Should Congress be inclined to provide any support, imo it should be via unemployment benefits, and other programs directly to those impacted, not any aid to the industry.
It's silly to have to maintain a bloated workforce when companies are a fraction of size. It only adds to long term inefficiency and pain, hampering critical restructuring.
I'm not a big fan of industry-specific bail-outs (not CARES Act, not the 9/11 grants, nor the 9/11 loan guarantees received by America West - Doug Parker's first trip to the Federal teat - and US Airways) but you can't have the whole domestic industry implode, either. It's too big a country to drive everywhere, and outside of the Northeast Corridor high-speed rail is a joke.https://www.americanactionforum.org/ins ... ation-act/
But, I'm with you - it's time to get on with the shrinking.
My belief is that we will look back at these summer 2020 days as the 'best of times' with respect to the arch of this pandemic and its ramifications.
50% or more of the members of this forum will have lost their job, their house, their health insurance, their retirement plan, or all the above, by summer 2021.
Do you think that a.net industry employment skews particularly junior, or skews to the less-skilled in the industry that are more at risk of being furloughed? The business next summer will have employment smaller than it did 3/2020, but surely greater than 50% of what it was. If a major U.S. airline CEO has pointed to 50% employment cutbacks by next summer please cite the source. Parker last week was still talking about 10-20%.
As for the OP's question on Democrats wanting to sink Trump through unemployment, it was the Democrats who structured the CARES Act for airline grants, loan guarantees, and employment guarantees. Trump's stimulus idea was a payroll tax cut - useful only if you're still working. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/trump-p ... s-say.html
The cuts are going to be dictated more by the pilot contracts, than even financial needs. The Majors need the regionals flying lots of routes right now to remain relevant and profitable, but the Union SCOPE clauses are preventing that from happening.
The Pilot unions are not going to budge on the percentage rules. They will happily sacrifice the younger regional pilots in order to keep the third wife, and second vacation home.
The brunt of the layoffs are going to be at the regionals, there are a lot of reasons for this. We could easily see a few regionals cease to exist, or folded into other carriers, in the next couple of months, especially with 50 seaters going away. You just can't keep subsidizing flying forever at these numbers, and winter is going to be BRUTAL for the US Airlines. Anyone who thinks it isn't is not paying attention.
Now, doom aside, there are a couple of signs of hope out there. Air Wisconsin has cut the number of downgrades, so much so that it looks like they could only have a few furloughs, if at all.
And SkyWest is just killing it... They are playing the non-union card, and the flexibility of the huge network to the hilt. Just take a look at how many OO planes are flying tomorrow afternoon, compared to the rest.
Hundreds of aircraft flying for all three majors.
These are unique times, and nothing is written in stone anymore. You could see some really strange deals pop up in the next couple of months.