mcogator wrote:

EU is reopening to vaccinated Americans. Let's see if it's reciprocal.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-countries-agree-ease-travel-restictions-non-eu-visitors-2021-05-19/

I’m happy to see it but it’s too late for this summer I think. We’re almost into June, how many people are going to book last minute summer vacations to EU on such a short notice? Especially if you consider how long the usual EU booking window is. I’d expect to see a light schedule added back in by the US 3, something even smaller than the typical winter schedule. Next spring/summer, its off to the races (I hope).

ABEguy wrote:

mcogator wrote:

EU is reopening to vaccinated Americans. Let's see if it's reciprocal.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-countries-agree-ease-travel-restictions-non-eu-visitors-2021-05-19/

I’m happy to see it but it’s too late for this summer I think. We’re almost into June, how many people are going to book last minute summer vacations to EU on such a short notice? Especially if you consider how long the usual EU booking window is. I’d expect to see a light schedule added back in by the US 3, something even smaller than the typical winter schedule. Next spring/summer, its off to the races (I hope).

I think quite a few people have already booked trips for this summer based on the expectation they would reopen to vaccinated tourists this summer, and others were waiting for confirmation. It's reasonable to believe that airlines might start adding frequencies on existing service. As of right now, flights are still reasonably priced. My gf and I booked LAX-PRG for the end of July to go to a wedding. When we purchased the flights in March, flights were $700 rt in Main cabin, and now they're around $1200. For one stop options, AF and BA have two frequencies to choose from, LH and KL have one.

ABEguy wrote:

mcogator wrote:

EU is reopening to vaccinated Americans. Let's see if it's reciprocal.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-countries-agree-ease-travel-restictions-non-eu-visitors-2021-05-19/

I’m happy to see it but it’s too late for this summer I think. We’re almost into June, how many people are going to book last minute summer vacations to EU on such a short notice? Especially if you consider how long the usual EU booking window is. I’d expect to see a light schedule added back in by the US 3, something even smaller than the typical winter schedule. Next spring/summer, its off to the races (I hope).

Agreed. International travel is more or less done for the summer. Especially June/July. 90-95% of Americans have already made summer travel plans. There might be some Europeans traveling westbound but even they have most likely made most of their travel plans already or don't want to travel due to restrictions in their countries. I do think we will see the first glimmer of hope for Int'l travel by December when load factors will recover to 60-70 percent of 2019. By next summer, I believe Int'l travel will be back to 2019 levels and might even surpass it just like I believe that we will see points of domestic travel this summer surpass 2019 levels.

Regarding TATL travel, there are a few more aspects than what has already been discussed.

1) There is some not-insignificant amount of "pent-up" VFR-purpose related travel that is posed to unlock as soon as its feasible in enter respective countries. I personally know many people that will get on a plane to the UK and Germany as soon as its feasible without onerous quarantines or testing regimes. Once the countries can figure out how to make it work, there are people that have not seen parents/siblings/children/grandchildren in almost 2 years now.

2) Contrary to popular belief, as a whole, during summer months there is actually more Europe-originating traffic than US-originating. Now, when taking it down to specific countries/routes that will vary, as US-Italy is highly seasonal with US-point of sale leisure dominating during summer. I'm not so sure there are a lot of Europeans ready to flock to the US at this point.

3) With where we are in mid-May, any typical tourism planning time, this isn't the year for all the Clark Griswolds and Ma & Pa Kettle / Rick Steves followers to go their European vacation. It will be far from normal in terms of accommodations, dining, attractions, etc. Europe is still going to be there. I personally wouldn't shell out thousands of dollars for some weird sub-par half-open experiences this summer. Not to mention any travel related issues that could crop-up. Its definitely going to more for the adventurous set this year, or people who just don't care.
'
4) August, September, October are still very much salvageable and in-play. While it doesn't align with those tied to K-12 or college schedules, there is still plenty of time for those not tied to school schedules for things to open up to some sense of normality and get people going for late-summer and fall. Personally, I love going to Europe in September, one of the best months to go in my opinion.

LFs in the 80s........



WN



" Based on current bookings, leisure fare levels in June 2021 are nearing June 2019 levels. The Company continues to experience an increase in bookings farther out on the booking curve, with approximately 55 percent and 35 percent of anticipated bookings currently in place for June and July, respectively. These represent fairly typical future booking patterns"

https://www.southwestairlinesinvestorre ... te-vff.pdf
https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

piedmontf284000 wrote:

ABEguy wrote:

mcogator wrote:

EU is reopening to vaccinated Americans. Let's see if it's reciprocal.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-countries-agree-ease-travel-restictions-non-eu-visitors-2021-05-19/

I’m happy to see it but it’s too late for this summer I think. We’re almost into June, how many people are going to book last minute summer vacations to EU on such a short notice? Especially if you consider how long the usual EU booking window is. I’d expect to see a light schedule added back in by the US 3, something even smaller than the typical winter schedule. Next spring/summer, its off to the races (I hope).

Agreed. International travel is more or less done for the summer. Especially June/July. 90-95% of Americans have already made summer travel plans. There might be some Europeans traveling westbound but even they have most likely made most of their travel plans already or don't want to travel due to restrictions in their countries. I do think we will see the first glimmer of hope for Int'l travel by December when load factors will recover to 60-70 percent of 2019. By next summer, I believe Int'l travel will be back to 2019 levels and might even surpass it just like I believe that we will see points of domestic travel this summer surpass 2019 levels.

If the airlines put out some really cheap round trips to Europe they will sell them. But capacity overall will be much lower

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

Regarding TATL travel, there are a few more aspects than what has already been discussed.

1) There is some not-insignificant amount of "pent-up" VFR-purpose related travel that is posed to unlock as soon as its feasible in enter respective countries. I personally know many people that will get on a plane to the UK and Germany as soon as its feasible without onerous quarantines or testing regimes. Once the countries can figure out how to make it work, there are people that have not seen parents/siblings/children/grandchildren in almost 2 years now.

2) Contrary to popular belief, as a whole, during summer months there is actually more Europe-originating traffic than US-originating. Now, when taking it down to specific countries/routes that will vary, as US-Italy is highly seasonal with US-point of sale leisure dominating during summer. I'm not so sure there are a lot of Europeans ready to flock to the US at this point.

3) With where we are in mid-May, any typical tourism planning time, this isn't the year for all the Clark Griswolds and Ma & Pa Kettle / Rick Steves followers to go their European vacation. It will be far from normal in terms of accommodations, dining, attractions, etc. Europe is still going to be there. I personally wouldn't shell out thousands of dollars for some weird sub-par half-open experiences this summer. Not to mention any travel related issues that could crop-up. Its definitely going to more for the adventurous set this year, or people who just don't care.
'
4) August, September, October are still very much salvageable and in-play. While it doesn't align with those tied to K-12 or college schedules, there is still plenty of time for those not tied to school schedules for things to open up to some sense of normality and get people going for late-summer and fall. Personally, I love going to Europe in September, one of the best months to go in my opinion.

To this point, I too cannot envision booking a trip to EU now so last minute for a completely metered and subpar experience on the other end. Masks, capacity limits etc. However once winter arrives, maybe we’ll see European sun seekers head to Florida/Caribbean/Mexico, and that might generate some traffic for the US 3. Only time will tell I guess.

ABEguy wrote:

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

Regarding TATL travel, there are a few more aspects than what has already been discussed.

1) There is some not-insignificant amount of "pent-up" VFR-purpose related travel that is posed to unlock as soon as its feasible in enter respective countries. I personally know many people that will get on a plane to the UK and Germany as soon as its feasible without onerous quarantines or testing regimes. Once the countries can figure out how to make it work, there are people that have not seen parents/siblings/children/grandchildren in almost 2 years now.

2) Contrary to popular belief, as a whole, during summer months there is actually more Europe-originating traffic than US-originating. Now, when taking it down to specific countries/routes that will vary, as US-Italy is highly seasonal with US-point of sale leisure dominating during summer. I'm not so sure there are a lot of Europeans ready to flock to the US at this point.

3) With where we are in mid-May, any typical tourism planning time, this isn't the year for all the Clark Griswolds and Ma & Pa Kettle / Rick Steves followers to go their European vacation. It will be far from normal in terms of accommodations, dining, attractions, etc. Europe is still going to be there. I personally wouldn't shell out thousands of dollars for some weird sub-par half-open experiences this summer. Not to mention any travel related issues that could crop-up. Its definitely going to more for the adventurous set this year, or people who just don't care.
'
4) August, September, October are still very much salvageable and in-play. While it doesn't align with those tied to K-12 or college schedules, there is still plenty of time for those not tied to school schedules for things to open up to some sense of normality and get people going for late-summer and fall. Personally, I love going to Europe in September, one of the best months to go in my opinion.

To this point, I too cannot envision booking a trip to EU now so last minute for a completely metered and subpar experience on the other end. Masks, capacity limits etc. However once winter arrives, maybe we’ll see European sun seekers head to Florida/Caribbean/Mexico, and that might generate some traffic for the US 3. Only time will tell I guess.

How bout the Canadians heading to USA for the winter? What’s going on with Canada. Both countries are heavily vaccinated now.

32andBelow wrote:

If the airlines put out some really cheap round trips to Europe they will sell them. But capacity overall will be much lower

Not sure there is going to be a huge impetus to do that in the near-term as flying a bunch of loss-leading, money burning long-haul flights to Europe is good way to burn through a mountain of cash.
I see a bit more capacity displine here and yield management since there isn't as much ULCC/LCC competition and pure discressionary travel in the near-term.

With how hot domestic is and yield potential this summer, running A330s, 787s, and 763s on domestic trunk routes and getting 4 segments a day will probably generate better revenue than flying low load factor fire sale fares to Europe....at least until September.

32andBelow wrote:

How bout the Canadians heading to USA for the winter? What’s going on with Canada. Both countries are heavily vaccinated now.

Border is still closed, at least through the end of June. Canada's vaccine rollout has been incredibly slow, they are at a fraction of the US and (at least in Ontario, still in lockdown mode).
Canadians will go to sun markets next winter, when the border is open they always do, as they don't have any sun markets in that country.

I know Canadians who have cars stuck on the wrong side of the border still from last March.

I’m speaking of Trans-Atlantic traffic specifically. I’m sure Canadians are going to look for warm climate vacations as soon as they can, but considering that the population of Canada is smaller than California, its not quite as crucial for the US carriers I’d guess.

I haven't paid a ton of attention, but I'd be really interested to see how much capacity is scheduled into Hawaii this summer.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

Regarding TATL travel, there are a few more aspects than what has already been discussed.

1) There is some not-insignificant amount of "pent-up" VFR-purpose related travel that is posed to unlock as soon as its feasible in enter respective countries. I personally know many people that will get on a plane to the UK and Germany as soon as its feasible without onerous quarantines or testing regimes. Once the countries can figure out how to make it work, there are people that have not seen parents/siblings/children/grandchildren in almost 2 years now.

VFRs, at least those with a non-U.S. passport have been allowed to travel and have been traveling. Like my wife and everyone else I know with an European passport who went to Europe last Summer. The UK was also allowing US passports in, last Summer for a period of time. A friend of mine with an Austrian passport just went to Austria on vacation last month. I'm not really sure how much pent-up demand there is but for me personally visiting family in Europe this Summer is out of the question. And I always knew all along that I was allowed in. I just don't want to deal with all the Covid restriction hassle. I can do that in the Fall or at Xmas when we have more clear traveling rules and hopefully less restrictions.

The biggest problem right now is the complete lack of information regarding the rules and when they will change. I agree that most Americans have already made their Summer vacation plans by now. I'm sure there are a small percentage that is waiting and hoping that the travel restrictions in Europe are lifted. One of the biggest ones being the testing requirement that is still in place where most countries charge upwards of 100 Euros for a PCR test. That on top of an expensive last minute fare, on top of still potential Covid restrictions at the destination, on top of kids not yet fully vaccinated, will keep a lot of people from flying TATL this Summer.

Typically European summer vacations end much later (mid September), than U.S. school vacations so there might be some hope for Europe originating leisure traffic. But I'd say the ship has sailed for US originating TATL travel.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

32andBelow wrote:

How bout the Canadians heading to USA for the winter? What’s going on with Canada. Both countries are heavily vaccinated now.

Border is still closed, at least through the end of June. Canada's vaccine rollout has been incredibly slow, they are at a fraction of the US and (at least in Ontario, still in lockdown mode).
Canadians will go to sun markets next winter, when the border is open they always do, as they don't have any sun markets in that country.

I know Canadians who have cars stuck on the wrong side of the border still from last March.

Canada is about to pass the US would first dose percentage. I wouldn’t call that painfully slow. It’s time to re open the border at least to the vaccinated.

32andBelow wrote:

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

32andBelow wrote:

How bout the Canadians heading to USA for the winter? What’s going on with Canada. Both countries are heavily vaccinated now.

Border is still closed, at least through the end of June. Canada's vaccine rollout has been incredibly slow, they are at a fraction of the US and (at least in Ontario, still in lockdown mode).
Canadians will go to sun markets next winter, when the border is open they always do, as they don't have any sun markets in that country.

I know Canadians who have cars stuck on the wrong side of the border still from last March.

Canada is about to pass the US would first dose percentage. I wouldn’t call that painfully slow. It’s time to re open the border at least to the vaccinated.

Also, and this is totally anecdotal, but I think the majority of the Canadian flying public tends to fly Canadian. Going back to pre-COVID times and airports such a YUL and YYZ, seems like the US 3 used mostly rjs with a once daily mainline to a hub or two. Canadian tourism surely has an impact on the US tourism sector, but not sure the airlines are really that greatly affected.

Mass rush of Americans to Cancun leaving destination at 'imminent risk' of lockdown

In announcement, the governor of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo warned that the state had seen five straight weeks of increased COVID-19 rates following last month’s spring holidays. The dramatically rising case numbers led him to warn that Mexico’s number one tourist destination is at risk of “imminent” lockdown, according to the Associated Press.

https://www.sfgate.com/travel/article/C ... 189165.php

mercure1 wrote:

Mass rush of Americans to Cancun leaving destination at 'imminent risk' of lockdown

In announcement, the governor of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo warned that the state had seen five straight weeks of increased COVID-19 rates following last month’s spring holidays. The dramatically rising case numbers led him to warn that Mexico’s number one tourist destination is at risk of “imminent” lockdown, according to the Associated Press.

https://www.sfgate.com/travel/article/C ... 189165.php

Doubtful. Mexico has proudly been “open” during this.

mercure1 wrote:

Mass rush of Americans to Cancun leaving destination at 'imminent risk' of lockdown

In announcement, the governor of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo warned that the state had seen five straight weeks of increased COVID-19 rates following last month’s spring holidays. The dramatically rising case numbers led him to warn that Mexico’s number one tourist destination is at risk of “imminent” lockdown, according to the Associated Press.

https://www.sfgate.com/travel/article/C ... 189165.php

Not going to happen.

Scarebus34 wrote:

mercure1 wrote:

Mass rush of Americans to Cancun leaving destination at 'imminent risk' of lockdown

In announcement, the governor of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo warned that the state had seen five straight weeks of increased COVID-19 rates following last month’s spring holidays. The dramatically rising case numbers led him to warn that Mexico’s number one tourist destination is at risk of “imminent” lockdown, according to the Associated Press.

https://www.sfgate.com/travel/article/C ... 189165.php

Not going to happen.

A lockdown would bring economic disaster to that region. They depend solely on tourism. I seriously doubt it will happen.

Yesterday 1,863,697! That number was down only 10% from 2019. 2 million definitely going to happen next week.

Bank of America reporting:
-Domestic leisure tickets sold were 4.4% higher than the 2019 level
-Corporate tickets continued its slow climb and are now down -66.6% vs. 2019 vs. -69.8% last week (1/3rd of 2019)
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3699517-a ... -data-read

Kayak domestic flight searches exceeded 2019 for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic:


https://www.kayak.com/flight-trends

Anyone have anything on TATL bookings? I gotta imagine they should make it to around 25-30% soon.

Nice jump from LA bookings

International growth continues




https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/repor ... page/RhnnB
https://forwardkeys.com/global-covid-19 ... onitoring/
https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

Nicknuzzii wrote:

Anyone have anything on TATL bookings? I gotta imagine they should make it to around 25-30% soon.

Should be at 25-30% by now, this was from last month:


https://forwardkeys.com/africa-and-the- ... el-trends/

UpNAWAy wrote:

Yesterday 1,863,697! That number was down only 10% from 2019. 2 million definitely going to happen next week.

And with traffic rebounding , DFW still has their north and south remote pax parking lots closed.
Makes me wonder how much longer until those are reopened?

From today's Wolfe Research industry conference session with Delta president Glen Hauenstein:

- traffic coming back at rapid pace, better than expected; coastal business cities like BOS and NYC are now coming back nicely as well; on the way to mid-80s load factor in June
- the further out the booking curve, the better the recovery
- revenues for Q2 will be on the upper end of guidance
- domestic leisure -100% restored by June, forward bookings above 2019 levels, good yield recovery as well
- seeing surprising strength of premium product sales despite the leisure profile of most travellers today; premium cabin sales (Comfort plus, First, Delta One) recovery outpacing domestic Main Cabin sales by about 10 points
- international long-haul also starting to show some good progress, with most of Southern Europe now open
- believes some peak Europe has been pushed to September/October (i.e., pent-up demand for Europe will drive more demand for late summer/early fall than traditional Europe booking patterns)

LFs are roaring back, Domestic travel at 75% of 2019




https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#


https://jettip.net/blog/25-may-us-canad ... fic-report

Midwestindy wrote:

LFs are roaring back, Domestic travel at 75% of 2019




https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#


https://jettip.net/blog/25-may-us-canad ... fic-report

This is for travel agencies only & not direct airline bookings, travel agencies are more reliant on corporate volumes, but just goes to show the progress that has been made:

*Worth noting that domestic fares are doing much better, but overall average fares are obviously going to decrease without expensive long-haul tickets being sold.

https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

Date - 2021. - 2020 - 2019
5/28/2021 - 1,959,593 - 327,133 - 2,570,613
5/27/2021 - 1,854,534 - 321,776 - 2,485,770

Got very close yesterday to 2 million. Next chance will be Monday, but with Sunday taking some of the traffic, I don't think we get there. As I said before, the international traffic or lack thereof, is the only thing holding the numbers down at this point.

piedmontf284000 wrote:

Date - 2021. - 2020 - 2019
5/28/2021 - 1,959,593 - 327,133 - 2,570,613
5/27/2021 - 1,854,534 - 321,776 - 2,485,770

Got very close yesterday to 2 million. Next chance will be Monday, but with Sunday taking some of the traffic, I don't think we get there. As I said before, the international traffic or lack thereof, is the only thing holding the numbers down at this point.

I think we will hit it Monday still but I’m a bit more unsure.

piedmontf284000 wrote:

Date - 2021. - 2020 - 2019
5/28/2021 - 1,959,593 - 327,133 - 2,570,613
5/27/2021 - 1,854,534 - 321,776 - 2,485,770

Got very close yesterday to 2 million. Next chance will be Monday, but with Sunday taking some of the traffic, I don't think we get there. As I said before, the international traffic or lack thereof, is the only thing holding the numbers down at this point.

I’m not sure that international is the “only” thing holding it back. Domestic business, wile trending in the right direction, is still way down. I’d say both are it holding back right now.

IdlewildJFK wrote:

piedmontf284000 wrote:

Date - 2021. - 2020 - 2019
5/28/2021 - 1,959,593 - 327,133 - 2,570,613
5/27/2021 - 1,854,534 - 321,776 - 2,485,770

Got very close yesterday to 2 million. Next chance will be Monday, but with Sunday taking some of the traffic, I don't think we get there. As I said before, the international traffic or lack thereof, is the only thing holding the numbers down at this point.

I’m not sure that international is the “only” thing holding it back. Domestic business, wile trending in the right direction, is still way down. I’d say both are it holding back right now.

I don’t think there is much business on a holiday weekend normally

32andBelow wrote:

piedmontf284000 wrote:

Date - 2021. - 2020 - 2019
5/28/2021 - 1,959,593 - 327,133 - 2,570,613
5/27/2021 - 1,854,534 - 321,776 - 2,485,770

Got very close yesterday to 2 million. Next chance will be Monday, but with Sunday taking some of the traffic, I don't think we get there. As I said before, the international traffic or lack thereof, is the only thing holding the numbers down at this point.

I think we will hit it Monday still but I’m a bit more unsure.

Doubtful we see 2M on Monday, it should be interesting to see what the numbers do towards the end of next week, when airlines switch to their larger June schedules. Airline LFs are at 90%+ this weekend.

We will hit 2M sometime in June no doubt.

Midwestindy wrote:

32andBelow wrote:

piedmontf284000 wrote:

Date - 2021. - 2020 - 2019
5/28/2021 - 1,959,593 - 327,133 - 2,570,613
5/27/2021 - 1,854,534 - 321,776 - 2,485,770

Got very close yesterday to 2 million. Next chance will be Monday, but with Sunday taking some of the traffic, I don't think we get there. As I said before, the international traffic or lack thereof, is the only thing holding the numbers down at this point.

I think we will hit it Monday still but I’m a bit more unsure.

Doubtful we see 2M on Monday, it should be interesting to see what the numbers do towards the end of next week, when airlines switch to their larger June schedules. Airline LFs are at 90%+ this weekend.

We will hit 2M sometime in June no doubt.

Some capacity already got turned on for this weekend. Delta launched a bunch of seasonal flights to ANC for example

Memorial Day weekend travel is dispersed over several days. Peak outbound days are Thursday and Friday. Sunday will be lighter than a typical Sunday and return travel is spread across Monday Tuesday and really much of the following week.

We will probably break 2M either Sunday June 6 or Friday June 11

32andBelow wrote:

IdlewildJFK wrote:

piedmontf284000 wrote:

Date - 2021. - 2020 - 2019
5/28/2021 - 1,959,593 - 327,133 - 2,570,613
5/27/2021 - 1,854,534 - 321,776 - 2,485,770

Got very close yesterday to 2 million. Next chance will be Monday, but with Sunday taking some of the traffic, I don't think we get there. As I said before, the international traffic or lack thereof, is the only thing holding the numbers down at this point.

I’m not sure that international is the “only” thing holding it back. Domestic business, wile trending in the right direction, is still way down. I’d say both are it holding back right now.

I don’t think there is much business on a holiday weekend normally

He was referring to the 27th/28th numbers in that post, a Thursday and Friday and was responding to that. I agree with you - business is not what will hold back this weekends numbers - but it certainly played a role in the weekday numbers being discussed.

With only 1.65 Sunday I think we are in store for 2-2.1 today

Nice recovery building from corporate to close out May, hence the reason I was calling the "only 50% of corporate travel will return" predictions outlandish:


https://www2.arccorp.com/about-us/newsr ... y-30-2021/

32andBelow wrote:

With only 1.65 Sunday I think we are in store for 2-2.1 today

1,900,170 yesterday for Memorial Day. Next chance to hit 2 million, in my opinion, will be Father's Day weekend.

Midwestindy wrote:

Nice recovery building from corporate to close out May, hence the reason I was calling the "only 50% of corporate travel will return" predictions outlandish:


https://www2.arccorp.com/about-us/newsr ... y-30-2021/

By October Corporate travel will be at 70 percent or greater. Many companies typically cut back in the summer anyway (vacations, less conventions/conferences, etc). By fall, many companies will have relaxed their corporate policies on travelling and it is going to drive airfares thru the roof.

I think we will see 2m sooner than people think. Airlines are adding a lot of seats in June compared to May.

piedmontf284000 wrote:

32andBelow wrote:

With only 1.65 Sunday I think we are in store for 2-2.1 today

1,900,170 yesterday for Memorial Day. Next chance to hit 2 million, in my opinion, will be Father's Day weekend.

Midwestindy wrote:

Nice recovery building from corporate to close out May, hence the reason I was calling the "only 50% of corporate travel will return" predictions outlandish:


https://www2.arccorp.com/about-us/newsr ... y-30-2021/

By October Corporate travel will be at 70 percent or greater. Many companies typically cut back in the summer anyway (vacations, less conventions/conferences, etc). By fall, many companies will have relaxed their corporate policies on travelling and it is going to drive airfares thru the roof.

Keep in mind that a lot of high $ corporate travel is stuff to Europe and Asia. Those things will take a lot longer to come back. Loosening domestic travel policies isn't going to help with that. Also, a lot of firms in the coastal states are simply not back to their office yet. Google is apparently telling its employees they will need to be back in office by September 1st. That will be a big test. If enough employees revolt, the WFH options will get pushed further along. That will have significant implications on corporate travel.

Long term, the issue is not whether or not corporate travel will return to 2019 level, but whether or not it will get back to the same % of overall revenue as in 2019. The former should happen in a few years. After all, domestic leisure is already back to 2019 level. The second part seems quite hard.

MaxTrimm wrote:

I think we will see 2m sooner than people think. Airlines are adding a lot of seats in June compared to May.

Yep, for example with WN they are going from 82% of 2019 ASMs in May, to 94% of 2019 ASMs in June, while expecting the same LF of 85%.

Similar story for DL, except they expect higher LFs than May on more capacity.

Should be this week or next for 2M, since some carriers don't switch over until the larger June schedule until Sunday. LFs would really need to fall off for the TSA numbers to not hit 2M, and there is no catalyst for a fall off to occur.

piedmontf284000 wrote:

32andBelow wrote:

With only 1.65 Sunday I think we are in store for 2-2.1 today

1,900,170 yesterday for Memorial Day. Next chance to hit 2 million, in my opinion, will be Father's Day weekend.

Midwestindy wrote:

Nice recovery building from corporate to close out May, hence the reason I was calling the "only 50% of corporate travel will return" predictions outlandish:


https://www2.arccorp.com/about-us/newsr ... y-30-2021/

By October Corporate travel will be at 70 percent or greater. Many companies typically cut back in the summer anyway (vacations, less conventions/conferences, etc). By fall, many companies will have relaxed their corporate policies on travelling and it is going to drive airfares thru the roof.

1.9 seemed low compared to Thursday and Friday. Maybe some spilled into today

tphuang wrote:

piedmontf284000 wrote:

32andBelow wrote:

With only 1.65 Sunday I think we are in store for 2-2.1 today

1,900,170 yesterday for Memorial Day. Next chance to hit 2 million, in my opinion, will be Father's Day weekend.

Midwestindy wrote:

Nice recovery building from corporate to close out May, hence the reason I was calling the "only 50% of corporate travel will return" predictions outlandish:


https://www2.arccorp.com/about-us/newsr ... y-30-2021/

By October Corporate travel will be at 70 percent or greater. Many companies typically cut back in the summer anyway (vacations, less conventions/conferences, etc). By fall, many companies will have relaxed their corporate policies on travelling and it is going to drive airfares thru the roof.

Keep in mind that a lot of high $ corporate travel is stuff to Europe and Asia. Those things will take a lot longer to come back. Loosening domestic travel policies isn't going to help with that. Also, a lot of firms in the coastal states are simply not back to their office yet. Google is apparently telling its employees they will need to be back in office by September 1st. That will be a big test. If enough employees revolt, the WFH options will get pushed further along. That will have significant implications on corporate travel.

Long term, the issue is not whether or not corporate travel will return to 2019 level, but whether or not it will get back to the same % of overall revenue as in 2019. The former should happen in a few years. After all, domestic leisure is already back to 2019 level. The second part seems quite hard.

Here in NWA, JB Hunt corporate went maskless yesterday. Walmart starts bringing folks back to HQ in July.

The sociology work changes from almost 18 months of shutdown are going to be substantial. Restaurant workers are finding better jobs. Employers are finding it more difficult than expected to get people to quit working from home. Road warriors I know are saying 'no' to regular flying. At this time no one knows how all this will play out. But there will be substantial changes. That's life.

Ranchers in our family complained early in the 20th century when tractor came along to replace horses that farming would never be the same. It wasn't.

Restaurant workers aren't simply finding better jobs. The geniuses in power have simply made it more lucrative for people not to work right now. This is what happens when unemployment benefits become weaponized as vote buying.

msy2351 wrote:

Restaurant workers aren't simply finding better jobs. The geniuses in power have simply made it more lucrative for people not to work right now. This is what happens when unemployment benefits become weaponized as vote buying.

That's a very minor part of this. Multiple sources, including the Best Buy CEO, are saying the primary reasons for people not returning to service industry jobs are children still remote learning at home, low pay/benefits and poor work conditions, and health concerns.

msy2351 wrote:

Restaurant workers aren't simply finding better jobs. The geniuses in power have simply made it more lucrative for people not to work right now. This is what happens when unemployment benefits become weaponized as vote buying.

What happened to no politics in these threads?

In order for companies to bring workers back and travel to start back up, employees need to be paid more then $10 an hour.

Nicknuzzii wrote:

In order for companies to bring workers back and travel to start back up, employees need to be paid more then $10 an hour.

Not sure I follow your argument here, corporate travel return is not being determined by worker pay, except in rare examples. The jobs you are alluding to do not drive corporate travel in a meaningful way.

Midwestindy wrote:

Nicknuzzii wrote:

In order for companies to bring workers back and travel to start back up, employees need to be paid more then $10 an hour.

Not sure I follow your argument here, corporate travel return is not being determined by worker pay, except in rare examples. The jobs you are alluding to do not drive corporate travel in a meaningful way.

I think what was mentioned earlier from other posters was that we have to get it started somewhere and it starts from the bottom.

Awesome....bring on the high fares


If you pull out the magnifying glass you can see a small pump in TATL.

https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#