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onwFan
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 4:52 pm

raylee67 wrote:
With AS as its partner, it may have more success than DL and will provide a very strong competition. SEA cannot sustain as trans-Pac hub for both AA/AS and DL. One of them will be forced out.

I think this is true especially for the next few post-covid years. AA/AS will have almost double the feed at SEA.

DL already has SLC as a buffer for the Northwest. If anyone blinks, I think it will be DL. Will we see them focus on LAX for transpacific? They will just need to move PKX from SEA (They won’t be able to make HKG work, at least in the near future). They will then have HND, ICN, PKX, PVG, TPE covered between them and partners.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:11 pm

I agree seems too optimistic for Summer 2021. It's less than a year away. Business travel won't be back that's for certain. Leisure will be higher but not sure this much. There is so much that has to happen for mass numbers to come back and we don't seem way behind pace of where we would need to be.

LAX is a great place to burn money. Too competative. The airlines are just not in the position to fight for market share. Not their priority. I bet we see delta do some lax shrinking as well SEA I have no idea. Delta kind of has to recommit to sea or abandon. They were not doing so great pre covid,and pre the new AS/AApartnership coming their way. I don't delta even knows what to do , kind of a try and see how things change for sea but they seem in as of know. Question is how much cash can they burn for sea given the unprecedented situation they are in and alot of their foreign investments crashing. Really impossible to predict anything these days! Only thing I can really assume is we will see airlines rely on core hubs more than ever. Get ready for more connecting in 2021-2025 unless you live at a core hub
 
flyboy7974
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:14 pm

usflyer msp wrote:
aerace wrote:
JAMBOJET wrote:
Wasn't it announced before? Quick google flights search shows it's for-sale starting October 24th.


Summer seasonals from PHL not mentioned in the cuts (SNN, EDI, BCN, LIS, PRG, VCE, ATH) are all showing as bookable on Google Flights, so unless demand continues to lag, these appear to be a go.


They really should clarify the "routes we are going to fly" section if that does not actually includes the all the routes they plan on flying. It is misleading.


Agree with that, confusing release but if not noted as discontinued, flights will operate.

Here in PHL, lose DBV/BUD/TXL/CMN but told all others are a go. Also informed CMN will return with the A321XLR.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:15 pm

enilria wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Key takeaways here are less int'l from LAX, and decreasing long-thin routes

Should be interesting to watch, especially SEA-PVG

CLT down to 3 int'l routes it looks like

http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx

I don't understand why two carriers flying SEA-PVG is a good idea, particularly when it is a double connect from most of AA's network.


SEA already had two airlines serving SEA-PVG with DL and HU. But I don't think HU will come back to SEA.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:18 pm

DFW17L wrote:
Detroit313 wrote:
Nice to see more growth for AA in Seattle!


I agree. Isn’t AA, though, gate-constrained at SEA? Or do they pick up more S-gates for their international flights?


Don't forget that with the new customs facility underneath the A-gates and some A-gates being international "capable", it temporarily gives SEA a little more capacity to handle more overseas flights. Still, it wouldn't surprise me if some overseas flights are at remote gates.
 
Flflyer83
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:21 pm

enilria wrote:
I don't understand why two carriers flying SEA-PVG is a good idea, particularly when it is a double connect from most of AA's network.


Because AA will have the benefit of having feed from approximately 90 destinations that Alaska serves nonstop from SEA. That’s a pretty good source of feed.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:26 pm

Maybe someone with more knowledge of LAX can guide me here:

Would AA be able to use any of the gates that were being used for Asia & other long-haul, for additional domestic routes/frequencies? From AA pre-covid statements, it appeared that there wasn't much room to grow domestically otherwise until new gates come online
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
onwFan
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:33 pm

[threeid][/threeid]
Midwestindy wrote:
Maybe someone with more knowledge of LAX can guide me here:

Would AA be able to use any of the gates that were being used for Asia & other long-haul, for additional domestic routes/frequencies? From AA pre-covid statements, it appeared that there wasn't much room to grow domestically otherwise until new gates come online

I don’t think we would necessarily see much ‘growth’ in LAX, it will be a lot of rejigging to suit the domestic network. They will soon have the entire T4/T5 to themselves, and AS at T6. Eagle’s nest will probably never reopen.
 
jplatts
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:11 pm

Flflyer83 wrote:
enilria wrote:
I don't understand why two carriers flying SEA-PVG is a good idea, particularly when it is a double connect from most of AA's network.


Because AA will have the benefit of having feed from approximately 90 destinations that Alaska serves nonstop from SEA. That’s a pretty good source of feed.


AA will also have connecting feed onto its SEA international flights from its CLT/ORD/DFW/LAX/MIA/PHL/PHX nonstop flights. In addition, AA's CLT, MIA, PHL, and PHX hubs also currently lack nonstop service to East Asia.
 
alasizon
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:28 pm

onwFan wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Maybe someone with more knowledge of LAX can guide me here:

Would AA be able to use any of the gates that were being used for Asia & other long-haul, for additional domestic routes/frequencies? From AA pre-covid statements, it appeared that there wasn't much room to grow domestically otherwise until new gates come online

I don’t think we would necessarily see much ‘growth’ in LAX, it will be a lot of rejigging to suit the domestic network. They will soon have the entire T4/T5 to themselves, and AS at T6. Eagle’s nest will probably never reopen.


To be fair, if they did choose/need to re-open the Nest; that would provide them more NB gates on T5. T4 without all the widebodies will really be able to handle a lot more narrowbodies so if they want to go more head-to-head in the domestic market, they have the gates now.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
baje427
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:35 pm

All of this is basically speculative to be honest. For all we know Corona and the new Swine Flu may render international travel a thing of the past.
 
SurfandSnow
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:37 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Key takeaways here are less int'l from LAX, and decreasing long-thin routes


IIRC, AA had publicly stated that hubs in Los Angeles and New York City were problematic financially. Cutting the weaker international routes from LAX certainly makes sense, and I can't help but wonder if some of the more obscure domestic services are on the chopping block (if they haven't been cut already). Does AA still fly LAX-ATL/BDL/CMH/IND/MCO/MSY/OMA/SDF? Surely O&D traffic can connect via PHX, DFW and in some cases even CLT or ORD. Those connecting beyond LAX to places like Australia and Hawaii could also be routed via the likes of DFW and PHX.

Midwestindy wrote:
Should be interesting to watch, especially SEA-PVG


Right? It doesn't look like AA, AS or DL are backing down at SEA.

Midwestindy wrote:
CLT down to 3 int'l routes it looks like


3 long haul routes, perhaps. I can't imagine CLT will lose much international service to Latin America and the Caribbean, though! I suspect there will always be quite a few people paying a pretty penny to escape, say, ALB or MDT in the winter for popular vacation spots like CUN, MBJ, NAS, PUJ etc.
Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
 
gmcc
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:43 pm

onwFan wrote:
[threeid][/threeid]
Midwestindy wrote:
Maybe someone with more knowledge of LAX can guide me here:

Would AA be able to use any of the gates that were being used for Asia & other long-haul, for additional domestic routes/frequencies? From AA pre-covid statements, it appeared that there wasn't much room to grow domestically otherwise until new gates come online

I don’t think we would necessarily see much ‘growth’ in LAX, it will be a lot of rejigging to suit the domestic network. They will soon have the entire T4/T5 to themselves, and AS at T6. Eagle’s nest will probably never reopen.


They might have all of T4/5 soon but will also be rebuilding most of T4 in the near future see link. Not sorry to see the nest gone.

https://www.lawa.org/lawa-our-lax/envir ... on-project
 
jasoncrh
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:44 pm

That's one of the biggest myths everywhere. In the summer, people do pay cash for those seats up front to Italy and Eastern Europe. In a country of 360 million, it's really not that hard to find 30-40 people a day willing to pay for a comfortable seat in the summer time on their big european vacation. in addition, cruise lines do a HUGE business in selling / occupying business class seats to cities such as Rome, Venice, Athens, Barcelona where there's cruise traffic. in the summer, airlines do NOT fill up their premium international cabins with frequent flyer redemptions; it's mostly cash.

NYCAAer wrote:
alasizon wrote:
NYCAAer wrote:

Seasonal summer flying with little premium demand on both routes.


Agreed but CLT-FCO fills the demand in the summer without any issues and makes money. It isn't as if they are selling all the seats at junk yields. Even with traffic down 25-30%, it still would have made money.

PHL-BUD actually does have premium traffic as well as the leisure component (unlike DBV) which is why I'm surprised to see it go away. I have no clue what industry the premium traffic is associated with but there is a decent amount there, albeit mostly connecting. I also don't expect Americans as a whole to stop wanting to go to Eastern Europe and for a lot of people BUD and PRG have been the jumping off points; now they will either connect in LHR or take another airline.


But business class is filled with AAdvantage mile burn off on FCO, especially from the region that the route served from its captive area. Same for JFK-FCO.
 
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SuseJ772
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:47 pm

enilria wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
CLT and LAX look like the big losers here. PHL and DFW made our pretty well.

Presently PHL cannot legally accept any intl flights per U.S. restrictions.

I am not disagreeing with you, but why? What is different about PHL than say JFK? I hadn’t seen that.
Currently at PIE, requesting FWA >> >>
 
N649DL
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:48 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
CLT and LAX look like the big losers here. PHL and DFW made our pretty well.


ORD is the big one. I had no idea ORD to KRK, VCE, PRG or BUD were previously announced.
 
codc10
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:57 pm

The Eagle's Nest goes away with the T9 project, but I am not certain of the timetable.

gmcc wrote:
onwFan wrote:
[threeid][/threeid]
Midwestindy wrote:
Maybe someone with more knowledge of LAX can guide me here:

Would AA be able to use any of the gates that were being used for Asia & other long-haul, for additional domestic routes/frequencies? From AA pre-covid statements, it appeared that there wasn't much room to grow domestically otherwise until new gates come online

I don’t think we would necessarily see much ‘growth’ in LAX, it will be a lot of rejigging to suit the domestic network. They will soon have the entire T4/T5 to themselves, and AS at T6. Eagle’s nest will probably never reopen.


They might have all of T4/5 soon but will also be rebuilding most of T4 in the near future see link. Not sorry to see the nest gone.

https://www.lawa.org/lawa-our-lax/envir ... on-project


Near future, meaning within the next 10 years? This project seems to be in its relative infancy.
 
x1234
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:03 pm

Hong Kong and the one world connections to South and Southeast Asia will be exclusively by CX which has more fuel efficient aircraft (A350-1000). Shanghai is the commercial center of China and will now be flown out of SEA. DL should be able to weather the storm with their China Eastern partnership in SkyTeam. Is DFW-HKG/PVG still flying? The article only mentioned Beijing. There’s Latin American demand out of PVG and HKG. Also AA will take advantage of JALs network out of HND.
 
hiflyeras
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:04 pm

SEA-PVG on AA doesn't bode well for HU returning on that route. Maybe AS/AA know something we don't....not that they talk or anything about routes as that'd be illegal, right?
 
chonetsao
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:12 pm

x1234 wrote:
Hong Kong and the one world connections to South and Southeast Asia will be exclusively by CX which has more fuel efficient aircraft (A350-1000). Shanghai is the commercial center of China and will now be flown out of SEA. DL should be able to weather the storm with their China Eastern partnership in SkyTeam. Is DFW-HKG/PVG still flying? The article only mentioned Beijing. There’s Latin American demand out of PVG and HKG. Also AA will take advantage of JALs network out of HND.


AFAIK, DFW-HKG is staying. DFW-PVG so far is still staying but you never know.

I think AA is shifting strategy and will aim to have deeper cooperation with JAL.

DL and China Eastern are still competing on US-CN traffic even though they are partners. There is no JV between DL and MU like the one between DL and KE. The future is very uncertain on the US-CN routes. I don't think any of the US3 is seriously considering expanding or even keep the current route authorities. I can see DL build up more ICN presence on the expense of PEK or PVG in near future.
 
kavok
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:39 pm

It is all a giant chess match, and this move by AA basically solidifies the proverbial “your move, Delta.”

Up until the AS to OneWorld move, Delta was winning the long term battle for SEA. Yes AS still had a much larger presence and was not going away, but Delta was quickly becoming the go-to airline for businesses in Seattle because of the larger network opportunities (both intl and onward domestic connections from other DL hubs).

The AA and Oneworld move changes things. And now DL is in the weaker position for the time being. Whether they will (or even can) continue to grow market share remains to be seen. But doing so at SEA will come at a very high cost, at a time when finances aren’t great.

Delta could double down and build up a presence in LAX instead, which like JFK is a market no airline can ever dominate... but even if they do t dominate, they certainly could try and overtake AA there much like they did in JFK. Arguably at this point, growing LAX is a lower hanging fruit. I will be curious to see what Delta does, but they may wait and see how the Covid situation plays out before deciding further.
Last edited by kavok on Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
AA747123
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:42 pm

Detroit313 wrote:
AA and Alaska closer and closer to a merger.



It will never happen. DOJ would never approve it.
 
MAH4546
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:44 pm

SurfandSnow wrote:

IIRC, AA had publicly stated that hubs in Los Angeles and New York City were problematic financially. Cutting the weaker international routes from LAX certainly makes sense, and I can't help but wonder if some of the more obscure domestic services are on the chopping block (if they haven't been cut already). Does AA still fly LAX-ATL/BDL/CMH/IND/MCO/MSY/OMA/SDF? Surely O&D traffic can connect via PHX, DFW and in some cases even CLT or ORD. Those connecting beyond LAX to places like Australia and Hawaii could also be routed via the likes of DFW and PHX.


Yes, AA still flies those routes. AA is very strong at LAX domestically for local traffic so it doesn't necessarily go away. LAX-SDF/OMA/etc isn't filling with Shanghai traffic. MCO isn't even the same category as the rest and AA has flown that for 30+ years and is the largest in the market.

Now there will obviously be cuts but expectation is AA will continue a strong LAX domestic operation and feed into its Japan/Oceania/Hawaii flights and don't forget partners.
Last edited by MAH4546 on Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
a.
 
tphuang
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:45 pm

kavok wrote:
It is all a giant chess match, and this move by AA basically solidifies the proverbial “your move, Delta.”

Up until the AS to OneWorld move, Delta was winning the long term battle for SEA. Yes AS still had a much larger presence and was not going away, but Delta was quickly becoming the go-to airline for businesses in Seattle because of the larger network opportunities (both intl and onward domestic connections from other DL hubs).

The AA and Oneworld move changes things. And now DL is in the weaker position for the time being. Whether they will (or even can) continue to grow market share remains to be seen. But doing so at SEA will come at a very high cost, at a time when finances aren’t great.

Delta could double down and build up a presence in LAX instead, which like JFK is a market no airline can ever dominate... but even if they do t dominate, they certainly could try and overtake AA there much like they did in JFK. Arguably at this point, growing LAX is a lower hanging fruit. I will be curious to see what Delta does, but they may wait and see how the Covid situation plays out before deciding further.


Yet, DL has brought back SEA capacity faster than LAX capacity. It's completely mystifying to me. But as long as they are willing to keep this grudge match with AA/AS going, it will be great for everyone else.
 
x1234
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:45 pm

Also there's way too much Asian competition out of LAX/SFO but somehow UA with its high-tech contracts ala Apple manages to keep it profitable pre-Covid. SEA & SFO have HUGE high-tech demand which is a driver of contracts. AA should be able to get the Texas high-tech busineeses (and businsses moving from high cost California) and the businesses in Seattle.
 
onwFan
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:02 pm

AA747123 wrote:
Detroit313 wrote:
AA and Alaska closer and closer to a merger.



It will never happen. DOJ would never approve it.

That was so true till Mar 2020.
 
MAH4546
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Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:25 pm

onwFan wrote:
AA747123 wrote:
Detroit313 wrote:
AA and Alaska closer and closer to a merger.



It will never happen. DOJ would never approve it.

That was so true till Mar 2020.


Still true.
a.
 
Kbud
Posts: 32
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:25 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
CLT and LAX look like the big losers here. PHL and DFW made our pretty well.

Chicago too. Chicago has been on an int'l backward spiral for a decade now. It's pretty much LHR and a few Mexico and Caribbean routes.

I live in Charlotte now and go to Asia about 4 times per year, and Europe about the same. I try to get the miles for American but it is harder and harder with their slim int'l Asia schedule. Yes the offering will be much smaller for the next few years, but my only option to get to China was through DFW. The connection times in LA didn't work, and because AA has minimal flight options, they charge A LOT on the nonstops from DFW. Usually I can't even pick them because of the price and our corporate policy compared to other available flights.

American couldn't make ORD work to Asia. I would have to bet that they have much more connecting passenger traffic there compared to Alaska in Seattle. The big difference is that no one in the Pacific Northwest will want to connect backwards to ORD or DFW. Is Seattle that large with local demand and Alaska Air feed to make it work compared to Delta and the Int'l carriers from Asia that already serve Seattle?
 
IPFreely
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:43 pm

kavok wrote:
Up until the AS to OneWorld move, Delta was winning the long term battle for SEA.


Alaska/Horizon market share in SEA has slowly but steadily increased since Delta started "winning".
 
aviator2000
Posts: 46
Joined: Sun May 20, 2018 11:19 am

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:46 pm

Kbud wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
CLT and LAX look like the big losers here. PHL and DFW made our pretty well.

Chicago too. Chicago has been on an int'l backward spiral for a decade now. It's pretty much LHR and a few Mexico and Caribbean routes.

I live in Charlotte now and go to Asia about 4 times per year, and Europe about the same. I try to get the miles for American but it is harder and harder with their slim int'l Asia schedule. Yes the offering will be much smaller for the next few years, but my only option to get to China was through DFW. The connection times in LA didn't work, and because AA has minimal flight options, they charge A LOT on the nonstops from DFW. Usually I can't even pick them because of the price and our corporate policy compared to other available flights.

American couldn't make ORD work to Asia. I would have to bet that they have much more connecting passenger traffic there compared to Alaska in Seattle. The big difference is that no one in the Pacific Northwest will want to connect backwards to ORD or DFW. Is Seattle that large with local demand and Alaska Air feed to make it work compared to Delta and the Int'l carriers from Asia that already serve Seattle?


Perhaps AA has downsized ORD in the past decade but it is definitely not just "LHR and a few Mexico + Caribbean routes". They had plans to launch several destinations to Eastern Europe pre-covid and they already serve a few secondary destinations like DUB, BCN and ATH.
 
IPFreely
Posts: 2585
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:49 pm

Kbud wrote:
American couldn't make ORD work to Asia. I would have to bet that they have much more connecting passenger traffic there compared to Alaska in Seattle.


"In business, competition is never as healthy as total domination.” - Peter Lynch.

In Chicago, American had to compete with an 800 lb gorilla for ORD-Asia.

In Seattle there is no 800 lb gorilla, only a 400 lb gorilla. And American isn't competing with the 400 lb gorilla, they've partnered with it.

Big difference.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 3712
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:55 pm

aviator2000 wrote:
Kbud wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
CLT and LAX look like the big losers here. PHL and DFW made our pretty well.

Chicago too. Chicago has been on an int'l backward spiral for a decade now. It's pretty much LHR and a few Mexico and Caribbean routes.

I live in Charlotte now and go to Asia about 4 times per year, and Europe about the same. I try to get the miles for American but it is harder and harder with their slim int'l Asia schedule. Yes the offering will be much smaller for the next few years, but my only option to get to China was through DFW. The connection times in LA didn't work, and because AA has minimal flight options, they charge A LOT on the nonstops from DFW. Usually I can't even pick them because of the price and our corporate policy compared to other available flights.

American couldn't make ORD work to Asia. I would have to bet that they have much more connecting passenger traffic there compared to Alaska in Seattle. The big difference is that no one in the Pacific Northwest will want to connect backwards to ORD or DFW. Is Seattle that large with local demand and Alaska Air feed to make it work compared to Delta and the Int'l carriers from Asia that already serve Seattle?


Perhaps AA has downsized ORD in the past decade but it is definitely not just "LHR and a few Mexico + Caribbean routes". They had plans to launch several destinations to Eastern Europe pre-covid and they already serve a few secondary destinations like DUB, BCN and ATH.


ORD-LHR is the AA's only year-round long-haul route from ORD. AA's international network from ORD is mostly Mexico and Caribbean and even then its mostly seasonal and lacking major business destinations like MEX.
 
Ishrion
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:55 pm

Application for the China routes: https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0076-0039

- AA seeks dormancy on DFW-PEK from October 25, 2020 to March 28, 2021.
- AA returns the LAX-PEK slots (typo in the app: "American last operated its service on this route on February 8, 2019".
- AA hopes LAX-PVG shifts to SEA starting March 28, 2021 on the 787-9.

Westbound, AA183 will depart SEA at 12:50 and arrive in PVG at 16:25 + 1; eastbound AA182 will depart PVG at 18:25 and arrive in SEA at 15:10.
 
illinicmi
Posts: 41
Joined: Wed Aug 19, 2009 4:21 pm

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:00 pm

Kbud wrote:
American couldn't make ORD work to Asia. I would have to bet that they have much more connecting passenger traffic there compared to Alaska in Seattle. The big difference is that no one in the Pacific Northwest will want to connect backwards to ORD or DFW. Is Seattle that large with local demand and Alaska Air feed to make it work compared to Delta and the Int'l carriers from Asia that already serve Seattle?


Here's my question. If connecting traffic was roughly the same to SEA and LAX anywhere west of the Rockies, which airport makes more sense to connect through to fly to Asia? To me the obvious answer is SEA. It's "on the way" and a lot shorter flight to, say, PVG from SEA than LAX. East of the Rockies, AA is gonna route everybody they can through DFW. It's the AA way. But to your point, west of there people won't want to backtrack. So assuming AS can connect SEA as well as AA can connect LAX, why not fly through SEA? As was said earlier, isn't the main traffic to Asia coming from well north of LA anyway? Sure, there's some O&D traffic to Asia from LA, but there's probably more from SF on up the coast to the NW.

Put another way, why should all the Asia traffic north and east of LA have to essentially backtrack to LA, when they could take the shorter route through SEA? If AA had no connection to SEA or AS, sure it make sense. But that's no longer the case. They do now.
Last edited by illinicmi on Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3519
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:02 pm

Kbud wrote:
American couldn't make ORD work to Asia. I would have to bet that they have much more connecting passenger traffic there compared to Alaska in Seattle. The big difference is that no one in the Pacific Northwest will want to connect backwards to ORD or DFW. Is Seattle that large with local demand and Alaska Air feed to make it work compared to Delta and the Int'l carriers from Asia that already serve Seattle?


There will also be some connecting feed from AS destinations in the Mountain West and Midwest in addition to connecting feed from AA hubs and the Pacific Northwest on AA's international flights out of SEA.

AA's codeshare partner CZ has a hub at PVG, and AA will also be able to offer connections from its SEA-PVG nonstop flights onto CZ flights out of PVG to destinations in China, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. In addition to connections onto CZ flights out of PVG, AA will also be able to offer connections from its SEA-PVG nonstop flights onto MH PVG-BKI/KUL and UL PVG-CMB flights.

AA can likely make SEA-PVG nonstop service work with connections to/from China, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam on CZ, MH, and UL on the PVG end, connections to/from the Pacific Northwest, Mountain West, and Midwest on AS on the SEA end, connections to/from AA hubs on the SEA end, and SEA-PVG O&D traffic.
 
ABEguy
Posts: 109
Joined: Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:02 pm

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:18 pm

alasizon wrote:
CLT-FCO and PHL-BUD are the two main cuts that don't make sense to me, but other than that I get it.


I think the booking widow time frame that they start monitoring on seasonal routes like that is like 8 months out. I guess they werent seeing strong early bookings and decided to cut the flights and not build the summer 2021 schedule/banks with those routes in mind. Now if theres a vaccine next year and demand suddenly spikes, AA could get those people to DBV and such via LHR/MAD/BCN. Then look to summer 2022 to possibly add that stuff back in non-stop.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3519
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:20 pm

IPFreely wrote:
Kbud wrote:
American couldn't make ORD work to Asia. I would have to bet that they have much more connecting passenger traffic there compared to Alaska in Seattle.


"In business, competition is never as healthy as total domination.” - Peter Lynch.

In Chicago, American had to compete with an 800 lb gorilla for ORD-Asia.

In Seattle there is no 800 lb gorilla, only a 400 lb gorilla. And American isn't competing with the 400 lb gorilla, they've partnered with it.


AA's oneworld partner CX still serves HKG nonstop from ORD, and AA's oneworld partner JL still serves TYO nonstop from ORD.

Reasons why AA's partners CX and JL can likely make Asia to ORD nonstop service work include:
(a) Chicago, Hong Kong, and Tokyo all being major financial centers and business destinations,
(b) CX and JL having stronger brand recognition in Asia,
(c) Both CX and JL having a frequent flyer base in Asia to support CX HKG-ORD and JL TYO-ORD nonstop service,
(d) AA being able to connect passengers onto CX ORD-HKG and JL ORD-TYO nonstop flights from other U.S. destinations east of the Mississippi River,
(e) CX and JL being able to connect passengers onto AA domestic flights out of ORD to destinations east of the Mississippi River, and
(f) U.S.-based passengers being able to book JL ORD-TYO nonstop flights through AA.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 3712
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:21 pm

jplatts wrote:
Kbud wrote:
American couldn't make ORD work to Asia. I would have to bet that they have much more connecting passenger traffic there compared to Alaska in Seattle. The big difference is that no one in the Pacific Northwest will want to connect backwards to ORD or DFW. Is Seattle that large with local demand and Alaska Air feed to make it work compared to Delta and the Int'l carriers from Asia that already serve Seattle?


There will also be some connecting feed from AS destinations in the Mountain West and Midwest in addition to connecting feed from AA hubs and the Pacific Northwest on AA's international flights out of SEA.

AA's codeshare partner CZ has a hub at PVG, and AA will also be able to offer connections from its SEA-PVG nonstop flights onto CZ flights out of PVG to destinations in China, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. In addition to connections onto CZ flights out of PVG, AA will also be able to offer connections from its SEA-PVG nonstop flights onto MH PVG-BKI/KUL and UL PVG-CMB flights.

AA can likely make SEA-PVG nonstop service work with connections to/from China, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam on CZ, MH, and UL on the PVG end, connections to/from the Pacific Northwest, Mountain West, and Midwest on AS on the SEA end, connections to/from AA hubs on the SEA end, and SEA-PVG O&D traffic.


No one is doing an ITI transfer in China unless its really cheap or there is no other choice. Just saying...
 
jayunited
Posts: 2766
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Application for the China routes: https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0076-0039

- AA seeks dormancy on DFW-PEK from October 25, 2020 to March 28, 2021.
- AA returns the LAX-PEK slots (typo in the app: "American last operated its service on this route on February 8, 2019".
- AA hopes LAX-PVG shifts to SEA starting March 28, 2021 on the 787-9.

Westbound, AA183 will depart SEA at 12:50 and arrive in PVG at 16:25 + 1; eastbound AA182 will depart PVG at 18:25 and arrive in SEA at 15:10.



I think we will see UA apply for dormancy for our ORD-PEK, IAD-PEK and perhaps even our EWR-PEK routes as well. The demand simply isn't there and probably won't be until some time in 2021. It is anyones guest what UA will do with our LAX-PVG route, UA like DL and AA seems to be focusing on rebuilding our other hubs for now. It will be interesting to see come 2021 if UA operates LAX-MEL/SYD/HND/NRT.

Quick question about AA at SEA, will AA also increase their domestic presence or are they simply providing the international lift while allowing AS to do the heavy lifting domestically?
 
jbs2886
Posts: 2329
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:25 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Application for the China routes: https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0076-0039

- AA seeks dormancy on DFW-PEK from October 25, 2020 to March 28, 2021.
- AA returns the LAX-PEK slots (typo in the app: "American last operated its service on this route on February 8, 2019".
- AA hopes LAX-PVG shifts to SEA starting March 28, 2021 on the 787-9.

Westbound, AA183 will depart SEA at 12:50 and arrive in PVG at 16:25 + 1; eastbound AA182 will depart PVG at 18:25 and arrive in SEA at 15:10.


The drama we had on LAX-PEK and now AA drops it (obviously understandable...just amazing how things change).
 
ABEguy
Posts: 109
Joined: Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:02 pm

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:39 pm

Anyone’s guess how well this Asia from SEA strategy is going to work but here’s what we do know. SEA to PEK/PVG is about 600nm shorter than from LAX. that’s about 1.5 hours shorter and a significant cost reduction for a given flight. That makes AA much leaner and more competitive on flight to China. The opposite is true for SYD and AKL so I’m guessing those will stay in LAX. No idea about NRT/HND. I don’t really like the idea of depending on ALK for the feed but hey, no one asked me.
 
DoctorVenkman
Posts: 194
Joined: Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:10 pm

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:39 pm

I wonder if UA will take the opportunity to expand their international presence at LAX now that AA is pulling out. Routes like LAX-HKG and LAX-PEK seem like obvious picks where they could be the only US carrier flying there. If they launched those they would be far and away the biggest international carrier out of LAX.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26152
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:02 pm

DoctorVenkman wrote:
I wonder if UA will take the opportunity to expand their international presence at LAX now that AA is pulling out. Routes like LAX-HKG and LAX-PEK seem like obvious picks where they could be the only US carrier flying there. If they launched those they would be far and away the biggest international carrier out of LAX.


Demand has collapsed. They need to funnel that through San Francisco for the time being.
a.
 
boilerla
Posts: 420
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 5:30 am

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:06 pm

ABEguy wrote:
Anyone’s guess how well this Asia from SEA strategy is going to work but here’s what we do know. SEA to PEK/PVG is about 600nm shorter than from LAX. that’s about 1.5 hours shorter and a significant cost reduction for a given flight. That makes AA much leaner and more competitive on flight to China. The opposite is true for SYD and AKL so I’m guessing those will stay in LAX. No idea about NRT/HND. I don’t really like the idea of depending on ALK for the feed but hey, no one asked me.

That only matters if there's local demand for SEA-PEK/PVG. If you're just doing a lot of connections from AK, without having the luxury of UA at SFO to control pricing on the connections, AA could end up having trash yields on a long flight. It's a good win for AK, not sure for AA. Of course all of this is conjecture--I don't see business demand returning to 100% by next summer, and if there's not enough demand for paid J travel to PVG or PEK, these flights won't make it.
 
gaystudpilot
Posts: 250
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2007 10:55 pm

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:49 pm

kavok wrote:
It is all a giant chess match, and this move by AA basically solidifies the proverbial “your move, Delta.”

Up until the AS to OneWorld move, Delta was winning the long term battle for SEA. Yes AS still had a much larger presence and was not going away, but Delta was quickly becoming the go-to airline for businesses in Seattle because of the larger network opportunities (both intl and onward domestic connections from other DL hubs).

The AA and Oneworld move changes things. And now DL is in the weaker position for the time being. Whether they will (or even can) continue to grow market share remains to be seen. But doing so at SEA will come at a very high cost, at a time when finances aren’t great.

Delta could double down and build up a presence in LAX instead, which like JFK is a market no airline can ever dominate... but even if they do t dominate, they certainly could try and overtake AA there much like they did in JFK. Arguably at this point, growing LAX is a lower hanging fruit. I will be curious to see what Delta does, but they may wait and see how the Covid situation plays out before deciding further.


It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Delta fumbled SEA. Given its investment I can not imagine DL did not run risk scenarios and see AA/AS/oneWorld coming. There is no way SEA can support hubs for AA/AS and DL. Barring AA having to significantly shrink, DL will have to retrench, at best making SEA a focus city, and place more network emphasis on LAX.

AA should be well positioned in SEA with AS, CX and JL to be extremely successful. If AA can’t make SEA work, the whole executive team should be ousted. Was anyone at DL ousted for its SEA mess?
 
jplatts
Posts: 3519
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:21 pm

gaystudpilot wrote:
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Delta fumbled SEA. Given its investment I can not imagine DL did not run risk scenarios and see AA/AS/oneWorld coming. There is no way SEA can support hubs for AA/AS and DL. Barring AA having to significantly shrink, DL will have to retrench, at best making SEA a focus city, and place more network emphasis on LAX.

AA should be well positioned in SEA with AS, CX and JL to be extremely successful. If AA can’t make SEA work, the whole executive team should be ousted. Was anyone at DL ousted for its SEA mess?


One advantage that AA has over AS, DL, UA, or WN in the SEA market is that AA is the only airline to serve its CLT hub nonstop from SEA.

While DL is currently the only airline serving KIX nonstop from SEA, JL adding SEA-KIX nonstop service might be a possibility due to
(a) JL having a FF base in the Keihanshin (Kyoto/Osaka/Kobe) region to support SEA-KIX nonstop service on JL,
(b) AS having a FF base in Greater Seattle and other Pacific Northwest markets to support SEA-KIX nonstop service on JL,
(c) Business ties that exist between Greater Seattle and the Keihanshin region such as Kyoto-based Nintendo having its North American headquarters in Redmond, WA,
(d) Business ties that exist between the Keihanshin region and other cities in the contiguous U.S. such as Chicago, Cincinnati, Dallas, Indianapolis, and Newark,
(e) JL being able to connect passengers from KIX onto AS and AA flights out of SEA (and vice versa) if it adds SEA-KIX nonstop service,
(f) JL being able to offer connections onto its KIX-BKK/ISG/OKA/TPE flights from SEA if it adds SEA-KIX nonstop service, and
(g) AS would be able to offer 1-stop connections onto SEA-KIX from some U.S. destinations that DL doesn't serve nonstop from SEA if JL adds SEA-KIX nonstop service.

While JL already serves NRT nonstop from SEA, JL could add SEA-HND nonstop service in order to better compete against DL and NH on the SEA-TYO route. JL would also have strong point-of-sale on both the SEA and HND ends of the SEA-HND route if JL adds SEA-HND nonstop service, whereas NH has stronger point-of-sale on the HND end of its SEA-HND route and DL has stronger point-of-sale on the SEA end of its SEA-HND route.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7936
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:33 pm

gaystudpilot wrote:
kavok wrote:
It is all a giant chess match, and this move by AA basically solidifies the proverbial “your move, Delta.”

Up until the AS to OneWorld move, Delta was winning the long term battle for SEA. Yes AS still had a much larger presence and was not going away, but Delta was quickly becoming the go-to airline for businesses in Seattle because of the larger network opportunities (both intl and onward domestic connections from other DL hubs).

The AA and Oneworld move changes things. And now DL is in the weaker position for the time being. Whether they will (or even can) continue to grow market share remains to be seen. But doing so at SEA will come at a very high cost, at a time when finances aren’t great.

Delta could double down and build up a presence in LAX instead, which like JFK is a market no airline can ever dominate... but even if they do t dominate, they certainly could try and overtake AA there much like they did in JFK. Arguably at this point, growing LAX is a lower hanging fruit. I will be curious to see what Delta does, but they may wait and see how the Covid situation plays out before deciding further.


It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Delta fumbled SEA. Given its investment I can not imagine DL did not run risk scenarios and see AA/AS/oneWorld coming. There is no way SEA can support hubs for AA/AS and DL. Barring AA having to significantly shrink, DL will have to retrench, at best making SEA a focus city, and place more network emphasis on LAX.

AA should be well positioned in SEA with AS, CX and JL to be extremely successful. If AA can’t make SEA work, the whole executive team should be ousted. Was anyone at DL ousted for its SEA mess?

Agree with what kavok said.

DL didn't necessarily fumble SEA, it was doing fine, then now COVID hit.
The DL-AS thing was years ago and both had moved on and probably would've been fine until 4 months ago.

AA is playing with house money, going Lerroy Jenkins on the industry currently, and is more or less taking an aggressive "go big or go home approach" that is either going to position them for success in the post-COVID recovery or have them fail spectacularly. COVID is the biggest black swan event to hit the industry pretty much ever and outside really any typical scenarios that have ever occurred in the past.

Its a chess match, AA & AS want to double-down on SEA now. DL is going to either have to stick with it an play the long gate or cut their losses. The appetite to sustain losses and literally burn money is going to be low and they are going to have to pick their battles. DL can't sustain capacity dumping and yield trashing in SEA, LAX, and BOS at the same time.
 
BNAMealer
Posts: 779
Joined: Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:03 pm

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:54 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
gaystudpilot wrote:
kavok wrote:
It is all a giant chess match, and this move by AA basically solidifies the proverbial “your move, Delta.”

Up until the AS to OneWorld move, Delta was winning the long term battle for SEA. Yes AS still had a much larger presence and was not going away, but Delta was quickly becoming the go-to airline for businesses in Seattle because of the larger network opportunities (both intl and onward domestic connections from other DL hubs).

The AA and Oneworld move changes things. And now DL is in the weaker position for the time being. Whether they will (or even can) continue to grow market share remains to be seen. But doing so at SEA will come at a very high cost, at a time when finances aren’t great.

Delta could double down and build up a presence in LAX instead, which like JFK is a market no airline can ever dominate... but even if they do t dominate, they certainly could try and overtake AA there much like they did in JFK. Arguably at this point, growing LAX is a lower hanging fruit. I will be curious to see what Delta does, but they may wait and see how the Covid situation plays out before deciding further.


It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Delta fumbled SEA. Given its investment I can not imagine DL did not run risk scenarios and see AA/AS/oneWorld coming. There is no way SEA can support hubs for AA/AS and DL. Barring AA having to significantly shrink, DL will have to retrench, at best making SEA a focus city, and place more network emphasis on LAX.

AA should be well positioned in SEA with AS, CX and JL to be extremely successful. If AA can’t make SEA work, the whole executive team should be ousted. Was anyone at DL ousted for its SEA mess?

Agree with what kavok said.

DL didn't necessarily fumble SEA, it was doing fine, then now COVID hit.
The DL-AS thing was years ago and both had moved on and probably would've been fine until 4 months ago.

AA is playing with house money, going Lerroy Jenkins on the industry currently, and is more or less taking an aggressive "go big or go home approach" that is either going to position them for success in the post-COVID recovery or have them fail spectacularly. COVID is the biggest black swan event to hit the industry pretty much ever and outside really any typical scenarios that have ever occurred in the past.

Its a chess match, AA & AS want to double-down on SEA now. DL is going to either have to stick with it an play the long gate or cut their losses. The appetite to sustain losses and literally burn money is going to be low and they are going to have to pick their battles. DL can't sustain capacity dumping and yield trashing in SEA, LAX, and BOS at the same time.


I have to wonder if there is any value in a traditional TPAC hub like SEA for DL anymore. With most Asia flying (i.e, China) struggling and DL struggling in Asia in general, why can't DL just make do with LAX as its TPAC hub for the limited Asian flying they have? Most of their hubs already have ICN flights, which is where they are routing most traffic through anyway these days.

Let AA/AS burn money in SEA, DL should focus on LAX and BOS where it has a better position IMO.
 
SUNCTRY738
Posts: 138
Joined: Sun May 14, 2017 3:39 am

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:58 pm

enilria wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Key takeaways here are less int'l from LAX, and decreasing long-thin routes

Should be interesting to watch, especially SEA-PVG

CLT down to 3 int'l routes it looks like

http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx

I don't understand why two carriers flying SEA-PVG is a good idea, particularly when it is a double connect from most of AA's network.



I don't get adding SEA to PVG either for AA. I think AA may have really lost its way deciding to go up against DL at SEA.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 13207
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:01 am

calstanford wrote:
No more LAX-HKG. Good for Cathay!

No more LAX-HKG. Bad for consumers.



Midwestindy wrote:
Maybe someone with more knowledge of LAX can guide me here:
Would AA be able to use any of the gates that were being used for Asia & other long-haul, for additional domestic routes/frequencies? From AA pre-covid statements, it appeared that there wasn't much room to grow domestically otherwise until new gates come online

Of course they can. :tongue2:

All LAX's int'l gates at all terminals can swing for domestic use.



SurfandSnow wrote:
I suspect there will always be quite a few people paying a pretty penny to escape, say, ALB or MDT in the winter for popular vacation spots like CUN, MBJ, NAS, PUJ etc.

Sure, but then again, all of that can also be handled just as easily by PHL.



AA747123 wrote:
Detroit313 wrote:
AA and Alaska closer and closer to a merger.

It will never happen. DOJ would never approve it.

It's not up to the DOJ to "approve" it... that's the DOT's sole purview.

DOJ can determine whether it believes it to be anti-competitive, and can sue to obstruct/enjoin it. But they're not guaranteed to get that result.
That said, airlines generally won't undergo the expense and negative press of a protracted legal battle, so they'll work with the DOJ; but if we're to be correct, it's the DOT's job to approve it or not.

And in the tenure of Chao, I have no belief that "never" is an appropriate word to use in reference to the DOT, no matter how outrageous the proposal may be. :(



DFW17L wrote:
I agree. Isn’t AA, though, gate-constrained at SEA? Or do they pick up more S-gates for their international flights?

SEA's new International Arrivals Building is (still) due to be open by then, converting 8 domestic gates to international-capable, in addition to the current 12.



gaystudpilot wrote:
Delta fumbled SEA.

How exactly?
Last edited by LAX772LR on Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil

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