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LAXintl
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ICAO adopts changes to CORSIA emissions scheme due COVID

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:52 am

Some good news for airlines in the midst of the global downturn.


The International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) agreed on Tuesday to change a landmark aviation emissions scheme, in a boost for airlines that said they could face billions of dollars in costs under the current deal when air travel recovers from the coronavirus pandemic.

The ICAO governing council agreed to change the baseline year used for calculating emissions under the global CORSIA deal to 2019, the agency said in a statement.

Under CORSIA, which starts in 2021, airlines would buy carbon offset credits to cover any emissions from international flights above the current baseline of average emissions, but because emissions from international flights this year are set to drop significantly, IATA asked that the baseline be changed exclusively to 2019, before the pandemic hit aviation.

ICAO said it would have created an “inappropriate economic burden on operators, due to the need to offset more emissions although they are flying less and generating less emissions.”


=

U.N. backs changes to aviation emissions scheme in boost for airlines
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-clim ... SKBN2413MA
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KFLLCFII
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Re: ICAO adopts changes to CORSIA emissions scheme due COVID

Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:36 am

What about the "inappropriate economic burden" on the carbon-offset credit dealers who will now be missing out on billions of dollars of lost revenue?
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ABpositive
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Re: ICAO adopts changes to CORSIA emissions scheme due COVID

Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:06 am

KFLLCFII wrote:
What about the "inappropriate economic burden" on the carbon-offset credit dealers who will now be missing out on billions of dollars of lost revenue?


The point of the change is that using 2020 emissions as a benchmark is not realistic since the emissions have dropped so significantly. Pegging them to 2019 though is a flaw in itself since I don't see the international airline business (CORSIA only applied to international flights) recovering to those levels for quite some time. I anticipate with the exodus of old planes as a consequence, the technology led efficiencies will make the 2019 benchmark irrelevant as well.
This is not considering all the other shortfalls associated with CORSIA (e.g. fossil fuels from "modern" wells or refineries aren't counted towards emissions).
 
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Dutchy
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Re: ICAO adopts changes to CORSIA emissions scheme due COVID

Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:08 am

"generating less emissions" = poluting less.

I think that the CORSIA agreement doesn't move fast enough. The rest of the world has to agree to much harsher downturn in CO2 emissions, the baseline is 2005 for this and for the rest of the world (e.g. Paris agreement) 1990. So the aviation business is exempt in the Paris agreement.

This technical change is logical though, within the CORSIA framework.
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janders
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Re: ICAO adopts changes to CORSIA emissions scheme due COVID

Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:21 pm

Personally dont care for the entire emission nonsense, however keeping 2020 as part of the baseline calculations would have not been a realistic measure and highly punitive on the industry.
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mercure1
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Re: ICAO adopts changes to CORSIA emissions scheme due COVID

Wed Jul 01, 2020 4:53 pm

Yes good news for the industry. This should give them plenty of headroom for years to come.

I've always felt the whole thing was unnecessary anyhow as the industry by its nature seeks to reduce cost and becomes ever more fuel-efficient as time goes on anyhow
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MIflyer12
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Re: ICAO adopts changes to CORSIA emissions scheme due COVID

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:10 pm

mercure1 wrote:

I've always felt the whole thing was unnecessary anyhow as the industry by its nature seeks to reduce cost and becomes ever more fuel-efficient as time goes on anyhow


What's the difference in fuel burn per seat between an early 737-800 (circa 1998) and a present MAX 8? What is that for compounded annualized reduction? Do it for a circa 1998 A320 vs. present A320neo, or circa 2000 767-400 to a 787-8 if you would like. Compare that to global growth rate of ASKs. That's why the industry needs a CO2 reduction mechanism with teeth.
 
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Re: ICAO adopts changes to CORSIA emissions scheme due COVID

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:25 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
mercure1 wrote:

I've always felt the whole thing was unnecessary anyhow as the industry by its nature seeks to reduce cost and becomes ever more fuel-efficient as time goes on anyhow


What's the difference in fuel burn per seat between an early 737-800 (circa 1998) and a present MAX 8?
At present, the MAX 8 burns very little fuel.
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Aesma
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Re: ICAO adopts changes to CORSIA emissions scheme due COVID

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:46 pm

mercure1 wrote:
Yes good news for the industry. This should give them plenty of headroom for years to come.

I've always felt the whole thing was unnecessary anyhow as the industry by its nature seeks to reduce cost and becomes ever more fuel-efficient as time goes on anyhow


Planes burn a bit less fuel individually, but there are many, many, many more planes, and the growth is continuing at an accelerated pace.
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lightsaber
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Re: ICAO adopts changes to CORSIA emissions scheme due COVID

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:56 pm

mercure1 wrote:
Yes good news for the industry. This should give them plenty of headroom for years to come.

I've always felt the whole thing was unnecessary anyhow as the industry by its nature seeks to reduce cost and becomes ever more fuel-efficient as time goes on anyhow

This industry lives and dies off fuel bills.


The economy and this emissions will be low for years.

Due to the poor economy, airlines will want to cut maintenance expenses, which means retiring the highest variable cost aircraft.

Since China is excluded from these emissions regulations, how can one take them seriously? #2 economy gets a free ride despite being carbon heavy?

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marcelh
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Re: ICAO adopts changes to CORSIA emissions scheme due COVID

Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:17 am

[quote="lightsaber”]
Since China is excluded from these emissions regulations, how can one take them seriously? #2 economy gets a free ride despite being carbon heavy?

Lightsaber[/quote]
CORSIA can’t be taken seriously, because it excludes domestic flights by definition. So all the US domestic flights are part of a “free ride” as well...
 
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janders
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Re: ICAO adopts changes to CORSIA emissions scheme due COVID

Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:39 pm

I guess part of the debate is if even if there is a CO2 problem, and what if anything airlines have to do with it.

With aviation producing a mere 2.4 percent of global CO2 emissions in 2018, its a small pimple and in my opinion hardly worth chasing when the industry from OEMs to airlines all have an inherent interest in being ever more efficient.
Yes hopefully the industry continues to grow, but there are much larger natural and man-made CO2 producers to chase after if its an issue for you.
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ScottB
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Re: ICAO adopts changes to CORSIA emissions scheme due COVID

Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:13 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
What's the difference in fuel burn per seat between an early 737-800 (circa 1998) and a present MAX 8? What is that for compounded annualized reduction? Do it for a circa 1998 A320 vs. present A320neo, or circa 2000 767-400 to a 787-8 if you would like. Compare that to global growth rate of ASKs. That's why the industry needs a CO2 reduction mechanism with teeth.


The issue with that line of thinking is that there's no real viable replacement for fossil fuels in aviation as the industry is currently constituted. You might be able to use batteries for very small airliners (~10 passengers) on missions up to 1,000 km but that's a tiny niche -- well under 0.01% of the global market. Not to mention getting a battery recharged within a commercially reasonable amount of time between flights would be problematic. Mass production of biofuels large enough to power the global aviation industry would carry its own set of environmental issues. Hydrogen fuel cells might work although energy density per unit volume is a challenge.

And as others have pointed out, aviation is a tiny fraction of global carbon dioxide production. While it is logical to try to find replacements for fossil fuels in the aviation sector, that technology is unlikely to exist within the next few decades. It's far more productive to focus efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in sectors where viable and even more attractive alternatives to fossil-fuel-powered solutions already exist -- like electricity production, cars, trucks, trains, heating, agriculture, etc.
 
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Re: ICAO adopts changes to CORSIA emissions scheme due COVID

Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:09 pm

 
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Phosphorus
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Re: ICAO adopts changes to CORSIA emissions scheme due COVID

Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:54 am

Cargo airlines would probably hate this. They work around the clock in 2020, while 2019 was not the best of years for them (some were teetering on the brink), in terms of kilometers flown.
Now, in 2021, some bureaucrat would come to them, demanding money, because they managed to stay in business, and grow it?
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smartplane
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Re: ICAO adopts changes to CORSIA emissions scheme due COVID

Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:15 am

Entirely logical to use 2019 as the base year. COVID effects mean windfall gains for 2020 and beyond.
 
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Aesma
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Re: ICAO adopts changes to CORSIA emissions scheme due COVID

Sat Jul 04, 2020 1:53 pm

ScottB wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
What's the difference in fuel burn per seat between an early 737-800 (circa 1998) and a present MAX 8? What is that for compounded annualized reduction? Do it for a circa 1998 A320 vs. present A320neo, or circa 2000 767-400 to a 787-8 if you would like. Compare that to global growth rate of ASKs. That's why the industry needs a CO2 reduction mechanism with teeth.


The issue with that line of thinking is that there's no real viable replacement for fossil fuels in aviation as the industry is currently constituted.


The issue with that line of thinking is that you can find excuse for 100% of our CO2 emissions that way. In fact some US politicians will find excuses for 1000%, no problem !

If fuels can't change or become greener, then buy carbon credits or pay a carbon tax.
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ScottB
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Re: ICAO adopts changes to CORSIA emissions scheme due COVID

Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:07 am

Aesma wrote:
The issue with that line of thinking is that you can find excuse for 100% of our CO2 emissions that way. In fact some US politicians will find excuses for 1000%, no problem !

If fuels can't change or become greener, then buy carbon credits or pay a carbon tax.


Well no, that's not true. The point is to focus on the easier, less costly places to reduce GHG emissions, if the true goal is to maximize global benefit for a certain allowed level of emissions. Artificially increasing the cost of air travel through a carbon tax will obviously reduce demand for travel, but that has knock-on effects -- like damage to tourism or industries which rely on shipping by air.

A carbon tax which isn't applied globally will have problems with effectiveness. Fossil fuel producers will try to find new markets even if Europe turns away.

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