or people can use transit.


It is virtually impossible to use public transit for most outdoor leisure activities in the US or Canada. If you are visiting a National Park or going hiking you need a vehicle. Whenever I read posts about not needing rental cars I have to assume they are from folks who only visit cities or large one point destinations (for example beach or ski resorts). A friend of mine canceled his Glacier National Park trip because of no affordable rental cars.
 
continental004
Posts: 463
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2014 11:53 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Jul 17, 2021 4:31 pm

Jetport wrote:
continental004 wrote:
freakyrat wrote:

I agree with you on the Rental Cars. Until those rates come down more people are going to opt to drive to destinations less than 8 hours


Or people can use transit.


It is virtually impossible to use public transit for most outdoor leisure activities in the US or Canada. If you are visiting a National Park or going hiking you need a vehicle. Whenever I read posts about not needing rental cars I have to assume they are from folks who only visit cities or large one point destinations (for example beach or ski resorts). A friend of mine canceled his Glacier National Park trip because of no affordable rental cars.


Which is a shame. The USA has no many incredible national parks but there is hardly any public transit access to them, something that really needs to be improved.

Although Glacier is an exception; it actually has its own Amtrak station.
 
freakyrat
Posts: 2406
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Jul 17, 2021 6:35 pm

continental004 wrote:
Jetport wrote:
continental004 wrote:

Or people can use transit.


It is virtually impossible to use public transit for most outdoor leisure activities in the US or Canada. If you are visiting a National Park or going hiking you need a vehicle. Whenever I read posts about not needing rental cars I have to assume they are from folks who only visit cities or large one point destinations (for example beach or ski resorts). A friend of mine canceled his Glacier National Park trip because of no affordable rental cars.


Which is a shame. The USA has no many incredible national parks but there is hardly any public transit access to them, something that really needs to be improved.

Although Glacier is an exception; it actually has its own Amtrak station.


Glacier is a magnificent park but to see it in all of it's splendor you really need a vehicle to drive through it.

Personally I just got back from Phoenix from the Airliners International Collectables Show and I didn't need a car in Tempe as I used Uber for 1 day and walked to what I needed close by the hotel.
 
joeblow10
Posts: 677
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Jul 17, 2021 6:59 pm

continental004 wrote:
Jetport wrote:
continental004 wrote:

Or people can use transit.


It is virtually impossible to use public transit for most outdoor leisure activities in the US or Canada. If you are visiting a National Park or going hiking you need a vehicle. Whenever I read posts about not needing rental cars I have to assume they are from folks who only visit cities or large one point destinations (for example beach or ski resorts). A friend of mine canceled his Glacier National Park trip because of no affordable rental cars.


Which is a shame. The USA has no many incredible national parks but there is hardly any public transit access to them, something that really needs to be improved.

Although Glacier is an exception; it actually has its own Amtrak station.


I mean the “front gate” accessibility of the parks is one thing (I.e. taking Amtrak to Glacier), but unless you plan on backpacking thru the entire vast span of the park, how else are you to get around other than personal vehicle? I don’t really see how that can be improved - even if every park implements a Zion type shuttle bus system, that still creates hefty constraints wherever people go to get on the bus itself.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 1828
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Jul 17, 2021 9:08 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Western727 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Rental car inventory still abysmal:


Thanks, Midwestindy, for the data! The link for the rental car inventory image doesn't work for me, though...can we get the corrected one, please? TIA.


Took this picture at ORD a week or so ago:

Image

Yes, rental car demand is higher this year, especially in out-of-season Florida and the Southeast, but Big airports like ORD without a single car in the garage is NOT all of that unusual at this time of the year, from the July 4th Holiday through School start the first week of August. That is, and always has been, peak vacation time.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 1828
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Jul 17, 2021 9:16 pm

freakyrat wrote:
continental004 wrote:
Jetport wrote:

It is virtually impossible to use public transit for most outdoor leisure activities in the US or Canada. If you are visiting a National Park or going hiking you need a vehicle. Whenever I read posts about not needing rental cars I have to assume they are from folks who only visit cities or large one point destinations (for example beach or ski resorts). A friend of mine canceled his Glacier National Park trip because of no affordable rental cars.


Which is a shame. The USA has no many incredible national parks but there is hardly any public transit access to them, something that really needs to be improved.

Although Glacier is an exception; it actually has its own Amtrak station.


Glacier is a magnificent park but to see it in all of it's splendor you really need a vehicle to drive through it.

Personally I just got back from Phoenix from the Airliners International Collectables Show and I didn't need a car in Tempe as I used Uber for 1 day and walked to what I needed close by the hotel.

I will make the airliners show next year, this year just did not meet the schedule. It is time to start passing my personal collections on to others to enjoy.
 
freakyrat
Posts: 2406
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Jul 17, 2021 9:58 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
continental004 wrote:

Which is a shame. The USA has no many incredible national parks but there is hardly any public transit access to them, something that really needs to be improved.

Although Glacier is an exception; it actually has its own Amtrak station.


Glacier is a magnificent park but to see it in all of it's splendor you really need a vehicle to drive through it.

Personally I just got back from Phoenix from the Airliners International Collectables Show and I didn't need a car in Tempe as I used Uber for 1 day and walked to what I needed close by the hotel.

I will make the airliners show next year, this year just did not meet the schedule. It is time to start passing my personal collections on to others to enjoy.


It is in Chicago at the Hilton Rosemont June 23-Jun 25
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 5157
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Jul 18, 2021 12:08 pm

Glacier has an extensive internal shuttle system. It has been one of the features for years. From Seattle you can book a roomette in the afternoon on the Empire Builder one day, arrive at the park in the next morning, shuttle around the park for two days including the Highway to the Sun, catch the evening train back to Seattle, enjoy breakfast and go to work at almost the normal time. The shuttle system requires reservations this year, and is stressed with an expected record number of users. https://www.nps.gov/glac/planyourvisit/shuttles.htm One of my kids and his wife did it.
 
freakyrat
Posts: 2406
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Jul 18, 2021 6:43 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Glacier has an extensive internal shuttle system. It has been one of the features for years. From Seattle you can book a roomette in the afternoon on the Empire Builder one day, arrive at the park in the next morning, shuttle around the park for two days including the Highway to the Sun, catch the evening train back to Seattle, enjoy breakfast and go to work at almost the normal time. The shuttle system requires reservations this year, and is stressed with an expected record number of users. https://www.nps.gov/glac/planyourvisit/shuttles.htm One of my kids and his wife did it.


I didn't know about the shuttle system since it's been awhile that I had visited Glacier park.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 9009
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Jul 19, 2021 2:07 am

I will be curious to see what happens to the corporate bookings over the next 4-6 weeks.

For many companies, they are either well into their "return to work / return to office" phases.
Some just jumped it and said effectively in June / July that they are fully open, while taking a bit of an optionality over the remainder of the summer.
Others still are sticking to their September timelines.

I know that some of the biggest business travel accounts - large professional service firms / consultancies have effectively removed any of their travel restrictions / pre-approvals for travel domestically for client-service or sales related travel. Their are taking the approach that "if your client(s) are in the office / on-site, then you should be on-site".
There is a push to rationalize / reduce travel, especially for one-off short meetings, but they are all about co-locating and getting back with their clients.

I anticipate we should see a step-function up in corporate travel bookings over the next several weeks, especially as people starting booking September and beyond travel.

The trade shows / professional organizations I am a part of are starting to schedule and conduct in-person events again later this fall. Starting to get invites to events in October. They are doing hybrid and expecting smaller turn-out but starting to show up on the calendar again.

I can say that traveling last week in / out of DTW & ORD, starting to see a lot more company logo shirts and backpacks again and a lot more laptop usage in the Skyclubs than in the June timeframe. I was in the Loop last week in Chicago, and its still noticably quieter but there are definetely signs of life and people in the offices again. We are still in peak summer vacation period, but I will be honest, most of the people I know that were doing a decent amount of travel before are yearning to get back out there and meet with clients / teams again, unless they hated it before and don't want to go back.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 755
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Jul 19, 2021 2:27 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I will be curious to see what happens to the corporate bookings over the next 4-6 weeks.

For many companies, they are either well into their "return to work / return to office" phases.
Some just jumped it and said effectively in June / July that they are fully open, while taking a bit of an optionality over the remainder of the summer.
Others still are sticking to their September timelines.

I know that some of the biggest business travel accounts - large professional service firms / consultancies have effectively removed any of their travel restrictions / pre-approvals for travel domestically for client-service or sales related travel. Their are taking the approach that "if your client(s) are in the office / on-site, then you should be on-site".
There is a push to rationalize / reduce travel, especially for one-off short meetings, but they are all about co-locating and getting back with their clients.

I anticipate we should see a step-function up in corporate travel bookings over the next several weeks, especially as people starting booking September and beyond travel.

The trade shows / professional organizations I am a part of are starting to schedule and conduct in-person events again later this fall. Starting to get invites to events in October. They are doing hybrid and expecting smaller turn-out but starting to show up on the calendar again.

I can say that traveling last week in / out of DTW & ORD, starting to see a lot more company logo shirts and backpacks again and a lot more laptop usage in the Skyclubs than in the June timeframe. I was in the Loop last week in Chicago, and its still noticably quieter but there are definetely signs of life and people in the offices again. We are still in peak summer vacation period, but I will be honest, most of the people I know that were doing a decent amount of travel before are yearning to get back out there and meet with clients / teams again, unless they hated it before and don't want to go back.


Anybody who hasn’t returned to the office yet, likely won’t do so until they’re forced - and the surge in infections will give them an excuse. I doubt the number of people in the office will grow between now and Labor Day.

NYC, Chicago, Boston, DC, LA, etc. aren’t expected to see half their workers return to the office until after the New Year at the earliest. Places like Atlanta, Nashville, Texas, etc. haven’t see any significant return to the office in recent months (all are around 50%).

So, there’s clearly going to be a ceiling on business travel for awhile.
 
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adambrau
Posts: 381
Joined: Sun Mar 25, 2007 11:44 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Jul 19, 2021 3:19 am

I work for a top three legacy European airline at JFK and all I can say is that the flights are packed in all cabins. Everyday. And the front is just as full as the back, so I’d say business travel is back. And wealthy vaccinated Americans are too. Let’s wait until the USA opens to vaccinated Europeans. Quite the bounce back!
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 755
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Jul 19, 2021 3:28 am

adambrau wrote:
I work for a top three legacy European airline at JFK and all I can say is that the flights are packed in all cabins. Everyday. And the front is just as full as the back, so I’d say business travel is back. And wealthy vaccinated Americans are too. Let’s wait until the USA opens to vaccinated Europeans. Quite the bounce back!


That may be true for a handful of touristy destinations during the heart of peak summer travel, but definitely doesn’t reflect the industry as a whole.

In the fall and winter, for example, several top European airlines are selling incredibly cheap J fares - RT$1500 to CDG, FRA, LHR, etc. from LAX, NYC, etc.
 
Scarebus34
Posts: 764
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 10:54 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Jul 19, 2021 4:39 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
adambrau wrote:
I work for a top three legacy European airline at JFK and all I can say is that the flights are packed in all cabins. Everyday. And the front is just as full as the back, so I’d say business travel is back. And wealthy vaccinated Americans are too. Let’s wait until the USA opens to vaccinated Europeans. Quite the bounce back!


That may be true for a handful of touristy destinations during the heart of peak summer travel, but definitely doesn’t reflect the industry as a whole.

In the fall and winter, for example, several top European airlines are selling incredibly cheap J fares - RT$1500 to CDG, FRA, LHR, etc. from LAX, NYC, etc.


I don't see those fares anywhere..
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 755
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Jul 19, 2021 4:57 am

Scarebus34 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
adambrau wrote:
I work for a top three legacy European airline at JFK and all I can say is that the flights are packed in all cabins. Everyday. And the front is just as full as the back, so I’d say business travel is back. And wealthy vaccinated Americans are too. Let’s wait until the USA opens to vaccinated Europeans. Quite the bounce back!


That may be true for a handful of touristy destinations during the heart of peak summer travel, but definitely doesn’t reflect the industry as a whole.

In the fall and winter, for example, several top European airlines are selling incredibly cheap J fares - RT$1500 to CDG, FRA, LHR, etc. from LAX, NYC, etc.


I don't see those fares anywhere..


Search and you’ll find them. They’re plastered all over deal sites.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6725
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Jul 19, 2021 9:12 am

Scarebus34 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
adambrau wrote:
I work for a top three legacy European airline at JFK and all I can say is that the flights are packed in all cabins. Everyday. And the front is just as full as the back, so I’d say business travel is back. And wealthy vaccinated Americans are too. Let’s wait until the USA opens to vaccinated Europeans. Quite the bounce back!


That may be true for a handful of touristy destinations during the heart of peak summer travel, but definitely doesn’t reflect the industry as a whole.

In the fall and winter, for example, several top European airlines are selling incredibly cheap J fares - RT$1500 to CDG, FRA, LHR, etc. from LAX, NYC, etc.


I don't see those fares anywhere..

I am not sure about 1500 but I see a lot of sub 2500 rt to lhr. Things are really cheap right now
 
User avatar
adambrau
Posts: 381
Joined: Sun Mar 25, 2007 11:44 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jul 20, 2021 5:48 am

We have P/J/W/Y. Many tickets in P are $20k r/t. It's always sold out. I think you can figure out which airline I work for ;)
 
Scarebus34
Posts: 764
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 10:54 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:29 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
Scarebus34 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:

That may be true for a handful of touristy destinations during the heart of peak summer travel, but definitely doesn’t reflect the industry as a whole.

In the fall and winter, for example, several top European airlines are selling incredibly cheap J fares - RT$1500 to CDG, FRA, LHR, etc. from LAX, NYC, etc.


I don't see those fares anywhere..


Search and you’ll find them. They’re plastered all over deal sites.

LH was having a two day sale... but it's over. Most fares are 2500+... certainly not widely available as you implied. TAP and Icelandair have always had low J fares, not sure that's an indication of anything.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 755
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:00 pm

Scarebus34 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
Scarebus34 wrote:

I don't see those fares anywhere..


Search and you’ll find them. They’re plastered all over deal sites.

LH was having a two day sale... but it's over. Most fares are 2500+... certainly not widely available as you implied. TAP and Icelandair have always had low J fares, not sure that's an indication of anything.


There’s been perpetual sales, and of course several airlines match, so yes it was widespread. Nonetheless, fares are still considerably lower than usual.
 

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