Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
travelin man
Posts: 3267
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2000 10:04 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Aug 10, 2021 12:33 pm

FLresident wrote:
travelin man wrote:
travelin man wrote:
Flightaware has good data on the change in aircraft movements 2019 vs. 2020 vs. 2021. I've consolidated some of the top airports to see the change between 2019 and 2021 from the latest day's worth of data (June 13th). I excluded cargo heavy airports such as MEM, SDF, and ANC, because those would more likely reflect cargo demand, not passenger demand. Not too many surprises, with the top "recovered" airports in the Sun and Mountain destinations, and the least recovered airports basically SFO and the Northeast.

Again, this is the change in aircraft movements (arrivals + departures), but it looks like it follows a lot of the passenger data that has come out.

AIRPORT % Change in Aircraft Movements (2021 vs 2019)
TUS 124%
HNL 119%
SNA 118%
RNO 117%
SJU 112%
BOI 107%
SLC 102%
TPA 101%

AUS 100%
PHX 99%
ABQ 99%
BNA 98%
OKC 98%
MIA 96%
DEN 95%
CLT 94%
MCO 94%
LAS 93%
SAT 93%
DFW 92%
FLL 92%

IND 88%
MDW 86%
IAH 86%
MKE 86%
SMF 85%
SEA 84%
CVG 83%

MSY 79%
JAX 79%
ATL 78%
SAN 77%
MSP 76%
RDU 75%
ORD 75%
MCI 75%
STL 75%
LAX 75%
PIT 75%
CMH 74%
OAK 74%
DTW 73%
PHL 73%
BWI 73%
CLE 72%
BUF 70%

PDX 69%
IAD 68%
SJC 67%
JFK 65%

BOS 59%
DCA 59%
EWR 59%
SFO 53%


Updated Flightaware data as of July 25th (now including more airports):
AIRPORT % Change in Aircraft Movements (2021 vs 2019)
RSW 143%
LGB 133%
COS 130%
LIH 126%
OGG 119%
HNL 119%
KOA 115%
BOI 112%
RNO 112%
SNA 110%
SJU 109%
SAV 109%
PBI 107%
AUS 106%
GEG 106%
FAT 105%
OKC 105%
SLC 104%
PHX 104%
IND 102%
CHS 102%
ELP 102%
GRR 101%
MIA 100%

BNA 98%
TUS 98%
DAL 97%
ABQ 97%
TPA 97%
CLT 97%
OMA 96%
DSM 96%
HOU 96%
TUL 95%
LAS 95%
BHM 95%
DEN 94%
SAT 93%
ONT 93%
FLL 93%
MCO 92%
PWM 92%
DFW 92%
IAH 92%
MKE 91%
GSP 91%

MDW 87%
SMF 85%
BDL 85%
BUR 85%
IAD 84%
SEA 84%
ALB 83%
ORD 82%
CVG 82%
MSY 81%
JAX 80%
RDU 80%

BUF 79%
CLE 78%
LAX 77%
CMH 77%
PIT 76%
ATL 76%
STL 76%
OAK 76%
MSP 75%
SAN 75%
BWI 75%
MCI 74%
PVD 74%
PHL 73%
DTW 73%

PDX 67%
SJC 67%
BOS 67%
JFK 66%
EWR 65%
DCA 63%

SFO 57%
LGA 50%

Hawaii, Florida, Texas, Mountain West/Desert Southwest (+SNA and LGB surprisingly) still leading aircraft movement recovery. NYC/BOS/Bay Area still lagging very badly, even accounting for the continued decrease in longhaul international flights. (PDX is also surprising to me in their lack of recovery.)


I am curious about these numbers.
SLC May: 92.1%
SLC June: 93.9%

BNA May: 83.4%
BNA June: 92.4%

TPA May: 87.7%
TPA June: 93.2%

FLL May: 85.8%
FLL June: 91.5%

AUS May: 71.7%
AUS June:

What explains the discrepancy between the movements and the reported passenger numbers for these months? Given the trend, the July numbers should be higher for each. But AUS for example had movements at 106% while the most recent passenger numbers (May) are still a bit lower than 2019.

These were all obtained from the airport websites.
https://www.tampaairport.com/facts-stat ... financials
http://www.austintexas.gov/department/a ... go-traffic
https://www.broward.org/Airport/Busines ... stics.aspx
https://flynashville.com/nashville-airp ... nd-reports
https://slcairport.com/about-the-airpor ... tatistics/


Movements and passengers don’t correspond on a 1:1 basis. Things like plane size, load factor, and movement type (commercial vs cargo vs general aviation) inevitably come into play.

That said, the FlightAware data seems to align on the trends in terms of which airports have recovered the most from a pax perspective.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 6524
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Aug 10, 2021 12:37 pm

32andBelow wrote:
I’ve never been convinced this fall is gonna be good for airlines. With school going back and business travel still depressed who is gonna be flying? October is already the slowest month of the year normally


Not sure where this originated, but October is not the slowest month for air travel by any stretch. Fall Break....
 
SESGDL
Posts: 3068
Joined: Sat Jan 13, 2001 6:25 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:29 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
I’ve never been convinced this fall is gonna be good for airlines. With school going back and business travel still depressed who is gonna be flying? October is already the slowest month of the year normally


Not sure where this originated, but October is not the slowest month for air travel by any stretch. Fall Break....


Yeah, I thought that title historically went to January.

Jeremy
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5893
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Aug 10, 2021 2:31 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
I’ve never been convinced this fall is gonna be good for airlines. With school going back and business travel still depressed who is gonna be flying? October is already the slowest month of the year normally


Not sure where this originated, but October is not the slowest month for air travel by any stretch. Fall Break....

What is fall break? Literally never heard of it
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 9118
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Aug 10, 2021 2:47 pm

Post-holiday January through mid February is the slowest travel period of the year.
Its deep winter for the northern part of the country, international travel its lowest point of the year, and many have come off of vacations / time-off over the holidays.
The period of early December between Thanksgiving and Christmas is also typically slow, and to a lesser extent early November.

"Fall break" is the travel industry term for the bump of travel in early-October.
The first 2-3 weeks of October are actually fairly strong travel period, actually stronger than most of September.
There is a 3-day weekend for most federal/government employees for Columbus Day, many universities and some K-12 schools give a long weekend "fall break", fall color related travel, and the weather is still generally nice / comfortable for much of the country and visiting most major cities. Also typically (in a non-COVID year) strong for business travel, and a lot of conventions / large meeting events happen in October.

Second half of August and early-September always falls of a cliff a bit with families with children starting the new school year, getting into the new routine, and a lot of people with kids try to avoid business travel to be around for the "first day of school" or open houses, etc.
 
airplaneboy
Posts: 821
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 11:59 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Aug 11, 2021 7:26 pm

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/south ... 1628696346

Southwest says close in bookings are declining while cancelations are increasing.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6639
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Aug 11, 2021 7:33 pm

airplaneboy wrote:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/southwest-wont-be-the-last-airline-to-issue-a-profit-warning-wall-street-says-11628696346

Southwest says close in bookings are declining while cancelations are increasing.


Yes, but it looked pretty minor. They shifted their projections from -12-17% of 2019 to -15-20% of 2019. Not great I know but not that bad either.
 
AmericanAir88
Posts: 321
Joined: Wed May 27, 2020 8:59 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Aug 11, 2021 7:37 pm

Will AA, DL, and WN be subjected to lower bookings following the announcement that they will not require employees to be vaccinated?

On the other side, will UA see a positive gain from the requirement?
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Aug 11, 2021 7:47 pm

AmericanAir88 wrote:
Will AA, DL, and WN be subjected to lower bookings following the announcement that they will not require employees to be vaccinated?

On the other side, will UA see a positive gain from the requirement?

I kind of doubt it.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 9118
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Aug 11, 2021 10:41 pm

I think we are starting to see the cracks in the fall projections, where they were projecting on more robust demand recovery in corporate and international (mainly TATL) that has now going sideways with the real and perceived threat of the variant(s).

So at what point to airlines start putting aircraft back into storage until March 2022?
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 791
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Aug 11, 2021 11:13 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
airplaneboy wrote:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/southwest-wont-be-the-last-airline-to-issue-a-profit-warning-wall-street-says-11628696346

Southwest says close in bookings are declining while cancelations are increasing.


Yes, but it looked pretty minor. They shifted their projections from -12-17% of 2019 to -15-20% of 2019. Not great I know but not that bad either.


It's pretty significant. Two or three weeks ago WN claimed that it continued to see bookings increase, despite the increase in COVID infections. Now they're acknowledging that's no longer the case. DL and UA uploaded fall schedule changes over the weekend that reflected a very small drop in capacity; ATL even grew (and has a significant number of domestic widebody flights). Now the status quo has changed. Too bad - this forum truly wanted to believe that we'd be smashing traffic records this quarter.
 
seatown1
Posts: 27
Joined: Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:33 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Aug 11, 2021 11:37 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I think we are starting to see the cracks in the fall projections, where they were projecting on more robust demand recovery in corporate and international (mainly TATL) that has now going sideways with the real and perceived threat of the variant(s).

So at what point to airlines start putting aircraft back into storage until March 2022?


I doubt we see any aircraft put back into long term storage unless we see some sort of large dropoff like we saw at the very beginning of the pandemic. All eyes at this point will be turned to the summer of 2022, which still has the potential to see traffic levels almost or even fully recovered. All the fleet and manpower decisions will likely be made with that in mind, unless we see a really steep decline. I would bet that we see traffic levels between 60 and 80 percent this winter with the peaks around the heavier leisure periods and the holidays. Business travel is not likely to move much from the 50% mark in the near future unless this current wave subsides relatively quickly. The good news on that front is, with more companies starting to require vaccination, it likely means that they're committed to a return to the office. Why bother with all the headaches involved with that if work from home is the future? All the airlines have a ton of liquidity, a slowdown in momentum this winter isn't ideal, but at this point, it's far from a death blow.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6875
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Aug 11, 2021 11:42 pm

I think domestic business is seeing a momentary dip, but it will keep going up slowly. International business is a whole different story.

To me, the domestic and Caribbean leisure are going to be above 2019 level for next spring/summer. TATL leisure will remain weak all winter.

I maintain that if domestic business is at 70% of 2019 level by summer of 2022, it will be a disaster for the big 3.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 9118
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Aug 11, 2021 11:46 pm

At some point there is a trade-off of flying A330s and B777s domestically at 60% LF and domestic leisure yields just to keep frames active and crews current versus short-term parking for 3-6 months in short-term storage. I bet we see some stuff get parked, especially if heavy checks are due in the next couple of months.

TATL is going to be in the toilet until next spring.
 
Pi7472000
Posts: 366
Joined: Fri Apr 27, 2018 3:26 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 12, 2021 12:31 am

airplaneboy wrote:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/southwest-wont-be-the-last-airline-to-issue-a-profit-warning-wall-street-says-11628696346

Southwest says close in bookings are declining while cancelations are increasing.



I am not surprised. Places like Texas and FL and other places across the South are running out of hospital beds. People are beginning to realize the Delta variant is out of control and travel this fall and winter may not be safe and are rebooking or deciding not to travel.
 
baje427
Posts: 990
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 12, 2021 12:53 am

Given the way the Delta variant is going I can see another mass layoff and slow down for the industry. I was shocked airlines were making purchases on new aircraft.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 10480
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 12, 2021 1:22 am

seatown1 wrote:
I would bet that we see traffic levels between 60 and 80 percent this winter with the peaks around the heavier leisure periods and the holidays.


Is that 60-80% passenger numbers, RPMs, or revenue? No major U.S. carrier is going to book a profit at 60% of respective 2019 quarter revenue when the Payroll Support funds end.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 1946
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 12, 2021 2:51 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
airplaneboy wrote:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/southwest-wont-be-the-last-airline-to-issue-a-profit-warning-wall-street-says-11628696346

Southwest says close in bookings are declining while cancelations are increasing.


Yes, but it looked pretty minor. They shifted their projections from -12-17% of 2019 to -15-20% of 2019. Not great I know but not that bad either.


It's pretty significant. Two or three weeks ago WN claimed that it continued to see bookings increase, despite the increase in COVID infections. Now they're acknowledging that's no longer the case. DL and UA uploaded fall schedule changes over the weekend that reflected a very small drop in capacity; ATL even grew (and has a significant number of domestic widebody flights). Now the status quo has changed. Too bad - this forum truly wanted to believe that we'd be smashing traffic records this quarter.

I hate to break it to everyone, but we are never going back to THE BEFORE TIME. Politics is already seeing to that.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 1946
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 12, 2021 2:52 am

Pi7472000 wrote:
airplaneboy wrote:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/southwest-wont-be-the-last-airline-to-issue-a-profit-warning-wall-street-says-11628696346

Southwest says close in bookings are declining while cancelations are increasing.



I am not surprised. Places like Texas and FL and other places across the South are running out of hospital beds. People are beginning to realize the Delta variant is out of control and travel this fall and winter may not be safe and are rebooking or deciding not to travel.

The beds are being used for RSV, not Covid, and this happens every year around this time, at back-to-school.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 791
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 12, 2021 3:21 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
Pi7472000 wrote:
airplaneboy wrote:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/southwest-wont-be-the-last-airline-to-issue-a-profit-warning-wall-street-says-11628696346

Southwest says close in bookings are declining while cancelations are increasing.



I am not surprised. Places like Texas and FL and other places across the South are running out of hospital beds. People are beginning to realize the Delta variant is out of control and travel this fall and winter may not be safe and are rebooking or deciding not to travel.

The beds are being used for RSV, not Covid, and this happens every year around this time, at back-to-school.


Sometimes facts help. Texas and Florida both report that nearly 40% of ICU beds are being occupied with COVID patients, of which 97% are not vaccinated. In recent years, average hospital bed occupancy during August has floated around 2/3; this year, both states are reporting that the number is near 100%, with numerous hospitals creating additional beds by improvising (e.g. turning break rooms into patient rooms).

You know, things that happen every year around this time. :bouncy: :crazy:
 
sldispatcher
Posts: 637
Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2007 3:55 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 12, 2021 3:45 am

Just a matter of time before the spike starts to drop off again. Thankfully, calmer heads are prevailing on local and state levels. Please note that hospital bed availability has been an issue for years and years. Working as a hospitalist in a small town for 6 years, I often ran into diversions/no beds available for patients needing transfer. This is as much a manpower issue as it is bed space. A hospital may be "full" because it can't get nurses and staff to open a whole floor or wing that will go unused.
The airlines should stay the course, adjust as needed, but no one in my circle is going back to buying a full scale shutdown again.
 
User avatar
IceCream
Posts: 295
Joined: Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:46 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 12, 2021 4:02 am

sldispatcher wrote:
Just a matter of time before the spike starts to drop off again. Thankfully, calmer heads are prevailing on local and state levels. Please note that hospital bed availability has been an issue for years and years. Working as a hospitalist in a small town for 6 years, I often ran into diversions/no beds available for patients needing transfer. This is as much a manpower issue as it is bed space. A hospital may be "full" because it can't get nurses and staff to open a whole floor or wing that will go unused.
The airlines should stay the course, adjust as needed, but no one in my circle is going back to buying a full-scale shutdown again.

Totally agree! Covid is a concern but at the same time, we have to start recovery soon. We cannot do this forever. I still have lots of hope for S22.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 791
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 12, 2021 4:29 am

sldispatcher wrote:
Just a matter of time before the spike starts to drop off again. Thankfully, calmer heads are prevailing on local and state levels. Please note that hospital bed availability has been an issue for years and years. Working as a hospitalist in a small town for 6 years, I often ran into diversions/no beds available for patients needing transfer. This is as much a manpower issue as it is bed space. A hospital may be "full" because it can't get nurses and staff to open a whole floor or wing that will go unused.
The airlines should stay the course, adjust as needed, but no one in my circle is going back to buying a full scale shutdown again.


The aforementioned hospitals may be short staffed, but that's not the reason they're adding temporary beds -- they're doing so because the available ones are full. And the percentage of occupied hospital beds has dropped for years... as has the overall number of hospital beds.

Again, if people would embrace facts and put the politics aside, we would've (largely) overcome this by now.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6639
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 12, 2021 4:33 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:

Yes, but it looked pretty minor. They shifted their projections from -12-17% of 2019 to -15-20% of 2019. Not great I know but not that bad either.


It's pretty significant. Two or three weeks ago WN claimed that it continued to see bookings increase, despite the increase in COVID infections. Now they're acknowledging that's no longer the case. DL and UA uploaded fall schedule changes over the weekend that reflected a very small drop in capacity; ATL even grew (and has a significant number of domestic widebody flights). Now the status quo has changed. Too bad - this forum truly wanted to believe that we'd be smashing traffic records this quarter.

I hate to break it to everyone, but we are never going back to THE BEFORE TIME. Politics is already seeing to that.


Literally no one knows what things will look like this time next month much less at the end of the pandemic. You nor anyone else here can “break” anything to anyone because no one can predict the future.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6639
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 12, 2021 4:43 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
Pi7472000 wrote:


I am not surprised. Places like Texas and FL and other places across the South are running out of hospital beds. People are beginning to realize the Delta variant is out of control and travel this fall and winter may not be safe and are rebooking or deciding not to travel.

The beds are being used for RSV, not Covid, and this happens every year around this time, at back-to-school.


Sometimes facts help. Texas and Florida both report that nearly 40% of ICU beds are being occupied with COVID patients, of which 97% are not vaccinated. In recent years, average hospital bed occupancy during August has floated around 2/3; this year, both states are reporting that the number is near 100%, with numerous hospitals creating additional beds by improvising (e.g. turning break rooms into patient rooms).

You know, things that happen every year around this time. :bouncy: :crazy:


Yes facts do help.

The Covid hospitalization rates in Texas and Florida are not comparable. The rate in Texas is half of what it is in Florida. 33 per 100,000 vs. 66 per 100,000.

As it relates to air travel Florida is still booming. Looking at load factors for the next few days to Florida and Texas, the flights are PACKED. The TSA precheck numbers havent dropped.

Maybe its time to for people to stop making predictions and speaking for everyone and just admit that Covid and human nature both are complex issues and we dont know what is going to happen from day to day.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 6524
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 12, 2021 2:57 pm

32andBelow wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
I’ve never been convinced this fall is gonna be good for airlines. With school going back and business travel still depressed who is gonna be flying? October is already the slowest month of the year normally


Not sure where this originated, but October is not the slowest month for air travel by any stretch. Fall Break....

What is fall break? Literally never heard of it


Outside of holidays, and summer/spring break, it is the busiest period in the year.

As someone mentioned most universities have fall break during October, as do many school districts (from a quick scan: Chicago, Minneapolis, Atlanta, DC, NYC, e.t.c). For some schools it's just a 3 day weekend, others it is longer, but it tends to be a fairly busy period for many families traveling since it is the only break from the summer up until Thanksgiving.

The slowest months for are travel are September, January, & February
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 6524
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 12, 2021 3:03 pm

 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:30 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Outside of holidays, and summer/spring break, it is the busiest period in the year.
Lol. Outside of almost half the year, it is the busiest time of year.
 
Exeiowa
Posts: 426
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:49 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:43 pm

It quite clear the delta variant has changed the calculus. I was hopeful with vaccine roll out that things were going to be normal. Its clear that the delta mutation and future possible mutations are going to be changing the onward trajectory. My company has re-imposed mask mandates and delayed peoples returning to offices in Texas and Florida, but not in Ohio. I am going to a vendor training course next week, and have opted to drive instead of fly because of the current situation. The training has been moved from the companies site to a near by hotel. (presumably to reduce the chance of infecting their staff) this week. I do not think that they would be planning an in person training event if they were deciding now, and I do not think I would have been permission to go if I had been requesting it this week. If the company I work for is typical I would expect that travel demand will be dipping for a bit.

Also what is clear, no matter what happens next there is less appetite to impose restrictions so it will be up to individuals and companies to choose how to respond. So in the case of a worsening situation the reduction in flying will not be as severe, but the problem will not go away quickly.

I am fully expecting a version of the virus to appear that is not controlled by the vaccine, just my general impression from being a scientist with no actual specific knowledge of this area, what that does for everything I have no idea, because people will act differently. Trying to wait it out did not work because there was insufficient buy in for it to succeed. The vaccination route not popular enough. So I am rather gloomy about this being resolved very soon, when not long ago I thought it would be approaching an end now. If thats the case we will end up with suppressed demand for some time.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 6524
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:08 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Outside of holidays, and summer/spring break, it is the busiest period in the year.
Lol. Outside of almost half the year, it is the busiest time of year.


The black line represents peak October, you can see that it is much larger than half in normal years

Which is why I'm confused where the narrative originated that October is a slow month.
Image
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:56 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Outside of holidays, and summer/spring break, it is the busiest period in the year.
Lol. Outside of almost half the year, it is the busiest time of year.


The black line represents peak October, you can see that it is much larger than half in normal years

Which is why I'm confused where the narrative originated that October is a slow month.
Image

I never claimed October is slow, I just found your phrasing where you eliminated almost half the year (~3 months of summer, ~1 month of holidays, ~1.5 months of spring break) humorous. Looking at the chart, October looks similar to Spring Break (although over a shorter time period, early October is pretty slow still). What is that big peak halfway between 4/1 and 7/1? Mother's Day? It looks to late to be Easter.

As a side note, that chart is horrible to read. The dates with the years on the bottom plus the fact it spans more than a year with some of the same data repeating itself is a dissaster.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 6524
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Aug 13, 2021 5:48 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
Lol. Outside of almost half the year, it is the busiest time of year.


The black line represents peak October, you can see that it is much larger than half in normal years

Which is why I'm confused where the narrative originated that October is a slow month.
Image

I never claimed October is slow, I just found your phrasing where you eliminated almost half the year (~3 months of summer, ~1 month of holidays, ~1.5 months of spring break) humorous. Looking at the chart, October looks similar to Spring Break (although over a shorter time period, early October is pretty slow still). What is that big peak halfway between 4/1 and 7/1? Mother's Day? It looks to late to be Easter.

As a side note, that chart is horrible to read. The dates with the years on the bottom plus the fact it spans more than a year with some of the same data repeating itself is a dissaster.


Summer in my eyes is Memorial day-the first week in August, holidays are the ~2 weeks of Christmas + 1 week of Thanksgiving, and Spring Break is really 1 month (2nd week of March-early April)

That peak you are talking about is Memorial day weekend. Easter is not a big travel weekend for most of the country.
Image

FYI, the chart is not mine, and was made not for the purpose of comparing peaks and valleys of travel but measuring tsa numbers through this year, although I converted the axis now for this purpose so it is easier to read.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =796230218
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5893
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Aug 13, 2021 6:02 pm

It’s cus of where I live. October is absolutely dead where January isn’t. I wasn’t aware that people traveled so much in October in other places.
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Aug 13, 2021 7:20 pm

Midwestindy wrote:

Summer in my eyes is Memorial day-the first week in August, holidays are the ~2 weeks of Christmas + 1 week of Thanksgiving, and Spring Break is really 1 month (2nd week of March-early April)

Fair enough. I would say Spring Break depends on when Easter falls as many schools plan their break around Easter, but those time frames are good enough for general purposes. The thing that strikes me about that graph is that air travel doesn't really vary THAT much season to season. There are definite lulls right after Labor Day, Thanksgiving, and New Year's, but day of the week seems much more variable.

Midwestindy wrote:
FYI, the chart is not mine, and was made not for the purpose of comparing peaks and valleys of travel but measuring tsa numbers through this year, although I converted the axis now for this purpose so it is easier to read.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =796230218
Better, it would be better still without the year on the date on the horizontal axis.
 
Pi7472000
Posts: 366
Joined: Fri Apr 27, 2018 3:26 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:09 am

Florida and Texas account for 40 percent of all U.S. COVID hospitalizations. These states will have a decrease in travel. I wonder if we need air travel restrictions to hotspots like this.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/13/health/u ... index.html
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5893
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:25 am

Pi7472000 wrote:
Florida and Texas account for 40 percent of all U.S. COVID hospitalizations. These states will have a decrease in travel. I wonder if we need air travel restrictions to hotspots like this.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/13/health/u ... index.html

Will they tho? People aren’t gonna go to places with restrictions like Vegas.
 
joeblow10
Posts: 700
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 14, 2021 3:34 am

I’ll be interested to see what comes of the potential for mandatory vaccines and air travel like Canada announced this morning. Or if airlines, perhaps specifically UA, begin mandating it themselves.

Agree with them or not, 48%+ of Americans still aren’t fully vaccinated. Cutting them off from travel would certainly kill pax numbers for a good period of time… even if all 48% suddenly went rushing to get the shot (and most certainly, many still won’t). And before you go saying those 48% don’t travel… remember it’s almost all leisure travel right now and a decent chunk of pax are almost assuredly unvaccinated. I’d argue in fact that most of the folks traveling right now probably *are less likely* to be vaccinated since they don’t care about COVID, while the more cautious folks remain at home.

The Delta wave should be largely passed in 4-6 weeks time … it’s anybody’s guess what happens after that
Last edited by joeblow10 on Sat Aug 14, 2021 3:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6639
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 14, 2021 3:37 am

Pi7472000 wrote:
Florida and Texas account for 40 percent of all U.S. COVID hospitalizations. These states will have a decrease in travel. I wonder if we need air travel restrictions to hotspots like this.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/13/health/u ... index.html


Texas and Florida havent had any decreases in travel and frankly saying they will is just wishful thinking on your part (I base that on your post history). Looking at loads to both states over the next week, flights are PACKED.

As for air travel restrictions, you see there is this thing, its called the Constitution. It guarantees all Americans freedom of movement within its borders. You cannot prevent Americans from moving between different states.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 5276
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:26 am

airplaneboy wrote:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/southwest-wont-be-the-last-airline-to-issue-a-profit-warning-wall-street-says-11628696346

Southwest says close in bookings are declining while cancelations are increasing.


We are in unusual times. I think we will see mid oct- mod Nov shockingly low. I know historically we see jan-feb traffic the lowest but thats cause international dips so much then. We are gonna be dealing with mostly domestic leisure still in Jan and Feb. I think fall will be the huge decline this year. Variants are picking up, people feel like /hope covid is ending soon so wait, summer travel is over and alot are saving the "risk"for the holidays. The spirit cancels news I think turned alot of causual flyers off from wanting to travel too. Alot of those people still seemed to expect empty planes. We are all experienced and know that was kind of a one time thing but some people I've talked too seem to think that's a new normal and really are not looking to fly after this summer and their one big trip. I think we are gonna see people really hold off on this fall. Alot of people are simply gonna save the "risk" of flying till the holidays or would rather fly during the peak winter to Florida and stuff again.
 
JibberJim
Posts: 211
Joined: Tue Nov 08, 2016 1:33 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 14, 2021 11:41 am

joeblow10 wrote:
The Delta wave should be largely passed in 4-6 weeks time … it’s anybody’s guess what happens after that


I think countrywide that is unlikely, even in the UK, no restrictions and already delta been around for a good time, the delta exit wave from restrictions is taking longer than that to work through, regionally it goes through an area in that, but successive areas get it extending the whole country wave longer. And any restrictions lengthen it (of course it may need lengthening if your hospitals need it) For tourist travel, I guess it will depend on if it ending in a destination is enough to give confidence to travel to the destination.
 
Pi7472000
Posts: 366
Joined: Fri Apr 27, 2018 3:26 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:52 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
Pi7472000 wrote:
Florida and Texas account for 40 percent of all U.S. COVID hospitalizations. These states will have a decrease in travel. I wonder if we need air travel restrictions to hotspots like this.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/13/health/u ... index.html


Texas and Florida havent had any decreases in travel and frankly saying they will is just wishful thinking on your part (I base that on your post history). Looking at loads to both states over the next week, flights are PACKED.

As for air travel restrictions, you see there is this thing, its called the Constitution. It guarantees all Americans freedom of movement within its borders. You cannot prevent Americans from moving between different states.


Actually states like Maine required quarantine for people from certain states. It is legal and other states could place restrictions on travel to places like Texas and FL which account for 40 percent of U.S. COVID hospitalizations. COVID and the Delta variant have had impact to travel in those regions as WN shows.
 
User avatar
SumChristianus
Posts: 707
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:00 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:42 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

The black line represents peak October, you can see that it is much larger than half in normal years

Which is why I'm confused where the narrative originated that October is a slow month.
Image

I never claimed October is slow, I just found your phrasing where you eliminated almost half the year (~3 months of summer, ~1 month of holidays, ~1.5 months of spring break) humorous. Looking at the chart, October looks similar to Spring Break (although over a shorter time period, early October is pretty slow still). What is that big peak halfway between 4/1 and 7/1? Mother's Day? It looks to late to be Easter.

As a side note, that chart is horrible to read. The dates with the years on the bottom plus the fact it spans more than a year with some of the same data repeating itself is a dissaster.


Summer in my eyes is Memorial day-the first week in August, holidays are the ~2 weeks of Christmas + 1 week of Thanksgiving, and Spring Break is really 1 month (2nd week of March-early April)

That peak you are talking about is Memorial day weekend. Easter is not a big travel weekend for most of the country.
Image

FYI, the chart is not mine, and was made not for the purpose of comparing peaks and valleys of travel but measuring tsa numbers through this year, although I converted the axis now for this purpose so it is easier to read.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =796230218


I made some changes to the chart although there are still some formatting difficulties with my current knowledge of Google Sheets
Image
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 10480
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 14, 2021 3:59 pm

Pi7472000 wrote:
Actually states like Maine required quarantine for people from certain states. It is legal and other states could place restrictions on travel to places like Texas and FL which account for 40 percent of U.S. COVID hospitalizations.


You are incorrect. States can place quarantine requirements on arriving interstate travelers but they can't exclude out-of-state travelers. This is affirmed in mulitple U.S. Supreme Court cases going back more than 150 years.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6639
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:00 pm

Pi7472000 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
Pi7472000 wrote:
Florida and Texas account for 40 percent of all U.S. COVID hospitalizations. These states will have a decrease in travel. I wonder if we need air travel restrictions to hotspots like this.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/13/health/u ... index.html


Texas and Florida havent had any decreases in travel and frankly saying they will is just wishful thinking on your part (I base that on your post history). Looking at loads to both states over the next week, flights are PACKED.

As for air travel restrictions, you see there is this thing, its called the Constitution. It guarantees all Americans freedom of movement within its borders. You cannot prevent Americans from moving between different states.


Actually states like Maine required quarantine for people from certain states. It is legal and other states could place restrictions on travel to places like Texas and FL which account for 40 percent of U.S. COVID hospitalizations. COVID and the Delta variant have had impact to travel in those regions as WN shows.


Not even close to being true.

You also have no idea where the reduction in travel for WN is coming from.
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 14, 2021 7:47 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
I never claimed October is slow, I just found your phrasing where you eliminated almost half the year (~3 months of summer, ~1 month of holidays, ~1.5 months of spring break) humorous. Looking at the chart, October looks similar to Spring Break (although over a shorter time period, early October is pretty slow still). What is that big peak halfway between 4/1 and 7/1? Mother's Day? It looks to late to be Easter.

As a side note, that chart is horrible to read. The dates with the years on the bottom plus the fact it spans more than a year with some of the same data repeating itself is a dissaster.


Summer in my eyes is Memorial day-the first week in August, holidays are the ~2 weeks of Christmas + 1 week of Thanksgiving, and Spring Break is really 1 month (2nd week of March-early April)

That peak you are talking about is Memorial day weekend. Easter is not a big travel weekend for most of the country.
Image

FYI, the chart is not mine, and was made not for the purpose of comparing peaks and valleys of travel but measuring tsa numbers through this year, although I converted the axis now for this purpose so it is easier to read.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =796230218


I made some changes to the chart although there are still some formatting difficulties with my current knowledge of Google Sheets
Image

Thanks. That looks better.
 
mcogator
Posts: 601
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:51 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:04 pm

In LA from a business standpoint, the period from the Monday before Thanksgiving to the beginning of March is dead. Of course this doesn't count holiday travel, New Years, and football games, including the Rose Bowl and Super Bowl.
 
Pi7472000
Posts: 366
Joined: Fri Apr 27, 2018 3:26 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Aug 15, 2021 12:35 am

LAXdude1023 wrote:
Pi7472000 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:

Texas and Florida havent had any decreases in travel and frankly saying they will is just wishful thinking on your part (I base that on your post history). Looking at loads to both states over the next week, flights are PACKED.

As for air travel restrictions, you see there is this thing, its called the Constitution. It guarantees all Americans freedom of movement within its borders. You cannot prevent Americans from moving between different states.


Actually states like Maine required quarantine for people from certain states. It is legal and other states could place restrictions on travel to places like Texas and FL which account for 40 percent of U.S. COVID hospitalizations. COVID and the Delta variant have had impact to travel in those regions as WN shows.


Not even close to being true.

You also have no idea where the reduction in travel for WN is coming from.


Actually it is true. I am sorry you live in Texas and it is not doing well there. Must be tough! States have previously picked who can enter without restrictions. This can happen again and will affect booking trends. States can decide that people coming from FL and TX need to quarantine or show proof of vaccination. That is smart as those TWO states account for 40 percent of U.S. hospitalizations at this time. Facts are hard. Maine had different restrictions depending on which states you were from.

WN and other airlines are seeing a decrease in bookings due to the out of control Delta variant and low vaccination rates in Southern states like MS, TX, and FL.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6639
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Aug 15, 2021 1:38 am

Pi7472000 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
Pi7472000 wrote:

Actually states like Maine required quarantine for people from certain states. It is legal and other states could place restrictions on travel to places like Texas and FL which account for 40 percent of U.S. COVID hospitalizations. COVID and the Delta variant have had impact to travel in those regions as WN shows.


Not even close to being true.

You also have no idea where the reduction in travel for WN is coming from.


Actually it is true. I am sorry you live in Texas and it is not doing well there. Must be tough! States have previously picked who can enter without restrictions. This can happen again and will affect booking trends. States can decide that people coming from FL and TX need to quarantine or show proof of vaccination. That is smart as those TWO states account for 40 percent of U.S. hospitalizations at this time. Facts are hard. Maine had different restrictions depending on which states you were from.

WN and other airlines are seeing a decrease in bookings due to the out of control Delta variant and low vaccination rates in Southern states like MS, TX, and FL.


You don’t work in the airline industry based on your comments so you couldn’t possibly know what routes are affecting southwest. I on the other hand do work in the industry and can tell that flights to/from Texas and Florida are carrying very high load factors still. I looked at WNs load factor to/from HOU last week and it’s in the 80s. The GDS shows high loads to Texas this week and VERY high loads to Florida.

Comparing Texas and Florida or Mississippi is extremely stupid. The case rates and hospitalization rates in Texas are half what they are in Florida. It’s right there on the NYT Covid map.

I’m all for talking with people outside the industry but not when they’re going to talk down to people who have better access to data.
 
FLresident
Posts: 17
Joined: Tue Jun 01, 2021 6:32 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Aug 20, 2021 5:08 pm

FLresident wrote:
travelin man wrote:
travelin man wrote:
Flightaware has good data on the change in aircraft movements 2019 vs. 2020 vs. 2021. I've consolidated some of the top airports to see the change between 2019 and 2021 from the latest day's worth of data (June 13th). I excluded cargo heavy airports such as MEM, SDF, and ANC, because those would more likely reflect cargo demand, not passenger demand. Not too many surprises, with the top "recovered" airports in the Sun and Mountain destinations, and the least recovered airports basically SFO and the Northeast.

Again, this is the change in aircraft movements (arrivals + departures), but it looks like it follows a lot of the passenger data that has come out.

AIRPORT % Change in Aircraft Movements (2021 vs 2019)
TUS 124%
HNL 119%
SNA 118%
RNO 117%
SJU 112%
BOI 107%
SLC 102%
TPA 101%

AUS 100%
PHX 99%
ABQ 99%
BNA 98%
OKC 98%
MIA 96%
DEN 95%
CLT 94%
MCO 94%
LAS 93%
SAT 93%
DFW 92%
FLL 92%

IND 88%
MDW 86%
IAH 86%
MKE 86%
SMF 85%
SEA 84%
CVG 83%

MSY 79%
JAX 79%
ATL 78%
SAN 77%
MSP 76%
RDU 75%
ORD 75%
MCI 75%
STL 75%
LAX 75%
PIT 75%
CMH 74%
OAK 74%
DTW 73%
PHL 73%
BWI 73%
CLE 72%
BUF 70%

PDX 69%
IAD 68%
SJC 67%
JFK 65%

BOS 59%
DCA 59%
EWR 59%
SFO 53%


Updated Flightaware data as of July 25th (now including more airports):
AIRPORT % Change in Aircraft Movements (2021 vs 2019)
RSW 143%
LGB 133%
COS 130%
LIH 126%
OGG 119%
HNL 119%
KOA 115%
BOI 112%
RNO 112%
SNA 110%
SJU 109%
SAV 109%
PBI 107%
AUS 106%
GEG 106%
FAT 105%
OKC 105%
SLC 104%
PHX 104%
IND 102%
CHS 102%
ELP 102%
GRR 101%
MIA 100%

BNA 98%
TUS 98%
DAL 97%
ABQ 97%
TPA 97%
CLT 97%
OMA 96%
DSM 96%
HOU 96%
TUL 95%
LAS 95%
BHM 95%
DEN 94%
SAT 93%
ONT 93%
FLL 93%
MCO 92%
PWM 92%
DFW 92%
IAH 92%
MKE 91%
GSP 91%

MDW 87%
SMF 85%
BDL 85%
BUR 85%
IAD 84%
SEA 84%
ALB 83%
ORD 82%
CVG 82%
MSY 81%
JAX 80%
RDU 80%

BUF 79%
CLE 78%
LAX 77%
CMH 77%
PIT 76%
ATL 76%
STL 76%
OAK 76%
MSP 75%
SAN 75%
BWI 75%
MCI 74%
PVD 74%
PHL 73%
DTW 73%

PDX 67%
SJC 67%
BOS 67%
JFK 66%
EWR 65%
DCA 63%

SFO 57%
LGA 50%

Hawaii, Florida, Texas, Mountain West/Desert Southwest (+SNA and LGB surprisingly) still leading aircraft movement recovery. NYC/BOS/Bay Area still lagging very badly, even accounting for the continued decrease in longhaul international flights. (PDX is also surprising to me in their lack of recovery.)


I am curious about these numbers.
SLC May: 92.1%
SLC June: 93.9%

BNA May: 83.4%
BNA June: 92.4%

TPA May: 87.7%
TPA June: 93.2%

FLL May: 85.8%
FLL June: 91.5%

AUS May: 71.7%
AUS June:

What explains the discrepancy between the movements and the reported passenger numbers for these months? Given the trend, the July numbers should be higher for each. But AUS for example had movements at 106% while the most recent passenger numbers (May) are still a bit lower than 2019.

These were all obtained from the airport websites.
https://www.tampaairport.com/facts-stat ... financials
http://www.austintexas.gov/department/a ... go-traffic
https://www.broward.org/Airport/Busines ... stics.aspx
https://flynashville.com/nashville-airp ... nd-reports
https://slcairport.com/about-the-airpor ... tatistics/


As an update:
SLC May: 92.1%
SLC June: 93.9%
SLC July:

BNA May: 83.4%
BNA June: 92.4%
BNA July: 101%

TPA May: 87.7%
TPA June: 93.2%
TPA July: 94.4%

FLL May: 85.8%
FLL June: 91.5%
FLL July:

AUS May: 71.7%
AUS June: 85.1%
AUS July:

While I expect that passengers ended up just flying a different date, which won't impact the overall numbers, it is worth noting TPA had 2 partial days with operation shut down due to tropical storm elsa.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 6524
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Aug 24, 2021 8:14 pm

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos