avek00 wrote:

Corporate travel will be slow and difficult to return. Remember, companies (and CFOs) have now had two budget years with essentially zero travel spend. The inertia of reflexively handing millions to airlines has ended, and travel justification thresholds will be higher than ever.

I disagree.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mU2rpcA ... TREFERRALS

Scarebus34 wrote:

avek00 wrote:

Corporate travel will be slow and difficult to return. Remember, companies (and CFOs) have now had two budget years with essentially zero travel spend. The inertia of reflexively handing millions to airlines has ended, and travel justification thresholds will be higher than ever.

I disagree.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mU2rpcA ... TREFERRALS

That linked video supports my point -- the notion that most business requires in-person meetings is now a relic of a bygone era. Companies and individuals learned how to embrace technology to close deals without the logistical or financial overhead of even one in-person meeting. While some business travel will nonetheless return, the inertia that made in-person face to face meetings the norm no longer exists at most companies. Also, in corporate America, once a reliably efficient new business process takes hold, it's extremely rare to see a reversal.

avek00 wrote:

Scarebus34 wrote:

avek00 wrote:

Corporate travel will be slow and difficult to return. Remember, companies (and CFOs) have now had two budget years with essentially zero travel spend. The inertia of reflexively handing millions to airlines has ended, and travel justification thresholds will be higher than ever.

I disagree.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mU2rpcA ... TREFERRALS

That linked video supports my point -- the notion that most business requires in-person meetings is now a relic of a bygone era. Companies and individuals learned how to embrace technology to close deals without the logistical or financial overhead of even one in-person meeting. While some business travel will nonetheless return, the inertia that made in-person face to face meetings the norm no longer exists at most companies. Also, in corporate America, once a reliably efficient new business process takes hold, it's extremely rare to see a reversal.

uh.. no. The commercial doesn't support your line of thinking at all. But cool story.

There is a lot of data out there indicating that business travel is going to substantially return when this subsides.
There is agreement that there is likely to be less demand / need for business travel in certain segments / trip purposes of business travel that has been replaced either by technology or changes in physical office spaces. However, its not a broad-brush, one size fits all. Trips for "one-on-one meetings, and for performing on-site office work" will be likely reduced. Weekly Mon-Thu on-site road warrior consultants will be taking less frequent trips. Travel for the need to review physical items/products/equipment/facilities will come back strong if it hasn't already. There is still going to a huge value on relationship building that while we've been doing a lot of that virtually over the past year its not necessarily the most effective or natural way of doing so and there a lot of value for some in-person interaction and collaboration.

As we see now, we are in the "recovery" phase of domestic leisure and VFR. That was realistically first seen starting with advanced bookings for March / April, but kicked off really in the past 30 days with expanding of the demand curve / booking window.

The "recovery" phase for corporate travel, which would be defined when we reach a rapid inflection point of bookings has not, and likely will not happen until end of summer. We are approaching about 20% level of bookings and will probably stay in the 20-30% range through summer and shoot up to approaching 50% in September / October timeframe.

The demand curve / booking window for corporate travel is significantly less than leisure / VFR, as most business travel is typically booked within 7 - 21 days out.
Corporate travel is going to be a much slower recovery, but a recovery phase starting in August/September and getting back to about 50% by year-end is feasible. 75%+ of pre-pandemic business travel by Spring 2022 is entirely within range of possibilities, particularly as conventions / training / large meetings come back on-line. I actually believe there is going to be "pent-up" demand for some of these conventions / trade shows / training events for a variety of reasons, particularly in the sense they haven't had many of these things since 2019, people are going to be wanting to get back to these part work/part boondoogles to "get out of the house / office" & reconnect, and also since the hospitality / hotel / airlines are going to be pushing for these things to return.

Maybe, but that's a longer term trend that we won't see really manifest itself one way or another for awhile. Not something we will seem immediately in 2021 or even 2022 but will be interesting to see how that evolves over the next 5 years.

The reality is that a lot of companies are really looking to go back to some type of a hybrid / increased flexibility model for a vast majority of employees. There is going to be a lot of variation by company / industry / region / department / function / role.

People that are going to be in the office 2+ days a week are going to still likely live in a reasonable communiting range of their office.
Once a month, unless its highly paid roles, are still probably not going to move somewhere where they have to foot $1k of travel expenses a month ($10k+) on their own dime.
1-4 times a year sure, then it starts to be worth it, especially if you can live in a lower cost of living region.

That also make a lot of assumptions. Sounds good in theory, but reality is anyone with kids/mortages/spouses are less likely to just transplant themselves. That also assumes that their spouse also has a similar type of job. You have a husband who is a remote worker, but the wife is a school teacher. They aren't going to suddenly just move.
The real estate market is a crazy sellers market right now in most places and a shear lack of inventory. A lot of people would like to move but can't find a place.

It will be interesting to see how the job market evolves as many positions were tied to a geographic location whether or not they will cast a wider net.

Its not going to suddenly happen overnight, but there is likely to long term be some increase in travel associated with distributed workforces that will offset some other types of business travel.
The question on a lot of these is going to be whether the employer or employee covers these travel costs as a part of their compensation package.

At one of my prior companies this was super common for a lot of our younger employees. A lot of our younger people who has 80% travel roles that were assigned to offices in places like CLE, DTW, PIT, CVG most just lived in Chicago. If they were traveling during the week no one really cared and they only had to be in their local office maybe 3-4 weeks a year. It wasn't a problem until they had to be there more often and tried to weasel their way out of being their or footing their travel as a personal expense.

avek00 wrote:

Scarebus34 wrote:

avek00 wrote:

Corporate travel will be slow and difficult to return. Remember, companies (and CFOs) have now had two budget years with essentially zero travel spend. The inertia of reflexively handing millions to airlines has ended, and travel justification thresholds will be higher than ever.

I disagree.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mU2rpcA ... TREFERRALS

That linked video supports my point -- the notion that most business requires in-person meetings is now a relic of a bygone era. Companies and individuals learned how to embrace technology to close deals without the logistical or financial overhead of even one in-person meeting. While some business travel will nonetheless return, the inertia that made in-person face to face meetings the norm no longer exists at most companies. Also, in corporate America, once a reliably efficient new business process takes hold, it's extremely rare to see a reversal.

You’re completely ignoring standard market forces. 4 companies are pitching a client. 3 do a Zoom remotely but 1 decided to spend a few thousand to meet face to face and has an advantage. Then other companies start to go in person as well to compete and build partnership. This is how anything in business works. It won’t happen overnight but it will happen.

chicawgo wrote:

avek00 wrote:

Scarebus34 wrote:

I disagree.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mU2rpcA ... TREFERRALS

That linked video supports my point -- the notion that most business requires in-person meetings is now a relic of a bygone era. Companies and individuals learned how to embrace technology to close deals without the logistical or financial overhead of even one in-person meeting. While some business travel will nonetheless return, the inertia that made in-person face to face meetings the norm no longer exists at most companies. Also, in corporate America, once a reliably efficient new business process takes hold, it's extremely rare to see a reversal.

You’re completely ignoring standard market forces. 4 companies are pitching a client. 3 do a Zoom remotely but 1 decided to spend a few thousand to meet face to face and has an advantage. Then other companies start to go in person as well to compete and build partnership. This is how anything in business works. It won’t happen overnight but it will happen.

Yep....and sales forces will be itching to get everyone out to dinner / drinks and have the meeting after the meeting.

I am actually amazed how much "shadow face-to-face business" is actually going on over the past 12 months. Not necessarily meeting in offices and conference rooms, but a lot more off-the-record meetings at restaurants, outdoor cafes, golf courses, backyard BBQs, etc. This involves executives and sales reps sometimes flying in at their own expense. If you are a person making $500k+, the nominal cost of a $1000 trip to go visit a trusted client and spend a day playing golf on your own dime is priceless to preserve your relationship, career and metrics on the other side.

I remember when that personal touch was necessary to make a .... phone call. And operators were also great as an early version of 911. Every grocer had a butcher, and meat was cut to your personal preferences. Primary care doctors were just 'doctors', and they also would take out your appendix if that were needed. I could shop for clothes for my wife, and the shop owner knew her and was not shy at all about telling me what not to buy. Book stores really were important for us readers. I won't mention Amaz--. Friends operating at very high levels have now done it for over a year, and do not intend to go back to the world of travel, travel, travel. (except to ski).

Those alleged customers who only will buy if the seller of services spends tens of thousands on weekly travel have wised up - they are paying for it all, not the service provider. Business travel will come back, but it will be to a new normal. That normal will evolve business by business. My suspicion is that some sort of Pareto dynamics will evolve, successful companies will know what that 20% of travel is really important. Unsuccessful companies .....

chicawgo wrote:

avek00 wrote:

Scarebus34 wrote:

I disagree.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mU2rpcA ... TREFERRALS

That linked video supports my point -- the notion that most business requires in-person meetings is now a relic of a bygone era. Companies and individuals learned how to embrace technology to close deals without the logistical or financial overhead of even one in-person meeting. While some business travel will nonetheless return, the inertia that made in-person face to face meetings the norm no longer exists at most companies. Also, in corporate America, once a reliably efficient new business process takes hold, it's extremely rare to see a reversal.

You’re completely ignoring standard market forces. 4 companies are pitching a client. 3 do a Zoom remotely but 1 decided to spend a few thousand to meet face to face and has an advantage. Then other companies start to go in person as well to compete and build partnership. This is how anything in business works. It won’t happen overnight but it will happen.

I'm completely embracing standard market forces: Once the corporate world embraces a more resource-efficient way of doing business, willful reversion to a more inefficient business process is quite rare. I like flying as much as anyone but the time (incl. delays), money, and hassles inherent in business travel posed real burdens to companies and employees alike. In my sector (tech), pandemic-era business has boomed, and some of the biggest deals of all time occurred without even ONE physical in-person meeting.

That said, it's true a substantial volume of business travel will eventually return. But there's a solid 20-45%+ of pre pandemic business trips that are now utterly obsolete. In aviation and politics, shifts of just a few percentage points yield massive impacts in real world outcomes.

I have what may be stupid questions on booking trends. My understanding is most airlines use sophisticated revenue management systems in forecasting future bookings, how much a flight can be oversold, etc. These systems include years of historical data. How does an airline adjust these systems for what has gone on during the past year? Also, what data are airlines using to forecast future booking trends? In other words, is the years of data in these revenue management systems even useful on today's environment?

avek00 wrote:

chicawgo wrote:

avek00 wrote:

That linked video supports my point -- the notion that most business requires in-person meetings is now a relic of a bygone era. Companies and individuals learned how to embrace technology to close deals without the logistical or financial overhead of even one in-person meeting. While some business travel will nonetheless return, the inertia that made in-person face to face meetings the norm no longer exists at most companies. Also, in corporate America, once a reliably efficient new business process takes hold, it's extremely rare to see a reversal.

You’re completely ignoring standard market forces. 4 companies are pitching a client. 3 do a Zoom remotely but 1 decided to spend a few thousand to meet face to face and has an advantage. Then other companies start to go in person as well to compete and build partnership. This is how anything in business works. It won’t happen overnight but it will happen.

I'm completely embracing standard market forces: Once the corporate world embraces a more resource-efficient way of doing business, willful reversion to a more inefficient business process is quite rare. I like flying as much as anyone but the time (incl. delays), money, and hassles inherent in business travel posed real burdens to companies and employees alike. In my sector (tech), pandemic-era business has boomed, and some of the biggest deals of all time occurred without even ONE physical in-person meeting.

That said, it's true a substantial volume of business travel will eventually return. But there's a solid 20-45%+ of pre pandemic business trips that are now utterly obsolete. In aviation and politics, shifts of just a few percentage points yield massive impacts in real world outcomes.

20-45% is WAY too high an estimate. 10-15% is more likely.

"If you wont fly to your client, theres someone else who will..."

avek00 wrote:

chicawgo wrote:

avek00 wrote:

That linked video supports my point -- the notion that most business requires in-person meetings is now a relic of a bygone era. Companies and individuals learned how to embrace technology to close deals without the logistical or financial overhead of even one in-person meeting. While some business travel will nonetheless return, the inertia that made in-person face to face meetings the norm no longer exists at most companies. Also, in corporate America, once a reliably efficient new business process takes hold, it's extremely rare to see a reversal.

You’re completely ignoring standard market forces. 4 companies are pitching a client. 3 do a Zoom remotely but 1 decided to spend a few thousand to meet face to face and has an advantage. Then other companies start to go in person as well to compete and build partnership. This is how anything in business works. It won’t happen overnight but it will happen.

I'm completely embracing standard market forces: Once the corporate world embraces a more resource-efficient way of doing business, willful reversion to a more inefficient business process is quite rare. I like flying as much as anyone but the time (incl. delays), money, and hassles inherent in business travel posed real burdens to companies and employees alike. In my sector (tech), pandemic-era business has boomed, and some of the biggest deals of all time occurred without even ONE physical in-person meeting.

That said, it's true a substantial volume of business travel will eventually return. But there's a solid 20-45%+ of pre pandemic business trips that are now utterly obsolete. In aviation and politics, shifts of just a few percentage points yield massive impacts in real world outcomes.

Every single downturn the same exact thing is said. A certain percentage of premium biz customers have found GA, and may never return. The proof of that is in the numbers, as well as anecdotal, like the two brand new Phenoms that arrived at my home airport this week, for a corp that traveled extensively by airline before Covid.

They discovered just how efficient GA can really be, out and back on the same day, the local airport is five minutes from the offices, while the big airport can be a hour away or more depending on traffic, not including getting the bags, walking the garage, etc.. Again, it has happened before, they will be replaced by new travelers, though likely not right away.

No matter how you slice it, PEOPLE SELL PEOPLE. You aren't going to build relationships with clients, or make that big deal on Zoom.

LAXdude1023 wrote:

avek00 wrote:

chicawgo wrote:

You’re completely ignoring standard market forces. 4 companies are pitching a client. 3 do a Zoom remotely but 1 decided to spend a few thousand to meet face to face and has an advantage. Then other companies start to go in person as well to compete and build partnership. This is how anything in business works. It won’t happen overnight but it will happen.

I'm completely embracing standard market forces: Once the corporate world embraces a more resource-efficient way of doing business, willful reversion to a more inefficient business process is quite rare. I like flying as much as anyone but the time (incl. delays), money, and hassles inherent in business travel posed real burdens to companies and employees alike. In my sector (tech), pandemic-era business has boomed, and some of the biggest deals of all time occurred without even ONE physical in-person meeting.

That said, it's true a substantial volume of business travel will eventually return. But there's a solid 20-45%+ of pre pandemic business trips that are now utterly obsolete. In aviation and politics, shifts of just a few percentage points yield massive impacts in real world outcomes.

20-45% is WAY too high an estimate. 10-15% is more likely.

"If you wont fly to your client, theres someone else who will..."

You're assuming customers/clients want the hassle -- and overhead, and distraction -- of hosting in person meetings. IME vendor deals in the new normal move more quickly on the admin processes -- and engage more potential vendors than before -- because we're not wasting time entertaining in-person dog and pony shows.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

I am actually amazed how much "shadow face-to-face business" is actually going on over the past 12 months. Not necessarily meeting in offices and conference rooms, but a lot more off-the-record meetings at restaurants, outdoor cafes, golf courses, backyard BBQs, etc.

Our sales team has met customers in parking lots and golf courses over the past year. One guy baked probably 5,000 cookies to send to his international and hand deliver to his local customers.

Allow me to ask something to the contrary of what y’all are talking about though...There are a lot of us road warriors who didn’t miss travel and actually enjoyed being home for more than a few days at a time. I missed being in the air for sure and I missed my employees and customers, but the airport? Didn’t miss that one bit. I’m doing everything I can to not go back to my 2019 levels of travel where I rarely had more than four days in a row at home. If I’m just as effective in my role from home, why am I going to get back on the road as frequently?

I agree with the sentiment that some business travel will never return, but I am confident most (at least 80%) will return by 2022. My hypothesis is that many of the folks thinking business travel will remain significantly reduced long term are extreme introverts who really never liked meeting other people in person anyway. Many extreme introverts have done well during the pandemic, because they have been able to avoid something they really dread, in person human interaction.

The rest of us really want to travel and interact with humans in person ASAP.

avek00 wrote:

LAXdude1023 wrote:

avek00 wrote:

I'm completely embracing standard market forces: Once the corporate world embraces a more resource-efficient way of doing business, willful reversion to a more inefficient business process is quite rare. I like flying as much as anyone but the time (incl. delays), money, and hassles inherent in business travel posed real burdens to companies and employees alike. In my sector (tech), pandemic-era business has boomed, and some of the biggest deals of all time occurred without even ONE physical in-person meeting.

That said, it's true a substantial volume of business travel will eventually return. But there's a solid 20-45%+ of pre pandemic business trips that are now utterly obsolete. In aviation and politics, shifts of just a few percentage points yield massive impacts in real world outcomes.

20-45% is WAY too high an estimate. 10-15% is more likely.

"If you wont fly to your client, theres someone else who will..."

You're assuming customers/clients want the hassle -- and overhead, and distraction -- of hosting in person meetings. IME vendor deals in the new normal move more quickly on the admin processes -- and engage more potential vendors than before -- because we're not wasting time entertaining in-person dog and pony shows.

You're really trying to convince yourself you're going to be right.

Scarebus34 wrote:

avek00 wrote:

LAXdude1023 wrote:

20-45% is WAY too high an estimate. 10-15% is more likely.

"If you wont fly to your client, theres someone else who will..."

You're assuming customers/clients want the hassle -- and overhead, and distraction -- of hosting in person meetings. IME vendor deals in the new normal move more quickly on the admin processes -- and engage more potential vendors than before -- because we're not wasting time entertaining in-person dog and pony shows.

You're really trying to convince yourself you're going to be right.

Just like all the sales people in this thread trying to convince themselves that their bloated T&E expenses are necessary...? My (Fortune 100) company has actually increased sales during the pandemic with a company-wide travel ban in place. If some sales person went to senior management and asked for their 2019 T&E budget back, they'd be laughed out of the room.

Despite that, clearly there is some value to T&E, so I'm not saying it will go away entirely. But now that it's been proven that the world can function without wining and dining every single client, I think the market will converge towards that more efficient state. T&E will be more targeted rather than a blanket policy. As someone else said here, the Pareto principle will come into play - most of the value in traveling comes from a minority of the deals. Both customers and companies now recognize that, so the market will trend towards that more efficient state.

32andBelow wrote:

DoctorVenkman wrote:

Scarebus34 wrote:

You're really trying to convince yourself you're going to be right.

Just like all the sales people in this thread trying to convince themselves that their bloated T&E expenses are necessary...? My (Fortune 100) company has actually increased sales during the pandemic with a company-wide travel ban in place. If some sales person went to senior management and asked for their 2019 T&E budget back, they'd be laughed out of the room.

Despite that, clearly there is some value to T&E, so I'm not saying it will go away entirely. But now that it's been proven that the world can function without wining and dining every single client, I think the market will converge towards that more efficient state. T&E will be more targeted rather than a blanket policy. As someone else said here, the Pareto principle will come into play - most of the value in traveling comes from a minority of the deals. Both customers and companies now recognize that, so the market will trend towards that more efficient state.

That’s assuming you’ll continue on the same trajectory when your competitors start traveling. It’s impossible to know.

I think many folks have a US/Western bias on business travel. I think the US/EU will probably only get back to about 80% of 2019 business travel in 2022 due their cultures. However, when it is safe to travel to Latin/South America, I believe business travel will quickly come back 100%. The business to business culture is totally different in Latin/South America and they place a much higher value on in-person relationships. Maybe someone can comment on Asian B to B culture?

Very bullish sentiments from Wall Street this week:

Morgan Stanley expects capacity to recover back to 2019 levels by early 2022
'https://www.barrons.com/articles/airline-stocks-travel-recovery-delta-american-united-51617726027

Midwestindy wrote:

In partnership with ForwardKeys, below provides a 2021 vs. 2019 same week comparison of net airline ticket purchase trends for major U.S. destinations for any future date.

NOTE: Data below is representative of all tickets purchased and paid, including any cancellations, representing % tickets purchased relative to same week in 2019.

This has been updated to % purchased vs. same week in 2019 - using same week 2019 as control/index to better highlight recovery progress.



https://forwardkeys.com/global-recovery-dashboard/

https://forwardkeys.com/global-recovery-dashboard/

Maui & the Big Island are up vs 2019 so far in April

http://dbedt.hawaii.gov/visitor/dailypax-dashboard/

For large corporate travel, I see them delaying travel especially when bean counters see the amount of money that they have "saved". For smaller companies, like mine, that do not have name recognition, the way we introduce our products is through trade shows. How often have we done trade shows, a potential customer walks by, sees something that catches their attention, and the conversation starts. Before they walked by, they did not know that they needed our products. In other words, customers do not know that they need our products in order to save time or money, until they see it. Zoom meetings would not work. Granted I will be waiting awhile till i ramp up travelling as I am not going to spend the money at a trade show and attendance is limited. For reference in 2019, I personally did 20 trips, and for the past year, none. Sales are not bad, but I will be ready to spend once vaccination is done or partially done.

AJ

wr911 wrote:

For large corporate travel, I see them delaying travel especially when bean counters see the amount of money that they have "saved". For smaller companies, like mine, that do not have name recognition, the way we introduce our products is through trade shows. How often have we done trade shows, a potential customer walks by, sees something that catches their attention, and the conversation starts. Before they walked by, they did not know that they needed our products. In other words, customers do not know that they need our products in order to save time or money, until they see it. Zoom meetings would not work. Granted I will be waiting awhile till i ramp up travelling as I am not going to spend the money at a trade show and attendance is limited. For reference in 2019, I personally did 20 trips, and for the past year, none. Sales are not bad, but I will be ready to spend once vaccination is done or partially done.

AJ

This is a very good point. For large corps, their product is generally well known and speaks for itself. The main negotiations are around pricing and terms which can all be done pretty easily over zoom. For smaller shops with little or no brand recognition, face-to-face interactions can be much more valuable to help sell the product.

That being said, I'd be interested to see any data on the split of corporate travel by company size. My guess is that Fortune 500's drive the vast majority of corporate travel but I've never seen any hard data one way or the other.

DoctorVenkman wrote:

wr911 wrote:

For large corporate travel, I see them delaying travel especially when bean counters see the amount of money that they have "saved". For smaller companies, like mine, that do not have name recognition, the way we introduce our products is through trade shows. How often have we done trade shows, a potential customer walks by, sees something that catches their attention, and the conversation starts. Before they walked by, they did not know that they needed our products. In other words, customers do not know that they need our products in order to save time or money, until they see it. Zoom meetings would not work. Granted I will be waiting awhile till i ramp up travelling as I am not going to spend the money at a trade show and attendance is limited. For reference in 2019, I personally did 20 trips, and for the past year, none. Sales are not bad, but I will be ready to spend once vaccination is done or partially done.

AJ

This is a very good point. For large corps, their product is generally well known and speaks for itself. The main negotiations are around pricing and terms which can all be done pretty easily over zoom. For smaller shops with little or no brand recognition, face-to-face interactions can be much more valuable to help sell the product.

That being said, I'd be interested to see any data on the split of corporate travel by company size. My guess is that Fortune 500's drive the vast majority of corporate travel but I've never seen any hard data one way or the other.

You’re talking as if it’s 150 years ago and every company manufactures and sells physical products. The service industries probably make up a hugely disproportionate amount of biz travel. Consultants, agencies, creative, accountants, you name it. Many of these are huge companies that cannot pitch well over webinar because it is our vision and energy and ability to connect with potential clients that gets us the business over competitors. I work for one of the big 3 global media companies. In fact, it is standard practice in large pitches that clients first have a “chemistry session” before we even are allowed to pitch. Several bidders don’t make it past the chemistry session. This is standard industry practice for Fortune 500 companies.

The posters on here that keep saying “everyone realized so much of this can be done well over zoom and won’t return to in person” are completely ignoring the fact that we were FORCED to do it over Zoom. Not because it was ideal. Our pitches are for literally billions of dollars of media. It’s all about relationships and those who aren’t willing to spend $20k on an elaborate in person pitch and entertainment will be at a severe disadvantage. We did it this way because we had to. Not because most people wanted to.

wr911 wrote:

For large corporate travel, I see them delaying travel especially when bean counters see the amount of money that they have "saved". For smaller companies, like mine, that do not have name recognition, the way we introduce our products is through trade shows. How often have we done trade shows, a potential customer walks by, sees something that catches their attention, and the conversation starts. Before they walked by, they did not know that they needed our products. In other words, customers do not know that they need our products in order to save time or money, until they see it. Zoom meetings would not work. Granted I will be waiting awhile till i ramp up travelling as I am not going to spend the money at a trade show and attendance is limited. For reference in 2019, I personally did 20 trips, and for the past year, none. Sales are not bad, but I will be ready to spend once vaccination is done or partially done.

AJ

Business travel isn't going to come back in numbers until the large events and conferences do. And like it or not, that is very political now.
As we are seeing, large events have restarted in the "Free States", with the attendant travel. Very large events in those states, like Bonnaroo are a go for this summer. Not so much, or very attendance restricted, in the other states.

LCDFlight wrote:

chicawgo wrote:

DoctorVenkman wrote:

This is a very good point. For large corps, their product is generally well known and speaks for itself. The main negotiations are around pricing and terms which can all be done pretty easily over zoom. For smaller shops with little or no brand recognition, face-to-face interactions can be much more valuable to help sell the product.

That being said, I'd be interested to see any data on the split of corporate travel by company size. My guess is that Fortune 500's drive the vast majority of corporate travel but I've never seen any hard data one way or the other.

You’re talking as if it’s 150 years ago and every company manufactures and sells physical products. The service industries probably make up a hugely disproportionate amount of biz travel. Consultants, agencies, creative, accountants, you name it. Many of these are huge companies that cannot pitch well over webinar because it is our vision and energy and ability to connect with potential clients that gets us the business over competitors. I work for one of the big 3 global media companies. In fact, it is standard practice in large pitches that clients first have a “chemistry session” before we even are allowed to pitch. Several bidders don’t make it past the chemistry session. This is standard industry practice for Fortune 500 companies.

The posters on here that keep saying “everyone realized so much of this can be done well over zoom and won’t return to in person” are completely ignoring the fact that we were FORCED to do it over Zoom. Not because it was ideal. Our pitches are for literally billions of dollars of media. It’s all about relationships and those who aren’t willing to spend $20k on an elaborate in person pitch and entertainment will be at a severe disadvantage. We did it this way because we had to. Not because most people wanted to.

Meh... it sounds really cool having these close personal connections, but you have to realize that a significant number of your principals will NOT be meeting with you ever again.

You will need to hone the work virtually. If you are dissatisfied with the product, improve it. This situation has already been true in my workplaces for >10 years. The logistics of 12 people being in a room for a meeting are unbelievably cumbersome. It is getting to the point where that is hard to imagine doing it again. Those people all need to live in the same city, or travel to it, just to meet? How inefficient. Also consider that, if they are important, those 12 people have other meetings that day. Lots of other meetings.

So I respect what you are saying, but I don't think the cost and bother of face-to-face meetings can be easily justified in the future. Even for big meetings, it's not about that. Even Board of Directors meetings will be increasingly virtual. Just my 2c. White collar work is going virtual, and offices will mostly go away.

Well I was using the example of a pitch. But in any event it sounds to me like the biggest problem you had was scheduling a meeting with 12 people. I don’t think ive ever had an important business meeting with that many people in the same room. No wonder it’s inefficient!

I respect your opinion as an opinion but you haven’t really given any data or evidence that everything has gone virtual for good and offices will mostly disappear.

Another thing that hasn’t been mentioned is that a primary perk for attracting top talent in entry level and junior positions is having a great culture. When you’re starting out and making crap salary to get experience your main benefit is socializing, bonding, happy hours, collaborating, fancy lunches, gyms, being entertained by vendors, etc. The majority of young talent want that in their early years and companies that don’t provide that don’t attract top talent. Yes there will always be people that are more independent and just like to do their work and sign off but that’s not the majority. Businesses will likely give a lot more flexibility to those people. And that’s fine because we don’t want them in the office anyway but companies will want to provide a strong culture for those that want it.

So much of the business discussion here is all around "sales"? Is that really the majority of US business travel?

What about all the internal meetings, get togethers etc - the "competitors do it" don't apply to internal business meetings, remote support has been developed such that is needed less - other than in the same situations it was already being done other than in industries where it was more shut down.

Are there stats on the reasons for business travel?

JibberJim wrote:

So much of the business discussion here is all around "sales"? Is that really the majority of US business travel?

What about all the internal meetings, get togethers etc - the "competitors do it" don't apply to internal business meetings, remote support has been developed such that is needed less - other than in the same situations it was already being done other than in industries where it was more shut down.

Are there stats on the reasons for business travel?

One older one from Oxford Economics:

Midwestindy wrote:

https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/Media/D ... Travel.pdf


Conferences, Trade shows, Incentives, Internal Trainings, and likely even Sales Meetings(given the competitive nature of the sales process) will all probably return to pre-COVID levels. The two pieces that are questionable, IMO, are Internal meetings and Client office work.

One from the Global Business Travel Association, conducted in late 2020:


https://www.gbta.org/blog/gbta-poll-in- ... e-in-2021/

I'll also add that there have been numerous studies done on business travel recovery post downturn, I already know people will say "BUT THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT," but I still think it is worth acknowledging.



https://www.ustravel.org/sites/default/ ... Report.pdf

Early summer bookings warming up, look at the spike this week in 31-60 days





https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/repor ... page/T4qIB

RicFlyer wrote:

Latest TSA checkpoint numbers:
Sunday, 4/4 1,543,474 down (30,754) compared to previous week 62% of 2019
Monday, 4/5 1,561,959 up 155,725 compared to previous week 65% of 2019
Tuesday 4/6 1,195,306 up 135,547 compared to previous week 57% of 2019

Based on the number above I expect we will see over 10 million travelers the week (Sunday-Saturday)

Sorry I missed a few days but here where I work (in the office) we have been busy and tomorrow I travel again to meet with clients. Almost every client we called to to say we would like an in person meeting is overjoyed that someone is willing to come meet them in person and talk. We are hearing from our clients (including new ones) they want in person meetings and are tired of everything over Zoom. Some may believe that business travel will not come back but for us it is coming back stronger because the economy is strong now and we find people do want in person meetings. FYI, the only area we are seeing a little push back is in NYC and California.

Regarding up 135k Tuesday the 6th over last week, I think the TSA revised some numbers for last week. 3/30 number looks like it changed from the original posted number last week. I don’t recall it being that high and your plus 135k sounds about right for the original number. I say this in case you have an excel sheet to update with the revised numbers.

3/30/2021 1,130,520

A few more interesting updates:

Northeast still dragging down the rest of the country



US-Mexico at 85% of 2019



Load Factor above 75%, not even factoring in DL's middle seat blockage


https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

RicFlyer wrote:

IdlewildJFK wrote:

RicFlyer wrote:

Regarding up 135k Tuesday the 6th over last week, I think the TSA revised some numbers for last week. 3/30 number looks like it changed from the original posted number last week. I don’t recall it being that high and your plus 135k sounds about right for the original number. I say this in case you have an excel sheet to update with the revised numbers.

3/30/2021 1,130,520

You are correct going off a spreadsheet. Since it was government information I should have known there would be revisions...LOL

Revised Latest TSA checkpoint numbers:
Sunday, 4/4 1,543,474 down (30,754) compared to previous week 62% of 2019
Monday, 4/5 1,561,959 up 155,725 compared to previous week 65% of 2019
Tuesday 4/6 1,195,306 up 64,786 compared to previous week 57% of 2019

Based on the number above I still expect we will see over 10 million travelers the week (Sunday-Saturday)

Cool I figured that. We appreciate your updates - thanks for doing them.

Yep....this week is the last of the really big traditional spring break weeks, and also coming off of Easter weekend which would explain why Sunday (Easter) was down and Monday & Tuesday were up significantly.

I wouldn't be surprised if actuals are down slightly the next two weeks as we transition out of spring break but on the other hand, its still going to be a big time for anyone not tied to K-12 school calenders. Considering how air fares were pretty high across the board during this time, I wouldn't be surprised if that spilled people into slightly more off-peak weeks throughout April.

JibberJim wrote:

So much of the business discussion here is all around "sales"? Is that really the majority of US business travel?

What about all the internal meetings, get togethers etc - the "competitors do it" don't apply to internal business meetings, remote support has been developed such that is needed less - other than in the same situations it was already being done other than in industries where it was more shut down.

Are there stats on the reasons for business travel?

Thanks to Midwestindy for providing data!

The "competitors do it" absolutely does apply to internal. Younger generations have shown that they care very much about company culture and top talent is attracted by those that have a strong community and tangible benefits - not just health insurance and 401k.

This is why organizations were having million dollar "retreats" and "summits" at the Four Seasons and Ritz before Covid. It didn't start that way. But competition drives an arms race and it will come back eventually until the next downturn.

I've had two people on my team leave in the last month because they said they felt the "sense of community" was lacking over the past year. I was stunned into silence not sure if they were joking considering there is a pretty valid excuse for that across the board. I think a lot of people aren't completely aware of why the feel this way but they are definitely affected by being fully remote.

32andBelow wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Early summer bookings warming up, look at the spike this week in 31-60 days





https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/repor ... page/T4qIB

A couple big states are throwing June 15th around.

Interesting, IMO based on the bookings coming in now we should get a nice push in travel before June 15th, in the May time frame.

We haven't seen forward bookings be anywhere close to this high during the entire pandemic.

There is a reason airlines are starting to re-hire again, we'll see if they will put enough capacity out this summer. I know Spirit has said they are worried about not having enough capacity to meet demand this summer.

I personally think the death of corporate travel is overestimated. As a former production engineer in manufacturing the guy coming in person to survey conditions, location, objectives of a piece of equipment had a huge competitive advantage over his competition. Several even suggested different product offerings after physically reviewing the location of equipment and needs/desires of our manufacturing plant. I can’t speak for other industries but manufacturing/production in my opinion is very sensitive to in person sales and consulting. Sites can be very very site specific and specialized.

I would also think there is some pent up demand for things that have been pushed off in terms of updating, modernizing etc that will ‘bounce’ back. Traveling engineers/maintenance have been moving around the country all along, I expect the ‘optional’ work will start to pick back up now demanding more travel.

International business I expect to be the slowest segment of all, due to country by country requirements.

I think business travel will rebound, but the big impact won’t be noticed until next year. My company is DC-based and we work with many large trade associations. Many that typically host large in person conventions. We’re busy right now recording panel discussions and keynotes for virtual events this summer and into October. Many of these organizations pull in an audience from nearly every state, and while some people feel safe traveling, many do not. Also, we have one client that considered an in person event in July and their board voted against it because the hotel (in Orlando) required a hold harmless that pretty much put all liability on the organization.

Looking at the stats above, it does not surprise me that DC is still way down. None of our government clients are allowed to travel right now and many haven’t event begun talking about return to work.

One more interesting observation, I had a last minute work trip for Seattle next week pop up today. I mainly fly DL. Flight options were limited on DL. Y fare was about $600. Flights were fairly full. Keeping in mind middle seats are blocked through end of April.

32andBelow wrote:

dcaproducer wrote:

I think business travel will rebound, but the big impact won’t be noticed until next year. My company is DC-based and we work with many large trade associations. Many that typically host large in person conventions. We’re busy right now recording panel discussions and keynotes for virtual events this summer and into October. Many of these organizations pull in an audience from nearly every state, and while some people feel safe traveling, many do not. Also, we have one client that considered an in person event in July and their board voted against it because the hotel (in Orlando) required a hold harmless that pretty much put all liability on the organization.

Looking at the stats above, it does not surprise me that DC is still way down. None of our government clients are allowed to travel right now and many haven’t event begun talking about return to work.

One more interesting observation, I had a last minute work trip for Seattle next week pop up today. I mainly fly DL. Flight options were limited on DL. Y fare was about $600. Flights were fairly full. Keeping in mind middle seats are blocked through end of April.

People actual go to these virtual conventions? I wouldn’t be caught in a 3 day zoom meeting ever.

Yes. An companies pay good $$ for virtual sponsor booths. They’re a little more elaborate than a Zoom meeting.

dcaproducer wrote:

32andBelow wrote:

dcaproducer wrote:

I think business travel will rebound, but the big impact won’t be noticed until next year. My company is DC-based and we work with many large trade associations. Many that typically host large in person conventions. We’re busy right now recording panel discussions and keynotes for virtual events this summer and into October. Many of these organizations pull in an audience from nearly every state, and while some people feel safe traveling, many do not. Also, we have one client that considered an in person event in July and their board voted against it because the hotel (in Orlando) required a hold harmless that pretty much put all liability on the organization.

Looking at the stats above, it does not surprise me that DC is still way down. None of our government clients are allowed to travel right now and many haven’t event begun talking about return to work.

One more interesting observation, I had a last minute work trip for Seattle next week pop up today. I mainly fly DL. Flight options were limited on DL. Y fare was about $600. Flights were fairly full. Keeping in mind middle seats are blocked through end of April.

People actual go to these virtual conventions? I wouldn’t be caught in a 3 day zoom meeting ever.

Yes. An companies pay good $$ for virtual sponsor booths. They’re a little more elaborate than a Zoom meeting.

I went to one. It was one of the most depressing experiences of my career. I’ll never do it again.

LAXdude1023 wrote:

dcaproducer wrote:

32andBelow wrote:

People actual go to these virtual conventions? I wouldn’t be caught in a 3 day zoom meeting ever.

Yes. An companies pay good $$ for virtual sponsor booths. They’re a little more elaborate than a Zoom meeting.

I went to one. It was one of the most depressing experiences of my career. I’ll never do it again.

Same here. It was a convention for the main professional organization in my field of work back in January. I was a panelist for one session and attended a few other sessions. As a panelist, it was very hard to gauge audience reaction when you couldn't read body language. There were also far fewer questions than we would have typically taken from an in-person audience. It was absolutely awful, and I will not be attending if it is a virtual event again next year. The convention is also a time to reconnect with former colleagues, and that was not possible this year. They attempted "happy hours" each evening, but it was more depressing than anything else.

Midwestindy wrote:

32andBelow wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Early summer bookings warming up, look at the spike this week in 31-60 days





https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/repor ... page/T4qIB

A couple big states are throwing June 15th around.

Interesting, IMO based on the bookings coming in now we should get a nice push in travel before June 15th, in the May time frame.

We haven't seen forward bookings be anywhere close to this high during the entire pandemic.

There is a reason airlines are starting to re-hire again, we'll see if they will put enough capacity out this summer. I know Spirit has said they are worried about not having enough capacity to meet demand this summer.

"Southwest Airlines Recalls Flight Attendants Due to Heavy Summer Flight Schedule"

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/south ... e/2600802/

Big news from Allegiant:

"Capacity was up roughly three percent, when compared to 2019, with March capacity up 14 percent."

"Average daily bookings for the month exceeded average daily bookings during the same time period in 2019. The significant improvement in March demand coupled with our industry-leading cost structure enabled us to generate positive EPS and EBITDA for the month of March, excluding the benefit from the payroll support grant.

"We remain optimistic about peak summer travel. With national vaccination rates steadily increasing and average daily bookings trending in the right direction, we expect sequential revenue improvements into the second quarter"

https://ir.allegiantair.com/news-releas ... 21-traffic

Midwestindy wrote:

Early summer bookings warming up, look at the spike this week in 31-60 days





https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/repor ... page/T4qIB

Good trend reversal last week as alluded to above:

https://www2.arccorp.com/about-us/newsr ... l-11-2021/

Good 8K from UA this morning as well:

" In March 2021, the Company observed a forward acceleration in customer demand for travel and new bookings, resulting in positive average daily core cash flow (as defined below) for the month of March 2021 and expected positive average daily core cash flow moving forward. Average daily core cash flow (or core cash burn) for the first quarter of 2021 is expected to be approximately negative $9 million per day, an improvement of about $10 million per day compared to the negative average daily core cash flow (or core cash burn) reported for the fourth quarter of 2020."

https://ir.united.com/static-files/ea04 ... 4186ef7f0c