Seeing the growth in traffic nationally hitting over 20% week over week, where is "the wall"? What is the maximum level of capacity the airlines can bring back given permanent retirements the airlines have made?

For Delta, for example, what % of seats can't come back from pre-COVID levels? 10%? 20%? 30%?

AA-757, 767,E190, 333, and the 332s are stored till at least 2022 probably won’t come back at all.

I think the wall is about 70%. Most of the larger carriers are planning to be around that size compared to their pre-Covid size by next summer.

All DL has officially retired thus far are the MD-88s and MD-90s, and the 772s/77Ls, I believe. They had less than 50 MDs active before coronavirus, IIRC... And 18 777s.

DL not much yet....they can probably bring back nearly 100% of their domestic flying. The question becomes though how much do they want to spend/invest on aircraft that are approaching heavy maintenance checks. The scenarios aren't about Summer 2020 peak flying since we are in the time that would be peak and even with the increases we are seeing this month for June, there are really only about 8 weeks of traditional "peak summer" flying / travel season remaining so they have more than enough aircraft to get them at least until March 2021 under even the most overzealous scenario.

MD88 were really only planned to be around for peak summer 2020 flying and then a quick draw-down starting in Sept with full retirement by end of 2020. This capacity was already scheduled to come out this year and be replaced by new aircraft deliveries.
MD90 the small fleet of ~27 aircraft was going to be around, in theory through 2022, but with a fleet the size of DL they have a lot of levers to pull to offset this capacity either through increased utilization of other aircraft, upgauging, or just keeping frames in other fleets around a bit longer. The capacity lost here is really just noise.

B77E/B77L well this is a bit more tricky depending on how things envolve and A339 & A359 deliveries resume, and/or whatever is going on with LATAM. None have been permenantly removed from service but a good portion are still in storage. Do they need them for Summer 2021? Probably not. The question is what does the fleet look like for Summer 2022-2025?

Everything else is frames in storage that could all be reactivated at this point. The question also becomes what does the future delivery schedule look like for the A220, A321CEO, A321NEO, A339, A359s and how to those get stretched out......

Boof02671 wrote:

AA-757, 767,E190, 333, and the 332s are stored till at least 2022 probably won’t come back at all.

If DL can retire their fleet of 18 777s in favor of opening A350 bases in ATL and LAX, then I don’t see why AA shouldn’t retire their 15 A332s in favor of opening 777/787 bases in CLT and PHL. Also, now that the 767s are gone, the A332s have the most bland and outdated cabin in the entire AA widebody fleet. Just wish DL would now update their A330ceo interiors to match that of the A330neo.

I'd be surprised if the UAL PW B752s fly for UA again. Just my guess, of course.

enilria wrote:

Seeing the growth in traffic nationally hitting over 20% week over week, where is "the wall"? What is the maximum level of capacity the airlines can bring back given permanent retirements the airlines have made?

For Delta, for example, what % of seats can't come back from pre-COVID levels? 10%? 20%? 30%?

That's a two-phased problem. We know what got/gets retired early. We don't know what aircraft deliveries have been deferred. They've all talked about big short-term capex reductions but haven't been specific in terms of components of spending deferred/cancelled. I don't know that we'll see new delivery commitments until the annual reports come out in February. IIRC, UA has said it has no purchase obligations for 2022.

Just my opinion. Delta will be using up the green time on aircraft it had intended to retire within the next two years or so such as older A320s . Delta may do a good amount of relying on the A220 and 717 aircraft... They may keep the 717s until the leases are up and return them to Boeing.

NWAROOSTER wrote:

Just my opinion. Delta will be using up the green time on aircraft it had intended to retire within the next two years or so such as older A320s . Delta may do a good amount of relying on the A220 and 717 aircraft... They may keep the 717s until the leases are up and return them to Boeing.

Not sure what their plan is for the older 752s, but they could begin to retire those once the A32Ns and more A321s come online. Kinda like what they had planned on doing with the older 763s once more A33Ns came online.

Seeing as AA announced opening a 777 base in CLT and a 787 base in PHL I would guess that the possibility of the A332s returning to the fleet is slim to none.

They all would need to be refurbished (both seat and IFE-wise) before re-entering service, and I doubt AA would want to spend that kind of money on what is now a small, skeleton fleet from an economies of scale perspective given that the A333s are now retired.

While I love the A332s, and some of them are quite young (6 years IIRC) I just don't see the type having a future for AA.

N292UX wrote:

AA: 757/767, A333, E190, CRJ-200

AA had also retired its last MD-80 planes in September 2019, and AA had 769 mainline narrowbody planes in service (excluding the 737 MAX) a year ago compared to 721 mainline narrowbody planes currently in service (excluding the 737 MAX).

AA will also probably never bring back the MD-80 planes into service again with AA having already retired its last MD-80's in September 2019.

American- 757, 767, E190, CRJ200, A330-300s, A330-200s (A332s long term storage till 2022, likelihood coming back unknown.) There is a rumor that they could accelerate 777 retirements, though I'm not sure. But more 787 orders can maybe see them be retired.
United- 757, 767, most likely domestic 777s, older 50 seaters. Other planes that may be cut down, not fully retired, might include older A320s/737NGs
Delta- Mad dogs, 777s, and then planes that would either be cut down or retired completely 757, 767, 717, A320-200. The big question marks I'm putting are near the A319s and 738's. DL actively said that they'd fly the 738s to 30yrs but now I'm not sure. THe A319s is anyone's guess.

Boeing757100 wrote:

The big question marks I'm putting are near the A319s and 738's.

The 738s will continue to fly. It should tell you something that DL has zero of 62 A320s in service, and 44 of 77 738s among its midsize narrowbodies.

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Delta-Air-Lines

The operating economics (referring to CASM, specifically) of 319s aren't great but it beats flying 739s and 321s with a hundred empty seats.

Besides the fleet actions already announced by DL, every additional retirement is going to be airframe specific and not be pulling down entire fleet types en-mass.

Whether that accelerates the eventual retirement of the fleet type remains to be seen but there is unlikely to be any additional fleet types retired in the next few years. The notable exception being 717s which there is no certainty yet whether they will fly beyond 2022.

I think United has said the 767-400ER is under consideration due to it being a oddball fleet.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

Besides the fleet actions already announced by DL, every additional retirement is going to be airframe specific and not be pulling down entire fleet types en-mass.

Whether that accelerates the eventual retirement of the fleet type remains to be seen but there is unlikely to be any additional fleet types retired in the next few years. The notable exception being 717s which there is no certainty yet whether they will fly beyond 2022.

Clearly there are a lot of things to consider:
1) based on current traffic growth the country could be at 100% by mid-August...if the capacity was there to fly it.
2) Delta has committed to a 60% max LF till 9/30
3) Post-Summer is a huge question mark in terms of demand. Leisure fades. Will business traffic be there as usual? Probably not.
4) Will COVID coming back with the normal flu season kill demand again? Or will #3?
5) Will people fly home for the holidays and risk grandparents and parents?

Bottom line, it looks like to me the airlines will ignore the return of demand and limit capacity to no more than 50% by August including the empty middle seats which will actually constrain demand. We may see fares jump as a result.

Meanwhile the LCCs, WN/F9/NK will likely get to 100% in 3Q or 4Q. So, will we see these carriers that are not international feed or business dependent even sign up to take extra aircraft and grab markets?

[quote="Boeing757100"]
United- 757, 767, most likely domestic 777s, older 50 seaters. Other planes that may be cut down, not fully retired, might include older A320s/737NGs
/quote]

United hasn't retired anything yet and probably won't make it's plans clear for quite a while. Kirby is building as much flexibility as possible into UAs future plans so they are trying to hold onto everything and simply parking them until the aircraft are needed again. Now I do agree the PW 752s and lots of the 50 seat RJs are probably gonners but the rest is up in the air

enilria wrote:

1) based on current traffic growth the country could be at 100% by mid-August...if the capacity was there to fly it.

Based on last week's average of 17.6% of traffic of a year ago? Seriously? See the TSA stats 6/8-6/14. You think there's some miracle where traffic is going to hit 100% within the next eight weeks? With 21 states last week showing rising virus trends? https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/0 ... Position=1

Don't go with the deficient 'more people are being tested' argument. It's been debunked.

Vice President Mike Pence encouraged governors on Monday to adopt the administration’s claim that increased testing helps account for the new coronavirus outbreak reports, even though evidence has shown that the explanation is misleading.

In fact, seven-day averages in several states with outbreaks have increased since May 31, and in at least 14 states, the positive case rate is increasing faster than the increase in the average number of tests, according to an analysis of data collected by The New York Times.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/15/worl ... nk-9f8ca5e

enilria wrote:

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

Besides the fleet actions already announced by DL, every additional retirement is going to be airframe specific and not be pulling down entire fleet types en-mass.

Whether that accelerates the eventual retirement of the fleet type remains to be seen but there is unlikely to be any additional fleet types retired in the next few years. The notable exception being 717s which there is no certainty yet whether they will fly beyond 2022.

Clearly there are a lot of things to consider:
1) based on current traffic growth the country could be at 100% by mid-August...if the capacity was there to fly it.
2) Delta has committed to a 60% max LF till 9/30
3) Post-Summer is a huge question mark in terms of demand. Leisure fades. Will business traffic be there as usual? Probably not.
4) Will COVID coming back with the normal flu season kill demand again? Or will #3?
5) Will people fly home for the holidays and risk grandparents and parents?

Bottom line, it looks like to me the airlines will ignore the return of demand and limit capacity to no more than 50% by August including the empty middle seats which will actually constrain demand. We may see fares jump as a result.

Meanwhile the LCCs, WN/F9/NK will likely get to 100% in 3Q or 4Q. So, will we see these carriers that are not international feed or business dependent even sign up to take extra aircraft and grab markets?

1) No way, no how. It is feasibly impossible to get to 100% by August. There is no way the demand gets back to 100% by August.
- Leisure-wise; a lot of attractions are still not open or operating under significant capacity restrictions or guidelines; that is not changing in the next 3-6 months. Almost every large event including festivals, concerts, large crowds at sporting events isn't coming back in that timeframe. People do travel for these things.
- Business-wise; most large companies particularly those in large cities aren't planning to even get their white collar workforce back into the office until Sept. Business travel isn't coming back that quick as it takes a reason/purpose for travel, a traveler willing to travel, and a host willing to accept the visitor. Large conventions and trade shows have all been cancelled by and large for the rest of the year.

100% of domestic capacity or demand is in no way happening in August. Maybe if everything we to go right in theory next summer, but that is just not likely either. The demand isn't there. There has been massive economic carnage laid waste on the country that is going to impact the rest of the year into next year. Demand will probably climb pretty quick back to 50-60% and start to plateau from there. 75% by end of the year maybe, but its awhile to get back to 100% for everyone, particularly with business demand curve not even really getting started, and we all know leisure is going to fall off a cliff in about 8 weeks.

3) Big question mark, exactly. We are seeing leisure come back and also travel to/from states/cities that have a large transplant/transient population. No surprise that Florida demand came back first.

4) Who knows, not my area of expertise or worth even trying to speculate. Hard to sort out fact vs. fiction vs. Karens shouting from the mountaintops

5) To an extent yes, to an extent no. Too far out to be known the impact. Most certainly some people's risk profile is going to say no and not want to travel. The other big thing happening here in the US is that most major universities that are planning to go back on campus this fall are adjusting their semester schedules. Many are going to end in-person learning prior to Thanksgiving and not return until January. They plan to go to remote learning for December. That may factor demand differently into and around Thanksgiving.

Keep in mind, that while the ULCC and LCC target markets are likely coming back faster and stronger, the US3 are also going to be able to try to go after these markets as well. Since business demand is going to be depressed well into 2021, they have the resources to ramp-up capacity into leisure markets just much if they desire. They will have the airplanes to do so if they wish.

NateGreat wrote:

Boof02671 wrote:

AA-757, 767,E190, 333, and the 332s are stored till at least 2022 probably won’t come back at all.

If DL can retire their fleet of 18 777s in favor of opening A350 bases in ATL and LAX, then I don’t see why AA shouldn’t retire their 15 A332s in favor of opening 777/787 bases in CLT and PHL. Also, now that the 767s are gone, the A332s have the most bland and outdated cabin in the entire AA widebody fleet. Just wish DL would now update their A330ceo interiors to match that of the A330neo.

They are opening a 777 base in CLT, they had a 777 here for several weeks for training ramp, maintenance and gate fit checks. PHL will be getting a 787 base or has one now I don’t know if they pushed it back or not

USAirALB wrote:

Seeing as AA announced opening a 777 base in CLT and a 787 base in PHL I would guess that the possibility of the A332s returning to the fleet is slim to none.

They all would need to be refurbished (both seat and IFE-wise) before re-entering service, and I doubt AA would want to spend that kind of money on what is now a small, skeleton fleet from an economies of scale perspective given that the A333s are now retired.

While I love the A332s, and some of them are quite young (6 years IIRC) I just don't see the type having a future for AA.

I believe the oldest is 9 to 11 years.

Boof02671 wrote:

USAirALB wrote:

Seeing as AA announced opening a 777 base in CLT and a 787 base in PHL I would guess that the possibility of the A332s returning to the fleet is slim to none.

They all would need to be refurbished (both seat and IFE-wise) before re-entering service, and I doubt AA would want to spend that kind of money on what is now a small, skeleton fleet from an economies of scale perspective given that the A333s are now retired.

While I love the A332s, and some of them are quite young (6 years IIRC) I just don't see the type having a future for AA.

I believe the oldest is 9 to 11 years.

Oldest AA A330-200 is from 2009. Deliveries through 2014

I believe AA is planning on the 76 oldest 737's by a certain date because they don't want to do a retrofit on them.

I think your see planes unretired as fast as they were retired if demand warrants it.

rj1385 wrote:

I believe AA is planning on the 76 oldest 737's by a certain date because they don't want to do a retrofit on them.

That isn't why. They have the older HUD system.

The ex-AA A330s will surely fly again, likely candidates for freighter conversion. Even the -200s.

Boeing757100 wrote:

American- 757, 767, E190, CRJ200, A330-300s, A330-200s (A332s long term storage till 2022, likelihood coming back unknown.) There is a rumor that they could accelerate 777 retirements, though I'm not sure. But more 787 orders can maybe see them be retired.
United- 757, 767, most likely domestic 777s, older 50 seaters. Other planes that may be cut down, not fully retired, might include older A320s/737NGs
Delta- Mad dogs, 777s, and then planes that would either be cut down or retired completely 757, 767, 717, A320-200. The big question marks I'm putting are near the A319s and 738's. DL actively said that they'd fly the 738s to 30yrs but now I'm not sure. THe A319s is anyone's guess.

Big time wrong on DL... no change in 757 fleet. 1/2 767 fleet was up for retirement but that just changed as it now can handle the lighter trans Atlantic so more are planned to come back. Only the old 320-200s are being parked... that’s airline telling us the numbers..

rj1385 wrote:

I believe AA is planning on the 76 oldest 737's by a certain date because they don't want to do a retrofit on them.

They actually are keeping 48 of the 76 and will undergo Oasis mods.

Boeing757100 wrote:

American- 757, 767, E190, CRJ200, A330-300s, A330-200s (A332s long term storage till 2022, likelihood coming back unknown.) There is a rumor that they could accelerate 777 retirements, though I'm not sure. But more 787 orders can maybe see them be retired.
United- 757, 767, most likely domestic 777s, older 50 seaters. Other planes that may be cut down, not fully retired, might include older A320s/737NGs
Delta- Mad dogs, 777s, and then planes that would either be cut down or retired completely 757, 767, 717, A320-200. The big question marks I'm putting are near the A319s and 738's. DL actively said that they'd fly the 738s to 30yrs but now I'm not sure. THe A319s is anyone's guess.

There are no plans to retire the 777s, so nothing to accelerate. What was stated they would do a fleet review about the oldest 772s.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... 000f066424

jplatts wrote:

N292UX wrote:

AA: 757/767, A333, E190, CRJ-200

AA had also retired its last MD-80 planes in September 2019, and AA had 769 mainline narrowbody planes in service (excluding the 737 MAX) a year ago compared to 721 mainline narrowbody planes currently in service (excluding the 737 MAX).

AA will also probably never bring back the MD-80 planes into service again with AA having already retired its last MD-80's in September 2019.

MD80s had nothing to do with Covid plans to retire them started in 2011 when they made the massive plane order.

KFTG wrote:

rj1385 wrote:

I believe AA is planning on the 76 oldest 737's by a certain date because they don't want to do a retrofit on them.

That isn't why. They have the older HUD system.

The old hud isn't different enough to warrant parking the airplanes. They are quite a bit older than the rest of the fleet (late nineties to before Sept. 11) They are both capable of the same operation, the BAE is not more limited than the Rockwell Collins in terms of approach capabilities etc, just looks a little different, and has a different FMC/CDU menu and naming convention. Starting the aircraft 3DM (when the rockwell collins hud started) Boeing had changed numerous things on the aircraft, so there is a relatively large difference with some of the nuanced items. These include a bit of noise in the cockpit (the older aircraft originally had the "eyebrow" windows whereas later ones did not, there are some lighting convention differences (speed brake lights, flap transit lights, etc), some automatic fan functionality (exhaust fans etc) and some software changes. . There are quite a few small differences in there. The MAX order was always planned to replace some or all of these aircraft, and with the possibility of 30-40 MAX coming in to service this year (24 on property and several built by Boeing already) then the opportunity to replace 30-40 older, already parked for COVID 737s makes sense, and still actually allows a little growth (due to MAX already having the 172 seat config.

These airplanes had the 160 seat config and originally weren't going to get Oasis, then they were planned to get it (before COVID) because demand was strong, the MAX was parked, and we needed the planes. Then Covid stopped Demand, the MAX seems closer to coming along, and all the while we are still getting new A321s. So after several plan changes, as of now about 30-40 (up to all 76) of these airplanes will be parked . The 30-40ish number has been estimations by Robert Isom on a few internal discussions and analyst calls.

I would think still lots of decision open to change. Airlines might be putting International flights back on the schedule but no one knows for sure if they will actually fly. Also what kind of demand will there be for the front of the plane, F/J/PE? I can't imagine any business sending their people out Internationally other than for the most essential travel. And how long can International flights last if seats are filled with $199 flights to Europe? Assuming tourists are actually let in the country without a required quarantine period.

Boof02671 wrote:

AA-757, 767,E190, 333, and the 332s are stored till at least 2022 probably won’t come back at all.

All but the A332s are definitely retired. But as the A332s are all owned, they could be put up for sale, as they would be an orphan fleet where the rest of the long-haul fleet is B772/B77W/B788/B789. Maybe soon, the FAA could be convinced to allow the B777 and B787 to be flown by the same crews (as is the case elsewhere).

As for UA, I'd be surprised if some of the oldest B772s don't go.

As for UA, I would not be surprised to see an accelerated phaseout of the B772...except for the newest four, most are nearly 20 years old or older. The long-haul fleet can then be built around the B77Ws, B788, B789, and B78X.

NLINK wrote:

I think United has said the 767-400ER is under consideration due to it being a oddball fleet.

I learned something interesting about our -400 fleet while listening to a Flight Ops call a while back.

The reason the -400s are parked, besides being in the old business configuration, is the way the engine payments are structured. On the PW fleet, the engines are paid for during overhaul so those costs are largely deferred. The GE engines are paid for immediately in a “power by the hour” structure. So at a time when it’s all about cash burn, the company is flying the planes that they can pay for later on (or the engines, anyway) while parking planes that will cost them money right now.

The -400 may still get parked, but that is the reason it isn’t flying right now. I hope they don’t park it though, I enjoy flying the -400. I believe I also heard that all of the GE 777s are currently parked for the same reason, but I’m not on that fleet so I can’t say for certain.

reltney wrote:

Boeing757100 wrote:

American- 757, 767, E190, CRJ200, A330-300s, A330-200s (A332s long term storage till 2022, likelihood coming back unknown.) There is a rumor that they could accelerate 777 retirements, though I'm not sure. But more 787 orders can maybe see them be retired.
United- 757, 767, most likely domestic 777s, older 50 seaters. Other planes that may be cut down, not fully retired, might include older A320s/737NGs
Delta- Mad dogs, 777s, and then planes that would either be cut down or retired completely 757, 767, 717, A320-200. The big question marks I'm putting are near the A319s and 738's. DL actively said that they'd fly the 738s to 30yrs but now I'm not sure. THe A319s is anyone's guess.

Big time wrong on DL... no change in 757 fleet. 1/2 767 fleet was up for retirement but that just changed as it now can handle the lighter trans Atlantic so more are planned to come back. Only the old 320-200s are being parked... that’s airline telling us the numbers..

How do you know about the 757? I agree on the 767s, but what about the 757s?

Boof02671 wrote:

Boeing757100 wrote:

American- 757, 767, E190, CRJ200, A330-300s, A330-200s (A332s long term storage till 2022, likelihood coming back unknown.) There is a rumor that they could accelerate 777 retirements, though I'm not sure. But more 787 orders can maybe see them be retired.
United- 757, 767, most likely domestic 777s, older 50 seaters. Other planes that may be cut down, not fully retired, might include older A320s/737NGs
Delta- Mad dogs, 777s, and then planes that would either be cut down or retired completely 757, 767, 717, A320-200. The big question marks I'm putting are near the A319s and 738's. DL actively said that they'd fly the 738s to 30yrs but now I'm not sure. THe A319s is anyone's guess.

There are no plans to retire the 777s, so nothing to accelerate. What was stated they would do a fleet review about the oldest 772s.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... 000f066424

Link: https://simpleflying.com/american-airli ... tirements/

UA and DL - 744 are definitely not flying again.

KFTG wrote:

rj1385 wrote:

I believe AA is planning on the 76 oldest 737's by a certain date because they don't want to do a retrofit on them.

That isn't why. They have the older HUD system.

Plus, assuming AA can resume flying their Max's by Q4 , they could replace their 2000 vintage 738's on 1 for 1 basis.

Also think UA will use their Max 9's to replace 738's and or 739's that have lots of hours on them and/or are coming up
on expensive C / D checks.

NLINK wrote:

I think United has said the 767-400ER is under consideration due to it being a oddball fleet.

Hmm - I always thought 764s are quite competitive CASM-wise.

Ziyulu wrote:

UA and DL - 744 are definitely not flying again.

I think we can all be certain about this one.

The 764's are competitive CASM-wise.

However, being an oddball smallish fleet is never good for surviving a fleet downsizing.

FlyHossD wrote:

I'd be surprised if the UAL PW B752s fly for UA again. Just my guess, of course.

I would be very surprised to see the 12 739-NON ERs ever return. I understand the 753/764s are at the bottom of the wake up list.

AA94 wrote:

Ziyulu wrote:

UA and DL - 744 are definitely not flying again.

I think we can all be certain about this one.

Haha.

LGeneReese wrote:

FlyHossD wrote:

I'd be surprised if the UAL PW B752s fly for UA again. Just my guess, of course.

I would be very surprised to see the 12 739-NON ERs ever return. I understand the 753/764s are at the bottom of the wake up list.

Quite a few of the 753's are actually flying revenue flights every day right now between hubs

What about UA Express? Maybe the CRJ200 and/or E145? Is there anything out on that yet?

LGeneReese wrote:

I would be very surprised to see the 12 739-NON ERs ever return. I understand the 753/764s are at the bottom of the wake up list.

UA's 753s at the bottom of the wake up list? I'm not sure that is correct because 10 753s have already returned to service, and UA also reactivated 7 RR 752s.

Acey559 wrote:

The -400 may still get parked, but that is the reason it isn’t flying right now. I hope they don’t park it though, I enjoy flying the -400. I believe I also heard that all of the GE 777s are currently parked for the same reason, but I’m not on that fleet so I can’t say for certain.

The 764s probably will either remain parked for a few years or be retired. However looking at the entire 77E fleet (PW and GE) over 95% of the ER fleet has been parked but there are 2 GE 77Es in active service one of those frames N78013 is currently operating today as UA2178 EWR-DEN with only 11 open seats. The other frame 76010 is on the ground at IAD I'm not sure when its next schedule flight will take place. Over the past few days or even weeks we've seen UA activate some 77E on domestic routes to avoid expensive maintenance cost related to long term storage. In many cases these frames will do 2 or 3 roundtrips between the hubs spread out over a 2-4 day period before the frame is place back into storage and another 77E will take its place.

airboss787 wrote:

What about UA Express? Maybe the CRJ200 and/or E145? Is there anything out on that yet?

Nope, but CRJ550 conversions have stopped, and both AWAC and XJT have started the process of downgrading captains. Difficult to read the tea leaves at UAX.

Ziyulu wrote:

UA and DL - 744 are definitely not flying again.

What are you talking about? This thread is about the affects of COVID-19.