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Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:17 am

I searched for an appropriate thread to put this in, but most were centered around the 747-8F, 777-300ERF conversion, or 777X development.
QUOTE: "LNA is told Boeing sales floated the possibility of launching the 777-8F around 2023-24. This would bring forward the launch by about two years from plans when the X program was launched in 2013."
The quote pretty much sums it up, but it would make sense. The 747-8F would be wrapping up production around that period, so a new large freighter would need to be offered by Boeing.

https://leehamnews.com/2020/06/04/hotr- ... he-777-8f/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:52 am

More to do with internal Boeing dialogue and positioning, than material customer interest / demand. Defending the X from the all conquering 787, also lobbying to offer an F derivative. Will the Board support both?
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Wed Jun 10, 2020 4:29 am

Well it would help define the 778F, likely to lose a couple of rows, possibly a different wing tip after the hinge, and similar things. After all freighters are flown primarily at the max payload range for shorter flights, rather than going for the 16 hour passenger flights. Losing a few rows would even improve it for ULH, but that is a thin market.
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Wed Jun 10, 2020 4:36 am

Makes sense. With interest fading quickly in the 777-8, why not pivot to the 777-8F which is likely to see stronger demand?
I always wondered about the 777-8 after the 777-2LR didn't sell so well. And losing Project Sunrise I think was the nail in the coffin.
For carriers wanting/needing to fly ULH with a 777X, they can do it with a 777-9 and just block some rows of seats, similar to how airlines are doing with the 777-300ER.
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Wed Jun 10, 2020 4:42 am

Tokyo777 wrote:
Makes sense. With interest fading quickly in the 777-8, why not pivot to the 777-8F which is likely to see stronger demand?
I always wondered about the 777-8 after the 777-2LR didn't sell so well. And losing Project Sunrise I think was the nail in the coffin.
For carriers wanting/needing to fly ULH with a 777X, they can do it with a 777-9 and just block some rows of seats, similar to how airlines are doing with the 777-300ER.


I agree, not sure what market they were chasing with the 778. Even Sunrise, that's a measly 12 frames; basically worth bragging rights and nothing else.
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Wed Jun 10, 2020 7:37 am

It is interesting to note that while the 777-200LR orders stopped at 61 units, the freighter version has a total of 231 orders, of which 186 have been delivered.
It is a nice incremental order for the program 777-300ER, 777-200LR and 777F.

If 777-8 could achieve the same level of orders and deliveries as the 777-200LR & 777F then it would also be a nice incremental income for the 777-8/777-8 program.

As we know today, Boeing has not announced the firm configuration of the 777-8. It is likely they will work hard to achieve this milestone toward the end of this year.

I do hope they won't be chasing the useless ultra-log-haul market and increase the fuselage length slightly relative to the current known configuration.
It is much more interesting to serve the need of the majority instead of trying to get the niche of a niche of ultra-long-haul market.
In my opinion, if the 777-8 is doing as well as the 777-200LR and 777F (777-200LRF) then it will have a significant contribution to the whole 777-9/777-8 program.

Seriously, who would have thought the 777F would get 231 (two hundred and thirty one) orders?
The 777-8F may well have the same success.
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Wed Jun 10, 2020 7:55 am

I think it is important to gear the 777-8 towards freight even if this means a higher OEW and therefore "ruining it" for passenger operation. Dimension everything to get the highest possible landing weight as well as a strong cabin floor.

For a freighter a 5t higher OEW is no problem when it can land with 10t more cargo than a converted/dual use passenger machine. The 777-8F has to replace 747s and 777 freighters over time so it needs volume and payload. If this means a heavier structure to be able to land with as much cargo as possible so be it. Boeing should give up on the ULH market with the 777-8. Flying long distances and have the possibility carry a lot of cargo might cut to many corners to be competitive.
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Wed Jun 10, 2020 7:56 am

Would it not make sense at this point to either: Base the 77X-F off the 779 fuselage and call it done; or; base the 77X-F on the -300ER fuselage to avoid a bespoke fuselage between the -300 and the -9, if no passenger -8 will be built. If they shortend the current -8 by a few rows they are pretty much at -300 fuselage anyhow. I wonder if basing it off the -9 fuselage may give enough wiggle room for an extra wide cargo door to placate those 747-F nose cargo needs (not all of them, obviously)
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:23 am

VCVSpotter wrote:
I searched for an appropriate thread to put this in, but most were centered around the 747-8F, 777-300ERF conversion, or 777X development.
QUOTE: "LNA is told Boeing sales floated the possibility of launching the 777-8F around 2023-24. This would bring forward the launch by about two years from plans when the X program was launched in 2013."
The quote pretty much sums it up, but it would make sense. The 747-8F would be wrapping up production around that period, so a new large freighter would need to be offered by Boeing.

https://leehamnews.com/2020/06/04/hotr- ... he-777-8f/

Since not everybody will need the -9 and the -8 is touted to have Killer range. Putting out the -8F might very well be a ploy to negate Airbus from having an A350F and it would sure take out the A330F It might not even need all the wing of the -9, however?? If it increases the uplift and Range both? It will be a good deal as the .GE engines installed are of a lower thrust rating than the engines on the -300ER as they were optimized for the longer wing. And? I would doubt Boeing is going to make the 777-8XF an entirely separate fleet type. I think the -8 and -9 will be as common as they can make them with the exception of a few fuselage frames and a Cargo Door.
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Wed Jun 10, 2020 10:09 am

So what will Boeing have to do to make the 777-XF a better choice than the 777-8F?

The MTOW is the same and the 777-XF will weigh quite a bit more.
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Wed Jun 10, 2020 10:31 am

VV wrote:
I do hope they won't be chasing the useless ultra-log-haul market and increase the fuselage length slightly relative to the current known configuration.
It is much more interesting to serve the need of the majority instead of trying to get the niche of a niche of ultra-long-haul market.
In my opinion, if the 777-8 is doing as well as the 777-200LR and 777F (777-200LRF) then it will have a significant contribution to the whole 777-9/777-8 program.

Seriously, who would have thought the 777F would get 231 (two hundred and thirty one) orders?
The 777-8F may well have the same success.


The majority doesn't need the 777-8 at all. Even the 777-9 is a niche product now. The freighter will have a tough time as well because there will be hundreds of 77Ws available for conversion that will be flooding the market. Boeing's main concern right now should be how to spend the less money possible on this program that will struggle to recover its costs.

The 777-9 is almost ready now, so they have no choice but to finish it.

The freighter might help to recover some of the costs so it's probably worth being done but its fuselage length must be a compromise between costs of development/production and efficiency. If it is possible to keep the -9's fuselage length and still have a decent freighter then go for it, keep as much commonality as possible.

The 777-8 should be canceled outright.
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Wed Jun 10, 2020 10:57 am

workhorse wrote:
VV wrote:
I do hope they won't be chasing the useless ultra-log-haul market and increase the fuselage length slightly relative to the current known configuration.
It is much more interesting to serve the need of the majority instead of trying to get the niche of a niche of ultra-long-haul market.
In my opinion, if the 777-8 is doing as well as the 777-200LR and 777F (777-200LRF) then it will have a significant contribution to the whole 777-9/777-8 program.

Seriously, who would have thought the 777F would get 231 (two hundred and thirty one) orders?
The 777-8F may well have the same success.


The majority doesn't need the 777-8 at all. Even the 777-9 is a niche product now. The freighter will have a tough time as well because there will be hundreds of 77Ws available for conversion that will be flooding the market. Boeing's main concern right now should be how to spend the less money possible on this program that will struggle to recover its costs.

The 777-9 is almost ready now, so they have no choice but to finish it.

The freighter might help to recover some of the costs so it's probably worth being done but its fuselage length must be a compromise between costs of development/production and efficiency. If it is possible to keep the -9's fuselage length and still have a decent freighter then go for it, keep as much commonality as possible.

The 777-8 should be canceled outright.


Strange people thought the world would need behemoth like A380, but now think it doesn't need the much smaller twin 777-9.

Obviously the 777-8 will go ahead once the work on the 777-9 reaches a level that allows the 777-8 configuration to be firmed. It can happen in the second half this year.
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Wed Jun 10, 2020 1:52 pm

VV wrote:
It is interesting to note that while the 777-200LR orders stopped at 61 units, the freighter version has a total of 231 orders, of which 186 have been delivered.
It is a nice incremental order for the program 777-300ER, 777-200LR and 777F.

If 777-8 could achieve the same level of orders and deliveries as the 777-200LR & 777F then it would also be a nice incremental income for the 777-8/777-8 program.

As we know today, Boeing has not announced the firm configuration of the 777-8. It is likely they will work hard to achieve this milestone toward the end of this year.

I do hope they won't be chasing the useless ultra-log-haul market and increase the fuselage length slightly relative to the current known configuration.
It is much more interesting to serve the need of the majority instead of trying to get the niche of a niche of ultra-long-haul market.
In my opinion, if the 777-8 is doing as well as the 777-200LR and 777F (777-200LRF) then it will have a significant contribution to the whole 777-9/777-8 program.

Seriously, who would have thought the 777F would get 231 (two hundred and thirty one) orders?
The 777-8F may well have the same success.

All the rumors are for a custom length a little longer than the 778 with custom structure to increase payload. Obviously an increase in OEW would result.

The new engines are amazingly efficient. As noted before, there are 231 777F orders. This could be enough to improve 777x economics of scale just enough to increase 779 sales.

I see many posts here saying drop the 778. However, for long haul where field performance is of concern, there will be no competition unless the 788 is considered competition. I'm not saying huge sales, but incremental sales.

When I plot out the A330-300 vs. 777-300ER vs. A380 costs vs. capacity, I understand why the A380 didn't sell well. In particular after so many engine and airframe PiPs on the 777-300ER/LR. The only fuel burn reduction PiP on the A380 failed.

This is about economics of scale. If the 777xF saves economics of scale and allows efficient manufacturing and PiPs, it must be done.

I do not understand why Airbus didn't increase the A330F MTOW more. That Aircraft needed weight to use the center fuel tank. Airbus also needed to reduce the unusable fuel in that tank, but that is another discussion for tech ops.

I've heard rumors of interest in a 777xF.
There are 231 777F orders
There are 231 767-300F orders
There are/were:
747-200F 73
747-400F 126
747-400ERF 40
747-8F 106
or a total of 345 747 freighters plus combis.

Now, a modern widebody is a combi thanks to incredible underfloor capacity. I do expect, mid-term, belly to displace some cargo aircraft as well as expanding train service Asia to Europe.

But any way I do the numbers, I see a demand for 200 to 300 777xF, only reduced if Airbus does competitive freighters.

Yes, I do assume as substantial number of 777-300ERSFs too as well as continued A330 conversions. I personally believe the majority of 777s and A330s flying in 2035 will be freighters. It could happen much earlier, depending on conversion rates and new widebody production.

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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:11 pm

lightsaber wrote:
. ...
But any way I do the numbers, I see a demand for 200 to 300 777xF, only reduced if Airbus does competitive freighters.

.....


With which platform????
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:18 pm

VV wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
. ...
But any way I do the numbers, I see a demand for 200 to 300 777xF, only reduced if Airbus does competitive freighters.

.....


With which platform????

That quickly goes off topic. I see two options that could reduce 777F sales:
1. A338F with 251t MTOW and a reduced unusable fuel level in the center tank.
2. A35K structure at A359 length or so.

I don't believe in head on competition, but rather system planning is driving passenger and freight to a variety of sizing. Large aircraft, such as a 777xF, must have outstanding variable unit costs. While the 777xF will have that outstanding variable unit costs, I see the potential for Airbus to improve their economics of scale too.

This industry is all about economics of scale. It is very tough to sell any aircraft family until 400+ have been sold. That is what it takes to convince customers there will be PiPs, good MRO support, and for finance companies, the viability of an aftermarket.

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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:41 pm

I have rarely seen successful bespoke freighter.
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Wed Jun 10, 2020 4:27 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
After all freighters are flown primarily at the max payload range for shorter flights, rather than going for the 16 hour passenger flights. Losing a few rows would even improve it for ULH, but that is a thin market.

With a 778F, could the 778P be far behind (Sunrise notwithstanding)? Many airlines are not looking for huge passenger capacity :crowded: they can also trade range for a significant belly intake. May be a bit shortsighted but a suitable response to the demands of the times. Could be what the doctor might prescribe.
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:39 pm

Can a 777-8P haul same/more (?) PAX + same/more cargo tonnage (?) a same/further distance (?) than a A35K/ULR for Project Sunrise?
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Wed Jun 10, 2020 10:16 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Can a 777-8P haul same/more (?) PAX + same/more cargo tonnage (?) a same/further distance (?) than a A35K/ULR for Project Sunrise?


I think someone said above that Boeing has not reached the firm configuration on the 777-8 yet.
So, obviously it is difficult to know what the 777-8 would do or would not do before the configuration is firmed.
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:29 am

VV wrote:
workhorse wrote:
VV wrote:
I do hope they won't be chasing the useless ultra-log-haul market and increase the fuselage length slightly relative to the current known configuration.
It is much more interesting to serve the need of the majority instead of trying to get the niche of a niche of ultra-long-haul market.
In my opinion, if the 777-8 is doing as well as the 777-200LR and 777F (777-200LRF) then it will have a significant contribution to the whole 777-9/777-8 program.

Seriously, who would have thought the 777F would get 231 (two hundred and thirty one) orders?
The 777-8F may well have the same success.


The majority doesn't need the 777-8 at all. Even the 777-9 is a niche product now. The freighter will have a tough time as well because there will be hundreds of 77Ws available for conversion that will be flooding the market. Boeing's main concern right now should be how to spend the less money possible on this program that will struggle to recover its costs.

The 777-9 is almost ready now, so they have no choice but to finish it.

The freighter might help to recover some of the costs so it's probably worth being done but its fuselage length must be a compromise between costs of development/production and efficiency. If it is possible to keep the -9's fuselage length and still have a decent freighter then go for it, keep as much commonality as possible.

The 777-8 should be canceled outright.


Strange people thought the world would need behemoth like A380, but now think it doesn't need the much smaller twin 777-9.

Obviously the 777-8 will go ahead once the work on the 777-9 reaches a level that allows the 777-8 configuration to be firmed. It can happen in the second half this year.

Just about everyone is ballparking the 777X-9 at 400-450 seats in a jwy legacy configuration while a380 in a similar configuration was around 500-550. I simply think the market for these VLA's is not as good as it used to be because these planes used to be the only options to operate with the range needed, but as smaller aircraft get longer ranges the number of seats needed on a hub to hub route becomes a smaller portion of the seats in any given market.
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:46 am

dstblj52 wrote:
...
Just about everyone is ballparking the 777X-9 at 400-450 seats in a jwy legacy configuration while a380 in a similar configuration was around 500-550. I simply think the market for these VLA's is not as good as it used to be because these planes used to be the only options to operate with the range needed, but as smaller aircraft get longer ranges the number of seats needed on a hub to hub route becomes a smaller portion of the seats in any given market.



I think you know that the 777-9 is smaller than the 747-400 in term of capacity.
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Thu Jun 11, 2020 8:07 am

VV wrote:
dstblj52 wrote:
...
Just about everyone is ballparking the 777X-9 at 400-450 seats in a jwy legacy configuration while a380 in a similar configuration was around 500-550. I simply think the market for these VLA's is not as good as it used to be because these planes used to be the only options to operate with the range needed, but as smaller aircraft get longer ranges the number of seats needed on a hub to hub route becomes a smaller portion of the seats in any given market.



I think you know that the 777-9 is smaller than the 747-400 in term of capacity.

I referred to 400-450 in a business premium economy economy configuration J (business) W (premium economy) Y (Economy). Mostly because Lufthansa provides the most information on their 777X configuration but seriously the 747-400 is a good example of what happened when it was knee nothing else had the range to do the routes it could do, but as smaller aircraft came out that could make the same routes work from smaller hubs or even hub to spoke it's importance has been reduced, I thought the A380 was silly and I still think the 777X is going to run into the same issues heck the customer list looks very similar and we're going into another air travel recession so I expect it will suffer a similar rate.
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Thu Jun 11, 2020 9:53 am

dstblj52 wrote:
VV wrote:
....
I think you know that the 777-9 is smaller than the 747-400 in term of capacity.

I referred to 400-450 in a business premium economy economy configuration J (business) W (premium economy) Y (Economy). Mostly because Lufthansa provides the most information on their 777X configuration but seriously the 747-400 is a good example of what happened when it was knee nothing else had the range to do the routes it could do, but as smaller aircraft came out that could make the same routes work from smaller hubs or even hub to spoke it's importance has been reduced, I thought the A380 was silly and I still think the 777X is going to run into the same issues heck the customer list looks very similar and we're going into another air travel recession so I expect it will suffer a similar rate.



I think you know that the 777-9 is tens of percent more efficient than the 747-400.
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:10 am

VV wrote:
dstblj52 wrote:
VV wrote:
....
I think you know that the 777-9 is smaller than the 747-400 in term of capacity.

I referred to 400-450 in a business premium economy economy configuration J (business) W (premium economy) Y (Economy). Mostly because Lufthansa provides the most information on their 777X configuration but seriously the 747-400 is a good example of what happened when it was knee nothing else had the range to do the routes it could do, but as smaller aircraft came out that could make the same routes work from smaller hubs or even hub to spoke it's importance has been reduced, I thought the A380 was silly and I still think the 777X is going to run into the same issues heck the customer list looks very similar and we're going into another air travel recession so I expect it will suffer a similar rate.



I think you know that the 777-9 is tens of percent more efficient than the 747-400.

Yes and a 747 is paid for your point airlines have been kicking them to the curb for a while because they don't need planes that big
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:36 am

dstblj52 wrote:
VV wrote:
dstblj52 wrote:
I referred to 400-450 in a business premium economy economy configuration J (business) W (premium economy) Y (Economy). Mostly because Lufthansa provides the most information on their 777X configuration but seriously the 747-400 is a good example of what happened when it was knee nothing else had the range to do the routes it could do, but as smaller aircraft came out that could make the same routes work from smaller hubs or even hub to spoke it's importance has been reduced, I thought the A380 was silly and I still think the 777X is going to run into the same issues heck the customer list looks very similar and we're going into another air travel recession so I expect it will suffer a similar rate.



I think you know that the 777-9 is tens of percent more efficient than the 747-400.

Yes and a 747 is paid for your point airlines have been kicking them to the curb for a while because they don't need planes that big

I think it’s more to do with it’s inefficiency than it’s size to be honest. It’s a 4 engines aircraft, they’re not efficient. I’ve never heard an airline say we are retiring the 747 because it’s too big
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:16 am

dstblj52 wrote:
VV wrote:
....
I think you know that the 777-9 is tens of percent more efficient than the 747-400.

Yes and a 747 is paid for your point airlines have been kicking them to the curb for a while because they don't need planes that big


I think you know that the 747-400 (the latest and biggest 747 before 747-8) has been around for many years and they are quite old.

In addition 777-9 and 777-8, whatever the firm configuration of the latter is, are both tens of percent more efficient than the 747 (any version).

What is your point exactly?
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Fri Jun 12, 2020 1:52 pm

This strikes me as a move made from desperation.

The 777x passenger jet program is languishing. Following the strategy Boeing used with the 747-8, they are attempting to use the cargo business to keep the line alive. Given that the 777 is so heavy, it is well suited to freighter usage.
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:00 pm

SteelChair wrote:
This strikes me as a move made from desperation.

The 777x passenger jet program is languishing. Following the strategy Boeing used with the 747-8, they are attempting to use the cargo business to keep the line alive. Given that the 777 is so heavy, it is well suited to freighter usage.


Link that the program is languishing or that any orders have been officially cancelled? Otherwise your post is pure wet dream.
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:02 pm

SteelChair wrote:
This strikes me as a move made from desperation.

The 777x passenger jet program is languishing. Following the strategy Boeing used with the 747-8, they are attempting to use the cargo business to keep the line alive. Given that the 777 is so heavy, it is well suited to freighter usage.

This is so incorrect. Given 1. There’s no 777XF actually and secondly the 747-8 was first launched with the freighter than the passenger version came afterwards. So sorry try again
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:35 pm

In fact we caught Boeing silently increase the 778's MTOW. As on the original data on Boe's brochure or Wikipedia, we saw that the 778 had a MTOW of 775 000 lb | 351 534 kg (same with 779):
Image

However, last few months Bamboo Airways had a talk with Boeing for a dozen of 777X. And this is a poster that Boeing had given to QH and us:
Image
@cafef.vn

788 000lb, even heavier than the 779. With this MTOW, the 778F can truly become a monster. Besides that, as the 777F has higher MTOW than the pax-77L, we can expect that the 778F can even has higher weight.
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Bricktop
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:00 pm

SteelChair wrote:
This strikes me as a move made from desperation.

The 777x passenger jet program is languishing. Following the strategy Boeing used with the 747-8, they are attempting to use the cargo business to keep the line alive. Given that the 777 is so heavy, it is well suited to freighter usage.

Desperation? More like "what's next?". Engineering-wise, he 779 is virtually finished. It makes complete sense to move to the next project being a freighter. They are going to want to bag the existing 777 product which is now almost exclusively for the 777F.
 
744SPX
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:33 pm

Antaras wrote:
In fact we caught Boeing silently increase the 778's MTOW. As on the original data on Boe's brochure or Wikipedia, we saw that the 778 had a MTOW of 775 000 lb | 351 534 kg (same with 779):
Image

However, last few months Bamboo Airways had a talk with Boeing for a dozen of 777X. And this is a poster that Boeing had given to QH and us:
Image
@cafef.vn

788 000lb, even heavier than the 779. With this MTOW, the 778F can truly become a monster. Besides that, as the 777F has higher MTOW than the pax-77L, we can expect that the 778F can even has higher weight.



That's the most interesting thing I've seen in a while. How did that fly under the radar. Amazing as the 772LR/F has a MTOW 9000 lbs less than the 300ER. Now they are flipping positions. That definitely makes the 8X freighter an even better proposition, but I still think they need to shrink it a bit, if not all the way down to -200 size. Still sacrificing too much payload/range for extra volume/pax.
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:41 pm

744SPX wrote:
How did that fly under the radar.

In fact that picture was just an "internal" document between Boeing and Bamboo. However somehow Bamboo "accidentally" send that picture to the newspaper and asked the picture to be removed from every posts. However I copied the link of that picture from a reputable Vietnamese article (somehow the picture is removed from the article but not from the database, so the url is still alive).

And now once more time I public that picture here. You are welcome.

P/s: might there be some more modification that Boe didn't want to public that picture?

but I still think they need to shrink it a bit, if not all the way down to -200 size.


I agree that the 778 is a little bit too big. The size of the 772/78X/359 would be ok.
Its current size just make itself an oddball between the playground of the 359/78X and 35K/77W.
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Opus99
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:56 pm

Antaras wrote:
In fact we caught Boeing silently increase the 778's MTOW. As on the original data on Boe's brochure or Wikipedia, we saw that the 778 had a MTOW of 775 000 lb | 351 534 kg (same with 779):
Image

However, last few months Bamboo Airways had a talk with Boeing for a dozen of 777X. And this is a poster that Boeing had given to QH and us:
Image
@cafef.vn

788 000lb, even heavier than the 779. With this MTOW, the 778F can truly become a monster. Besides that, as the 777F has higher MTOW than the pax-77L, we can expect that the 778F can even has higher weight.

oh wow, I'm assuming this also means the 779 has the ability to go up to 788,000lb?
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Fri Jun 12, 2020 4:10 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Antaras wrote:
In fact we caught Boeing silently increase the 778's MTOW. As on the original data on Boe's brochure or Wikipedia, we saw that the 778 had a MTOW of 775 000 lb | 351 534 kg (same with 779):
Image

However, last few months Bamboo Airways had a talk with Boeing for a dozen of 777X. And this is a poster that Boeing had given to QH and us:
Image
@cafef.vn

788 000lb, even heavier than the 779. With this MTOW, the 778F can truly become a monster. Besides that, as the 777F has higher MTOW than the pax-77L, we can expect that the 778F can even has higher weight.

oh wow, I'm assuming this also means the 779 has the ability to go up to 788,000lb?


As the 778 is still in designing phase (as mentioned "no official config published"), Boe might upgrade anything that it want. The key to 778's MTOW upgrade is might be something that Boeing could not develop while developing the 779.

And there is a real chance for that increased-mtow 779. Might be a compulsory upgrade (just like the max8 in 2022 with longer range), or for a ER-ver
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Fri Jun 12, 2020 4:32 pm

Didn't one of our posters (Matt64...?) suggest the problem with the 778 as a freighter is it is awfully heavy, and most cargo fights are less than 4000 miles? They can stop and refuel, packages don't need non-stops. The X as a freighter shines only if it is used to deliver well over that 4000 miles. Otherwise it is carrying too much structural weight that is not needed for most routes.
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VV
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:47 pm

788,000 lb?

It must be a typo.
However, if it is one then you need to wonder what's going on in Boeing.
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Fri Jun 12, 2020 6:23 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Didn't one of our posters (Matt64...?) suggest the problem with the 778 as a freighter is it is awfully heavy, and most cargo fights are less than 4000 miles? They can stop and refuel, packages don't need non-stops. The X as a freighter shines only if it is used to deliver well over that 4000 miles. Otherwise it is carrying too much structural weight that is not needed for most routes.

chicken&egg though... it could easily be argued that longhaul cargo flights have their current limit due to the inability of most aircraft to fly much longer at without sacrificing payload for fuel.

If you're volume limited and have the weight capability, why not use if for the extra fuel and position the aircraft as a range monster at payload? A niche, sure, but likely some time-sensitive buyers who might want it.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Fri Jun 12, 2020 6:25 pm

lightsaber wrote:
2. A35K structure at A359 length or so.

If so as a freighter, then we're also potentially back to the A359XR proposal... which likely would've been a 10,500nm+ pax aircraft if produced.

Maybe Airbus' ace card to Boeing, if the latter indeed produces a 357T 778X?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
SteelChair
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Sat Jun 13, 2020 1:39 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
This strikes me as a move made from desperation.

The 777x passenger jet program is languishing. Following the strategy Boeing used with the 747-8, they are attempting to use the cargo business to keep the line alive. Given that the 777 is so heavy, it is well suited to freighter usage.


Link that the program is languishing or that any orders have been officially cancelled? Otherwise your post is pure wet dream.


Does this meet your criterion?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.co ... 1574251915

International travel right now is crushed by Covid-19. The order book contains orders from Etihad, Qatar, and of course Cathay Pacific. Even before C19, there was nothing going on in HKG was there? LH has, accordting to wiki, shifted 14 slots from orders to options. The orderbook is very soft.

It doesn't take a genius to see that widebody products are languishing. It is estimated that the market will not recover for at least 2-3 years due to Covid-19.
Last edited by SteelChair on Sat Jun 13, 2020 1:52 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Sat Jun 13, 2020 1:48 pm

Opus99 wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
This strikes me as a move made from desperation.

The 777x passenger jet program is languishing. Following the strategy Boeing used with the 747-8, they are attempting to use the cargo business to keep the line alive. Given that the 777 is so heavy, it is well suited to freighter usage.

This is so incorrect. Given 1. There’s no 777XF actually and secondly the 747-8 was first launched with the freighter than the passenger version came afterwards. So sorry try again


It's not incorrect that the 747-8 frieghter is the only 747 model in production.

It is not incorrect that the 777x EIS has been pushed back, the orderbook is soft, and the program has lost orders.

Many international carriers that "should" be customers have not placed orders. The A380 and the 747-8i are ending or have already ended production. The world doesn't seem to want big, heavy, commercial airplanes. Even the lighter 787, A350, and A330 have seen significant production rate cuts.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Sat Jun 13, 2020 1:57 pm

lightsaber wrote:
All the rumors are for a custom length a little longer than the 778 with custom structure to increase payload. Obviously an increase in OEW would result.
.....

I see many posts here saying drop the 778. However, for long haul where field performance is of concern, there will be no competition unless the 788 is considered competition. I'm not saying huge sales, but incremental sales.


If the 778F is going to a "little longer" length, could the deferral of 778 PAX development be to test the PAX market for a model based on the new "little longer" F length? Otherwise Boeing could end up manufacturing 3 lengths, which surely negates the argument that 778 PAX sales will generate much "incremental" benefit.
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Sat Jun 13, 2020 2:21 pm

workhorse wrote:

The majority doesn't need the 777-8 at all. Even the 777-9 is a niche product now. The freighter will have a tough time as well because there will be hundreds of 77Ws available for conversion that will be flooding the market. Boeing's main concern right now should be how to spend the less money possible on this program that will struggle to recover its costs.

The 777-9 is almost ready now, so they have no choice but to finish it.

The freighter might help to recover some of the costs so it's probably worth being done but its fuselage length must be a compromise between costs of development/production and efficiency. If it is possible to keep the -9's fuselage length and still have a decent freighter then go for it, keep as much commonality as possible.

The 777-8 should be canceled outright.


I’m not so sure that we will see a flood of 777-300ER freighter conversions dominating the long haul freight market. The 777-300ER will do well for low density freight such as packaged express freight. It doesn’t have enough payload to carry a full load the denser heavy freight that 747-8Fs and 777-200LRFs can carry. There is demand for densely packaged heavy freight (produce, flowers, fish, pharmaceuticals, electronics, drilling equipment, etc) that a new build freighter is better suited to carry.
 
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Sat Jun 13, 2020 2:38 pm

smartplane wrote:
More to do with internal Boeing dialogue and positioning, than material customer interest / demand.


I don’t understand. The business to consumer freighter operators are the only airlines making money right now. Freighters are being pulled out of the desert. It makes perfect sense to be focusing on FedEx/UPS/DHL.

SteelChair wrote:
This strikes me as a move made from desperation.


Is it desperation to build an airplane that your most profitable customers want? For example, the 767 production rate is now higher than the A330 production rate due to freighter demand.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Sat Jun 13, 2020 3:07 pm

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
I’m not so sure that we will see a flood of 777-300ER freighter conversions dominating the long haul freight market. The 777-300ER will do well for low density freight such as packaged express freight. It doesn’t have enough payload to carry a full load the denser heavy freight that 747-8Fs and 777-200LRFs can carry. There is demand for densely packaged heavy freight (produce, flowers, fish, pharmaceuticals, electronics, drilling equipment, etc) that a new build freighter is better suited to carry.

FIFY!

I guess we're all circulating around the question "how big is the new build freighter market?" and no one knows for sure.

I think we shall see the 773F become a market force, just like we've seen converted 763Fs become a market force.

I'm not sure I'd use the word "dominate", but I could see over time there being two 773F conversions for every one 772F/778F new build.

If not that, at least 1:1 parity.

I see demand for e-commerce doing nothing but rising, and there is so much 77W feed stock it's IMO inevitable that the conversion market will be strong.

Certainly enough to require Boeing to give strong consideration to 773F impact on 778F.

I think we're on parity for 767 factory new vs conversion, no? The factory is at 2.5/month heading for 3, but a big slice of that is tankers.
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Opus99
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Sat Jun 13, 2020 3:18 pm

SteelChair wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
This strikes me as a move made from desperation.

The 777x passenger jet program is languishing. Following the strategy Boeing used with the 747-8, they are attempting to use the cargo business to keep the line alive. Given that the 777 is so heavy, it is well suited to freighter usage.

This is so incorrect. Given 1. There’s no 777XF actually and secondly the 747-8 was first launched with the freighter than the passenger version came afterwards. So sorry try again


It's not incorrect that the 747-8 frieghter is the only 747 model in production.

It is not incorrect that the 777x EIS has been pushed back, the orderbook is soft, and the program has lost orders.

Many international carriers that "should" be customers have not placed orders. The A380 and the 747-8i are ending or have already ended production. The world doesn't seem to want big, heavy, commercial airplanes. Even the lighter 787, A350, and A330 have seen significant production rate cuts.

Everything you’ve said here is not what you said in your previous post. You said they are following the strategy of the 747-8, using the fact that the freighter version or “cargo” is being used to keep the line alive. Urm? But there isn’t even a cargo version of the 777X so that argument was already flawed from that point but you’re now trying your best to save the argument. I respect that lol.

As for everything else you’ve said, you can join the rest of the pack making the exact same point. Court documents show A new 777X is expected this month, but of course nobody wants it.
 
VV
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Sat Jun 13, 2020 3:29 pm

Let us make some speculation here.

When you look carefully into the 777-300ERSF brochure (click here) you can see that the maximum cargo density that the aircraft can carry corresponds to parcels.

The aircraft is not good enough for general cargo operator like UPS or Fedex or even other airlines like Qatar or Turkish.

It is very likely the guys in Boeing are clever enough to define a 777-8F with a maximum net cargo density of about 9.7 lb/cu.ft such that it fulfills the needs of UPS, Fedex, DHL and others.
Basically I am saying that they will define the right MZFW and fuselage size that match the criteria.

It would be a total madness to define the 777-8F that does not respond to the needs of those cargo operators.

So I can say with a certainty that the 777-300ERSF is not a threat to the 777-8F.
And by the way the configuration of the 777-8 is not firmed yet.
 
SteelChair
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Sat Jun 13, 2020 4:17 pm

Opus99 wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
This is so incorrect. Given 1. There’s no 777XF actually and secondly the 747-8 was first launched with the freighter than the passenger version came afterwards. So sorry try again


It's not incorrect that the 747-8 frieghter is the only 747 model in production.

It is not incorrect that the 777x EIS has been pushed back, the orderbook is soft, and the program has lost orders.

Many international carriers that "should" be customers have not placed orders. The A380 and the 747-8i are ending or have already ended production. The world doesn't seem to want big, heavy, commercial airplanes. Even the lighter 787, A350, and A330 have seen significant production rate cuts.

Everything you’ve said here is not what you said in your previous post. You said they are following the strategy of the 747-8, using the fact that the freighter version or “cargo” is being used to keep the line alive. Urm? But there isn’t even a cargo version of the 777X so that argument was already flawed from that point but you’re now trying your best to save the argument. I respect that lol.

As for everything else you’ve said, you can join the rest of the pack making the exact same point. Court documents show A new 777X is expected this month, but of course nobody wants it.


Perhaps I worded it poorly. Boeing is looking ahead, seeing that the 777 line is not selling well, and is pursuing the freighter version with a view to keeping the line open in the future. And the 777 is well suited tp freighter operation. I thi k that the 777xf has a chance at success.

I know it isn't here yet.
 
VV
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Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

Sat Jun 13, 2020 7:42 pm

VV wrote:
Let us make some speculation here.

When you look carefully into the 777-300ERSF brochure (click here) you can see that the maximum cargo density that the aircraft can carry corresponds to parcels.

The aircraft is not good enough for general cargo operator like UPS or Fedex or even other airlines like Qatar or Turkish.

It is very likely the guys in Boeing are clever enough to define a 777-8F with a maximum net cargo density of about 9.7 lb/cu.ft such that it fulfills the needs of UPS, Fedex, DHL and others.
Basically I am saying that they will define the right MZFW and fuselage size that match the criteria.

It would be a total madness to define the 777-8F that does not respond to the needs of those cargo operators.

So I can say with a certainty that the 777-300ERSF is not a threat to the 777-8F.
And by the way the configuration of the 777-8 is not firmed yet.


Just to make sure you guys understand.

According to the above mentioned brochure,
  • maximum structural payload of the 777-300ERSF is 222,000 lb.
  • total volume is 28,936 ft3

Let us give the benefit of the tare.
The maximum cargo density would be 222,000 lb/28,936 ft3 = 7.7 lb/ft3
It is in the ballpark of the density of parcels.

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