I am really curious as to the timings of the 2 flights. The later of two will almost certainly be timed to do a red-eye turn back to the east coast so that would make late evening departure from EWR. The earlier of the flights is really anyone's guess at this point. It is odd that they went with 2x PHX-EWR vs 2x PHX-JFK. There is more competition on the EWR route vs the JFK route.
I can some of these new transcon routes being flown with their 220s instead of their 320/321s.
That was before COVID. They are probably expecting UA to be slow adding back the number of flights on EWR-PHX. They are probably thinking AA will shrink at PHX due to WN pressure and significantly reduce if not drop EWR-PHX. I doubt either DL/AA will dramatically cut back JFK-PHX. For july, AA is already back to 3x daily on JFK-PHX, whereas EWR-PHX only has 5x weekly by UA.
WN is back at 90% of its pre COVID capacity (flights, not seats) in DEN starting in July. Pretty much eating UA's lunch imo
Compared to UA operating under 40% of DEN, I might addhttps://twitter.com/AilevonPacific/stat ... 64737?s=20
UA is operating the least % of its July schedule out of the US carriers by a wide margin[/quote]
Yep, another part of B6 calculus would be that UA is getting attacked in a lot of places by WN and also feeling a lot of ULCC pressure at EWR. So there will be less retaliation from them at this time. UA is clearly bringing back their middle of the country hubs and even IAD faster than EWR at this point.
I'm wondering who is not returning to clear the slots and gate availability? If they're using AC's two gates in Pier 1 that is not going to last, and I thought the allocations in T1 had already been worked out, 100% CUTE but based on current percentage of capacity. As it is you had MCO flights out of Pier 3 (gate 21?).
I believe they already had 5 or 6 at EWR pre-COVID. They were able to get more gates toward end of last year. That's what allowed them to schedule 36 flights a day this April/May before COVID happened. BOS-EWR isn't going to return to pre-COVID capacity anytime soon. EWR-Florida is likely to be below pre-COVID capacity for a few more months. So even if they don't get more gates, 6 gates should fit in these flights with no problem. It does look like they have much larger ambition for that. I'm assuming eventually EWR mint will increase over time as NYC-LAX/SFO market comes back, so they are going to be adding 15 to 20 flights from these announced cities. I'd imagine most of them stick around. On top of that, they are likely to add some island flying. That alone will bring them to about 60 flights on peak days. I'd imagine they will be looking to get preferential access to at least 8 gates at T1.
Regarding the fights B6 is picking with this announcement, there's been a lot of focus on UA at EWR and DL at MSP/DTW. However, I'd say beefing up their PHL-Florida presence is a pretty direct attack on AA as well. Each legacy gets some unwanted competition with this announcement.
That's the part that really surprised me. It seems a great way to burn money to get in between AA and 2 ULCCs in some of these PHL-Florida markets. I think PHL-SJU will be able to stick but not sure about other stuff they are adding.
I can sort of get the logic here with PIT/PHL. They are making a huge play for NJ. By adding to both PHL and PIT, it will allow them to also capture some customers in PA. I'm just not sure how much of that will stick around once BOS business markets come back.
Looks like a final push to throw Alaska out of FLL too. All great adds. They really need to make EWR a co terminal and continue a huge push into it.
Another one I'm surprised people missed. This is a huge attack on AS.
They are basically looking to push AS off MCO-SFO, EWR-LAX/SFO/SAN. Given what we've seen from AS in the cali-transcon market, I think there is a good shot they will be able to do that.
And adding PDX-FLL before AS and adding SEA-FLL.
CLE-RSW and ORD-PBI seem like real oddballs here.
Last edited by tphuang
on Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.