tphuang wrote:32andBelow wrote:tphuang wrote:It's been just about 4 days since the tr-state quarantine news came out, so not all of last week would've been equally affected.
I think a lot of the bookings have been really up close. ULCCs added a bunch of capacities with the expectations that they will be able to continue to get those planes filled with close-in booking by using highly discounted fares. Since we are a few days out from July 4th, one would've otherwise expected a lot of last minute holiday bookings which clearly hasn't happened.
Domestic capacity almost doubled in July from June with a huge dump into Florida and LAS. There is going to be a lot of empty planes going into Florida if booking doesn't dramatically increase. Also, there is the question of what kind of revenue these low fares are generating. Right now, seeing $24 fares on EWR-MCO for most of the week of July 6th to 11th.
What do you mean clearly it hasn’t happened? It’s not 1jul yet. So what data are your referencing.
sorry, midwestindy posted a chart earlier that looks to be deleted. It showed the booking basically about the same for the past 3 weeks. I'm saying that given all the increased capacity and heavy discounting, I would've expected booking trend to have significantly improve had the news this past week not come out.
If ULCCs are getting most of their bookings 1 or 2 weeks out and their capacity is going up 50 to 100% in July (For example, NK up to 70+% in early July from 10% in early June), then they should be seeing a lot of increased bookings now.
Lol, yeah apparently I need to post the links every time even though they are all cited at the beginning of thread:
https://www2.arccorp.com/articles-trend ... _Resources
I don't disagree that we would be seeing higher bookings without the increases in cases. However with that in mind, many people thought we would see massive (or at least sizable) dropoffs in overall bookings as a result, which hasn't happened yet.
The close in bookings is less of an issue for July, as a significant portion of July is already booked in. There were was a major spike in July bookings in early March, with no-change fees many people moved earlier vacations to later in the summer, and in addition Summer Bookings didn't drop off to nearly the level of near in bookings during the worst of the April months.
Plus remember that while G4, NK, and F9 may be running large(relatively) schedules, they overall make up a small portion of overall US capacity.