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keesje
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:14 pm

scbriml wrote:
pugman211 wrote:
Wow! Pretty certain there is quite a few aircraft already in assembly. Anyone know how many were due from now till 2022? From either OEM


As far as I can see, it looks like-

Airbus:
50 x A321neo
27 x A350-1000

Boeing:
65 x 777X
23 x 787-9

Interestingly, Boeing only lists QR as having ordered 5 737MAX (all "delivered" as in sat in WA for Air Italy). I wonder if the rest of their highly-publicised order for 50 has been cancelled or never firmed (or are they from lessors?)


I guess they'll take up some A321s, Qatar and Lufthansa nixed the A321 LR at the launch in Paris last year.

https://centreforaviation.com/news/qata ... ceo-913325, https://www.euronews.com/2019/06/24/luf ... hanger-ceo

Then the other airlines didn't agree, voted with their wallets & Boeing saw it's NMA business case drained. For hub carriers like Qatar keeping open slots / routes is crucial. Mark my words: he will 180 on his A321 delay in no time. Probably his tactic for getting prices down.
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United1
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Wed Jun 17, 2020 4:19 pm

Revelation wrote:
Covered by Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN23O22V with more details:

Al-Baker repeated a warning to the planemakers that a refusal to comply with the airline’s request could jeopardise future business between them.

“If they don’t oblige to our requirements, (then) we will have to review our long term business relationships with them,” he said, adding the airline no longer needed the 30 firm orders for Boeing’s 737 MAX it had placed.

“We have already informed Boeing that we will have to replace them with some other type of aeroplanes ... we will not require anymore of the 737 MAXs.”

I guess he doesn't understand A&B can also review who they do business with.


...Ladies and Gentlemen I'd like to welcome you aboard the newest member of the Qatar Airways fleet the Sukhoi Superjet 100 with 15 stop service to JFK..:)

AAB doesn't seem to understand there are only two aircraft manufacturers producing aircraft capable of operating in his network. While playing Boeing and Airbus off each other is a viable negotiating strategy this doesn't seem to be the best way to start off productive talks.
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scbriml
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Wed Jun 17, 2020 4:23 pm

scbriml wrote:
pugman211 wrote:
Wow! Pretty certain there is quite a few aircraft already in assembly. Anyone know how many were due from now till 2022? From either OEM


As far as I can see, it looks like-

Airbus:
50 x A321neo
27 x A350-1000

Boeing:
65 x 777X
23 x 787-9

Interestingly, Boeing only lists QR as having ordered 5 737MAX (all "delivered" as in sat in WA for Air Italy). I wonder if the rest of their highly-publicised order for 50 has been cancelled or never firmed (or are they from lessors?)


Apologies, my post simply details outstanding orders with both OEMs. I don't know how many of those orders are currently scheduled during the time period in question.
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VCVSpotter
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Wed Jun 17, 2020 4:28 pm

Any idea where these (pre-made, but undelivered aircraft) will be stored? Right now there's a Qatar 789 (A7-BHH) all taped up on the flight line at PAE, I highly doubt it would just sit there for a few years, it's too much of a 'waste of space.' Any idea if they'll be ferried to boneyards for long-term storage?

Also, Qatar's first 779 is currently in final assembly, with more aircraft for Qatar planned to be in production. Does this 'halt in deliveries' mean that all of these frames will be pushed back in the production line order, or will they just be made as they are made, and then sent to storage?
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jetwet1
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Wed Jun 17, 2020 4:38 pm

United1 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Covered by Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN23O22V with more details:

Al-Baker repeated a warning to the planemakers that a refusal to comply with the airline’s request could jeopardise future business between them.

“If they don’t oblige to our requirements, (then) we will have to review our long term business relationships with them,” he said, adding the airline no longer needed the 30 firm orders for Boeing’s 737 MAX it had placed.

“We have already informed Boeing that we will have to replace them with some other type of aeroplanes ... we will not require anymore of the 737 MAXs.”

I guess he doesn't understand A&B can also review who they do business with.


...Ladies and Gentlemen I'd like to welcome you aboard the newest member of the Qatar Airways fleet the Sukhoi Superjet 100 with 15 stop service to JFK..:)

AAB doesn't seem to understand there are only two aircraft manufacturers producing aircraft capable of operating in his network. While playing Boeing and Airbus off each other is a viable negotiating strategy this doesn't seem to be the best way to start off productive talks.


Except, sales do not work that way, ABB calls airbus and Boeing and says "We would like to order 50 widebodies" neither of the manufacturers are going to say "No, we don't want your business".
 
ILNFlyer
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:30 pm

Revelation wrote:
This could get ugly. Both sides have legal protections. QR needs ongoing support from A&B to keep their current fleet running. AAB should just work this out in private, but he's AAB, sigh.


Not a good idea to berate your suppliers. Spare parts can become scarce, but only to you.
Last edited by ILNFlyer on Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
pugman211
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:30 pm

scbriml wrote:
scbriml wrote:
pugman211 wrote:
Wow! Pretty certain there is quite a few aircraft already in assembly. Anyone know how many were due from now till 2022? From either OEM


As far as I can see, it looks like-

Airbus:
50 x A321neo
27 x A350-1000

Boeing:
65 x 777X
23 x 787-9

Interestingly, Boeing only lists QR as having ordered 5 737MAX (all "delivered" as in sat in WA for Air Italy). I wonder if the rest of their highly-publicised order for 50 has been cancelled or never firmed (or are they from lessors?)


Apologies, my post simply details outstanding orders with both OEMs. I don't know how many of those orders are currently scheduled during the time period in question.



No problem, thank you for the apology. Yes, I was referring to aircraft currently on the flight lines etc.
 
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ADent
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:41 pm

jetwet1 wrote:

Except, sales do not work that way, ABB calls airbus and Boeing and says "We would like to order 50 widebodies" neither of the manufacturers are going to say "No, we don't want your business".


But the smart one will say we need double the usual deposit and set higher bars on progress payments.
 
Strato2
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:44 pm

Revelation wrote:
Covered by Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN23O22V with more details:

Al-Baker repeated a warning to the planemakers that a refusal to comply with the airline’s request could jeopardise future business between them.

“If they don’t oblige to our requirements, (then) we will have to review our long term business relationships with them,” he said, adding the airline no longer needed the 30 firm orders for Boeing’s 737 MAX it had placed.

“We have already informed Boeing that we will have to replace them with some other type of aeroplanes ... we will not require anymore of the 737 MAXs.”

I guess he doesn't understand A&B can also review who they do business with.


What does Airbus care if Boeing loses even more MAX orders. It's a good bet that QR can get away from the MAX for free now and even get compensation from Boeing for a breach of contract.
 
Vicenza
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:51 pm

Revelation wrote:
This could get ugly. Both sides have legal protections. QR needs ongoing support from A&B to keep their current fleet running. AAB should just work this out in private, but he's AAB, sigh.


In fairness, he's only saying what many self-confessed 'experts' on this forum have been preaching as 'gospel' for weeks now. Not referring to yourself there, by the way.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:54 pm

jetwet1 wrote:
United1 wrote:
AAB doesn't seem to understand there are only two aircraft manufacturers producing aircraft capable of operating in his network. While playing Boeing and Airbus off each other is a viable negotiating strategy this doesn't seem to be the best way to start off productive talks.

Except, sales do not work that way, ABB calls airbus and Boeing and says "We would like to order 50 widebodies" neither of the manufacturers are going to say "No, we don't want your business".

But there are exceptions to the exceptions. FR and MOL complain Airbus doesn't compete for their orders, apparently a bridge has been burned. IB seems to be personna non grata with Boeing after apparently accepting a bid on A340s that Boeing thought it had secured with 777s. There's a link in our IB A346 retirement thread on that. Seems IB won the battle but lost the war.

There seems to be a limit on how hard you can play the game. Complaining about carpeting is one thing, refusing to take years worth of orders is a big step up from that. We may be witnessing AAB crossing the line.
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glideslope
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:32 pm

United1 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Covered by Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN23O22V with more details:

Al-Baker repeated a warning to the planemakers that a refusal to comply with the airline’s request could jeopardise future business between them.

“If they don’t oblige to our requirements, (then) we will have to review our long term business relationships with them,” he said, adding the airline no longer needed the 30 firm orders for Boeing’s 737 MAX it had placed.

“We have already informed Boeing that we will have to replace them with some other type of aeroplanes ... we will not require anymore of the 737 MAXs.”

I guess he doesn't understand A&B can also review who they do business with.


...Ladies and Gentlemen I'd like to welcome you aboard the newest member of the Qatar Airways fleet the Sukhoi Superjet 100 with 15 stop service to JFK..:)

AAB doesn't seem to understand there are only two aircraft manufacturers producing aircraft capable of operating in his network. While playing Boeing and Airbus off each other is a viable negotiating strategy this doesn't seem to be the best way to start off productive talks.


I wasn't going to go there, but I'll pile on with "Our new C-919 Service. Please sign the liability waiver prior to boarding." :tombstone:
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:39 pm

ILNFlyer wrote:
Revelation wrote:
This could get ugly. Both sides have legal protections. QR needs ongoing support from A&B to keep their current fleet running. AAB should just work this out in private, but he's AAB, sigh.


Not a good idea to berate your suppliers. Spare parts can become scarce, but only to you.


That kind of nonsense invites a regulatory response. Oligopolists need to play well with others. 'Comparable terms' clauses are common in U.S. purchase contracts.
 
Jetport
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:42 pm

Will Qatar even survive Covid? The Middle East certainly doesn't need 3 global hub airlines, it may not even need 2. Either Qatar or Etihad need to go away. Looks like AAB is trying to make sure Qatar wins the race to liquidation with his usual public tantrums.
 
smartplane
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Wed Jun 17, 2020 7:10 pm

QR discussions are mirrored across every airline and lessor with new aircraft on order, though less publicly. OEM's would prefer not to establish public cancellation / deferral precedents, especially as these could also inadvertently reveal 'below the line' incentives.

What QR and others do in respect to order cancellations and deferrals will have no future bearing on the willingness of A & B to negotiate aggressively with them for future orders. OEM's, lessors and financiers have short memories when it comes to writing new business.
 
Bricktop
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Wed Jun 17, 2020 7:20 pm

smartplane wrote:
What QR and others do in respect to order cancellations and deferrals will have no future bearing on the willingness of A & B to negotiate aggressively with them for future orders. OEM's, lessors and financiers have short memories when it comes to writing new business.

Perhaps, but the discounts may not be at the MFN level that QR seems to always demand. His MO is to muck the OEMs about bigly. Perhaps an order for 20 B748Fs would improve things with Boeing. :duck:
 
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Revelation
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Wed Jun 17, 2020 8:38 pm

smartplane wrote:
OEM's, lessors and financiers have short memories when it comes to writing new business.

I would think the current situation will rewire some memories.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
jbs2886
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Wed Jun 17, 2020 8:54 pm

smartplane wrote:
QR discussions are mirrored across every airline and lessor with new aircraft on order, though less publicly. OEM's would prefer not to establish public cancellation / deferral precedents, especially as these could also inadvertently reveal 'below the line' incentives.

What QR and others do in respect to order cancellations and deferrals will have no future bearing on the willingness of A & B to negotiate aggressively with them for future orders. OEM's, lessors and financiers have short memories when it comes to writing new business.


Add the fact that A&B don't have the cash to refund deposits (to the extent they need to). Further, while most have short memories, mistrust can certainly persist (prime example being MOL and Ryanair with Airbus).
 
waly777
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Wed Jun 17, 2020 8:57 pm

Revelation wrote:
smartplane wrote:
OEM's, lessors and financiers have short memories when it comes to writing new business.

I would think the current situation will rewire some memories.


When said business involves billions of $, the memories have historically been short, especially when the orders would be needed post recovery.
The test of first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold 2 opposed ideas in the mind concurrently, and still function
 
smartplane
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:05 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
smartplane wrote:
QR discussions are mirrored across every airline and lessor with new aircraft on order, though less publicly. OEM's would prefer not to establish public cancellation / deferral precedents, especially as these could also inadvertently reveal 'below the line' incentives.

What QR and others do in respect to order cancellations and deferrals will have no future bearing on the willingness of A & B to negotiate aggressively with them for future orders. OEM's, lessors and financiers have short memories when it comes to writing new business.


Further, while most have short memories, mistrust can certainly persist (prime example being MOL and Ryanair with Airbus).

That's personal, not corporate memory. Corporate memory / mistrust evaporates very quickly.
 
United1
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:26 pm

ADent wrote:
jetwet1 wrote:

Except, sales do not work that way, ABB calls airbus and Boeing and says "We would like to order 50 widebodies" neither of the manufacturers are going to say "No, we don't want your business".


But the smart one will say we need double the usual deposit and set higher bars on progress payments.


yup exactly or the price of future aircraft is now X+2%, or QR doesn't get the favorable delivery slots they demand ect. The point I was trying to make is while Boeing and Airbus would like to keep QR as a customer QR is dependent on keeping relatively good relations with at least one of those manufacturers. This isn't the way to professionally ask for a deferral.
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
TC957
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:48 pm

So all those 787-9's already delivered won't see service until 2022 either ?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Wed Jun 17, 2020 10:31 pm

TC957 wrote:
So all those 787-9's already delivered won't see service until 2022 either ?


Possibly not. After they were all delivered to Doha late December, then promptly flown to Victorville they subsequently returned to Doha late March and early April and haven't flown since. :o
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NameOmitted
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Wed Jun 17, 2020 10:44 pm

Jetport wrote:
Either Qatar or Etihad need to go away.

The country is still under blockade. They need their airline more then most.

In some form, the airline will survive Covid-19.
 
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Continental767
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Wed Jun 17, 2020 10:47 pm

How long will it be until A&B stop doing business with AAB? This has gotten ridiculous. Does he think he can do whatever he wants? I’m confused on his strategy here. A&B have plenty of other situations to worry about right now.
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oschkosch
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:31 am

scbriml wrote:
Boeing:
65 x 777X
23 x 787-9


How much does this hurt the entire 777X business case?
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Kikko19
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:00 am

Continental767 wrote:
How long will it be until A&B stop doing business with AAB? This has gotten ridiculous. Does he think he can do whatever he wants? I’m confused on his strategy here. A&B have plenty of other situations to worry about right now.


Romans said 'pecunia non olet'. So this is all idealists speculations. When they'll need more airplanes A&B will come back with hat in hand to offer their best prices, since the other airlines will also defer deliveries and maybe go down forever. this is not a playground with kids holding the grudge since they were not allowed to play :D
 
chiad
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:23 am

oschkosch wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Boeing:
65 x 777X
23 x 787-9


How much does this hurt the entire 777X business case?


IMO ... Very hard!
I expect 2/3 of the backlog to vanish.
 
Opus99
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:46 am

chiad wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Boeing:
65 x 777X
23 x 787-9


How much does this hurt the entire 777X business case?


IMO ... Very hard!
I expect 2/3 of the backlog to vanish.

Actually no. In the long run not very much. It would be stupid to cancel those orders because in 4/5 years time when your actual replacement cycle for the 77W comes they will have nothing. The truth is, this was the right thing to do. Qatar does not need The 777X now or even in 2 years. Pushing the order book as far as 8-10 years is very appropriate with some 777X coming in 2030. Let’s not forget qatar has some 777-300er that came in 2018 so I don’t know why they needed this now. And I’m sure they were also aware that they didn’t. In 2022/23 they can get some in to replace their A380 as Akbar said is their plan once the aircraft turns 10, I’ve brought in 2 years closer because of covid.
 
eurotrader85
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:39 am

jetwet1 wrote:
United1 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Covered by Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN23O22V with more details:


I guess he doesn't understand A&B can also review who they do business with.


...Ladies and Gentlemen I'd like to welcome you aboard the newest member of the Qatar Airways fleet the Sukhoi Superjet 100 with 15 stop service to JFK..:)

AAB doesn't seem to understand there are only two aircraft manufacturers producing aircraft capable of operating in his network. While playing Boeing and Airbus off each other is a viable negotiating strategy this doesn't seem to be the best way to start off productive talks.


Except, sales do not work that way, ABB calls airbus and Boeing and says "We would like to order 50 widebodies" neither of the manufacturers are going to say "No, we don't want your business".


Except they can say that if they want because A & B are not two-a-penny office stationary suppliers. They are the only two duopolistic producers on the planet and QR is just one of many customers, and not a very good one at that. 100% cash upfront and list price + X% are the only way they would gt their hands on air frames, A & B hold the cards, not QR.


What I don't get is why AAB thinks he's in any position of strength. It's not like Qatar will allow the airline to fail and has the pockets so why have so much bother? AAB could just do the decent thing and come to a workable solution against the giants. Also this could get geopolitical. Sure people want Qatari gas, but it goes two ways in life, Qatar is expected to buy European and American planes amongst other imports. That's how the relationship goes. The government of Qatar could find itself getting the cold shoulder diplomatically very quickly when the economic impact starts to take toll, and not just QR losing 3rd and 4th freedom rights. We know Germany and others have had strong reservations about opening up to QR, this won't help the cause.
 
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qf789
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:15 am

Could we please just discuss the topic that being about Qatar deferring delivery without turning it into an Airbus vs Boeing argument
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:43 am

The start post is not complete. Here's the summary of what Al Baker has said:

- The 737 MAX plans are off, they don't need the type anymore.
- Outstanding widebody orders will be deferred by 8 to 10 years (!). No cancellations are planned.
- However, QR is keen to accept aircraft already in production.

Qatar Airways Chief says deliveries could be deferred by up to 10 years
Al Baker sends warning about forcing deliveries as Qatar seeks deferrals

So with a bit luck, we might see the 777X at QR in 2030?
Good moaning!
 
airhansa
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Thu Jun 18, 2020 11:29 am

In eight or ten years time, wouldn't long range aircraft be developed enough to dent QR?
 
VSMUT
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Thu Jun 18, 2020 11:41 am

PepeTheFrog wrote:
The start post is not complete. Here's the summary of what Al Baker has said:

- The 737 MAX plans are off, they don't need the type anymore.
- Outstanding widebody orders will be deferred by 8 to 10 years (!). No cancellations are planned.
- However, QR is keen to accept aircraft already in production.

Qatar Airways Chief says deliveries could be deferred by up to 10 years
Al Baker sends warning about forcing deliveries as Qatar seeks deferrals

So with a bit luck, we might see the 777X at QR in 2030?


That's going to pose a dilemma. The 777X doesn't have an outstanding orderbook that will last until 2030, even including the Qatar order. Really rotten luck on the timing of the 777X program for Boeing, although it wasn't something they could have foreseen.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Thu Jun 18, 2020 12:26 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
The start post is not complete. Here's the summary of what Al Baker has said:

- The 737 MAX plans are off, they don't need the type anymore.
- Outstanding widebody orders will be deferred by 8 to 10 years (!). No cancellations are planned.
- However, QR is keen to accept aircraft already in production.

Qatar Airways Chief says deliveries could be deferred by up to 10 years
Al Baker sends warning about forcing deliveries as Qatar seeks deferrals

So with a bit luck, we might see the 777X at QR in 2030?

If QR is accepting aircraft in production, but differing others, contract is met. I see no issue.

Darn, AAB drama is normally so interesting, but doesn't seem to apply this time.

Does keen mean bypassing carpet inspections? :duck:

Lightsaber
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Opus99
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Thu Jun 18, 2020 12:27 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
The start post is not complete. Here's the summary of what Al Baker has said:

- The 737 MAX plans are off, they don't need the type anymore.
- Outstanding widebody orders will be deferred by 8 to 10 years (!). No cancellations are planned.
- However, QR is keen to accept aircraft already in production.

Qatar Airways Chief says deliveries could be deferred by up to 10 years
Al Baker sends warning about forcing deliveries as Qatar seeks deferrals

So with a bit luck, we might see the 777X at QR in 2030?

They have a 777X already in production. I think he means that some of the orders on the 777X will be pushed back as far as 8 to 10 years maybe the first few ones they might take in 2022/23 but I think maybe the order book would’ve taken about 5 years to complete but now it will take about 8 to 10 years by the time they push them back
 
889091
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Thu Jun 18, 2020 12:28 pm

He can shout all he wants now when oil is at ~US$40/barrel. When it shoots back up to ~US$120/barrel like a few years ago and when the blockade is still in place, then it will be a different story.

Perhaps a VDG vs. BCA situation all over again.
 
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Thu Jun 18, 2020 12:59 pm

889091 wrote:
He can shout all he wants now when oil is at ~US$40/barrel. When it shoots back up to ~US$120/barrel like a few years ago and when the blockade is still in place, then it will be a different story.

Perhaps a VDG vs. BCA situation all over again.


The price of oil would have little to no effect on the Qatari economy as they only produce about 600,000 barrels a day- barely a drop in the bucket. However, they are one of the largest LNG producers/exporters in the world.
 
Scotron12
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:17 pm

Opus99 wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
The start post is not complete. Here's the summary of what Al Baker has said:

- The 737 MAX plans are off, they don't need the type anymore.
- Outstanding widebody orders will be deferred by 8 to 10 years (!). No cancellations are planned.
- However, QR is keen to accept aircraft already in production.

Qatar Airways Chief says deliveries could be deferred by up to 10 years
Al Baker sends warning about forcing deliveries as Qatar seeks deferrals

So with a bit luck, we might see the 777X at QR in 2030?

They have a 777X already in production. I think he means that some of the orders on the 777X will be pushed back as far as 8 to 10 years maybe the first few ones they might take in 2022/23 but I think maybe the order book would’ve taken about 5 years to complete but now it will take about 8 to 10 years by the time they push them back


If they already have a 779 in production, what happens to the completed frame?
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:47 pm

QR seems to have the weirdest fleet strategy where they tend to order the next, cool "shiny things" that Airbus and Boeing offer, even if it results in a mongrel fleet. They have a mind-boggling, 234-aircraft fleet, consisting of 7 different aircraft families, from 2 different manufacturers, all to serve a single-hub operation. And this does not include their 737MAX orders from their failed investment in (now-defunct) Air Italy.

Perhaps QR does need to step back from signing-up to the flashy air show orders and take a serious look at rationalizing their fleet? I think both manufacturers and QR will work out a compromise to restructure their open orders, but behind closed doors.
 
Opus99
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:16 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
QR seems to have the weirdest fleet strategy where they tend to order the next, cool "shiny things" that Airbus and Boeing offer, even if it results in a mongrel fleet. They have a mind-boggling, 234-aircraft fleet, consisting of 7 different aircraft families, from 2 different manufacturers, all to serve a single-hub operation. And this does not include their 737MAX orders from their failed investment in (now-defunct) Air Italy.

Perhaps QR does need to step back from signing-up to the flashy air show orders and take a serious look at rationalizing their fleet? I think both manufacturers and QR will work out a compromise to restructure their open orders, but behind closed doors.

I think QR and Boeing is also heavily supported by trade between the US and Qatar more so than actual physical aircraft needs.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:26 pm

Scotron12 wrote:
If they already have a 779 in production, what happens to the completed frame?

The earliest Boeing will deliver any 77x is 2021 ( ref: https://onemileatatime.com/boeing-777x-delivery-delay/ ).
If QR doesn't want it till 2022 then I'd suggest it'll just get stored till then.
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:37 pm

Just for the record, Qatar is currently in the process of accepting 2 new A350s. Both planes can be seen at Airbus' delivery centre in Toulouse.

Image
https://twitter.com/THOFBOSS/status/1273637329455001601
Good moaning!
 
ewt340
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Mon Jun 22, 2020 5:39 pm

Opus99 wrote:
chiad wrote:
oschkosch wrote:

How much does this hurt the entire 777X business case?


IMO ... Very hard!
I expect 2/3 of the backlog to vanish.

Actually no. In the long run not very much. It would be stupid to cancel those orders because in 4/5 years time when your actual replacement cycle for the 77W comes they will have nothing. The truth is, this was the right thing to do. Qatar does not need The 777X now or even in 2 years. Pushing the order book as far as 8-10 years is very appropriate with some 777X coming in 2030. Let’s not forget qatar has some 777-300er that came in 2018 so I don’t know why they needed this now. And I’m sure they were also aware that they didn’t. In 2022/23 they can get some in to replace their A380 as Akbar said is their plan once the aircraft turns 10, I’ve brought in 2 years closer because of covid.


I would expect them to get canceled or at least reduced. They might be able to replace them with A350-1000 rather than taking B777X. It would be better for them to convert them to B787. It's a lower risk purchase.

It's not like they have to have 1:1 replacement for every aircraft. It's not uncommon for airlines to replace larger aircraft with a slightly smaller one.
 
Opus99
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Mon Jun 22, 2020 5:48 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
chiad wrote:

IMO ... Very hard!
I expect 2/3 of the backlog to vanish.

Actually no. In the long run not very much. It would be stupid to cancel those orders because in 4/5 years time when your actual replacement cycle for the 77W comes they will have nothing. The truth is, this was the right thing to do. Qatar does not need The 777X now or even in 2 years. Pushing the order book as far as 8-10 years is very appropriate with some 777X coming in 2030. Let’s not forget qatar has some 777-300er that came in 2018 so I don’t know why they needed this now. And I’m sure they were also aware that they didn’t. In 2022/23 they can get some in to replace their A380 as Akbar said is their plan once the aircraft turns 10, I’ve brought in 2 years closer because of covid.


I would expect them to get canceled or at least reduced. They might be able to replace them with A350-1000 rather than taking B777X. It would be better for them to convert them to B787. It's a lower risk purchase.

It's not like they have to have 1:1 replacement for every aircraft. It's not uncommon for airlines to replace larger aircraft with a slightly smaller one.

Only time will tell
 
DCA350
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:50 pm

Imo they have overordered. 60 777Xs was always way too many.. At most they need half that. I expect some to be cancelled and/or converted to 787s.
 
Opus99
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:33 pm

DCA350 wrote:
Imo they have overordered. 60 777Xs was always way too many.. At most they need half that. I expect some to be cancelled and/or converted to 787s.

Depends on how you look at it. They have 48 77Ws and 10 77Ls they’ve ordered 50 779s and 10 778s. So if it’s a replacement program then they haven’t. If it’s an expansion program then they have. We know it’s a replacement program because as I think established in another thread QR keeps planes for about 10-15 years and then retirés them
 
DCA350
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:45 pm

Opus99 wrote:
DCA350 wrote:
Imo they have overordered. 60 777Xs was always way too many.. At most they need half that. I expect some to be cancelled and/or converted to 787s.

Depends on how you look at it. They have 48 77Ws and 10 77Ls they’ve ordered 50 779s and 10 778s. So if it’s a replacement program then they haven’t. If it’s an expansion program then they have. We know it’s a replacement program because as I think established in another thread QR keeps planes for about 10-15 years and then retirés them


In a vacuum yes but your not accounting for the nearly 40 A350Ks they have on order which are essentially the same size at the 777Ws. So many of the 777Xs were marked for expansion.
 
guillermohs
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:01 pm

Opus99 wrote:
DCA350 wrote:
Imo they have overordered. 60 777Xs was always way too many.. At most they need half that. I expect some to be cancelled and/or converted to 787s.

Depends on how you look at it. They have 48 77Ws and 10 77Ls they’ve ordered 50 779s and 10 778s. So if it’s a replacement program then they haven’t. If it’s an expansion program then they have. We know it’s a replacement program because as I think established in another thread QR keeps planes for about 10-15 years and then retirés them


The fact that the 779 is larger than the 77W makes it an unsuitable replacement in many routes, considering the reduction in demand for the next few years.

Still, the 777X has room in Qatar's diverse fleet: replacing the A380 and in trunk routes where there is still enough demand. The problem is they don't need it anytime soon, since the fleet of 77W is not that old and many routes are not coming back for at least several months.

The order of 60 77X was certainly made for the future replacement of 77W, but with such a big order expansion was an inevitable and desired consequence. ME3 had excessively ambitious plans for growth and even before COVD-19 crisis that was clear as day.
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:49 pm

DCA350 wrote:
Imo they have overordered. 60 777Xs was always way too many.. At most they need half that. I expect some to be cancelled and/or converted to 787s.


https://www.planespotters.net/operators ... /787-9?p=9

Qatar has 7 B789's that were delivered in December 2019 and have not yet been put into revenue service. There is one more finished B789 that is sitting on the flight line at PAE since March waiting for Qatar to take delivery. The 7 aircraft making up the December 2019 deliveries had been stored at VCV until May, then they were sent to Doha where they were put back into storage there. It is true that the pandemic impacted Qatar's plans for these birds, but I wonder if they were just another "shiny thing" they ordered that they really did not need?

One of the reasons that Qatar is getting cold feet over taking the B779's is that their purchase plan called for moving on their relatively low-time B77W's to the 2nd-hand market for premium prices. The pandemic ruined that plan, at least for the next couple of years.

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