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usa330300
Posts: 70
Joined: Thu Dec 17, 2009 2:29 pm

Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:08 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Airlines need to shrink and CARES is only dragging things out. Additionally, the program is not a 1:1 replacement of labor cost anyhow, hence why airlines are so desperate to get voluntary departures and leaves of absences to reduce the gap.

Should Congress be inclined to provide any support, imo it should be via unemployment benefits, and other programs directly to those impacted, not any aid to the industry.
It's silly to have to maintain a bloated workforce when companies are a fraction of size. It only adds to long term inefficiency and pain, hampering critical restructuring.


Airlines never can shrink to profitability or survival.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4702
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:24 pm

When this looked shorter like a year or two to recover this made total sense. Now it's looking like passenger recovery imho could be quite a ways away it might not make any sense to keep such large payrolls. It's pretty clear the airlines will have large layoffs the day this money ends. Kind of defeats the whole point which was to avoid them needing to do that. It did make sense at the time but this is a very fast changing situation and I'm not sure extending makes too much sense. Tough times ahead I'm afraid
 
enplaned
Posts: 83
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2016 9:49 pm

Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:55 pm

usa330300 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
Airlines need to shrink and CARES is only dragging things out. Additionally, the program is not a 1:1 replacement of labor cost anyhow, hence why airlines are so desperate to get voluntary departures and leaves of absences to reduce the gap.

Should Congress be inclined to provide any support, imo it should be via unemployment benefits, and other programs directly to those impacted, not any aid to the industry.
It's silly to have to maintain a bloated workforce when companies are a fraction of size. It only adds to long term inefficiency and pain, hampering critical restructuring.


Airlines never can shrink to profitability or survival.


Not true. Consolidation and the increase in profitability that came with it depended on driving capacity from the industry.

And even if that were not true it true at an industry level. Blow away a couple of weak sisters and the remaining carriers enjoy greater demand. When Eastern went down, that was a great day for Delta and more generally for the rest of the survivors. When Ansett went down that was a fantastic day for Virgin Blue and Qantas.
 
crj900lr
Posts: 477
Joined: Fri Mar 18, 2011 1:44 am

Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:14 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
maverick4002 wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
My belief is that we will look back at these summer 2020 days as the 'best of times' with respect to the arch of this pandemic and its ramifications.

50% or more of the members of this forum will have lost their job, their house, their health insurance, their retirement plan, or all the above, by summer 2021.


Why do you say this? Genuinely asking here. I've heard people say the worst is yet to come but I havent seen an explanation per say. Care to give a cliffs note overview?


Go watch the latest episode of John Oliver on YouTube. Evictions just starting. Foreclosures just starting. The US can't even tame the first wave of the virus because 40% of them are idiots. Negative interest rates are coming. So while many in this forum may be at the top of the food chain, no one is running from this one. The DJIA can't lie about the status of the market for much longer.

Trust me, these are the best of times compared to what is coming.



Plain and simple, it's like this. If Biden wins then this virus will disappear almost instantly and things will go back to normal. If Trump wins again the virus will stay and supposedly get much worse and things will get worse. Will there be layoffs? Yeah, could an airline go under? Yeah, but the fine people in the media are making this virus to be much worse then it really is which has had a cascading effect on alot of things. The airline industry will recover, as it is currently doing now even through this, and gain momentum and get back to where it was before this nonsense started. Dont believe the hype.
 
glideslope900
Topic Author
Posts: 164
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2019 5:27 am

Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:33 am

crj900lr wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
maverick4002 wrote:

Why do you say this? Genuinely asking here. I've heard people say the worst is yet to come but I havent seen an explanation per say. Care to give a cliffs note overview?


Go watch the latest episode of John Oliver on YouTube. Evictions just starting. Foreclosures just starting. The US can't even tame the first wave of the virus because 40% of them are idiots. Negative interest rates are coming. So while many in this forum may be at the top of the food chain, no one is running from this one. The DJIA can't lie about the status of the market for much longer.

Trust me, these are the best of times compared to what is coming.



Plain and simple, it's like this. If Biden wins then this virus will disappear almost instantly and things will go back to normal. If Trump wins again the virus will stay and supposedly get much worse and things will get worse. Will there be layoffs? Yeah, could an airline go under? Yeah, but the fine people in the media are making this virus to be much worse then it really is which has had a cascading effect on alot of things. The airline industry will recover, as it is currently doing now even through this, and gain momentum and get back to where it was before this nonsense started. Dont believe the hype.


Exactly. Notice a lot of talk about “cases” but not “deaths.” And the 0.2% that did die were 95% elderly. This whole thing has been a massive over reaction driven by media fear, governors that want to CYA, and herd like mentality of the average person.

I believe pax numbers will continue to slowly improve. Looking at mid-late 2021/early 2022 for full recovery IMO. I think soon the American people will realize it is all BS. I bet the news outlets are raking in the dough right now though.
 
kavok
Posts: 814
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:16 am

glideslope900 wrote:
crj900lr wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:

Go watch the latest episode of John Oliver on YouTube. Evictions just starting. Foreclosures just starting. The US can't even tame the first wave of the virus because 40% of them are idiots. Negative interest rates are coming. So while many in this forum may be at the top of the food chain, no one is running from this one. The DJIA can't lie about the status of the market for much longer.

Trust me, these are the best of times compared to what is coming.



Plain and simple, it's like this. If Biden wins then this virus will disappear almost instantly and things will go back to normal. If Trump wins again the virus will stay and supposedly get much worse and things will get worse. Will there be layoffs? Yeah, could an airline go under? Yeah, but the fine people in the media are making this virus to be much worse then it really is which has had a cascading effect on alot of things. The airline industry will recover, as it is currently doing now even through this, and gain momentum and get back to where it was before this nonsense started. Dont believe the hype.


Exactly. Notice a lot of talk about “cases” but not “deaths.” And the 0.2% that did die were 95% elderly. This whole thing has been a massive over reaction driven by media fear, governors that want to CYA, and herd like mentality of the average person.

I believe pax numbers will continue to slowly improve. Looking at mid-late 2021/early 2022 for full recovery IMO. I think soon the American people will realize it is all BS. I bet the news outlets are raking in the dough right now though.


Quite the elaborate hoax indeed. So much so that Europe, Canada, Asia, and many other countries are all in on it too.... and they are all willing to tank their economies just so Trump looks bad. Very plausible.

Sorry, but as someone who has family who works in hospitals, and who has known people lost to this disease (who were not sick or elderly), I have little patience for the spreading of mistruths.
 
glideslope900
Topic Author
Posts: 164
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2019 5:27 am

Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:33 am

kavok wrote:
glideslope900 wrote:
crj900lr wrote:


Plain and simple, it's like this. If Biden wins then this virus will disappear almost instantly and things will go back to normal. If Trump wins again the virus will stay and supposedly get much worse and things will get worse. Will there be layoffs? Yeah, could an airline go under? Yeah, but the fine people in the media are making this virus to be much worse then it really is which has had a cascading effect on alot of things. The airline industry will recover, as it is currently doing now even through this, and gain momentum and get back to where it was before this nonsense started. Dont believe the hype.


Exactly. Notice a lot of talk about “cases” but not “deaths.” And the 0.2% that did die were 95% elderly. This whole thing has been a massive over reaction driven by media fear, governors that want to CYA, and herd like mentality of the average person.

I believe pax numbers will continue to slowly improve. Looking at mid-late 2021/early 2022 for full recovery IMO. I think soon the American people will realize it is all BS. I bet the news outlets are raking in the dough right now though.


Quite the elaborate hoax indeed. So much so that Europe, Canada, Asia, and many other countries are all in on it too.... and they are all willing to tank their economies just so Trump looks bad. Very plausible.

Sorry, but as someone who has family who works in hospitals, and who has known people lost to this disease (who were not sick or elderly), I have little patience for the spreading of mistruths.


So you don’t think it’s possible the authorities in Europe also over reacted out of fear?

My condolences but it is extremely rare that someone who is neither elderly or sick was lost.
 
kavok
Posts: 814
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:54 am

glideslope900 wrote:
kavok wrote:
glideslope900 wrote:

Exactly. Notice a lot of talk about “cases” but not “deaths.” And the 0.2% that did die were 95% elderly. This whole thing has been a massive over reaction driven by media fear, governors that want to CYA, and herd like mentality of the average person.

I believe pax numbers will continue to slowly improve. Looking at mid-late 2021/early 2022 for full recovery IMO. I think soon the American people will realize it is all BS. I bet the news outlets are raking in the dough right now though.


Quite the elaborate hoax indeed. So much so that Europe, Canada, Asia, and many other countries are all in on it too.... and they are all willing to tank their economies just so Trump looks bad. Very plausible.

Sorry, but as someone who has family who works in hospitals, and who has known people lost to this disease (who were not sick or elderly), I have little patience for the spreading of mistruths.


So you don’t think it’s possible the authorities in Europe also over reacted out of fear?

My condolences but it is extremely rare that someone who is neither elderly or sick was lost.


Of course they overreacted in a literal sense. But using that term is misleading. For instance, operating a plane is full of making maneuvers that (for safety purposes) are overreacting, because underreacting often ends tragically. (I.e. We don’t usually use the full runway, or fly without any spare fuel, etc.) we overact to be safe. Same with the virus.

I will say all data and evidence suggests Europe (compared to the US) appears to have much better control of the virus, a much lower death rate currently, and generally is not seeing many spikes or surges like the southern USA is experiencing. As far as death rates, the recent surge in the southern US does appear to be in younger populations thus far, which do tend to fare better in recovery. But we don’t know what the coming weeks will hold, and how many at risk people will be infected directly or indirectly by these young people. Further, if you are using deaths as a metric, it is too early to tell. Deaths tend to lag a few weeks after contraction, so it won’t be until mid July until we can accurately judge the severity of the current outbreak.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:12 am

jfklganyc wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I honestly think we are looking at a 5-10 year recovery to get anywhere close to 2019 numbers on a global scale.



Based on what? Just curious.

That brings us out to 2025-2030, and I think it is only fair to ask what factors you use to make a prediction that bold

I'm saying this and using the frame of reference for how long it took to recover from the two past major disruptions to impact the industry; 9/11 and the following economic downturn. the economic downturn/recession in 2008/2009.

2019 was the high water mark and broke records. Its going to take a long time to get to that level.

We still have the virus ranging on, we haven't really begun to see the full economic carnange, there is enormous amounts of government-printed money propping up the economy, and there are going to be fundamental shifts of business travel and leisure travel in the years ahead. Not to mention border closures, quarenteens, and other political theater for at least the next 12-24 months that are going to significantly impact international travel.

We'll get back to somewhere between 60-80% of 2019 hopefully in the next 12-24 months, but that last 20% to get back to the high water mark is going to be a very slow climb.
 
kavok
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:43 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I honestly think we are looking at a 5-10 year recovery to get anywhere close to 2019 numbers on a global scale.



Based on what? Just curious.

That brings us out to 2025-2030, and I think it is only fair to ask what factors you use to make a prediction that bold

I'm saying this and using the frame of reference for how long it took to recover from the two past major disruptions to impact the industry; 9/11 and the following economic downturn. the economic downturn/recession in 2008/2009.

2019 was the high water mark and broke records. Its going to take a long time to get to that level.

We still have the virus ranging on, we haven't really begun to see the full economic carnange, there is enormous amounts of government-printed money propping up the economy, and there are going to be fundamental shifts of business travel and leisure travel in the years ahead. Not to mention border closures, quarenteens, and other political theater for at least the next 12-24 months that are going to significantly impact international travel.

We'll get back to somewhere between 60-80% of 2019 hopefully in the next 12-24 months, but that last 20% to get back to the high water mark is going to be a very slow climb.


I agree. I think many believe that a vaccine is going to be a silver bullet, and that once it is available everyone will travel again.

In addition to the economic reasons you described, there is some misunderstanding on how a vaccine actually works. The first misconception is that most people believe that if they have been vaccinated, they can’t get the disease. This is not true for everyone, and most experts are predicting that the initial Covid vaccine will only be 70% effective. This means 3 out of every 10 people who get the shot will still get Covid if exposed. So not a silver bullet.

The real goal is to get to herd immunity, which the vaccine obviously helps significantly in achieving. But it probably won’t be enough to get all the way there. The second challenge is accounting for all the people who don’t get vaccine when it is available (antivaxers, religious objections, etc.) The more vaccinated a population, the lower the odds that those 3 in 10 people come in contact with someone with the disease. Again, herd immunity. I guess the point I am making is that while we will be in a much better place post-vaccine, Covid will still be out there and a risk. That reduced risk is going to still keep passenger numbers down somewhat, because certain groups will remain reluctant to travel as much.
 
32andBelow
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:54 am

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
DarkSnowyNight wrote:


Absolutely. We are not close to seeing the full effect of this yet. A month ago I was somewhat more optimistic about the prospects of Leisure travel picking up some of the slack in a post-corporate travel economy. Not so much now as it becoming more and more apparent that the economic shifts post C19 are not temporary.

We'll see a return of some traffic, but it will not look like last year.

Absolute lunacy. The whole world isn’t going to start staying in their villages. The vaccine is still coming.


All comical protestations aside, And What?

This is about state of the economy, not viral pathology. Although the latter certainly is not helping either.

Your pronouncements upthread are Blue Sky to the point of fantasy. If that is all you have, further discussion is surplus to our needs.

We have yet to see the passenger recovery stop or reverse. Still gaining week over week.
 
Silver1SWA
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:07 am

kavok wrote:
glideslope900 wrote:
kavok wrote:

Quite the elaborate hoax indeed. So much so that Europe, Canada, Asia, and many other countries are all in on it too.... and they are all willing to tank their economies just so Trump looks bad. Very plausible.

Sorry, but as someone who has family who works in hospitals, and who has known people lost to this disease (who were not sick or elderly), I have little patience for the spreading of mistruths.


So you don’t think it’s possible the authorities in Europe also over reacted out of fear?

My condolences but it is extremely rare that someone who is neither elderly or sick was lost.


Of course they overreacted in a literal sense. But using that term is misleading. For instance, operating a plane is full of making maneuvers that (for safety purposes) are overreacting, because underreacting often ends tragically. (I.e. We don’t usually use the full runway, or fly without any spare fuel, etc.) we overact to be safe. Same with the virus.

I will say all data and evidence suggests Europe (compared to the US) appears to have much better control of the virus, a much lower death rate currently, and generally is not seeing many spikes or surges like the southern USA is experiencing. As far as death rates, the recent surge in the southern US does appear to be in younger populations thus far, which do tend to fare better in recovery. But we don’t know what the coming weeks will hold, and how many at risk people will be infected directly or indirectly by these young people. Further, if you are using deaths as a metric, it is too early to tell. Deaths tend to lag a few weeks after contraction, so it won’t be until mid July until we can accurately judge the severity of the current outbreak.


Dang, now we are dooming and glooming a vaccine??

But seriously if a vaccine is available by the end of the year it will be perceived as rushed and there’s going to be loud resistance out of distrust. Especially if one miraculously gets approved before November. :duck:
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
BrokenJetbridge
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:25 am

As nice as it would be to have a job for a bit longer, I prefer getting furloughed now than later on to a further established recession with fewer jobs. The only way that I can see furloughs beIng minimized, would be with attractive early out options that would get the more senior employees to retire but thats rather unlikely to happen.
This Jetbridge is INOP
 
seat1a
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:47 am

What's happening at HA?
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 4:52 am

glideslope900 wrote:
With the October 1st deadline approaching, airlines will soon have to take the steps to furlough mass amounts of employees. Many have already taken preliminary steps (UA, DL).

What is the consensus that the CARES Act airline aid will be extended? Will the government allow mass layoffs a month before an election? It will not create good headlines. On the otherhand, perhaps democrats will let the aid expire to hurt the economy and Trump. Should be interesting to watch.

One analyst says that airlines will likely not receive additional aid due to the amount of money they are losing.

Thoughts?

Not a chance that this gets extended....
Too much to gain for some pols by having massive layoffs just before the election. Remember 2008?
DC does not care about people, or their suffering, only media narratives.
 
FlyingElvii
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Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:08 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
Should Congress be inclined to provide any support, imo it should be via unemployment benefits, and other programs directly to those impacted, not any aid to the industry.
It's silly to have to maintain a bloated workforce when companies are a fraction of size. It only adds to long term inefficiency and pain, hampering critical restructuring.


I'm not a big fan of industry-specific bail-outs (not CARES Act, not the 9/11 grants, nor the 9/11 loan guarantees received by America West - Doug Parker's first trip to the Federal teat - and US Airways) but you can't have the whole domestic industry implode, either. It's too big a country to drive everywhere, and outside of the Northeast Corridor high-speed rail is a joke.

https://www.americanactionforum.org/ins ... ation-act/

But, I'm with you - it's time to get on with the shrinking.

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
My belief is that we will look back at these summer 2020 days as the 'best of times' with respect to the arch of this pandemic and its ramifications.

50% or more of the members of this forum will have lost their job, their house, their health insurance, their retirement plan, or all the above, by summer 2021.


Do you think that a.net industry employment skews particularly junior, or skews to the less-skilled in the industry that are more at risk of being furloughed? The business next summer will have employment smaller than it did 3/2020, but surely greater than 50% of what it was. If a major U.S. airline CEO has pointed to 50% employment cutbacks by next summer please cite the source. Parker last week was still talking about 10-20%.

As for the OP's question on Democrats wanting to sink Trump through unemployment, it was the Democrats who structured the CARES Act for airline grants, loan guarantees, and employment guarantees. Trump's stimulus idea was a payroll tax cut - useful only if you're still working. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/trump-p ... s-say.html

The cuts are going to be dictated more by the pilot contracts, than even financial needs. The Majors need the regionals flying lots of routes right now to remain relevant and profitable, but the Union SCOPE clauses are preventing that from happening.
The Pilot unions are not going to budge on the percentage rules. They will happily sacrifice the younger regional pilots in order to keep the third wife, and second vacation home.

The brunt of the layoffs are going to be at the regionals, there are a lot of reasons for this. We could easily see a few regionals cease to exist, or folded into other carriers, in the next couple of months, especially with 50 seaters going away. You just can't keep subsidizing flying forever at these numbers, and winter is going to be BRUTAL for the US Airlines. Anyone who thinks it isn't is not paying attention.

Now, doom aside, there are a couple of signs of hope out there. Air Wisconsin has cut the number of downgrades, so much so that it looks like they could only have a few furloughs, if at all.
And SkyWest is just killing it... They are playing the non-union card, and the flexibility of the huge network to the hilt. Just take a look at how many OO planes are flying tomorrow afternoon, compared to the rest.
Hundreds of aircraft flying for all three majors.

These are unique times, and nothing is written in stone anymore. You could see some really strange deals pop up in the next couple of months.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:18 am

airhansa wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I honestly think we are looking at a 5-10 year recovery to get anywhere close to 2019 numbers on a global scale.


Globally, there will be a significant shift from air to rail, so it probably won't be a 'recovery' in much of Europe and Asia.

Rail is down for the same reason as planes. Covid Central station.

CAR TRAVEL and private charter flight is how it is going to be for the foreseeable future. Most 135 ops I know are flying every hour they can right now, and turning new customers away due to the lack of lift.
The Airbnb CEO stated on Monday that travel patterns have drastically and fundamentally changed. I have to agree.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:22 am

airhansa wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
airhansa wrote:

Globally, there will be a significant shift from air to rail, so it probably won't be a 'recovery' in much of Europe and Asia.

Not going to happen when virus spreads faster in a train carriage than in a plane. You certainly don't have much clue on how air circulates in a train carriage especially HSRs.

Michael


HST are going to be more modern than regular trains and tend to have similar air systems to planes (for high speed the train cabin is actually pressurized), whereas regular trains will have the benefit of more room and windows. It'll be far more detrimental to planes and buses than trains.

Furthermore viruses don't generally spread as "gas" that an air filer picks up, but from person to person who are in near contact. Social distancing and the like is far more easy on a train than on a plane (and more cost effective too).

http://www.dlr.de/content/en/articles/n ... rains.html

Never actually been in an L or Subway, have you...
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:04 am

Silver1SWA wrote:
kavok wrote:
glideslope900 wrote:

So you don’t think it’s possible the authorities in Europe also over reacted out of fear?

My condolences but it is extremely rare that someone who is neither elderly or sick was lost.


Of course they overreacted in a literal sense. But using that term is misleading. For instance, operating a plane is full of making maneuvers that (for safety purposes) are overreacting, because underreacting often ends tragically. (I.e. We don’t usually use the full runway, or fly without any spare fuel, etc.) we overact to be safe. Same with the virus.

I will say all data and evidence suggests Europe (compared to the US) appears to have much better control of the virus, a much lower death rate currently, and generally is not seeing many spikes or surges like the southern USA is experiencing. As far as death rates, the recent surge in the southern US does appear to be in younger populations thus far, which do tend to fare better in recovery. But we don’t know what the coming weeks will hold, and how many at risk people will be infected directly or indirectly by these young people. Further, if you are using deaths as a metric, it is too early to tell. Deaths tend to lag a few weeks after contraction, so it won’t be until mid July until we can accurately judge the severity of the current outbreak.


Dang, now we are dooming and glooming a vaccine??

But seriously if a vaccine is available by the end of the year it will be perceived as rushed and there’s going to be loud resistance out of distrust. Especially if one miraculously gets approved before November. :duck:



The moving goal posts.

A hallmark of this crisis and emblematic of our glued-to-our-phones society.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:18 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
airhansa wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I honestly think we are looking at a 5-10 year recovery to get anywhere close to 2019 numbers on a global scale.


Globally, there will be a significant shift from air to rail, so it probably won't be a 'recovery' in much of Europe and Asia.

Rail is down for the same reason as planes. Covid Central station.

CAR TRAVEL and private charter flight is how it is going to be for the foreseeable future. Most 135 ops I know are flying every hour they can right now, and turning new customers away due to the lack of lift.
The Airbnb CEO stated on Monday that travel patterns have drastically and fundamentally changed. I have to agree.



For the moment.

Most people dont have the time for extended car travel.

Most people dont have the money for Part 135 travel.

That’s why most people fly in coach.
 
orcajet
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:59 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
When this looked shorter like a year or two to recover this made total sense. Now it's looking like passenger recovery imho could be quite a ways away it might not make any sense to keep such large payrolls. It's pretty clear the airlines will have large layoffs the day this money ends. Kind of defeats the whole point which was to avoid them needing to do that. It did make sense at the time but this is a very fast changing situation and I'm not sure extending makes too much sense. Tough times ahead I'm afraid

A very apt analysis. Hindsight is, as usual, 20/20 and in this case it does seem like the inevitable was only postponed.
 
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:32 am

Anyone remember the post 9/11 security fees? Anyone want to bet airlines will charge a fee for "research to prevent future pandemics" after all this is said and done? They should after seeing one decimate their industry.
© 2020. All statements are my own. The use of my statements, including by journalists, YouTube vloggers like "DJ's Aviation", etc. without my written consent is strictly prohibited.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:06 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Most people dont have the money for Part 135 travel.


The problem will be that most people will not have the money to travel.

That is the problem when you lose your job. A lot of people especially in the US lost their job and it might not come back soon especially with the first wave still raging and coming winter it will be brutal for the people and therefore for the airlines.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:38 pm

orcajet wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
When this looked shorter like a year or two to recover this made total sense. Now it's looking like passenger recovery imho could be quite a ways away it might not make any sense to keep such large payrolls. It's pretty clear the airlines will have large layoffs the day this money ends. Kind of defeats the whole point which was to avoid them needing to do that. It did make sense at the time but this is a very fast changing situation and I'm not sure extending makes too much sense. Tough times ahead I'm afraid

A very apt analysis. Hindsight is, as usual, 20/20 and in this case it does seem like the inevitable was only postponed.



It is a ridiculous notion that the airlines didn’t need a bail out

It allowed things to stabilize and gave the various airlines time to prepare and formulate a plans

If no bailout was given, 80 percent of employees would have been let go immediately and a chain reaction of Bankruptcies would have occurred.

Like Europe. Or Canada. Or Latin America.

For all intents and purposes, the US airline industry has been the most stable through all of this. Come Oct 1, well-thought plans will be implemented.

There could still be a string of bankruptcies down the road...But the initial blow was stabilized and the ship righted
 
hl8208
Posts: 6
Joined: Fri Jan 29, 2016 5:34 pm

Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:14 pm

glideslope900 wrote:

Exactly. Notice a lot of talk about “cases” but not “deaths.” And the 0.2% that did die were 95% elderly. This whole thing has been a massive over reaction driven by media fear, governors that want to CYA, and herd like mentality of the average person.


Read: It doesn't matter to me that all these deaths could have been prevented because most everyone who died was old. Forget about the fact that people are losing grandparents, parents, husbands, wives, etc., because they were old and it was their time to go anyways. /s

"Herd mentality" in every country that has taken this virus as a serious threat has gotten infection rates under control. It's literally the countries that haven't that are delaying the return to normal.
Last edited by hl8208 on Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Wacker1000
Posts: 226
Joined: Tue Jan 07, 2014 6:36 pm

Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:19 pm

I can't feel that bad for the carriers. They went from the verge of bankruptcy to being hood rich in just a few years. Funny how quickly they forgot about the tough times when they started massive expansion, hiring binges, massive capital expenditures, etc. It would be great if the model was sustainable but clearly it is not. AA wasn't making money on their core product for many quarters pre-COVID - should have been a huge warning that things weren't right.




glideslope900 wrote:
crj900lr wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:

Go watch the latest episode of John Oliver on YouTube. Evictions just starting. Foreclosures just starting. The US can't even tame the first wave of the virus because 40% of them are idiots. Negative interest rates are coming. So while many in this forum may be at the top of the food chain, no one is running from this one. The DJIA can't lie about the status of the market for much longer.

Trust me, these are the best of times compared to what is coming.



Plain and simple, it's like this. If Biden wins then this virus will disappear almost instantly and things will go back to normal. If Trump wins again the virus will stay and supposedly get much worse and things will get worse. Will there be layoffs? Yeah, could an airline go under? Yeah, but the fine people in the media are making this virus to be much worse then it really is which has had a cascading effect on alot of things. The airline industry will recover, as it is currently doing now even through this, and gain momentum and get back to where it was before this nonsense started. Dont believe the hype.


Exactly. Notice a lot of talk about “cases” but not “deaths.” And the 0.2% that did die were 95% elderly. This whole thing has been a massive over reaction driven by media fear, governors that want to CYA, and herd like mentality of the average person.

I believe pax numbers will continue to slowly improve. Looking at mid-late 2021/early 2022 for full recovery IMO. I think soon the American people will realize it is all BS. I bet the news outlets are raking in the dough right now though.



So using this logic, grounding the MAX was a total over reaction? It had a huge economical impact to many. The types made a few hundred thousand flights with only two crashes so most people survived their MAX encounter. Those that did die probably aren't in your family let alone country.

Would you change your mind if not grounding the MAX lead to hospitals and morgues being overwhelmed with MAX victims?
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:23 pm

News outlets aren't actually making more money during the pandemic due to a collapse in adverting spending, which also hits the tech companies but their shares go up if people have too much money on them as they've got long term viability.
 
avek00
Posts: 3250
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:56 am

Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:58 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
When this looked shorter like a year or two to recover this made total sense. Now it's looking like passenger recovery imho could be quite a ways away it might not make any sense to keep such large payrolls. It's pretty clear the airlines will have large layoffs the day this money ends. Kind of defeats the whole point which was to avoid them needing to do that. It did make sense at the time but this is a very fast changing situation and I'm not sure extending makes too much sense. Tough times ahead I'm afraid


The CARES Act essentially worked as intended for US airlines. Going forward, if additional financial aid for US airlines is required, it should take the form of debtor-in-possession financing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings (DIP financing has superpriority claim status and would almost certainly be repaid no matter what happens). It's very difficult for a modern American airline to quickly and permanently shrink more than 10-20% without the powers and protections of the bankruptcy laws, and if international demand stays depressed permanent capacity cuts on the order of 30-50% will be on the table.
Live life to the fullest.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7944
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:16 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Anyone remember the post 9/11 security fees? Anyone want to bet airlines will charge a fee for "research to prevent future pandemics" after all this is said and done? They should after seeing one decimate their industry.

I could fully see a "cleaniness and sanitary" fee being tacked-on somewhere, somehow.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 3723
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:25 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Anyone remember the post 9/11 security fees? Anyone want to bet airlines will charge a fee for "research to prevent future pandemics" after all this is said and done? They should after seeing one decimate their industry.

I could fully see a "cleaniness and sanitary" fee being tacked-on somewhere, somehow.


Alot of medical offices are adding PPE fees so why not airlines?
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7944
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:31 pm

Everyone has to all the cleaning, PPE, etc. Its all cost that goes into overhead, of course the have to raise prices.

A large manufacturer I do work with estimates it costs them an additional $250K per week per plant to provide all the extra screning/daily health checks, PPE/masks, sanitizer, increased cleaning of bathrooms/break rooms, cleaning workstations between shifts.
 
AA94
Posts: 746
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2011 1:37 am

Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:57 pm

It's not a coincidence that most European nations and many US states with strict lockdown measures (IL, MD, NJ, NY, VA, to name a few) are well into reopening while still seeing a decline in cases. There have been localized spikes (and this will likely continue for some time), but generally case counts continue trending downward. Meanwhile AZ, CA, FL, SC, TX have a graph that looks like the lift hill on roller coaster at Six Flags.

There are a lot of unknowns, but to argue this is all hysteria or spin is pretty absurd. Controlling viral spread is only a mystery if you make it so. I for one would like to fly to Europe in 2020.
 
User avatar
ztarizona
Posts: 22
Joined: Mon Apr 27, 2015 6:59 am

Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 4:51 pm

DL747400 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
ztarizona wrote:
I realize this would be a major antitrust issue, but if they shrank their capacity on PHX-MSP for example, to three flights a day spread out among WN, DL, AA. It seems like it could be for the greater good rather than the race to the bottom capitalist situation. However this is totally unorthodox in the business world today. May not even work or may just plug the hole

But curious if airlines have any pretext for cooperating in such a manner in prior crises ?


Coordination of schedules, capacity, or pricing would be flat-out illegal. Period. Carriers need to find a way to survive in a capitalist world, not with cartel-enforced or government-regulated pricing. A.net so, so often looks to the monopolist, cartel model I can't believe it.


I think you may have misunderstood or misinterpreted his post. My take (and he can correct me if I'm wrong) is he's asking whether the airlines could be given temporary ATI allowing them to coordinate schedules and capacity (not pricing) as a way to help the industry survive the pandemic. I didn't read his comments as a proposal that airlines adopt this as their new, ongoing business model. Doing this might reduce or even eliminate the need for additional government loans/grants and might also lessen the probability of U.S. carriers needing to file for C11 in the next few years.


:checkmark: :checkmark: DL747400 you got it

I realize it is flat-out illegal.... it is totally corporate welfare to permit a limited emergency antitrust waiver. However, we also have the senators considering offering liability waivers to ANY businesses that reopen for customers who suffer illnesses essentially saying to customers "each man for themselves", even if the business clearly is not following the public health guidelines. There are even some proposals to remove the standards of care when it comes to doctors and nurses so there is no recourse if they do something wrong or inconsistent with the standards, the patient suffers a sentinel event. Everything is turning into a "best effort" ... but in who's eyes? If we treat all medical care, even for-profit care as if everything is under a "good Samaritan" law, clearly this offers some opportunity to throw your staff (or understaff) into dangerous situations with impunity. I say this as a healthcare worker.

These are *not* normal times. What I am asking is why as a society we have made a value judgement that it is it not flat-out illegal for hospitals in Arizona (some nonprofit, some for-profit) to coordinate patient census and yet we would rather throw good money after bad for airlines which do not have a clear go-forward plan, whereas if they could coordinate in some fashion (but NOT revenue sharing), it *might* preserve future competition and jobs. *Clearly* there is a danger to human life if the hospitals could not coordinate their census and so for whatever reason our legislature and governor are looking the other way, or there is provision for an emergency waiver. Fair enough.

Obviously, airlines should have a financial cushion (ie shouldn't have done stock buybacks...) but this is the world we find ourselves in today. I was just asking the question if something along these lines had ever been done in a limited way in the past in a crisis, not necessarily saying it *should* be done. What I am asking is why the money is being thrown at them in X way (CARES act emergency loans/grants), but not Z way (preserving competition or jobs by allowing limited *schedule* coordination)... etc.
“The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.” ― Issac Asimov
 
richierich
Moderator
Posts: 3627
Joined: Sat Nov 04, 2000 5:49 am

Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:58 pm

Please stay on topic here, folks. There have been several posts that moved into the realm of politics and virology, which is not what this thread is supposed to cover.
None shall pass!!!!
 
MSJYOP28Apilot
Posts: 441
Joined: Tue Jul 21, 2009 2:09 am

Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Sat Jul 18, 2020 8:45 pm

https://www.aviationpros.com/airlines/n ... ll-support

I am not sure the support this has in the senate or chances it is included in the final stimulus bill. Airline unions are pushing hard for the second bailout. With an election in November, it might very well happen. At the same time, airlines have been given special treatment compared to many other industries. The fairness aspect of this does come into play. There are many who are out of work not getting much on unemployment and there are healthcare workers risking their lives not getting anything extra so I don't think pilots should be sitting at home being paid 200K or more a year to not fly which will likely be the case given the overstaffing if the extension is granted.
 
glideslope900
Topic Author
Posts: 164
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2019 5:27 am

Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:38 pm

Have not heard anything about CARES extension for airlines in the coming stimulus package. I know unions are lobbying for an extension.
 
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atcsundevil
Moderator
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Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2010 12:22 pm

Re: CARES Act Aid Extension for Airlines

Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:39 pm

Please keep the thread on topic.

✈️ atcsundevil

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