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jfklganyc
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:03 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
STT757 wrote:
catiii wrote:

Completely agreed on your UA assessment. I think it is clear that United’s New York/New Jersey strategy is in flux with Jill Kaplan leaving after less than 2 years, who came to United with much fanfare to be the President of New York/New Jersey. It appears they are dismantling that whole effort. As you rightly noted the network options from LGA are worthless, and to not even maintain a beach head presence in JFK was arguably the dumbest decision they've ever made. They do not have a transcontinental 757 replacement and the existing product pre-Covid was tired worn and dated. I don't see what their opportunities to respond here are, because they have rendered themselves irrelevant in the tri-state area everywhere but EWR, and that wall is crumbling.


it's not all gloom and doom, United has more Widebody aircraft than any other US carrier and not a lot of International routes for them right now. They can 787-10 JetBlue to death on the Trans-cons.


Kirby has not shown any interest in being competitive during the crisis, I don't see UA trying to fight B6 at this point

The strategy appears to be to shrink to profitability at all costs, even if you could end up hurting the business long-term



He may end up looking like a genius at the end of this… We just don’t know how this is going to play out
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:09 pm

lowfareair wrote:
This is why we will see fare wars and flight levels returning to normal. Not from entrenched legacies wanting to do it, but from airlines who are either more nimble or have calculated that they lose less money flying planes than parking them. The big 4 almost assuredly don't want this, but moves like this from B6, NK, F9 will likely force their hand, at least within North America.

I agree. I'm glad to see B6 showing some nimbleness. I hope they thrive.

Allegiant seems to be the most aggressive. For better or worse, the US4 will lose market share.

Did I miss AS's big move?

Lightsaber
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slcdeltarumd11
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:18 pm

Oddly I think it's a good time to push EWR. United cant defend the fortress like they would any other time. We has such price premiums on alot of united N/S routes.

JetBlue has a great reputation in the entire NY/NJ/CT/MA/VT area adding EWR base isn't bad they have lots of fans and it's a known respected brand in the northeast.
 
nine4nine
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:37 pm

lightsaber wrote:
lowfareair wrote:
This is why we will see fare wars and flight levels returning to normal. Not from entrenched legacies wanting to do it, but from airlines who are either more nimble or have calculated that they lose less money flying planes than parking them. The big 4 almost assuredly don't want this, but moves like this from B6, NK, F9 will likely force their hand, at least within North America.

I agree. I'm glad to see B6 showing some nimbleness. I hope they thrive.

Allegiant seems to be the most aggressive. For better or worse, the US4 will lose market share.

Did I miss AS's big move?

Lightsaber


Yes. AS added MRY and LAX-FAT lol.
717, 727-100, 727-200, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 742, 748, 752, 753, 762, 763, 772, 77W, 787-10, DC9, MD80/88/90, DC10, 319, 220-300, 320, 321, 321n, 332, 333, CS100, CRJ200, Q400, E175, E190, ERJ145, EMB120
 
N649DL
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:44 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Oddly I think it's a good time to push EWR. United cant defend the fortress like they would any other time. We has such price premiums on alot of united N/S routes.

JetBlue has a great reputation in the entire NY/NJ/CT/MA/VT area adding EWR base isn't bad they have lots of fans and it's a known respected brand in the northeast.


Which is hilarious, because back in 2001 at the EWR Airplane Expo there was a JetBlue booth and my Dad asked an employee if B6 would ever come to EWR and they said "Absolutely No Chance". Times have changed so much since then.
 
F9LASDEN
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:02 pm

nine4nine wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
lowfareair wrote:
This is why we will see fare wars and flight levels returning to normal. Not from entrenched legacies wanting to do it, but from airlines who are either more nimble or have calculated that they lose less money flying planes than parking them. The big 4 almost assuredly don't want this, but moves like this from B6, NK, F9 will likely force their hand, at least within North America.

I agree. I'm glad to see B6 showing some nimbleness. I hope they thrive.

Allegiant seems to be the most aggressive. For better or worse, the US4 will lose market share.

Did I miss AS's big move?

Lightsaber


Yes. AS added MRY and LAX-FAT lol.


PDX-DEN too.
Spirit of the West...A Whole Different Animal...Low Fares Done Right
 
catiii
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 12:49 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
FSDan wrote:

They already have that title - they're the only major airline based in NYC!


PANYNJ airports NYC, passenger traffic 12-months ending 9/19:

UA, 32.7 million
DL, 32.5 million
B6, 18.0 million
AA, 16.7 million
and to show the gap to #5, WN, 4.2 million

The tag 'Hometown airline' doesn't pay the bills.

https://old.panynj.gov/airports/pdf-tra ... T_2019.pdf


UA and DL also have major wide-body and long-haul networks out of New York. B6 only has narrow-body aircraft, but has done enough damage to basically push AA to near irrelevance at JFK. The idea here is that B6 could re-fit more 321s with Mint, while the 32Qs (excluding the LR frames) are all core, and then make more routes Mint (basically an international-style J) where B6 could do damage to the legacies, like ORD. AA will likely retrench to PHL, CLT, MIA, and DFW.


“Only” narrowbodies... They’ve done pretty well with “only” narrowbodies.

Also they’re not re-fitting more 321s. They’re taking new build Mint 321s and using existing Mint 321s.
 
airhansa
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 1:18 am

I would see JetBlue replacing one of the big three carriers by expanding their Mint offering.

I would like to see a situation where an Airbus A380 is retrofitted with "cattle class" seating on the bottom deck, and "premium class" seating on the top deck.
 
HNLSLCPDX
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 1:22 am

Wish B6 would build up SLC again. Bring back at least SLC-SAN and maybe give SJC and AUS a try from SLC as well. Link up some major tech areas.
 
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jfklganyc
Topic Author
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 1:56 am

HNLSLCPDX wrote:
Wish B6 would build up SLC again. Bring back at least SLC-SAN and maybe give SJC and AUS a try from SLC as well. Link up some major tech areas.



SLC has gotten a lot of love over last few years:

Daylight JFK
LGB
BOS
MCO
FLL

All hubs are connected
 
tphuang
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 1:57 am

It's a lot easier to fill 16 seat J cabin for 3 to 5 flights a day vs 40 to 60 seat J cabin 10 to 12 flights a day. It's hard to see how UA can run exclusively widebodies on EWR-LAX/SFO in this kind of low corporate demand environment. I guess we will find out how many new mint A321s they will take. They only have a few more A321s this year + 5 next year. After that, it's all LRs for the next 2 years. They probably should pick mint config for most if not all of them if they want to have enough to be competitive on EWR-LAX/SFO. Or they will need to pull some aircraft from other mint routes.

SLC won't happen. This is the best opportunity they have to build up NY/NJ presence in a decade. Going to need to concentrate here before other places. Once they are done here, BOS needs to get to 200+ flights and FLL needs to be built back up again. LAX is going to be another growth area in the next few years.
 
Judge1310
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:03 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Kirby has not shown any interest in being competitive during the crisis, I don't see UA trying to fight B6 at this point

The strategy appears to be to shrink to profitability at all costs, even if you could end up hurting the business long-term


Actually, Mr Kirby has specifically stated that the Smisek-era playbook of shrinking to profitability is exactly what they *won't* be doing. The primary goal (stated time and time again) is to reduce dail cash-burn, all the while keeping very aware of where to nimbly upgauge and add service. SFO-EWR, today, operated with one 753, one 752, one 787-10, and one 787-8. Some nominal A321s plying the route will not necessarily trounce the route or the EWR hub for UA. Someone posted earlier that it appears that the primary target here is not UA, rather, AS. This seems to be the more plausible ploy here.
 
rj1385
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:13 am

cpl22586 wrote:
F27500 wrote:
B6 completely halted HPN (White Plains, NY) at the outset of the covid situation when they were consolidating their NYC operations to just JFK and EWR.

Any idea when (and hopefully not "if") the HPN service starts again ?


Last I saw was a July 1st startup for PVD; LGA, HPN, SWF; BWI; SJC; BUR and ONT


At least HPN was able to use the downturn in traffic to their advantage.
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The runway is back to normal daily service, but closed at night for grooving the new pavement.
 
tphuang
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:41 am

Judge1310 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Kirby has not shown any interest in being competitive during the crisis, I don't see UA trying to fight B6 at this point

The strategy appears to be to shrink to profitability at all costs, even if you could end up hurting the business long-term


Actually, Mr Kirby has specifically stated that the Smisek-era playbook of shrinking to profitability is exactly what they *won't* be doing. The primary goal (stated time and time again) is to reduce dail cash-burn, all the while keeping very aware of where to nimbly upgauge and add service. SFO-EWR, today, operated with one 753, one 752, one 787-10, and one 787-8. Some nominal A321s plying the route will not necessarily trounce the route or the EWR hub for UA. Someone posted earlier that it appears that the primary target here is not UA, rather, AS. This seems to be the more plausible ploy here.


Yes, on those specific routes, I'm sure there is some calculation by B6 that AS will give up on SAN/LAX/SFO and AA will cut down on PHX. But as a whole, this is clearly a buildup that will adversely affect UA. 10 to 20 additional flights to Florida by NK and F9 aren't that big of a deal. A B6 buildup with a real network at EWR is actually going to cost UA quite a few non-price sensitive customers. It's not really clear at this point how large of an operation B6 can build at EWR. Obviously, the larger they get, the worse it will be for UA.

I'm of the opinion that Kirby has been dealt with a very tough situation where UA is disproportionately affected by this crisis more than any other airline. Having too many widebodies sitting around right now doing nothing is a byproduct of decisions made by people before him. He is doing what he could to ensure UA's future. But while this is happening, other airlines who are not saddled with the same problems will take advantage of the situation.
 
Flflyer83
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 4:30 am

And Cuomo stated this evening that a 14-day quarantine for travelers arriving to NY from Florida may be imposed soon and once NY does it, many other NE states will follow suit.
 
Jerseyguy
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 4:32 am

Some of the flights have been added to Jetblue.com
EWR-AUS $49 (BE) $84 (ECONOMY) (seen some $43 BE fares but not many)
B6 821 EWR 955AM-AUS 1239PM
B6 850 AUS 125PM-EWR 608PM

EWR-SAN $139 (BE) $184 (ECONOMY)
B6 1045 EWR 655PM SAN 931PM
B6 1046 SAN 800AM EWR 427PM

EWR-LAS $49 (BE) $84 (ECONOMY)
B6 957 EWR 800AM LAS 1018AM
B6 1757 EWR 700PM LAS 917PM
--
B6 956 LAS 1115AM EWR 715PM
B6 1756 LAS 1010PM EWR 605AM

EWR-PHX $139 BE $174 (ECONOMY)
B6 141 EWR 835AM PHX 1047AM
B6 941 EWR 754PM PHX 1000PM
--
B6 140 PHX 1135AM EWR 728PM
B6 840 PHX 1049PM EWR 641AM
 
FSDan
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 4:53 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
FSDan wrote:
HNLSLCPDX wrote:
Wow, B6 really going after UA at EWR and DL at JFK. They are really pushing for the title of New York’s hometown airline.


They already have that title - they're the only major airline based in NYC!


PANYNJ airports NYC, passenger traffic 12-months ending 9/19:

UA, 32.7 million
DL, 32.5 million
B6, 18.0 million
AA, 16.7 million
and to show the gap to #5, WN, 4.2 million

The tag 'Hometown airline' doesn't pay the bills.

https://old.panynj.gov/airports/pdf-tra ... T_2019.pdf


In my mind, "hometown" = HQed there. I certainly wouldn't call B6 "New York's leading airline" or anything like that...
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
FSDan
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 5:09 am

tphuang wrote:
" So if they want to expand at EWR, they need to add more flights. I'd love to see LAX or SFO, but not sure if they have enough mint aircraft around for even 4x on EWR-LAX. Aside from that, stuff like PUJ/MBJ/KIN/CUN/AUA/BGI(more than 1x weekly) all seem to things they can try internationally. And domestically, I think leisure places and large WN stations are all places they can target like MSY/AUS/LAS/SAN and also places they have large enough presence like BUF/JAX/CHS/ACK."
- I got a lot of these EWR markets right. Basically, only missed PHX/SRQ.


Nice call!

tphuang wrote:
AA giving up a lot of slots at JFK and effectively dehubbing it.


Has there been any confirmation of this, or just a strong suspicion (given AA's recent history at JFK, and the recent return of a large number of JFK slots)?
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
FSDan
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 5:11 am

FLIHGH wrote:
Interesting to see them relaunch TPA-DCA so quickly after nearly gutting all of the non hub DCA flying.


Well, they suddenly don't need to be running 10+ daily to BOS anymore...
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
SurfandSnow
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 6:14 am

Wow! Mint service EWR-LAX/SFO is very exciting! I had long wondered about the possibility of B6 trying transcon service from EWR to complement existing JFK operations. After all, I feel like the B6 brand has always been about offering a choice in metropolitan area airports - even for transcon flyers. I'm sure many B6 FFers will appreciate these new options! It will be very interesting to see how AS holds up on these routes now. It will also be very interesting to see how B6 fares on the EWR-AUS/CHS/JAX/LAS/PHX/SAN/SRQ routes, let alone JFK-DFW/DTW/MSP/STT, LGA-RSW/TPA (again), and even PVD-RSW/TPA... But CLE-RSW?!?!?!?!!? DCA-TPA (again)? ORD-PBI?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?! PDX-FLL?!?!?!?! PHL-MCO/PBI/RSW/SJU/TPA? PIT-FLL/PBI?!?!?! SEA-FLL? SFO-MCO?!?!?!?!

I completely understand the logic behind the push at EWR, JFK, and LGA. Many travelers in and around New York City are familiar with the B6 brand and consider traveling from any or all of these airports. PVD and perhaps even airports like ORH and MHT could serve a similar function for Boston area travelers. However, markets like Chicago, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh have been rather problematic for B6 in the past. Then again, past performance could offer little insight into future success?
Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
 
ryanov
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 6:16 am

jfklganyc wrote:
Im flying NYC to Florida all the time. Right thru the pandemic.

From May 1 on...full full full.

These people telling you that nobody is flying there… They don’t know what they’re talking about

You couldn’t non-rev out of any New York City airport to any Florida airport tomorrow if you wanted.

Are there less passengers overall? yes. But there are less flights and those flights are capped due to the social distancing

Upon arrival in Florida they put on what I like to call the “dog and pony show.”

You clap and jump and smile and you are quickly released to freedom. End of show.

And I’m not the only person that has realized that

NY-Florida right now is a winner. Perhaps the only winner.

Smart move


There is no part of this post that can correctly be called a "smart move."
 
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jfklganyc
Topic Author
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:33 am

FSDan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
" So if they want to expand at EWR, they need to add more flights. I'd love to see LAX or SFO, but not sure if they have enough mint aircraft around for even 4x on EWR-LAX. Aside from that, stuff like PUJ/MBJ/KIN/CUN/AUA/BGI(more than 1x weekly) all seem to things they can try internationally. And domestically, I think leisure places and large WN stations are all places they can target like MSY/AUS/LAS/SAN and also places they have large enough presence like BUF/JAX/CHS/ACK."
- I got a lot of these EWR markets right. Basically, only missed PHX/SRQ.


Nice call!

tphuang wrote:
AA giving up a lot of slots at JFK and effectively dehubbing it.


Has there been any confirmation of this, or just a strong suspicion (given AA's recent history at JFK, and the recent return of a large number of JFK slots)?



Somebody returned 70 slots.

Unknown.

People are connecting the dots
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:53 am

Judge1310 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Kirby has not shown any interest in being competitive during the crisis, I don't see UA trying to fight B6 at this point

The strategy appears to be to shrink to profitability at all costs, even if you could end up hurting the business long-term


Actually, Mr Kirby has specifically stated that the Smisek-era playbook of shrinking to profitability is exactly what they *won't* be doing. The primary goal (stated time and time again) is to reduce dail cash-burn, all the while keeping very aware of where to nimbly upgauge and add service. SFO-EWR, today, operated with one 753, one 752, one 787-10, and one 787-8. Some nominal A321s plying the route will not necessarily trounce the route or the EWR hub for UA. Someone posted earlier that it appears that the primary target here is not UA, rather, AS. This seems to be the more plausible ploy here.


I'm well aware of the primary goal (and the goal of every airline right now), his idea of achieving the primary goal involves the most cuts out of any US airline, by a wide margin

No one said B6 would trounce UA, but B6 building up EWR poses a direct threat to UA's EWR dominance.

B6 & AS are not competing for the same passengers, AS is capturing west coast traffic & B6 is capturing east coast traffic. B6 adding EWR-AUS/JAX/CHS/LAS/PHX/SRQ quite literally does nothing to AS. EWR-LAX/SFO/SAN involve AS, but B6 trying to squash AS in EWR doesn't help them, as AS would just move the EWR flights to B6's core focus city, JFK.

There is no doubt in my mind B6's main target is UA.
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clrd4t8koff
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 12:53 pm

klm617 wrote:
kavok wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:

Why on earth would you be excited to use JFK as a gateway to Europe when the only airline you can easily connect to @ JFK from B6 is EI?? Any other airline would require exiting security and taking the Airtrain to another terminal and re-clearing security. Whereas DTW-BOS-Europe on B6 is a very easy connection to not only EI & TP, but if you connect to another European carrier it's a seamless walk from Terminal C to Terminal E without having to leave security.


True, but that only works on the North America to Europe connection. On the return, effectively you have to clear security regardless, so it is not as big a deal.

I think the bigger issue is options. The JFK AirTran connection, while annoying, provides another LCC TATL option. Remember that DTW flyers have no LCC carriers to Europe or ME3 carriers to the Middle East. Thus the only option before to get a TATL LCC or ME3 was through BOS. This provides a second option, even if slightly more inconvenient on the way there.


I would much rather connect at JFK than BOS. Remember at JFK you have more options in case of a missed connection as most carriers have multiple flights into JFK where as in BOS a missed connection and you are screwed.


What B6 partner that flys JFK-Europe offers multiple flight options that don’t offer those same options BOS-Europe. There’s only two B6 partners to Europe - Aer Lingus & Icelandair - and both have multiple flights at JFK & BOS. In fact with FI there’s more flights from BOS than JFK.
 
klm617
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:22 pm

clrd4t8koff wrote:
klm617 wrote:
kavok wrote:

True, but that only works on the North America to Europe connection. On the return, effectively you have to clear security regardless, so it is not as big a deal.

I think the bigger issue is options. The JFK AirTran connection, while annoying, provides another LCC TATL option. Remember that DTW flyers have no LCC carriers to Europe or ME3 carriers to the Middle East. Thus the only option before to get a TATL LCC or ME3 was through BOS. This provides a second option, even if slightly more inconvenient on the way there.


I would much rather connect at JFK than BOS. Remember at JFK you have more options in case of a missed connection as most carriers have multiple flights into JFK where as in BOS a missed connection and you are screwed.


What B6 partner that flys JFK-Europe offers multiple flight options that don’t offer those same options BOS-Europe. There’s only two B6 partners to Europe - Aer Lingus & Icelandair - and both have multiple flights at JFK & BOS. In fact with FI there’s more flights from BOS than JFK.


Here are the code share partners you can't tell me BOS has better coverage than JFK.

Aer Lingus
Aeroflot
Air China
Air India
All Nippon Airways
Asiana Airlines
Austrian Airlines
Azul Brazilian Airlines
El Al
Emirates
Etihad Airways
EVA Air
Japan Airlines
JSX
Hawaiian Airlines
Hainan Airlines
Iberia
Icelandair
Korean Air
Lufthansa
Porter Airlines
South African Airways
Swiss International Air Lines
Singapore Airlines
TAP Air Portugal
Turkish Airlines
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
hiflyeras
Posts: 2227
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:48 pm

Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:29 pm

Has anyone considered that B6 is doing this to prod consolidation? Nothing works better to push a much larger competitor to make you disappear than poking them with a stick.
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3309
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:51 pm

tphuang wrote:
" So if they want to expand at EWR, they need to add more flights. I'd love to see LAX or SFO, but not sure if they have enough mint aircraft around for even 4x on EWR-LAX. Aside from that, stuff like PUJ/MBJ/KIN/CUN/AUA/BGI(more than 1x weekly) all seem to things they can try internationally. And domestically, I think leisure places and large WN stations are all places they can target like MSY/AUS/LAS/SAN and also places they have large enough presence like BUF/JAX/CHS/ACK."
- I got a lot of these EWR markets right. Basically, only missed PHX/SRQ.

I'm really surprised nobody has mentioned BOS up to this point. 30 new routes and nothing from BOS. There is a reason for that.

BOS business markets are slow to come back. They are doing just a fraction of the schedule to business markets like NYC/DC/Chicago/Philly compared to pre-COVID. DL is not in a hurry to add back BOS business routes, so JetBlue can take its time adding back capacity to those markets. Major shift of its focus back to NYC.

What have we seen in NYC?
DL slow to add back LGA due to non-existent corporate demand. Even slower adding back JFK due to collapsed international demand. No more 717s. Apparently
AA giving up a lot of slots at JFK and effectively dehubbing it.
UA slowly to add back EWR capacity and have minimal presence at LGA
No WN to worry about at EWR and JFK
No ULCC to worry about at JFK

Everything has opened up for B6 at NYC. DTW/MSP/DFW is less about picking a fight with DL in JFK-DTW/MSP and more about completing their network at JFK. I've been harping on them about adding these markets for a while now.

After they add these 3 markets and enter Europe, they are basically just missing CLT in their network. The biggest knock against B6 in NYC has always been that they don't fly to enough places. Especially for securing corporate contracts and now they will at least have token presence everywhere. If they can just get a few more LGA slots, then they can enter LGA-ORD and be a legitimate competitor in the business market to the legacy carriers. All this could be accomplished by 2022. A big difference compared to pre-COVID when they are boxed in at NYC with limited growth areas. They were just going to lose out more and more DL in NYC over time. It's a much bigger deal to DL than just JFK-DTW/MSP. Better to play offensive against DL at NYC and forcing DL to add back JFK quickly rather than play defensively at BOS like they were doing pre-COVID.

As for EWR, these are obvious moves for them to do. I'm just surprised they did not add more island stuff. I would imagine once they are certain the islands are not closing down traffic again, they will start adding stuff like PUJ/MBJ/CUN/AUA. I think they've been planning this move for a while. They got the extra space with new terminal 1 opening up and WN not around to fight for gates. This looks like they are aiming at minimum a 60 flight operation. Maybe they can go even higher than that. UA is going to take a while to get back to over 400 flights. JetBlue has until at least 2022 to add flights without worrying that NY airspace will be jammed up again.

Goal here for JetBlue should be a legitimate 3rd option for ff and businesses in NY area and a legitimate 2nd option for ff and businesses in NJ area. Looks like they are even thinking of moving into PA, which is probably a terrible idea.


Thanks for your analysis! My how quickly things changed in just a few months, where we were contemplating B6's defense of BOS and its need to increase JFK slot utilization. The pandemic has completely changed the dynamics. Wow.

Here are some thoughts from me:

JFK - With the additions of DTW, MSP, and DFW, along with the BNA addition (announced pre-pandemic), B6 will have significant domestic coverage. Combined with the growing LatAm network (I assume GUA will still come on-line at some point), and London next year, B6 will really have a robust network. AA's reported draw-down will give B6 even more opportunity to consolidate its position and be a more fierce competitor against DL. It will be interesting to see how DL responds....where does JFK fit in terms of their priorities?

EWR - I mean....wow! We always spoke about how great it would be to see Mint there, but now that it's actually happening I'm pretty stunned. B6 will now be able to tout lie-flat service from both NYC airports to LAX and SFO - which AA, UA, and DL cannot tout. I bet we'll see AS pushed out of these markets from EWR, and perhaps even JFK. PHX/SAN are truly out of left field, and I'm not sure how well they will perform (especially PHX, where B6 has traditionally been weak). It's great to see them also adding LAS, AUS, CHS, JAX, and SRQ. These will all do well.

Overall thoughts on NYC - I love seeing B6 re-focusing here. As a New Yorker I have been disappointed with some of B6's moves in NYC over the past few years (especially the draw-down of LGA Florida flying, which looks like it's coming back with the addition of TPA/RSW), but these new moves give me hope. The aggressiveness from both JFK and EWR is great to see. Clearly there are huge opportunities to be had here with AA returning slots and gates becoming available at EWR. Great to see them fill in the vacuum.

FLL - I'm not sure what to make about the return to PIT. B6 tried this before, but it sucked. What changed? Great to see PDX/SEA get added though....hopefully SEA can eventually get to daily, and perhaps earn Mint.

PHL - Super confused by this. What does B6 have to gain by competing in super low-yield Florida/SJU flying? Makes no sense, other than to piss AA/NK/F9 off I suppose.

PVD - Good to see growth to all 5 major Florida markets. This is natural and long overdue IMO.

PBI-ORD - Interesting move. B6 has a pretty strong presence at PBI, and FLL-ORD seems to be doing okay, so this could work.

PBI-PIT - Even more mystifying than the return of FLL-PIT. What the hell?

RSW-CLE - Again, what the hell? B6 is pretty strong at RSW, but FLL-CLE is a below-average performer, so I don't see what makes them think that this will work. I know that Midwesterners generally prefer the Gulf Coast compared to the Atlantic Coast of Florida, but this still seems strange to me.

MCO-SFO - Super confused by this. Other than trying to knock AS out, this serves little purpose IMO. I can't see how this does better than MCO-LAX, which is a terrible market for B6 (and everyone else).

Overall, I think the NYC moves are very smart, but it's a bit of a mixed bag with the other additions. I'm still not sure what to make of it, and I'm still uncertain about how quickly demand will pick back up. COVID cases are at highs in Florida, California, Texas, Arizona - all markets that B6 is adding to - so they'll need to watch those numbers closely. New York is finally in a good spot, but it will take a long time for tourism and business travel to return to anywhere near normal, and there is always the risk of a "second wave". I hope that is all works out, but I have my doubts.
 
jetbluefan1
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:53 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
FSDan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
" So if they want to expand at EWR, they need to add more flights. I'd love to see LAX or SFO, but not sure if they have enough mint aircraft around for even 4x on EWR-LAX. Aside from that, stuff like PUJ/MBJ/KIN/CUN/AUA/BGI(more than 1x weekly) all seem to things they can try internationally. And domestically, I think leisure places and large WN stations are all places they can target like MSY/AUS/LAS/SAN and also places they have large enough presence like BUF/JAX/CHS/ACK."
- I got a lot of these EWR markets right. Basically, only missed PHX/SRQ.


Nice call!

tphuang wrote:
AA giving up a lot of slots at JFK and effectively dehubbing it.


Has there been any confirmation of this, or just a strong suspicion (given AA's recent history at JFK, and the recent return of a large number of JFK slots)?



Somebody returned 70 slots.

Unknown.

People are connecting the dots


Fascinating (but not at all surprising).

In addition to the slots, another big question is what happens to that giant Terminal 8? It's already a ghost town.
 
tphuang
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 3:04 pm

klm617 wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:
klm617 wrote:

I would much rather connect at JFK than BOS. Remember at JFK you have more options in case of a missed connection as most carriers have multiple flights into JFK where as in BOS a missed connection and you are screwed.


What B6 partner that flys JFK-Europe offers multiple flight options that don’t offer those same options BOS-Europe. There’s only two B6 partners to Europe - Aer Lingus & Icelandair - and both have multiple flights at JFK & BOS. In fact with FI there’s more flights from BOS than JFK.


Here are the code share partners you can't tell me BOS has better coverage than JFK.

Aer Lingus
Aeroflot
Air China
Air India
All Nippon Airways
Asiana Airlines
Austrian Airlines
Azul Brazilian Airlines
El Al
Emirates
Etihad Airways
EVA Air
Japan Airlines
JSX
Hawaiian Airlines
Hainan Airlines
Iberia
Icelandair
Korean Air
Lufthansa
Porter Airlines
South African Airways
Swiss International Air Lines
Singapore Airlines
TAP Air Portugal
Turkish Airlines

Keep in mind that it's far easier for people to make connections at BOS from C to E vs JFK, where they are only co-terminaled with HA/EI/TP. It's going to be that way until they start and finish the T5 to T7 project. Also these within perimeter routes out of JFK are normally 2x daily. Which means they are geared more toward O&D rather than connection. BOS-DTW will continue to have more frequency which makes connection easier.

hiflyeras wrote:
Has anyone considered that B6 is doing this to prod consolidation? Nothing works better to push a much larger competitor to make you disappear than poking them with a stick.

That's why you do it now when all the legacies are short on cash. Note how they make no effort to challenge WN anywhere? Besides, UA trying to merge with B6 at this point will get DOJ noticed. Can't think of more obvious move to eliminate competitor.
 
trueblew
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 3:08 pm

tphuang wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
Looks like a final push to throw Alaska out of FLL too. All great adds. They really need to make EWR a co terminal and continue a huge push into it.

Another one I'm surprised people missed. This is a huge attack on AS.

They are basically looking to push AS off MCO-SFO, EWR-LAX/SFO/SAN. Given what we've seen from AS in the cali-transcon market, I think there is a good shot they will be able to do that.

And adding PDX-FLL before AS and adding SEA-FLL.

CLE-RSW and ORD-PBI seem like real oddballs here.


I agree with your oddballs statement. I would have expected to see RSW to MSP before CLE, and ORD to, well, just about anywhere other than PBI.
 
AMALH747430
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 3:10 pm

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jetblue- ... 16872.html

I agree with this article’s bottom line. Kirby is an aggressive guy. He’ll respond to this and when he does B6 will have to evaluate whether EWR is worth it. B6 may not be so keen on this fight if UA decides to ramp up SFO/LAX - BOS. This is a pretty easy move for B6 right now and it will be easy to back away from too if it doesn’t work.

Kirby isn’t Jeff Smisek and he isn’t Gerard Arpey. He’ll react.
Last edited by AMALH747430 on Fri Jun 19, 2020 3:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
AMALH747430
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 3:16 pm

In addition to my previous post, it looks like B6 will still have an aggressive DL to contend with at BOS. B6s operation wasn’t the most reliable pre SARS-CoV-2 and many were questioning their long term viability. A few extra flights from EWR doesn’t fix those fundamentals. They’re the East coast’s AS and are a thorn in UA and DL’s sides, but I don’t see them doing anything to destroy the long term viability of the NY area’s largest hub airlines.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/delta-air ... ocus-city/
 
catiii
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 3:22 pm

hiflyeras wrote:
Has anyone considered that B6 is doing this to prod consolidation? Nothing works better to push a much larger competitor to make you disappear than poking them with a stick.


I know it's an A.net wet dream that UA and B6 merge, but that was not at all the motivation here. UA's strategy in NY/NJ is in flux and B6 is taking advantage of the fact that they can disrupt the EWR TCON market and fill a void following WN's surrender in EWR. They're going to crush it in EWR. And as smart as Scott Kirby is, he couldn't make NYC work for AA and it's looking like he's going to have the same challenges at UA.
 
AMALH747430
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 3:57 pm

catiii wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
Has anyone considered that B6 is doing this to prod consolidation? Nothing works better to push a much larger competitor to make you disappear than poking them with a stick.


I know it's an A.net wet dream that UA and B6 merge, but that was not at all the motivation here. UA's strategy in NY/NJ is in flux and B6 is taking advantage of the fact that they can disrupt the EWR TCON market and fill a void following WN's surrender in EWR. They're going to crush it in EWR. And as smart as Scott Kirby is, he couldn't make NYC work for AA and it's looking like he's going to have the same challenges at UA.


The a.net wet dream that I keep seeing come up is that UA is going to somehow abandon EWR. That’s not likely to happen. The Newark hub has been around since PeoplExpress was merged into CO in the late 80s. Since then it has remained the largest single airline hub, and the only comprehensive short hall and long-haul single airport hub for a single airline in the New York area. CO did just fine in NY with a hub at EWR, service to hubs at LGA, and no JFK presence. B6 is a disruptor but they’re not invincible. DLs NYC buildup came after B6 was already well established. UA and DL each carry almost double the passengers B6 does in the NYC area.
 
clrd4t8koff
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 4:10 pm

klm617 wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:
klm617 wrote:

I would much rather connect at JFK than BOS. Remember at JFK you have more options in case of a missed connection as most carriers have multiple flights into JFK where as in BOS a missed connection and you are screwed.


What B6 partner that flys JFK-Europe offers multiple flight options that don’t offer those same options BOS-Europe. There’s only two B6 partners to Europe - Aer Lingus & Icelandair - and both have multiple flights at JFK & BOS. In fact with FI there’s more flights from BOS than JFK.


Here are the code share partners you can't tell me BOS has better coverage than JFK.

Aer Lingus
Aeroflot
Air China
Air India
All Nippon Airways
Asiana Airlines
Austrian Airlines
Azul Brazilian Airlines
El Al
Emirates
Etihad Airways
EVA Air
Japan Airlines
JSX
Hawaiian Airlines
Hainan Airlines
Iberia
Icelandair
Korean Air
Lufthansa
Porter Airlines
South African Airways
Swiss International Air Lines
Singapore Airlines
TAP Air Portugal
Turkish Airlines


You clearly don’t understand where Europe is. The original post I quoted said:

x1234 wrote:
FINALLY DTW-JFK so I can use JFK as a gateway to Europe!


Please enlighten all of us how CA, AI, NH, OZ, Azul, LY, EY, BR, JL, JSX, HU, HA, KE, PD, SA or SQ will connect someone flying B6 DTW-JFK-Europe? :roll:
 
catiii
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 4:41 pm

AMALH747430 wrote:
catiii wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
Has anyone considered that B6 is doing this to prod consolidation? Nothing works better to push a much larger competitor to make you disappear than poking them with a stick.


I know it's an A.net wet dream that UA and B6 merge, but that was not at all the motivation here. UA's strategy in NY/NJ is in flux and B6 is taking advantage of the fact that they can disrupt the EWR TCON market and fill a void following WN's surrender in EWR. They're going to crush it in EWR. And as smart as Scott Kirby is, he couldn't make NYC work for AA and it's looking like he's going to have the same challenges at UA.


The a.net wet dream that I keep seeing come up is that UA is going to somehow abandon EWR. That’s not likely to happen. The Newark hub has been around since PeoplExpress was merged into CO in the late 80s. Since then it has remained the largest single airline hub, and the only comprehensive short hall and long-haul single airport hub for a single airline in the New York area. CO did just fine in NY with a hub at EWR, service to hubs at LGA, and no JFK presence. B6 is a disruptor but they’re not invincible. DLs NYC buildup came after B6 was already well established. UA and DL each carry almost double the passengers B6 does in the NYC area.


I never said they were going to abandon EWR and I certainly don't think that's the case. Nor do I think B6 is invincible. What B6 is very good at though is disrupting the premium and core TCON space, especially in markets where the fares and product are not customer friendly and in markets with little competition. UA has a virtual lock on the premium and core TCON product ex. EWR (Alaska isn't even in the same league from a product standpoint). Kudos to DL and UA for what they've done in NYC, but they're shrinking now and that presents tremendous opportunities for JetBlue.

Notionally though to think, as the poster referenced, that B6 is doing this to spur UA to engage in M&A with B6 is farcical and certainly not reflective of how the world works. If B6 wanted to engage in M&A with UA they'd just call them.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 4:56 pm

How did this thread become about united abandoning Newark?

What a joke this website has become. A sad freaking joke
 
VS11
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 4:58 pm

catiii wrote:
Notionally though to think, as the poster referenced, that B6 is doing this to spur UA to engage in M&A with B6 is farcical and certainly not reflective of how the world works. If B6 wanted to engage in M&A with UA they'd just call them.


Not exactly. If jetBlue wants to put itself on the market, they would hire investment bankers/advisors to do a "strategic review". This is typically the widespread signal that a sale or some sort of corporate action is on the table. The bankers will then feel out the market.
 
hiflyeras
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 5:03 pm

B6 is a bug compared to UA...and they could easily treat them as such if this were any other times. It's a ballsy move by B6 and is going to drain a lot of their cash. I'm surprised their creditors (including the US govt if they took a loan) aren't looking at this with interest and maybe a bit of derision. Let's go blow Uncle Sam's money on trying to build a new hub in the city with the biggest UA hub in their system. It's nuts.
 
tphuang
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 5:17 pm

hiflyeras wrote:
B6 is a bug compared to UA...and they could easily treat them as such if this were any other times. It's a ballsy move by B6 and is going to drain a lot of their cash. I'm surprised their creditors (including the US govt if they took a loan) aren't looking at this with interest and maybe a bit of derision. Let's go blow Uncle Sam's money on trying to build a new hub in the city with the biggest UA hub in their system. It's nuts.

what makese you think it will drain them a lot of cash? Do you have any evidence to make that statement? And EWR is definitely not UA's largest hub.
 
VS11
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 5:22 pm

hiflyeras wrote:
B6 is a bug compared to UA...and they could easily treat them as such if this were any other times. It's a ballsy move by B6 and is going to drain a lot of their cash. I'm surprised their creditors (including the US govt if they took a loan) aren't looking at this with interest and maybe a bit of derision. Let's go blow Uncle Sam's money on trying to build a new hub in the city with the biggest UA hub in their system. It's nuts.


It is ballsy but certainly not nuts. It is quite predictable and jetBlue is not the only company making this move. It was pretty obvious months ago that the larger airlines would shrink. Delta said so themselves. This "shrinkage" presents an opportunity for smaller carriers, which is really what's happening in the marketplace.
 
N766UA
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 5:25 pm

hiflyeras wrote:
B6 is a bug compared to UA...and they could easily treat them as such if this were any other times. It's a ballsy move by B6 and is going to drain a lot of their cash. I'm surprised their creditors (including the US govt if they took a loan) aren't looking at this with interest and maybe a bit of derision. Let's go blow Uncle Sam's money on trying to build a new hub in the city with the biggest UA hub in their system. It's nuts.


I'm sorry, what? Airplanes sitting in the desert doing f%$k all is how you lose money. Adapting your business and taking the initiative is exactly what the airline business needs to be doing right now. Plus it keeps employees working, thus giving the gov't a return on their investment.

But I guess you'd rather spend Uncle Sam's money on flight crews who are sitting at home doing absolutely nothing.
 
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STT757
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 5:49 pm

B6 while looking to grow their NYC market share, is also taking a big grab of the New Jersey market. New Jersey is a small state split into two markets, New York City and Philadelphia. B6 announced they're growing both EWR and PHL. That's really going to raise their profile.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
tphuang
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 6:12 pm

Hi, it's been a long time. Hope you are doing well.
jetbluefan1 wrote:
Thanks for your analysis! My how quickly things changed in just a few months, where we were contemplating B6's defense of BOS and its need to increase JFK slot utilization. The pandemic has completely changed the dynamics. Wow.

Here are some thoughts from me:

JFK - With the additions of DTW, MSP, and DFW, along with the BNA addition (announced pre-pandemic), B6 will have significant domestic coverage. Combined with the growing LatAm network (I assume GUA will still come on-line at some point), and London next year, B6 will really have a robust network. AA's reported draw-down will give B6 even more opportunity to consolidate its position and be a more fierce competitor against DL. It will be interesting to see how DL responds....where does JFK fit in terms of their priorities?

EWR - I mean....wow! We always spoke about how great it would be to see Mint there, but now that it's actually happening I'm pretty stunned. B6 will now be able to tout lie-flat service from both NYC airports to LAX and SFO - which AA, UA, and DL cannot tout. I bet we'll see AS pushed out of these markets from EWR, and perhaps even JFK. PHX/SAN are truly out of left field, and I'm not sure how well they will perform (especially PHX, where B6 has traditionally been weak). It's great to see them also adding LAS, AUS, CHS, JAX, and SRQ. These will all do well.

Overall thoughts on NYC - I love seeing B6 re-focusing here. As a New Yorker I have been disappointed with some of B6's moves in NYC over the past few years (especially the draw-down of LGA Florida flying, which looks like it's coming back with the addition of TPA/RSW), but these new moves give me hope. The aggressiveness from both JFK and EWR is great to see. Clearly there are huge opportunities to be had here with AA returning slots and gates becoming available at EWR. Great to see them fill in the vacuum.

Yeah I think EWR-PHX is probably the most iffy there that they added. I would've liked to see them add MSY or RDU instead. But there is time for more. I'm sure more island flying is coming for winter if they continue to prioritize NY/NJ here.

Not sure what they are going to do with LGA-TPA/RSW once BOS business demand comes back. Maybe they will have more slots by then.

FLL - I'm not sure what to make about the return to PIT. B6 tried this before, but it sucked. What changed? Great to see PDX/SEA get added though....hopefully SEA can eventually get to daily, and perhaps earn Mint.

I don't think they should've cut PIT to begin with. Maybe they are thinking WN will cut PIT soon, which would allow them to just compete against NK here. As for the other two, they seem to be hard to do in wintertime with A320. Unless they put A321 or A220 here, these are going to quickly become tech stop specials.

PHL - Super confused by this. What does B6 have to gain by competing in super low-yield Florida/SJU flying? Makes no sense, other than to piss AA/NK/F9 off I suppose.

There might be a PA angle here. Try the water and see if their expansion at EWR will allow them to gain some customers in south NJ and central/Eastern PA. Not a completely terrible idea, but I think most of these won't stick around. could just be a play toward the entire population of NJ.
PBI-ORD - Interesting move. B6 has a pretty strong presence at PBI, and FLL-ORD seems to be doing okay, so this could work.

PBI-PIT - Even more mystifying than the return of FLL-PIT. What the hell?

RSW-CLE - Again, what the hell? B6 is pretty strong at RSW, but FLL-CLE is a below-average performer, so I don't see what makes them think that this will work. I know that Midwesterners generally prefer the Gulf Coast compared to the Atlantic Coast of Florida, but this still seems strange to me.

MCO-SFO - Super confused by this. Other than trying to knock AS out, this serves little purpose IMO. I can't see how this does better than MCO-LAX, which is a terrible market for B6 (and everyone else).

These ones were the strangest for me. The Florida ones look like short term cash grabs. For ORD, maybe they are hoping to be able to utilize 2 gates at some point. For PIT/CLE, would be nice if they build up in one of these 2 places. Minimal legacy presence and WN not that strong either.
 
FSDan
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 6:15 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
JFK - With the additions of DTW, MSP, and DFW, along with the BNA addition (announced pre-pandemic), B6 will have significant domestic coverage. Combined with the growing LatAm network (I assume GUA will still come on-line at some point), and London next year, B6 will really have a robust network. AA's reported draw-down will give B6 even more opportunity to consolidate its position and be a more fierce competitor against DL. It will be interesting to see how DL responds....where does JFK fit in terms of their priorities?


JFK is, and will continue to be, a high priority for DL. DL's not about to give up on their plan to be NYC's preferred carrier because of this temporary demand slump. They're investing billions into their LGA terminal, already invested a significant chunk of change into their JFK terminal not all that long ago, and are going to be keeping JFK around as their primary transatlantic gateway.

As for response, though, I'm not sure how aggressive they'll be. I wouldn't be surprised to see mostly A220s on JFK-MSP/DTW, but I'd guess these routes carry a higher percentage of connecting traffic for DL than O&D, and largely flows that B6 can't replicate with their network at that.
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 7:08 pm

HNLSLCPDX wrote:
Also, hopefully with these adds to all these leisure markets, I hope B6 doesn’t start cheapening their brand. I could definitely see them doing more of a Spirit like operation. I understand that leisure travel will be returning faster than business, but still will be interesting to see the path B6 takes going forward.

Wouldn't business travel restore faster than leisure travel? At least that seems to be the situation in other countries
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jayunited
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 7:19 pm

N766UA wrote:
I'm sorry, what? Airplanes sitting in the desert doing f%$k all is how you lose money. Adapting your business and taking the initiative is exactly what the airline business needs to be doing right now. Plus it keeps employees working, thus giving the gov't a return on their investment.

But I guess you'd rather spend Uncle Sam's money on flight crews who are sitting at home doing absolutely nothing.


No you can fly every airplane and still loose money as well.

I just returned from Florida with 4 of my friend and my husband (quarantine fatigue). We all booked roundtrip tickets on NK for $15 dollars each way so $30 dollars roundtrip plus we paid the $35 dollar fee for a carry-on bag each way. All total my my flight ORD-FLL-ORD cost me a grand total of $100 dollars both flights were almost full. Is NK generating a profit off $15 dollar fares and $35 dollar carry-on fees I don't know. I do know if UA took them on at those prices UA would loose. Although I work for UA even I could not pass up a deal like that and I wasn't going to risk flying standby because once a flight hits 70% capacity UA stops clearing nonrevs.

Right now this recovery is all about the leisure market and we have a ton of armchair CEO's (myself included) who thinks UA should be flying more than what we are. I've changed my opinion on the matter I think UA is doing exactly what we need to do which is wait this out. It may seem like UA is loosing because we are not fighting NK, WN, F9, and B6 for every single leisure passengers. The truth is if UA were to fully engage it would bankrupt us because although UA also flies ORD-FLL if we took on NK head on at $15 dollar fares we would loose money even if we filled every single seat with a paying customer. UA can not magically become a low cost or niche carrier so for now the best place for UA's planes is on the ground at our hubs and in the desert and flying cargo only flights.

Also what no one is talking about on a.netters is what happens after Labor Day when leisure traffic drops off? As of right now UA has not completed our September or October schedule, will leisure demand defy the odds and hold or will there be a drop at some point? As much as I would love to see UA jump into this fight head first I think Kirby is making the right decision although we have seen a bump in demand for summer 2020 we have to keep in mind fall and winter are coming. Even if demand holds in September and October, airlines are still going to be dealing with the fallout from COVID-19 come January 2021. I can promise you come January if there is no vaccine leisure demand is going to drop off a cliff until the start of spring break 2021, UA needs to conserve its cash and focus on getting the daily burn rate down now. Come January 2021 if UA is till burning $45 million dollars daily we are going to be in big trouble. Now is not the time to get into a fight and burn cash needlessly trying to lure leisure travelers away from NK or B6. Now is the time for an airline like UA to be smart and and survive and not try to be the jack of all trades.
 
evank516
Posts: 2122
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 7:26 pm

FSDan wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
JFK - With the additions of DTW, MSP, and DFW, along with the BNA addition (announced pre-pandemic), B6 will have significant domestic coverage. Combined with the growing LatAm network (I assume GUA will still come on-line at some point), and London next year, B6 will really have a robust network. AA's reported draw-down will give B6 even more opportunity to consolidate its position and be a more fierce competitor against DL. It will be interesting to see how DL responds....where does JFK fit in terms of their priorities?


JFK is, and will continue to be, a high priority for DL. DL's not about to give up on their plan to be NYC's preferred carrier because of this temporary demand slump. They're investing billions into their LGA terminal, already invested a significant chunk of change into their JFK terminal not all that long ago, and are going to be keeping JFK around as their primary transatlantic gateway.

As for response, though, I'm not sure how aggressive they'll be. I wouldn't be surprised to see mostly A220s on JFK-MSP/DTW, but I'd guess these routes carry a higher percentage of connecting traffic for DL than O&D, and largely flows that B6 can't replicate with their network at that.


JFK-MSP (pre-COVID) was a mix of A220s and 717s as it is, so I'm assuming that the 717s will phase out and move to A220s almost entirely, with the odd A319 or A320 maybe thrown in too. JFK-DTW was heavily RJ pre-COVID, and in recent years lacked year-round mainline. It was only this year that they plugged in an A220 AND a 717 into JFK-DTW with about 3 or 4 other CR9 options, which as I said many times before, is very, very odd for DL to do on a hub to hub route. I would hope to see less CR9s and more A220s on JFK-DTW.
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3309
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 7:52 pm

FSDan wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
JFK - With the additions of DTW, MSP, and DFW, along with the BNA addition (announced pre-pandemic), B6 will have significant domestic coverage. Combined with the growing LatAm network (I assume GUA will still come on-line at some point), and London next year, B6 will really have a robust network. AA's reported draw-down will give B6 even more opportunity to consolidate its position and be a more fierce competitor against DL. It will be interesting to see how DL responds....where does JFK fit in terms of their priorities?


JFK is, and will continue to be, a high priority for DL. DL's not about to give up on their plan to be NYC's preferred carrier because of this temporary demand slump. They're investing billions into their LGA terminal, already invested a significant chunk of change into their JFK terminal not all that long ago, and are going to be keeping JFK around as their primary transatlantic gateway.

As for response, though, I'm not sure how aggressive they'll be. I wouldn't be surprised to see mostly A220s on JFK-MSP/DTW, but I'd guess these routes carry a higher percentage of connecting traffic for DL than O&D, and largely flows that B6 can't replicate with their network at that.


Yeah, I didn't mean to imply that NYC wouldn't be a priority. But there are two big things working against DL in comparison to B6 (at least with respect to their NYC networks): (1) significant exposure to international travel, which is virtually nonexistent now, and is expected to take a lot longer to recover compared to domestic travel, and (2) significant exposure to domestic business markets - which will also take a very long time to recover (and, perhaps, will never fully recover if the shift to telecommuting for a swath of the labor force becomes permanent). B6's NYC network is very much focused on VFR/leisure travel - which will likely be first to bounce back - so they do have a relative advantage here. If DL wants to defend NYC (which they will), it's going to be pretty costly, as they won't be able to rely on the normal traffic flows to keep their operations profitable.

tphuang wrote:
Hi, it's been a long time. Hope you are doing well.
Yeah I think EWR-PHX is probably the most iffy there that they added. I would've liked to see them add MSY or RDU instead. But there is time for more. I'm sure more island flying is coming for winter if they continue to prioritize NY/NJ here.


Thanks, hope you're doing well too! I took a break from the site for awhile since I was so depressed by all the news and its impact on our beloved industry. But I couldn't stay away after seeing this huge move by B6.

I'm surprised MSY/RDU weren't included in this announcement. Those seem like much more obvious adds than PHX (or even SAN), but I suppose B6 looked at UA's capacity reductions and decided that these were the most appropriate markets. It's quite bold.

tphuang wrote:
Not sure what they are going to do with LGA-TPA/RSW once BOS business demand comes back. Maybe they will have more slots by then.


I think it's going to take a very long time for business demand to come back, so this seems like a good use of the slots in the meantime. They may also think that some competitors will return or sell slots in order to raise cash.

tphuang wrote:
I don't think they should've cut PIT to begin with. Maybe they are thinking WN will cut PIT soon, which would allow them to just compete against NK here. As for the other two, they seem to be hard to do in wintertime with A320. Unless they put A321 or A220 here, these are going to quickly become tech stop specials.


It does seem that WN is reducing its FLL schedule further, so dropping PIT doesn't seem too far-fetched, and this could perhaps be that final nudge. I don't see how PDX/SEA can operate in the winter without tech stops....that's a long flight. I think FLL-SEA will now be their longest domestic route.

tphuang wrote:
There might be a PA angle here. Try the water and see if their expansion at EWR will allow them to gain some customers in south NJ and central/Eastern PA. Not a completely terrible idea, but I think most of these won't stick around. could just be a play toward the entire population of NJ.


It's not a terrible idea, they can see what sticks. Certainly easy to drop these markets if they don't work, or if the aircraft are needed elsewhere. I wonder if AA will even bother to respond.

tphuang wrote:
These ones were the strangest for me. The Florida ones look like short term cash grabs. For ORD, maybe they are hoping to be able to utilize 2 gates at some point. For PIT/CLE, would be nice if they build up in one of these 2 places. Minimal legacy presence and WN not that strong either.


I agree that PIT/CLE are good opportunities. However, I'm pretty sure that both have stagnant (or shrinking) populations, so they may feel it's not worth it, and better to focus on NYC/BOS/FLL metros. But if these new one-offs work out, maybe they'll try something else.

It's also possible that B6 is looking at the benefit of growing its PBI and RSW operations, which are already quite robust to begin with. RSW will now have service to CLE, PVD, PHL, LGA, JFK, EWR, HPN, BOS, and DCA. PBI will have service to same (swap CLE out for ORD/PIT). I may be missing a few markets, but that's a pretty nice network. When the A220 comes on-line they could even try flying out to LAX, SFO, LAS, and add markets like RDU and AUS.
 
kavok
Posts: 814
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:06 pm

tphuang wrote:
klm617 wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:

What B6 partner that flys JFK-Europe offers multiple flight options that don’t offer those same options BOS-Europe. There’s only two B6 partners to Europe - Aer Lingus & Icelandair - and both have multiple flights at JFK & BOS. In fact with FI there’s more flights from BOS than JFK.


Here are the code share partners you can't tell me BOS has better coverage than JFK.

Aer Lingus
Aeroflot
Air China
Air India
All Nippon Airways
Asiana Airlines
Austrian Airlines
Azul Brazilian Airlines
El Al
Emirates
Etihad Airways
EVA Air
Japan Airlines
JSX
Hawaiian Airlines
Hainan Airlines
Iberia
Icelandair
Korean Air
Lufthansa
Porter Airlines
South African Airways
Swiss International Air Lines
Singapore Airlines
TAP Air Portugal
Turkish Airlines

Keep in mind that it's far easier for people to make connections at BOS from C to E vs JFK, where they are only co-terminaled with HA/EI/TP. It's going to be that way until they start and finish the T5 to T7 project. Also these within perimeter routes out of JFK are normally 2x daily. Which means they are geared more toward O&D rather than connection. BOS-DTW will continue to have more frequency which makes connection easier.

hiflyeras wrote:
Has anyone considered that B6 is doing this to prod consolidation? Nothing works better to push a much larger competitor to make you disappear than poking them with a stick.

That's why you do it now when all the legacies are short on cash. Note how they make no effort to challenge WN anywhere? Besides, UA trying to merge with B6 at this point will get DOJ noticed. Can't think of more obvious move to eliminate competitor.


You need to remember the vast majority of DTW/MSP pax who will be taking B6 from DTW/MSP to BOS/JFK connecting to TATL LCC/ME3/Intl. are either VFR or low fare leisure travelers. These pax typically make their purchase decisions by price and schedule in that order.

The fact that Boston is a slightly easier connection is something that most of that passenger group wouldn’t even think to consider, let alone make a decision on. If B6 and their partners can offer low prices at convenient schedules, there is a decent amount of low fare traffic that can be captured from both DTW/MSP.

Given the lack of any LCC options in DTW and few options in MSP, and the obvious fact that AA/DL/UA won’t provide connections to those LCC, there is definitely a market for B6 to offer that connecting leg to BOS/JFK while picking up some O/D of its own. And JFK offers even more LCC/ME3 options that may work better cost or schedule wise.

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