US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

DanielsBrawley · Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:17 am

More great info Indy, well done mate! Question, I've been looking at the domestic travel numbers the TSA puts out. It appears we've leveled off around +/-20% or so lower than 2019 traffic. On the surface this might indicate the adjusted "new average" of daily domestic but what I wonder is what % of the traffic in 2019 could be attributed to international connections? With international being so low that number might be interesting. My wild guess is the missing 20% is international which would mean domestic travel has bounced back to 100%+ of pre pandemic levels. Any idea on this?

32andBelow · Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:33 am

DanielsBrawley wrote:
More great info Indy, well done mate! Question, I've been looking at the domestic travel numbers the TSA puts out. It appears we've leveled off around +/-20% or so lower than 2019 traffic. On the surface this might indicate the adjusted "new average" of daily domestic but what I wonder is what % of the traffic in 2019 could be attributed to international connections? With international being so low that number might be interesting. My wild guess is the missing 20% is international which would mean domestic travel has bounced back to 100%+ of pre pandemic levels. Any idea on this?

I don’t think the biggest domestic cities like NYC BOS and LAX have fully recovered yet.

MaxTrimm · Fri Jul 23, 2021 7:48 am

[twoid][/twoid]

DanielsBrawley wrote:
More great info Indy, well done mate! Question, I've been looking at the domestic travel numbers the TSA puts out. It appears we've leveled off around +/-20% or so lower than 2019 traffic. On the surface this might indicate the adjusted "new average" of daily domestic but what I wonder is what % of the traffic in 2019 could be attributed to international connections? With international being so low that number might be interesting. My wild guess is the missing 20% is international which would mean domestic travel has bounced back to 100%+ of pre pandemic levels. Any idea on this?

Domestic travel nationwide is very likely at, near, or above 100% of 2019 right now. I think it might even be a little above. Where you lose traffic in LAX, JFK, etc... you see an unbelievable amount of leisure routes operating that didn’t in 2019. JAC is packed, BZN is jammed, and places like RSW PNS VPS are all seeing huge increases from 2019. Where you lose frequency and passengers on business markets eg. LAX-SFO, you get those losses back by all that extra service to leisure spots.

Western727 · Fri Jul 23, 2021 12:08 pm

MaxTrimm wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
DanielsBrawley wrote:
More great info Indy, well done mate! Question, I've been looking at the domestic travel numbers the TSA puts out. It appears we've leveled off around +/-20% or so lower than 2019 traffic. On the surface this might indicate the adjusted "new average" of daily domestic but what I wonder is what % of the traffic in 2019 could be attributed to international connections? With international being so low that number might be interesting. My wild guess is the missing 20% is international which would mean domestic travel has bounced back to 100%+ of pre pandemic levels. Any idea on this?

Domestic travel nationwide is very likely at, near, or above 100% of 2019 right now. I think it might even be a little above. Where you lose traffic in LAX, JFK, etc... you see an unbelievable amount of leisure routes operating that didn’t in 2019. JAC is packed, BZN is jammed, and places like RSW PNS VPS are all seeing huge increases from 2019. Where you lose frequency and passengers on business markets eg. LAX-SFO, you get those losses back by all that extra service to leisure spots.

Indeed. I'm on a vacation right now in my hometown of SEA. It's an annual vacation my wife and I anticipated greatly and are enjoying more than we ever did. The COVID hibernation lasted too long for our collective taste, so it figures that these domestic leisure spots are seeing huge increases over 2019.

DanielsBrawley · Fri Jul 23, 2021 4:29 pm

So we're seeing an increase in domestic due to leisure right? Probably because people who were locked in for the last year are eager to get out and take a vacation? If that's the case once international opens up travel will easily exceed 2019 levels. I wonder how it impacts the bottom line of the major carriers. This type of travel results in the lowest net for the airlines, no? It can't be a money maker if you're selling leisure travel. In Hong Kong, we were told, CX made the vast majority of its profit on business travel. Has to be similar in domestic US. I still wonder were the missing 20% is. International, business or some combination of the two would seem to make up for a significant source of profit for the airlines.

32andBelow · Fri Jul 23, 2021 4:33 pm

DanielsBrawley wrote:
So we're seeing an increase in domestic due to leisure right? Probably because people who were locked in for the last year are eager to get out and take a vacation? If that's the case once international opens up travel will easily exceed 2019 levels. I wonder how it impacts the bottom line of the major carriers. This type of travel results in the lowest net for the airlines, no? It can't be a money maker if you're selling leisure travel. In Hong Kong, we were told, CX made the vast majority of its profit on business travel. Has to be similar in domestic US. I still wonder were the missing 20% is. International, business or some combination of the two would seem to make up for a significant source of profit for the airlines.

They’ve been bailed out 3 times so they are starting to post profits right now n

MaxTrimm · Fri Jul 23, 2021 7:51 pm

DanielsBrawley wrote:
So we're seeing an increase in domestic due to leisure right? Probably because people who were locked in for the last year are eager to get out and take a vacation? If that's the case once international opens up travel will easily exceed 2019 levels. I wonder how it impacts the bottom line of the major carriers. This type of travel results in the lowest net for the airlines, no? It can't be a money maker if you're selling leisure travel. In Hong Kong, we were told, CX made the vast majority of its profit on business travel. Has to be similar in domestic US. I still wonder were the missing 20% is. International, business or some combination of the two would seem to make up for a significant source of profit for the airlines.

I do think that if, and it’s a big if, international travel rebounds to 2019 levels in the next 5 years it could well exceed 2019. But I also think by the time that happens, the domestic leisure boom calms down a bit and we’ll probably just be back at 2019 numbers systemwide. You definitely are right about the business traveling to places like Hong Kong, Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore, etc, and those seem a ways off any type of normal. As long as we keep seeing variants, that’s just the way it will be. Airlines will have to adjust.

Midwestindy · Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:23 pm

32andBelow wrote:
DanielsBrawley wrote:
More great info Indy, well done mate! Question, I've been looking at the domestic travel numbers the TSA puts out. It appears we've leveled off around +/-20% or so lower than 2019 traffic. On the surface this might indicate the adjusted "new average" of daily domestic but what I wonder is what % of the traffic in 2019 could be attributed to international connections? With international being so low that number might be interesting. My wild guess is the missing 20% is international which would mean domestic travel has bounced back to 100%+ of pre pandemic levels. Any idea on this?

I don’t think the biggest domestic cities like NYC BOS and LAX have fully recovered yet.

Correct:

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/air ... -the-rise/

DanielsBrawley wrote:
So we're seeing an increase in domestic due to leisure right? Probably because people who were locked in for the last year are eager to get out and take a vacation? If that's the case once international opens up travel will easily exceed 2019 levels. I wonder how it impacts the bottom line of the major carriers. This type of travel results in the lowest net for the airlines, no? It can't be a money maker if you're selling leisure travel. In Hong Kong, we were told, CX made the vast majority of its profit on business travel. Has to be similar in domestic US. I still wonder were the missing 20% is. International, business or some combination of the two would seem to make up for a significant source of profit for the airlines.

Domestic business is approaching 50% of 2019, so it's not just domestic leisure travel anymore, at least in the US.

Especially if you fly into places like Texas you can really see the return of business travel happening

DoctorVenkman · Sat Jul 24, 2021 2:05 pm

Q4 is when we will see business travel come back in a big way. The corporate world seems to be consolidating around September as the "back to normal" date. At least, this applies to my sphere of the corporate world, which is multinationals primarily located on the coasts.

For example, right now at my company you need an executive sponsor willing to deem the trip "business critical" to book any travel. You then have to take that to HR and go through a bunch of hoops to book the flights. But starting in September we will be going back to normal where individuals have control over their own T&E budgets and can book travel as needed. Many of my peers in other companies are saying the same thing - September (specifically Labor Day) is when the restrictions end.

Nicknuzzii · Sat Jul 24, 2021 2:40 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
DanielsBrawley wrote:
More great info Indy, well done mate! Question, I've been looking at the domestic travel numbers the TSA puts out. It appears we've leveled off around +/-20% or so lower than 2019 traffic. On the surface this might indicate the adjusted "new average" of daily domestic but what I wonder is what % of the traffic in 2019 could be attributed to international connections? With international being so low that number might be interesting. My wild guess is the missing 20% is international which would mean domestic travel has bounced back to 100%+ of pre pandemic levels. Any idea on this?

I don’t think the biggest domestic cities like NYC BOS and LAX have fully recovered yet.

Correct:

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/air ... -the-rise/

DanielsBrawley wrote:
So we're seeing an increase in domestic due to leisure right? Probably because people who were locked in for the last year are eager to get out and take a vacation? If that's the case once international opens up travel will easily exceed 2019 levels. I wonder how it impacts the bottom line of the major carriers. This type of travel results in the lowest net for the airlines, no? It can't be a money maker if you're selling leisure travel. In Hong Kong, we were told, CX made the vast majority of its profit on business travel. Has to be similar in domestic US. I still wonder were the missing 20% is. International, business or some combination of the two would seem to make up for a significant source of profit for the airlines.

Domestic business is approaching 50% of 2019, so it's not just domestic leisure travel anymore, at least in the US.

Especially if you fly into places like Texas you can really see the return of business travel happening

What is NJ?

DanielsBrawley · Wed Jul 28, 2021 8:13 pm

Checking in Indy. Saw the ghost buster post above about biz travel returning in a big way last quarter 2021. Reviewing some of the previous data you furnished some business travel is identified and possibly predictable? Anything from your sources showing how the last quarter this year is shaping up on the biz travel end? Seems industry stability is highly dependent on those elusive yet profitable suits. Cheers...

PITingres · Wed Jul 28, 2021 10:32 pm

DoctorVenkman wrote:
Q4 is when we will see business travel come back in a big way. The corporate world seems to be consolidating around September as the "back to normal" date. At least, this applies to my sphere of the corporate world, which is multinationals primarily located on the coasts.

I'm inclined to agree, mostly. I expect an initial bounce for visiting overseas offices, catching up and re-establishing personal contacts. After that, though, I wouldn't be surprised if business travel stabilized at a somewhat lower level. I know my company is moving to a model of fewer (and possibly longer) international trips. There's a real emphasis on sharpening video call skills; travel is going to be focused for maximum benefit per trip.

PSU.DTW.SCE · Wed Jul 28, 2021 10:48 pm

Up until July we had to get pre-approval for client/customer related travel (which I got approval last September). Now any client or sales domestic travel is unrestricted doesnt't require any pre-approval.
Anything internal, non-client/customer, training, conference, recruiting needs VP/Director level pre-approval until September.

International requires executive level / COO level approval and basically isn't happening until otherwise told.

MaxTrimm · Thu Jul 29, 2021 1:12 am

I know the CEO’s say otherwise, but there is NO WAY the new restrictions coming about and Delta fears aren’t hurting forward bookings. Fall was already supposed to be suspect, but I imagine at least a few vacations have been canned.

travelin man · Thu Jul 29, 2021 1:16 am

travelin man wrote:
Flightaware has good data on the change in aircraft movements 2019 vs. 2020 vs. 2021. I've consolidated some of the top airports to see the change between 2019 and 2021 from the latest day's worth of data (June 13th). I excluded cargo heavy airports such as MEM, SDF, and ANC, because those would more likely reflect cargo demand, not passenger demand. Not too many surprises, with the top "recovered" airports in the Sun and Mountain destinations, and the least recovered airports basically SFO and the Northeast.

Again, this is the change in aircraft movements (arrivals + departures), but it looks like it follows a lot of the passenger data that has come out.

AIRPORT % Change in Aircraft Movements (2021 vs 2019)
TUS 124%
HNL 119%
SNA 118%
RNO 117%
SJU 112%
BOI 107%
SLC 102%
TPA 101%

AUS 100%
PHX 99%
ABQ 99%
BNA 98%
OKC 98%
MIA 96%
DEN 95%
CLT 94%
MCO 94%
LAS 93%
SAT 93%
DFW 92%
FLL 92%

IND 88%
MDW 86%
IAH 86%
MKE 86%
SMF 85%
SEA 84%
CVG 83%

MSY 79%
JAX 79%
ATL 78%
SAN 77%
MSP 76%
RDU 75%
ORD 75%
MCI 75%
STL 75%
LAX 75%
PIT 75%
CMH 74%
OAK 74%
DTW 73%
PHL 73%
BWI 73%
CLE 72%
BUF 70%

PDX 69%
IAD 68%
SJC 67%
JFK 65%

BOS 59%
DCA 59%
EWR 59%
SFO 53%

Updated Flightaware data as of July 25th (now including more airports):
AIRPORT % Change in Aircraft Movements (2021 vs 2019)
RSW 143%
LGB 133%
COS 130%
LIH 126%
OGG 119%
HNL 119%
KOA 115%
BOI 112%
RNO 112%
SNA 110%
SJU 109%
SAV 109%
PBI 107%
AUS 106%
GEG 106%
FAT 105%
OKC 105%
SLC 104%
PHX 104%
IND 102%
CHS 102%
ELP 102%
GRR 101%
MIA 100%

BNA 98%
TUS 98%
DAL 97%
ABQ 97%
TPA 97%
CLT 97%
OMA 96%
DSM 96%
HOU 96%
TUL 95%
LAS 95%
BHM 95%
DEN 94%
SAT 93%
ONT 93%
FLL 93%
MCO 92%
PWM 92%
DFW 92%
IAH 92%
MKE 91%
GSP 91%

MDW 87%
SMF 85%
BDL 85%
BUR 85%
IAD 84%
SEA 84%
ALB 83%
ORD 82%
CVG 82%
MSY 81%
JAX 80%
RDU 80%

BUF 79%
CLE 78%
LAX 77%
CMH 77%
PIT 76%
ATL 76%
STL 76%
OAK 76%
MSP 75%
SAN 75%
BWI 75%
MCI 74%
PVD 74%
PHL 73%
DTW 73%

PDX 67%
SJC 67%
BOS 67%
JFK 66%
EWR 65%
DCA 63%

SFO 57%
LGA 50%

Hawaii, Florida, Texas, Mountain West/Desert Southwest (+SNA and LGB surprisingly) still leading aircraft movement recovery. NYC/BOS/Bay Area still lagging very badly, even accounting for the continued decrease in longhaul international flights. (PDX is also surprising to me in their lack of recovery.)

MaxTrimm · Thu Jul 29, 2021 1:20 am

travelin man wrote:
travelin man wrote:
Flightaware has good data on the change in aircraft movements 2019 vs. 2020 vs. 2021. I've consolidated some of the top airports to see the change between 2019 and 2021 from the latest day's worth of data (June 13th). I excluded cargo heavy airports such as MEM, SDF, and ANC, because those would more likely reflect cargo demand, not passenger demand. Not too many surprises, with the top "recovered" airports in the Sun and Mountain destinations, and the least recovered airports basically SFO and the Northeast.

Again, this is the change in aircraft movements (arrivals + departures), but it looks like it follows a lot of the passenger data that has come out.

AIRPORT % Change in Aircraft Movements (2021 vs 2019)
TUS 124%
HNL 119%
SNA 118%
RNO 117%
SJU 112%
BOI 107%
SLC 102%
TPA 101%

AUS 100%
PHX 99%
ABQ 99%
BNA 98%
OKC 98%
MIA 96%
DEN 95%
CLT 94%
MCO 94%
LAS 93%
SAT 93%
DFW 92%
FLL 92%

IND 88%
MDW 86%
IAH 86%
MKE 86%
SMF 85%
SEA 84%
CVG 83%

MSY 79%
JAX 79%
ATL 78%
SAN 77%
MSP 76%
RDU 75%
ORD 75%
MCI 75%
STL 75%
LAX 75%
PIT 75%
CMH 74%
OAK 74%
DTW 73%
PHL 73%
BWI 73%
CLE 72%
BUF 70%

PDX 69%
IAD 68%
SJC 67%
JFK 65%

BOS 59%
DCA 59%
EWR 59%
SFO 53%

Updated Flightaware data as of July 25th (now including more airports):
AIRPORT % Change in Aircraft Movements (2021 vs 2019)
RSW 143%
LGB 133%
COS 130%
LIH 126%
OGG 119%
HNL 119%
KOA 115%
BOI 112%
RNO 112%
SNA 110%
SJU 109%
SAV 109%
PBI 107%
AUS 106%
GEG 106%
FAT 105%
OKC 105%
SLC 104%
PHX 104%
IND 102%
CHS 102%
ELP 102%
GRR 101%
MIA 100%

BNA 98%
TUS 98%
DAL 97%
ABQ 97%
TPA 97%
CLT 97%
OMA 96%
DSM 96%
HOU 96%
TUL 95%
LAS 95%
BHM 95%
DEN 94%
SAT 93%
ONT 93%
FLL 93%
MCO 92%
PWM 92%
DFW 92%
IAH 92%
MKE 91%
GSP 91%

MDW 87%
SMF 85%
BDL 85%
BUR 85%
IAD 84%
SEA 84%
ALB 83%
ORD 82%
CVG 82%
MSY 81%
JAX 80%
RDU 80%

BUF 79%
CLE 78%
LAX 77%
CMH 77%
PIT 76%
ATL 76%
STL 76%
OAK 76%
MSP 75%
SAN 75%
BWI 75%
MCI 74%
PVD 74%
PHL 73%
DTW 73%

PDX 67%
SJC 67%
BOS 67%
JFK 66%
EWR 65%
DCA 63%

SFO 57%
LGA 50%

Hawaii, Florida, Texas, Mountain West/Desert Southwest (+SNA and LGB surprisingly) still leading aircraft movement recovery. NYC/BOS/Bay Area still lagging very badly, even accounting for the continued decrease in longhaul international flights. (PDX is also surprising to me in their lack of recovery.)

PHX data is overinflated. Scottsdale Airport is closed, so a TON of bizjet traffic has been moving through PHX, which inflates the numbers. I think PHX is probably about 90%

WidebodyPTV · Thu Jul 29, 2021 2:18 am

MaxTrimm wrote:
I know the CEO’s say otherwise, but there is NO WAY the new restrictions coming about and Delta fears aren’t hurting forward bookings. Fall was already supposed to be suspect, but I imagine at least a few vacations have been canned.

Status quo, airlines are insisting that there's been no noticeable impact on bookings. The Journal speculates this is because people who fly, tend to be vaccinated vs. the population as a whole. That said, it was expected that a large number of workers would be required to report to the office after Labor Day and I'll bet that many workers will use this new wave as an excuse not to return.

I'll side with the markets -- if we have record breaking passenger numbers come fourth quarter, it will be because of record breaking discounting...

ElroyJetson · Thu Jul 29, 2021 3:24 am

The airport manager at RIC said leisure travel to Florida and elsewhere has been very strong. Business travel to BOS, LGA, PHL continues to be weak. I had a family member fly from RIC to MCO on NK in late April on an A320. He said every seat was full. Not a single empty seat.

I guess leisure travelers are tired of being cooped up.

32andBelow · Thu Jul 29, 2021 3:25 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
MaxTrimm wrote:
I know the CEO’s say otherwise, but there is NO WAY the new restrictions coming about and Delta fears aren’t hurting forward bookings. Fall was already supposed to be suspect, but I imagine at least a few vacations have been canned.

Status quo, airlines are insisting that there's been no noticeable impact on bookings. The Journal speculates this is because people who fly, tend to be vaccinated vs. the population as a whole. That said, it was expected that a large number of workers would be required to report to the office after Labor Day and I'll bet that many workers will use this new wave as an excuse not to return.

I'll side with the markets -- if we have record breaking passenger numbers come fourth quarter, it will be because of record breaking discounting...

All the masks mandates Are just coming back now. Whose gonna go to Vegas and wear a mask?

keithvh2001 · Thu Jul 29, 2021 4:34 am

32andBelow wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
MaxTrimm wrote:
]
All the masks mandates Are just coming back now. Whose gonna go to Vegas and wear a mask?

I was planning a Vegas trip with my family in late September. We almost booked the tickets - but we didn't. It is now off indefinitely. We're vaccinated and we're simply not going there if masks are mandated.

We won't be alone. I find it impossible to believe that these new mandates won't have a significant impact.

MaxTrimm · Thu Jul 29, 2021 4:43 am

I think it’s very possible we see another Winter full of Florida and Arizona. Seems inevitable at this point. Will be interesting to see if CA or Vegas get cut close-in for Fall after these new restrictions. Seems like a matter of time for places like Seattle/NY/Chicago

Vctony · Thu Jul 29, 2021 4:50 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
MaxTrimm wrote:
I know the CEO’s say otherwise, but there is NO WAY the new restrictions coming about and Delta fears aren’t hurting forward bookings. Fall was already supposed to be suspect, but I imagine at least a few vacations have been canned.

Status quo, airlines are insisting that there's been no noticeable impact on bookings. The Journal speculates this is because people who fly, tend to be vaccinated vs. the population as a whole. That said, it was expected that a large number of workers would be required to report to the office after Labor Day and I'll bet that many workers will use this new wave as an excuse not to return.

I'll side with the markets -- if we have record breaking passenger numbers come fourth quarter, it will be because of record breaking discounting...

I think a lot of employers who want workers back in the office are going to have vaccine mandates. Essentially employees either need to get the vaccine or mask + get weekly COVID testing. The overall feeling about the vaccine has changed over the last few weeks as it appears that a higher vaccination rate is the only way we'll get through this mess.

32andBelow · Thu Jul 29, 2021 4:58 am

keithvh2001 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:

I was planning a Vegas trip with my family in late September. We almost booked the tickets - but we didn't. It is now off indefinitely. We're vaccinated and we're simply not going there if masks are mandated.

We won't be alone. I find it impossible to believe that these new mandates won't have a significant impact.

I’d like to know what the end game on this is. Some think the delta wave is going to be gone in just a couple weeks. So people are going to want to know what the plan is if they are gonna book trips for the winter

Vctony · Thu Jul 29, 2021 5:01 am

32andBelow wrote:
keithvh2001 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:

I was planning a Vegas trip with my family in late September. We almost booked the tickets - but we didn't. It is now off indefinitely. We're vaccinated and we're simply not going there if masks are mandated.

We won't be alone. I find it impossible to believe that these new mandates won't have a significant impact.

I’d like to know what the end game on this is. Some think the delta wave is going to be gone in just a couple weeks. So people are going to want to know what the plan is if they are gonna book trips for the winter

I've heard late August / early September the combination of the delta wave ending + an increasing percentage of the population fully vaccinated will calm the situation down to what it was like mid - late June.

chrisair · Thu Jul 29, 2021 5:58 am

Just coming in here again to say how much of a drag flying is now. I feel for the front line employees at airlines. Hats off to all you airline employees who have to deal with these people.

Glad we’re able to do it for work without any restrictions, but man it’s a chore these days.

altairF28 · Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:35 pm

keithvh2001 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:

I was planning a Vegas trip with my family in late September. We almost booked the tickets - but we didn't. It is now off indefinitely. We're vaccinated and we're simply not going there if masks are mandated.

We won't be alone. I find it impossible to believe that these new mandates won't have a significant impact.[/quote
MaxTrimm wrote:
I think it’s very possible we see another Winter full of Florida and Arizona. Seems inevitable at this point. Will be interesting to see if CA or Vegas get cut close-in for Fall after these new restrictions. Seems like a matter of time for places like Seattle/NY/Chicago

I'm also expecting the same places to reinstitute quarantines for places like Florida, Arkansas and Missouri. Although a lot of it will probably have to do with the police. If for example the Clark County (NV) Sherriff announces that his office isn't going to enforce the mask mandate like the LA County Sherriff did and social media shows that the mask mandate is being widely ignored then it won't have as much of an affect.

Midwestindy · Wed Aug 04, 2021 6:11 pm

Corporate continues on the right track, as TATL continues to recover, especially in regards to LFs.

(July 11th corporate is an anomaly due to the day of July 4th)

https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

MaxTrimm · Wed Aug 04, 2021 7:21 pm

Saw TSA numbers were lowest yesterday since late June. Spirit meltdown? Variant concerns? School starting up?

Nicknuzzii · Wed Aug 04, 2021 7:45 pm

MaxTrimm wrote:
Saw TSA numbers were lowest yesterday since late June. Spirit meltdown? Variant concerns? School starting up?

And it was a pandemic record a day or two before.

DoctorVenkman · Wed Aug 04, 2021 7:54 pm

MaxTrimm wrote:
Saw TSA numbers were lowest yesterday since late June. Spirit meltdown? Variant concerns? School starting up?

AA is also having a meltdown. Hundreds of canceled flights yesterday. I read that between them and Spirit they canceled 800 flights yesterday. That's sure to have an impact on the numbers.

Midwestindy · Thu Aug 05, 2021 11:57 am

DoctorVenkman wrote:
MaxTrimm wrote:
Saw TSA numbers were lowest yesterday since late June. Spirit meltdown? Variant concerns? School starting up?

AA is also having a meltdown. Hundreds of canceled flights yesterday. I read that between them and Spirit they canceled 800 flights yesterday. That's sure to have an impact on the numbers.

Yep, it should also have a "good" impact for other carriers boosting LFs and driving up fares.

Either way though, we have already passed peak travel season, so I don't know why it would be expected that travel would be increasing.

https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

FLresident · Mon Aug 09, 2021 5:22 pm

travelin man wrote:
travelin man wrote:
Flightaware has good data on the change in aircraft movements 2019 vs. 2020 vs. 2021. I've consolidated some of the top airports to see the change between 2019 and 2021 from the latest day's worth of data (June 13th). I excluded cargo heavy airports such as MEM, SDF, and ANC, because those would more likely reflect cargo demand, not passenger demand. Not too many surprises, with the top "recovered" airports in the Sun and Mountain destinations, and the least recovered airports basically SFO and the Northeast.

Again, this is the change in aircraft movements (arrivals + departures), but it looks like it follows a lot of the passenger data that has come out.

AIRPORT % Change in Aircraft Movements (2021 vs 2019)
TUS 124%
HNL 119%
SNA 118%
RNO 117%
SJU 112%
BOI 107%
SLC 102%
TPA 101%

AUS 100%
PHX 99%
ABQ 99%
BNA 98%
OKC 98%
MIA 96%
DEN 95%
CLT 94%
MCO 94%
LAS 93%
SAT 93%
DFW 92%
FLL 92%

IND 88%
MDW 86%
IAH 86%
MKE 86%
SMF 85%
SEA 84%
CVG 83%

MSY 79%
JAX 79%
ATL 78%
SAN 77%
MSP 76%
RDU 75%
ORD 75%
MCI 75%
STL 75%
LAX 75%
PIT 75%
CMH 74%
OAK 74%
DTW 73%
PHL 73%
BWI 73%
CLE 72%
BUF 70%

PDX 69%
IAD 68%
SJC 67%
JFK 65%

BOS 59%
DCA 59%
EWR 59%
SFO 53%

Updated Flightaware data as of July 25th (now including more airports):
AIRPORT % Change in Aircraft Movements (2021 vs 2019)
RSW 143%
LGB 133%
COS 130%
LIH 126%
OGG 119%
HNL 119%
KOA 115%
BOI 112%
RNO 112%
SNA 110%
SJU 109%
SAV 109%
PBI 107%
AUS 106%
GEG 106%
FAT 105%
OKC 105%
SLC 104%
PHX 104%
IND 102%
CHS 102%
ELP 102%
GRR 101%
MIA 100%

BNA 98%
TUS 98%
DAL 97%
ABQ 97%
TPA 97%
CLT 97%
OMA 96%
DSM 96%
HOU 96%
TUL 95%
LAS 95%
BHM 95%
DEN 94%
SAT 93%
ONT 93%
FLL 93%
MCO 92%
PWM 92%
DFW 92%
IAH 92%
MKE 91%
GSP 91%

MDW 87%
SMF 85%
BDL 85%
BUR 85%
IAD 84%
SEA 84%
ALB 83%
ORD 82%
CVG 82%
MSY 81%
JAX 80%
RDU 80%

BUF 79%
CLE 78%
LAX 77%
CMH 77%
PIT 76%
ATL 76%
STL 76%
OAK 76%
MSP 75%
SAN 75%
BWI 75%
MCI 74%
PVD 74%
PHL 73%
DTW 73%

PDX 67%
SJC 67%
BOS 67%
JFK 66%
EWR 65%
DCA 63%

SFO 57%
LGA 50%

Hawaii, Florida, Texas, Mountain West/Desert Southwest (+SNA and LGB surprisingly) still leading aircraft movement recovery. NYC/BOS/Bay Area still lagging very badly, even accounting for the continued decrease in longhaul international flights. (PDX is also surprising to me in their lack of recovery.)

I am curious about these numbers.
SLC May: 92.1%
SLC June: 93.9%

BNA May: 83.4%
BNA June: 92.4%

TPA May: 87.7%
TPA June: 93.2%

FLL May: 85.8%
FLL June: 91.5%

AUS May: 71.7%
AUS June:

What explains the discrepancy between the movements and the reported passenger numbers for these months? Given the trend, the July numbers should be higher for each. But AUS for example had movements at 106% while the most recent passenger numbers (May) are still a bit lower than 2019.

These were all obtained from the airport websites.
https://www.tampaairport.com/facts-stat ... financials
http://www.austintexas.gov/department/a ... go-traffic
https://www.broward.org/Airport/Busines ... stics.aspx
https://flynashville.com/nashville-airp ... nd-reports
https://slcairport.com/about-the-airpor ... tatistics/

WidebodyPTV · Mon Aug 09, 2021 6:17 pm

Several media outlets are reporting that airlines and hotels are starting to see a minor negative impact on their bookings, as a result of the Delta variant. Should get interesting...

mcogator · Mon Aug 09, 2021 7:01 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
Several media outlets are reporting that airlines and hotels are starting to see a minor negative impact on their bookings, as a result of the Delta variant. Should get interesting...

It's been definitely slower for me in LA the last couple of weeks for my limo business. I had to turn so much business away before but now I'm quite open.

PSU.DTW.SCE · Mon Aug 09, 2021 7:18 pm

Family summer vacation period is essentially over with schools going back in session in the next few weeks. Even in regions where school doesn't go back until September, like in Michigan, many of the fall sports seasons start practices start this week and next.
We've essentially burned through the summer travel season and "pent-up leisure / VFR" demand.

Will transition back to a bit more of a typical fall travel pattern.
Domestic business is back from its deathbed, but will be interesting to see the trajectory for Sept, Oct, early-Nov which are typically business-travel heavy months.
Will be interesting to see how much it climbs from ~40% going into September between now and year-end or if it pretty much stays around where it is.

tphuang · Mon Aug 09, 2021 7:37 pm

https://nypost.com/2021/08/09/airline-t ... st-writes/
I'm sure this is at least somewhat related to summer vacation period being over, but delta spread probably has something to do with it too. 20% drop is not a small drop.

Medium term, I'd think this would have a large effect on international travel than domestic. With peak summer vacation period over, Southern European countries aren't going to be as desperate for US tourism $.

Midwestindy · Mon Aug 09, 2021 7:54 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Family summer vacation period is essentially over with schools going back in session in the next few weeks. Even in regions where school doesn't go back until September, like in Michigan, many of the fall sports seasons start practices start this week and next.
We've essentially burned through the summer travel season and "pent-up leisure / VFR" demand.

Will transition back to a bit more of a typical fall travel pattern.
Domestic business is back from its deathbed, but will be interesting to see the trajectory for Sept, Oct, early-Nov which are typically business-travel heavy months.
Will be interesting to see how much it climbs from ~40% going into September between now and year-end or if it pretty much stays around where it is.

Yes, if you look demographically you can see what's causing the change, it's not businesses suddenly ending travel again or singles/couples suddenly cancelling travel out of fear of COVID (at least not yet).

It's driven principally by a drop in family bookings, as summer is coming to a close.

If fear of COVID was the leading cause here than business travel would be dropping, as companies would be attempting to limit liability, but on a YOY basis it continues to increase vs. 2019. (see post #1982)

It's actually a more pronounced trend if you look at international bookings, this was happening months before the Delta strain got big in the US.

https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/repor ... page/RhnnB

WidebodyPTV · Mon Aug 09, 2021 8:17 pm

Looking at the market today, traders are clearly betting that COVID will disrupt fall travel. Several analysts believe with high certainty that we won't see the large, in office push following Labor Day that we had expected.

F9 & NK heavily slashed fares for fall travel, while DL, etc. are holding them, so it appears the legacies are still expecting a rebound in business travel.

FlyingElvii · Mon Aug 09, 2021 9:01 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
MaxTrimm wrote:
I know the CEO’s say otherwise, but there is NO WAY the new restrictions coming about and Delta fears aren’t hurting forward bookings. Fall was already supposed to be suspect, but I imagine at least a few vacations have been canned.

Status quo, airlines are insisting that there's been no noticeable impact on bookings. The Journal speculates this is because people who fly, tend to be vaccinated vs. the population as a whole. That said, it was expected that a large number of workers would be required to report to the office after Labor Day and I'll bet that many workers will use this new wave as an excuse not to return.

I'll side with the markets -- if we have record breaking passenger numbers come fourth quarter, it will be because of record breaking discounting...

Illinois just added new mask requirements, large events have started to be canceled for the fall.
New Orleans Jazz Fest was just cancelled today due to rising cases. If you search google, you will find dozens of large festivals and events have started cancelling due to recent headlines.

Airlines stocks have been taking a beating since late last week because of this.

FlyingElvii · Mon Aug 09, 2021 9:06 pm

tphuang wrote:
https://nypost.com/2021/08/09/airline-travel-slowed-in-july-as-delta-variant-spread-economist-writes/
I'm sure this is at least somewhat related to summer vacation period being over, but delta spread probably has something to do with it too. 20% drop is not a small drop.

Medium term, I'd think this would have a large effect on international travel than domestic. With peak summer vacation period over, Southern European countries aren't going to be as desperate for US tourism $.

I think that this year, you are going to see a much bigger and starker difference in economic activity between states that are allowing business, and those that aren’t, than last year. The stage is already set.
The states that do allow free commerce will be boosted by those fleeing the states that don’t, when they can, as well.

Scarebus34 · Mon Aug 09, 2021 9:09 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
MaxTrimm wrote:
I know the CEO’s say otherwise, but there is NO WAY the new restrictions coming about and Delta fears aren’t hurting forward bookings. Fall was already supposed to be suspect, but I imagine at least a few vacations have been canned.

Status quo, airlines are insisting that there's been no noticeable impact on bookings. The Journal speculates this is because people who fly, tend to be vaccinated vs. the population as a whole. That said, it was expected that a large number of workers would be required to report to the office after Labor Day and I'll bet that many workers will use this new wave as an excuse not to return.

I'll side with the markets -- if we have record breaking passenger numbers come fourth quarter, it will be because of record breaking discounting...

Illinois just added new mask requirements, large events have started to be canceled for the fall.
New Orleans Jazz Fest was just cancelled today due to rising cases. If you search google, you will find dozens of large festivals and events have started cancelling due to recent headlines.

Airlines stocks have been taking a beating since late last week because of this.

Which is a complete overreaction. Cases will plummet in the next few weeks...

FLresident · Mon Aug 09, 2021 9:20 pm

tphuang wrote:
https://nypost.com/2021/08/09/airline-travel-slowed-in-july-as-delta-variant-spread-economist-writes/
I'm sure this is at least somewhat related to summer vacation period being over, but delta spread probably has something to do with it too. 20% drop is not a small drop.

Medium term, I'd think this would have a large effect on international travel than domestic. With peak summer vacation period over, Southern European countries aren't going to be as desperate for US tourism $.

For hotel occupancy, here are some references:
Week ending July 10th: 67.2% occupancy (-9.3% from 2019 same period)
Week ending July 17th: 71.0% (-8.7%)
Week ending July 24th: 71.4% (-7.8%)
Week ending July 31th: 70.1% (-6.2%)
https://www.hospitalitynet.org/news/4105858.html

With that being said, I trust the DL chief executive has some good insight on the matter.

WidebodyPTV · Mon Aug 09, 2021 9:24 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
Airlines stocks have been taking a beating since late last week because of this.

That's incorrect. AA & UA's stock climbed last week, while most other airlines' was stagnant or down by an insignificant amount.

Scarebus34 wrote:
Which is a complete overreaction. Cases will plummet in the next few weeks...

Yeah, because we're going to wave a magic wand and everything will go away. Cases won't plummet until people get vaccinated, or we reach heard immunity. That's not going to happen in a few weeks. Don't compare the US's trajectory to UK's -- just weeks ago, the UK was well behind the US in vaccinations, but it's far surpassed us. What happened there wasn't magic.

MaxTrimm · Tue Aug 10, 2021 2:45 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
Airlines stocks have been taking a beating since late last week because of this.

That's incorrect. AA & UA's stock climbed last week, while most other airlines' was stagnant or down by an insignificant amount.

Scarebus34 wrote:
Which is a complete overreaction. Cases will plummet in the next few weeks...

Yeah, because we're going to wave a magic wand and everything will go away. Cases won't plummet until people get vaccinated, or we reach heard immunity. That's not going to happen in a few weeks. Don't compare the US's trajectory to UK's -- just weeks ago, the UK was well behind the US in vaccinations, but it's far surpassed us. What happened there wasn't magic.

Cases will happen at a high rate, vaccinated or not. Huge amounts of vaccinated are testing positive. The key here is they aren’t being hospitalized. The vaccine effort isn’t reducing cases anymore with the Delta variant around, its reducing hospitalizations. The notion that “Cases won’t plummet until people get vaccinated” is false.

I think business travel will take another big hit, but leisure will stay strong on weekends and yet again, opened states will see a huge advantage over the more restricted states.

32andBelow · Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:20 am

Places with mask mandates like Vegas are gonna take a hit.

FlyingElvii · Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:26 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
Airlines stocks have been taking a beating since late last week because of this.

That's incorrect. AA & UA's stock climbed last week, while most other airlines' was stagnant or down by an insignificant amount.

Scarebus34 wrote:
Which is a complete overreaction. Cases will plummet in the next few weeks...

Yeah, because we're going to wave a magic wand and everything will go away. Cases won't plummet until people get vaccinated, or we reach heard immunity. That's not going to happen in a few weeks. Don't compare the US's trajectory to UK's -- just weeks ago, the UK was well behind the US in vaccinations, but it's far surpassed us. What happened there wasn't magic.

Wall Street dragged down by falling airline stocks
https://www.cityam.com/wall-street-drag ... /?letter=l

Airline, Cruise Stocks Weaker As New Covid Cases Stoke Fear
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airline- ... 33214.html

FlyingElvii · Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:29 am

32andBelow wrote:
Places with mask mandates like Vegas are gonna take a hit.

My last trip to Vegas, in June, was not at all enjoyable.
Long lines due to spacing requirements, long waits for service, and a much lower scale of clientele, at large, than any other time I have been there, which is 100+ times.

Scarebus34 · Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:31 am

Scarebus34 wrote:
Which is a complete overreaction. Cases will plummet in the next few weeks...

Yeah, because we're going to wave a magic wand and everything will go away. Cases won't plummet until people get vaccinated, or we reach heard immunity. That's not going to happen in a few weeks. Don't compare the US's trajectory to UK's -- just weeks ago, the UK was well behind the US in vaccinations, but it's far surpassed us. What happened there wasn't magic.

The Rt has already rolled over in a majority of states which is a sign of a retreating epidemic. You don’t need everyone vaccinated to slow transmission. The amount of people who have been vaccinated coupled with those with immunity from prior infection will provide a pretty good backstop moving forward. Cases will plummet.

32andBelow · Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:53 am

I’ve never been convinced this fall is gonna be good for airlines. With school going back and business travel still depressed who is gonna be flying? October is already the slowest month of the year normally

DanielsBrawley · Tue Aug 10, 2021 7:35 am

Scarebus34 wrote:
Scarebus34 wrote:
Which is a complete overreaction. Cases will plummet in the next few weeks...

Yeah, because we're going to wave a magic wand and everything will go away. Cases won't plummet until people get vaccinated, or we reach heard immunity. That's not going to happen in a few weeks. Don't compare the US's trajectory to UK's -- just weeks ago, the UK was well behind the US in vaccinations, but it's far surpassed us. What happened there wasn't magic.

The Rt has already rolled over in a majority of states which is a sign of a retreating epidemic. You don’t need everyone vaccinated to slow transmission. The amount of people who have been vaccinated coupled with those with immunity from prior infection will provide a pretty good backstop moving forward. Cases will plummet.

I hope your right about cases plummeting because the current trajectory doesn't look good and will negatively impact air travel. This will be easy to gauge though, case data comes out daily so we'll see if you are correct.

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