FlyingElvii wrote:tphuang wrote:One thing to keep in mind is that things can change really fast in COVID. I remember back in early March, New York went from life going on like normal to nothing open in the space of a week. And I just saw home as cases and positive rate going up everyday.
That looks to be what's happening right now in Texas, Florida and Arizona and there is no mandatory mask still. Taking a look here
Texas at over 5000 cases today and Florida had been over 3000 for several days and Arizona at over 2000 for several days. Still very low death per 1 million, which would indicate very few people have been infected up to this point so things can spread really quickly. South Carolina is also very high for its population size.
Looking at rt.live now, https://rt.live/. States with high air travel demand and high rate of growth include the same 4 states + Nevada. Nevada is very concerning because it had been reducing for a while and then is now reaching R=1.4 and this is before the stirp opened again.
In 2 weeks, we could be seeing Texas with over 10,000 cases a day, Florida with close to 10000 cases a day, Arizona with 5000 cases a day and Nevada with 2000 cases a day. Once the narrative switches on these states, air demand will drop even if they don't shutdown bars and restaurants. And the thing is everyone has been adding to these states.
Using the same logic on opposite end, the 5 state hit the hardest so far (by death per 1 million) have been NY/NJ/CT/MA/RI with DC after that. Going by rt.live, these are also the states that now have really crushed the new case count. Again, it takes time for narrative to change. The business demand in the northeastern states are still minimal, but I would say that there is a lot of pentup leisure travel demand here. Most people still haven't used much of their vacation and now things are finally less dire outside.
By the time airlines actually start to fly their more aggressive July schedule, are they going to find a bunch of no-shows to Florida, Texas and Arizona. Instead, people will end up flying to Northeast for leisure.
This is kind of a false measure.
Rising cases reflects rising testing. Hospitalizations is the number you should be following.
For instance, In late March, early April, Indiana statewide was averaging 200-300 tests per day, while the hospital census shows 1600+ in hospitals.
Now they are testing 7-10,000 a DAY in Indiana, with around 700 in hospitals. It is when that number goes up, that closing considerations start.
That does not take into account the massive resources required to treat this. An acquaintance has been hospitalized since April 18th, almost all of it in ICU. He just went back on a vent yesterday. The day before they were talking about moving him to a rehab center. Muni bus driver....
This bug is nasty, don’t discount it, but don’t get lost in the data. Or the political bs....
I agree that hospitalization is the one we should be focusing on. We are seeing surge in hospitalization in FL/TX/AZ whereas the Northeastern states have had a significant decline in the past few weeks. Right now in New York, they are doing 60k test a day and only getting 1% positivity rate, which means they are catching most of the new cases.
My point is that due to the shift in risk level across the regions, travel pattern will also change. It seems like people are tired of staying at home and want to go vacationing somewhere. The question is where they are going. Florida, Arizona, South Carolina and Texas saw the demand come back first. Once this news gets into people's heads (and there is a lag), I think demand to these areas will drop. And that will be a problem for the LCCs that put their entire game plan into Florida for summer season.