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Polot
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:17 pm

hilram wrote:
bennett123 wrote:
Taken from the news and reference thread.

https://www.faa.gov/news/media/attachme ... 8-3-20.pdf

How difficult will it be to make these changes to the aircraft already constructed.

How difficult will it be to make these changes to aircraft which are under construction.

How difficult will it be to make these changes to new build.

That’s it, I suppose. The MAX will never make money, like the Dreamliner it can only be masked as a moneymaker by means of creative “Program Accounting “. And when you can’t make money on your Bread and Butter, you’re in Big Trouble.

“Boeing is Too Big to Fail!” Dennis: “Hold my beer”

I mean the money has been spent. I’m not sure what you are expecting Boeing to do. Dumping the Max program is not suddenly going to make the program profitable.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:35 pm

Seattle Times has posted their summary: https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... gs-737-max

Part I thought was most important was a summation of the update to the most important checklist:

One key change is to an emergency checklist that the pilot must follow if the horizontal tail is continuously pushing the jet’s nose down, known as the Runaway Stabilizer checklist.

A week after the first MAX crash in Oct. 2018, that of Lion Air JT 610 in Indonesia, Boeing issued a bulletin to pilots telling them that what had gone wrong was essentially a runaway stabilizer and pointed to that checklist as the appropriate response.

However, just over four months later, the pilots on Ethiopian Airlines flight ET 302 tried to follow the Runaway Stabilizer checklist and found it impossible.

First, pilots are instructed that before hitting the cutoff switches they need to use the main electric stabilizer thumb switches on the control column to adjust the jet’s pitch and reduce the forces on the tail.

Separately, they are cautioned that in certain conditions, when the horizontal tail has moved to an extreme position, it may take “a two-pilot effort” to physically turn the manual control wheel.

A final note in the revised checklist advises that “reducing airspeed” will lower the forces loaded “which can reduce the effort needed to manually trim.”

I suppose if it was me I would have connected the dots and suggested these updates don't rely on any of the MCAS changes and clearly could have been in the October 2018 AD and given that they are publishing them now they should have been. Of course I'm not a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist so I'll leave it to the pros.
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aerolimani
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 2:16 am

bennett123 wrote:
Taken from the news and reference thread.

https://www.faa.gov/news/media/attachme ... 8-3-20.pdf

Interesting that it’s only for the 737-8 and 737-9. When will something come for the 737-7 and 737-10, I wonder?

From the document:
“The FAA proposes to supersede Airworthiness Directive (AD) 2018-23-51, which applies to all The Boeing Company Model 737-8 and 737-9 (737 MAX) airplanes.”
 
Whiteguy
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 2:25 am

aerolimani wrote:
bennett123 wrote:
Taken from the news and reference thread.

https://www.faa.gov/news/media/attachme ... 8-3-20.pdf

Interesting that it’s only for the 737-8 and 737-9. When will something come for the 737-7 and 737-10, I wonder?

From the document:
“The FAA proposes to supersede Airworthiness Directive (AD) 2018-23-51, which applies to all The Boeing Company Model 737-8 and 737-9 (737 MAX) airplanes.”


Probably because the -7 and -10 are not certified and haven’t entered service. They will be certified with the changes already done
 
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aerolimani
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:59 am

Whiteguy wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
bennett123 wrote:
Taken from the news and reference thread.

https://www.faa.gov/news/media/attachme ... 8-3-20.pdf

Interesting that it’s only for the 737-8 and 737-9. When will something come for the 737-7 and 737-10, I wonder?

From the document:
“The FAA proposes to supersede Airworthiness Directive (AD) 2018-23-51, which applies to all The Boeing Company Model 737-8 and 737-9 (737 MAX) airplanes.”


Probably because the -7 and -10 are not certified and haven’t entered service. They will be certified with the changes already done

Yes. That would make sense.
 
astuteman
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 6:17 am

Back in March, did anyone genuinely think that the MAX would be on the ground for the neck end of 21 months?

I wouldn't wish Covid19 on anyone, but it couldn't have happened at a better time for the MAX.
A 21 month grounding with the airline industry in full chat and the NEO coming off the lines at 60+ per month would have been carnage

Rgds
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 7:58 am

In response to the JATR recommendations, the responds is mostly:

"This recommendation is for future
certification policy changes and will require
research and coordination with other civil
aviation authorities"


I hope that lands well with the JATR participants advising their government authorities.
Maybe they feel it is more relevant for 737 MAX certification too.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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frigatebird
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:09 am

astuteman wrote:
Back in March, did anyone genuinely think that the MAX would be on the ground for the neck end of 21 months?

I wouldn't wish Covid19 on anyone, but it couldn't have happened at a better time for the MAX.
A 21 month grounding with the airline industry in full chat and the NEO coming off the lines at 60+ per month would have been carnage

Rgds

Just to clarify, am i correct in understanding COVID-19 was a positive thing for the MAX program in your opinion?
In that case, I respectfully disagree, for the following reasons:
Airbus A32x neo's production would go to 60+ a month anyway, just to meet demand of already placed orders;
Boeing would want to deliver as many already produced MAX's as possible and resume production as planned earlier, to reduce the huge losses they made. But COVID-19 prevents this because:
airlines and lessors don't need all the aircraft on order anymore and cancel orders they wouldn't have without COVID-19, or even go bankrupt;
as Airbus will experience deferrals or bankrupt airlines too, this will result in some NEO aircraft available to MAX customers. This wouldn't have happened without COVID-19. I wouldn't be surprised if this was one of the factors which led to Norwegian's full cancellation of the MAX order (I believe they want Boeing to take back the already delivered MAX aircraft too). They have the NEO as alternative now.

IMO a better timing for Boeing would have been if COVID-19 happened before the MAX crashes. Not that either events were timely of course, to be clear :sigh:
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chiad
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:21 am

astuteman wrote:
Back in March, did anyone genuinely think that the MAX would be on the ground for the neck end of 21 months?

I wouldn't wish Covid19 on anyone, but it couldn't have happened at a better time for the MAX.
A 21 month grounding with the airline industry in full chat and the NEO coming off the lines at 60+ per month would have been carnage

Rgds


I dont know. If a success of a program is affected by the success of a competitor program, then yes.
But I assume without Covid19 airlines would be desperate for more capacity and we would see much less cancellations. I think Covid19 will be with us for a long time, and possible we will also be taunted by cousin Covid21. Time will tell, but I think the MAX backlog will still see the carnage.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 10:33 am

Revelation wrote:
Seattle Times has posted their summary: https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... gs-737-max

Part I thought was most important was a summation of the update to the most important checklist:

One key change is to an emergency checklist that the pilot must follow if the horizontal tail is continuously pushing the jet’s nose down, known as the Runaway Stabilizer checklist.



My reading of the above extract is that --even after the 're-certification' of the MAX-- the horizontal tail continuously pushing the jet's nose down remains a non-negligible operating scenario. It is a risk that has not been eliminated by the grounding.

And that is something quite worrying...


Faro
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 10:39 am

chiad wrote:
astuteman wrote:
Back in March, did anyone genuinely think that the MAX would be on the ground for the neck end of 21 months?

I wouldn't wish Covid19 on anyone, but it couldn't have happened at a better time for the MAX.
A 21 month grounding with the airline industry in full chat and the NEO coming off the lines at 60+ per month would have been carnage

Rgds


I dont know. If a success of a program is affected by the success of a competitor program, then yes.
But I assume without Covid19 airlines would be desperate for more capacity and we would see much less cancellations. I think Covid19 will be with us for a long time, and possible we will also be taunted by cousin Covid21. Time will tell, but I think the MAX backlog will still see the carnage.


It seem the back for the 737MAX is 3500 at this stage, while the NEO/A220 backlog more then 6700.

sources: https://www.aerotime.aero/rytis.beresne ... ax-backlog, https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/ ... eries.html

That's nearly double.

If we see further airlines dropping their 737MAX orders, it seems Boeing has little options but working on something new.
Of course that will hurt the 737 backlog. But if its already belly up, that is less of a concern.
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Opus99
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 11:07 am

keesje wrote:
chiad wrote:
astuteman wrote:
Back in March, did anyone genuinely think that the MAX would be on the ground for the neck end of 21 months?

I wouldn't wish Covid19 on anyone, but it couldn't have happened at a better time for the MAX.
A 21 month grounding with the airline industry in full chat and the NEO coming off the lines at 60+ per month would have been carnage

Rgds


I dont know. If a success of a program is affected by the success of a competitor program, then yes.
But I assume without Covid19 airlines would be desperate for more capacity and we would see much less cancellations. I think Covid19 will be with us for a long time, and possible we will also be taunted by cousin Covid21. Time will tell, but I think the MAX backlog will still see the carnage.


It seem the back for the 737MAX is 3500 at this stage, while the NEO/A220 backlog more then 6700.

sources: https://www.aerotime.aero/rytis.beresne ... ax-backlog, https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/ ... eries.html

That's nearly double.

If we see further airlines dropping their 737MAX orders, it seems Boeing has little options but working on something new.
Of course that will hurt the 737 backlog. But if its already belly up, that is less of a concern.

Is this taking into consideration accounting practices in the US? I know it doesn’t apply to Airbus but it’s needed for a clear comparison
 
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Polot
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 11:07 am

Faro wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Seattle Times has posted their summary: https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... gs-737-max

Part I thought was most important was a summation of the update to the most important checklist:

One key change is to an emergency checklist that the pilot must follow if the horizontal tail is continuously pushing the jet’s nose down, known as the Runaway Stabilizer checklist.



My reading of the above extract is that --even after the 're-certification' of the MAX-- the horizontal tail continuously pushing the jet's nose down remains a non-negligible operating scenario. It is a risk that has not been eliminated by the grounding.

And that is something quite worrying...


Faro


Well yes, all aircraft are at a risk of runaway trim- components break, gets jammed, etc. With FBW Airbuses fixing runaway trim is basically baked into the design- the computer will essentially take the trim system off line when the computer detects that it is not doing what it is being asked to do, and try and compensate as best as it can. You can’t do that on the 737, so you have a runaway trim checklist that tells the pilots manually what to do. Heck the A320 may still have a runaway checklist (unsure).

The 737 have always had an emergency runaway trim checklist, it wasn’t something introduced with the MAX. As has most other planes. Although the 737’s has gotten longer over the years/generations.
 
brindabella
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 11:31 am

aerolimani wrote:
Whiteguy wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
Interesting that it’s only for the 737-8 and 737-9. When will something come for the 737-7 and 737-10, I wonder?

From the document:


Probably because the -7 and -10 are not certified and haven’t entered service. They will be certified with the changes already done

Yes. That would make sense.


I browsed the article today also.

I had understood that EASA would require a 3rd AOA source, and the -10 would not be certified until it was operational;
however there was no mention of such today.

Anybody?

cheers
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 11:31 am

Opus99 wrote:
Is this taking into consideration accounting practices in the US? I know it doesn’t apply to Airbus but it’s needed for a clear comparison


Airbus is subject to IFRS 15, which is very similar to ASC 606. There are some differences, one of which is the requirement for interim reporting - I believe IFRS 15 doesn't require adjusted numbers to be reported in interim (quarterly) reports, so Airbus adjustments might only be seen at year end, whereas Boeing has to include them in their quarterly reports.

Note: I'm not an accountant, what I've written above is my understanding of the situation. Happy to be corrected if I've got it wrong.
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hilram
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 11:35 am

Polot wrote:
hilram wrote:
bennett123 wrote:
Taken from the news and reference thread.

https://www.faa.gov/news/media/attachme ... 8-3-20.pdf

How difficult will it be to make these changes to the aircraft already constructed.

How difficult will it be to make these changes to aircraft which are under construction.

How difficult will it be to make these changes to new build.

That’s it, I suppose. The MAX will never make money, like the Dreamliner it can only be masked as a moneymaker by means of creative “Program Accounting “. And when you can’t make money on your Bread and Butter, you’re in Big Trouble.

“Boeing is Too Big to Fail!” Dennis: “Hold my beer”

I mean the money has been spent. I’m not sure what you are expecting Boeing to do. Dumping the Max program is not suddenly going to make the program profitable.


I am not expecting Boeing to do anything other than what they are currently doing: Salvage what can possibly be salvaged. I feel sorry for all the staff at Boeing that has to go through this tumultous time, at the same time management should be docked from Bonus. Feel sick to my stomach that Dennis got away without even a slightest performance-based deduction of all his lucrative bonuses.
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astuteman
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 11:47 am

frigatebird wrote:
astuteman wrote:
Back in March, did anyone genuinely think that the MAX would be on the ground for the neck end of 21 months?

I wouldn't wish Covid19 on anyone, but it couldn't have happened at a better time for the MAX.
A 21 month grounding with the airline industry in full chat and the NEO coming off the lines at 60+ per month would have been carnage

Rgds


Boeing would want to deliver as many already produced MAX's as possible and resume production as planned earlier, to reduce the huge losses they made. But COVID-19 prevents this because:
airlines and lessors don't need all the aircraft on order anymore and cancel orders they wouldn't have without COVID-19, or even go bankrupt;
as Airbus will experience deferrals or bankrupt airlines too, this will result in some NEO aircraft available to MAX customers. This wouldn't have happened without COVID-19. I wouldn't be surprised if this was one of the factors which led to Norwegian's full cancellation of the MAX order (I believe they want Boeing to take back the already delivered MAX aircraft too). They have the NEO as alternative now.


I guess I was looking at it from the point of view - the fact, that its currently not actually Covid19 that's stopping Boeing from delivering 737MAX's, it's the fact that it is still grounded.
The unintended consequence of this is a concurrency between the two factors.
Neither of them are "good", though, and I wouldn't want to portray them as such.

Look at it another way - Covid19 hasn't altered the number of 737's that Boeing can deliver currently.
It sure as hell has altered the number of A320's that Airbus can deliver, and as such, the prospect of the MAX continuing to fall further and further behind the A320 in the market is being mitigated.

Once the market opens up again, MAX's currently being cancelled will reduce the backlog, and therefore increase availability.
With much fewer A320's being cancelled, all the Covid delays do is give them long term delivery pain.

Either way, I didn't think that I expected the MAX to still be grounded in Q3 2020 :)

Rgds
 
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InsideMan
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:12 pm

astuteman wrote:
Back in March, did anyone genuinely think that the MAX would be on the ground for the neck end of 21 months?

I wouldn't wish Covid19 on anyone, but it couldn't have happened at a better time for the MAX.
A 21 month grounding with the airline industry in full chat and the NEO coming off the lines at 60+ per month would have been carnage

Rgds


I value your opinion very much, but on this issue I thing you are very wrong.
The only reason the MAX sold in the first place (and Boeing built it) was because the NEO was selling crazy and was sold out for the coming years.
Now with COVID anyone who wants a NEO can have one in relatively short time, hence no more need to take the 2nd best option to keep up with your competition.
 
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frigatebird
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:19 pm

astuteman wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
astuteman wrote:
Back in March, did anyone genuinely think that the MAX would be on the ground for the neck end of 21 months?

I wouldn't wish Covid19 on anyone, but it couldn't have happened at a better time for the MAX.
A 21 month grounding with the airline industry in full chat and the NEO coming off the lines at 60+ per month would have been carnage

Rgds


Boeing would want to deliver as many already produced MAX's as possible and resume production as planned earlier, to reduce the huge losses they made. But COVID-19 prevents this because:
airlines and lessors don't need all the aircraft on order anymore and cancel orders they wouldn't have without COVID-19, or even go bankrupt;
as Airbus will experience deferrals or bankrupt airlines too, this will result in some NEO aircraft available to MAX customers. This wouldn't have happened without COVID-19. I wouldn't be surprised if this was one of the factors which led to Norwegian's full cancellation of the MAX order (I believe they want Boeing to take back the already delivered MAX aircraft too). They have the NEO as alternative now.


I guess I was looking at it from the point of view - the fact, that its currently not actually Covid19 that's stopping Boeing from delivering 737MAX's, it's the fact that it is still grounded.
The unintended consequence of this is a concurrency between the two factors.
Neither of them are "good", though, and I wouldn't want to portray them as such.

Look at it another way - Covid19 hasn't altered the number of 737's that Boeing can deliver currently.
It sure as hell has altered the number of A320's that Airbus can deliver, and as such, the prospect of the MAX continuing to fall further and further behind the A320 in the market is being mitigated.

Once the market opens up again, MAX's currently being cancelled will reduce the backlog, and therefore increase availability.
With much fewer A320's being cancelled, all the Covid delays do is give them long term delivery pain.

Either way, I didn't think that I expected the MAX to still be grounded in Q3 2020 :)

Rgds


OK, thanks for your clarification. In soccer terms, Boeing is now 5-0 behind, but it could have been 7-1. Still a lost game though. And yeah, the MAX stiil grounded in Q3 doesn't help much. Will even be doubrful whether it will fly revenue service in Q4.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:44 pm

keesje wrote:
chiad wrote:
astuteman wrote:
Back in March, did anyone genuinely think that the MAX would be on the ground for the neck end of 21 months?

I wouldn't wish Covid19 on anyone, but it couldn't have happened at a better time for the MAX.
A 21 month grounding with the airline industry in full chat and the NEO coming off the lines at 60+ per month would have been carnage

Rgds


I dont know. If a success of a program is affected by the success of a competitor program, then yes.
But I assume without Covid19 airlines would be desperate for more capacity and we would see much less cancellations. I think Covid19 will be with us for a long time, and possible we will also be taunted by cousin Covid21. Time will tell, but I think the MAX backlog will still see the carnage.


It seem the back for the 737MAX is 3500 at this stage, while the NEO/A220 backlog more then 6700.

sources: https://www.aerotime.aero/rytis.beresne ... ax-backlog, https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/ ... eries.html

That's nearly double.

If we see further airlines dropping their 737MAX orders, it seems Boeing has little options but working on something new.
Of course that will hurt the 737 backlog. But if its already belly up, that is less of a concern.



You are not comparing Apples to Apples. Boeing has to take into account ASC 606 - I don't think Airbus does.

Leeham did an article on it - but it is paywalled and no one seems to be talking about it https://leehamnews.com/2020/07/27/apply ... rder-book/

Still bigger backlog for the NEO - but if MAX is only produced at 31 per month - they will still be producing the MAX in 2030 even with no new orders which is unrealistic.
 
SteinarN
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 2:15 pm

According to Leeham Airbus' backlog for the A320neo adjusted for ASC 606 stands at about 5.700 unfilled orders as far as they are able to assess.
It compares to Boeings Max backlog of 3.550 planes. Of those are about 450 already built, so about 3.100 left to build.
 
Jetport
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:03 pm

InsideMan wrote:
astuteman wrote:
Back in March, did anyone genuinely think that the MAX would be on the ground for the neck end of 21 months?

I wouldn't wish Covid19 on anyone, but it couldn't have happened at a better time for the MAX.
A 21 month grounding with the airline industry in full chat and the NEO coming off the lines at 60+ per month would have been carnage

Rgds


I value your opinion very much, but on this issue I thing you are very wrong.
The only reason the MAX sold in the first place (and Boeing built it) was because the NEO was selling crazy and was sold out for the coming years.
Now with COVID anyone who wants a NEO can have one in relatively short time, hence no more need to take the 2nd best option to keep up with your competition.


Why is the MAX the second best option? Isn't' every version of the MAX more efficient up to about 1500 nm than it's NEO competitor? So on a significant majority of routes actually flown by real airlines the MAX has lower costs. Add in that MAX's are probably now cheaper to buy than NEO's and I would think they would sell well going forward post COVID 19. Unless you are an airline that flies mostly very long range routes (Norwegian?), the 737 appears to be the better choice.
 
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PW100
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:05 pm

Revelation wrote:
Am reading the Notice of proposed rulemaking (NPRM) for a Boeing 737 MAX airworthiness directive (AD) (PDF) which is now out.

Some observations:

. . . .

More later...


Thanks for the excellent summary.

Just wanted to add following quote, as it answers two important topics, heavily discussed on here . . . :
Preliminary Summary FAA Review 737 MAX wrote:
Par. 8.5 Flight Test
. . .
Additionally, a matrix of stall identification and stall characteristics testing was accomplished to confirm that basic airplane stall characteristics comply with those regulations [= 14 CFR 25.1301, 14 CFR 25.1300], both with and without STS/MCAS operation.

The FAA also flew engineering flight tests to validate manual trim wheel forces and confirm that even for the most critical failures identified within the SSA, manual trim capability was adequate through all phases of flight — and associated configurations changes — to accomplish continued safe flight and landing. (See 8.3.2, 8.6, and 9.1 of this report for further details.)
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oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:20 pm

The BBC has a good report on this:

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53646442

However, BBC says Boeing "hopes" to have the max back in the air early 2021? So another time slip?
A wide-ranging list of changes to Boeing’s ill-fated 737 Max planes has been put forward by US regulators. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) document details actions it wants to be made before the planes can fly again commercially. The 737 Max has been grounded since March 2019 following two fatal crashes which killed 346 people.

Boeing hopes to get the 737 Max back in the air early next year after the changes are made.


Also some good insight from Peter Lemme, a former Boeing engineer in this article, who calls Boeing's approach a ban-aid approach and I would agree to that:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/faa-o ... 2020-08-03

Peter Lemme, a former Boeing engineer who has written extensively about the plane and the crashes, said the FAA review was thorough and that Boeing was slow to take a comprehensive look at fixing the plane. “Every two months they acquiesced and said, ‘OK, fine, we’ll put this feature in,’ instead of starting at the front and saying, ‘Let’s shake the rug and get this right,’” Lemme said. “It was a Band-Aid approach.” Lemme said Boeing’s critical mistake was in assuming that it was fine for MCAS to rely on a single sensor instead of two, which is where the new design ended up.
:stirthepot: :airplane: "This airplane is designed by clowns, who in turn are supervised by monkeys" :airplane: :stirthepot:
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:28 pm

astuteman wrote:
Back in March, did anyone genuinely think that the MAX would be on the ground for the neck end of 21 months?

The course of action was as predicted but the duration is not. We're still not through the training decree phase. I have to think that will be difficult to gain agreement on.

Reading the AD, one gets the impression that odds of recurrence have dropped due to emphasis on AoA disagree indicators and partial computer failure (indicated via a "borrowed" stab trim light, sigh) and clearer check lists, not to mention the actual MCAS fixes.

The other impression one gets is that the pilots of this aircraft will have to be on top of their game if/when an actual failure (let's say a bird clips the AoA or an actual stab trim runaway) happens. There still will be lots of check lists that will need to be performed in the presence of many distracting indications such as lights, horns, stick shakers, etc. Still lots of reliance on check lists being evaluated/prioritized/performed by stressed out people who may be the bottom of the barrel pilots at the bottom of the barrel airline who may be dealing with fatigue, illness, weather, etc.

Boeing's "mea culpa" was that they put too much workload on the pilots. By preparing the MAX for RTS they are now saying it no longer puts too much workload on the pilots. It surely helps that the plane won't repeatedly push its own nose down towards the ground in a way the pilots were not informed of, yet they still need to convince the authorities the remaining checklists and memory items aren't putting too much workload on the pilots. They and the authorities won't be able to use that excuse a second time.

brindabella wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
Whiteguy wrote:
Probably because the -7 and -10 are not certified and haven’t entered service. They will be certified with the changes already done

Yes. That would make sense.

I browsed the article today also.

I had understood that EASA would require a 3rd AOA source, and the -10 would not be certified until it was operational;
however there was no mention of such today.

Same reason. The airworthiness directive only applies to things needed to get the certified variants back into service. MAX-10 is not yet certified. Eventually there will be an Amended Type Certificat (ATC) to add it to the 737's type certificate. Presumably that's where the 3rd AoA source will be addressed, probably by referring to another Airworthiness Directive that will require that 3rd source on all MAXes.

hilram wrote:
I am not expecting Boeing to do anything other than what they are currently doing: Salvage what can possibly be salvaged. I feel sorry for all the staff at Boeing that has to go through this tumultous time, at the same time management should be docked from Bonus. Feel sick to my stomach that Dennis got away without even a slightest performance-based deduction of all his lucrative bonuses.

CEO pay in general is sickening, but in fact he did not get a 2019 bonus ( ref: https://www.phillytrib.com/news/busines ... c5007.html ).

InsideMan wrote:
I value your opinion very much, but on this issue I thing you are very wrong.
The only reason the MAX sold in the first place (and Boeing built it) was because the NEO was selling crazy and was sold out for the coming years.
Now with COVID anyone who wants a NEO can have one in relatively short time, hence no more need to take the 2nd best option to keep up with your competition.

Sorry, but delivery time is far from the only reason customers bought MAX.
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ShamrockBoi330
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:34 pm

EASE certification flights still to be completed, with none currently scheduled due to Covid19 complications, per Bloomberg.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... oves-ahead

What implications, if any, does this have for the FAA AD outlining Max updates before RTS?

As someone else mention upthread, i thought EASA wanted a third AOA sensor? Has this been resolved with the FAA? Can anyone more knowledgeable opine?
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:52 pm

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
As someone else mention upthread, i thought EASA wanted a third AOA sensor? Has this been resolved with the FAA? Can anyone more knowledgeable opine?

Not sure why we'd expect resolution now. My understanding was EASA said it wanted a 3rd AoA sensor before MAX-10 was certified. Since MAX-10 is not now being certified, it isn't being resolved now.
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ShamrockBoi330
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 4:02 pm

Revelation wrote:
ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
As someone else mention upthread, i thought EASA wanted a third AOA sensor? Has this been resolved with the FAA? Can anyone more knowledgeable opine?

Not sure why we'd expect resolution now. My understanding was EASA said it wanted a 3rd AoA sensor before MAX-10 was certified. Since MAX-10 is not now being certified, it isn't being resolved now.


Makes sense :bigthumbsup:
Forgot that piece about the MAX10 certification!
Thanks!
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 4:31 pm

Revelation wrote:
astuteman wrote:
Back in March, did anyone genuinely think that the MAX would be on the ground for the neck end of 21 months?

The course of action was as predicted but the duration is not.

Well, the course may be as predicted - but the scope of action increased by a lot. Significant FCC redesign wasn't on the table for the first few months.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:03 pm

kalvado wrote:
Revelation wrote:
astuteman wrote:
Back in March, did anyone genuinely think that the MAX would be on the ground for the neck end of 21 months?

The course of action was as predicted but the duration is not.

Well, the course may be as predicted - but the scope of action increased by a lot. Significant FCC redesign wasn't on the table for the first few months.

...and if not for Covid-19 either it would not have been addressed at the same time or if done, the slow work currently taking place would have seen more urgency, example, do we really believe that without Covid the 777X certification would have been delayed to 2021 after the engine issues were resolved?

One thing I think we can be certain of, if there was no Covid the landscape would not be the same as it is now, including whether Boeing would have had to cancel the MAX.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:22 pm

kalvado wrote:
Revelation wrote:
astuteman wrote:
Back in March, did anyone genuinely think that the MAX would be on the ground for the neck end of 21 months?

The course of action was as predicted but the duration is not.

Well, the course may be as predicted - but the scope of action increased by a lot. Significant FCC redesign wasn't on the table for the first few months.

Reminds me of Peter Lemme's comments above about how Boeing didn't take a holistic approach to solving the problem, they applied band-aids. In my industry we call this "getting to a new product one bug fix at a time". It seem management prefers to be forced into making each change. Seems they feel that this saves money but of course now we see how long this RTS effort is stretching out with no closure yet so that is subject to debate. Yet we see this path preferred so often. It seems managers can tell the executives "I fought the good fight but in the end we had to spend the money" so they can justify their decisions, yet no one seems to want to step back and look at the big picture and see how they could have gotten to the same point a lot quicker. In my experience one should never bother writing post mortem documents because no one ever reads them.

par13del wrote:
...and if not for Covid-19 either it would not have been addressed at the same time or if done, the slow work currently taking place would have seen more urgency, example, do we really believe that without Covid the 777X certification would have been delayed to 2021 after the engine issues were resolved?

One thing I think we can be certain of, if there was no Covid the landscape would not be the same as it is now, including whether Boeing would have had to cancel the MAX.

IMO CV19 doesn't change the fact that there is/was no "Plan B" when it comes to MAX. Every other path produces a worse outcome for Boeing, its partners and its customers.

CV19 may be "hiding" the MAX issue, but it's pushed 787 from rate 12 down to rate 6 and delayed the 777x and caused Boeing to borrow many more billions of dollars they have to repay in the future with much less income to do so. There's no way to look at that as a win, IMO.

CV19 didn't even help the NMA "rethink". That happened well before the impact of CV19 was known, largely because Calhoun was not a fan of the NMA concept. It's a positive outcome from Boeing because they don't have the money to do a clean sheet now, but it wasn't because CV19 caused the "rethink".
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:52 pm

oschkosch wrote:
However, BBC says Boeing "hopes" to have the max back in the air early 2021? So another time slip?


It sounds like the order lifting the grounding will happen before the end of 2020, however between the additional pilot training that needs to be undertaken plus the airline and FAA checks on each airframe, none of them will be actually in revenue service before 2021.

So yes it is a "slip" in that revenue flights will not begin until 2021.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 11:39 pm

morrisond wrote:
Still bigger backlog for the NEO - but if MAX is only produced at 31 per month - they will still be producing the MAX in 2030 even with no new orders which is unrealistic.



Don't know if Boeing would be happy to be producing 31 MAX per month for even the next few years. That will be some cut on their income for a long time. If they had been planning for 57 per month in 2019, going to almost half that is surely going to hurt for most of the next decade.
 
Redsand187
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 9:35 am

Stitch wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
However, BBC says Boeing "hopes" to have the max back in the air early 2021? So another time slip?


It sounds like the order lifting the grounding will happen before the end of 2020, however between the additional pilot training that needs to be undertaken plus the airline and FAA checks on each airframe, none of them will be actually in revenue service before 2021.

So yes it is a "slip" in that revenue flights will not begin until 2021.

It was originally said RTS was expected to be summer 2019, then slipped, and continued to slip until the last claim of summer 2020. Now that summer 2020 is nearly over and RTS is nowhere in sight they are again pushing off the RTS to the closest possible date. I will be surprised if the Max returns to global commercial operations before 2022.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 9:38 am

Redsand187 wrote:
Stitch wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
However, BBC says Boeing "hopes" to have the max back in the air early 2021? So another time slip?


It sounds like the order lifting the grounding will happen before the end of 2020, however between the additional pilot training that needs to be undertaken plus the airline and FAA checks on each airframe, none of them will be actually in revenue service before 2021.

So yes it is a "slip" in that revenue flights will not begin until 2021.

It was originally said RTS was expected to be summer 2019, then slipped, and continued to slip until the last claim of summer 2020. Now that summer 2020 is nearly over and RTS is nowhere in sight they are again pushing off the RTS to the closest possible date. I will be surprised if the Max returns to global commercial operations before 2022.

thats a bit of reach. All the other "Expected RTS" dates had no clear prior sign of actual progress. It is now obvious that Boeing and the FAA are getting to the tail end of this debacle (with regards to the certification anyway). The only RTS date that made sense was the summer and coronavirus had a larger impact than planned as well as the 45 day consultation period.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 10:30 am

The updates on Boeing 737 MAX test flights moving forward, FAA certification steps and return to service we saw over the last 18 months are encouraging.

If the JATR recommendations are fully accepted and implemented for the 737 MAX, I'm positive EASA will cooperate bringing back the MAX into service asap.

https://www.aviationtoday.com/2019/10/1 ... trols-faa/

If modern safety regulations can be smartly, legally avoided, maybe MAX operations can be restarted all over the US!
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:53 am

keesje wrote:
The updates on Boeing 737 MAX test flights moving forward, FAA certification steps and return to service we saw over the last 18 months are encouraging.

If the JATR recommendations are fully accepted and implemented for the 737 MAX, I'm positive EASA will cooperate bringing back the MAX into service asap.

https://www.aviationtoday.com/2019/10/1 ... trols-faa/

If modern safety regulations can be smartly, legally avoided, maybe MAX operations can be restarted all over the US!


I believe that many on here have pointed out that excepting for MCAS related issues the 737 since the NG redesign has an enviable safety record even while not adhering to a few of the latest and greatest standards.

The latest and greatest have not done anything to materially improve fatality rates and fortunately as the sample sizes (fatalities) are so small in modern airline operations that any minor differences are statistically insignificant.
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 12:42 pm

morrisond wrote:
keesje wrote:
The updates on Boeing 737 MAX test flights moving forward, FAA certification steps and return to service we saw over the last 18 months are encouraging.

If the JATR recommendations are fully accepted and implemented for the 737 MAX, I'm positive EASA will cooperate bringing back the MAX into service asap.

https://www.aviationtoday.com/2019/10/1 ... trols-faa/

If modern safety regulations can be smartly, legally avoided, maybe MAX operations can be restarted all over the US!


I believe that many on here have pointed out that excepting for MCAS related issues the 737 since the NG redesign has an enviable safety record even while not adhering to a few of the latest and greatest standards.

The latest and greatest have not done anything to materially improve fatality rates and fortunately as the sample sizes (fatalities) are so small in modern airline operations that any minor differences are statistically insignificant.

Patient is totally healthy except for a terminal stage cancer..
And as it was pointed out, later generation airliners - 787, 350, 380 - have no fatalities at all.
777 has a few, but a lot of people lived to tell the story of a major crash. If anything, I would look at BA38 and OZ214 vs, say, PC2193 to see the difference
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 1:08 pm

morrisond wrote:
keesje wrote:
The updates on Boeing 737 MAX test flights moving forward, FAA certification steps and return to service we saw over the last 18 months are encouraging.

If the JATR recommendations are fully accepted and implemented for the 737 MAX, I'm positive EASA will cooperate bringing back the MAX into service asap.

https://www.aviationtoday.com/2019/10/1 ... trols-faa/

If modern safety regulations can be smartly, legally avoided, maybe MAX operations can be restarted all over the US!


I believe that many on here have pointed out that excepting for MCAS related issues the 737 since the NG redesign has an enviable safety record even while not adhering to a few of the latest and greatest standards.

The latest and greatest have not done anything to materially improve fatality rates and fortunately as the sample sizes (fatalities) are so small in modern airline operations that any minor differences are statistically insignificant.


I think the 737 NG safety records used for changed product certification need to be reviewed, e.g. TK1951. Lots of politics & power play there too. Do you think the 737 MAX would have been grounded, if the Lionair crash would not have been followed by the Ethiopian one? Or that the MAX would have been grounded at all, if the interval between crashes was e.g more then a year, and the Chinese & EASA hadn't balked.. Support & believe needs to be replaced by independence and authority. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a ... /-800/-900)_aircraft
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olle
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 1:34 pm

Is not the biggest problem for Boeing and the RTS probably Q1 2021 that many more aviation companies will be able in a situation when everybody looking for cash be able to cancel the orders and get back 100% of already paid money to Boeing.

Airbus will probably also get cancellations but in their case the customer will not get back any money.

The Norwegian case is obious; Boeing need to give back money Airbus no.Right now the A320 family special 321 seems to be more attractive so perhaps many see the chance to get low cost A320s earlier as well. I have a strong feeling that we soon will see Norwegian A320s in red colours..
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:26 pm

kalvado wrote:
morrisond wrote:
keesje wrote:
The updates on Boeing 737 MAX test flights moving forward, FAA certification steps and return to service we saw over the last 18 months are encouraging.

If the JATR recommendations are fully accepted and implemented for the 737 MAX, I'm positive EASA will cooperate bringing back the MAX into service asap.

https://www.aviationtoday.com/2019/10/1 ... trols-faa/

If modern safety regulations can be smartly, legally avoided, maybe MAX operations can be restarted all over the US!


I believe that many on here have pointed out that excepting for MCAS related issues the 737 since the NG redesign has an enviable safety record even while not adhering to a few of the latest and greatest standards.

The latest and greatest have not done anything to materially improve fatality rates and fortunately as the sample sizes (fatalities) are so small in modern airline operations that any minor differences are statistically insignificant.

Patient is totally healthy except for a terminal stage cancer..
And as it was pointed out, later generation airliners - 787, 350, 380 - have no fatalities at all.
777 has a few, but a lot of people lived to tell the story of a major crash. If anything, I would look at BA38 and OZ214 vs, say, PC2193 to see the difference


We all know he was comparing it to the A320.

If pilots keep insisting on trying to land with strong tailwinds - fatalities like PC2193 will continue to happen - you can't blame that on the aircraft. That is poor airmanship. Two other flights aborted their attempts right before PC2193.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:53 pm

morrisond wrote:
kalvado wrote:
morrisond wrote:

I believe that many on here have pointed out that excepting for MCAS related issues the 737 since the NG redesign has an enviable safety record even while not adhering to a few of the latest and greatest standards.

The latest and greatest have not done anything to materially improve fatality rates and fortunately as the sample sizes (fatalities) are so small in modern airline operations that any minor differences are statistically insignificant.

Patient is totally healthy except for a terminal stage cancer..
And as it was pointed out, later generation airliners - 787, 350, 380 - have no fatalities at all.
777 has a few, but a lot of people lived to tell the story of a major crash. If anything, I would look at BA38 and OZ214 vs, say, PC2193 to see the difference


We all know he was comparing it to the A320.

If pilots keep insisting on trying to land with strong tailwinds - fatalities like PC2193 will continue to happen - you can't blame that on the aircraft. That is poor airmanship. Two other flights aborted their attempts right before PC2193.

I know you want to blame pilots for everything - but I am talking about a different issue: an amount of abuse plane can take before people inside start dying. I would argue that OZ214 showed a much sturdier design of a newer 777 - and I suspect regulations regarding design (those damn 10g seats included) are a part of a deal.
I am specifically addressing the highlighted part.
 
737max8
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 5:45 pm

Redsand187 wrote:
Stitch wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
However, BBC says Boeing "hopes" to have the max back in the air early 2021? So another time slip?


It sounds like the order lifting the grounding will happen before the end of 2020, however between the additional pilot training that needs to be undertaken plus the airline and FAA checks on each airframe, none of them will be actually in revenue service before 2021.

So yes it is a "slip" in that revenue flights will not begin until 2021.

It was originally said RTS was expected to be summer 2019, then slipped, and continued to slip until the last claim of summer 2020. Now that summer 2020 is nearly over and RTS is nowhere in sight they are again pushing off the RTS to the closest possible date. I will be surprised if the Max returns to global commercial operations before 2022.


I would like to bet you good money I will be flying revenue service in 2021.

As someone else mentioned, ungrounding is very likely this year. It just takes a little while to get all of the A/C and pilots ready for revenue service.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 6:18 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Redsand187 wrote:
It was originally said RTS was expected to be summer 2019, then slipped, and continued to slip until the last claim of summer 2020. Now that summer 2020 is nearly over and RTS is nowhere in sight they are again pushing off the RTS to the closest possible date. I will be surprised if the Max returns to global commercial operations before 2022.

thats a bit of reach. All the other "Expected RTS" dates had no clear prior sign of actual progress. It is now obvious that Boeing and the FAA are getting to the tail end of this debacle (with regards to the certification anyway). The only RTS date that made sense was the summer and coronavirus had a larger impact than planned as well as the 45 day consultation period.

Q3-19 made sense when the fix was just to fix MCAS itself. Q1-20 made sense when the "cosmic ray" fix was thrown in. Missing Q1-20 was a big part of the reason why the CEO was made to walk the plank. The slips since then have been the "death of a thousand cuts". Software review finding warning light issues. Review of certification basis finds wiring issue. Lots of negotiation behind the scenes on the 3rd AoA source. And now, finishing out the review of the training procedures, EASA's flights, the 45 day AD comment process, etc.

I think Boeing will be doing everything it can to have one operator put one MAX back in to service before end Q4-20 because optics. I wouldn't bet a lot of money on it happening though. No one seems to be in any sort of a hurry, with CV19 a ready excuse as needed.

morrisond wrote:
I believe that many on here have pointed out that excepting for MCAS related issues the 737 since the NG redesign has an enviable safety record even while not adhering to a few of the latest and greatest standards.

The latest and greatest have not done anything to materially improve fatality rates and fortunately as the sample sizes (fatalities) are so small in modern airline operations that any minor differences are statistically insignificant.

NG had EIS of 1997. Most of its pilots were raised on planes with even less automation than NG had, weren't raised with smartphones, etc. MAX is going to be flown by a lot of pilots who weren't born in 1997. I guess one "benefit" of CV19 is that there won't be the demand element that was keeping diploma mills like Lion City churning out more pilots for a while.

olle wrote:
Is not the biggest problem for Boeing and the RTS probably Q1 2021 that many more aviation companies will be able in a situation when everybody looking for cash be able to cancel the orders and get back 100% of already paid money to Boeing.

Not really. Boeing closed agreements with a lot of the customers on MCAS compensation before CV19's impact was evident. The agreements bound them to MAX and gave them incentives to take even more MAXes. The drops mostly seem to be from leasing firms who usually have more "opt outs" in their contracts.
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Redsand187
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 7:18 pm

737max8 wrote:
Redsand187 wrote:
Stitch wrote:

It sounds like the order lifting the grounding will happen before the end of 2020, however between the additional pilot training that needs to be undertaken plus the airline and FAA checks on each airframe, none of them will be actually in revenue service before 2021.

So yes it is a "slip" in that revenue flights will not begin until 2021.

It was originally said RTS was expected to be summer 2019, then slipped, and continued to slip until the last claim of summer 2020. Now that summer 2020 is nearly over and RTS is nowhere in sight they are again pushing off the RTS to the closest possible date. I will be surprised if the Max returns to global commercial operations before 2022.


I would like to bet you good money I will be flying revenue service in 2021.

As someone else mentioned, ungrounding is very likely this year. It just takes a little while to get all of the A/C and pilots ready for revenue service.

I don't believe RTS is going to happen globally at the same time. The MAX will fly in the USA before other countries, especially China, allow it to return to commercial service. What I mean when I say I'll be surprised if the MAX returns to global operations before 2022, is that it will be able to fly commercial service unrestricted worldwide.
 
737max8
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 10:46 pm

Redsand187 wrote:
737max8 wrote:
Redsand187 wrote:
It was originally said RTS was expected to be summer 2019, then slipped, and continued to slip until the last claim of summer 2020. Now that summer 2020 is nearly over and RTS is nowhere in sight they are again pushing off the RTS to the closest possible date. I will be surprised if the Max returns to global commercial operations before 2022.


I would like to bet you good money I will be flying revenue service in 2021.

As someone else mentioned, ungrounding is very likely this year. It just takes a little while to get all of the A/C and pilots ready for revenue service.

I don't believe RTS is going to happen globally at the same time. The MAX will fly in the USA before other countries, especially China, allow it to return to commercial service. What I mean when I say I'll be surprised if the MAX returns to global operations before 2022, is that it will be able to fly commercial service unrestricted worldwide.


Point taken, but will they really lag by a year? The NPRM mentions the FAA, EASA, ANAC, etc. all working together on pilot training which should be ready soon.
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jagraham
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Thu Aug 06, 2020 5:54 pm

Revelation wrote:
ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
As someone else mention upthread, i thought EASA wanted a third AOA sensor? Has this been resolved with the FAA? Can anyone more knowledgeable opine?

Not sure why we'd expect resolution now. My understanding was EASA said it wanted a 3rd AoA sensor before MAX-10 was certified. Since MAX-10 is not now being certified, it isn't being resolved now.


I thought EASA would accept a software solution (patch into GPS)
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Thu Aug 06, 2020 6:33 pm

jagraham wrote:
Revelation wrote:
ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
As someone else mention upthread, i thought EASA wanted a third AOA sensor? Has this been resolved with the FAA? Can anyone more knowledgeable opine?

Not sure why we'd expect resolution now. My understanding was EASA said it wanted a 3rd AoA sensor before MAX-10 was certified. Since MAX-10 is not now being certified, it isn't being resolved now.


I thought EASA would accept a software solution (patch into GPS)

Software still has to be a bit more than just GPS patch - and in either case it still needs to be demonstrated. Would they need any additional hardware for that? We'll see..
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:30 pm

737max8 wrote:
Redsand187 wrote:
737max8 wrote:

I would like to bet you good money I will be flying revenue service in 2021.

As someone else mentioned, ungrounding is very likely this year. It just takes a little while to get all of the A/C and pilots ready for revenue service.

I don't believe RTS is going to happen globally at the same time. The MAX will fly in the USA before other countries, especially China, allow it to return to commercial service. What I mean when I say I'll be surprised if the MAX returns to global operations before 2022, is that it will be able to fly commercial service unrestricted worldwide.


Point taken, but will they really lag by a year? The NPRM mentions the FAA, EASA, ANAC, etc. all working together on pilot training which should be ready soon.


I would say six months, but given the track record of slippage . . .
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Sat Aug 08, 2020 3:09 pm

kalvado wrote:
Patient is totally healthy except for a terminal stage cancer..
And as it was pointed out, later generation airliners - 787, 350, 380 - have no fatalities at all.
777 has a few, but a lot of people lived to tell the story of a major crash. If anything, I would look at BA38 and OZ214 vs, say, PC2193 to see the difference

And now we have IX1344.

One Reuters report I read had a victim mentioning crumpled chairs and I thought of this thread.

Yes, I know airplanes that overshoot table top runways and shoot down an embankment can't be expected to end up without damage.

Yet someone should be asking if they shouldn't be doing better, no?
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
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