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ericm2031
Posts: 1380
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 8:46 am

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Sun Jun 07, 2020 7:12 pm

continental004 wrote:
Didn't SAN-SBP just begin?

I see this route coming back once hotels, etc. open for in-state tourism. In the meantime there's Amtrak.


It's just suspended. It's still in the schedule starting in October...they just keep pushing out the return
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5198
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Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Sun Jun 07, 2020 7:37 pm

No blame or disrespect to Enilria, but these days, you kind of have to take these with a grain of salt until it shows some stability because it changes from week to week.
 
lowfareair
Posts: 314
Joined: Fri Jun 17, 2016 4:40 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Sun Jun 07, 2020 8:08 pm

PHL-MCO is crazy for F9, especially as they are flying all A321s on the route or almost 1400 seats/day each way. I'm guessing AA will respond with a vengeance in the next couple weeks, but right now I think the AA nonstop seat count is about 10% lower over Christmas than F9s, looking at 12/26 as an example.
 
tphuang
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Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Sun Jun 07, 2020 8:20 pm

AA is really not at a position where it can blow a lot of money to exact vengeance. At this point, EWR/PHL look like they will be facing a whole lot of ULCC pressure. I can't imagine the current scheduled number of flights will all get flown on PHL-MCO.

Also the more I think about it, EWR-MYR with 3x daily from NK and 3x weekly from F9 is going to be flying very empty. As a comparison, ACK, a much more popular destination for New Yorkers, is only getting 1 middle seat capped E90 a day in July. PWM, another really popular destination, has no flight. A much larger market in CHS, is only seeing 2x middle seat blocked A320s a day in July.

Yet, MYR is getting 3x daily from EWR + 2x daily from LGA! I think some people inside NK HQs got a little too arrogant here.
 
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NWAESC
Posts: 1481
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2007 1:02 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Sun Jun 07, 2020 8:24 pm

kavok wrote:
I will be curious to see how far out in the schedule these stations get dropped for. As in, will it just be no flights in July on the schedule, or July to September? Or will it be like YOW where all flights are zeroed out through the winter? Obviously going forward anything could change, but I think the initial end date selected could provide some clues as to whether the drop is intended to be temporary or permanent.


I’m curious too. So far, CZM/MGA/YOW are listed as indefinite. The other domestic ones are through “at least September 30th.”
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
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jfklganyc
Posts: 5927
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Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Sun Jun 07, 2020 8:25 pm

I know I post a lot about this, but what the hell is AA doing in NY (forget JFK at this point let’s look at the whole region) and where do they go from here as we march towards recovery?

They are barely covering hubs at this point.
 
dcajet
Posts: 4654
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Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Sun Jun 07, 2020 8:25 pm

enilria wrote:

BA AUS-LHR JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA BNA-LHR JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA BOS-LHR JUL 4>1.0[4]
BA BWI-LHR JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA DEN-LHR JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA EWR-LHR JUL 2>0[2]
BA IAD-LHR JUL 2>1.0[2]
BA IAH-LHR JUL 2>0[2]
BA JFK-LGW JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA JFK-LHR JUL 8>2[8]
BA LAS-LGW JUL 0.7>0[0.9]
BA LAS-LHR JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA LAX-LHR JUL 3>1.0[3]
BA LGW-MCO JUL 2>0[2]
BA LGW-TPA JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA LHR-MIA JUL 2>1.0[3]
BA LHR-MSY JUL 0.9>0[0.7]
BA LHR-PHL JUL 1.4>0[1.4]
BA LHR-PHX JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA LHR-PIT JUL 0.6>0[0.6]
BA LHR-SAN JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA LHR-SEA JUL 2>1.0[2]
BA LHR-SFO JUL 2>1.0[2]
BA LHR-SJC JUL 1.0>0[1.0]


No LHR-DFW, LHR-ATL & LHR-ORD?
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1054
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Sun Jun 07, 2020 8:55 pm

tphuang wrote:
AA is really not at a position where it can blow a lot of money to exact vengeance. At this point, EWR/PHL look like they will be facing a whole lot of ULCC pressure. I can't imagine the current scheduled number of flights will all get flown on PHL-MCO.

Also the more I think about it, EWR-MYR with 3x daily from NK and 3x weekly from F9 is going to be flying very empty. As a comparison, ACK, a much more popular destination for New Yorkers, is only getting 1 middle seat capped E90 a day in July. PWM, another really popular destination, has no flight. A much larger market in CHS, is only seeing 2x middle seat blocked A320s a day in July.

Yet, MYR is getting 3x daily from EWR + 2x daily from LGA! I think some people inside NK HQs got a little too arrogant here.


No one is flying from NYC-ACK, everyone is driving or even hopping on the trains. This is not the case at all for MYR.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 2692
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Sun Jun 07, 2020 8:57 pm

dcajet wrote:
enilria wrote:

BA AUS-LHR JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA BNA-LHR JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA BOS-LHR JUL 4>1.0[4]
BA BWI-LHR JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA DEN-LHR JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA EWR-LHR JUL 2>0[2]
BA IAD-LHR JUL 2>1.0[2]
BA IAH-LHR JUL 2>0[2]
BA JFK-LGW JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA JFK-LHR JUL 8>2[8]
BA LAS-LGW JUL 0.7>0[0.9]
BA LAS-LHR JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA LAX-LHR JUL 3>1.0[3]
BA LGW-MCO JUL 2>0[2]
BA LGW-TPA JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA LHR-MIA JUL 2>1.0[3]
BA LHR-MSY JUL 0.9>0[0.7]
BA LHR-PHL JUL 1.4>0[1.4]
BA LHR-PHX JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA LHR-PIT JUL 0.6>0[0.6]
BA LHR-SAN JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA LHR-SEA JUL 2>1.0[2]
BA LHR-SFO JUL 2>1.0[2]
BA LHR-SJC JUL 1.0>0[1.0]


No LHR-DFW, LHR-ATL & LHR-ORD?


They were likely untouched. I believe LHR-ORD is currently operating pax flights while DFW/ATL resume in July.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5075
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Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Sun Jun 07, 2020 9:29 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
tphuang wrote:
AA is really not at a position where it can blow a lot of money to exact vengeance. At this point, EWR/PHL look like they will be facing a whole lot of ULCC pressure. I can't imagine the current scheduled number of flights will all get flown on PHL-MCO.

Also the more I think about it, EWR-MYR with 3x daily from NK and 3x weekly from F9 is going to be flying very empty. As a comparison, ACK, a much more popular destination for New Yorkers, is only getting 1 middle seat capped E90 a day in July. PWM, another really popular destination, has no flight. A much larger market in CHS, is only seeing 2x middle seat blocked A320s a day in July.

Yet, MYR is getting 3x daily from EWR + 2x daily from LGA! I think some people inside NK HQs got a little too arrogant here.


No one is flying from NYC-ACK, everyone is driving or even hopping on the trains. This is not the case at all for MYR.


Stop making stuff up. Last year, JetBlue had 8 flights a day from various New York City airports to ack on peak days.

You can't drive to ack without a long ferry ride.
Last edited by tphuang on Sun Jun 07, 2020 9:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
kavok
Posts: 815
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Sun Jun 07, 2020 9:31 pm

dcajet wrote:
enilria wrote:

BA AUS-LHR JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA BNA-LHR JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA BOS-LHR JUL 4>1.0[4]
BA BWI-LHR JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA DEN-LHR JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA EWR-LHR JUL 2>0[2]
BA IAD-LHR JUL 2>1.0[2]
BA IAH-LHR JUL 2>0[2]
BA JFK-LGW JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA JFK-LHR JUL 8>2[8]
BA LAS-LGW JUL 0.7>0[0.9]
BA LAS-LHR JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA LAX-LHR JUL 3>1.0[3]
BA LGW-MCO JUL 2>0[2]
BA LGW-TPA JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA LHR-MIA JUL 2>1.0[3]
BA LHR-MSY JUL 0.9>0[0.7]
BA LHR-PHL JUL 1.4>0[1.4]
BA LHR-PHX JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA LHR-PIT JUL 0.6>0[0.6]
BA LHR-SAN JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA LHR-SEA JUL 2>1.0[2]
BA LHR-SFO JUL 2>1.0[2]
BA LHR-SJC JUL 1.0>0[1.0]


No LHR-DFW, LHR-ATL & LHR-ORD?


That is what DL and AA are for. Same for LHR-PHL.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5075
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Sun Jun 07, 2020 9:39 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
I know I post a lot about this, but what the hell is AA doing in NY (forget JFK at this point let’s look at the whole region) and where do they go from here as we march towards recovery?

They are barely covering hubs at this point.

I was honestly surprised they even brought back JFK-SFO/CUN.

If 55% domestic means peak 50 departures a day at LGA, then a 75% domestic schedule a year from now means < 100 departures a day. My guess is 150 flight operation by end of next year between JFK/LGA/EWR.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 2333
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Sun Jun 07, 2020 9:54 pm

tphuang wrote:
AA is really not at a position where it can blow a lot of money to exact vengeance. At this point, EWR/PHL look like they will be facing a whole lot of ULCC pressure. I can't imagine the current scheduled number of flights will all get flown on PHL-MCO.

Also the more I think about it, EWR-MYR with 3x daily from NK and 3x weekly from F9 is going to be flying very empty. As a comparison, ACK, a much more popular destination for New Yorkers, is only getting 1 middle seat capped E90 a day in July. PWM, another really popular destination, has no flight. A much larger market in CHS, is only seeing 2x middle seat blocked A320s a day in July.

Yet, MYR is getting 3x daily from EWR + 2x daily from LGA! I think some people inside NK HQs got a little too arrogant here.


You are forgetting a major factor - the status of restrictions in those places. South Carolina is far less restricted than Massachusetts. Further, I think the higher-income tourist destinations (ACK and CHS) aren't getting as much because it seems to be more of the lower-end destinations (e.g., MYR) that are coming back faster.

Also comparing NK/F9 schedules to what B6 is flying isn't a great comparison, airlines all have very different approaches to scheduling in July.
 
Sctvman
Posts: 11
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2018 5:28 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Sun Jun 07, 2020 10:39 pm

Those Silver flights from CHS did not last very long. They were supposed to start July 2 and July 3.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 7790
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Sun Jun 07, 2020 11:53 pm

tphuang wrote:
Also the more I think about it, EWR-MYR with 3x daily from NK and 3x weekly from F9 is going to be flying very empty. As a comparison, ACK, a much more popular destination for New Yorkers, is only getting 1 middle seat capped E90 a day in July.


Cheap fares from F9 and NK can stimulate demand to MYR (although it's not LAS or MCO). ACK is a very poor comparison as it's greatly limited by hotel infrastructure.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5075
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:46 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Also the more I think about it, EWR-MYR with 3x daily from NK and 3x weekly from F9 is going to be flying very empty. As a comparison, ACK, a much more popular destination for New Yorkers, is only getting 1 middle seat capped E90 a day in July.


Cheap fares from F9 and NK can stimulate demand to MYR (although it's not LAS or MCO). ACK is a very poor comparison as it's greatly limited by hotel infrastructure.


I have not heard of anyone going to MYR in all my time in NYC. Booking out of NYC is down over 90% YoY. UA sees no demand MYR. And now because F9 got into hte market with 3x weekly, NK is going from 1 to 3x daily.

Another way to think about it, EWR-MYR has more capacity than EWR-RDU. In fact NK is offering more seats on EWR/LGA-MYR (5 x 178??) than UA/DL/AA/B6 (8 x 75 + 150 * 0.6) offers out of EWR/LGA/JFK-RDU combined. I don't see how MYR has even close to the leisure demand out of NYC that RDU does.

There seems to be a huge battle going on right now between NK/F9 in the same markets.
 
ytib
Posts: 556
Joined: Sun Nov 07, 2004 3:22 am

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:54 am

tphuang wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Also the more I think about it, EWR-MYR with 3x daily from NK and 3x weekly from F9 is going to be flying very empty. As a comparison, ACK, a much more popular destination for New Yorkers, is only getting 1 middle seat capped E90 a day in July.


Cheap fares from F9 and NK can stimulate demand to MYR (although it's not LAS or MCO). ACK is a very poor comparison as it's greatly limited by hotel infrastructure.


I have not heard of anyone going to MYR in all my time in NYC. Booking out of NYC is down over 90% YoY. UA sees no demand MYR. And now because F9 got into hte market with 3x weekly, NK is going from 1 to 3x daily.

Another way to think about it, EWR-MYR has more capacity than EWR-RDU. In fact NK is offering more seats on EWR/LGA-MYR (5 x 178??) than UA/DL/AA/B6 (8 x 75 + 150 * 0.6) offers out of EWR/LGA/JFK-RDU combined. I don't see how MYR has even close to the leisure demand out of NYC that RDU does.

There seems to be a huge battle going on right now between NK/F9 in the same markets.


The New York MSA was #4 based on Visa credit card spend in 2018. The MSA's ahead of it... Charlotte, Washington DC and Wilmington.
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318, 319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 388, 707, 717, 722, 732, 733, 734, 73Q, 735, 73G, 738, 7M8, 739, 752, 753, 742, 74L, 744, 762, 763, 772, 77L, 77W, 789, 142, CN1, CR2, CR7, DC8, DH2, DH8, D8Q, D10, D95, EM2, ER3, ER4, E70, 100, J31, M11, M83, M88, M90, SF3
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 782
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:59 am

tphuang wrote:
UA is running a more robust domestic schedule at IAD than I expected. Especially the shorter ranged stuff. Quite an interesting move since I had expected IAD to be the one station they bring back more slowly due to lack of competitive pressure there. They must be doing it because IAD is more profitable than their other coastal hubs.

What equipment, though? Is it mostly 145’s?
 
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OzarkD9S
Posts: 5650
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2001 2:31 am

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:00 am

jfklganyc wrote:

I know I post a lot about this, but what the hell is AA doing in NY (forget JFK at this point let’s look at the whole region) and where do they go from here as we march towards recovery?

They are barely covering hubs at this point.


My guess is AA is realizing they are going to end up much like WN in NYC. A carrier that takes people TO NYC from their strongholds rather than an NYC originating force. Except for LAX/MIA and to a lessor extent SFO. AA LGA ops will be quite interesting to watch going forward.
"True, I talk of dreams,
Which are the children of an idle brain." -Mercutio
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 782
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:01 am

UA BGR-ACK...
Is that a tag from ORD?
 
sprxUSA
Posts: 399
Joined: Thu Dec 02, 2004 5:17 am

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:24 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
UA BGR-ACK...
Is that a tag from ORD?


Well as stated earlier, itvis an IAD-ACK-BGR routing.
Gem State Airlines..."we have a gem of an airline"
 
orcajet
Posts: 16
Joined: Sun Nov 25, 2018 8:24 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:06 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
tphuang wrote:
AA is really not at a position where it can blow a lot of money to exact vengeance. At this point, EWR/PHL look like they will be facing a whole lot of ULCC pressure. I can't imagine the current scheduled number of flights will all get flown on PHL-MCO.

Also the more I think about it, EWR-MYR with 3x daily from NK and 3x weekly from F9 is going to be flying very empty. As a comparison, ACK, a much more popular destination for New Yorkers, is only getting 1 middle seat capped E90 a day in July. PWM, another really popular destination, has no flight. A much larger market in CHS, is only seeing 2x middle seat blocked A320s a day in July.

Yet, MYR is getting 3x daily from EWR + 2x daily from LGA! I think some people inside NK HQs got a little too arrogant here.


No one is flying from NYC-ACK, everyone is driving or even hopping on the trains. This is not the case at all for MYR.

Next time I see ACK on the board in Penn station I’ll let you know
 
HardeesBiscuit
Posts: 30
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:46 am

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:06 am

tphuang wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Also the more I think about it, EWR-MYR with 3x daily from NK and 3x weekly from F9 is going to be flying very empty. As a comparison, ACK, a much more popular destination for New Yorkers, is only getting 1 middle seat capped E90 a day in July.


Cheap fares from F9 and NK can stimulate demand to MYR (although it's not LAS or MCO). ACK is a very poor comparison as it's greatly limited by hotel infrastructure.


I have not heard of anyone going to MYR in all my time in NYC. Booking out of NYC is down over 90% YoY. UA sees no demand MYR. And now because F9 got into hte market with 3x weekly, NK is going from 1 to 3x daily.

Another way to think about it, EWR-MYR has more capacity than EWR-RDU. In fact NK is offering more seats on EWR/LGA-MYR (5 x 178??) than UA/DL/AA/B6 (8 x 75 + 150 * 0.6) offers out of EWR/LGA/JFK-RDU combined. I don't see how MYR has even close to the leisure demand out of NYC that RDU does.

There seems to be a huge battle going on right now between NK/F9 in the same markets.


Friend of mine was the MYR President/CEO. Said NYC is historically a HUUUUUUGE market for originating passengers coming to MYR. So much so that when the economy in NYC suffers, so do the passenger numbers in MYR.
 
KFTG
Posts: 812
Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:08 am

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:56 am

When did PHL-LHR go A35K on BA?
Looks like RDU-LHR is B77W from 05Aug.
 
PHLspecial
Posts: 639
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Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:09 am

KFTG wrote:
When did PHL-LHR go A35K on BA?
Looks like RDU-LHR is B77W from 05Aug.

The A35K was supposed to be on the PHL-LHR route in March but now they only run a cargo flight B788 3-4 times a week. We shall see if BA will be allowed to go PHL by August, which I doubt in my opinion
 
KFTG
Posts: 812
Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:08 am

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:15 am

Well, they're selling tickets...
 
tphuang
Posts: 5075
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:06 am

HardeesBiscuit wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I have not heard of anyone going to MYR in all my time in NYC. Booking out of NYC is down over 90% YoY. UA sees no demand MYR. And now because F9 got into hte market with 3x weekly, NK is going from 1 to 3x daily.

Another way to think about it, EWR-MYR has more capacity than EWR-RDU. In fact NK is offering more seats on EWR/LGA-MYR (5 x 178??) than UA/DL/AA/B6 (8 x 75 + 150 * 0.6) offers out of EWR/LGA/JFK-RDU combined. I don't see how MYR has even close to the leisure demand out of NYC that RDU does.

There seems to be a huge battle going on right now between NK/F9 in the same markets.


Friend of mine was the MYR President/CEO. Said NYC is historically a HUUUUUUGE market for originating passengers coming to MYR. So much so that when the economy in NYC suffers, so do the passenger numbers in MYR.


It is still a tiny market compared to all these other ones I mentioned.

Just to give you a context of demand from 2019Q2.

MYR had PDEW of 296 from NYC. It's the 50th largest market from NYC. That's already with rock bottom fares from NK.of $100 per person. NK captured close to 40% of that market.

In comparison,
CHS had PDEW of 910
RDU had PDEW of 1684
MSY had PDEW of 1464
RSW had PDEW of 1300
LAS had PDEW of 2608

These places all now have less capacity than MYR. Booking in NYC is down over 90% compared to last year at this point. Outside of chasing F9 off a route with no demand, there is no logic in this move by NK.
 
Chuska
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Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:05 pm

AA ABQ-DFW JUL 7>5[8]

Many of AA's DFW flights will be except Tue/Wed so markets like ABQ-DFW will actually have 6 instead of 5, two flights are x23. Great news is all 6 ABQ-DFW will upgrade back from Eagle to all mainline 738's.
 
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jfklganyc
Posts: 5927
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:39 pm

I don’t even know why you’re indulging a poster who says “I haven’t met anyone who goes to Myrtle Beach from New York City.


The reason there is more capacity there then RDU at moment is the soaring leisure demand to get away from NYC

We see this with lots of flights coming back to Orlando Fort Lauderdale West Palm Beach Tampa Fort Myers a natural extension of that is MYR.

People have time and money and they will travel this summer to the safest, close, fun place they can think of.

I said that 2 months ago.

Florida and South Carolina beaches check all the boxes
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 589
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:57 pm

I keep thinking this is going to hit a wall. There's still large number of unemployed people out there and more to come. Add into that many businesses still haven't re-opened offices and those that have require masks and social distancing. That kills a lot of business travel not to mention non discretionary travel for items like conferences or trade shows won't be returning until at least next year. I have to wonder if some of this expansion will get pared back, particularly if it's nothing more than garbage yields.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:17 pm

OzarkD9S wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:

I know I post a lot about this, but what the hell is AA doing in NY (forget JFK at this point let’s look at the whole region) and where do they go from here as we march towards recovery?

They are barely covering hubs at this point.


My guess is AA is realizing they are going to end up much like WN in NYC. A carrier that takes people TO NYC from their strongholds rather than an NYC originating force. Except for LAX/MIA and to a lessor extent SFO. AA LGA ops will be quite interesting to watch going forward.



They tried this strategy a few years ago when they re-timed things out of LaGuardia.

Didn’t work.

For that strategy to work profitably they would have to cut back significantly on their slot holdings.

That may be what they end up doing.
 
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STT757
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Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:01 pm

tphuang wrote:
AA is really not at a position where it can blow a lot of money to exact vengeance. At this point, EWR/PHL look like they will be facing a whole lot of ULCC pressure. I can't imagine the current scheduled number of flights will all get flown on PHL-MCO.

Also the more I think about it, EWR-MYR with 3x daily from NK and 3x weekly from F9 is going to be flying very empty. As a comparison, ACK, a much more popular destination for New Yorkers, is only getting 1 middle seat capped E90 a day in July. PWM, another really popular destination, has no flight. A much larger market in CHS, is only seeing 2x middle seat blocked A320s a day in July.

Yet, MYR is getting 3x daily from EWR + 2x daily from LGA! I think some people inside NK HQs got a little too arrogant here.


Have you ever been to Myrtle Beach? There's no way Nantucket is more popular for New Yorkers than Myrtle Beach. It might be more popular within some elite circles, but the Fire Fighters, Teachers, police etc.. take their families to Myrtle Beach. Most drive. There's also a huge retiree population from New York and New Jersey in and around Myrtle Beach. That's why you see NK flights at Atlantic City, that's the Silver hair express connecting South Jersey retirement communities with their Winter homes in South Carolina and Florida.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
tphuang
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Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:54 pm

STT757 wrote:
Have you ever been to Myrtle Beach? There's no way Nantucket is more popular for New Yorkers than Myrtle Beach. It might be more popular within some elite circles, but the Fire Fighters, Teachers, police etc.. take their families to Myrtle Beach. Most drive. There's also a huge retiree population from New York and New Jersey in and around Myrtle Beach. That's why you see NK flights at Atlantic City, that's the Silver hair express connecting South Jersey retirement communities with their Winter homes in South Carolina and Florida.


I have not been there and clearly nobody in my circle goes there. Even if MYR has more demand than ACK, I don't see how it has more demand than Florida beaches.

Right now, there is more capacity on NYC-MYR than NYC-PBI/RSW/RDU. EWR-MYR alone has more capacity than NYC-JAX as a whole. All these places have far higher PDEW than MYR last summer and are warm beach locations and/or has large transplant population or second homes.
PBI - 2259
RDU - 1620
RSW - 882
JAX - 806
MYR - 516
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:02 pm

tphuang wrote:
STT757 wrote:
Have you ever been to Myrtle Beach? There's no way Nantucket is more popular for New Yorkers than Myrtle Beach. It might be more popular within some elite circles, but the Fire Fighters, Teachers, police etc.. take their families to Myrtle Beach. Most drive. There's also a huge retiree population from New York and New Jersey in and around Myrtle Beach. That's why you see NK flights at Atlantic City, that's the Silver hair express connecting South Jersey retirement communities with their Winter homes in South Carolina and Florida.


I have not been there and clearly nobody in my circle goes there. Even if MYR has more demand than ACK, I don't see how it has more demand than Florida beaches.

Right now, there is more capacity on NYC-MYR than NYC-PBI/RSW/RDU. EWR-MYR alone has more capacity than NYC-JAX as a whole. All these places have far higher PDEW than MYR last summer and are warm beach locations and/or has large transplant population or second homes.
PBI - 2259
RDU - 1620
RSW - 882
JAX - 806
MYR - 516


1. RDU is not a tourist destination
2. Florida has restrictions on NYC area travelers
3. MYR is booming right now relative to the overall industry, some places reporting higher yoy bookings: “We’re doing about three times [the bookings] this time of year compared to what we did the same time last year." Weekend occupancy is in the upper 80 to lower 90% range

https://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/news/ ... 79301.html
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
CRJ5000
Posts: 136
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:06 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:28 pm

tphuang wrote:

I have not been there and clearly nobody in my circle goes there. Even if MYR has more demand than ACK, I don't see how it has more demand than Florida beaches.

Right now, there is more capacity on NYC-MYR than NYC-PBI/RSW/RDU. EWR-MYR alone has more capacity than NYC-JAX as a whole. All these places have far higher PDEW than MYR last summer and are warm beach locations and/or has large transplant population or second homes.
PBI - 2259
RDU - 1620
RSW - 882
JAX - 806
MYR - 516


NK is gambling... that's pretty much it. Obviously their market research indicates it could work, but I think ultimately they are just taking a bet and hoping it comes out their way. It very well may not and will be short lived or some of the frequencies may not ever even start. Same thing with their expanded July schedule. It wouldn't surprise me if they cut some frequencies prior to July if loads aren't where they want.
 
CairnterriAIR
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Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 1:52 am

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:41 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
tphuang wrote:
AA is really not at a position where it can blow a lot of money to exact vengeance. At this point, EWR/PHL look like they will be facing a whole lot of ULCC pressure. I can't imagine the current scheduled number of flights will all get flown on PHL-MCO.

Also the more I think about it, EWR-MYR with 3x daily from NK and 3x weekly from F9 is going to be flying very empty. As a comparison, ACK, a much more popular destination for New Yorkers, is only getting 1 middle seat capped E90 a day in July. PWM, another really popular destination, has no flight. A much larger market in CHS, is only seeing 2x middle seat blocked A320s a day in July.

Yet, MYR is getting 3x daily from EWR + 2x daily from LGA! I think some people inside NK HQs got a little too arrogant here.


No one is flying from NYC-ACK, everyone is driving or even hopping on the trains. This is not the case at all for MYR.


That’s going to be a rather interesting train ride. Hopefully the locomotive and coaches float.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5075
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:47 pm

CRJ5000 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

I have not been there and clearly nobody in my circle goes there. Even if MYR has more demand than ACK, I don't see how it has more demand than Florida beaches.

Right now, there is more capacity on NYC-MYR than NYC-PBI/RSW/RDU. EWR-MYR alone has more capacity than NYC-JAX as a whole. All these places have far higher PDEW than MYR last summer and are warm beach locations and/or has large transplant population or second homes.
PBI - 2259
RDU - 1620
RSW - 882
JAX - 806
MYR - 516


NK is gambling... that's pretty much it. Obviously their market research indicates it could work, but I think ultimately they are just taking a bet and hoping it comes out their way. It very well may not and will be short lived or some of the frequencies may not ever even start. Same thing with their expanded July schedule. It wouldn't surprise me if they cut some frequencies prior to July if loads aren't where they want.


Right, that's what I think. They are taking quite a few shots out of EWR right now to try to grab some real estate there. Most of what they do at least make sense to me, except for MYR.
 
Miamiairport
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Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:16 pm

From AA's perspective they really can't rely on past data although I assume some of this is tied to advance bookings looking favorable. AA has lots of shiny new airplanes that have debt/lease payments tied to them. I think they'd rather be at the forefront and at worst cut capacity if AA goes overboard.
 
thebag707
Posts: 1
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Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:23 pm

To compare ACK and MYR is like comparing Fifth Avenue with an outlet mall. The outlet mall may have far more traffic but the yield on 5th Ave is radically different.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14427
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Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:29 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
STT757 wrote:
Have you ever been to Myrtle Beach? There's no way Nantucket is more popular for New Yorkers than Myrtle Beach. It might be more popular within some elite circles, but the Fire Fighters, Teachers, police etc.. take their families to Myrtle Beach. Most drive. There's also a huge retiree population from New York and New Jersey in and around Myrtle Beach. That's why you see NK flights at Atlantic City, that's the Silver hair express connecting South Jersey retirement communities with their Winter homes in South Carolina and Florida.


I have not been there and clearly nobody in my circle goes there. Even if MYR has more demand than ACK, I don't see how it has more demand than Florida beaches.

Right now, there is more capacity on NYC-MYR than NYC-PBI/RSW/RDU. EWR-MYR alone has more capacity than NYC-JAX as a whole. All these places have far higher PDEW than MYR last summer and are warm beach locations and/or has large transplant population or second homes.
PBI - 2259
RDU - 1620
RSW - 882
JAX - 806
MYR - 516


1. RDU is not a tourist destination
2. Florida has restrictions on NYC area travelers
3. MYR is booming right now relative to the overall industry, some places reporting higher yoy bookings: “We’re doing about three times [the bookings] this time of year compared to what we did the same time last year." Weekend occupancy is in the upper 80 to lower 90% range

https://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/news/ ... 79301.html


Within the beach destinations in the Central and Eastern time zones, the somewhat more downmarket destinations seem to be coming back faster. Many of the Alabama and Panhandle beaches were packed over Memorial Day weekend; I was in a much more affluent area on the east coast of Florida and there was essentially no one out. It doesn't make a lot of sense given that we know about the people catching and getting sick from the coronavirus, but that would be consistent with strong demand to MYR.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
Josh32121
Posts: 287
Joined: Wed Apr 30, 2008 1:02 am

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:30 pm

dcajet wrote:
enilria wrote:

BA AUS-LHR JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA BNA-LHR JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA BOS-LHR JUL 4>1.0[4]
BA BWI-LHR JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA DEN-LHR JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA EWR-LHR JUL 2>0[2]
BA IAD-LHR JUL 2>1.0[2]
BA IAH-LHR JUL 2>0[2]
BA JFK-LGW JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA JFK-LHR JUL 8>2[8]
BA LAS-LGW JUL 0.7>0[0.9]
BA LAS-LHR JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA LAX-LHR JUL 3>1.0[3]
BA LGW-MCO JUL 2>0[2]
BA LGW-TPA JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA LHR-MIA JUL 2>1.0[3]
BA LHR-MSY JUL 0.9>0[0.7]
BA LHR-PHL JUL 1.4>0[1.4]
BA LHR-PHX JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA LHR-PIT JUL 0.6>0[0.6]
BA LHR-SAN JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA LHR-SEA JUL 2>1.0[2]
BA LHR-SFO JUL 2>1.0[2]
BA LHR-SJC JUL 1.0>0[1.0]


No LHR-DFW, LHR-ATL & LHR-ORD?


ATL-LHR on BA has been operating daily for the last couple of weeks.
ATLien
 
dcajet
Posts: 4654
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:31 am

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:44 pm

Josh32121 wrote:
dcajet wrote:
enilria wrote:

BA AUS-LHR JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA BNA-LHR JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA BOS-LHR JUL 4>1.0[4]
BA BWI-LHR JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA DEN-LHR JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA EWR-LHR JUL 2>0[2]
BA IAD-LHR JUL 2>1.0[2]
BA IAH-LHR JUL 2>0[2]
BA JFK-LGW JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA JFK-LHR JUL 8>2[8]
BA LAS-LGW JUL 0.7>0[0.9]
BA LAS-LHR JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA LAX-LHR JUL 3>1.0[3]
BA LGW-MCO JUL 2>0[2]
BA LGW-TPA JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA LHR-MIA JUL 2>1.0[3]
BA LHR-MSY JUL 0.9>0[0.7]
BA LHR-PHL JUL 1.4>0[1.4]
BA LHR-PHX JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA LHR-PIT JUL 0.6>0[0.6]
BA LHR-SAN JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
BA LHR-SEA JUL 2>1.0[2]
BA LHR-SFO JUL 2>1.0[2]
BA LHR-SJC JUL 1.0>0[1.0]


No LHR-DFW, LHR-ATL & LHR-ORD?


ATL-LHR on BA has been operating daily for the last couple of weeks.


And so was DFW, but with cargo. Was that the case with ATL?
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
traindoc
Posts: 355
Joined: Thu Mar 06, 2008 11:35 am

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:44 pm

Thanks for your hard work!
 
User avatar
enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10195
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:39 pm

traindoc wrote:
Thanks for your hard work!

:) Thanks!
 
evank516
Posts: 2123
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

Re: OAG Changes 6/7/2020: JULY SHANKED;AA Exits ORH;AS Adds BOI-SFO,Drops MSY-SFO,SAN-SBP/SMF;NK Out of AVL;F9 PHLMCO 6x

Thu Jun 11, 2020 9:07 pm

Maybe this was covered in a previous posting of yours enilria, so forgive me, but I saw an article that 3M is restarting EYW on 6/15 from FLL, MCO, and TPA.

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