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boilerla
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:06 pm

ABEguy wrote:
Anyone’s guess how well this Asia from SEA strategy is going to work but here’s what we do know. SEA to PEK/PVG is about 600nm shorter than from LAX. that’s about 1.5 hours shorter and a significant cost reduction for a given flight. That makes AA much leaner and more competitive on flight to China. The opposite is true for SYD and AKL so I’m guessing those will stay in LAX. No idea about NRT/HND. I don’t really like the idea of depending on ALK for the feed but hey, no one asked me.

That only matters if there's local demand for SEA-PEK/PVG. If you're just doing a lot of connections from AK, without having the luxury of UA at SFO to control pricing on the connections, AA could end up having trash yields on a long flight. It's a good win for AK, not sure for AA. Of course all of this is conjecture--I don't see business demand returning to 100% by next summer, and if there's not enough demand for paid J travel to PVG or PEK, these flights won't make it.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:26 pm

AA has formally notified DOT its intention to return 7 weekly China Zone-1 frequencies back to the DOT vacated from LAX-PEK, and also to move 7 weekly Zone-1 frequencies from LAX to SEA to enable proposed PVG service commencing March 28, 2021.

Proposed SEA-PVG schedule

AA183 SEA-PVG 1250-1625+1
AA182 PVG-SEA 1825-1510

AA at the same time request dormancy waiver extension so allow DFW-PEK service to resume March 28, 2021 instead of previously approved waiver till October 25, 2020.

Docket DOT-OST-2020-0035
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
gaystudpilot
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:49 pm

kavok wrote:
It is all a giant chess match, and this move by AA basically solidifies the proverbial “your move, Delta.”

Up until the AS to OneWorld move, Delta was winning the long term battle for SEA. Yes AS still had a much larger presence and was not going away, but Delta was quickly becoming the go-to airline for businesses in Seattle because of the larger network opportunities (both intl and onward domestic connections from other DL hubs).

The AA and Oneworld move changes things. And now DL is in the weaker position for the time being. Whether they will (or even can) continue to grow market share remains to be seen. But doing so at SEA will come at a very high cost, at a time when finances aren’t great.

Delta could double down and build up a presence in LAX instead, which like JFK is a market no airline can ever dominate... but even if they do t dominate, they certainly could try and overtake AA there much like they did in JFK. Arguably at this point, growing LAX is a lower hanging fruit. I will be curious to see what Delta does, but they may wait and see how the Covid situation plays out before deciding further.


It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Delta fumbled SEA. Given its investment I can not imagine DL did not run risk scenarios and see AA/AS/oneWorld coming. There is no way SEA can support hubs for AA/AS and DL. Barring AA having to significantly shrink, DL will have to retrench, at best making SEA a focus city, and place more network emphasis on LAX.

AA should be well positioned in SEA with AS, CX and JL to be extremely successful. If AA can’t make SEA work, the whole executive team should be ousted. Was anyone at DL ousted for its SEA mess?
 
jplatts
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:21 pm

gaystudpilot wrote:
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Delta fumbled SEA. Given its investment I can not imagine DL did not run risk scenarios and see AA/AS/oneWorld coming. There is no way SEA can support hubs for AA/AS and DL. Barring AA having to significantly shrink, DL will have to retrench, at best making SEA a focus city, and place more network emphasis on LAX.

AA should be well positioned in SEA with AS, CX and JL to be extremely successful. If AA can’t make SEA work, the whole executive team should be ousted. Was anyone at DL ousted for its SEA mess?


One advantage that AA has over AS, DL, UA, or WN in the SEA market is that AA is the only airline to serve its CLT hub nonstop from SEA.

While DL is currently the only airline serving KIX nonstop from SEA, JL adding SEA-KIX nonstop service might be a possibility due to
(a) JL having a FF base in the Keihanshin (Kyoto/Osaka/Kobe) region to support SEA-KIX nonstop service on JL,
(b) AS having a FF base in Greater Seattle and other Pacific Northwest markets to support SEA-KIX nonstop service on JL,
(c) Business ties that exist between Greater Seattle and the Keihanshin region such as Kyoto-based Nintendo having its North American headquarters in Redmond, WA,
(d) Business ties that exist between the Keihanshin region and other cities in the contiguous U.S. such as Chicago, Cincinnati, Dallas, Indianapolis, and Newark,
(e) JL being able to connect passengers from KIX onto AS and AA flights out of SEA (and vice versa) if it adds SEA-KIX nonstop service,
(f) JL being able to offer connections onto its KIX-BKK/ISG/OKA/TPE flights from SEA if it adds SEA-KIX nonstop service, and
(g) AS would be able to offer 1-stop connections onto SEA-KIX from some U.S. destinations that DL doesn't serve nonstop from SEA if JL adds SEA-KIX nonstop service.

While JL already serves NRT nonstop from SEA, JL could add SEA-HND nonstop service in order to better compete against DL and NH on the SEA-TYO route. JL would also have strong point-of-sale on both the SEA and HND ends of the SEA-HND route if JL adds SEA-HND nonstop service, whereas NH has stronger point-of-sale on the HND end of its SEA-HND route and DL has stronger point-of-sale on the SEA end of its SEA-HND route.
 
jayunited
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:26 pm

American is following UA's lead, starting this fall AA and UA will reduce FA's staffing on their widebodies and some transcon flights. According to View from the Wing AA will reduce staffing to FAA minimum +1. AA's 77Ws - reduced to 11 FA's, 77Es/789s - reduced to 9 FA's, 788s - reduced to 8 FA's and A321Ts - reduced to 5 FA's.

Also somehow View from the Wing got a hold of an AA internal memo advising FA's to expect flat or moderate growth at bases located at BOS, SFO, and DCA. At the same time they should expect notable decreases at their PHX, LAX, and MIA bases. I think AA like UA will see a higher number of FA's commuting come October especially if bases like PHX, LAX and MIA are senior. Once all the good lines are taken I wonder if FA's at those bases will look to other bases to see if they can hold a great line. Also there is no mention of a SEA base so I'm wondering will AA's SFO based FA's staff AA's international flights out of SEA?

https://viewfromthewing.com/american-ai ... october-1/
 
Ishrion
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:30 pm

From BA744PHX in the Phoenix Aviation Thread, AA will use the 787-9 on PHX-HNL from November 19 to March 27, replacing the seasonal A330-300.

How the 787-9 will get to PHX is currently unknown. AA is flying double 787-9s on DFW-HNL, so could it operate DFW-HNL-PHX-HNL-DFW?

While it's possible, the aircraft would have to sit in HNL for around 5 hours, so it's likely the domestic 787-9 sector hasn't been loaded yet.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:33 pm

gaystudpilot wrote:
kavok wrote:
It is all a giant chess match, and this move by AA basically solidifies the proverbial “your move, Delta.”

Up until the AS to OneWorld move, Delta was winning the long term battle for SEA. Yes AS still had a much larger presence and was not going away, but Delta was quickly becoming the go-to airline for businesses in Seattle because of the larger network opportunities (both intl and onward domestic connections from other DL hubs).

The AA and Oneworld move changes things. And now DL is in the weaker position for the time being. Whether they will (or even can) continue to grow market share remains to be seen. But doing so at SEA will come at a very high cost, at a time when finances aren’t great.

Delta could double down and build up a presence in LAX instead, which like JFK is a market no airline can ever dominate... but even if they do t dominate, they certainly could try and overtake AA there much like they did in JFK. Arguably at this point, growing LAX is a lower hanging fruit. I will be curious to see what Delta does, but they may wait and see how the Covid situation plays out before deciding further.


It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Delta fumbled SEA. Given its investment I can not imagine DL did not run risk scenarios and see AA/AS/oneWorld coming. There is no way SEA can support hubs for AA/AS and DL. Barring AA having to significantly shrink, DL will have to retrench, at best making SEA a focus city, and place more network emphasis on LAX.

AA should be well positioned in SEA with AS, CX and JL to be extremely successful. If AA can’t make SEA work, the whole executive team should be ousted. Was anyone at DL ousted for its SEA mess?

Agree with what kavok said.

DL didn't necessarily fumble SEA, it was doing fine, then now COVID hit.
The DL-AS thing was years ago and both had moved on and probably would've been fine until 4 months ago.

AA is playing with house money, going Lerroy Jenkins on the industry currently, and is more or less taking an aggressive "go big or go home approach" that is either going to position them for success in the post-COVID recovery or have them fail spectacularly. COVID is the biggest black swan event to hit the industry pretty much ever and outside really any typical scenarios that have ever occurred in the past.

Its a chess match, AA & AS want to double-down on SEA now. DL is going to either have to stick with it an play the long gate or cut their losses. The appetite to sustain losses and literally burn money is going to be low and they are going to have to pick their battles. DL can't sustain capacity dumping and yield trashing in SEA, LAX, and BOS at the same time.
 
BNAMealer
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:54 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
gaystudpilot wrote:
kavok wrote:
It is all a giant chess match, and this move by AA basically solidifies the proverbial “your move, Delta.”

Up until the AS to OneWorld move, Delta was winning the long term battle for SEA. Yes AS still had a much larger presence and was not going away, but Delta was quickly becoming the go-to airline for businesses in Seattle because of the larger network opportunities (both intl and onward domestic connections from other DL hubs).

The AA and Oneworld move changes things. And now DL is in the weaker position for the time being. Whether they will (or even can) continue to grow market share remains to be seen. But doing so at SEA will come at a very high cost, at a time when finances aren’t great.

Delta could double down and build up a presence in LAX instead, which like JFK is a market no airline can ever dominate... but even if they do t dominate, they certainly could try and overtake AA there much like they did in JFK. Arguably at this point, growing LAX is a lower hanging fruit. I will be curious to see what Delta does, but they may wait and see how the Covid situation plays out before deciding further.


It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Delta fumbled SEA. Given its investment I can not imagine DL did not run risk scenarios and see AA/AS/oneWorld coming. There is no way SEA can support hubs for AA/AS and DL. Barring AA having to significantly shrink, DL will have to retrench, at best making SEA a focus city, and place more network emphasis on LAX.

AA should be well positioned in SEA with AS, CX and JL to be extremely successful. If AA can’t make SEA work, the whole executive team should be ousted. Was anyone at DL ousted for its SEA mess?

Agree with what kavok said.

DL didn't necessarily fumble SEA, it was doing fine, then now COVID hit.
The DL-AS thing was years ago and both had moved on and probably would've been fine until 4 months ago.

AA is playing with house money, going Lerroy Jenkins on the industry currently, and is more or less taking an aggressive "go big or go home approach" that is either going to position them for success in the post-COVID recovery or have them fail spectacularly. COVID is the biggest black swan event to hit the industry pretty much ever and outside really any typical scenarios that have ever occurred in the past.

Its a chess match, AA & AS want to double-down on SEA now. DL is going to either have to stick with it an play the long gate or cut their losses. The appetite to sustain losses and literally burn money is going to be low and they are going to have to pick their battles. DL can't sustain capacity dumping and yield trashing in SEA, LAX, and BOS at the same time.


I have to wonder if there is any value in a traditional TPAC hub like SEA for DL anymore. With most Asia flying (i.e, China) struggling and DL struggling in Asia in general, why can't DL just make do with LAX as its TPAC hub for the limited Asian flying they have? Most of their hubs already have ICN flights, which is where they are routing most traffic through anyway these days.

Let AA/AS burn money in SEA, DL should focus on LAX and BOS where it has a better position IMO.
 
SUNCTRY738
Posts: 138
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:58 pm

enilria wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Key takeaways here are less int'l from LAX, and decreasing long-thin routes

Should be interesting to watch, especially SEA-PVG

CLT down to 3 int'l routes it looks like

http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx

I don't understand why two carriers flying SEA-PVG is a good idea, particularly when it is a double connect from most of AA's network.



I don't get adding SEA to PVG either for AA. I think AA may have really lost its way deciding to go up against DL at SEA.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:01 am

calstanford wrote:
No more LAX-HKG. Good for Cathay!

No more LAX-HKG. Bad for consumers.



Midwestindy wrote:
Maybe someone with more knowledge of LAX can guide me here:
Would AA be able to use any of the gates that were being used for Asia & other long-haul, for additional domestic routes/frequencies? From AA pre-covid statements, it appeared that there wasn't much room to grow domestically otherwise until new gates come online

Of course they can. :tongue2:

All LAX's int'l gates at all terminals can swing for domestic use.



SurfandSnow wrote:
I suspect there will always be quite a few people paying a pretty penny to escape, say, ALB or MDT in the winter for popular vacation spots like CUN, MBJ, NAS, PUJ etc.

Sure, but then again, all of that can also be handled just as easily by PHL.



AA747123 wrote:
Detroit313 wrote:
AA and Alaska closer and closer to a merger.

It will never happen. DOJ would never approve it.

It's not up to the DOJ to "approve" it... that's the DOT's sole purview.

DOJ can determine whether it believes it to be anti-competitive, and can sue to obstruct/enjoin it. But they're not guaranteed to get that result.
That said, airlines generally won't undergo the expense and negative press of a protracted legal battle, so they'll work with the DOJ; but if we're to be correct, it's the DOT's job to approve it or not.

And in the tenure of Chao, I have no belief that "never" is an appropriate word to use in reference to the DOT, no matter how outrageous the proposal may be. :(



DFW17L wrote:
I agree. Isn’t AA, though, gate-constrained at SEA? Or do they pick up more S-gates for their international flights?

SEA's new International Arrivals Building is (still) due to be open by then, converting 8 domestic gates to international-capable, in addition to the current 12.



gaystudpilot wrote:
Delta fumbled SEA.

How exactly?
Last edited by LAX772LR on Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
onwFan
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:07 am

SUNCTRY738 wrote:
enilria wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Key takeaways here are less int'l from LAX, and decreasing long-thin routes

Should be interesting to watch, especially SEA-PVG

CLT down to 3 int'l routes it looks like

http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx

I don't understand why two carriers flying SEA-PVG is a good idea, particularly when it is a double connect from most of AA's network.



I don't get adding SEA to PVG either for AA. I think AA may have really lost its way deciding to go up against DL at SEA.

The key point here is that DL is not some behemoth at SEA. They have struggled sustaining long haul to Asia to even large markets like HKG and KIX. Except for ICN and possibly PVG, AA/AS will have a huge advantage over DL from SEA, and double the market share (and number of routes?).

As others have pointed put, AA/AS are clearly testing DL’s commitment to SEA. With there not going to be much Asia traffic in the near future, DL is certainly going to have to craft its plan for Asia. Having both LAX and SEA is certainly not the answer.
 
acavpics
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:13 am

tphuang wrote:
Again, AA is way too optimistic here. 25% lower capacity compared to 2019? Demand will be way down next year.


No. THings are going to improve next year. 2020 is not goign to last forever. When there are vaccines and cures, people WILL travel again.
 
kavok
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:24 am

BNAMealer wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
gaystudpilot wrote:

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Delta fumbled SEA. Given its investment I can not imagine DL did not run risk scenarios and see AA/AS/oneWorld coming. There is no way SEA can support hubs for AA/AS and DL. Barring AA having to significantly shrink, DL will have to retrench, at best making SEA a focus city, and place more network emphasis on LAX.

AA should be well positioned in SEA with AS, CX and JL to be extremely successful. If AA can’t make SEA work, the whole executive team should be ousted. Was anyone at DL ousted for its SEA mess?

Agree with what kavok said.

DL didn't necessarily fumble SEA, it was doing fine, then now COVID hit.
The DL-AS thing was years ago and both had moved on and probably would've been fine until 4 months ago.

AA is playing with house money, going Lerroy Jenkins on the industry currently, and is more or less taking an aggressive "go big or go home approach" that is either going to position them for success in the post-COVID recovery or have them fail spectacularly. COVID is the biggest black swan event to hit the industry pretty much ever and outside really any typical scenarios that have ever occurred in the past.

Its a chess match, AA & AS want to double-down on SEA now. DL is going to either have to stick with it an play the long gate or cut their losses. The appetite to sustain losses and literally burn money is going to be low and they are going to have to pick their battles. DL can't sustain capacity dumping and yield trashing in SEA, LAX, and BOS at the same time.


I have to wonder if there is any value in a traditional TPAC hub like SEA for DL anymore. With most Asia flying (i.e, China) struggling and DL struggling in Asia in general, why can't DL just make do with LAX as its TPAC hub for the limited Asian flying they have? Most of their hubs already have ICN flights, which is where they are routing most traffic through anyway these days.

Let AA/AS burn money in SEA, DL should focus on LAX and BOS where it has a better position IMO.


DL first has to figure out what is it’s new long term TPAC strategy. That decision will obviously be influenced both by: 1) Covid, and what the aviation demand looks like after a potential vaccine becomes available this winter, and 2) Politics/International Relations... specifically how the USA’s relationship with places like China and other Asian countries influences travel demand post-election.

I would guess DLs plans for various scenarios are being discussed, but any decision is months away until the impacts of 1 & 2 above are better understood. Thus SEA will likely remain status quo for DL for the remainder of 2020. Note that despite all of DLs build up, SEA never really eclipsed DTW as the sole dominant DL TPAC hub. (Both are about equal, and each see 5 TPAC destinations on DL metal, PVG, PKX, HND, ICN, and KIX/NGO).

A DL retreat from SEA will basically result in creating a OW fortress hub there, in a key growing market. Thus DL needs to be absolutely sure SEA holds no future if they are going to back out, because there is no going back on it should they leave.
Last edited by kavok on Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:52 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
TYWoolman
Posts: 508
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:29 am

onwFan wrote:
SUNCTRY738 wrote:
enilria wrote:
I don't understand why two carriers flying SEA-PVG is a good idea, particularly when it is a double connect from most of AA's network.



I don't get adding SEA to PVG either for AA. I think AA may have really lost its way deciding to go up against DL at SEA.

The key point here is that DL is not some behemoth at SEA. They have struggled sustaining long haul to Asia to even large markets like HKG and KIX. Except for ICN and possibly PVG, AA/AS will have a huge advantage over DL from SEA, and double the market share (and number of routes?).

As others have pointed put, AA/AS are clearly testing DL’s commitment to SEA. With there not going to be much Asia traffic in the near future, DL is certainly going to have to craft its plan for Asia. Having both LAX and SEA is certainly not the answer.


Long-term: The answer for Delta is a sustaining plan to rightsizing capacity in Seattle amid the competition and staying the course, while leveraging Detroit and Seoul into the Pacific. Another way to interpret the move: AA/AS is really testing passenger appetite for Delta service; As long as Delta delivers, it will be just fine in Seattle.
 
RemoFlyer
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:38 am

Ishrion wrote:
From BA744PHX in the Phoenix Aviation Thread, AA will use the 787-9 on PHX-HNL from November 19 to March 27, replacing the seasonal A330-300.

How the 787-9 will get to PHX is currently unknown. AA is flying double 787-9s on DFW-HNL, so could it operate DFW-HNL-PHX-HNL-DFW?

While it's possible, the aircraft would have to sit in HNL for around 5 hours, so it's likely the domestic 787-9 sector hasn't been loaded yet.


they will have 4 flts to HNL on the 789 DFW(2) ORD and PHX. that's how they will be rotated, like what they do for lhr and the 77w/772
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:55 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Maybe someone with more knowledge of LAX can guide me here:
Would AA be able to use any of the gates that were being used for Asia & other long-haul, for additional domestic routes/frequencies? From AA pre-covid statements, it appeared that there wasn't much room to grow domestically otherwise until new gates come online

Of course they can. :tongue2:

All LAX's int'l gates at all terminals can swing for domestic use.


onwFan wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Maybe someone with more knowledge of LAX can guide me here:

Would AA be able to use any of the gates that were being used for Asia & other long-haul, for additional domestic routes/frequencies? From AA pre-covid statements, it appeared that there wasn't much room to grow domestically otherwise until new gates come online

I don’t think we would necessarily see much ‘growth’ in LAX, it will be a lot of rejigging to suit the domestic network.


SurfandSnow wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Key takeaways here are less int'l from LAX, and decreasing long-thin routes


IIRC, AA had publicly stated that hubs in Los Angeles and New York City were problematic financially. Cutting the weaker international routes from LAX certainly makes sense, and I can't help but wonder if some of the more obscure domestic services are on the chopping block (if they haven't been cut already). Does AA still fly LAX-ATL/BDL/CMH/IND/MCO/MSY/OMA/SDF? Surely O&D traffic can connect via PHX, DFW and in some cases even CLT or ORD. Those connecting beyond LAX to places like Australia and Hawaii could also be routed via the likes of DFW and PHX.

alasizon wrote:
To be fair, if they did choose/need to re-open the Nest; that would provide them more NB gates on T5. T4 without all the widebodies will really be able to handle a lot more narrowbodies so if they want to go more head-to-head in the domestic market, they have the gates now.


Well there we have it, this seems like an obvious move for AA in LAX:

International has been a struggle for AA in LAX, however now it is much easier to cut knowing your competitors will likely follow suit & while also knowing that international demand will be suppressed for potentially years to come

Domestic performed much better than int'l, & this frees up space for AA to grow its domestic market share in LAX, should DL & UA decide to retreat. AS feed in LAX will give AA a boost in LAX during the rebuild of the network, potentially allowing a faster recovery for AA's LAX domestic route network than UA or DL.

Domestic networks are going to be the most important for the next couple years, this move along with the AS partnership opens up many domestic opportunities for AA (should they choose to go after them)
Last edited by Midwestindy on Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
SUNCTRY738
Posts: 138
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:55 am

DL has always played their cards right in regards to dual west coast hubs at LAX and SEA. They aren't the ones having to make massive changes in that regards--AA is. Their touted LAX TPAC hub strategy has obviously failed and now they will have to rely on another airline to try and fill seats in SEA. This is anything but a certain success in my eyes. Not to mention AA's precarious debt load and weaker financial position between the big 3 airlines.

I agree with TYWoolman, if DL holds their ground at SEA and keeps LAX at the sametime, they will be fine for now and AA will lose money at SEA. A lot of you said AA would be the TPAC champ at LAX and DL had no shot there. Seems you were a bit off.
 
tphuang
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:58 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Well there we have it, this seems like an obvious move for AA in LAX:

International has been a struggle for AA in LAX, however now it is much easier to cut knowing your competitors will likely follow suit & while also knowing that international demand will be suppressed for potentially years to come

Domestic performed much better than int'l, & this frees up space for AA to grow its domestic market share in LAX, should DL & UA decide to retreat. AS feed in LAX will give AA a boost in LAX during the rebuild of the network, potentially allowing for a faster recovery for AA's LAX domestic route network than UA or DL.

Domestic networks are going to be the most important for the next couple years, this move along with the AS partnership opens up many domestic opportunities for AA (should they choose to go after them)


LAX is one of the 3 FA bases getting a lot of cuts. AA is going to shrink big time at LAX, because it struggles out there. It's most likely going to just rely on AS for the west coast stuff.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 2331
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:03 am

onwFan wrote:
SUNCTRY738 wrote:
enilria wrote:
I don't understand why two carriers flying SEA-PVG is a good idea, particularly when it is a double connect from most of AA's network.



I don't get adding SEA to PVG either for AA. I think AA may have really lost its way deciding to go up against DL at SEA.

The key point here is that DL is not some behemoth at SEA. They have struggled sustaining long haul to Asia to even large markets like HKG and KIX. Except for ICN and possibly PVG, AA/AS will have a huge advantage over DL from SEA, and double the market share (and number of routes?).

As others have pointed put, AA/AS are clearly testing DL’s commitment to SEA. With there not going to be much Asia traffic in the near future, DL is certainly going to have to craft its plan for Asia. Having both LAX and SEA is certainly not the answer.


I think you have to consider that DL is still running SEA int'l flights and will be up to ICN, HND, PVG, AMS in July - to me this indicates the importance of SEA to DL's network. DL has huge corporate contracts out of SEA, with companies that are doing well.

If anything, AA's PVG flight will just replace Hainan for AS. AA is just making a few safe moves with guaranteed feed.
 
onwFan
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:10 am

SUNCTRY738 wrote:
DL has always played their cards right in regards to dual west coast hubs at LAX and SEA. They aren't the ones having to make massive changes in that regards--AA is. Their touted LAX TPAC hub strategy has obviously failed and now they will have to rely on another airline to try and fill seats in SEA. This is anything but a certain success in my eyes. Not to mention AA's precarious debt load and weaker financial position between the big 3 airlines.

I agree with TYWoolman, if DL holds their ground at SEA and keeps LAX at the sametime, they will be fine for now and AA will lose money at SEA. A lot of you said AA would be the TPAC champ at LAX and DL had no shot there. Seems you were a bit off.

What you say is something applicable in a pre-covid world. Not necessarily now.
 
onwFan
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:17 am

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Well there we have it, this seems like an obvious move for AA in LAX:

International has been a struggle for AA in LAX, however now it is much easier to cut knowing your competitors will likely follow suit & while also knowing that international demand will be suppressed for potentially years to come

Domestic performed much better than int'l, & this frees up space for AA to grow its domestic market share in LAX, should DL & UA decide to retreat. AS feed in LAX will give AA a boost in LAX during the rebuild of the network, potentially allowing for a faster recovery for AA's LAX domestic route network than UA or DL.

Domestic networks are going to be the most important for the next couple years, this move along with the AS partnership opens up many domestic opportunities for AA (should they choose to go after them)


LAX is one of the 3 FA bases getting a lot of cuts. AA is going to shrink big time at LAX, because it struggles out there. It's most likely going to just rely on AS for the west coast stuff.

I think that is a given - AA will not have any true West Coast hub.
 
alasizon
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:17 am

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Well there we have it, this seems like an obvious move for AA in LAX:

International has been a struggle for AA in LAX, however now it is much easier to cut knowing your competitors will likely follow suit & while also knowing that international demand will be suppressed for potentially years to come

Domestic performed much better than int'l, & this frees up space for AA to grow its domestic market share in LAX, should DL & UA decide to retreat. AS feed in LAX will give AA a boost in LAX during the rebuild of the network, potentially allowing for a faster recovery for AA's LAX domestic route network than UA or DL.

Domestic networks are going to be the most important for the next couple years, this move along with the AS partnership opens up many domestic opportunities for AA (should they choose to go after them)


LAX is one of the 3 FA bases getting a lot of cuts. AA is going to shrink big time at LAX, because it struggles out there. It's most likely going to just rely on AS for the west coast stuff.


PHX is the intra-West Coast hub anyhow, not LAX and between PHX and DFW, the West Coast is pretty well covered in terms of connections to the rest of the country.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
tphuang
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:29 am

jbs2886 wrote:
onwFan wrote:
SUNCTRY738 wrote:


I don't get adding SEA to PVG either for AA. I think AA may have really lost its way deciding to go up against DL at SEA.

The key point here is that DL is not some behemoth at SEA. They have struggled sustaining long haul to Asia to even large markets like HKG and KIX. Except for ICN and possibly PVG, AA/AS will have a huge advantage over DL from SEA, and double the market share (and number of routes?).

As others have pointed put, AA/AS are clearly testing DL’s commitment to SEA. With there not going to be much Asia traffic in the near future, DL is certainly going to have to craft its plan for Asia. Having both LAX and SEA is certainly not the answer.


I think you have to consider that DL is still running SEA int'l flights and will be up to ICN, HND, PVG, AMS in July - to me this indicates the importance of SEA to DL's network. DL has huge corporate contracts out of SEA, with companies that are doing well.

If anything, AA's PVG flight will just replace Hainan for AS. AA is just making a few safe moves with guaranteed feed.

More likely, sea pvg will be a huge bloodbath. Hard to say if it will be worse than lax pvg.

There will always be a Chinese carrier in the sea market. If not hainan, then someone else will pick it up.

As for sea, dl has indicated with it's action that sea is an integral part of it's network, even more so than lax. Aside from Asia, it covers pnw and Alaska which dl apparently does not think slc can do. Until 2022, business traffic will be way down, so delta better be prepared to lose a lot of money here.
 
jplatts
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:31 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
DL didn't necessarily fumble SEA, it was doing fine, then now COVID hit.
The DL-AS thing was years ago and both had moved on and probably would've been fine until 4 months ago.

AA is playing with house money, going Lerroy Jenkins on the industry currently, and is more or less taking an aggressive "go big or go home approach" that is either going to position them for success in the post-COVID recovery or have them fail spectacularly. COVID is the biggest black swan event to hit the industry pretty much ever and outside really any typical scenarios that have ever occurred in the past.

Its a chess match, AA & AS want to double-down on SEA now. DL is going to either have to stick with it an play the long gate or cut their losses. The appetite to sustain losses and literally burn money is going to be low and they are going to have to pick their battles. DL can't sustain capacity dumping and yield trashing in SEA, LAX, and BOS at the same time.


One advantage that DL still has over AS in the SEA market is that DL still offers 1-stop connections from SEA through other hubs such as SLC, MSP, DTW, or ATL to some destinations in the Mountain West, Midwest, Northeast, and Deep South that aren't served by AA or AS.

DL could also differentiate itself from AA and AS in the SEA market by adding nonstop service out of SEA to some additional destinations not currently served by AS such as ALB, ASE, BTM, CPR, CLE, COD, COS, DSM, EGE, EKO, GJT, GRR, BDL, IDA, JAX, LWS, SDF, MEM, ORF, PIH, RIC, TUL, and TWF.

DL also has the option of using the A220-100 on routes such as SEA-ALB/CLE/BDL/JAX/SDF/MEM/ORF/RIC that are beyond the range of regional jets, whereas AA and AS would have to use larger planes to serve these markets nonstop from SEA. In addition to DL being able to use the smaller A220-100, DL also already has brand recognition and a FF base in the ALB, CLE, BDL, JAX, SDF, MEM, ORF, and RIC markets.

While AS already serves ABQ, BUR, IAH, ONT, PHL, RNO, STL, and SAT nonstop from SEA, DL could also add SEA-ABQ/BUR/IAH/ONT/PHL/RNO/STL/SAT nonstop service in order to better compete against AS in the SEA market.
 
onwFan
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:47 am

tphuang wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
onwFan wrote:
The key point here is that DL is not some behemoth at SEA. They have struggled sustaining long haul to Asia to even large markets like HKG and KIX. Except for ICN and possibly PVG, AA/AS will have a huge advantage over DL from SEA, and double the market share (and number of routes?).

As others have pointed put, AA/AS are clearly testing DL’s commitment to SEA. With there not going to be much Asia traffic in the near future, DL is certainly going to have to craft its plan for Asia. Having both LAX and SEA is certainly not the answer.


I think you have to consider that DL is still running SEA int'l flights and will be up to ICN, HND, PVG, AMS in July - to me this indicates the importance of SEA to DL's network. DL has huge corporate contracts out of SEA, with companies that are doing well.

If anything, AA's PVG flight will just replace Hainan for AS. AA is just making a few safe moves with guaranteed feed.

More likely, sea pvg will be a huge bloodbath. Hard to say if it will be worse than lax pvg.

There will always be a Chinese carrier in the sea market. If not hainan, then someone else will pick it up.

As for sea, dl has indicated with it's action that sea is an integral part of it's network, even more so than lax. Aside from Asia, it covers pnw and Alaska which dl apparently does not think slc can do. Until 2022, business traffic will be way down, so delta better be prepared to lose a lot of money here.

That would be a lot of money. Add to that the money they will burn in BOS and MIA. Plus, when Covid struck, DL had no idea whether AA was serious about SEA or not. What happens in the future can be quite different...

I do not think SEA’s role in DL’s network has much to do with domestic market. It was dictated purely by the need for a TPAC hub. They got contracts & were basically capitalizing on the fact that AS was not able to offer an international network for their customers. With AS in oneworld and the AA expansion, they are certainly bound to lose contracts. I don’t know the numbers, but given that DL is already significantly smaller than AS, I cannot imagine SEA being profitable anytime in the near future for DL.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:57 am

jplatts wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
DL didn't necessarily fumble SEA, it was doing fine, then now COVID hit.
The DL-AS thing was years ago and both had moved on and probably would've been fine until 4 months ago.

AA is playing with house money, going Lerroy Jenkins on the industry currently, and is more or less taking an aggressive "go big or go home approach" that is either going to position them for success in the post-COVID recovery or have them fail spectacularly. COVID is the biggest black swan event to hit the industry pretty much ever and outside really any typical scenarios that have ever occurred in the past.

Its a chess match, AA & AS want to double-down on SEA now. DL is going to either have to stick with it an play the long gate or cut their losses. The appetite to sustain losses and literally burn money is going to be low and they are going to have to pick their battles. DL can't sustain capacity dumping and yield trashing in SEA, LAX, and BOS at the same time.


One advantage that DL still has over AS in the SEA market is that DL still offers 1-stop connections from SEA through other hubs such as SLC, MSP, DTW, or ATL to some destinations in the Mountain West, Midwest, Northeast, and Deep South that aren't served by AA or AS.

DL could also differentiate itself from AA and AS in the SEA market by adding nonstop service out of SEA to some additional destinations not currently served by AS such as ALB, ASE, BTM, CPR, CLE, COD, COS, DSM, EGE, EKO, GJT, GRR, BDL, IDA, JAX, LWS, SDF, MEM, ORF, PIH, RIC, TUL, and TWF.

DL also has the option of using the A220-100 on routes such as SEA-ALB/CLE/BDL/JAX/SDF/MEM/ORF/RIC that are beyond the range of regional jets, whereas AA and AS would have to use larger planes to serve these markets nonstop from SEA. In addition to DL being able to use the smaller A220-100, DL also already has brand recognition and a FF base in the ALB, CLE, BDL, JAX, SDF, MEM, ORF, and RIC markets.

While AS already serves ABQ, BUR, IAH, ONT, PHL, RNO, STL, and SAT nonstop from SEA, DL could also add SEA-ABQ/BUR/IAH/ONT/PHL/RNO/STL/SAT nonstop service in order to better compete against AS in the SEA market.


With what gates? When the new S-to-A cross-over is complete, DL might get 3 to 4 gates back. DL was pretty much maxed out on gates before COVID. AS has a lot more gates at SEA than DL.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:59 am

Some people here really do not understand the gate situation at SEA. It's not like SEA is metropolis of an airport like ORD, ATL or DEN. SEA will be packed to the gills again, eventually.
 
apodino
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:19 am

jayunited wrote:
American is following UA's lead, starting this fall AA and UA will reduce FA's staffing on their widebodies and some transcon flights. According to View from the Wing AA will reduce staffing to FAA minimum +1. AA's 77Ws - reduced to 11 FA's, 77Es/789s - reduced to 9 FA's, 788s - reduced to 8 FA's and A321Ts - reduced to 5 FA's.

Also somehow View from the Wing got a hold of an AA internal memo advising FA's to expect flat or moderate growth at bases located at BOS, SFO, and DCA. At the same time they should expect notable decreases at their PHX, LAX, and MIA bases. I think AA like UA will see a higher number of FA's commuting come October especially if bases like PHX, LAX and MIA are senior. Once all the good lines are taken I wonder if FA's at those bases will look to other bases to see if they can hold a great line. Also there is no mention of a SEA base so I'm wondering will AA's SFO based FA's staff AA's international flights out of SEA?

https://viewfromthewing.com/american-ai ... october-1/


Looks like the Flight Attendants Union is going to file a Grievance on this. Also of note STL and RDU are closing, and it looks like AA is going to downsize the Latin FA bases as well. Another report I read said that RDU and STL would be satellites of CLT and DFW respectively, but I don't buy this. (Basically, the way it works at AA is you have one Base that covers multiple Airports. For example, MIA trips can start or end not only at MIA but also PBI or FLL) I can buy CLT/RDU a little but not DFW/STL.

And its important to note that FAA minimum only applies on the widebody side, the Narrowbody fleet already operates with just the FAA minimum.
 
apodino
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:25 am

Follow up to my last post. Going forward this is how the hubs will be positioned.

JFK/LGA - pretty much what it is now. I don't expect any further cuts or big additions here, even when Terminal B fully opens in LGA.
PHL - Primary Europe gateway when CBP allows it.
CLT - Exactly what it is now, primary East Coast connecting hub with key Europe flights
MIA - Will still be the primary Latin America gateway
ORD - What it is now, a secondary East-West connecting hub and secondary Europe gateway.
DFW - Not only will it remain the largest AA hub, it will become the primary Asia hub going forward.
PHX - Exactly what it is now, strong domestic hub with some international connections
LAX- Will shift to a more domestic hub.
 
 
klm617
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:29 am

IPFreely wrote:
Kbud wrote:
American couldn't make ORD work to Asia. I would have to bet that they have much more connecting passenger traffic there compared to Alaska in Seattle.


"In business, competition is never as healthy as total domination.” - Peter Lynch.

In Chicago, American had to compete with an 800 lb gorilla for ORD-Asia.

In Seattle there is no 800 lb gorilla, only a 400 lb gorilla. And American isn't competing with the 400 lb gorilla, they've partnered with it.

Big difference.


Here is just the proof you were looking for about AA and ORD you commented on it yourself. This quote says it all "In business, competition is never as healthy as total domination.” - Peter Lynch.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:45 am

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Well there we have it, this seems like an obvious move for AA in LAX:

International has been a struggle for AA in LAX, however now it is much easier to cut knowing your competitors will likely follow suit & while also knowing that international demand will be suppressed for potentially years to come

Domestic performed much better than int'l, & this frees up space for AA to grow its domestic market share in LAX, should DL & UA decide to retreat. AS feed in LAX will give AA a boost in LAX during the rebuild of the network, potentially allowing for a faster recovery for AA's LAX domestic route network than UA or DL.

Domestic networks are going to be the most important for the next couple years, this move along with the AS partnership opens up many domestic opportunities for AA (should they choose to go after them)


LAX is one of the 3 FA bases getting a lot of cuts. AA is going to shrink big time at LAX, because it struggles out there. It's most likely going to just rely on AS for the west coast stuff.


FA bases are all shrinking or flat, even DFW is shrinking so FA base changes are hardly telling. Regardless they aren't going to shrink big time in LAX.

AA's financial weakness in LAX was Asia, that is now largely out of the picture.
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jplatts
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:50 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Its a chess match, AA & AS want to double-down on SEA now. DL is going to either have to stick with it an play the long gate or cut their losses. The appetite to sustain losses and literally burn money is going to be low and they are going to have to pick their battles. DL can't sustain capacity dumping and yield trashing in SEA, LAX, and BOS at the same time.


onwFan wrote:
That would be a lot of money. Add to that the money they will burn in BOS and MIA. Plus, when Covid struck, DL had no idea whether AA was serious about SEA or not. What happens in the future can be quite different...

I do not think SEA’s role in DL’s network has much to do with domestic market. It was dictated purely by the need for a TPAC hub. They got contracts & were basically capitalizing on the fact that AS was not able to offer an international network for their customers. With AS in oneworld and the AA expansion, they are certainly bound to lose contracts. I don’t know the numbers, but given that DL is already significantly smaller than AS, I cannot imagine SEA being profitable anytime in the near future for DL.


Unlike at SEA where AS already has nonstop service out of SEA to most of the domestic destinations that DL serves nonstop from SEA, DL clearly has an advantage over B6 at BOS due to DL having nonstop service out of BOS to some domestic destinations not currently served by B6 such as CVG, CMH, IND, MCI, MKE, and ORF. DL also already offers 1-stop connecting service from BOS through other DL hubs to many destinations that have no nonstop service out of BOS on any airline and that are not served by B6. DL is also able to capture some FF's in Greater Boston that B6 isn't due to DL offering nonstop or 1-stop connecting service from BOS to many destinations that aren't served by B6.

DL can still make some more domestic adds out of BOS that are not in competition with B6, that would be profitable once demand and fares return to normal levels, and that would be sustainable in the long term. DL also is unlikely to lose as many FF's to B6 in the BOS market due to some DL FF's in the BOS market who have to travel to destinations not served by B6.

On the other hand, DL stands to lose more FF's in the SEA market to AS and AA, not only due to AS nonstop routes out of SEA, but also due to AA SEA-CLT nonstop service, AA's plans to serve a few international destinations nonstop from SEA, JL SEA-NRT nonstop service, CX SEA-HKG nonstop service, BA SEA-LHR nonstop service, and connections available from SEA on AA, JL, CX, and BA to many other destinations that are not served nonstop from SEA.

One advantage that DL will continue to have over AA and AS in the Seattle market, even with further expansion by AA, AS, or their partners, is that DL will still continue to offer 1-stop connecting service from SEA through other hubs such as SLC, MSP, DTW, or ATL to some destinations not served by AA or AS in the Mountain West, Midwest, Northeast, and Deep South.
 
tphuang
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:58 am

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Well there we have it, this seems like an obvious move for AA in LAX:

International has been a struggle for AA in LAX, however now it is much easier to cut knowing your competitors will likely follow suit & while also knowing that international demand will be suppressed for potentially years to come

Domestic performed much better than int'l, & this frees up space for AA to grow its domestic market share in LAX, should DL & UA decide to retreat. AS feed in LAX will give AA a boost in LAX during the rebuild of the network, potentially allowing for a faster recovery for AA's LAX domestic route network than UA or DL.

Domestic networks are going to be the most important for the next couple years, this move along with the AS partnership opens up many domestic opportunities for AA (should they choose to go after them)


LAX is one of the 3 FA bases getting a lot of cuts. AA is going to shrink big time at LAX, because it struggles out there. It's most likely going to just rely on AS for the west coast stuff.


FA bases are all shrinking or flat, even DFW is shrinking so FA base changes are hardly telling. Regardless they aren't going to shrink big time in LAX.

AA's financial weakness in LAX was Asia, that is now largely out of the picture.

there were 3 bases that was mentioned as getting significant cuts and LAX was one of them.

AA struggled in far more than just Asia. All that intra-west coast stuff were huge money losers. And they struggled on competitive transcon markets.
 
MAH4546
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 3:07 am

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:

LAX is one of the 3 FA bases getting a lot of cuts. AA is going to shrink big time at LAX, because it struggles out there. It's most likely going to just rely on AS for the west coast stuff.


FA bases are all shrinking or flat, even DFW is shrinking so FA base changes are hardly telling. Regardless they aren't going to shrink big time in LAX.

AA's financial weakness in LAX was Asia, that is now largely out of the picture.

there were 3 bases that was mentioned as getting significant cuts and LAX was one of them.

AA struggled in far more than just Asia. All that intra-west coast stuff were huge money losers. And they struggled on competitive transcon markets.


You are failing to differentiate between mainline and regional and between international and domestic. Obviously when there are massive cuts to an international network, which also requires much more flight staffing, you are going to see the FA base shrink pretty significantly. Miami is also going to see large cuts less so because of cut flying but also because AA is not closing it's South America bases, and needs to balance that.

Fun fact: Most of AA's domestic bulk at LAX existed before Beijing, Hong Kong, Sydney and Auckland were ever launched. And the latter two are staying.
Far more concerning than LAX or MIA FA base shrinking is Phoenix shrinking, which is all domestic. That's either in play for massive cuts or shifting a lot to Eagle. The majority of what AA flies domestically from LAX was around in 2008-09, which is roughly when Shanghai first launched.

You're going to be very disappointed to see that AA will maintain a strong domestic network at LAX. It's always been very strong at LAX domestically irrelevant of feed to China. And the South America flying obviously was largely just local, LAXGRU/EZE are 120,000+ annual local passengers and AA had it to itself.
a.
 
Rdeggendorfer
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 3:31 am

apodino wrote:
jayunited wrote:
American is following UA's lead, starting this fall AA and UA will reduce FA's staffing on their widebodies and some transcon flights. According to View from the Wing AA will reduce staffing to FAA minimum +1. AA's 77Ws - reduced to 11 FA's, 77Es/789s - reduced to 9 FA's, 788s - reduced to 8 FA's and A321Ts - reduced to 5 FA's.

Also somehow View from the Wing got a hold of an AA internal memo advising FA's to expect flat or moderate growth at bases located at BOS, SFO, and DCA. At the same time they should expect notable decreases at their PHX, LAX, and MIA bases. I think AA like UA will see a higher number of FA's commuting come October especially if bases like PHX, LAX and MIA are senior. Once all the good lines are taken I wonder if FA's at those bases will look to other bases to see if they can hold a great line. Also there is no mention of a SEA base so I'm wondering will AA's SFO based FA's staff AA's international flights out of SEA?

https://viewfromthewing.com/american-ai ... october-1/


Looks like the Flight Attendants Union is going to file a Grievance on this. Also of note STL and RDU are closing, and it looks like AA is going to downsize the Latin FA bases as well. Another report I read said that RDU and STL would be satellites of CLT and DFW respectively, but I don't buy this. (Basically, the way it works at AA is you have one Base that covers multiple Airports. For example, MIA trips can start or end not only at MIA but also PBI or FLL) I can buy CLT/RDU a little but not DFW/STL.

And its important to note that FAA minimum only applies on the widebody side, the Narrowbody fleet already operates with just the FAA minimum.


It is accurate, you are confusing “co-terminal” with “satellite”. LAX for instance has SAN and LAS for satellites and SNA and ONT for co-terminals. BUR and LGB could be co-terminals as well. In your MIA example, you mentioned only the co-terminals for MIA. They also have ATL as a satellite with MCO to come.
 
USAirALB
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 3:46 am

I would expect routes such as CLT-CDG/FCO, MIA-MXP to come back fairly quickly once international travel largely resumes. I also wouldn't be surprised to see LAX-GRU resume as well, given that it is a relatively large local market.
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n7371f
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:10 am

In case anyone wanted to know how desperate AA is to generate cash flow, look no further than trying to add SEA-Shanghai. It's idiotic to be adding international in this day and age to begin with. Then add your debt is $40 billion, your credit rating stinks, you can't borrow more money unless it's at a punative interest rate. And you're going to try building up a INTL hub at SEA where you have no foundation, you're trusting AS to feed you. Comical. Of course the AS folks will think it's great and, sure, it is - they have no skin in the game. It also reads like AA is ready to pull back on LAX on certain routes and leave them to AS as well.
Last edited by n7371f on Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:25 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:21 am

n7371f wrote:
In case anyone wanted to know how desperate AA is to generate cash flow, look no further than trying to add SEA-Shanghai. It's idiotic to be adding international in this day and age to begin with. Then add your debt is $40 billion, your credit rating sinks, you can't borrow more money unless it's at a putative interest rate. And you're going to try building up a INTL hub at SEA where you have no foundation, you're trusting AS to feed you. Comical. Of course the AS folks will think it's great and, sure, it is - they have no skin in the game. It also reads like AA is ready to pull back on LAX on certain routes and leave them to AS as well.


I tend to agree with you. AS and DL tried and failed miserably. AA has even fewer gates than DL has at SEA. When COVID is under control (ha ha), SEA is going to be bursting at the seams again, even with the new FIS facility. SEA used to have a pair of airlines serving SEA-PVG (HU and DL). DL will be returning to that route soon. I don't think HU is coming back. I still fail to see where all these gates are going to come from.
 
rjbesikof
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:22 am

AKL surprises me a little bit. Before all of this started, they were going to move up the start date of LAX-AKL by a few weeks. Now they are not even going to be operating it come October. How did LAX-SYD perform in normal times?
 
airzona11
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:27 am

n7371f wrote:
In case anyone wanted to know how desperate AA is to generate cash flow, look no further than trying to add SEA-Shanghai. It's idiotic to be adding international in this day and age to begin with. Then add your debt is $40 billion, your credit rating sinks, you can't borrow more money unless it's at a putative interest rate. And you're going to try building up a INTL hub at SEA where you have no foundation, you're trusting AS to feed you. Comical. Of course the AS folks will think it's great and, sure, it is - they have no skin in the game. It also reads like AA is ready to pull back on LAX on certain routes and leave them to AS as well.


You just described burning cash flow not generating cash flow. AA had this planned precovid and now they are unveiling the plan. DL was/is going to be a competitor but now has to fight on more fronts. AA and AS can coordinate and should. Why provide duplicate capacity in a depressed market ?
 
onwFan
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:27 am

n7371f wrote:
In case anyone wanted to know how desperate AA is to generate cash flow, look no further than trying to add SEA-Shanghai. It's idiotic to be adding international in this day and age to begin with. Then add your debt is $40 billion, your credit rating sinks, you can't borrow more money unless it's at a putative interest rate. And you're going to try building up a INTL hub at SEA where you have no foundation, you're trusting AS to feed you. Comical. Of course the AS folks will think it's great and, sure, it is - they have no skin in the game. It also reads like AA is ready to pull back on LAX on certain routes and leave them to AS as well.

How about waiting to see how DL does at SEA post-covid? I’d be happy to be proved wrong if DL has unlimited apetite and ability to sustain losses at all of SEA, BOS and MIA as some here say.
 
alasizon
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:40 am

rjbesikof wrote:
AKL surprises me a little bit. Before all of this started, they were going to move up the start date of LAX-AKL by a few weeks. Now they are not even going to be operating it come October. How did LAX-SYD perform in normal times?


AKL probably has more to do with the fact that NZ is more or less closed to the world and will remain so for a while and resuming SYD (remember, JV with QF) gives them better access to the AU/NZ market as a whole. Just not enough demand to satisfy both AKL and SYD right now, particularly since NZ will likely continue to run the route once everything starts to open back up.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
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chunhimlai
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:46 am

It show the emergency of Vashon Airport
 
MAH4546
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:08 am

airzona11 wrote:
n7371f wrote:
In case anyone wanted to know how desperate AA is to generate cash flow, look no further than trying to add SEA-Shanghai. It's idiotic to be adding international in this day and age to begin with. Then add your debt is $40 billion, your credit rating sinks, you can't borrow more money unless it's at a putative interest rate. And you're going to try building up a INTL hub at SEA where you have no foundation, you're trusting AS to feed you. Comical. Of course the AS folks will think it's great and, sure, it is - they have no skin in the game. It also reads like AA is ready to pull back on LAX on certain routes and leave them to AS as well.


You just described burning cash flow not generating cash flow. AA had this planned precovid and now they are unveiling the plan. DL was/is going to be a competitor but now has to fight on more fronts. AA and AS can coordinate and should. Why provide duplicate capacity in a depressed market ?


AA and AS can not coordinate schedules whatsoever.
a.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:21 am

UPlog wrote:
What happens with all the investments AA is making at LAX with combining T4-5 and preferential access to TBIT gates?


Suppose the T4/5 project can be scaled back if needed either operationally or for CapEx reason.
For TBIT they can still use as needed as I am sure LAWA would uphold their end of the deal, though with reduced widebody international flying AA can probably manage with the existing 2 FIS capable widebody gates in T4 to keep things simple.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:01 am

onwFan wrote:
They have struggled sustaining long haul to Asia to even large markets like HKG and KIX.

To be fair, almost nobody stateside has been able to make KIX work longterm, except UA via the uniquely concentrated power of the SFO hub.

DL has a particularly erratic history with HKG, having attempted nonstop service there from 4 different gateways since 1995, and eventually failing at all of them.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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LAXintl
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:14 am

From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
MAH4546
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:53 am

jayunited wrote:
American is following UA's lead, starting this fall AA and UA will reduce FA's staffing on their widebodies and some transcon flights. According to View from the Wing AA will reduce staffing to FAA minimum +1. AA's 77Ws - reduced to 11 FA's, 77Es/789s - reduced to 9 FA's, 788s - reduced to 8 FA's and A321Ts - reduced to 5 FA's.

Also somehow View from the Wing got a hold of an AA internal memo advising FA's to expect flat or moderate growth at bases located at BOS, SFO, and DCA. At the same time they should expect notable decreases at their PHX, LAX, and MIA bases. I think AA like UA will see a higher number of FA's commuting come October especially if bases like PHX, LAX and MIA are senior. Once all the good lines are taken I wonder if FA's at those bases will look to other bases to see if they can hold a great line. Also there is no mention of a SEA base so I'm wondering will AA's SFO based FA's staff AA's international flights out of SEA?

https://viewfromthewing.com/american-ai ... october-1/


The PHX base cut is interesting though. LAX is explained by loss of so much long-haul (and a lot of the domestic is Eagle). At MIA, significant amount of the flying is international and they are reducing number of FAd in international flights plus they are keeping the South America bases (I think it’s Lima, Bogota, Santiago and Buenos Aires?) open and they need to balance those lines with MIA flying.

But Phoenix? Why?
a.
 
jplatts
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:37 am

LAX772LR wrote:
onwFan wrote:
They have struggled sustaining long haul to Asia to even large markets like HKG and KIX.

To be fair, almost nobody stateside has been able to make KIX work longterm, except UA via the uniquely concentrated power of the SFO hub


JL can likely make SEA-KIX nonstop service work due to SEA's geographical location, AA/AS frequent flyer bases in the U.S., JL frequent flyer base in the Keihanshin (Kyoto/Osaka/Kobe) region, significant business ties between the Keihanshin region and the contiguous U.S., O&D traffic between SEA and KIX, and significant connecting feed from AS and AA flights on the SEA end. JL adding SEA-KIX nonstop service would also make it easier for passengers to connect to Osaka from the contiguous U.S. as more U.S.-originating passengers going to Osaka would be able to avoid double connections, connecting through Tokyo, or having to clear customs and immigration in Tokyo before connecting onto TYO-OSA nonstop flights.

AA or JL can also probably make DFW-KIX nonstop service work due to AA having its main hub at DFW and the business ties that exist between the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex and the Keihanshin region, including Osaka-based Kubota having its North American headquarters in Grapevine near DFW Airport, some of Toyota's suppliers having headquarters in the Keihanshin region, and the business relationship that exists between Dallas-based DART and Osaka-based Kinki Sharyo (the manufacturer of DART Light Rail cars).

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