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SteveXC500
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Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 4:38 pm

Re: OAG Changes for 6/14/2020:THE CALM BEFORE?;DL Grows Europe, Closes Stations;NK Attacks BOS-BWI;AS Adds MRY-SEA

Mon Jun 15, 2020 2:50 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
SteveXC500 wrote:
enilria wrote:
**DL LNK-MSP AUG 3>0[3] SEP 3>0[3] OCT 3>0[3] NOV 3>0[3] DEC 3>0[2] JAN 3>0[3] FEB 3>0[3] MAR 3>0[3] APR 3>0[3]


Well, this was supposed to be temporary, but it sure looks permanent. This would make for a perm closure of LNK by DL as they already dropped ATL. Only UA flies DEN and ORD out of LNK.

Can anyone confirm if this is truly permanent?

They have removed the flights for sale through the end of schedule in the affected markets but that does not necessarily mean it is a permanent station closure.
DL has not publically indicated anything one way or another but I don't think they are going to be too quick to render stations "permanently" closed until they get better data on how demand continues to recover.
As covered in some of the other threads, many of these markets seem like they should return, particularly a market like BGR & ASE where the tourism, national parks, and ski resorts will see their demand return in the seasons ahead. Markets like LNK, FNT, CAK are also likely to return. Its not like the University of Nebraska is going away.

There could be something contractual and/or employment related with why or how they pulled everything from the future schedules.

Now, if you see them remove all signage from check-in counters and gate areas that isn't a good sign. If I were the airport director at these places, I'd certainly want them to keep that stuff up on the wish/hope/prayer they come back.

Nothing is ever permanent in this industry......


Thanks. That makes sense, for sure. I fly MSP-LNK a few times per year...blasted CRJ but its almost ALWAYS full. UNL certainly uses DL quite a bit.
 
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tb727
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Re: OAG Changes for 6/14/2020:THE CALM BEFORE?;DL Grows Europe, Closes Stations;NK Attacks BOS-BWI;AS Adds MRY-SEA

Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:08 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
While a lot may be European leisure, VFR travel is what is really driving the increase, which is good for US-Europe demand. In other words a sizable amount of demand for people who, by August, have been stuck abroad for almost half a year & now feel it is safe to return.

At 3x weekly & reopened economies, inbound VFR is likely enough to fill large O&D airports like FCO, MAD, & BCN especially with competition way down.

Looking at Italy specifically, refunds are way down, and purchases are climbing

None of that changes the fact that travel restriction is in place. Maybe they think it will be eased by then. If there is no easing by mid July, I think they will get pushed back again. I wouldn't take any international schedule more than a month out that seriously at the moment.


Spain is reopening to overseas visitors in July.....
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -from-july

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:


NK's network planning team was given the green light to do everything and anything apparently

I don't see that last. I'm thinking this is probably a filing error. A route that depends on a combination of business travel and connection traffic is not exactly the kind of stuff that needs 150% additional traffic in this type of market.


Well its in google flights as 5x daily....


I didn't think it was right but looking at the website, mid August sure enough it's 4 daily between BWI-BOS. It used to be a really early am flight and a late pm flight, now a couple mid day added. Interesting.
Too lazy to work, too scared to steal!
 
Miamiairport
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Re: OAG Changes for 6/14/2020:THE CALM BEFORE?;DL Grows Europe, Closes Stations;NK Attacks BOS-BWI;AS Adds MRY-SEA

Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:41 pm

BWI/BOS is strange for 4X. At least in May hotels in Boston were only accepting essential travelers and were requiring documentation. I grew up in Maryland and I don't know of any heavy BOS/Maryland/DC heavy links in the way you would see NJ/NY-FL.
 
CRJ5000
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Re: OAG Changes for 6/14/2020:THE CALM BEFORE?;DL Grows Europe, Closes Stations;NK Attacks BOS-BWI;AS Adds MRY-SEA

Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:08 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
BWI/BOS is strange for 4X. At least in May hotels in Boston were only accepting essential travelers and were requiring documentation. I grew up in Maryland and I don't know of any heavy BOS/Maryland/DC heavy links in the way you would see NJ/NY-FL.


Seems like overkill for sure. I'm guessing they didn't think they could fill a bunch of flights from BOS to a lot of destinations, and probably not from BWI either, so this way they can sell connecting flights out of BOS instead and combine the traffic. Nearly every route I searched for from BOS in August connects in BWI.
 
ScottB
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Re: OAG Changes for 6/14/2020:THE CALM BEFORE?;DL Grows Europe, Closes Stations;NK Attacks BOS-BWI;AS Adds MRY-SEA

Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:38 pm

aaflyer777 wrote:
**NK BOS-BWI AUG 1.9>5[2] SEP 1.8>5[1.8] OCT 1.7>5[1.7] NOV 1.8>5[1.9] DEC 1.0>2[1.0]

Good way to use aircraft as its a relatively short flight and I would guess most of these flights continue on to Florida. Also taking advantage of the fact that B6 has suspended BWI and WN is down to something like 2x daily.


BOS-BWI is 5x daily on WN right now, but it might have gone that low during the worst of the lockdown. I do agree that this may be targeting B6 given that they chose to suspend BWI. NK may see an opportunity to squeeze B6 out of the airport pair; it's not entirely far-fetched considering B6 closed IAD to focus on DCA even pre-Covid. WN is extremely unlikely to abandon BWI-BOS short of closing the BOS station altogether.

Miamiairport wrote:
I don't know of any heavy BOS/Maryland/DC heavy links in the way you would see NJ/NY-FL.


BOS-WAS, in normal circumstances, is one of the densest air travel markets in the U.S. between the three airports on either end at #9 nationally. WAS (DCA/BWI/IAD) is the largest air travel market out of BOS/PVD/MHT combined by a country mile; it's about 60% larger than Chicago which is second. And the trio of BOS/PVD/MHT is the largest market from WAS at about a third larger than #2 Los Angeles. Boston and Washington/Baltimore are two of the ten largest metropolitan regions; they're far enough apart that ground transportation options (rail, bus, driving, covered wagon) are unattractive compared to flying.

tphuang wrote:
As for Europe, I am of the understanding that the schengen zone as a whole was thinking of extending a ban of foreign visitors until end of September.


To the best of my knowledge, the EU/European Commission makes recommendations to the member states regarding travel restrictions but implementation is left to those states. Now, other states might choose to put borders back up with a non-compliant state but that's a different matter.

Chuska wrote:
JetSuite X (doesn't report to the OAG) announced MRY to BUR and SNA will now start on July 2 (delayed from Apr 17). Also announced some brand new routes: LAS to DAL effective June 19, and DAL and HPN to Pinehurst (SOP) effective June 25.


If I had to guess, LAS-DAL is partly a bridging flight to get aircraft and crews over for charters to/from SOP. The flights to SOP don't seem bookable on their own so I guess they're only being sold as part of a package. You can buy the DAL-LAS flights alone but the rooms at the Wynn look to be almost free (under $50/night) on top of the airfare.
 
airplaneboy
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Re: OAG Changes for 6/14/2020:THE CALM BEFORE?;DL Grows Europe, Closes Stations;NK Attacks BOS-BWI;AS Adds MRY-SEA

Tue Jun 16, 2020 7:40 am

aaflyer777 wrote:
**NK BOS-BWI AUG 1.9>5[2] SEP 1.8>5[1.8] OCT 1.7>5[1.7] NOV 1.8>5[1.9] DEC 1.0>2[1.0]

Good way to use aircraft as its a relatively short flight and I would guess most of these flights continue on to Florida. Also taking advantage of the fact that B6 has suspended BWI and WN is down to something like 2x daily.


Looks like WN is responding. Starting on August 11th, they ramp up to 10 frequencies on BOS-BWI, and 11 frequencies on August 13th. From that point on, the weekday frequencies are 11 daily, Saturdays have 7 frequencies, and Sundays have 10.
 
PVD523
Posts: 36
Joined: Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:01 am

Re: OAG Changes for 6/14/2020:THE CALM BEFORE?;DL Grows Europe, Closes Stations;NK Attacks BOS-BWI;AS Adds MRY-SEA

Tue Jun 16, 2020 8:17 am

airplaneboy wrote:
aaflyer777 wrote:
**NK BOS-BWI AUG 1.9>5[2] SEP 1.8>5[1.8] OCT 1.7>5[1.7] NOV 1.8>5[1.9] DEC 1.0>2[1.0]

Good way to use aircraft as its a relatively short flight and I would guess most of these flights continue on to Florida. Also taking advantage of the fact that B6 has suspended BWI and WN is down to something like 2x daily.


Looks like WN is responding. Starting on August 11th, they ramp up to 10 frequencies on BOS-BWI, and 11 frequencies on August 13th. From that point on, the weekday frequencies are 11 daily, Saturdays have 7 frequencies, and Sundays have 10.


I believe WN schedules after August 10th are just placeholders. The MAX still appears in schedules after the 10th and PVD-BWI is still bookable at that time at 8x daily, which I can guarantee won't be flown.
 
airplaneboy
Posts: 719
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 11:59 am

Re: OAG Changes for 6/14/2020:THE CALM BEFORE?;DL Grows Europe, Closes Stations;NK Attacks BOS-BWI;AS Adds MRY-SEA

Tue Jun 16, 2020 8:40 am

PVD523 wrote:
airplaneboy wrote:
aaflyer777 wrote:
**NK BOS-BWI AUG 1.9>5[2] SEP 1.8>5[1.8] OCT 1.7>5[1.7] NOV 1.8>5[1.9] DEC 1.0>2[1.0]

Good way to use aircraft as its a relatively short flight and I would guess most of these flights continue on to Florida. Also taking advantage of the fact that B6 has suspended BWI and WN is down to something like 2x daily.


Looks like WN is responding. Starting on August 11th, they ramp up to 10 frequencies on BOS-BWI, and 11 frequencies on August 13th. From that point on, the weekday frequencies are 11 daily, Saturdays have 7 frequencies, and Sundays have 10.


I believe WN schedules after August 10th are just placeholders. The MAX still appears in schedules after the 10th and PVD-BWI is still bookable at that time at 8x daily, which I can guarantee won't be flown.


https://www.swamedia.com/releases/relea ... jan-4-2021

WN recently extended their booking window to January 4th. There are some additional routes announced in this press release, but I think there are many frequency adjustments and route cuts that didn’t get highlighted. Nothing about placeholders - other than WN plans to adjust supply with demand based on the operating environment. Despite the routes that are being cut, customers can still travel between most 2 WN destinations with a stopover/through flight service, or a connection thanks to their vast network of focus cities and point to point flying. Come August, if NK increases their BOS-BWI frequency to 4x as published, then I don’t see why WN wouldn’t attempt to maintain some of the new additional frequencies to compete. I don’t think WN published their schedule with the intention to cancel. It’s a gamble they’re willing to take to gain marketshare while opportunity exists (like NK is doing). Granted, if market conditions begin to decline again - then WN can make easy adjustments to maintain network connectivity with reductions in frequencies and leaving other low margin point to point flying available through connections instead.

This is such a dynamic situation and demand is still very fragile and unpredictable. Look at some of the Hawaii flying WN attempted to start/restart this month (like OGG-SMF/SJC, HNL-SAN, etc.) Those flights were published and tickets sold, only to be canceled after Hawaii Governor Ige extended the mandatory 14-day quarantine for all arriving visitors. Every flight that’s bookable is a placeholder then, because nobody knows what demand will look like for quite sometime (not at least until next year). This is the first time in modern history that airlines cannot forecast demand. What WN appears to be doing is making adjustments to their pre-Covid schedule and shifting capacity to different markets to capture marketshare while their competitors have largely cut back. By publishing such an ambitious schedule, they are probably trying to gauge where the booking demand actually is (since they are the largest carrier of domestic passengers) and seeing where the chips fall. If a second wave hits or the economy tanks even more, then they can make further adjustments as necessary. This isn’t something new for them. They’ve had to deal with uncertainty in capacity availability with the MAX situation and as such, they’ve become quite familiar and comfortable with last minute schedule adjustments.

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