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PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Sep 07, 2021 12:33 am

$250k? Yeah right. Thats in the demographic that will buy domestic first or maybe splurge on J to Europe for a special trip but not regular customers of private charters.

$2.5 M maybe.
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Sep 07, 2021 1:09 am

If you can come up with a business reason for a trip (say a seminar) the government picks up about 25 percent of the bill. The evidence is there in the various articles quoted in Post 2094 by FlyingElvii. There is record demand for business aviation. They are profitable. US airlines are losing money and are going to start losing even greater amounts of money when payroll aid ends.

The super rich own their own airplanes. Who then is driving the record demand for charters? Where are the high revenue passengers that used to fly commercial airlines? Staying home? I wonder how many biz-jets are departing Montana, Idaho, Florida and Colorado tonight after the Labor Day holiday? Is it possible that semi-rich people don't want to fly commercial with crazy passengers, passengers who may have COVID and don't know how to wear a mask properly, poor service, TSA and delays?

I've mentioned before that the majors must have high revenue passengers to survive with their current cost structures. How long can airlines survive matching F9 coach fares and charging unsustainable low fares in F?
Depart
Washington, DC to Los Angeles, CA
Wednesday, September 8, 2021
8:40 AM
11:25 AM
5h 45m
Nonstop
AA 1275 7M8-Boeing 737MAX 8 Passenger
First
One way (Non-refundable)
$ 540 per person
 
acavpics
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Sep 07, 2021 1:28 am

Out of curiosity, what are US airlines forecasting by way of international travel for 2022? Do they expect at least some of safe, quarantine free travel between the US and Carribean, Eastern Asia, and Europe during the next year?

Barring another world-wide catastrophe, is it expected that international travel in and out of the US will be at least 50%-60% normal by the end of 2022? Maybe more? Or maybe less?

Just wondering
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Sep 07, 2021 1:33 am

There are more high net worth individuals yes, and they are traveling more than ever.
Also in part due to more / acceptance of remote work they are spending more time than ever living and commuting from second / vacation / resort town / mountain / coastal homes.

These are generally not corporate people, these are often high net worth individuals who own private businesses. Real estate investors, hospitality industry propertiers,
Car dealership owners, franchise owners;, etc, etc

These are not corporate level director or VP types. The ones that still are not back to extensive business travel, on commercial.
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Sep 07, 2021 1:39 am

Not the final price for sure but this is information is current on their web site https://www.paramountbusinessjets.com/a ... n-cj1.html
At least you know the other passenger won't give you COVID . . A Piper Meridian would be even less

Citation CJ1 Private Jet Charter Flights and Prices
The Cessna Citation Jet I, an improvement on the original Citation Jet, provided upgrades in maximum takeoff weight and avionics. Featuring a short minimum runway, the Citation Jet I is able to access a greater number of airports than many of its competitors amongst the class.

The average hourly rental rate of the Citation CJ1 is around 2,550 USD per hour.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Sep 07, 2021 2:20 am

Lmao how this thread not get part 2. Anet mods cray
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Sep 07, 2021 2:21 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
There are more high net worth individuals yes, and they are traveling more than ever.
Also in part due to more / acceptance of remote work they are spending more time than ever living and commuting from second / vacation / resort town / mountain / coastal homes.

These are generally not corporate people, these are often high net worth individuals who own private businesses. Real estate investors, hospitality industry propertiers,
Car dealership owners, franchise owners;, etc, etc

These are not corporate level director or VP types. The ones that still are not back to extensive business travel, on commercial.
the point is the idea that private is gonna take over is not based in reality. You can’t just have hundreds of thousands of private jets flying daily all of a sudden
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Sep 07, 2021 2:30 am

Exactly...it’s a rounding error at this point
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Sep 07, 2021 4:48 am

MohawkWeekend wrote:
Not the final price for sure but this is information is current on their web site https://www.paramountbusinessjets.com/a ... n-cj1.html
At least you know the other passenger won't give you COVID . . A Piper Meridian would be even less

Citation CJ1 Private Jet Charter Flights and Prices
The Cessna Citation Jet I, an improvement on the original Citation Jet, provided upgrades in maximum takeoff weight and avionics. Featuring a short minimum runway, the Citation Jet I is able to access a greater number of airports than many of its competitors amongst the class.

The average hourly rental rate of the Citation CJ1 is around 2,550 USD per hour.


You’re severely underestimating the cost of private charter. For example, I had a client who traveled VNY-LAS-VNY same day every week. The total cost would varies between $33K-$40K, which covers 1-8 passengers. Catering (alcohol) adds to the cost.

And I’ve worked with multiple people who’ve purchased private hets, including some well know individuals I’m sure you’re familiar with. No matter how much we warn them, they’re always shocked at how much ownership costs: hundreds of thousands, if not millions, annually just in storage, parking, general maintenance, property taxes, etc.

It’s a mode of travel that few individuals and businesses (largely entertainment) can afford, and ultimately will remain a niche form of travel.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Sep 07, 2021 5:57 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
MohawkWeekend wrote:
The Citation that recently went down in Connecticut had 2 passengers - Doctors.

I don't know whether they were flying on business or vacations. But I believe there are a lot more people flying private because 1) Americans with really good jobs ($250k plus) usually have 401k and 403b that are worth millions and houses that are worth millions. $20 to $30 k isn't really a show stopper.
2) People with money won't put up with the US airline experience anymore. We recently had an incident at CLE were a passenger from NY assaulted a teenage in the TSA line. It's not just crazy on the planes.

Non-ULCC AIrline's absolutely need every high revenue passengers to be profitable and survive. We're going to see that in the first earnings statements after payroll support ends.


No, people aren’t going to withdrawn funds from their retirement accounts, or tap into the equity of their homes, to pay for private charters. Private charters are insanely expensive and will continue to appeal to a small, niche demographic. Many wealth people lack the cash flow to travel by private charters regularly.

And yes, people are fustrated with the commercial aviation experience. But no, they’re not going to trade their families $500 tickets on F9 to MCO for a $50,000 private charter jet. This thread is getting sillier.

You, are completely missing the point, and That is a pretty uninformed opinion. Fractional ownership has changed the cost calculation forever, and the innovation of on demand charters is changing it even more.

We aren’t talking about pax that spend hours searching skiplagged for the cheapest fares. Just like the late 90’s when fractional was introduced, an entirely new generation is learning about the convenience of GA. We are talking about the airlines best paying customers finding alternatives that are worth the extra costs. And it isn’t just jets anymore. New aircraft like the PC 12, or the TBM allow travel for even less cost. Operators like UP/DPJ, any number of Jet Cards, or JSX to name just a couple, have made booking such trips almost as easy as booking a J seat. And without the hassle of long parking shuttle rides, crowds, and TSA anal examinations. That convenience is worth even more now, to some, than it was just two years ago.

Anecdotally, in the hangar next to my small plane, is a TBM that belongs to a small local company owned by a father/daughter team. Mother is a former B-list actress that still travels around doing appearances. Before covid, mother often flew charter, while Father/Daughter travelled mostly commercial. Starting in 2020, they all began flying charters, but ran into issues with availability. So they teamed up with another small local company and bought a TBM, almost jet speed and comfort at MUCH less cost, with a power-by-the-hour maintenance contract, finding a local pilot on extended leave from a regional to fly it.

The plane is gone all the time, flying 3-4 days a week mostly east of the Mississippi. The pilot is happy as hell, home almost every night, making a bit more money than as a regional captain, and not having to fly the line anymore, away from home for days at a time.

This is just one story of many. My now-home airport has 55,000 sq ft plus of new hangar space opening shortly, and it is all spoken for by jets, or turbines.

Will the numbers of travelers have an appreciable impact on traffic numbers? Probably not… But the 10-15 premium paying pax up front are the ones who pay the bills at the majors, not the 75 super-discount pax in the back. The loss of even a small percentage of these can have a huge impact on the bottom line, as was clearly demonstrated in the late 90’s when fractional ownership was introduced.

You don’t have to take my word for it. You can look at flightaware yourself and see the GA traffic on any given weekday, or stop at the local “Executive” level airport and see it for yourself.
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Sep 07, 2021 1:36 pm

And the Delta variant of COVID is going to give GA even more time to grow while the majors are facing the end of payroll support, rising labor costs, high fuel prices and stronger ULCC competition.
 
chrisair
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Sep 07, 2021 6:05 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
$250k? Yeah right. Thats in the demographic that will buy domestic first or maybe splurge on J to Europe for a special trip but not regular customers of private charters.

$2.5 M maybe.


Jet Cards make private more "affordable." Wheels Up for someone with $250k/yr isn't unreasonable. They'll use it once or twice a year and all is good. But nobody is going to pull from their 401k/403b/home equity to pay for private. I mean, really?

If you want to see how busy private is, NetJets has suspended all jet card sales.

Cubsrule wrote:
Does any road warrior have an employer or clients who will pay for charter?


There are certain cases where companies can (and do) justify the use of a company jet or charter. You need to move many people between sites routinely? It's faster/easier/cheaper to charter especially when you look at the routing. Walmart is famous for moving large groups of people via their jets. If you're based in Bentonville, Ark., and need to get a team of six to the stores in Spokane, Boise and Idaho Falls, it's far more efficient to move them via your own metal than sending them on all over creation on commercial.
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Sep 07, 2021 6:27 pm

chrisair wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
$250k? Yeah right. Thats in the demographic that will buy domestic first or maybe splurge on J to Europe for a special trip but not regular customers of private charters.

$2.5 M maybe.


Jet Cards make private more "affordable." Wheels Up for someone with $250k/yr isn't unreasonable. They'll use it once or twice a year and all is good. But nobody is going to pull from their 401k/403b/home equity to pay for private. I mean, really?


My reference to the value of a 401k is not that one is going to take money from it. But if you are sitting on one valued at $10 million - some people in the US are going to feel like they are rich. And they are. So now instead of putting more money away for a rainy day, some American's say - I aint leaving it for the kids. I deserve a - Macmansion, yacht, 100k SUV, second home and yes no more flying with the weirdo's.

I earlier used $250 k each for 2 passengers so I was really thinking of household income of $500k .
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Sep 07, 2021 7:10 pm

In relative to the topic, the discussion of private jets is just silly. Private jets are a luxury, and appeal toward a niche demographic. Few people are going to shell out $10K (at its lowest price point) to fly from Van Nuys to Denver when then can purchase a First Class ticket for a few hundred bucks (which sells for less than $200 at its lowest price point) per person.

Private charter isn’t going to make much more than a dent in the overall commercial market, and to assert otherwise is just silly.
 
DoctorVenkman
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Sep 07, 2021 7:18 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
chrisair wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
$250k? Yeah right. Thats in the demographic that will buy domestic first or maybe splurge on J to Europe for a special trip but not regular customers of private charters.

$2.5 M maybe.


Jet Cards make private more "affordable." Wheels Up for someone with $250k/yr isn't unreasonable. They'll use it once or twice a year and all is good. But nobody is going to pull from their 401k/403b/home equity to pay for private. I mean, really?


My reference to the value of a 401k is not that one is going to take money from it. But if you are sitting on one valued at $10 million - some people in the US are going to feel like they are rich. And they are. So now instead of putting more money away for a rainy day, some American's say - I aint leaving it for the kids. I deserve a - Macmansion, yacht, 100k SUV, second home and yes no more flying with the weirdo's.

I earlier used $250 k each for 2 passengers so I was really thinking of household income of $500k .


I think you're still off by a factor of 5-10x on the income here. Unless you live in the middle of nowhere with cheap housing, $500k/year gross income is going to mean you have probably $50k-100k disposable after taxes, housing, car payments, insurance, food, saving, etc. At their cheapest rates that would get you 10-20 hours of flying with Wheels Up. So basically that affords you maximum 1-2 roundtrip transcons per year making that kind of money.

No one is going to blow half of their disposable income on a single private transcon flight when they could get a very comfortable J seat for 1/10 of the price on a major carrier. You'd need to be in the position where dropping $50k is nothing to you, and it takes a lot more than $500k/year of income to be in that bracket.
 
tphuang
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Sep 07, 2021 7:38 pm

This is getting out of hand. I can say from personal experience that people making 500k to 1 million are not flying private at all. Now, they will fly business class on any longish flights, but flying private doesn’t make sense in most cases.
 
Brickell305
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Sep 07, 2021 7:55 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
In relative to the topic, the discussion of private jets is just silly. Private jets are a luxury, and appeal toward a niche demographic. Few people are going to shell out $10K (at its lowest price point) to fly from Van Nuys to Denver when then can purchase a First Class ticket for a few hundred bucks (which sells for less than $200 at its lowest price point) per person.

Private charter isn’t going to make much more than a dent in the overall commercial market, and to assert otherwise is just silly.

Agreed. The argument about private flying being a major competitor to commercial flying is on its face ridiculous.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:16 pm

This discussion is flat out ridiculous....we are talking about a laughably small % of the population

35% of private jet owners are worth more than $500M
https://www.vistajet.com/globalassets/d ... report.pdf

But...but...but....what about fractional ownership?!?! That % is also tiny, "25,000 to 30,000 people hold jet card memberships, versus 8,000 to 10,000 people who are fractional owners of private jets"
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/even- ... 2018-04-03
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:51 pm

And if you think JSX is a private jet. It’s not. It’s basically just like contour lol
 
UALFAson
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Sep 07, 2021 10:35 pm

Can we PLEASE just call a truce and stop this discussion of all things private jets? No one is going to convince anyone else and it's just clogging up this thread from factual and/or useful information. Good. Ness.
 
Seat1F
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 08, 2021 12:57 pm

Meanwhile, a new story is out this morning that the hoped-for uptick in post Labor Day business travel is not likely to happen till later. Office re-openings are going much slower than anticipated. Story on CNN:
https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/08/business ... index.html
 
Western727
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 08, 2021 2:29 pm

Seat1F wrote:
Meanwhile, a new story is out this morning that the hoped-for uptick in post Labor Day business travel is not likely to happen till later. Office re-openings are going much slower than anticipated. Story on CNN:
https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/08/business ... index.html


:banghead:

Nonetheless, thank you for sharing.
 
Seat1F
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 08, 2021 2:46 pm

Western727 wrote:
Seat1F wrote:
Meanwhile, a new story is out this morning that the hoped-for uptick in post Labor Day business travel is not likely to happen till later. Office re-openings are going much slower than anticipated. Story on CNN:
https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/08/business ... index.html


:banghead:

Nonetheless, thank you for sharing.

Sorry my posting offended you. My point was just to ad information to the discussion that business travel is slow to rebound. Large companies announcing in the last 24 hours that office re-openings are delayed and also that business travel plans for the fall are being curtailed is relevant to the discussion about how rest-of-year travel trends will be.
 
Western727
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 08, 2021 2:50 pm

Seat1F wrote:
Western727 wrote:
Seat1F wrote:
Meanwhile, a new story is out this morning that the hoped-for uptick in post Labor Day business travel is not likely to happen till later. Office re-openings are going much slower than anticipated. Story on CNN:
https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/08/business ... index.html


:banghead:

Nonetheless, thank you for sharing.

Sorry my posting offended you. My point was just to ad information to the discussion that business travel is slow to rebound. Large companies announcing in the last 24 hours that office re-openings are delayed and also that business travel plans for the fall are being curtailed is relevant to the discussion about how rest-of-year travel trends will be.


My apologies for my lack of clarity; I was not offended at all by your post. I was expressing my frustration with COVID's ongoing impact on air travel.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 08, 2021 3:11 pm

Yep.....a lot of large companies rolled-back office reopening from post Labor Day either to October or in some cases January.
Rising cases and Delta variant.
This isn't really new news this week, a lot of this started happening a month ago.
Most companies are giving 30 days notice on their reopening plans.

That said, there are many companies that are just taking a "do what you are comfortable with" approach. Not having any "big-bang" reopening but letting people come into offices if the want, letting people travel if they want and there is a business need. Its a delicate balance as they don't want to "force" or "mandate" anything just yet.

That said, I kind of agree with the CEO, I think it was from Goldman Sachs, that said "if you are comfortable eating in a restaurant, or going on a plane for vacation then you can come into the office"

This is where I see small and/or private businesses doing just that. We don't have to just through bureaucratic red-tape to do anything. We are in the office, traveling, and on-site at clients. I also can come and go from the office as it makes sense.
 
Seat1F
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 08, 2021 3:36 pm

Western727 wrote:
Seat1F wrote:
Western727 wrote:

:banghead:

Nonetheless, thank you for sharing.

Sorry my posting offended you. My point was just to ad information to the discussion that business travel is slow to rebound. Large companies announcing in the last 24 hours that office re-openings are delayed and also that business travel plans for the fall are being curtailed is relevant to the discussion about how rest-of-year travel trends will be.


My apologies for my lack of clarity; I was not offended at all by your post. I was expressing my frustration with COVID's ongoing impact on air travel.

Sorry. I misinterpreted your post. My bad.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 08, 2021 3:57 pm

WSJ also has the basic same story about sluggish business travel recovery and how 2022 likely won't be very robust either as companies have trimmed travel budgets.
With ever more remote work and the ease in holding virtual meetings, the bar for in-person meetings has become higher as story mentions.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/business-t ... mail_share

I've gone from 200,000+ annual miles to zero. Have not been on a plane since Feb 2020 and certainly won't this year as none of my clients are back in their offices for visits, and who knows about 2022.

My wife who works for a global Fortune-200 company is still in work from home mode at least until mid-January, not having been in the office since March 2020. The company has already said they would adopt a hybrid model when they return, so in my view, the historic business travel rhythms are out the door.
Last edited by LAXintl on Wed Sep 08, 2021 3:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
LNCS0930
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 08, 2021 3:59 pm

Things could get awfully interesting in here tomorrow potentially. There is expectation that it’s at least a realistic possibility President Biden will demand vaccination for air travel effective some time in a few weeks or next month. With 40 something odd percent of the US population unvaccinated I would imagine that would lower holiday travel demand just a bit. There would be plenty of pilots and flight attendants sitting around
 
Western727
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 08, 2021 4:29 pm

Seat1F wrote:
Sorry. I misinterpreted your post. My bad.


No biggie. :bigthumbsup:
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 08, 2021 4:37 pm

LAXintl wrote:
WSJ also has the basic same story about sluggish business travel recovery and how 2022 likely won't be very robust either as companies have trimmed travel budgets.
With ever more remote work and the ease in holding virtual meetings, the bar for in-person meetings has become higher as story mentions.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/business-t ... mail_share

I've gone from 200,000+ annual miles to zero. Have not been on a plane since Feb 2020 and certainly won't this year as none of my clients are back in their offices for visits, and who knows about 2022.

My wife who works for a global Fortune-200 company is still in work from home mode at least until mid-January, not having been in the office since March 2020. The company has already said they would adopt a hybrid model when they return, so in my view, the historic business travel rhythms are out the door.


A few things:

1) No one knows what the future holds. Not even the people who run these companies.
2) There is probably going to be a different response from big and small companies. Large companies used to travel for internal business constantly. That is the portion of business travel that will probably either be slow to come back and come back only as a portion. Sales, training, and account management, field service, and small company travel will probably be back at pre-pandemic levels.
3) Attitudes vary greatly across industry and geography. People in California and the Northeast seem to be happy camping out at home. People in the middle of the country are largely over the pandemic. Eventually there probably will a merging of these two philosophies but literally no one knows what that looks like. I would predict that industries like Tech will probably jump into remote business much quicker than an industry like energy.

What does the future look like? As I mentioned literally no one knows. If I were to place a bet in Vegas, I would gamble on business travel being anywhere from 75-85% of 2019 levels. But that's just a guess based on what I've seen in this section of the industry.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 08, 2021 4:46 pm

LNCS0930 wrote:
Things could get awfully interesting in here tomorrow potentially. There is expectation that it’s at least a realistic possibility President Biden will demand vaccination for air travel effective some time in a few weeks or next month. With 40 something odd percent of the US population unvaccinated I would imagine that would lower holiday travel demand just a bit. There would be plenty of pilots and flight attendants sitting around


If there's no exception for children, a vaccination requirement would all but destroy holiday travel demand. At this point, it doesn't sound like vaccination for kids by the holidays is realistic.
 
LNCS0930
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 08, 2021 4:52 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
LNCS0930 wrote:
Things could get awfully interesting in here tomorrow potentially. There is expectation that it’s at least a realistic possibility President Biden will demand vaccination for air travel effective some time in a few weeks or next month. With 40 something odd percent of the US population unvaccinated I would imagine that would lower holiday travel demand just a bit. There would be plenty of pilots and flight attendants sitting around


If there's no exception for children, a vaccination requirement would all but destroy holiday travel demand. At this point, it doesn't sound like vaccination for kids by the holidays is realistic.


I would imagine any exemptions would only be under 12
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 08, 2021 5:51 pm

LNCS0930 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
LNCS0930 wrote:
Things could get awfully interesting in here tomorrow potentially. There is expectation that it’s at least a realistic possibility President Biden will demand vaccination for air travel effective some time in a few weeks or next month. With 40 something odd percent of the US population unvaccinated I would imagine that would lower holiday travel demand just a bit. There would be plenty of pilots and flight attendants sitting around


If there's no exception for children, a vaccination requirement would all but destroy holiday travel demand. At this point, it doesn't sound like vaccination for kids by the holidays is realistic.


I would imagine any exemptions would only be under 12


Where did you see this? I can find nothing about it.
 
LNCS0930
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 08, 2021 5:54 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
LNCS0930 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

If there's no exception for children, a vaccination requirement would all but destroy holiday travel demand. At this point, it doesn't sound like vaccination for kids by the holidays is realistic.


I would imagine any exemptions would only be under 12


Where did you see this? I can find nothing about it.


There has been no official word. It’s just belief that Biden said he’s announcing a 6 point plan most believe it’s logical that would be one of the 6 points as Trudeau has already done this in Canada. The one thing which gives me pause is that I feel Biden would never broach such a thing without some discussion with airline CEOs first and you’d think we’d see some leaks of that so maybe he’s not quite going to push that button yet, but it’s on the table for sure
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 08, 2021 6:32 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
A few things:

1) No one knows what the future holds. Not even the people who run these companies.
2) There is probably going to be a different response from big and small companies. Large companies used to travel for internal business constantly. That is the portion of business travel that will probably either be slow to come back and come back only as a portion. Sales, training, and account management, field service, and small company travel will probably be back at pre-pandemic levels.
3) Attitudes vary greatly across industry and geography. People in California and the Northeast seem to be happy camping out at home. People in the middle of the country are largely over the pandemic. Eventually there probably will a merging of these two philosophies but literally no one knows what that looks like. I would predict that industries like Tech will probably jump into remote business much quicker than an industry like energy.

What does the future look like? As I mentioned literally no one knows. If I were to place a bet in Vegas, I would gamble on business travel being anywhere from 75-85% of 2019 levels. But that's just a guess based on what I've seen in this section of the industry.


I agree that the best we can do is guess what a post-pandemic environment will look like, but those guessing are becoming increasingly educated: remote work is here to stay, and a significant number of companies now have acknowledged that they can permanently reduce business travel going forward. Of course, we don't know to what degree remote work will be tolerated, or how much companies will reduce their travel budgets by. Ultimately, energy companies in Houston are still competing for much of the same talent as a tech company in California or financial company in the Northeast. I would be shocked if "talented" workers don't show a preference toward companies with a WFH policy, which will ultimately force Middle America to adapt.

One thing is clear: it's probable we won't return to 2019 business traffic revenues for awhile, which will force the legacies to adapt. That's largely in contrast to the dominate narrative within this forum.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6482
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 08, 2021 6:49 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
A few things:

1) No one knows what the future holds. Not even the people who run these companies.
2) There is probably going to be a different response from big and small companies. Large companies used to travel for internal business constantly. That is the portion of business travel that will probably either be slow to come back and come back only as a portion. Sales, training, and account management, field service, and small company travel will probably be back at pre-pandemic levels.
3) Attitudes vary greatly across industry and geography. People in California and the Northeast seem to be happy camping out at home. People in the middle of the country are largely over the pandemic. Eventually there probably will a merging of these two philosophies but literally no one knows what that looks like. I would predict that industries like Tech will probably jump into remote business much quicker than an industry like energy.

What does the future look like? As I mentioned literally no one knows. If I were to place a bet in Vegas, I would gamble on business travel being anywhere from 75-85% of 2019 levels. But that's just a guess based on what I've seen in this section of the industry.


I agree that the best we can do is guess what a post-pandemic environment will look like, but those guessing are becoming increasingly educated: remote work is here to stay, and a significant number of companies now have acknowledged that they can permanently reduce business travel going forward. Of course, we don't know to what degree remote work will be tolerated, or how much companies will reduce their travel budgets by. Ultimately, energy companies in Houston are still competing for much of the same talent as a tech company in California or financial company in the Northeast. I would be shocked if "talented" workers don't show a preference toward companies with a WFH policy, which will ultimately force Middle America to adapt.

One thing is clear: it's probable we won't return to 2019 business traffic revenues for awhile, which will force the legacies to adapt. That's largely in contrast to the dominate narrative within this forum.


But thats still a big generalization. Saying "talented" workers are uniform in preferences doesnt make much sense to me.

In a recent survey by USA Today, basically:

25% of people want to return to the office full time
25% of people want to work remote full time
50% want a hybrid office/remote environment

The problem is that there is too much black and white. The idea that full time WFH is the new norm or that things will be just like they were are both probably wrong. Headlines exist to shock and get clicks, not to inform.

The most vulnerable part of business travel is internally based travel. Business travel that runs between businesses or is field service, training, sales based is far less vulnerable.

As for Middle America having to adapt, I doubt that the coasts or the center of the country are going to adapt to each other. There will be some mixing of the two if I had to guess.
Last edited by LAXdude1023 on Wed Sep 08, 2021 6:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6482
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 08, 2021 6:56 pm

LNCS0930 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
LNCS0930 wrote:

I would imagine any exemptions would only be under 12


Where did you see this? I can find nothing about it.


There has been no official word. It’s just belief that Biden said he’s announcing a 6 point plan most believe it’s logical that would be one of the 6 points as Trudeau has already done this in Canada. The one thing which gives me pause is that I feel Biden would never broach such a thing without some discussion with airline CEOs first and you’d think we’d see some leaks of that so maybe he’s not quite going to push that button yet, but it’s on the table for sure


For the record, Ive had Covid and have been vaccinated so this wouldnt affect me personally.

I would say that any air ban on unvaccinated travelers is highly unlikely. I get that they could pull it off in Canada, but were different here for better and worse.

1) Were much more religious. Too many people will claim religious exemption and run to the courts to stop it and they probably will.
2) The airline CEOs would fight this tooth and nail. This would especially hit NK, F9, and the leisure based airlines hard. I say that because those airline cater to people who dont fly nearly as often and arent really involved in the corporate world. Statistically they are less likely to be vaccinated.

I wish more people would get vaccinated. This pandemic would be a lot different if the hold outs would. That said, I cant see federally mandated vaccines for anything other than their direct employees.
 
User avatar
mercure1
Posts: 5239
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 5:13 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 08, 2021 7:03 pm

Atleast here in Europe, another pressure point against the full return of business air travel is the rising cost and ongoing pressure on companies to reduce their carbon footprint and general environmental impact.
Probably only matter of time until such concerns become ever larger consideration among U.S. companies as well.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 1715
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 08, 2021 7:04 pm

LNCS0930 wrote:
Things could get awfully interesting in here tomorrow potentially. There is expectation that it’s at least a realistic possibility President Biden will demand vaccination for air travel effective some time in a few weeks or next month. With 40 something odd percent of the US population unvaccinated I would imagine that would lower holiday travel demand just a bit. There would be plenty of pilots and flight attendants sitting around

If he does that, it is game over for the US Airlines, and they know it. Which, IMO, could very well be the point. And some wonder why chartering has gone through the roof? At $1,700 an hour average to Charter a TBM for 5-6 passengers, the cost equation gets easier, when you have to deal with bs like this.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 1715
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 08, 2021 7:06 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
LNCS0930 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

If there's no exception for children, a vaccination requirement would all but destroy holiday travel demand. At this point, it doesn't sound like vaccination for kids by the holidays is realistic.


I would imagine any exemptions would only be under 12


Where did you see this? I can find nothing about it.

I haven’t seen the most recent news about it yet, but they have been talking about doing it for a couple of months now.

Edit:
Looks like Quantas is jumping out on their own to do this.
https://www.traveller.com.au/qantas-cov ... hts-h1yggn
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6482
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 08, 2021 7:34 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
LNCS0930 wrote:

I would imagine any exemptions would only be under 12


Where did you see this? I can find nothing about it.

I haven’t seen the most recent news about it yet, but they have been talking about doing it for a couple of months now.

Edit:
Looks like Quantas is jumping out on their own to do this.
https://www.traveller.com.au/qantas-cov ... hts-h1yggn


But again, we have completely different dynamics in America.

If the airline themselves decides to do it, thats fine. If the Government mandates it, theres no shot in hell it survives the courts.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 675
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 08, 2021 7:36 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
A few things:

1) No one knows what the future holds. Not even the people who run these companies.
2) There is probably going to be a different response from big and small companies. Large companies used to travel for internal business constantly. That is the portion of business travel that will probably either be slow to come back and come back only as a portion. Sales, training, and account management, field service, and small company travel will probably be back at pre-pandemic levels.
3) Attitudes vary greatly across industry and geography. People in California and the Northeast seem to be happy camping out at home. People in the middle of the country are largely over the pandemic. Eventually there probably will a merging of these two philosophies but literally no one knows what that looks like. I would predict that industries like Tech will probably jump into remote business much quicker than an industry like energy.

What does the future look like? As I mentioned literally no one knows. If I were to place a bet in Vegas, I would gamble on business travel being anywhere from 75-85% of 2019 levels. But that's just a guess based on what I've seen in this section of the industry.


I agree that the best we can do is guess what a post-pandemic environment will look like, but those guessing are becoming increasingly educated: remote work is here to stay, and a significant number of companies now have acknowledged that they can permanently reduce business travel going forward. Of course, we don't know to what degree remote work will be tolerated, or how much companies will reduce their travel budgets by. Ultimately, energy companies in Houston are still competing for much of the same talent as a tech company in California or financial company in the Northeast. I would be shocked if "talented" workers don't show a preference toward companies with a WFH policy, which will ultimately force Middle America to adapt.

One thing is clear: it's probable we won't return to 2019 business traffic revenues for awhile, which will force the legacies to adapt. That's largely in contrast to the dominate narrative within this forum.


But thats still a big generalization. Saying "talented" workers are uniform in preferences doesnt make much sense to me.

In a recent survey by USA Today, basically:

25% of people want to return to the office full time
25% of people want to work remote full time
50% want a hybrid office/remote environment

The problem is that there is too much black and white. The idea that full time WFH is the new norm or that things will be just like they were are both probably wrong. Headlines exist to shock and get clicks, not to inform.

The most vulnerable part of business travel is internally based travel. Business travel that runs between businesses or is field service, training, sales based is far less vulnerable.

As for Middle America having to adapt, I doubt that the coasts or the center of the country are going to adapt to each other. There will be some mixing of the two if I had to guess.


Yes, I'm making generalizations, but you're making stronger generalizations than I am. We're in the mist of what will be the most competitive -- for employers -- job market in probably our lives. For example, there are more people retiring from the accounting/finance industry than there are people looking to join it (AICPA projects the majority of CPAs will be retired by the end of the decade). Large companies recruit nationally (generally at large colleges/universities) for talent -- if the majority of the working population wants the ability to WFH in some capacity, companies in Texas, etc. will have to adapt, regardless of their ideology. Of course, the attitudes toward COVID/ WFH/ etc. among professional, college educated employees in Texas... doesn't differ much from California, Illinois or New York to begin with. It's inevitable that if employers in places like Texas, Georgia, etc. want to retain their talent -- much of which came from out-of-state to begin with -- they'll have to adapt.

Early last year, I advocated that employers would not accept a WFH environment, and that business travel would return to 2019 levels... but at this point, it's pretty clear that will not be the case.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5701
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 08, 2021 8:03 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
LNCS0930 wrote:
Things could get awfully interesting in here tomorrow potentially. There is expectation that it’s at least a realistic possibility President Biden will demand vaccination for air travel effective some time in a few weeks or next month. With 40 something odd percent of the US population unvaccinated I would imagine that would lower holiday travel demand just a bit. There would be plenty of pilots and flight attendants sitting around

If he does that, it is game over for the US Airlines, and they know it. Which, IMO, could very well be the point. And some wonder why chartering has gone through the roof? At $1,700 an hour average to Charter a TBM for 5-6 passengers, the cost equation gets easier, when you have to deal with bs like this.

Most people are vaccinated. This would get a lot more people vaccinated. And you’d run out of TBMs and pilots pretty quickly. I’ve heard from multiple people the only way they’d get vaccinated if they werent allowed to travel

But I can’t find any information about this as being true. Care to provide a link that isn’t fake news?
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6482
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 08, 2021 8:30 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:

I agree that the best we can do is guess what a post-pandemic environment will look like, but those guessing are becoming increasingly educated: remote work is here to stay, and a significant number of companies now have acknowledged that they can permanently reduce business travel going forward. Of course, we don't know to what degree remote work will be tolerated, or how much companies will reduce their travel budgets by. Ultimately, energy companies in Houston are still competing for much of the same talent as a tech company in California or financial company in the Northeast. I would be shocked if "talented" workers don't show a preference toward companies with a WFH policy, which will ultimately force Middle America to adapt.

One thing is clear: it's probable we won't return to 2019 business traffic revenues for awhile, which will force the legacies to adapt. That's largely in contrast to the dominate narrative within this forum.


But thats still a big generalization. Saying "talented" workers are uniform in preferences doesnt make much sense to me.

In a recent survey by USA Today, basically:

25% of people want to return to the office full time
25% of people want to work remote full time
50% want a hybrid office/remote environment

The problem is that there is too much black and white. The idea that full time WFH is the new norm or that things will be just like they were are both probably wrong. Headlines exist to shock and get clicks, not to inform.

The most vulnerable part of business travel is internally based travel. Business travel that runs between businesses or is field service, training, sales based is far less vulnerable.

As for Middle America having to adapt, I doubt that the coasts or the center of the country are going to adapt to each other. There will be some mixing of the two if I had to guess.


Yes, I'm making generalizations, but you're making stronger generalizations than I am. We're in the mist of what will be the most competitive -- for employers -- job market in probably our lives. For example, there are more people retiring from the accounting/finance industry than there are people looking to join it (AICPA projects the majority of CPAs will be retired by the end of the decade). Large companies recruit nationally (generally at large colleges/universities) for talent -- if the majority of the working population wants the ability to WFH in some capacity, companies in Texas, etc. will have to adapt, regardless of their ideology. Of course, the attitudes toward COVID/ WFH/ etc. among professional, college educated employees in Texas... doesn't differ much from California, Illinois or New York to begin with. It's inevitable that if employers in places like Texas, Georgia, etc. want to retain their talent -- much of which came from out-of-state to begin with -- they'll have to adapt.

Early last year, I advocated that employers would not accept a WFH environment, and that business travel would return to 2019 levels... but at this point, it's pretty clear that will not be the case.


I’m definitely not making more generalizations than you. Not only have you made more generalizations but you’ve connected a number of dots based on nothing but your generalizations. I acknowledge I’m making a few as well.

But it really is a pointless exercise to debate what we can’t possibly know.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 675
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 08, 2021 10:07 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:

But thats still a big generalization. Saying "talented" workers are uniform in preferences doesnt make much sense to me.

In a recent survey by USA Today, basically:

25% of people want to return to the office full time
25% of people want to work remote full time
50% want a hybrid office/remote environment

The problem is that there is too much black and white. The idea that full time WFH is the new norm or that things will be just like they were are both probably wrong. Headlines exist to shock and get clicks, not to inform.

The most vulnerable part of business travel is internally based travel. Business travel that runs between businesses or is field service, training, sales based is far less vulnerable.

As for Middle America having to adapt, I doubt that the coasts or the center of the country are going to adapt to each other. There will be some mixing of the two if I had to guess.


Yes, I'm making generalizations, but you're making stronger generalizations than I am. We're in the mist of what will be the most competitive -- for employers -- job market in probably our lives. For example, there are more people retiring from the accounting/finance industry than there are people looking to join it (AICPA projects the majority of CPAs will be retired by the end of the decade). Large companies recruit nationally (generally at large colleges/universities) for talent -- if the majority of the working population wants the ability to WFH in some capacity, companies in Texas, etc. will have to adapt, regardless of their ideology. Of course, the attitudes toward COVID/ WFH/ etc. among professional, college educated employees in Texas... doesn't differ much from California, Illinois or New York to begin with. It's inevitable that if employers in places like Texas, Georgia, etc. want to retain their talent -- much of which came from out-of-state to begin with -- they'll have to adapt.

Early last year, I advocated that employers would not accept a WFH environment, and that business travel would return to 2019 levels... but at this point, it's pretty clear that will not be the case.


I’m definitely not making more generalizations than you. Not only have you made more generalizations but you’ve connected a number of dots based on nothing but your generalizations. I acknowledge I’m making a few as well.

But it really is a pointless exercise to debate what we can’t possibly know.


I'm trying to cancel the noise and have a discussion based upon available facts, but some posters are adamant about including their ideology in their assertions. I keep reading about the "restrictions" that exist in some areas of the country, leading to people vacationing in places without restrictions like Texas... but nobody's identified those restrictions, nor does data support there's a surge in Texas tourism. DEN did record, through July, a 7 point increase in connecting passengers, which tells me the ideology-driven conclusions being pulled are inaccurate. Nor do any restrictions exist.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 675
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Sep 08, 2021 10:13 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
LNCS0930 wrote:
Things could get awfully interesting in here tomorrow potentially. There is expectation that it’s at least a realistic possibility President Biden will demand vaccination for air travel effective some time in a few weeks or next month. With 40 something odd percent of the US population unvaccinated I would imagine that would lower holiday travel demand just a bit. There would be plenty of pilots and flight attendants sitting around

If he does that, it is game over for the US Airlines, and they know it. Which, IMO, could very well be the point. And some wonder why chartering has gone through the roof? At $1,700 an hour average to Charter a TBM for 5-6 passengers, the cost equation gets easier, when you have to deal with bs like this.


Let's stick to facts. You do realize that over 97% of households making over $200K are vaccinated? Nearly two-thirds of those who are unvaccinated reside in a household whose income is less than $50K, with the majority in households with less than $35K.
 
LNCS0930
Posts: 222
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:17 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Sep 09, 2021 2:53 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
LNCS0930 wrote:
Things could get awfully interesting in here tomorrow potentially. There is expectation that it’s at least a realistic possibility President Biden will demand vaccination for air travel effective some time in a few weeks or next month. With 40 something odd percent of the US population unvaccinated I would imagine that would lower holiday travel demand just a bit. There would be plenty of pilots and flight attendants sitting around

If he does that, it is game over for the US Airlines, and they know it. Which, IMO, could very well be the point. And some wonder why chartering has gone through the roof? At $1,700 an hour average to Charter a TBM for 5-6 passengers, the cost equation gets easier, when you have to deal with bs like this.


Let's stick to facts. You do realize that over 97% of households making over $200K are vaccinated? Nearly two-thirds of those who are unvaccinated reside in a household whose income is less than $50K, with the majority in households with less than $35K.


I would imagine it’s a lock the major carriers lose 20-25% of bookings and the low cost carriers maybe 30-40 so it’ll be fairly bad no matter what
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 15305
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Sep 09, 2021 2:56 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
LNCS0930 wrote:
Things could get awfully interesting in here tomorrow potentially. There is expectation that it’s at least a realistic possibility President Biden will demand vaccination for air travel effective some time in a few weeks or next month. With 40 something odd percent of the US population unvaccinated I would imagine that would lower holiday travel demand just a bit. There would be plenty of pilots and flight attendants sitting around

If he does that, it is game over for the US Airlines, and they know it. Which, IMO, could very well be the point. And some wonder why chartering has gone through the roof? At $1,700 an hour average to Charter a TBM for 5-6 passengers, the cost equation gets easier, when you have to deal with bs like this.


Let's stick to facts. You do realize that over 97% of households making over $200K are vaccinated? Nearly two-thirds of those who are unvaccinated reside in a household whose income is less than $50K, with the majority in households with less than $35K.


But, again, that may not matter for leisure travel in the short term because many of us have children who are involuntarily unvaccinated regardless of their parents’ and their views on the merits of vaccination.
 
 
MohawkWeekend
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Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Sep 09, 2021 11:52 am

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