Airliners.net

Silver1SWA wrote:

acavpics wrote:

Expect booking trends to go up now that multiple vaccines have been shown to have promising early trial results. Not to mention that two of them may be released this fall if proven effective and successful.

Vaccine before November? Rushed, don’t trust, stay home!

Vaccine after November? Back to normal!

Heh...

Nawww

Silver1SWA wrote:

acavpics wrote:

Expect booking trends to go up now that multiple vaccines have been shown to have promising early trial results. Not to mention that two of them may be released this fall if proven effective and successful.

Vaccine before November? Rushed, don’t trust, stay home!

Vaccine after November? Back to normal!

Heh...

Nawwww

As I mentioned earlier in the week, close-in bookings are climbing back to late June levels, hence the reason there have been no July schedule cuts:



Close-in family bookings are at highest levels since mid March.

https://www.sojern.com/covid-19-insights-us#report

Midwestindy wrote:

Overall booking decreases have stalled, & bookings appear to be shifting to Mountain West states. We'll likely see growth this week as well, as coronavirus will likely feature less prominently in the news.

DEN:


COS:


NYC(LGA/JFK) still struggling:


NYC(EWR) doing better:

https://www.sojern.com/covid-19-insights#report

Update:
Denver

Chicago

New York/Newark

Midwestindy wrote:

As I mentioned earlier in the week, close-in bookings are climbing back to late June levels, hence the reason there have been no July schedule cuts:

Actually, there are some going on right now in some of the weaker markets. AA has started chopping some NYC and LAX flights starting next week (from 28 July onwards already) - JFK-MIA going from about 5x to 2x a day; JFK-LAX going from 7x to 5x a day; LGA-MIA going from 8x to 4x a day; LGA-MCO/STL/BNA dropped, LGA-BOS reductions with no flights mid-week, LAX-BOS dropped, etc). At first I thought these were all August cuts but apparently they extended them into the last week of July as well. They made the cuts in the last few days by zero-ing out these flights starting some time next week - these are some really close-in cancellations.

The TSA numbers are still hovering around the 21 % to 27 % level of last year compared to same week this year:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1443313&start=400#p22338523

2nd2none wrote:

The TSA numbers are still hovering around the 21 % to 27 % level of last year compared to same week this year:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1443313&start=400#p22338523

Def hit a stall. But not the decrease others predicted. If the data here is right we might break through that 750k barrier the next week or two.

Unlike most markets in the world, the numbers from the US and TSA are extremely important, it is the only market wide survey of what is going on, on daily basis, since all other figures and numbers are told by airports, airlines and whoever tries to talk the situation they want it be told!

panamair wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

As I mentioned earlier in the week, close-in bookings are climbing back to late June levels, hence the reason there have been no July schedule cuts:

Actually, there are some going on right now in some of the weaker markets. AA has started chopping some NYC and LAX flights starting next week (from 28 July onwards already) - JFK-MIA going from about 5x to 2x a day; JFK-LAX going from 7x to 5x a day; LGA-MIA going from 8x to 4x a day; LGA-MCO/STL/BNA dropped, LGA-BOS reductions with no flights mid-week, LAX-BOS dropped, etc). At first I thought these were all August cuts but apparently they extended them into the last week of July as well. They made the cuts in the last few days by zero-ing out these flights starting some time next week - these are some really close-in cancellations.

Good catch, looks like mostly Northeast reductions (at least for late July)? From IND, I only saw ORD reduced

32andBelow wrote:

2nd2none wrote:

The TSA numbers are still hovering around the 21 % to 27 % level of last year compared to same week this year:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1443313&start=400#p22338523

Def hit a stall. But not the decrease others predicted. If the data here is right we might break through that 750k barrier the next week or two.

Nope it will decrease, not enough forward bookings. You need good close-in bookings + good bookings for 14+ days out.

Late June & July had a good amount of people booked in from earlier in the year, we won't have that for a while.

2nd2none wrote:

Unlike most markets in the world, the numbers from the US and TSA are extremely important, it is the only market wide survey of what is going on, on daily basis, since all other figures and numbers are told by airports, airlines and whoever tries to talk the situation they want it be told!

Literally posted data above on forward bookings as of yesterday. TSA numbers are good for telling what is happening now, but doesn't tell you what is going to happen in 2-3-4-5-6 weeks.

Midwestindy wrote:

panamair wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

As I mentioned earlier in the week, close-in bookings are climbing back to late June levels, hence the reason there have been no July schedule cuts:

Actually, there are some going on right now in some of the weaker markets. AA has started chopping some NYC and LAX flights starting next week (from 28 July onwards already) - JFK-MIA going from about 5x to 2x a day; JFK-LAX going from 7x to 5x a day; LGA-MIA going from 8x to 4x a day; LGA-MCO/STL/BNA dropped, LGA-BOS reductions with no flights mid-week, LAX-BOS dropped, etc). At first I thought these were all August cuts but apparently they extended them into the last week of July as well. They made the cuts in the last few days by zero-ing out these flights starting some time next week - these are some really close-in cancellations.

Good catch, looks like mostly Northeast reductions? From IND, I only saw ORD reduced

32andBelow wrote:

2nd2none wrote:

The TSA numbers are still hovering around the 21 % to 27 % level of last year compared to same week this year:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1443313&start=400#p22338523

Def hit a stall. But not the decrease others predicted. If the data here is right we might break through that 750k barrier the next week or two.

Nope it will decrease, not enough forward bookings. You need good close-in bookings + good bookings for 14+ days out.

Late June & July had a good amount of people booked in from earlier in the year, we won't have that for a while.

2nd2none wrote:

Unlike most markets in the world, the numbers from the US and TSA are extremely important, it is the only market wide survey of what is going on, on daily basis, since all other figures and numbers are told by airports, airlines and whoever tries to talk the situation they want it be told!

Literally posted data above on forward bookings as of yesterday. TSA numbers are good for telling what is happening now, but doesn't tell you what is going to happen in 2-3-4-5-6 weeks.

why wouldn’t their be august booking from earlier in the year?

Midwestindy:
Literally posted data above on forward bookings as of yesterday. TSA numbers are good for telling what is happening now, but doesn't tell you what is going to happen in 2-3-4-5-6 weeks.

I did not predict the future nor did TSA!

2nd2none wrote:

The TSA numbers are still hovering around the 21 % to 27 % level of last year compared to same week this year:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1443313&start=400#p22338523

And if you go day over day there is a mini trend over the last 3 weeks. Less heavy days in 2019 (<2.5MIL) are lower 20% range with heavier 2019 days (>2.6MIL) mid to upper 20% range. Not a stall as much as what might be approaching near future new norm levels. Getting to a consistent 30% will be an achievement.

It appears that Northeast booking got slammed with the COVID surge + quarantine order. It's quite possible midwest is still doing well. I'd like to see the revenue from these bookings, because the fares to leisure spot from northeast is ridiculous these days. So even if we get the same number of bookings, the yield has to be down.

From what I can see, last week JetBlue trimmed their capacity in August back down to the capacity planned for July originally. A lot of weakness not only to Florida, but also to Cali and shorthaul business markets nearby.

tphuang wrote:

It appears that Northeast booking got slammed with the COVID surge + quarantine order. It's quite possible midwest is still doing well. I'd like to see the revenue from these bookings, because the fares to leisure spot from northeast is ridiculous these days. So even if we get the same number of bookings, the yield has to be down.

From what I can see, last week JetBlue trimmed their capacity in August back down to the capacity planned for July originally. A lot of weakness not only to Florida, but also to Cali and shorthaul business markets nearby.

Yeah, this data is a bit behind, but yes Northeast(and large metros) are lagging national trends. Numbers will look a bit better after this weeks data is added.

Even with spikes Florida is leading in bookings, just not to the extend they were a couple months back.

https://www.kalibrilabs.com/industry-health

32andBelow wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

panamair wrote:

Actually, there are some going on right now in some of the weaker markets. AA has started chopping some NYC and LAX flights starting next week (from 28 July onwards already) - JFK-MIA going from about 5x to 2x a day; JFK-LAX going from 7x to 5x a day; LGA-MIA going from 8x to 4x a day; LGA-MCO/STL/BNA dropped, LGA-BOS reductions with no flights mid-week, LAX-BOS dropped, etc). At first I thought these were all August cuts but apparently they extended them into the last week of July as well. They made the cuts in the last few days by zero-ing out these flights starting some time next week - these are some really close-in cancellations.

Good catch, looks like mostly Northeast reductions? From IND, I only saw ORD reduced

32andBelow wrote:

Def hit a stall. But not the decrease others predicted. If the data here is right we might break through that 750k barrier the next week or two.

Nope it will decrease, not enough forward bookings. You need good close-in bookings + good bookings for 14+ days out.

Late June & July had a good amount of people booked in from earlier in the year, we won't have that for a while.

2nd2none wrote:

Unlike most markets in the world, the numbers from the US and TSA are extremely important, it is the only market wide survey of what is going on, on daily basis, since all other figures and numbers are told by airports, airlines and whoever tries to talk the situation they want it be told!

Literally posted data above on forward bookings as of yesterday. TSA numbers are good for telling what is happening now, but doesn't tell you what is going to happen in 2-3-4-5-6 weeks.

why wouldn’t their be august booking from earlier in the year?

Just normal booking patterns, domestic passengers aren't booking August travel in large numbers in Jan-March. People are booking Spring Break & some early summer.

Pretty sure WN didn't even extend its schedule past Aug 10 until mid-March

Most families don’t take summer vacations in August. June/July is for trips to Disney and national parks, and most people already have booked their vacations by now—I’ve never booked my family trip in July and taken it in August.

Without business travelers the number of people traveling is about to take a nosedive.

boilerla wrote:

Most families don’t take summer vacations in August.

They don’t? I wonder why.

I would always see busy airports in August. The only exception were around states that had early August start dates. For whatever reason kids go to school in Arizona in early August, so by the end of July, PHX would start to empty out on the land side of things and in the parking garages. Air side, it was busy until after Labor Day with all the connections.

FWIW, we’d always vacation in August when I was growing up. Perhaps my parents were on to something?

chrisair wrote:

boilerla wrote:

Most families don’t take summer vacations in August.

They don’t? I wonder why.

I would always see busy airports in August. The only exception were around states that had early August start dates. For whatever reason kids go to school in Arizona in early August, so by the end of July, PHX would start to empty out on the land side of things and in the parking garages. Air side, it was busy until after Labor Day with all the connections.

FWIW, we’d always vacation in August when I was growing up. Perhaps my parents were on to something?

I’ve always known tons of families taking trips the week before school. Some kids would even miss the first week.

32andBelow wrote:

chrisair wrote:

boilerla wrote:

Most families don’t take summer vacations in August.

I’ve always known tons of families taking trips the week before school. Some kids would even miss the first week.

It is more likely pounds of families this summer?

32andBelow wrote:

I’ve always known tons of families taking trips the week before school. Some kids would even miss the first week.

We used to take trips immediately prior to school but that was when school started after Labor Day.

Over the last couple decades schools have moved up start dates. Extracurricular activities for fall sports, band, etc would have already begun. In areas where school starts early most of August is full time school. I’ve hated this move because Labor Day was the symbolic end of summer. Now it’s just another long weekend. August vacations have been steadily declining as school systems adjusted their calendars. I’ve not been on an August vacation since.

Pretty safe to say with COVId August will not see many vacationers regardless of people’s past history.

Have any airlines reconfigured flight reservations with greater operational flexibility? i.e., your ticket will get you from LAX to JFK sometime between nine pm to Friday till noon Saturday. Airlines could juggle flights to further save money, texting passengers with accurate times 12-24 hours prior to flight.

boilerla wrote:

Most families don’t take summer vacations in August. June/July is for trips to Disney and national parks, and most people already have booked their vacations by now—I’ve never booked my family trip in July and taken it in August.

Without business travelers the number of people traveling is about to take a nosedive.

I think there might be regional differences in terms of this, for instance in the South schools start back up in August hence the drop in family travel. In the Northeast Summer camps end around the second week of August, and schools don't start again until the end of the second week of September. Many families in the Northeast plan their vacations for those between weeks. I like taking my family on vacation during those weeks as the crowds are usually smaller with many Southern states already back to school.

Growing up my Mom was a NYC High School teacher, later became a Principal, and we often went to Disney in August. I never remember my brother and I being bothered by the heat. When I became a dad and took my own family to Disney over Labor day weekend it was unbearably hot and humid. Got smacked with the humidity as soon as I stepped out of the airport. Ever since then we make our trips to Disney in April, absolutely best time to visit!

Booking trending back upwards, trend will likely hold this week

https://www2.arccorp.com/about-us/newsr ... y-26-2020/

In a normal year, there are a lot of factors that influence the typical seasonal demand cycle over the summer months. Yes, and some of that is driven regionally.

A lot of summer travel is tied to school calendars. Schools in the south and southeast tend to end the school year much earlier and start the new school year much earlier by mid-August. The Upper Midwest and Northeast, states like MI, OH, PA, NY, NJ, CT, etc. tend to end their school year in mid-June and restart either the week before or after Labor Day. As others have said, over the past 10-20 years they have moved up the start date increasily prior to Labor Day, and extracuriculars and school sports start their practices several weeks prior. Thus what you get is as said, there is a big push to get big family vacations in after school gets out in late-June, in July, and early August. The first or second week of August are the last big summer vacation weeks since there is a brief 1-2 week period between all the camps, summer sports leagues wrap-up, and school activities ramp-up. Not as applicable if you have elementary-school aged children, but this really factors into middle & high school student. Not to mention colleges and universities a lot start in late-August.

Typically, the busiest travel days with peak number of passengers traveling in the calendar year fall on Fridays in late-July and early-August. You have peak leisure/VFR combined with healthy business travel. Business travel declines significantly for the first 2 weeks of July around 4th of July due to everyone on holidays, vacations, but picks back up again by late-July into August.

Not to mention international, and August is peak month for inbound TATL with August being a big vacation month in Europe.

This year, who knows. September leisure travel tends to dominated in most years but the child-free, empty-nester, and senior/retiree crowd. Many of the retiree/senior crowd are too scared to fly now.
There is no sign of life of any recovery in business travel on the horizon.
Travel to mountain west n

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

There is no sign of life of any recovery in business travel on the horizon.

There are many anecdotal examples that business travel is further off than many would like to admit. You see posts about businesses losing out if they don’t start traveling or they will somehow lose to their competition if they continue to use video for customer contact. These notions are ridiculous. Companies are making long term plans to eliminate, not temporarily, permanently, eliminate many aspects of business travel. My wife’s Fortune 500 company has permanently ceased 2/3rds of their business travel. Sales have moved inside and guess what? Their sales are up and margins are up 4%. They will not now, nor ever, return to the travel expense they previously endured. They can’t be the only example.

Bottom line, those thinking that business travel will somehow rebound to pre virus levels have little evidence to support that thinking. To the contrary, evidence leans towards permanent restriction in business travel just like companies are slicing their real estate footprint because employees are doing well working from home. This is a monster generational event. I know many are tied to the airlines industry being prosperous but we’re 5 months in with virtually no evidence business travel is critical. The longer this goes on the more companies realize high cost business travel is an expense not warranted by the investment.

I am very concerned about many fundamental shifts in society that are coming out of this event that are going to flip the global economy on its side for many years to come.

The fail out on commercial real estate, airlines, hotels, retail, sports, colleges, public education, and all the supporting industries is going to be insane.

I fear we are also facing a massive amount of white Collar layoffs in the next 6 months. No way companies are going to keep paying all these middle management types 6 figure salaries to work from home in non operational roles.

I work for a firm that is a top 5-10 in business travel spend and there are no signs of us doing any business travel really for the remainder of 2020. At this rate it may be sometime next spring or summer.

I don’t know things become more and more bleak every week.

If you want to hear stress talk to any parents or teachers. It’s bad.

Mass tourism and travel is dead until further notice. I honestly think 2021 is going to be a very bad year for the industry at this rate.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

I work for a firm that is a top 5-10 in business travel spend and there are no signs of us doing any business travel really for the remainder of 2020. At this rate it may be sometime next spring or summer.

I don’t know things become more and more bleak every week.

If you want to hear stress talk to any parents or teachers. It’s bad.

Mass tourism and travel is dead until further notice. I honestly think 2021 is going to be a very bad year for the industry at this rate.

Well put. What I think is that there are those here (and particularly on FT) that have spent years flying around in style on the Company dime and now this is coming to an end, or at least partially. Now they want to pretend it's all coming back magically tomorrow. Travel budgets are going to be slashed to the bone and people are going to be told to make "virtual work." Plain and simple.

The bean counters are going to look at the cost of sending 3 people to Europe in J class (not to mention hotels, meals, ground transport) and the cost of a Zoom meeting and that's all she wrote. The suits won't give a damn about "the experience." I already see this in the consulting world. I've resigned myself to the fact that if I want to retain EXP or PP on AA I damn well be prepared to shell some coin out of my own pocket.

75driver wrote:

My wife’s Fortune 500 company has permanently ceased 2/3rds of their business travel. Sales have moved inside and guess what? Their sales are up and margins are up 4%. They will not now, nor ever, return to the travel expense they previously endured. They can’t be the only example.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

I fear we are also facing a massive amount of white Collar layoffs in the next 6 months. No way companies are going to keep paying all these middle management types 6 figure salaries to work from home in non operational roles.

You can't judge long-term productivity on the basis of a few anecdotes and four months of observation. Real economists are smart enough not to do that even if execs focused on quarterly earnings and stock price are not.

I suspect - as put forward by DL's Bastian - that some meaningful fraction of business travel is not coming back. I wouldn't declare the whole sector of business travel permanently dead.

MIflyer12 wrote:

You can't judge long-term productivity on the basis of a few anecdotes and four months of observation. Real economists are smart enough not to do that even if execs focused on quarterly earnings and stock price are not.

I suspect - as put forward by DL's Bastian - that some meaningful fraction of business travel is not coming back. I wouldn't declare the whole sector of business travel permanently dead.

I agree. Near-term, yes business travel is dead. Longer-term, I think a lot of it will come back, but not completely. We could permanently lose 20-25% of business travel. If that's the case, it's not quite as gloom and doom as some say, but certainly will be painful for some air carriers. If 20-25% of business travel never returns, DL/UA/AA will have to refine their business models, but it's not the end of the world either.

And let's be real honest, some business travel was always a bit of a waste.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

I work for a firm that is a top 5-10 in business travel spend and there are no signs of us doing any business travel really for the remainder of 2020. At this rate it may be sometime next spring or summer.

I don’t know things become more and more bleak every week.

If you want to hear stress talk to any parents or teachers. It’s bad.

Mass tourism and travel is dead until further notice. I honestly think 2021 is going to be a very bad year for the industry at this rate.

If so, than at least all those arrogant bloggers pushing travel credit cards will go extinct as well. Good riddance.

Despite unemployment spiking massively and lots of people not being able to travel the provision of good and services has continued, suggesting a lot of what was being done was non productive work. A lot of people are employed to do work that does not need to be done. That might be the big lesson from this time. So kids go learn a useful skill that will always be needed.

FlyPNS1 wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

You can't judge long-term productivity on the basis of a few anecdotes and four months of observation. Real economists are smart enough not to do that even if execs focused on quarterly earnings and stock price are not.

I suspect - as put forward by DL's Bastian - that some meaningful fraction of business travel is not coming back. I wouldn't declare the whole sector of business travel permanently dead.

I agree. Near-term, yes business travel is dead. Longer-term, I think a lot of it will come back, but not completely. We could permanently lose 20-25% of business travel. If that's the case, it's not quite as gloom and doom as some say, but certainly will be painful for some air carriers. If 20-25% of business travel never returns, DL/UA/AA will have to refine their business models, but it's not the end of the world either.

And let's be real honest, some business travel was always a bit of a waste.

If we lose 20 to 25% business travel long term, which I think is quite possible, that will really hurt the big 3. I don't know if there will be same justification for running 10+ flights a day on these short haul shuttle routes that depend a lot on corporate bookings like EWR/LGA-ORD/BOS/DCA. If I have to work on a project with someone in London or LA or Tokyo, it might make sense to go there due to the time difference. I don't see the same need if that person is in Chicago or Boston. I can just use Zoom.

I suspect leisure travel in North America will recover to pre-COVID level by next summer in volume, but probably not in yield.

If business travel takes a 25% spill for any material time that is a serious problem for the US legacy airlines. Airlines operate on very thin margins and that level of loss of higher Y fares and premium cabin fares would spell bankruptcy at least for the weakest, namely AA. Not to mention even in the best of times AA was deriving the bulk of it's income from cc revenue. That is going to also take a hit.

High unemployment without a generous unemployment compensation kicker from the Fed spells big trouble for the ULCCs. The potential disaster is looming. Maybe not, but I'd wouldn't bet on things smoothing over. Is the old saying goes "you ain't seen nothing yet."

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

I work for a firm that is a top 5-10 in business travel spend and there are no signs of us doing any business travel really for the remainder of 2020. At this rate it may be sometime next spring or summer.

Same here, except I don't work for a top 10 (or even 1,000) company. All our air travel is dead. One of my largest customers is a Fortune 100 company that had regional VPs traveling weekly. They're driving to all of their locations within a 12 hour radius. Any air travel has to be approved by corporate HR. I'm not even sure their fleet of jets is being used by the C team.

My company has opened up air travel for essential visits with C level approval. As of today, we have one air trip on the books company wide. My division does need to do hands on work at customers, so I expect us to start traveling again at some point.

What concerns me longer term is our sales team that usually flies to our remote customers. I would imagine that small towns with minimal service like TVC will be even worse in the coming years.

Just echoing here what others are posting. I work for a company in the Fortune 100 list that had a nine-figure annual travel budget, with a good chunk of that being for internal travel between our global offices. It was just announced that all offices will remain closed until next year at the earliest, and all corporate travel is banned indefinitely. I wouldn't expect a rebound in corporate travel until next year at the absolute earliest. Probably more like 2022 for a full recovery.

Miamiairport wrote:

High unemployment without a generous unemployment compensation kicker from the Fed spells big trouble for the ULCCs. The potential disaster is looming. Maybe not, but I'd wouldn't bet on things smoothing over. Is the old saying goes "you ain't seen nothing yet."

I agree. Many countries including the US are experiencing political turmoil. Even countries that have fared better than the US with covid and have started reopening their economies are struggling to “return to normal.” Some of these countries are also dealing with new outbreaks and spikes in covid cases. Comparatively, the US (which did not adequately deal with covid in a timely fashion) forced the economy to reopen and the government is financing industries to operate for demand that is no longer in existence. I’m not an economist, but the volatile stock market is evidence of how unstable and unpredictable the economic recovery in the US will be. In most US states (regardless of local covid safety laws such as requiring mask usage), there are many businesses that have shut down. Parking lots are empty or not as busy as they were pre-covid. Businesses are operating on reduced schedules with skeletal staffing. And this is just today that we are talking about. I don’t think the US has seen the fallout from the economic impact of covid yet. The “fall” is still happening and we won’t know where the bottom is until covid is under control. As I mentioned, countries that addressed covid early on and with stricter measures than the US are still struggling economically after reopening. I think us Americans will be paying the price of this for a long time to come.

IATA predicts a yet-longer period to return to previous traffic levels.


PARIS/SYDNEY (Reuters) - Global airlines cut their coronavirus recovery forecast on Tuesday, saying it would take until 2024 - a year longer than previously expected - for passenger traffic to return to pre-crisis levels.

In an update on the pandemic’s crippling impact on air travel, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) cited slow virus containment in the United States and developing countries, and a weaker outlook for corporate travel.

Lingering travel barriers and new restrictions in some markets are also weighing on nearer-term prospects, IATA said, cutting its 2020 passenger numbers forecast to a 55% decline - sharper than the 46% drop predicted in April.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... 4T1OI?il=0

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

I work for a firm that is a top 5-10 in business travel spend and there are no signs of us doing any business travel really for the remainder of 2020. At this rate it may be sometime next spring or summer.

I don’t know things become more and more bleak every week.

If you want to hear stress talk to any parents or teachers. It’s bad.

Mass tourism and travel is dead until further notice. I honestly think 2021 is going to be a very bad year for the industry at this rate.

No doubt. I never believed the line that June’s figures were an indication of the air travel rebound. The financial impact Covid had on businesses meant that companies across the board slashed their discretionary budgets (of which travel is usually a material component) in order to offset lost business for the remainder of the year. While their is a small portion of leisure travelers that are ready to fly, the vast majority are still hesitant.

Agreed on 2021 too. While there appears to be good progress on a vaccine, it will take months to ramp up, distribute, and administer the vaccine.

TSA checkpoint travel numbers for 2020 and 2019

July 30 2020:

718,310 (2020)

2,742,882 (2019)

26.19 %

0,14 percentage point higher than Thursday last week.

I suppose the one bit of good news for the airlines is that the passenger numbers aren't going backwards. With the spike in cases all over the country and new rounds of quarantine orders it would have been easy to see demand decrease but it has stayed flat. We aren't on a trajectory toward the April lows. I also suspect the summer travel season will be stretched into the fall as work from home and online schooling makes it easier to get away for a little while as long as you have a laptop and internet connection.

Alias1024 wrote:

I suppose the one bit of good news for the airlines is that the passenger numbers aren't going backwards. With the spike in cases all over the country and new rounds of quarantine orders it would have been easy to see demand decrease but it has stayed flat. We aren't on a trajectory toward the April lows. I also suspect the summer travel season will be stretched into the fall as work from home and online schooling makes it easier to get away for a little while as long as you have a laptop and internet connection.

Yes but airlines are cutting flights again for August and September and seeing cancellations rise so I suspect these numbers are going to start to fall soon. As the economy implodes fewer people are going to travel even if COVID 19 lets up. And I see COVID 19 being problematic for awhile to come.

Miamiairport wrote:

Alias1024 wrote:

I suppose the one bit of good news for the airlines is that the passenger numbers aren't going backwards. With the spike in cases all over the country and new rounds of quarantine orders it would have been easy to see demand decrease but it has stayed flat. We aren't on a trajectory toward the April lows. I also suspect the summer travel season will be stretched into the fall as work from home and online schooling makes it easier to get away for a little while as long as you have a laptop and internet connection.

Yes but airlines are cutting flights again for August and September and seeing cancellations rise so I suspect these numbers are going to start to fall soon. As the economy implodes fewer people are going to travel even if COVID 19 lets up. And I see COVID 19 being problematic for awhile to come.

A lot of the cuts are cut previously planned increases

To put things in perspective, according to the NBTA (National Business Travel Association), business travel spend fell a mere 8.8% during the 2008-2009 recession and we saw how that totally devastated U.S. airlines.

Something like 20-25% reduction would seriously put into question the existing business model.

In 2018, business, convention and incentive travel represented 12% of U.S. passengers, but 38% of domestic passenger revenue, and near 50% of international flight revenues.

Without solid corporate travel revenue, the ability to sustain huge portions of US3 networks will be in serious jeopardy.

I think # of bookings will continue to increase slowly for all August, because carriers added capacity and are massively discounting fares to get people to book. Sep/Oct will probably be down like every year. The next possible increase will be for holiday season. I think once January/February come around, we will have more optimism and more people booking a couple of months ahead for spring break and early summer. Nothing more depressing than being locked up in cold weather at home with nowhere to go and a lot of unused vacation time.

tphuang wrote:

Nothing more depressing than being locked up in cold weather at home with nowhere to go and a lot of unused vacation time.

No nothing "unused vacation time" come January 1st.
I know of several businesses that have a "use it or lose it" policy when it comes to PTO. And it ain't gonna be changed!

Dieuwer wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Nothing more depressing than being locked up in cold weather at home with nowhere to go and a lot of unused vacation time.

No nothing "unused vacation time" come January 1st.
I know of several businesses that have a "use it or lose it" policy when it comes to PTO. And it ain't gonna be changed!

That's assuming one has a job. From what I see by the end of the year a lot of people will have forgotten what PTO was but they will be very familiar with the terror of unemployment and a bad job market. I'm in tech and this second round has stopped any new business in it's track. Companies aren't bringing people in for projects and they are slashing Cap Ex. I might easily be one of the Christmas Time unfortunates.

Miamiairport wrote:

Dieuwer wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Nothing more depressing than being locked up in cold weather at home with nowhere to go and a lot of unused vacation time.

No nothing "unused vacation time" come January 1st.
I know of several businesses that have a "use it or lose it" policy when it comes to PTO. And it ain't gonna be changed!

That's assuming one has a job. From what I see by the end of the year a lot of people will have forgotten what PTO was but they will be very familiar with the terror of unemployment and a bad job market. I'm in tech and this second round has stopped any new business in it's track. Companies aren't bringing people in for projects and they are slashing Cap Ex. I might easily be one of the Christmas Time unfortunates.

Yup. Great Depression 2.0.

32andBelow wrote:

Miamiairport wrote:

Alias1024 wrote:

I suppose the one bit of good news for the airlines is that the passenger numbers aren't going backwards. With the spike in cases all over the country and new rounds of quarantine orders it would have been easy to see demand decrease but it has stayed flat. We aren't on a trajectory toward the April lows. I also suspect the summer travel season will be stretched into the fall as work from home and online schooling makes it easier to get away for a little while as long as you have a laptop and internet connection.

Yes but airlines are cutting flights again for August and September and seeing cancellations rise so I suspect these numbers are going to start to fall soon. As the economy implodes fewer people are going to travel even if COVID 19 lets up. And I see COVID 19 being problematic for awhile to come.

A lot of the cuts are cut previously planned increases

I have a feeling people are going to heavily overanalyze September capacity cuts and September TSA screenings. No one should be expecting #'s to increase or even be flat from peak summer travel to one of the slowest leisure months of the year.

Miamiairport wrote:

Dieuwer wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Nothing more depressing than being locked up in cold weather at home with nowhere to go and a lot of unused vacation time.

No nothing "unused vacation time" come January 1st.
I know of several businesses that have a "use it or lose it" policy when it comes to PTO. And it ain't gonna be changed!

That's assuming one has a job. From what I see by the end of the year a lot of people will have forgotten what PTO was but they will be very familiar with the terror of unemployment and a bad job market. I'm in tech and this second round has stopped any new business in it's track. Companies aren't bringing people in for projects and they are slashing Cap Ex. I might easily be one of the Christmas Time unfortunates.

Why do all your posts revolve around unemployment?

A lot of the "cuts" for August and September, aren't actually are reduction month over month, from July, but instead or a rollback of planned capacity increases.

Regarding leisure/VFR, I'm starting to get the sense there are really two camps of people.
There are those that are comfortable traveling in the pandemic-era, and those that will absolutely not travel by air until we get the "all-clear" or a "vaccine" solves the whole thing.
I think you can start to get some momentum and repeat travel out of the first group. The second group has already deemed air travel is extremely unsafe and risky (yet they will go to crowded indoor restaurants and big box stores) It it what it is.

Midwestindy wrote:

I have a feeling people are going to heavily overanalyze September capacity cuts and September TSA screenings. No one should be expecting #'s to increase or even be flat from peak summer travel to one of the slowest leisure months of the year.

People have been heavily analyzing every tick up or down on the TSA numbers since April. Remember the "OH WE'RE ON PACE FOR 1M PEOPLE IN A WEEK" or the "WE'RE SMASHING NUMBERS! WOOHOO! 25% GROWTH EVERY WEEK. GO BABY GO" posts?

Midwestindy wrote:

Why do all your posts revolve around unemployment?

Perhaps they see something with their company/industry that you don't? People are afraid of losing their jobs.

chrisair wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

I have a feeling people are going to heavily overanalyze September capacity cuts and September TSA screenings. No one should be expecting #'s to increase or even be flat from peak summer travel to one of the slowest leisure months of the year.

People have been heavily analyzing every tick up or down on the TSA numbers since April. Remember the "OH WE'RE ON PACE FOR 1M PEOPLE IN A WEEK" or the "WE'RE SMASHING NUMBERS! WOOHOO! 25% GROWTH EVERY WEEK. GO BABY GO" posts?

Midwestindy wrote:

Why do all your posts revolve around unemployment?

Perhaps they see something with their company/industry that you don't? People are afraid of losing their jobs.

Nothing will kill air traffic like high unemployment. I guess some people on this board weren't out in the workforce in 2008-2009. People forget the impact of unemployment has been blunted and the unemployment has weighed more on lower wage service workers. For now. In Florida there's tons of $12-$15 an hour service jobs. Those people fired have been getting $875 a week, a pay raise to do nothing. What's going to happen if they revert back to the state unemployment insurance of only $275 a week. BTW I'd bet money lots of those Y seats were filled with people with new found money and lots of time on their hands. Yes they should be socking money away but in the US?

Eventually this will start to hit the professional class. As service revenues dry up professional services are far less engaged. Cap Ex plummets. Far less consultants, techies, contract workers to fill the skies and spend money.