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glideslope900
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CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:30 pm

With the October 1st deadline approaching, airlines will soon have to take the steps to furlough mass amounts of employees. Many have already taken preliminary steps (UA, DL).

What is the consensus that the CARES Act airline aid will be extended? Will the government allow mass layoffs a month before an election? It will not create good headlines. On the otherhand, perhaps democrats will let the aid expire to hurt the economy and Trump. Should be interesting to watch.

One analyst says that airlines will likely not receive additional aid due to the amount of money they are losing.

Thoughts?
 
Miamiairport
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:37 pm

My belief is that it's going to get messy if the government continually bails out one industry but not others. I don't see it being extended.
 
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:42 pm

My belief is that we will look back at these summer 2020 days as the 'best of times' with respect to the arch of this pandemic and its ramifications.

50% or more of the members of this forum will have lost their job, their house, their health insurance, their retirement plan, or all the above, by summer 2021.
© 2020. All statements are my own. The use of my statements, including by journalists, YouTube vloggers like "DJ's Aviation", etc. without my written consent is strictly prohibited.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:52 pm

Airlines need to shrink and CARES is only dragging things out. Additionally, the program is not a 1:1 replacement of labor cost anyhow, hence why airlines are so desperate to get voluntary departures and leaves of absences to reduce the gap.

Should Congress be inclined to provide any support, imo it should be via unemployment benefits, and other programs directly to those impacted, not any aid to the industry.
It's silly to have to maintain a bloated workforce when companies are a fraction of size. It only adds to long term inefficiency and pain, hampering critical restructuring.
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Noreaster99
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:58 pm

Well said, it makes sense to help the unemployed instead of dictating what the airlines should do
 
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Polot
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:01 pm

CARES act was initiated under the belief that there will be a V shape recovery, and that by this Fall things would be much better, with the act just covering for the airlines between then.

That is not looking like it will be the case. Any new stimulus would be more general, likely targeted specifically towards those unemployed, than specific to the airline industry.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:14 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Should Congress be inclined to provide any support, imo it should be via unemployment benefits, and other programs directly to those impacted, not any aid to the industry.
It's silly to have to maintain a bloated workforce when companies are a fraction of size. It only adds to long term inefficiency and pain, hampering critical restructuring.


I'm not a big fan of industry-specific bail-outs (not CARES Act, not the 9/11 grants, nor the 9/11 loan guarantees received by America West - Doug Parker's first trip to the Federal teat - and US Airways) but you can't have the whole domestic industry implode, either. It's too big a country to drive everywhere, and outside of the Northeast Corridor high-speed rail is a joke.

https://www.americanactionforum.org/ins ... ation-act/

But, I'm with you - it's time to get on with the shrinking.

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
My belief is that we will look back at these summer 2020 days as the 'best of times' with respect to the arch of this pandemic and its ramifications.

50% or more of the members of this forum will have lost their job, their house, their health insurance, their retirement plan, or all the above, by summer 2021.


Do you think that a.net industry employment skews particularly junior, or skews to the less-skilled in the industry that are more at risk of being furloughed? The business next summer will have employment smaller than it did 3/2020, but surely greater than 50% of what it was. If a major U.S. airline CEO has pointed to 50% employment cutbacks by next summer please cite the source. Parker last week was still talking about 10-20%.

As for the OP's question on Democrats wanting to sink Trump through unemployment, it was the Democrats who structured the CARES Act for airline grants, loan guarantees, and employment guarantees. Trump's stimulus idea was a payroll tax cut - useful only if you're still working. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/trump-p ... s-say.html
 
Miamiairport
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:22 pm

As far as Parker's statements that was with the idea that International would start back up. Doesn't seem as though that's happening until the fall or even into 2021. I think shrinking any airline by only 10% to 20% is wishful thinking. Also the legacies do not have the cost structure of an ULCC. At some point if the higher end Y pax and paid premium pax isn't there in sufficient number the US3 won't be keep up the new added capacity, lose a ton of money and expect the government to back fill the rest.
 
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enilria
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:20 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Airlines need to shrink and CARES is only dragging things out. Additionally, the program is not a 1:1 replacement of labor cost anyhow, hence why airlines are so desperate to get voluntary departures and leaves of absences to reduce the gap.

Should Congress be inclined to provide any support, imo it should be via unemployment benefits, and other programs directly to those impacted, not any aid to the industry.
It's silly to have to maintain a bloated workforce when companies are a fraction of size. It only adds to long term inefficiency and pain, hampering critical restructuring.

I don’t see another bail out unless the virus makes a strong fall come back and air travel is suspended.
 
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Lemieux
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:21 pm

Can say at the very least the layoffs have started at AA, have had a few friends of mine text me saying they were told today they were no longer needed.
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Miamiairport
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:45 pm

Lemieux wrote:
Can say at the very least the layoffs have started at AA, have had a few friends of mine text me saying they were told today they were no longer needed.


Does CARES cover management and non flight professional staff? I believe AA already announced a 30% reduction in administrative, management and support staff.
 
USAirKid
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:02 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
Should Congress be inclined to provide any support, imo it should be via unemployment benefits, and other programs directly to those impacted, not any aid to the industry.
It's silly to have to maintain a bloated workforce when companies are a fraction of size. It only adds to long term inefficiency and pain, hampering critical restructuring.


I'm not a big fan of industry-specific bail-outs (not CARES Act, not the 9/11 grants, nor the 9/11 loan guarantees received by America West - Doug Parker's first trip to the Federal teat - and US Airways) but you can't have the whole domestic industry implode, either. It's too big a country to drive everywhere, and outside of the Northeast Corridor high-speed rail is a joke.

https://www.americanactionforum.org/ins ... ation-act/

But, I'm with you - it's time to get on with the shrinking.


I tend to view much of the CARES Act for the airlines as an airline managed unemployment program. This helped the state agencies by removing a chunk of employees from immediately needing to apply for unemployment. It helped the airlines by giving them time to negotiate and structure early retirement programs so that on the pilot side they could minimize a cascading tide of retraining to do as pilots had to bid down to other equipment and be retrained.
 
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Lemieux
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:28 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
Lemieux wrote:
Can say at the very least the layoffs have started at AA, have had a few friends of mine text me saying they were told today they were no longer needed.


Does CARES cover management and non flight professional staff? I believe AA already announced a 30% reduction in administrative, management and support staff.

Right, they're still on payroll until 10/1 so technically not laid off yet, but no longer coming to work
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CRJ5000
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:52 pm

Airlines were in a way lucky that they were economically impacted far more quickly than most other industries as they got their bailout early. I can’t imagine a second bailout now when nearly every other industry has been impacted so hard by the pandemic. Americans already generally view airlines in a negative light so additional money thrown their way will not please the vast majority of the population (and voters). The amount of jobs saved from another bailout of the airline industry would be a drop in the bucket compared to the jobs lost throughout the country in all industries.
 
dfw88
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:07 pm

Lemieux wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
Lemieux wrote:
Can say at the very least the layoffs have started at AA, have had a few friends of mine text me saying they were told today they were no longer needed.


Does CARES cover management and non flight professional staff? I believe AA already announced a 30% reduction in administrative, management and support staff.

Right, they're still on payroll until 10/1 so technically not laid off yet, but no longer coming to work


This is correct. The CARES Act does cover all airline employees. AA management and support staff were given the option to take a voluntary package or to be let go as of October 1. However, in order to streamline the process for everyone remaining the last day for those who have been laid off is sometime in July. They will continue to be on payroll until October 1 and receive 100% of their salary to that time, however, in keeping with the requirement of the CARES Act.
 
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janders
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:31 pm

The airline sector will be down for years to come, and the companies need to restructure which means reduced workforces. CARES Act bought everyone some time to figure out how to implement things, but now its time to put plans into action.

For those unfortunate employees, probably the best option if the government wants to implement something additional it would be via IU or other programs, though honestly not sure why airline employees should be treated any differently than others facing the same predicament. We have other entire sectors that have been decimated in recent months as well.
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NWAESC
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:43 pm

Any future aid should be aimed at the populace in general, and not at any given industry or corporation.
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PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:06 pm

I honestly think we are looking at a 5-10 year recovery to get anywhere close to 2019 numbers on a global scale.
 
maverick4002
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:27 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
My belief is that we will look back at these summer 2020 days as the 'best of times' with respect to the arch of this pandemic and its ramifications.

50% or more of the members of this forum will have lost their job, their house, their health insurance, their retirement plan, or all the above, by summer 2021.


Why do you say this? Genuinely asking here. I've heard people say the worst is yet to come but I havent seen an explanation per say. Care to give a cliffs note overview?
 
airhansa
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:31 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I honestly think we are looking at a 5-10 year recovery to get anywhere close to 2019 numbers on a global scale.


Globally, there will be a significant shift from air to rail, so it probably won't be a 'recovery' in much of Europe and Asia.
 
enplaned
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:36 pm

It's hard to make the case that the govt should continue to support the jobs of those who make a lot money. On average, airline employees make more than the avg US citizen. This is, of course, skewed by pilot wages, but that's the point - how can you justify paying a $200K pilot to not work when there are millions of unemployed.

Further, while the US needs to ensure the airline industry keeps flying, it doesn't need to support airline equity investors. If airlines go into Ch 11 they keep flying, meanwhile all their contracts (other than wages) can be adjusted in the bankruptcy court process. The govt should be the lender of last resort - but only for carriers in Ch 11.

The US is likely to be, for the foreseeable future, a place where Covid is, if not rampant, then endemic, subject to periodic flareups which may suppress economic recovery or at least that of the airline biz, for sometime to come. Honestly, we don't know how the US public will react to this dramatic increase in cases. Will they, at some point, become frightened, or will the remain blase.

It's worth noting that many airlines are taking people this summer to hotspots - Florida, Vegas, Arizona, California - all great places to go if you want to catch Covid and take it back with you to wherever. You may not catch Covid on an aircraft, since, especially if everyone has a mask, it seems like a pretty safe environment due to HEPA filters and whatnot. But you may well catch it in Florida or wherever and bring it back with you. Air travel doesn't seem to be uniquely helpful in that regard in the middle of this flare up in cases.
 
enplaned
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:38 pm

airhansa wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I honestly think we are looking at a 5-10 year recovery to get anywhere close to 2019 numbers on a global scale.


Globally, there will be a significant shift from air to rail, so it probably won't be a 'recovery' in much of Europe and Asia.


Uh... get back to us when you've built a railroad linking S.E. Asia. Even where there's no sea in between, the topography tends to be challenging and the necessary infrastructure investment on the "oh my god" scale.
 
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ztarizona
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:03 am

I realize this is kind of out there and call me on it if this has been tried in the past... in my backyard in Arizona we have about maybe 10 major health system(s). Former competitors who are *mostly* nonprofits but a few for-profits. The state essentially nationalized their capacity and the health systems voluntarily are coordinating with one another to not create a surge-like situation where one hospital is overrun while another is not full.

Has anything like this ever happened in the United States where all the major airlines in a region, I am thinking DL, WN and AA at PHX could in a way, *share* capacity so as to not cause mass bankruptcies for any single one. I realize this would be a major antitrust issue, but if they shrank their capacity on PHX-MSP for example, to three flights a day spread out among WN, DL, AA. It seems like it could be for the greater good rather than the race to the bottom capitalist situation. However this is totally unorthodox in the business world today. May not even work or may just plug the hole

But curious if airlines have any pretext for cooperating in such a manner in prior crises ?
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MIflyer12
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:26 am

ztarizona wrote:
I realize this would be a major antitrust issue, but if they shrank their capacity on PHX-MSP for example, to three flights a day spread out among WN, DL, AA. It seems like it could be for the greater good rather than the race to the bottom capitalist situation. However this is totally unorthodox in the business world today. May not even work or may just plug the hole

But curious if airlines have any pretext for cooperating in such a manner in prior crises ?


Coordination of schedules, capacity, or pricing would be flat-out illegal. Period. Carriers need to find a way to survive in a capitalist world, not with cartel-enforced or government-regulated pricing. A.net so, so often looks to the monopolist, cartel model I can't believe it.
 
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Rookie87
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:52 am

glideslope900 wrote:
With the October 1st deadline approaching, airlines will soon have to take the steps to furlough mass amounts of employees. Many have already taken preliminary steps (UA, DL).

What is the consensus that the CARES Act airline aid will be extended? Will the government allow mass layoffs a month before an election? It will not create good headlines. On the otherhand, perhaps democrats will let the aid expire to hurt the economy and Trump. Should be interesting to watch.

One analyst says that airlines will likely not receive additional aid due to the amount of money they are losing.

Thoughts?


It won't just be the airline industry. Most industries will be (some already have been) laying off massive amounts of employees. If anything, like some pointed out above, money would be better pumped in to unemployment compensation or *should be.

Sidenote: just because a pilot makes 200K doesn't mean his/her job should not be protected because of his or her salary. He or she put in the time and money to be at the salary that they're at, period.
 
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ztarizona
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:54 am

Actually, what the government is doing with the airlines right now is essentially kicking the can down the road economically for these airlines, a form of socialism for them. The airlines are essentially already a regulated cartel. The politically connected airlines and powerful employee lobbying unions welcomed the government in to give them grants or special loans and the government turned around and put conditions on who can be fired and when, and in some cases is forcing airlines to fly around with empty planes which is not good for the environment. So we are arguing about two different forms of crony capitalism - where you aim to provide stable jobs for the most amount of people OR where you socialize the losses among the taxpayers and privatize the gains among airline management when airlines go under entirely. Is what Arizona is doing among the hospitals (former competitors) in our state true capitalism? Of course not. It is ironic considering the states' leanings politically.

It will be interesting to see which road they take, or if they leave the airlines to their own devices and let capitalism play out, which obviously is the "way it should be" but we have a trigger-happy Federal Reserve eager to proclaim a "this is fine, everything is OK" stance when in fact we are far from fine and what they have done is essentially put off the inevitable for a period of time. Do not count me as one of the "A.net" you speak of, capitalism for the airlines would maybe do them some good based on the way they us customers.
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Lemieux
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:58 am

dfw88 wrote:
Lemieux wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:

Does CARES cover management and non flight professional staff? I believe AA already announced a 30% reduction in administrative, management and support staff.

Right, they're still on payroll until 10/1 so technically not laid off yet, but no longer coming to work


This is correct. The CARES Act does cover all airline employees. AA management and support staff were given the option to take a voluntary package or to be let go as of October 1. However, in order to streamline the process for everyone remaining the last day for those who have been laid off is sometime in July. They will continue to be on payroll until October 1 and receive 100% of their salary to that time, however, in keeping with the requirement of the CARES Act.

Yeah the 100% pay through 10/1 was an option given to them, (and originally, the only option) but they offered a revised version of the early out packages to those who were involuntarily separated, similar in benefits, just not as lucrative.
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eamondzhang
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:01 am

airhansa wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I honestly think we are looking at a 5-10 year recovery to get anywhere close to 2019 numbers on a global scale.


Globally, there will be a significant shift from air to rail, so it probably won't be a 'recovery' in much of Europe and Asia.

Not going to happen when virus spreads faster in a train carriage than in a plane. You certainly don't have much clue on how air circulates in a train carriage especially HSRs.

Michael
Last edited by eamondzhang on Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:02 am

maverick4002 wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
My belief is that we will look back at these summer 2020 days as the 'best of times' with respect to the arch of this pandemic and its ramifications.

50% or more of the members of this forum will have lost their job, their house, their health insurance, their retirement plan, or all the above, by summer 2021.


Why do you say this? Genuinely asking here. I've heard people say the worst is yet to come but I havent seen an explanation per say. Care to give a cliffs note overview?


Go watch the latest episode of John Oliver on YouTube. Evictions just starting. Foreclosures just starting. The US can't even tame the first wave of the virus because 40% of them are idiots. Negative interest rates are coming. So while many in this forum may be at the top of the food chain, no one is running from this one. The DJIA can't lie about the status of the market for much longer.

Trust me, these are the best of times compared to what is coming.
© 2020. All statements are my own. The use of my statements, including by journalists, YouTube vloggers like "DJ's Aviation", etc. without my written consent is strictly prohibited.
 
airhansa
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:13 am

eamondzhang wrote:
airhansa wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I honestly think we are looking at a 5-10 year recovery to get anywhere close to 2019 numbers on a global scale.


Globally, there will be a significant shift from air to rail, so it probably won't be a 'recovery' in much of Europe and Asia.

Not going to happen when virus spreads faster in a train carriage than in a plane. You certainly don't have much clue on how air circulates in a train carriage especially HSRs.

Michael


HST are going to be more modern than regular trains and tend to have similar air systems to planes (for high speed the train cabin is actually pressurized), whereas regular trains will have the benefit of more room and windows. It'll be far more detrimental to planes and buses than trains.

Furthermore viruses don't generally spread as "gas" that an air filer picks up, but from person to person who are in near contact. Social distancing and the like is far more easy on a train than on a plane (and more cost effective too).

http://www.dlr.de/content/en/articles/n ... rains.html
 
airhansa
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:15 am

enplaned wrote:
airhansa wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I honestly think we are looking at a 5-10 year recovery to get anywhere close to 2019 numbers on a global scale.


Globally, there will be a significant shift from air to rail, so it probably won't be a 'recovery' in much of Europe and Asia.


Uh... get back to us when you've built a railroad linking S.E. Asia. Even where there's no sea in between, the topography tends to be challenging and the necessary infrastructure investment on the "oh my god" scale.


It's not that there wouldn't be any air travel whatsoever, but that in there will be a significant shift towards rail travel to the point that we won't see pre-coronavirus numbers back.
 
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ztarizona
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:31 am

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
maverick4002 wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Trust me, these are the best of times compared to what is coming.



Absolutely correct :checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:
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klm617
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:52 am

enplaned wrote:
It's hard to make the case that the govt should continue to support the jobs of those who make a lot money. On average, airline employees make more than the avg US citizen. This is, of course, skewed by pilot wages, but that's the point - how can you justify paying a $200K pilot to not work when there are millions of unemployed.

Further, while the US needs to ensure the airline industry keeps flying, it doesn't need to support airline equity investors. If airlines go into Ch 11 they keep flying, meanwhile all their contracts (other than wages) can be adjusted in the bankruptcy court process. The govt should be the lender of last resort - but only for carriers in Ch 11.

The US is likely to be, for the foreseeable future, a place where Covid is, if not rampant, then endemic, subject to periodic flareups which may suppress economic recovery or at least that of the airline biz, for sometime to come. Honestly, we don't know how the US public will react to this dramatic increase in cases. Will they, at some point, become frightened, or will the remain blase.

It's worth noting that many airlines are taking people this summer to hotspots - Florida, Vegas, Arizona, California - all great places to go if you want to catch Covid and take it back with you to wherever. You may not catch Covid on an aircraft, since, especially if everyone has a mask, it seems like a pretty safe environment due to HEPA filters and whatnot. But you may well catch it in Florida or wherever and bring it back with you. Air travel doesn't seem to be uniquely helpful in that regard in the middle of this flare up in cases.


Contrary to popular belief airline worker wages are not that great.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
winginit
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:08 am

klm617 wrote:
enplaned wrote:
It's hard to make the case that the govt should continue to support the jobs of those who make a lot money. On average, airline employees make more than the avg US citizen. This is, of course, skewed by pilot wages, but that's the point - how can you justify paying a $200K pilot to not work when there are millions of unemployed.

Further, while the US needs to ensure the airline industry keeps flying, it doesn't need to support airline equity investors. If airlines go into Ch 11 they keep flying, meanwhile all their contracts (other than wages) can be adjusted in the bankruptcy court process. The govt should be the lender of last resort - but only for carriers in Ch 11.

The US is likely to be, for the foreseeable future, a place where Covid is, if not rampant, then endemic, subject to periodic flareups which may suppress economic recovery or at least that of the airline biz, for sometime to come. Honestly, we don't know how the US public will react to this dramatic increase in cases. Will they, at some point, become frightened, or will the remain blase.

It's worth noting that many airlines are taking people this summer to hotspots - Florida, Vegas, Arizona, California - all great places to go if you want to catch Covid and take it back with you to wherever. You may not catch Covid on an aircraft, since, especially if everyone has a mask, it seems like a pretty safe environment due to HEPA filters and whatnot. But you may well catch it in Florida or wherever and bring it back with you. Air travel doesn't seem to be uniquely helpful in that regard in the middle of this flare up in cases.


Contrary to popular belief airline worker wages are not that great.


That's a very broad brush to use as there are very obvious discrepancies between say corporate folks and senior pilots compared to gate agents and ramp workers. I do think it's fair to say that the average airline employee makes more than the national average.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:43 am

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
maverick4002 wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
My belief is that we will look back at these summer 2020 days as the 'best of times' with respect to the arch of this pandemic and its ramifications.

50% or more of the members of this forum will have lost their job, their house, their health insurance, their retirement plan, or all the above, by summer 2021.


Why do you say this? Genuinely asking here. I've heard people say the worst is yet to come but I havent seen an explanation per say. Care to give a cliffs note overview?


Go watch the latest episode of John Oliver on YouTube. Evictions just starting. Foreclosures just starting. The US can't even tame the first wave of the virus because 40% of them are idiots. Negative interest rates are coming. So while many in this forum may be at the top of the food chain, no one is running from this one. The DJIA can't lie about the status of the market for much longer.

Trust me, these are the best of times compared to what is coming.

The financial system is due for a shock.

It does amaze me how my fellow Americans cannot follow simple rules. It is a mask, not a chin guard...

Although compared to prior per capita death rates, this isn't that scary. Then again, I listened to my grandparents as they confessed their depression experiences and their fights with the Spanish Influenza and Hong Kong flu. Many of my grandfather's friends who died of the first flu weren't counted.

The issue was the credit bubble (pumping money, huge trade imbalances). First, we're going to have currencies float to where they should be. That means pricier food and yea.. These are still the good times.

Lightsaber
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PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:58 am

Layoffs in the white collar sectors that are only starting to ramp-up.. 2nd half of 2020 is going to be a bloodshed in corporate America.
 
WNCrew
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:21 am

ztarizona wrote:

Carriers need to find a way to survive in a capitalist world, not with cartel-enforced or government-regulated pricing. A.net so, so often looks to the monopolist, cartel model I can't believe it.[/quote]

LOL... so airlines need to find a way to be successful, but not major corporations or financial institutions... those we can bail out?
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
Gremlinzzzz
Posts: 63
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:35 am

airhansa wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
airhansa wrote:

Globally, there will be a significant shift from air to rail, so it probably won't be a 'recovery' in much of Europe and Asia.

Not going to happen when virus spreads faster in a train carriage than in a plane. You certainly don't have much clue on how air circulates in a train carriage especially HSRs.

Michael


HST are going to be more modern than regular trains and tend to have similar air systems to planes (for high speed the train cabin is actually pressurized), whereas regular trains will have the benefit of more room and windows. It'll be far more detrimental to planes and buses than trains.

Furthermore viruses don't generally spread as "gas" that an air filer picks up, but from person to person who are in near contact. Social distancing and the like is far more easy on a train than on a plane (and more cost effective too).

http://www.dlr.de/content/en/articles/n ... rains.html
Commuter rail the world over, is a venture that is largely subsidized by government. Aviation as an industry is a venture that tries to actually make money. I cannot see how it is as a matter, more cost effective.
 
airhansa
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:46 am

Gremlinzzzz wrote:
airhansa wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
Not going to happen when virus spreads faster in a train carriage than in a plane. You certainly don't have much clue on how air circulates in a train carriage especially HSRs.

Michael


HST are going to be more modern than regular trains and tend to have similar air systems to planes (for high speed the train cabin is actually pressurized), whereas regular trains will have the benefit of more room and windows. It'll be far more detrimental to planes and buses than trains.

Furthermore viruses don't generally spread as "gas" that an air filer picks up, but from person to person who are in near contact. Social distancing and the like is far more easy on a train than on a plane (and more cost effective too).

http://www.dlr.de/content/en/articles/n ... rains.html
Commuter rail the world over, is a venture that is largely subsidized by government. Aviation as an industry is a venture that tries to actually make money. I cannot see how it is as a matter, more cost effective.


By large, Asian and European commuter rail systems aren't subsidized by government, in fact they do the subsidizing of local and rural rail services. You're akin to something like "government subsidized flights from NYC to LDN" when in fact those flights subsidize Y PAX and even entire airlines (BA).

Aviation doesn't have any sort of comparison because it doesn't usually perform essential flights, except postal mail and flights to isolated areas such as islands.

Even Indian Railways is making a profit (though I believe it was as small as $0.01 at one point and the aim is more balancing books).
 
Gremlinzzzz
Posts: 63
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:59 pm

airhansa wrote:
Gremlinzzzz wrote:
airhansa wrote:

HST are going to be more modern than regular trains and tend to have similar air systems to planes (for high speed the train cabin is actually pressurized), whereas regular trains will have the benefit of more room and windows. It'll be far more detrimental to planes and buses than trains.

Furthermore viruses don't generally spread as "gas" that an air filer picks up, but from person to person who are in near contact. Social distancing and the like is far more easy on a train than on a plane (and more cost effective too).

http://www.dlr.de/content/en/articles/n ... rains.html
Commuter rail the world over, is a venture that is largely subsidized by government. Aviation as an industry is a venture that tries to actually make money. I cannot see how it is as a matter, more cost effective.


By large, Asian and European commuter rail systems aren't subsidized by government, in fact they do the subsidizing of local and rural rail services. You're akin to something like "government subsidized flights from NYC to LDN" when in fact those flights subsidize Y PAX and even entire airlines (BA).

Aviation doesn't have any sort of comparison because it doesn't usually perform essential flights, except postal mail and flights to isolated areas such as islands.

Even Indian Railways is making a profit (though I believe it was as small as $0.01 at one point and the aim is more balancing books).
Consumers are not using rail because it is essential, they use it because it is convenient and saves time.

The advent of low cost carriers has seen travel explode and eventually spring up local economies across Europe to a far greater degree than could have ever happened at bottom of the barrel prices. You are not going to replace a direct flight on ever more fuel efficient jets by connecting three or four trains between countries if not more.

As for subsidy, it happen, and a lot. Which is my point, that commuter rail as an entity cannot survive on its own without subsidy from the government in any given country. And not for a long time because you eventually need to lay more tracks, you need to service tracks...........government spending! When it comes to airlines, and transport in general, people paying a premium have almost always subsidized those on less premium travel plans. Profitable routes have been used to sustain less profitable routes if they eventually bring in more clients into the fold as the business continues to expand. This is not only in travel, it is something that is being taken to the extreme when it comes to start ups too i.e. be a loss maker for some time to gain market share and eventually become a unicorn.

This is why you see low cost working on short haul routes but unable to make a huge dent when it comes to long haul. Norwegian, Air Asia X, Nok Scoot et all are not breaking the grapple hold the bigger full service carriers have because there is nothing to fall back on when it comes to that high net worth client.
 
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DL747400
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:09 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
ztarizona wrote:
I realize this would be a major antitrust issue, but if they shrank their capacity on PHX-MSP for example, to three flights a day spread out among WN, DL, AA. It seems like it could be for the greater good rather than the race to the bottom capitalist situation. However this is totally unorthodox in the business world today. May not even work or may just plug the hole

But curious if airlines have any pretext for cooperating in such a manner in prior crises ?


Coordination of schedules, capacity, or pricing would be flat-out illegal. Period. Carriers need to find a way to survive in a capitalist world, not with cartel-enforced or government-regulated pricing. A.net so, so often looks to the monopolist, cartel model I can't believe it.


I think you may have misunderstood or misinterpreted his post. My take (and he can correct me if I'm wrong) is he's asking whether the airlines could be given temporary ATI allowing them to coordinate schedules and capacity (not pricing) as a way to help the industry survive the pandemic. I didn't read his comments as a proposal that airlines adopt this as their new, ongoing business model. Doing this might reduce or even eliminate the need for additional government loans/grants and might also lessen the probability of U.S. carriers needing to file for C11 in the next few years.
From First to Worst: The history of Airliners.net.

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Silver1SWA
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:28 pm

CARES was an attempt to hit the pause button so everyone could catch their breath on the downward spiral, allowing the airlines to survive the initial shock. I think at the time most assumed this would be a 1-2 month problem and that 6 months would give us a clearer picture of how recovery would go. Since demand practically went from 100-0 overnight through no fault of the airlines, the assumption was things could easily snap back once the situation was under control. Airlines can’t lay-off/furlough significant portions of the workforce or stop operating and ramp back up quickly so to ensure the possibility of meeting rapidly increasing demand on the other side they had a legitimate case for help.

Now that we are half way through CARES we have a better understanding that recovery will not be a best case, snap back scenario so unless there is some miracle that changes that outlook by September where the airlines could argue they need just a few more months to get back to 100%, I don’t see another round of help.
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 494
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:43 pm

Well there's the US4 and other than maybe B6 and AS all other airlines are going to be forced into a Chapter 11 reorganization or a Chapter 11 wind down assuming demand does not recover. The events of the past couple of weeks do not bode well for the industry. The question is what will the government do or even more so allow to keep the US4 alive? Pre packaged bankruptcy with type of some government exit financing (through the Fed)? Forced shotgun mergers? Allow airlines to coordinate schedules so there isn't a bloodbath on routes? Lot's of unanswered questions and part of much bigger problem. The only exit strategy to CARES and the entire mess was that the virus would go away in a few months and business would quickly resume to previous levels. Gotta wonder will the Fed print $10 trillion or so to bail out what is becoming a total collapse of industry after industry.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:05 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I honestly think we are looking at a 5-10 year recovery to get anywhere close to 2019 numbers on a global scale.



Based on what? Just curious.

That brings us out to 2025-2030, and I think it is only fair to ask what factors you use to make a prediction that bold
 
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:14 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I honestly think we are looking at a 5-10 year recovery to get anywhere close to 2019 numbers on a global scale.



Based on what? Just curious.

That brings us out to 2025-2030, and I think it is only fair to ask what factors you use to make a prediction that bold


It took WWII for the US to finally get out of the Great Depression. I think 5-10 years is still optimistic. Please don't underestimate the number of people who are posting here right now who will be homeless within 48 months.
© 2020. All statements are my own. The use of my statements, including by journalists, YouTube vloggers like "DJ's Aviation", etc. without my written consent is strictly prohibited.
 
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jfklganyc
Posts: 5864
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:16 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I honestly think we are looking at a 5-10 year recovery to get anywhere close to 2019 numbers on a global scale.
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:20 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:

It took WWII for the US to finally get out of the Great Depression. I think 5-10 years is still optimistic. Please don't underestimate the number of people who are posting here right now who will be homeless within 48 months.



Absolutely. We are not close to seeing the full effect of this yet. A month ago I was somewhat more optimistic about the prospects of Leisure travel picking up some of the slack in a post-corporate travel economy. Not so much now as it becoming more and more apparent that the economic shifts post C19 are not temporary.

We'll see a return of some traffic, but it will not look like last year.
"Nous ne sommes pas infectés. Il n'y a pas d'infection ici..."
 
Vicenza
Posts: 67
Joined: Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:21 pm

Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:36 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
ztarizona wrote:
I realize this would be a major antitrust issue, but if they shrank their capacity on PHX-MSP for example, to three flights a day spread out among WN, DL, AA. It seems like it could be for the greater good rather than the race to the bottom capitalist situation. However this is totally unorthodox in the business world today. May not even work or may just plug the hole

But curious if airlines have any pretext for cooperating in such a manner in prior crises ?


Coordination of schedules, capacity, or pricing would be flat-out illegal. Period. .


Then what is the purpose of so many JV's?
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4652
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:37 pm

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:

It took WWII for the US to finally get out of the Great Depression. I think 5-10 years is still optimistic. Please don't underestimate the number of people who are posting here right now who will be homeless within 48 months.



Absolutely. We are not close to seeing the full effect of this yet. A month ago I was somewhat more optimistic about the prospects of Leisure travel picking up some of the slack in a post-corporate travel economy. Not so much now as it becoming more and more apparent that the economic shifts post C19 are not temporary.

We'll see a return of some traffic, but it will not look like last year.

Absolute lunacy. The whole world isn’t going to start staying in their villages. The vaccine is still coming.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4652
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:40 pm

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:

It took WWII for the US to finally get out of the Great Depression. I think 5-10 years is still optimistic. Please don't underestimate the number of people who are posting here right now who will be homeless within 48 months.



Absolutely. We are not close to seeing the full effect of this yet. A month ago I was somewhat more optimistic about the prospects of Leisure travel picking up some of the slack in a post-corporate travel economy. Not so much now as it becoming more and more apparent that the economic shifts post C19 are not temporary.

We'll see a return of some traffic, but it will not look like last year.

Absolute lunacy. The whole world isn’t going to start staying in their villages. The vaccine is still coming.

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