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MIflyer12
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Aug 24, 2021 9:07 pm

Multiple U.S. Passenger Airlines Are Deploying More Capacity in September 2021 Than In 2019 is a nice click-bait page title. On an ASM-weighted basis the industry is still well down. Allegiant and Spirit are small fractions of the size of DL or UA.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Aug 24, 2021 10:58 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Multiple U.S. Passenger Airlines Are Deploying More Capacity in September 2021 Than In 2019 is a nice click-bait page title. On an ASM-weighted basis the industry is still well down. Allegiant and Spirit are small fractions of the size of DL or UA.


Sorry the title isn't grim enough for you

Image
https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#
 
tphuang
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Aug 30, 2021 5:04 pm

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/d ... very-adobe
a little more on booking drop off.
spend was $6 billion in June, just 5% below pre-COVID
July was down 13% from pre-COVID
August was down 33% from pre-COVID.

July was first month when tick prices notched 2019 levels. August prices are 6% below those levels.
 
Seat1F
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Aug 30, 2021 7:27 pm

tphuang wrote:
July was down 13% from pre-COVID
August was down 33% from pre-COVID.

July was first month when tick prices notched 2019 levels. August prices are 6% below those levels.


I'm not surprised. I expect September and October to be at least as bad as August.
 
altairF28
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Aug 30, 2021 9:04 pm

Seat1F wrote:
tphuang wrote:
July was down 13% from pre-COVID
August was down 33% from pre-COVID.

July was first month when tick prices notched 2019 levels. August prices are 6% below those levels.


I'm not surprised. I expect September and October to be at least as bad as August.

And with September 30 looming I could see the airlines looking for another bailout and warning of thousands of layoffs and another parade to the desert if they don't get it.
 
FlyPNS1
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Aug 30, 2021 9:27 pm

Not sure anyone will be buying the airlines threatening layoffs, when many of the airlines don't have enough staff to fly their current schedules.
 
Scarebus34
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Aug 31, 2021 3:17 am

altairF28 wrote:
Seat1F wrote:
tphuang wrote:
July was down 13% from pre-COVID
August was down 33% from pre-COVID.

July was first month when tick prices notched 2019 levels. August prices are 6% below those levels.


I'm not surprised. I expect September and October to be at least as bad as August.

And with September 30 looming I could see the airlines looking for another bailout and warning of thousands of layoffs and another parade to the desert if they don't get it.

Nope - they don't need it. No furloughs will be taking place either - at least not on a large scale.
 
altairF28
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Aug 31, 2021 3:54 am

Scarebus34 wrote:
altairF28 wrote:
Seat1F wrote:

I'm not surprised. I expect September and October to be at least as bad as August.

And with September 30 looming I could see the airlines looking for another bailout and warning of thousands of layoffs and another parade to the desert if they don't get it.

Nope - they don't need it. No furloughs will be taking place either - at least not on a large scale.

OK fair enough. I was going by the people who reacted to Q2 earnings reports by noting that the government was reimbursing airlines for a lot of their workers' salaries. And as for FLYPNS1'S comment the operative words are "don't have enough staff to fly their current schedules". If traffic is down as much as it looks like it is I expect airlines to soon take a machete to October and early November.
 
Jshank83
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Aug 31, 2021 3:59 am

altairF28 wrote:
Scarebus34 wrote:
altairF28 wrote:
And with September 30 looming I could see the airlines looking for another bailout and warning of thousands of layoffs and another parade to the desert if they don't get it.

Nope - they don't need it. No furloughs will be taking place either - at least not on a large scale.

OK fair enough. I was going by the people who reacted to Q2 earnings reports by noting that the government was reimbursing airlines for a lot of their workers' salaries. And as for FLYPNS1'S comment the operative words are "don't have enough staff to fly their current schedules". If traffic is down as much as it looks like it is I expect airlines to soon take a machete to October and early November.


Some already did (NK/WN) because they don’t have enough staff. I don’t see anyone getting furloughed or laid off. It isn’t going to plummet anywhere near to as bad as it was. Southwest is already supposedly down 10% of pilots vs precovid
 
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UPlog
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 01, 2021 5:04 pm

A Bloomberg survey of 45 large global companies found 84 percent of companies plan to spend less on travel post-pandemic, with a majority of those planning cuts of 20 to 40 percent of their travel budgets. As a CEO put it, business travel has "forever changed" as ease and efficiency of technology, cost savings and carbon emissions reduction push companies away from air travel.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... er-changed

Put another way, all of those Zoom meetings aren’t going away.
 
Exeiowa
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:07 pm

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/01/tsa-airport-screenings-drop-to-lowest-since-may-as-travel-and-fares-fall.html

While looking at this what was clear to me is that while flying has increased significantly since May this year is tracking 2019 but about 500-600k down, I am thinking that airlines might have planned on that gap shrinking instead of following trend at the same gap and that has what caught them out leading to the dire warnings. My best guess is the big chunk of missing passengers are the non flying business travelers and they are coming back much more slowly than other groups and i think that is what other data in this thread has been showing. So all the private individuals sitting on the sidelines are mostly back, but that the other group traveling someone else money are not.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 01, 2021 8:15 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Multiple U.S. Passenger Airlines Are Deploying More Capacity in September 2021 Than In 2019 is a nice click-bait page title. On an ASM-weighted basis the industry is still well down. Allegiant and Spirit are small fractions of the size of DL or UA.


Sorry the title isn't grim enough for you

Image
https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

Less restrictive states seeing the most traffic, most restrictive seeing the least. What a shocker…
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 01, 2021 8:21 pm

altairF28 wrote:
Seat1F wrote:
tphuang wrote:
July was down 13% from pre-COVID
August was down 33% from pre-COVID.

July was first month when tick prices notched 2019 levels. August prices are 6% below those levels.


I'm not surprised. I expect September and October to be at least as bad as August.

And with September 30 looming I could see the airlines looking for another bailout and warning of thousands of layoffs and another parade to the desert if they don't get it.

This is the big question….

Given the political climate, I am at a firm “Who Knows?” Regarding what will happen in October. A lot more than just airline issues coming together around that time as well.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 01, 2021 8:30 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
Less restrictive states seeing the most traffic, most restrictive seeing the least. What a shocker…


Talk about a logical fallacy...
 
cledaybuck
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 01, 2021 8:52 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
Less restrictive states seeing the most traffic, most restrictive seeing the least. What a shocker…


Talk about a logical fallacy...

What states still have restrictions, other than Hawaii?
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Sep 02, 2021 1:22 am

No surprise that place in leisure markets / vacation home markets, primarily in the Mountain West, and Coastal Southeast / Florida have seen big increases.
Both from leisure travel, and from people temporarily/quasi-permanently relocated to their second / vacation homes.
Also leisure markets are prime for substitutability of leisure travel in where people may have traveled internationally, are instead going to domestic leisure markets.

Its not a political thing, its purely market dynamics.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Sep 02, 2021 1:24 am

Brickell305 wrote:
Agreed. it's fairly obvious that people are traveling to places that they perceive as being "outdoors" attractions; whether those places are beaches, mountains, lakes, parks, etc. Where tourism is down is for "city type" destinations. Couple that with the severe downturn in business travel, especially for the largest companies, it's no wonder that a place like NYC has seen a large decline while a place like Montana has increased. Montana did not have a lot of business travel to lose and gained a lot of leisure travel. NYC has seen a major drop in business travel (of which it had a lot to lose) and is a city destination and is therefore still seeing major reductions in leisure travel. NYC hasn't had any major restrictions in months and even when it did, they were fairly easy to circumvent.


The absurdity is that, per various questionnaires, people are traveling to remote destinations because they feel safer there. Ironically they're traveling to crowded national parks where there is/was restrictions, including mask mandates. Places like NYC, Chicago, etc. have seen an increase in domestic tourism, although they heavily rely on business travel and international tourism (which is federally restricted).

Let's stop making this out to be something it's not.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Sep 02, 2021 1:09 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
Agreed. it's fairly obvious that people are traveling to places that they perceive as being "outdoors" attractions; whether those places are beaches, mountains, lakes, parks, etc. Where tourism is down is for "city type" destinations. Couple that with the severe downturn in business travel, especially for the largest companies, it's no wonder that a place like NYC has seen a large decline while a place like Montana has increased. Montana did not have a lot of business travel to lose and gained a lot of leisure travel. NYC has seen a major drop in business travel (of which it had a lot to lose) and is a city destination and is therefore still seeing major reductions in leisure travel. NYC hasn't had any major restrictions in months and even when it did, they were fairly easy to circumvent.


The absurdity is that, per various questionnaires, people are traveling to remote destinations because they feel safer there. Ironically they're traveling to crowded national parks where there is/was restrictions, including mask mandates. Places like NYC, Chicago, etc. have seen an increase in domestic tourism, although they heavily rely on business travel and international tourism (which is federally restricted).

Let's stop making this out to be something it's not.


Explain Texas, Tennessee, and Nevada then. Those are all states where the attractions they have are all indoors. Texas isnt a leisure destination either.

Restrictions play a part in demand. Im not saying its just that, but its definitely part of it.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Sep 02, 2021 6:18 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
Agreed. it's fairly obvious that people are traveling to places that they perceive as being "outdoors" attractions; whether those places are beaches, mountains, lakes, parks, etc. Where tourism is down is for "city type" destinations. Couple that with the severe downturn in business travel, especially for the largest companies, it's no wonder that a place like NYC has seen a large decline while a place like Montana has increased. Montana did not have a lot of business travel to lose and gained a lot of leisure travel. NYC has seen a major drop in business travel (of which it had a lot to lose) and is a city destination and is therefore still seeing major reductions in leisure travel. NYC hasn't had any major restrictions in months and even when it did, they were fairly easy to circumvent.


The absurdity is that, per various questionnaires, people are traveling to remote destinations because they feel safer there. Ironically they're traveling to crowded national parks where there is/was restrictions, including mask mandates. Places like NYC, Chicago, etc. have seen an increase in domestic tourism, although they heavily rely on business travel and international tourism (which is federally restricted).

Let's stop making this out to be something it's not.


Explain Texas, Tennessee, and Nevada then. Those are all states where the attractions they have are all indoors. Texas isnt a leisure destination either.

Restrictions play a part in demand. Im not saying its just that, but its definitely part of it.


Explain why OH and MO (no restrictions) have significantly larger drops than CA (restrictions). Explain the same for AK over MI. Explain why NV (some of the most restrictions in the country, in case you're not aware) and CO (restrictions) are far to the left on the graph.

Again, the data does not support the assertion and it's beyond a stretch to say it does. Also note the data is for movements, not capacity and certainly not finite passenger numbers. The data most likely supports trends in where people are traveling to (traditional touristy markets, including Florida, Disney, Vegas; open spaces/national parks -- and many of these places have restrictions) and strategic network flows (e.g. AA restoring most of DFW, UA in DEN, DL in SLC, etc.).
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Sep 02, 2021 6:32 pm

altairF28 wrote:
Scarebus34 wrote:
altairF28 wrote:
And with September 30 looming I could see the airlines looking for another bailout and warning of thousands of layoffs and another parade to the desert if they don't get it.

Nope - they don't need it. No furloughs will be taking place either - at least not on a large scale.

OK fair enough. I was going by the people who reacted to Q2 earnings reports by noting that the government was reimbursing airlines for a lot of their workers' salaries. And as for FLYPNS1'S comment the operative words are "don't have enough staff to fly their current schedules". If traffic is down as much as it looks like it is I expect airlines to soon take a machete to October and early November.

And that doesn’t include the economic turndown we are about to see, because of all support programs ending.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Sep 02, 2021 6:34 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
Agreed. it's fairly obvious that people are traveling to places that they perceive as being "outdoors" attractions; whether those places are beaches, mountains, lakes, parks, etc. Where tourism is down is for "city type" destinations. Couple that with the severe downturn in business travel, especially for the largest companies, it's no wonder that a place like NYC has seen a large decline while a place like Montana has increased. Montana did not have a lot of business travel to lose and gained a lot of leisure travel. NYC has seen a major drop in business travel (of which it had a lot to lose) and is a city destination and is therefore still seeing major reductions in leisure travel. NYC hasn't had any major restrictions in months and even when it did, they were fairly easy to circumvent.


The absurdity is that, per various questionnaires, people are traveling to remote destinations because they feel safer there. Ironically they're traveling to crowded national parks where there is/was restrictions, including mask mandates. Places like NYC, Chicago, etc. have seen an increase in domestic tourism, although they heavily rely on business travel and international tourism (which is federally restricted).

Let's stop making this out to be something it's not.


Explain Texas, Tennessee, and Nevada then. Those are all states where the attractions they have are all indoors. Texas isnt a leisure destination either.

Restrictions play a part in demand. Im not saying its just that, but its definitely part of it.

Simply put, in states where the economies are being allowed to operate unrestricted, they are booming. Where they are not, traffic is not recovering at anything close to normal.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Sep 02, 2021 6:35 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:

The absurdity is that, per various questionnaires, people are traveling to remote destinations because they feel safer there. Ironically they're traveling to crowded national parks where there is/was restrictions, including mask mandates. Places like NYC, Chicago, etc. have seen an increase in domestic tourism, although they heavily rely on business travel and international tourism (which is federally restricted).

Let's stop making this out to be something it's not.


Explain Texas, Tennessee, and Nevada then. Those are all states where the attractions they have are all indoors. Texas isnt a leisure destination either.

Restrictions play a part in demand. Im not saying its just that, but its definitely part of it.

Simply put, in states where the economies are being allowed to operate unrestricted, they are booming. Where they are not, traffic is not recovering at anything close to normal.


I ask again, what local economies are being operated with restrictions? Even if we assume that local economies that previously had restrictions still have them, the data does not support the assertion. As I wrote above, MO and OH (no restrictions) are among the hardest hit states in terms of movements, whereas NV and CO (some of the toughest restrictions) are least hit. Seems like we're using a logical fallacy, to stretch an argument that we truly want to believe, ignoring facts.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Sep 02, 2021 7:02 pm

BTW, some quick research yields that this past July, Houston, Dallas and Austin hotel markets experienced a similar drop in both occupancy and revenue (vs. 2019) as most "restricted" markets. Los Angeles, which has restrictions (that aren't enforced), slightly both Houston and Dallas.

The assertion that people are planning vacations to Texas, because of the lack of restrictions, is definitely not supported by facts.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Sep 02, 2021 8:37 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
BTW, some quick research yields that this past July, Houston, Dallas and Austin hotel markets experienced a similar drop in both occupancy and revenue (vs. 2019) as most "restricted" markets. Los Angeles, which has restrictions (that aren't enforced), slightly both Houston and Dallas.

The assertion that people are planning vacations to Texas, because of the lack of restrictions, is definitely not supported by facts.


What link do you have? I don't see that data anywhere. All I see is the below:

https://www.ahla.com/press-release/repo ... -recession

Airline capacity definitely shows Texas markets way ahead of Southern California vs. 2019 levels.

Also NV and CO don't have tough Covid restrictions at all.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Sep 02, 2021 9:14 pm

This was discussed the other day. I finally found it.

H.R.4980 - To direct the Secretary of Homeland Security to ensure that any individual traveling on a flight that departs from or arrives to an airport inside the United States or a territory of the United States is fully vaccinated against COVID-19, and for other purposes.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-con ... ll/4980?q=
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Sep 02, 2021 9:25 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
BTW, some quick research yields that this past July, Houston, Dallas and Austin hotel markets experienced a similar drop in both occupancy and revenue (vs. 2019) as most "restricted" markets. Los Angeles, which has restrictions (that aren't enforced), slightly both Houston and Dallas.

The assertion that people are planning vacations to Texas, because of the lack of restrictions, is definitely not supported by facts.


What link do you have? I don't see that data anywhere. All I see is the below:

https://www.ahla.com/press-release/repo ... -recession

Airline capacity definitely shows Texas markets way ahead of Southern California vs. 2019 levels.

Also NV and CO don't have tough Covid restrictions at all.


From a data service I subscribe to. NV is one of the few places with a mask mandate status quo, but you discount that, so I'll ask again: what restrictions do you keep referring to?

Airline capacity is meaningless. Movements at DEN are even with 2019, but through July, the percentage of connecting passengers increased 7%. I didn't research it, but I'd expect a similar trend at places like DFW, SLC, etc. The capacity exists because the operating airline believes it's the most financially beneficial way of serving its network -- e.g. SLC has seen steep increases to Western markets that saw steep decreases from MSP, ATL & DTW -- not because of "restrictions."

Facts simply don't support the assertion that people are holidaying in markets with no restrictions. Let's not forget that National Parks have mask mandates. And a study commissioned by IATA back in July concluded that nearly 80% of adults who have or planned to travel by air this summer were or would be fully vaccinated -- much, much higher than the national number. That's not surprising -- higher income, more educated individuals -- the type who tend to travel the most -- are far more likely to be vaccinated.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Sep 03, 2021 2:08 am

airbazar wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
Late evening departures seem like toast. MIA is a ghost town after 8PM. I agree it’s going to take several more months for business travel to recover. Also the suits & bean counters are going to be shoving virtual down our throats for a while. Until it proves to be the disaster it will become.

A couple of months? The liability of making employees risk getting sick is too great for companies to allow anything other than the most essential of business travel. Especially if it requires gatherings of people. As long as we're officially in a Pandemic no insurance will cover that.
It should go without saying that airlines have better figure out how to make money without the passengers at the front of the plane, for quite some time.

Covid is a absolutely everywhere. Why does it matter if you travel at this point
 
jbs2886
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Sep 03, 2021 2:32 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:

The absurdity is that, per various questionnaires, people are traveling to remote destinations because they feel safer there. Ironically they're traveling to crowded national parks where there is/was restrictions, including mask mandates. Places like NYC, Chicago, etc. have seen an increase in domestic tourism, although they heavily rely on business travel and international tourism (which is federally restricted).

Let's stop making this out to be something it's not.


Explain Texas, Tennessee, and Nevada then. Those are all states where the attractions they have are all indoors. Texas isnt a leisure destination either.

Restrictions play a part in demand. Im not saying its just that, but its definitely part of it.

Simply put, in states where the economies are being allowed to operate unrestricted, they are booming. Where they are not, traffic is not recovering at anything close to normal.


This is false with the exception of a few states and cannot be broadly assumed. Please do not impose political opinions into this especially when the facts, as others posted, are contrary.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Sep 03, 2021 4:05 am

jbs2886 wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:

Explain Texas, Tennessee, and Nevada then. Those are all states where the attractions they have are all indoors. Texas isnt a leisure destination either.

Restrictions play a part in demand. Im not saying its just that, but its definitely part of it.

Simply put, in states where the economies are being allowed to operate unrestricted, they are booming. Where they are not, traffic is not recovering at anything close to normal.


This is false with the exception of a few states and cannot be broadly assumed. Please do not impose political opinions into this especially when the facts, as others posted, are contrary.


How is that political?

Im not saying its true across the board. Its certainly true in Texas, Mississippi, Florida, and South Carolina.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Sep 03, 2021 4:56 am

LAXdude1023 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
Simply put, in states where the economies are being allowed to operate unrestricted, they are booming. Where they are not, traffic is not recovering at anything close to normal.


This is false with the exception of a few states and cannot be broadly assumed. Please do not impose political opinions into this especially when the facts, as others posted, are contrary.


How is that political?

Im not saying its true across the board. Its certainly true in Texas, Mississippi, Florida, and South Carolina.

And Tennessee, and Arizona, and Montana, etc,etc, adn. All you have to do is look where the majority of the recent added flights are. They aren't going to Grand Rapids and Boston, et.al.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Sep 03, 2021 5:00 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:

This is false with the exception of a few states and cannot be broadly assumed. Please do not impose political opinions into this especially when the facts, as others posted, are contrary.


How is that political?

Im not saying its true across the board. Its certainly true in Texas, Mississippi, Florida, and South Carolina.

And Tennessee, and Arizona, and Montana, etc,etc, adn. All you have to do is look where the majority of the recent added flights are. They aren't going to Grand Rapids and Boston, et.al.


I already debunked that point in my posting; that’s not what the data shows. I’m going to ask again - what restrictions exist that you keep asserting?
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Sep 03, 2021 11:30 am

This is a ridiculous assertion about restrictions. It’s business / corporate demand and international that impacts specific regions and airports disproportionately.

MIchigan is down overall. Yet TVC is up like 20% from 2019 levels this summer.

Why? LEISURE and VFR.
DTW is down because The DL hub is operating 30% less flying than 2019 and that skews the numbers statewide.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:18 pm

The strength of this thread is people reporting accurate statistics and trends, not opinions nor arguing about them. Anecdotal from my home town, a few people, very few flying for business. More, but not a lot more flying family and leisure. (Western Washington. Delta, variant not airline, is hitting hard. Hospital from a little to badly overcrowded)
 
UpNAWAy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:26 pm

Why can you walk or drive across the boarder from Mexico without any Covid restrictions or requirements but you have to proof a negative test to enter at an airport? Why hasn't the US Airline industry demanded equal rules?
 
Western727
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:51 pm

UpNAWAy wrote:
Why can you walk or drive across the boarder from Mexico without any Covid restrictions or requirements but you have to proof a negative test to enter at an airport? Why hasn't the US Airline industry demanded equal rules?


It's the same with US-Canada flights vs the land border crossings (albeit the policies are different than US-Mexico, but the point is that it's also not consistent between air & land for US-Canada), and is something that continues to puzzle me.

EDIT: clarity.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Sep 03, 2021 2:56 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
The strength of this thread is people reporting accurate statistics and trends, not opinions nor arguing about them. Anecdotal from my home town, a few people, very few flying for business. More, but not a lot more flying family and leisure. (Western Washington. Delta, variant not airline, is hitting hard. Hospital from a little to badly overcrowded)


Except that raw data can be extremely misleading. A good example of this, is the chart above - raw movements are not an indicator of trends, etc. DEN’s movements are unchanged vs. 2019, but what the data doesn’t tell you is that the percentage of connecting passengers grew by 7 points. That’s a very significant number, and tells you that the traffic flows are more of a derivative of UA/WN’s network decisions, than DEN itself.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 5045
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Sep 03, 2021 3:12 pm

Widebody - indeed it is always useful when we have charts, graphs etc. for the poster to critique the strength, weaknesses, and actual import. Naked statistics need to be clothed with proper interpretation, and that interpretation in turn given some context.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6471
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Sep 03, 2021 3:15 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
The strength of this thread is people reporting accurate statistics and trends, not opinions nor arguing about them. Anecdotal from my home town, a few people, very few flying for business. More, but not a lot more flying family and leisure. (Western Washington. Delta, variant not airline, is hitting hard. Hospital from a little to badly overcrowded)


Except that raw data can be extremely misleading. A good example of this, is the chart above - raw movements are not an indicator of trends, etc. DEN’s movements are unchanged vs. 2019, but what the data doesn’t tell you is that the percentage of connecting passengers grew by 7 points. That’s a very significant number, and tells you that the traffic flows are more of a derivative of UA/WN’s network decisions, than DEN itself.


But O&D data can. With UA, DEN and IAH have wayyy more O&D passengers than all of the other UA hubs. Relative to 2019, the gaps are much bigger between those EWR, LAX, and SFO now. ORD is increasing as well.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 667
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Sep 03, 2021 3:59 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
The strength of this thread is people reporting accurate statistics and trends, not opinions nor arguing about them. Anecdotal from my home town, a few people, very few flying for business. More, but not a lot more flying family and leisure. (Western Washington. Delta, variant not airline, is hitting hard. Hospital from a little to badly overcrowded)


Except that raw data can be extremely misleading. A good example of this, is the chart above - raw movements are not an indicator of trends, etc. DEN’s movements are unchanged vs. 2019, but what the data doesn’t tell you is that the percentage of connecting passengers grew by 7 points. That’s a very significant number, and tells you that the traffic flows are more of a derivative of UA/WN’s network decisions, than DEN itself.


But O&D data can. With UA, DEN and IAH have wayyy more O&D passengers than all of the other UA hubs. Relative to 2019, the gaps are much bigger between those EWR, LAX, and SFO now. ORD is increasing as well.


Please share the data. I’ll handily bet that if we plotted the 2Q 2019 data, vs. the 2Q 2021 data, the drop in O/D will not mirror the data above. In other words, I’m betting that DEN, SLC, DFW, etc. are being propped up by connections, and the drop in o/d will be much closer than that of movements and available capacity.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6471
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Sep 03, 2021 4:00 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:

Except that raw data can be extremely misleading. A good example of this, is the chart above - raw movements are not an indicator of trends, etc. DEN’s movements are unchanged vs. 2019, but what the data doesn’t tell you is that the percentage of connecting passengers grew by 7 points. That’s a very significant number, and tells you that the traffic flows are more of a derivative of UA/WN’s network decisions, than DEN itself.


But O&D data can. With UA, DEN and IAH have wayyy more O&D passengers than all of the other UA hubs. Relative to 2019, the gaps are much bigger between those EWR, LAX, and SFO now. ORD is increasing as well.


Please share the data. I’ll handily bet that if we plotted the 2Q 2019 data, vs. the 2Q 2021 data, the drop in O/D will not mirror the data above. In other words, I’m betting that DEN, SLC, DFW, etc. are being propped up by connections, and the drop in o/d will be much closer than that of movements and available capacity.


Its been all over the UA thread. Jayunited posts it regularly. Its O&D so connections are irrelevant.
 
 
UALifer
Posts: 94
Joined: Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:35 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Sep 05, 2021 8:23 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
The strength of this thread is people reporting accurate statistics and trends, not opinions nor arguing about them. Anecdotal from my home town, a few people, very few flying for business. More, but not a lot more flying family and leisure. (Western Washington. Delta, variant not airline, is hitting hard. Hospital from a little to badly overcrowded)


Except that raw data can be extremely misleading. A good example of this, is the chart above - raw movements are not an indicator of trends, etc. DEN’s movements are unchanged vs. 2019, but what the data doesn’t tell you is that the percentage of connecting passengers grew by 7 points. That’s a very significant number, and tells you that the traffic flows are more of a derivative of UA/WN’s network decisions, than DEN itself.


But O&D data can. With UA, DEN and IAH have wayyy more O&D passengers than all of the other UA hubs. Relative to 2019, the gaps are much bigger between those EWR, LAX, and SFO now. ORD is increasing as well.


Not true, EWR by far has the most O&D passengers, followed by ORD, and then DEN and IAH.

The numbers Jay posts are total passengers, not O&D.

For reference, last week UA had roughly 141k total pax at EWR, of which 121k were local (86%). DEN had 236k total pax with just 98k locals (42%). Even SFO, which has been the slowest hub to recover by far, was 69% local last week with 73k local passengers on less than half the total seats operated at DEN.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6471
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:04 am

UALifer wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:

Except that raw data can be extremely misleading. A good example of this, is the chart above - raw movements are not an indicator of trends, etc. DEN’s movements are unchanged vs. 2019, but what the data doesn’t tell you is that the percentage of connecting passengers grew by 7 points. That’s a very significant number, and tells you that the traffic flows are more of a derivative of UA/WN’s network decisions, than DEN itself.


But O&D data can. With UA, DEN and IAH have wayyy more O&D passengers than all of the other UA hubs. Relative to 2019, the gaps are much bigger between those EWR, LAX, and SFO now. ORD is increasing as well.


Not true, EWR by far has the most O&D passengers, followed by ORD, and then DEN and IAH.

The numbers Jay posts are total passengers, not O&D.

For reference, last week UA had roughly 141k total pax at EWR, of which 121k were local (86%). DEN had 236k total pax with just 98k locals (42%). Even SFO, which has been the slowest hub to recover by far, was 69% local last week with 73k local passengers on less than half the total seats operated at DEN.


The question becomes, what is their percentage relative to 2019? NYC is obviously a bigger O&D market than DEN or IAH. Where are we relative to pre pandemic times?
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 1700
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Sep 06, 2021 4:33 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:

How is that political?

Im not saying its true across the board. Its certainly true in Texas, Mississippi, Florida, and South Carolina.

And Tennessee, and Arizona, and Montana, etc,etc, adn. All you have to do is look where the majority of the recent added flights are. They aren't going to Grand Rapids and Boston, et.al.


I already debunked that point in my posting; that’s not what the data shows. I’m going to ask again - what restrictions exist that you keep asserting?

Here is some more data: Biz travel is using GA, more and more. IMO, and from anecdotally speaking to private fliers, it is due to the restrictions still in effect, in places like New York, California, etc.

Airlines Are Flying Again, but People Aren’t Giving Up Private Jets
Private-aviation services are running at full tilt even as commercial flights come back
https://www.wsj.com/articles/airlines-a ... 1630665116

Comparing NetJets And Wheels Up’s Divergent Growth Plans As Demand For Private Jets Soars
https://www.forbes.com/sites/douggollan ... bdeccf63ad

Wheels Up Announces Record Revenue Growth of 113% for Second Quarter 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wheels-a ... 00475.html

WingX: Business Jet Activity Continues Torrid Summer Pace
In the U.S., totals for the month thus far are 16 percent above 2019 levels. While Canadian and Mexican activity still continues to creep toward normal levels,
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... ummer-pace
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 667
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Sep 06, 2021 5:31 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
And Tennessee, and Arizona, and Montana, etc,etc, adn. All you have to do is look where the majority of the recent added flights are. They aren't going to Grand Rapids and Boston, et.al.


I already debunked that point in my posting; that’s not what the data shows. I’m going to ask again - what restrictions exist that you keep asserting?

Here is some more data: Biz travel is using GA, more and more. IMO, and from anecdotally speaking to private fliers, it is due to the restrictions still in effect, in places like New York, California, etc.

Airlines Are Flying Again, but People Aren’t Giving Up Private Jets
Private-aviation services are running at full tilt even as commercial flights come back
https://www.wsj.com/articles/airlines-a ... 1630665116

Comparing NetJets And Wheels Up’s Divergent Growth Plans As Demand For Private Jets Soars
https://www.forbes.com/sites/douggollan ... bdeccf63ad

Wheels Up Announces Record Revenue Growth of 113% for Second Quarter 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wheels-a ... 00475.html

WingX: Business Jet Activity Continues Torrid Summer Pace
In the U.S., totals for the month thus far are 16 percent above 2019 levels. While Canadian and Mexican activity still continues to creep toward normal levels,
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... ummer-pace


You continue to make assertions that aren’t supported by the sources you share. In recent years, private charter has increased among primarily the rich and famous, including a plethora of celebs purchasing their own private jet. And that’s what the article supports.

But the problem with private charter is that it isn’t cost effective. Even if you’re sending 16 employees to a conference, published fares will generally be more cost effective. Private charter isn’t going to make much more than a dent in the overall market.

And I’m still waiting for you to share the restrictions you keep bringing up.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5695
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Sep 06, 2021 6:53 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:

I already debunked that point in my posting; that’s not what the data shows. I’m going to ask again - what restrictions exist that you keep asserting?

Here is some more data: Biz travel is using GA, more and more. IMO, and from anecdotally speaking to private fliers, it is due to the restrictions still in effect, in places like New York, California, etc.

Airlines Are Flying Again, but People Aren’t Giving Up Private Jets
Private-aviation services are running at full tilt even as commercial flights come back
https://www.wsj.com/articles/airlines-a ... 1630665116

Comparing NetJets And Wheels Up’s Divergent Growth Plans As Demand For Private Jets Soars
https://www.forbes.com/sites/douggollan ... bdeccf63ad

Wheels Up Announces Record Revenue Growth of 113% for Second Quarter 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wheels-a ... 00475.html

WingX: Business Jet Activity Continues Torrid Summer Pace
In the U.S., totals for the month thus far are 16 percent above 2019 levels. While Canadian and Mexican activity still continues to creep toward normal levels,
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... ummer-pace


You continue to make assertions that aren’t supported by the sources you share. In recent years, private charter has increased among primarily the rich and famous, including a plethora of celebs purchasing their own private jet. And that’s what the article supports.

But the problem with private charter is that it isn’t cost effective. Even if you’re sending 16 employees to a conference, published fares will generally be more cost effective. Private charter isn’t going to make much more than a dent in the overall market.

And I’m still waiting for you to share the restrictions you keep bringing up.

It just makes no sense when you think of millions of people flying. You’d need tens of thousands of private jets flying around to make a difference
 
MohawkWeekend
Posts: 981
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Sep 06, 2021 7:07 pm

The Citation that recently went down in Connecticut had 2 passengers - Doctors.

I don't know whether they were flying on business or vacations. But I believe there are a lot more people flying private because 1) Americans with really good jobs ($250k plus) usually have 401k and 403b that are worth millions and houses that are worth millions. $20 to $30 k isn't really a show stopper.
2) People with money won't put up with the US airline experience anymore. We recently had an incident at CLE were a passenger from NY assaulted a teenage in the TSA line. It's not just crazy on the planes.

Non-ULCC AIrline's absolutely need every high revenue passengers to be profitable and survive. We're going to see that in the first earnings statements after payroll support ends.
 
MohawkWeekend
Posts: 981
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:39 pm

 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 667
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Sep 06, 2021 11:19 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
The Citation that recently went down in Connecticut had 2 passengers - Doctors.

I don't know whether they were flying on business or vacations. But I believe there are a lot more people flying private because 1) Americans with really good jobs ($250k plus) usually have 401k and 403b that are worth millions and houses that are worth millions. $20 to $30 k isn't really a show stopper.
2) People with money won't put up with the US airline experience anymore. We recently had an incident at CLE were a passenger from NY assaulted a teenage in the TSA line. It's not just crazy on the planes.

Non-ULCC AIrline's absolutely need every high revenue passengers to be profitable and survive. We're going to see that in the first earnings statements after payroll support ends.


No, people aren’t going to withdrawn funds from their retirement accounts, or tap into the equity of their homes, to pay for private charters. Private charters are insanely expensive and will continue to appeal to a small, niche demographic. Many wealth people lack the cash flow to travel by private charters regularly.

And yes, people are fustrated with the commercial aviation experience. But no, they’re not going to trade their families $500 tickets on F9 to MCO for a $50,000 private charter jet. This thread is getting sillier.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 15299
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Sep 07, 2021 12:14 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
MohawkWeekend wrote:
The Citation that recently went down in Connecticut had 2 passengers - Doctors.

I don't know whether they were flying on business or vacations. But I believe there are a lot more people flying private because 1) Americans with really good jobs ($250k plus) usually have 401k and 403b that are worth millions and houses that are worth millions. $20 to $30 k isn't really a show stopper.
2) People with money won't put up with the US airline experience anymore. We recently had an incident at CLE were a passenger from NY assaulted a teenage in the TSA line. It's not just crazy on the planes.

Non-ULCC AIrline's absolutely need every high revenue passengers to be profitable and survive. We're going to see that in the first earnings statements after payroll support ends.


No, people aren’t going to withdrawn funds from their retirement accounts, or tap into the equity of their homes, to pay for private charters. Private charters are insanely expensive and will continue to appeal to a small, niche demographic. Many wealth people lack the cash flow to travel by private charters regularly.

And yes, people are fustrated with the commercial aviation experience. But no, they’re not going to trade their families $500 tickets on F9 to MCO for a $50,000 private charter jet. This thread is getting sillier.


Yeah, this is fantasy. $250k/year is something like $12,000/month take home in a typical tax and benefit environment. I could go through that self paying to charter on a single trip and in more normal times I take a heck of a lot more than one trip a month. Does any road warrior have an employer or clients who will pay for charter?

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