Yep.....fares on my sun / beach/ leisure routes are high over the next couple of weeks, typical of peak demand pricing you would normally see around peak spring break.
That is going to snuff out a lot of last-minute opportunistic travel. Not just airlines, but for hotels/rentals and rental cars too.

I’m sure the majors will get as many extra sections and upgauges in these markets if they are truly running out of inventory.

Will delta and the others start training their senior crews back into the wide bodies soon?

RicFlyer wrote:

Sunday, March 28, was the highest TSA checkpoint travel number, since March 14,2014 at 1,574,228 or 62% of the 2019 number.

How much higher can this number go with the airlines operating less flights. We know that we cannot reach the 2019 number since there are less flights flying and Delta still blocking middle seats. Just asking while sitting on my mothers couch in the basement....lol

There is still a lot of open capacity out there in some markets that will allow numbers to increase but the growth will slow unless carriers start to add extra sections for April in the busiest of markets. April also transitions out of seasonal ski flying so that frees up aircraft that will be flying elsewhere.

In my opinion, 1.65 to 1.7 million is about the max we will see until after mid-May

TSA checkpoint number continues to inch up, Monday, March 29 1,406,234 people up 45,944 (3%) compared to last Monday. This is 59% of the 2019 number.

This week and and next are peak spring break weeks for most of the midwest and Northeast schools and with Easter-long weekend related travel in the middle.

DL is raising summer capacity projection, given total ASMs include Int'l, domestic will likely be around 90%+ :

"Mr. Esposito says, Delta’s available seat miles —middle seats included—will be 15%-20% fewer this summer than in 2019."

"Delta, which has the unique opportunity to increase capacity for sale by 30% by ending its block on middle seats on April 30, says its Salt Lake City hub is already larger than it was in 2019"

AA:

"American says in May it will be about 75% as big as it was in May 2019, measured in systemwide available seat miles"

"Both its Charlotte and Dallas-Fort Worth hubs will be almost as big as 2019," Mr. Znotins says

"The carrier will have triple the number of seats this summer to Billings, Mont., compared with 2019. St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands will be up 150%. Cancún—already a big destination—will be 36% bigger than 2019," Mr. Znotins says

UA:

"In May, United will be about 55% of the size it was in May 2019 in terms of capacity, he says. June and July will be much bigger, but still below 2019 levels. Those schedules will be loaded “in a few weeks."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/airlines-a ... 1617195627

"BofA's checks point to leisure booking levels just 2.1% off from 2019 levels, although corporate travel is still down 77.2%"
https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-rating ... t-blue-sou

alasizon wrote:

RicFlyer wrote:

Sunday, March 28, was the highest TSA checkpoint travel number, since March 14,2014 at 1,574,228 or 62% of the 2019 number.

How much higher can this number go with the airlines operating less flights. We know that we cannot reach the 2019 number since there are less flights flying and Delta still blocking middle seats. Just asking while sitting on my mothers couch in the basement....lol

There is still a lot of open capacity out there in some markets that will allow numbers to increase but the growth will slow unless carriers start to add extra sections for April in the busiest of markets. April also transitions out of seasonal ski flying so that frees up aircraft that will be flying elsewhere.

In my opinion, 1.65 to 1.7 million is about the max we will see until after mid-May

I think we'll be pushing 2 million by memorial day.

US-Mexico traffic at 80%+ of 2019, Latin America & Domestic around 60%

True domestic LF is around 75% accounting for seat blocking policies.




https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

Midwestindy wrote:

DL is raising summer capacity projection, given total ASMs include Int'l, domestic will likely be around 90%+ :

"Mr. Esposito says, Delta’s available seat miles —middle seats included—will be 15%-20% fewer this summer than in 2019."

"Delta, which has the unique opportunity to increase capacity for sale by 30% by ending its block on middle seats on April 30, says its Salt Lake City hub is already larger than it was in 2019"

AA:

"American says in May it will be about 75% as big as it was in May 2019, measured in systemwide available seat miles"

"Both its Charlotte and Dallas-Fort Worth hubs will be almost as big as 2019," Mr. Znotins says

"The carrier will have triple the number of seats this summer to Billings, Mont., compared with 2019. St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands will be up 150%. Cancún—already a big destination—will be 36% bigger than 2019," Mr. Znotins says

UA:

"In May, United will be about 55% of the size it was in May 2019 in terms of capacity, he says. June and July will be much bigger, but still below 2019 levels. Those schedules will be loaded “in a few weeks."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/airlines-a ... 1617195627

"BofA's checks point to leisure booking levels just 2.1% off from 2019 levels, although corporate travel is still down 77.2%"
https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-rating ... t-blue-sou

The Northeast, especially New York, is going to be hard hit again this summer. No conferences, no large events, no meetings, means no reason to go TO New York.

I attend a very large event in Northern Wisconsin every year. Huge economic boost for the area, hundreds of thousands of mostly upper income folks with disposable cash, and they don't mind spending it. The general concensus seems to be that the spring event next month in Florida is going to be a much better show to attend, given the expected restrictions in Wisconsin. Unless something causes those restrictions to be lifted, I'll be spending my money in Florida, not Wisconsin this year.

* UNITED AIRLINES CEO SAYS DOMESTIC LEISURE DEMAND 'HAS ALMOST ENTIRELY RECOVERED' - U.S. AVIATION SUMMIT

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/sta ... 72838?s=20

FlyingElvii wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

DL is raising summer capacity projection, given total ASMs include Int'l, domestic will likely be around 90%+ :

"Mr. Esposito says, Delta’s available seat miles —middle seats included—will be 15%-20% fewer this summer than in 2019."

"Delta, which has the unique opportunity to increase capacity for sale by 30% by ending its block on middle seats on April 30, says its Salt Lake City hub is already larger than it was in 2019"

AA:

"American says in May it will be about 75% as big as it was in May 2019, measured in systemwide available seat miles"

"Both its Charlotte and Dallas-Fort Worth hubs will be almost as big as 2019," Mr. Znotins says

"The carrier will have triple the number of seats this summer to Billings, Mont., compared with 2019. St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands will be up 150%. Cancún—already a big destination—will be 36% bigger than 2019," Mr. Znotins says

UA:

"In May, United will be about 55% of the size it was in May 2019 in terms of capacity, he says. June and July will be much bigger, but still below 2019 levels. Those schedules will be loaded “in a few weeks."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/airlines-a ... 1617195627

"BofA's checks point to leisure booking levels just 2.1% off from 2019 levels, although corporate travel is still down 77.2%"
https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-rating ... t-blue-sou

The Northeast, especially New York, is going to be hard hit again this summer. No conferences, no large events, no meetings, means no reason to go TO New York.

I attend a very large event in Northern Wisconsin every year. Huge economic boost for the area, hundreds of thousands of mostly upper income folks with disposable cash, and they don't mind spending it. The general concensus seems to be that the spring event next month in Florida is going to be a much better show to attend, given the expected restrictions in Wisconsin. Unless something causes those restrictions to be lifted, I'll be spending my money in Florida, not Wisconsin this year.

April event in FL, that is related to a bigger summer event in WI. This is an airline forum. I’m pretty sure we all know what two events you are referring to. Honest question, why not say the names? I’m generally curious, not trying to be that person.

IdlewildJFK wrote:

FlyingElvii wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

DL is raising summer capacity projection, given total ASMs include Int'l, domestic will likely be around 90%+ :

"Mr. Esposito says, Delta’s available seat miles —middle seats included—will be 15%-20% fewer this summer than in 2019."

"Delta, which has the unique opportunity to increase capacity for sale by 30% by ending its block on middle seats on April 30, says its Salt Lake City hub is already larger than it was in 2019"

AA:

"American says in May it will be about 75% as big as it was in May 2019, measured in systemwide available seat miles"

"Both its Charlotte and Dallas-Fort Worth hubs will be almost as big as 2019," Mr. Znotins says

"The carrier will have triple the number of seats this summer to Billings, Mont., compared with 2019. St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands will be up 150%. Cancún—already a big destination—will be 36% bigger than 2019," Mr. Znotins says

UA:

"In May, United will be about 55% of the size it was in May 2019 in terms of capacity, he says. June and July will be much bigger, but still below 2019 levels. Those schedules will be loaded “in a few weeks."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/airlines-a ... 1617195627

"BofA's checks point to leisure booking levels just 2.1% off from 2019 levels, although corporate travel is still down 77.2%"
https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-rating ... t-blue-sou

The Northeast, especially New York, is going to be hard hit again this summer. No conferences, no large events, no meetings, means no reason to go TO New York.

I attend a very large event in Northern Wisconsin every year. Huge economic boost for the area, hundreds of thousands of mostly upper income folks with disposable cash, and they don't mind spending it. The general concensus seems to be that the spring event next month in Florida is going to be a much better show to attend, given the expected restrictions in Wisconsin. Unless something causes those restrictions to be lifted, I'll be spending my money in Florida, not Wisconsin this year.

April event in FL, that is related to a bigger summer event in WI. This is an airline forum. I’m pretty sure we all know what two events you are referring to. Honest question, why not say the names? I’m generally curious, not trying to be that person.

It is an airline forum, but the percentage of GA folks is rather small, I believe. Not everyone would know what any of it means.

FlyingElvii wrote:

IdlewildJFK wrote:

FlyingElvii wrote:

The Northeast, especially New York, is going to be hard hit again this summer. No conferences, no large events, no meetings, means no reason to go TO New York.

I attend a very large event in Northern Wisconsin every year. Huge economic boost for the area, hundreds of thousands of mostly upper income folks with disposable cash, and they don't mind spending it. The general concensus seems to be that the spring event next month in Florida is going to be a much better show to attend, given the expected restrictions in Wisconsin. Unless something causes those restrictions to be lifted, I'll be spending my money in Florida, not Wisconsin this year.

April event in FL, that is related to a bigger summer event in WI. This is an airline forum. I’m pretty sure we all know what two events you are referring to. Honest question, why not say the names? I’m generally curious, not trying to be that person.

It is an airline forum, but the percentage of GA folks is rather small, I believe. Not everyone would know what any of it means.

maybe they just want to get into the sun to have some fun

FlyingElvii wrote:

IdlewildJFK wrote:

FlyingElvii wrote:

The Northeast, especially New York, is going to be hard hit again this summer. No conferences, no large events, no meetings, means no reason to go TO New York.

I attend a very large event in Northern Wisconsin every year. Huge economic boost for the area, hundreds of thousands of mostly upper income folks with disposable cash, and they don't mind spending it. The general concensus seems to be that the spring event next month in Florida is going to be a much better show to attend, given the expected restrictions in Wisconsin. Unless something causes those restrictions to be lifted, I'll be spending my money in Florida, not Wisconsin this year.

April event in FL, that is related to a bigger summer event in WI. This is an airline forum. I’m pretty sure we all know what two events you are referring to. Honest question, why not say the names? I’m generally curious, not trying to be that person.

It is an airline forum, but the percentage of GA folks is rather small, I believe. Not everyone would know what any of it means.

Fair enough. I can see that.

Wednesday's TSA check point number was 1,278,113, 10% higher then last week and 59% of the 2019 same day. Considering that the last Wednesday in February was only 802,230 that is strong growth. During the month of March there were only 5 days less then 1 million, and two of those were in the high 900,000s.

When you see airport parking lots closed (long term & short term) due to no space multiple times. In addition to employee lots being near full, you know this is a sign.
I can't speak for NY. But I think UA is fairing better because the restrictions in NJ have not been as strict as NY. At least they opened sooner, allow more gathering, did not require quarantine, etc.

Cedar

Cedar wrote:

When you see airport parking lots closed (long term & short term) due to no space multiple times. In addition to employee lots being near full, you know this is a sign.
I can't speak for NY. But I think UA is fairing better because the restrictions in NJ have not been as strict as NY. At least they opened sooner, allow more gathering, did not require quarantine, etc.

Cedar

New York quarantine ends today

32andBelow wrote:

Cedar wrote:

When you see airport parking lots closed (long term & short term) due to no space multiple times. In addition to employee lots being near full, you know this is a sign.
I can't speak for NY. But I think UA is fairing better because the restrictions in NJ have not been as strict as NY. At least they opened sooner, allow more gathering, did not require quarantine, etc.

Cedar

New York quarantine ends today

Good news!

Cedar

Hawaii domestic now at 75-80% of 2019 levels, even greater than that excluding Kauai which is still restricted


http://dbedt.hawaii.gov/visitor/dailypax-dashboard/

Midwestindy wrote:

https://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/economic ... -Mar21.pdf

NEW RECORD: April 1 TSA check point number was 1,562,139, 8% higher then last week and 64% of the 2019 same day. The highest number since March 13, 2020.

The CDC has just this morning released guidance that fully vaccinated travelers CAN travel with “low risk” to themselves. I imagine this guidance will likely jump start a little more business travel, and might get some of the vaccinated people who remain hesitant out to travel.

Big big number here we go. I’m boarding the night train to 2,000,000

RicFlyer wrote:

NEW RECORD: April 1 TSA check point number was 1,562,139, 8% higher then last week and 64% of the 2019 same day. The highest number since March 13, 2020.

Wasn’t Sunday the record?

3/28/21 was 1,574,228.

32andBelow wrote:

FlyingElvii wrote:

IdlewildJFK wrote:

April event in FL, that is related to a bigger summer event in WI. This is an airline forum. I’m pretty sure we all know what two events you are referring to. Honest question, why not say the names? I’m generally curious, not trying to be that person.

It is an airline forum, but the percentage of GA folks is rather small, I believe. Not everyone would know what any of it means.

maybe they just want to get into the sun to have some fun

Spring Break for Pilots....

Airlines for America published an industry update yesterday. Under their Bull Case scenario passenger volumes recover in 2023. Under the Bear scenario it's still down 15% in full-year 2024, and those are passenger counts, not revenues.

See slide #5

https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

MIflyer12 wrote:

Airlines for America published an industry update yesterday. Under their Bull Case scenario passenger volumes recover in 2023. Under the Bear scenario it's still down 15% in full-year 2024, and those are passenger counts, not revenues.

See slide #5

https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

There is no way to know when it will recover. I doubt these guys would have said we’d be enplaining 1.5M this week

32andBelow wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

Airlines for America published an industry update yesterday. Under their Bull Case scenario passenger volumes recover in 2023. Under the Bear scenario it's still down 15% in full-year 2024, and those are passenger counts, not revenues.

See slide #5

https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

There is no way to know when it will recover. I doubt these guys would have said we’d be enplaining 1.5M this week

Everything is a giant guess right now. CDC just came out today and said fully vaccinated people can travel. Thats going to help with the corporate side of travel.

32andBelow wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

Airlines for America published an industry update yesterday. Under their Bull Case scenario passenger volumes recover in 2023. Under the Bear scenario it's still down 15% in full-year 2024, and those are passenger counts, not revenues.

See slide #5

https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

There is no way to know when it will recover. I doubt these guys would have said we’d be enplaining 1.5M this week

You're acting like it is wholly unexpected but most industry projections said that summer 2021 domestic leisure would be back to normal as soon as the timelines on the vaccines became clear (and doubly so when efficacy was reported to be high). It's essentially a postulate at this point that domestic leisure/VFR will overshoot relative to 2019 this summer.

We may get back to "normal" for that segment a month earlier than expected (late April instead of May). The big question has always been how much business travel has been permanently disrupted and how long will international borders take to open as those two segments are definitely going to be slower to recover.

ethernal wrote:

32andBelow wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

Airlines for America published an industry update yesterday. Under their Bull Case scenario passenger volumes recover in 2023. Under the Bear scenario it's still down 15% in full-year 2024, and those are passenger counts, not revenues.

See slide #5

https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

There is no way to know when it will recover. I doubt these guys would have said we’d be enplaining 1.5M this week

You're acting like it is wholly unexpected but most industry projections said that summer 2021 domestic leisure would be back to normal as soon as the timelines on the vaccines became clear (and doubly so when efficacy was reported to be high). It's essentially a postulate at this point that domestic leisure/VFR will overshoot relative to 2019 this summer.

We may get back to "normal" for that segment a month earlier than expected (late April instead of May). The big question has always been how much business travel has been permanently disrupted and how long will international borders take to open as those two segments are definitely going to be slower to recover.

LAXdude1023 wrote:

32andBelow wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

Airlines for America published an industry update yesterday. Under their Bull Case scenario passenger volumes recover in 2023. Under the Bear scenario it's still down 15% in full-year 2024, and those are passenger counts, not revenues.

See slide #5

https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact ... -updates/#

There is no way to know when it will recover. I doubt these guys would have said we’d be enplaining 1.5M this week

Everything is a giant guess right now. CDC just came out today and said fully vaccinated people can travel. Thats going to help with the corporate side of travel.

People......that chart he is referencing is not up-to-date.

That slide # that he is referencing has not been updated in months (was made back in 2020), I check the page every day, only a few slides in the deck are updated regularly and I post them on this thread.

The slide deck says "updated" because they update the slide with TSA screenings daily. If you need proof this is an article from months ago referencing that projection:
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/airli ... d-recovery

Nothing new to see here....

IdlewildJFK wrote:

RicFlyer wrote:

NEW RECORD: April 1 TSA check point number was 1,562,139, 8% higher then last week and 64% of the 2019 same day. The highest number since March 13, 2020.

Wasn’t Sunday the record?

3/28/21 was 1,574,228.

Today will most likely be the record, this upcoming Sunday would be, but it is impacted by Easter.

IdlewildJFK wrote:

RicFlyer wrote:

NEW RECORD: April 1 TSA check point number was 1,562,139, 8% higher then last week and 64% of the 2019 same day. The highest number since March 13, 2020.

Wasn’t Sunday the record?

3/28/21 was 1,574,228.

OOPS you are correct.

Demand is definitely increasing at MSY. Today was the first day since before the pandemic that I've seen the economy garage in use. The long term garage is currently 88% full at this hour and was over 90% full earlier this morning, so it was finally necessary to reopen the other garage. The economy garage is now 26% full, and I have no doubt that will go even higher tomorrow. Even the very expensive short term garage is 61% full. Hopefully, it will be necessary to reopen the surface lot that has been closed to the public for the past year sooner rather than later. That lot is currently used for employee parking. https://flymsy.com/parking/

NEW RECORD: April 2 TSA check point number was 1,580,785, 3% higher then last week and 64% of the 2019 same day. The highest number since March 13, 2020

RicFlyer wrote:

NEW RECORD: April 2 TSA check point number was 1,580,785, 3% higher then last week and 64% of the 2019 same day. The highest number since March 13, 2020

Guys you need to be careful when you compare 2021 to 2019 numbers.

This week is Easter week.

Easter wasn’t this week in 2019.
l


Meaning before we go too crazy, this holiday week should be compared with April 14 through the 21st 2019.

jfklganyc wrote:

RicFlyer wrote:

NEW RECORD: April 2 TSA check point number was 1,580,785, 3% higher then last week and 64% of the 2019 same day. The highest number since March 13, 2020

Guys you need to be careful when you compare 2021 to 2019 numbers.

This week is Easter week.

Easter wasn’t this week in 2019.

Meaning before we go too crazy, this holiday week should be compared with April 14 through the 21st 2019.

This week currently being compared against was busier than Easter week 2019, since Easter was so late in 2019.

Easter week is normally an easier comp, since the Easter itself is a low travel day.

I have no idea if this really indicates much but JFK parking garages are really showing a big increase.

Terminal 5 is 81% full while Terminal 4 is 75% full. Long term and Terminal 8 are around 30-40% full.

Still good progress it seems

Leisure bookings have begun to ease off, as we are exiting peak booking season. Family bookings should start to pick up again towards the end of the month.





https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/repor ... page/T4qIB

Pretty expected. I’m really hoping some kind of business travel gets going here soon. Just seems like it’s still basically zero. There’s a LOT of capacity being thrown in the next few months, here’s hoping the strong rebound can continue, albeit at a smaller rate.

MaxTrimm wrote:

Pretty expected. I’m really hoping some kind of business travel gets going here soon. Just seems like it’s still basically zero. There’s a LOT of capacity being thrown in the next few months, here’s hoping the strong rebound can continue, albeit at a smaller rate.

Need a big company to make the first news.

32andBelow wrote:

MaxTrimm wrote:

Pretty expected. I’m really hoping some kind of business travel gets going here soon. Just seems like it’s still basically zero. There’s a LOT of capacity being thrown in the next few months, here’s hoping the strong rebound can continue, albeit at a smaller rate.

Need a big company to make the first news.

Agreed. It only takes one to bring the rest along

AA just switched ORDANC to 787. ANC looks to be a top leisure spot this summer despite
the cruise cancels

32andBelow wrote:

AA just switched ORDANC to 787. ANC looks to be a top leisure spot this summer despite
the cruise cancels

Alaska bookings are up big, not sure where it ranks them though


https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/repor ... page/P9rAC

Slow crawl upwards for Corporate bookings, non-corporate retreating a bit (as mentioned a few posts up), but not unexpected given the time of year & the recent increase in prices.


https://www2.arccorp.com/about-us/newsr ... il-4-2021/

Corporate travel isn't really going to start unlocking much until June-ish, but realistically September.
Most big companies have been putting out their "return to office / next normal" roadmaps over the past couple weeks, but there really is no urgency to move ahead into next phases until a combination for the following:

1) Majority of those wanting to get a vaccine, have been able to get a vaccine
2) Getting through the rest of the K-12 school calendar year with whatever childcare arrangements needed for virtual/hybrid/in-person learning
3) Since 1 & 2, aren't really going to be done until June, then it doesn't really make sense to try to get more people back into offices in July (with peak vacation/school break season)

Its almost as if corporate is going to transition into soft restart mode in June, but really aiming to get to the new normalcy in September timeframe.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

Corporate travel isn't really going to start unlocking much until June-ish, but realistically September.
Most big companies have been putting out their "return to office / next normal" roadmaps over the past couple weeks, but there really is no urgency to move ahead into next phases until a combination for the following:

1) Majority of those wanting to get a vaccine, have been able to get a vaccine
2) Getting through the rest of the K-12 school calendar year with whatever childcare arrangements needed for virtual/hybrid/in-person learning
3) Since 1 & 2, aren't really going to be done until June, then it doesn't really make sense to try to get more people back into offices in July (with peak vacation/school break season)

Its almost as if corporate is going to transition into soft restart mode in June, but really aiming to get to the new normalcy in September timeframe.

I tend to agree with this. Most corporate travel (and yes, most of it will resume) likely will start back up in earnest after summer.

Will there be a ramp up through the summer as big businesses might be sending IT and install people around to get everything back up and running?

No....because everything is already up and running, and all these systems are needed to be running for everyone working remotely and has been running in the virtual environment. Whatever is needed to be done is already really going on and there are people traveling but at <20% of normal.

Small and/or privately held businesses are already back to some amount of travel and has less of the corporate bureaucracy / infrastructure / risk-management issues that you see with the big corporate travel buyers.

Its a combination of regional issues and practicality. Like I said, there will gradual easing / increase in corporate travel over the summer as more of those are vaccinated and there is some travel that needs to be done or has been deferred now for 12-15 months.

Bread-and-butter consultants / professional services, large meetings, conferences, meetings in other offices / facilites, is not going to restart really until after summer.

MaxTrimm wrote:

Pretty expected. I’m really hoping some kind of business travel gets going here soon. Just seems like it’s still basically zero.

I've shared this many times in this thread but I work with some very large Fortune 100 companies. A friend said "it takes an act of god to get air travel approved by corporate." Interestingly, I can fly to visit him, but he can't to visit me.

My company is (and always has) approved air travel. We've had little bits of it throughout the pandemic, but it's slowly picking up now. Nothing like we used to and trade shows are starting to be confirmed. How attendance will be remains to be seen...

Corporate travel will be slow and difficult to return. Remember, companies (and CFOs) have now had two budget years with essentially zero travel spend. The inertia of reflexively handing millions to airlines has ended, and travel justification thresholds will be higher than ever.