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MrPeanut
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:51 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
janders wrote:
Well well. AA drops marginal LAX longhauls and hopes they will do better from SEA?

Me thinks they are placing too much hope on AS and ignoring the obvious that SEA is not only a smaller pie to eat from, but it already has DL as a player. Plus SEA not exactly well connected to the AA network unlike LA is.

Be fun watching how things play out in the years to come.


Me thinks this is AA positioning themselves to acquire AS down the road, when things recover.



This cannot happen for two reasons:
1. AA’s market cap is only 43% bigger than AS even though AA has 5 times the amount of revenue

AND

2. AA has too much debt

You couldn’t fund the acquisition with equity because it would cut stockholder by more than half. You couldn’t fund it with debt because AA already has too much debt. Assuming AA could find a financial institution willing to lend it debt, it would be at card level interest rates such as what they were charged in their last debt offering.
 
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gunsontheroof
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:59 pm

chunhimlai wrote:
It show the emergency of Vashon Airport


Do you need to be reminded that 10,000 people live on Vashon Island and building an airport there would be a logistical nightmare even IF (they wouldn't) they all agreed to vacate their properties? It's a terrible, unworkable idea and the reasons why have been adequately explained. Stop shoehorning it into every thread remotely related to SEA.
Picked a hell of a week to quit sniffing glue.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:04 am

MrPeanut wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:

Lol....I told you LAX would be cut. Without TPAC, the importance of LAX drops considerably. With their TPAC experiment gone, expect less feeder flights into LAX as AA focuses on their domestic network next.


Funny, aren't you the one who said AA would cut LAX down to DFW, ORD, JFK, LAS, PHL, BOS, PHX, & MIA?

Your credibility went out the window after that.....


No that is not what I said. I specifically said LAX will resemble more of a focus city, and among other things, the remaining TPAC flights that will remain can be easily filled via local O&D and the cities specifically mentioned. These cities were mentioned because they are AA hubs or metro areas with high number of foreign visitors.


Guess you don't remember this ;)

AA already started up ABQ, SJD, SFO, Hawaii & TUS for this month

MrPeanut wrote:
The TPAC flights that remain are easily filled via code share and feed from a handful of routes that will remain non-stop (DFW, ORD, JFK, LAS, PHL, BOS, PHX, MIA). PHX is the better domestic connecting option over LAX for a myriad of reasons.


Codeshare flights can also not easily be filled by O&D & a couple nonstop routes, especially if you no longer have the dominant position in LA:
Image

tphuang wrote:
LAX was not a strong performer domestically. Those west coast stuff were hugely unprofitable. Aa is cutting back on all the weaker performing stations. That include mia lax phx and nyc. I don’t know why this is so hard to see.


You throw around "hugely unprofitable" a lot, and in this case it is not true
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tphuang
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:08 am

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
LAX was not a strong performer domestically. Those west coast stuff were hugely unprofitable. Aa is cutting back on all the weaker performing stations. That include mia lax phx and nyc. I don’t know why this is so hard to see.


You throw around "hugely unprofitable" a lot, and in this case it is not true

Name one significant route from lax to west coast that did well.
 
FSDan
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:30 am

BNAMealer wrote:
Again, why does DL need SEA anymore with US-China traffic in the toilet?


You're assuming DL's going to give up on U.S.-China traffic forever because of a temporary downturn? Obviously, demand could stay down longer term if U.S-China relations get worse, or as companies who had all their eggs in the China basket diversify to manufacture in more countries, but to assume that SEA-PKX and SEA-PVG are suddenly no longer worth flying long term seems a bit of a jump...

But sticking with your logic, can you answer why AA needs to start SEA-PVG with U.S.-China traffic in the toilet?

BNAMealer wrote:
DL barely flies any Asia routes out of SEA to begin with and they are losing a ton of money there.


SEA is above average as far as US3 hubs' Asia operations go. It's no SFO, but no one in their right mind should expect it to be. As for how much money DL is losing there, I'd love to see the numbers you're looking at.

BNAMealer wrote:
They already fly to HND/PVG out of LAX, why not just open ICN and use LAX as their TPAC hub for what they need?


DL's immunized JV partner KE already flies a ton of capacity on LAX-ICN. No need for DL to add their own metal unless KE can't supply enough capacity for the demand.

BNAMealer wrote:
Considering how much they emphasize using ICN as an international transfer hub, SEA is incredibly pointless in DL's network.


Again, you're assuming U.S.-China traffic never comes back (even though there are already signs that airlines would like to fly much more capacity than they're currently allowed to in the market). SEA is DL's main gateway to China (which is excluded from the DL-KE JV) for the Western U.S. Until DL announces that they're never serving China again, SEA has a purpose in their network.

And that's before we even start talking about any local traffic DL gets in the SEA market. It's been reported on here that they get plenty of business from Microsoft, Amazon, etc.

BNAMealer wrote:
AA/AS will have the upper advantage in SEA as they have way more scale, and despite what people say here, DON'T rule out the possibility of AA absorbing AS down the road.


For sure, the addition of PVG + BLR by AA along with AS joining OneWorld will give those two additional strength in the market. AS has always been the strongest anyway, and no one credible thought DL was going to overtake AS. But that doesn't guarantee they'll push DL out either. All indications are that DL is committed to the market.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
MrPeanut
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:40 am

Midwestindy wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Funny, aren't you the one who said AA would cut LAX down to DFW, ORD, JFK, LAS, PHL, BOS, PHX, & MIA?

Your credibility went out the window after that.....


No that is not what I said. I specifically said LAX will resemble more of a focus city, and among other things, the remaining TPAC flights that will remain can be easily filled via local O&D and the cities specifically mentioned. These cities were mentioned because they are AA hubs or metro areas with high number of foreign visitors.


Guess you don't remember this ;)

AA already started up ABQ, SJD, SFO, Hawaii & TUS for this month

MrPeanut wrote:
The TPAC flights that remain are easily filled via code share and feed from a handful of routes that will remain non-stop (DFW, ORD, JFK, LAS, PHL, BOS, PHX, MIA). PHX is the better domestic connecting option over LAX for a myriad of reasons.


The context of the entire sentence is related to which cities can help fill remaining TPAC flights. It does not state that these will be the only remaining cities that will retain N/S service from LAX.
 
MrPeanut
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:52 am

Midwestindy wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
[quote="Midwestindy"

Codeshare flights can also not easily be filled by O&D & a couple nonstop routes, especially if you no longer have the dominant position in LA:
Image


Then how do you think LAX-LHR/NRT existed before AA made LAX into a hub?? The table you have above is based on QANTAS running multiple daily flights. You reduce that down to the appropriate capacity based on the local O&D and limited connections, and it does work.....just like they made LHR and NRT work.
 
DTWLAX
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:14 am

LAX772LR wrote:



hl8208 wrote:
AA pulling out should open up gate space for DL at TBIT.

Gate space at TBIT hasn't been an issue or limitation for DL, who barely even uses TBIT; save for its Australian eastbounds which usually arrive in the pre-dawn hours, prior to T2 customs opening.




DL uses TBIT for its HND and CDG flights as well.
 
DTWLAX
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:14 am

LAX772LR wrote:



hl8208 wrote:
AA pulling out should open up gate space for DL at TBIT.

Gate space at TBIT hasn't been an issue or limitation for DL, who barely even uses TBIT; save for its Australian eastbounds which usually arrive in the pre-dawn hours, prior to T2 customs opening.




DL uses TBIT for its HND and CDG flights as well.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:59 am

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
LAX was not a strong performer domestically. Those west coast stuff were hugely unprofitable. Aa is cutting back on all the weaker performing stations. That include mia lax phx and nyc. I don’t know why this is so hard to see.


You throw around "hugely unprofitable" a lot, and in this case it is not true

Name one significant route from lax to west coast that did well.


Significant? As in SEA, SFO, or DEN (Excluding PHX since its a Hub)? None of those routes to LAX should be high performers for any airline given the competition, but regardless you or I have no idea how much AA makes or loses on a certain route (or hub for that matter) unless they explicitly say it publicly, or unless you work for them in RM, Network, or some Finance Division.

MrPeanut wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:

No that is not what I said. I specifically said LAX will resemble more of a focus city, and among other things, the remaining TPAC flights that will remain can be easily filled via local O&D and the cities specifically mentioned. These cities were mentioned because they are AA hubs or metro areas with high number of foreign visitors.


Guess you don't remember this ;)

AA already started up ABQ, SJD, SFO, Hawaii & TUS for this month

MrPeanut wrote:
The TPAC flights that remain are easily filled via code share and feed from a handful of routes that will remain non-stop (DFW, ORD, JFK, LAS, PHL, BOS, PHX, MIA). PHX is the better domestic connecting option over LAX for a myriad of reasons.


The context of the entire sentence is related to which cities can help fill remaining TPAC flights. It does not state that these will be the only remaining cities that will retain N/S service from LAX.


"A handful of routes that will remain non-stop (DFW, ORD, JFK, LAS, PHL, BOS, PHX, MIA)"

Glad you don't run AA....
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slcdeltarumd11
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:35 am

AA won't need to build a SEA following at all for international routes or anything they fly. They get the largest FF base in the market with Alaska airlines. Outside of a.net people won't even know it's AS first then connecting to AA. We forget most people don't care especially if they get the miles their thoughts will end there. Thy won't even remember three days after the flight which airlines they were on. AA will get AS network to fill flights that won't be any issue for passengers no one cares outside of us about building the brand in market , if they get the miles on AA, Alaska flyers will book no problem and not mind flying two airlines and vice versa
 
MrPeanut
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:55 am

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:


You throw around "hugely unprofitable" a lot, and in this case it is not true

Name one significant route from lax to west coast that did well.


Significant? As in SEA, SFO, or DEN (Excluding PHX since its a Hub)? None of those routes to LAX should be high performers for any airline given the competition, but regardless you or I have no idea how much AA makes or loses on a certain route (or hub for that matter) unless they explicitly say it publicly, or unless you work for them in RM, Network, or some Finance Division.

MrPeanut wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Guess you don't remember this ;)

AA already started up ABQ, SJD, SFO, Hawaii & TUS for this month



The context of the entire sentence is related to which cities can help fill remaining TPAC flights. It does not state that these will be the only remaining cities that will retain N/S service from LAX.


"A handful of routes that will remain non-stop (DFW, ORD, JFK, LAS, PHL, BOS, PHX, MIA)"

Glad you don't run AA....


lol.....try including the full context of the conversation instead of select pieces to fit your narrative. You do not seem to comprehend this.

Regardless, this still does not change the fact that AA has started to make significant changes to LAX just like I said they had to do, even though you vehemently opposed this comment. If you understood how the industry worked, it would be very clear to you. LAX will never be what it was for AA pre-covid.
 
cm642
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:25 am

MrPeanut wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
Vctony wrote:

To me that screams that PHX will be hit with the buzzsaw.

We have an idea as to where some of the LAX cuts are coming from (the reduced international flying).

PHX cuts will be severe (each flight requires fewer FAs so to cut that many FAs means a larger cut of flying).

WN is currently the largest carrier at PHX in terms of passengers and it doesn't appear that this stat is likely to change.


Yeah that's crazy. Or it can mean a lot more regional flying? It's a heavy mainline hub.

International flights are more heavily staffed, obviously, and with AA going to the FAA minimum staffing on these flights the massive cuts at MIA and LAX can be more attributed to that than proportionally large cuts in flying (plus the Miami lines are shared with the South America bases which aren't closing). But that can't explain Phoenix.


PHX has a heavy legacy US flight attendant employee base. In fact, many routes out of LAX were staffed by PHX based FA’s. This reduction was already in the works last year, but was far from completed. Considering the depth of the reduction at LAX and taking into consideration that some flights out of LAX pre-covid were still staffed by PHX based FA’s would indicate a larger right sizing hitting LAX beyond the international flight reductions.


I agree, I remember them saying last year that PHX was way overstaffed in terms of flight attendants and that they were first looking for people to voluntarily transfer to other bases then just transfer whatever was left over. I'm assuming PHX was still overstaffed and since a lot of PHX based flight attendants also staffed LAX flights they most likely don't need as many with the drawback of LAX, so my guess is for those left over instead of transferring them they'll just let them go.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:33 am

DTWLAX wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
hl8208 wrote:
AA pulling out should open up gate space for DL at TBIT.

Gate space at TBIT hasn't been an issue or limitation for DL, who barely even uses TBIT; save for its Australian eastbounds which usually arrive in the pre-dawn hours, prior to T2 customs opening.

DL uses TBIT for its HND and CDG flights as well.

I can't speak personally for HND, but on my CDG flights, we haven't.
Of course it's not to say that the airline couldn't, if that was the quickest available gate.



slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
no one cares outside of us about building the brand in market

If that were true (which it's not, by *any* stretch of the imagination)... then airlines wouldn't spend millions on building/maintaining brand awareness in any given target market, especially those where they're already the dominant carrier.

And yet, they do.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
tphuang
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:52 am

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:


You throw around "hugely unprofitable" a lot, and in this case it is not true

Name one significant route from lax to west coast that did well.


Significant? As in SEA, SFO, or DEN (Excluding PHX since its a Hub)? None of those routes to LAX should be high performers for any airline given the competition, but regardless you or I have no idea how much AA makes or loses on a certain route (or hub for that matter) unless they explicitly say it publicly, or unless you work for them in RM, Network, or some Finance Division.

As in SEA, PDX, SMF, SJC, SFO, DEN, SLC, LAS. All these are routes they get hammered on. How do you go down to 8x daily on SFO vs 11+ for all the major competitors unless you are just losing money hand over fist on it?

And if we look at transcon stuff. BOS is a huge money loser. They tried to put A321T on there to be competitive, but give up after 5 months. MCO is huge money loser. ATL obviously loses money. JFK has seen a steady decline to the point where I'm not sure it's even a system average performer anymore. RDU is getting noticeably lower yield than DL. MIA has seen steady yield erosions as mint expanded. Even DCA is getting lower yield than DL now, because they don't have a competitive product to what DL is offering.

You believe their domestic operation is doing well. I believe it's doing terribly. We will see what happens. As I said before, at most 125 flights a day at LAX until end of 2021.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:25 pm

AA posted its busiest day by a wide margin yesterday, around 35% of LYs traffic, but 9% higher than July 1.

Still operating on June schedule levels for the next few days
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onwFan
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:52 pm

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Name one significant route from lax to west coast that did well.


Significant? As in SEA, SFO, or DEN (Excluding PHX since its a Hub)? None of those routes to LAX should be high performers for any airline given the competition, but regardless you or I have no idea how much AA makes or loses on a certain route (or hub for that matter) unless they explicitly say it publicly, or unless you work for them in RM, Network, or some Finance Division.

As in SEA, PDX, SMF, SJC, SFO, DEN, SLC, LAS. All these are routes they get hammered on. How do you go down to 8x daily on SFO vs 11+ for all the major competitors unless you are just losing money hand over fist on it?

And if we look at transcon stuff. BOS is a huge money loser. They tried to put A321T on there to be competitive, but give up after 5 months. MCO is huge money loser. ATL obviously loses money. JFK has seen a steady decline to the point where I'm not sure it's even a system average performer anymore. RDU is getting noticeably lower yield than DL. MIA has seen steady yield erosions as mint expanded. Even DCA is getting lower yield than DL now, because they don't have a competitive product to what DL is offering.

You believe their domestic operation is doing well. I believe it's doing terribly. We will see what happens. As I said before, at most 125 flights a day at LAX until end of 2021.

The dynamics of traffic along and to/from the West coast, especially from LAX, SFO, PDX & SEA is about to change significantly once AS/AA west coast alliance takes full shape and AS settles into OW. With the possible exception of certain routes from SFO, AA/AS together will provide the largest capacity (that too by a large margin) on most non-stop routes both within the west coast as well as from the west coast to other major cities and transcontinental (including many of the cities you mention above). That is enough to persuade a lot of customers to switch.

Earlier, LAX was the only west coast airport which AA called a hub and they had only a marginal lead against the other US3. Now, if the rumored scale down of LAX and PHX is true, this would mean an even more crucial role for AS in their partnership. This will largely eliminate the need for routing west coast passengers through just one or two hubs, which UA and DL will still need to.

And they don’t really need any ATI or JV for that. The biggest game changer, which many have been largely ignoring will be AS joining oneworld. AA/AS fyers will have full ability to earn/burn miles on each other and mostly a common set of international partners. A lot of the decision making will be centered around this. Believe it or not, the change will be felt.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:17 pm

I know people are tired of reading about the worries of any sort of AS-another airline merger. But I hope this is not going to be a repeat of what happened to AirCal/AA, Reno Air/AA and later TWA/AA. AA consistently saying "We're committed to this hub or market"...then a couple of years down the road..."See ya!"

On a separate note, what will happen to the AS partners like SQ, FI and EK when AS goes to OneWorld? And is this OneWorld or OneWorld Connect?
 
tphuang
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:31 pm

onwFan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Significant? As in SEA, SFO, or DEN (Excluding PHX since its a Hub)? None of those routes to LAX should be high performers for any airline given the competition, but regardless you or I have no idea how much AA makes or loses on a certain route (or hub for that matter) unless they explicitly say it publicly, or unless you work for them in RM, Network, or some Finance Division.

As in SEA, PDX, SMF, SJC, SFO, DEN, SLC, LAS. All these are routes they get hammered on. How do you go down to 8x daily on SFO vs 11+ for all the major competitors unless you are just losing money hand over fist on it?

And if we look at transcon stuff. BOS is a huge money loser. They tried to put A321T on there to be competitive, but give up after 5 months. MCO is huge money loser. ATL obviously loses money. JFK has seen a steady decline to the point where I'm not sure it's even a system average performer anymore. RDU is getting noticeably lower yield than DL. MIA has seen steady yield erosions as mint expanded. Even DCA is getting lower yield than DL now, because they don't have a competitive product to what DL is offering.

You believe their domestic operation is doing well. I believe it's doing terribly. We will see what happens. As I said before, at most 125 flights a day at LAX until end of 2021.

The dynamics of traffic along and to/from the West coast, especially from LAX, SFO, PDX & SEA is about to change significantly once AS/AA west coast alliance takes full shape and AS settles into OW. With the possible exception of certain routes from SFO, AA/AS together will provide the largest capacity (that too by a large margin) on most non-stop routes both within the west coast as well as from the west coast to other major cities and transcontinental (including many of the cities you mention above). That is enough to persuade a lot of customers to switch.

Earlier, LAX was the only west coast airport which AA called a hub and they had only a marginal lead against the other US3. Now, if the rumored scale down of LAX and PHX is true, this would mean an even more crucial role for AS in their partnership. This will largely eliminate the need for routing west coast passengers through just one or two hubs, which UA and DL will still need to.

And they don’t really need any ATI or JV for that. The biggest game changer, which many have been largely ignoring will be AS joining oneworld. AA/AS fyers will have full ability to earn/burn miles on each other and mostly a common set of international partners. A lot of the decision making will be centered around this. Believe it or not, the change will be felt.


I totally agree with that premise. I'm not saying that AA will pull out of all these markets, but having AS in OW allows its ff to fly on AS for the west coast stuff. It seems like AS is pulling out of most of its LAX transcon markets. That's what I was trying to get at. The net result is that AA will just be operating fewer flights out of LAX both domestically and internationally. This is a more sustainable and profitable setup for them. They simply won't need as many gates at TBIT or 4/5.

I think AA could use a similar partnership with JetBlue over at NYC and BOS, but we will see if that happens.
 
Ishrion
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:44 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:

On a separate note, what will happen to the AS partners like SQ, FI and EK when AS goes to OneWorld? And is this OneWorld or OneWorld Connect?


Full Oneworld membership.

And nothing should really happen to those partners unless AS drops them.

Qantas partners with Emirates, China Airlines, and China Eastern.

Cathay Pacific partners with Lufthansa, Air China, Shenzhen Airlines, Vietnam Airlines, Brussels Airlines, and more.
 
NYCAAer
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:31 pm

FSDan wrote:
To summarize the long haul routes that were not mentioned in the press release (indicating that they are presumably not being discontinued, and may have already had restart/launch dates announced):

LAX-HND (presumably still 2x daily based on route award)
LAX-CHC (presumably starting W21)
DFW-DUB
DFW-LHR
DFW-MAD
DFW-CDG
DFW-AMS
DFW-FRA
DFW-NRT (I didn't miss an announcement of consolidation to HND, did I?)
DFW-HND
DFW-ICN
DFW-PVG
DFW-HKG
DFW-AKL (presumably starting W21)
ORD-LHR
ORD-FCO
ORD-ATH
MIA-LIM
MIA-EZE
MIA-MVD
MIA-LHR
MIA-BCN
CLT-DUB
CLT-MAD
PHL-KEF
PHL-SNN
PHL-EDI
PHL-LIS
PHL-BCN
PHL-VCE
PHL-PRG
PHL-ATH
JFK-LHR
JFK-FCO
BOS-LHR


PHL-PRG is toast. MIA-MVD is still being evaluated, according to a message from the APFA to the flight attendants after a meeting of union leaders with Parker, Raja, Brian Znotins, (VP of route planning), and Jill Surdek (VP of Flight Service). Znotins said that they determined which routes to fly by profitability. If a route didn’t make money in 2019, then most likely it wouldn’t make money in 2021. Which I think makes sense. For once, I agree with what management is doing to restore profitability. JFK-FCO, I’m not holding my breath, but it could change.

Nothing will be dropped from LHR, and all frequencies will be restored, as AA will rely upon BA for connectivity to secondary European cities that have been dropped from PHL.
 
usflyer msp
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:54 pm

NYCAAer wrote:
FSDan wrote:
To summarize the long haul routes that were not mentioned in the press release (indicating that they are presumably not being discontinued, and may have already had restart/launch dates announced):

LAX-HND (presumably still 2x daily based on route award)
LAX-CHC (presumably starting W21)
DFW-DUB
DFW-LHR
DFW-MAD
DFW-CDG
DFW-AMS
DFW-FRA
DFW-NRT (I didn't miss an announcement of consolidation to HND, did I?)
DFW-HND
DFW-ICN
DFW-PVG
DFW-HKG
DFW-AKL (presumably starting W21)
ORD-LHR
ORD-FCO
ORD-ATH
MIA-LIM
MIA-EZE
MIA-MVD
MIA-LHR
MIA-BCN
CLT-DUB
CLT-MAD
PHL-KEF
PHL-SNN
PHL-EDI
PHL-LIS
PHL-BCN
PHL-VCE
PHL-PRG
PHL-ATH
JFK-LHR
JFK-FCO
BOS-LHR


PHL-PRG is toast. MIA-MVD is still being evaluated, according to a message from the APFA to the flight attendants after a meeting of union leaders with Parker, Raja, Brian Znotins, (VP of route planning), and Jill Surdek (VP of Flight Service). Znotins said that they determined which routes to fly by profitability. If a route didn’t make money in 2019, then most likely it wouldn’t make money in 2021. Which I think makes sense. For once, I agree with what management is doing to restore profitability. JFK-FCO, I’m not holding my breath, but it could change.

Nothing will be dropped from LHR, and all frequencies will be restored, as AA will rely upon BA for connectivity to secondary European cities that have been dropped from PHL.


PHL-PRG is scheduled to operate. You are probably confusing it with BUD, which is being dropped.
 
MIAFLLPBIFlyer
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:32 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
I know people are tired of reading about the worries of any sort of AS-another airline merger. But I hope this is not going to be a repeat of what happened to AirCal/AA, Reno Air/AA and later TWA/AA. AA consistently saying "We're committed to this hub or market"...then a couple of years down the road..."See ya!"

On a separate note, what will happen to the AS partners like SQ, FI and EK when AS goes to OneWorld? And is this OneWorld or OneWorld Connect?


AA/Reno Air being the most interesting because it came AFTER AA abandoned SJC, then Reno Air made SJC super-useful and AA decided to go back into SJC by buying Reno Air. Then after 9/11, AA drew down SJC again.

RDU has a similar history with AA.
 
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:36 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Application for the China routes: https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0076-0039

- AA seeks dormancy on DFW-PEK from October 25, 2020 to March 28, 2021.
- AA returns the LAX-PEK slots (typo in the app: "American last operated its service on this route on February 8, 2019".
- AA hopes LAX-PVG shifts to SEA starting March 28, 2021 on the 787-9.

Westbound, AA183 will depart SEA at 12:50 and arrive in PVG at 16:25 + 1; eastbound AA182 will depart PVG at 18:25 and arrive in SEA at 15:10.


The drama we had on LAX-PEK and now AA drops it (obviously understandable...just amazing how things change).
\\

With the slot, in theory, open again does DL even care to apply for it? Although AirChina ran 3X daily on it, its worth considering that UA (the leading US carrier to PEK and China overall) never tried despite running nonstops from SFO, ORD, IAD and adding EWR via CO.
 
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:46 pm

apodino wrote:
Follow up to my last post. Going forward this is how the hubs will be positioned.

JFK/LGA - pretty much what it is now. I don't expect any further cuts or big additions here, even when Terminal B fully opens in LGA.
PHL - Primary Europe gateway when CBP allows it.
CLT - Exactly what it is now, primary East Coast connecting hub with key Europe flights
MIA - Will still be the primary Latin America gateway
ORD - What it is now, a secondary East-West connecting hub and secondary Europe gateway.
DFW - Not only will it remain the largest AA hub, it will become the primary Asia hub going forward.
PHX - Exactly what it is now, strong domestic hub with some international connections
LAX- Will shift to a more domestic hub.


AA also has a hub at DCA in addition to JFK, LGA, PHL, CLT, MIA, ORD, DFW, PHX, and LAX. AA will also likely keep nonstop service out of DCA to some non-AA hub destinations, even if AA downsizes its DCA operation, due to AA having nonstop service out of DCA to some domestic destinations not served nonstop from DCA, IAD, or BWI on other airlines.

I had also previously mentioned that most of the destinations that AA currently serves nonstop from its DCA hub already have nonstop service out of IAD or BWI on UA, WN, NK, or G4.

How will AA position its DCA hub following the COVID-19 pandemic?
 
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:12 pm

Doesn't the PHX over-staffing stem as far back as the dismantlement of the LUS LAS hub? It's my understanding that PM LUS PHX FA's did a lot of deadheading to CLT because there just wasn't the need out of PHX.
 
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:16 pm

Bingo! I'm very skeptical of AA's plan here. The US legacy (big 3) with the worst balance sheet and worst operational performance is going to try to go head to head with the US legacy with the best balance sheet and best operational performance, all while depending on a codeshare partner (and maybe future alliance member) that they'll have to deal at arm's length with... AS is a good airline with great SEA feed. However, AA and AS will not be able to coordinate pricing and schedules. AA will also have to deal with AS having other competing long haul partners out of SEA. Meanwhile, on the connecting front, they'll also have to deal with UA's SFO hub, the undisputed TPAC leader. Both DL and UA have the ability to control the pricing, scheduling, and timing of their domestic feed. AA won't be able to do that.

I don't see how this ends any differently that AA's other TPAC follies. First it was SJC with their own metal, then with a QQ codeshare (sound familiar), finally they bought QQ, dismantled the network, and skedaddled. Then it was going to be ORD. That got dismantled recently. Then it was going to be LAX. Now we're seeing that being wound down. The only thing Asia they seem to be able to make work is DFW.

AA seems to be grasping at straws here. They haven't been able to make anything else work so now they're trying to make SEA a thing during an unprecedented period of depressed international travel demand. Now we're hearing AA say they're going to focus on their "strategic hubs." We've heard that before... They squandered their position in New York, now they're doing the same thing at LAX. Vasu Raja and Doug Parker seem to be real good at grand visions (saying AA will never lose money again) and throwing shade at competitors that run circles around them (Raja's "yesterday's genius" comment), but not so good at delivering. As they saying down here in Texas goes "all hat, no cattle." Though "cattle" seems to be how AA treats it' passengers, so maybe it isn't so far off...

OA412 wrote:
gaystudpilot wrote:
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Delta fumbled SEA. Given its investment I can not imagine DL did not run risk scenarios and see AA/AS/oneWorld coming. There is no way SEA can support hubs for AA/AS and DL. Barring AA having to significantly shrink, DL will have to retrench, at best making SEA a focus city, and place more network emphasis on LAX.

AA should be well positioned in SEA with AS, CX and JL to be extremely successful. If AA can’t make SEA work, the whole executive team should be ousted. Was anyone at DL ousted for its SEA mess?

When DL ended the relationship with AS, the word from AS is that they were essentially being "blackmailed" into being DLs sole partner. From DLs perspective, it was that they couldn't control pricing on the AS legs and AS wasn't offering them enough feed because of all the partners it's trying to feed at SEA. I honestly don't see how AA isn't going to run into the exact same issue. Absent a JV or merger, AA can't control AS' pricing and can't have leverage over how many seats are allocated to AA connects vs. JL, CX, SQ, etc. connects. It's entirely possible we're about to see AS/DL 2.0 here. I think people are getting way ahead of themselves calling AAs moves in SEA a roaring success when not a single one of these routes has even launched. I'm sure DL did the risk analysis, and I'm willing to bet they were well aware that AA would partner with AS, but given their own history with AS, it was a risk they were willing to take.

onwFan wrote:
They have struggled sustaining long haul to Asia to even large markets like HKG and KIX. Except for ICN and possibly PVG, AA/AS will have a huge advantage over DL from SEA, and double the market share (and number of routes?).

As another poster noted, HKG yes, but everyone, including the Japanese carriers, has struggled to make a go of KIX. Only UA with SFO has been able to sustain long-term service. HKG is an interesting case, and people seem to completely overlook some very important facts. Not a single US airline, not AA, not DL, not UA has been able to make LAX-HKG work. Up until a few years ago when DFW-HKG was launched and when CX expanded into places like BOS and SEA, HKG had only been able to successfully maintain TPAC service to the big 4 US TPAC destinations (ORD, NYC, LAX, and SFO). HKG is obviously a very tough nut to crack. UA has succeeded there (and even they had to drop ORD) because they serve HKG from SFO and NYC. Besides, I think people overemphasize HKG. It's a single city in Asia. It's not the be all, end all of Asia service. Plenty of airlines do not serve HKG and survive just fine. DL isn't going to collapse because they don't serve HKG. But besides those two, where has DL "struggled" to maintain longhaul to Asia. The DTW routes have been flying constantly since they were launched. Same for the SEA routes sans KIX and HKG. DL has never retrenched from PVG, PEK, NRT/HND, or ICN, so I'm having a tough time understand how they're struggling.

I still think we're getting way ahead of ourselves here. See above. Let's see how the AA/AS relationship actually works out. It's entirely possible we're about to see a rehash of the AS/DL relationship.
 
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:10 pm

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... c11cd26373

"American is perceived as having given up on Los Angeles and dismantling its international hub there after deciding to end five routes. That includes all of its flights from Los Angeles to South America, and most of Asia.

But even with these reductions American will still be the largest international U.S. airline in Los Angeles for long-haul flights. And American is keeping more capacity than it’s cutting."

American will focus on its “strategic hubs,” Chief Revenue Officer Vasu Raja said. Los Angeles has only “domestic strength.”
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SESGDL
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:40 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton1/2020/07/03/despite-cuts-american-airlines-still-largest-in-los-angeles-for-international-long-haul-after-covid-19-response/#24c11cd26373

"American is perceived as having given up on Los Angeles and dismantling its international hub there after deciding to end five routes. That includes all of its flights from Los Angeles to South America, and most of Asia.

But even with these reductions American will still be the largest international U.S. airline in Los Angeles for long-haul flights. And American is keeping more capacity than it’s cutting."

American will focus on its “strategic hubs,” Chief Revenue Officer Vasu Raja said. Los Angeles has only “domestic strength.”


I can't imagine if DL were to cut all of its SEA-Asia service apart from ICN or HND or UA were to cut half of its TPAC service from SFO that people on here wouldn't be calling it a miserable failure. I fail to understand how the same isn't being said of AA's LAX "experiment." To suddenly end half of the service from a premier TPAC hub and international gateway is an abject failure. What's going on for AA at SEA is a sign of desperation, not some strategic power move. AA has failed at building its TPAC hub at LAX and now it must resort to using partners to cover its dwindling network to Asia. While COVID has accelerated this cut, LAX for AA was struggling long before the pandemic. And while AA is touting that it will still remain the largest international carrier at LAX, I'll believe it when I see CHC and AKL come back.

Jeremy
 
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:42 pm

AMALH747430 wrote:
Bingo! I'm very skeptical of AA's plan here. The US legacy (big 3) with the worst balance sheet and worst operational performance is going to try to go head to head with the US legacy with the best balance sheet and best operational performance, all while depending on a codeshare partner (and maybe future alliance member) that they'll have to deal at arm's length with... AS is a good airline with great SEA feed. However, AA and AS will not be able to coordinate pricing and schedules. AA will also have to deal with AS having other competing long haul partners out of SEA. Meanwhile, on the connecting front, they'll also have to deal with UA's SFO hub, the undisputed TPAC leader. Both DL and UA have the ability to control the pricing, scheduling, and timing of their domestic feed. AA won't be able to do that.

I don't see how this ends any differently that AA's other TPAC follies. First it was SJC with their own metal, then with a QQ codeshare (sound familiar), finally they bought QQ, dismantled the network, and skedaddled. Then it was going to be ORD. That got dismantled recently. Then it was going to be LAX. Now we're seeing that being wound down. The only thing Asia they seem to be able to make work is DFW.

AA seems to be grasping at straws here. They haven't been able to make anything else work so now they're trying to make SEA a thing during an unprecedented period of depressed international travel demand. Now we're hearing AA say they're going to focus on their "strategic hubs." We've heard that before... They squandered their position in New York, now they're doing the same thing at LAX. Vasu Raja and Doug Parker seem to be real good at grand visions (saying AA will never lose money again) and throwing shade at competitors that run circles around them (Raja's "yesterday's genius" comment), but not so good at delivering. As they saying down here in Texas goes "all hat, no cattle." Though "cattle" seems to be how AA treats it' passengers, so maybe it isn't so far off...

OA412 wrote:
gaystudpilot wrote:
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Delta fumbled SEA. Given its investment I can not imagine DL did not run risk scenarios and see AA/AS/oneWorld coming. There is no way SEA can support hubs for AA/AS and DL. Barring AA having to significantly shrink, DL will have to retrench, at best making SEA a focus city, and place more network emphasis on LAX.

AA should be well positioned in SEA with AS, CX and JL to be extremely successful. If AA can’t make SEA work, the whole executive team should be ousted. Was anyone at DL ousted for its SEA mess?

When DL ended the relationship with AS, the word from AS is that they were essentially being "blackmailed" into being DLs sole partner. From DLs perspective, it was that they couldn't control pricing on the AS legs and AS wasn't offering them enough feed because of all the partners it's trying to feed at SEA. I honestly don't see how AA isn't going to run into the exact same issue. Absent a JV or merger, AA can't control AS' pricing and can't have leverage over how many seats are allocated to AA connects vs. JL, CX, SQ, etc. connects. It's entirely possible we're about to see AS/DL 2.0 here. I think people are getting way ahead of themselves calling AAs moves in SEA a roaring success when not a single one of these routes has even launched. I'm sure DL did the risk analysis, and I'm willing to bet they were well aware that AA would partner with AS, but given their own history with AS, it was a risk they were willing to take.

onwFan wrote:
They have struggled sustaining long haul to Asia to even large markets like HKG and KIX. Except for ICN and possibly PVG, AA/AS will have a huge advantage over DL from SEA, and double the market share (and number of routes?).

As another poster noted, HKG yes, but everyone, including the Japanese carriers, has struggled to make a go of KIX. Only UA with SFO has been able to sustain long-term service. HKG is an interesting case, and people seem to completely overlook some very important facts. Not a single US airline, not AA, not DL, not UA has been able to make LAX-HKG work. Up until a few years ago when DFW-HKG was launched and when CX expanded into places like BOS and SEA, HKG had only been able to successfully maintain TPAC service to the big 4 US TPAC destinations (ORD, NYC, LAX, and SFO). HKG is obviously a very tough nut to crack. UA has succeeded there (and even they had to drop ORD) because they serve HKG from SFO and NYC. Besides, I think people overemphasize HKG. It's a single city in Asia. It's not the be all, end all of Asia service. Plenty of airlines do not serve HKG and survive just fine. DL isn't going to collapse because they don't serve HKG. But besides those two, where has DL "struggled" to maintain longhaul to Asia. The DTW routes have been flying constantly since they were launched. Same for the SEA routes sans KIX and HKG. DL has never retrenched from PVG, PEK, NRT/HND, or ICN, so I'm having a tough time understand how they're struggling.

I still think we're getting way ahead of ourselves here. See above. Let's see how the AA/AS relationship actually works out. It's entirely possible we're about to see a rehash of the AS/DL relationship.


:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:
Spot on, thanks for bringing some sense and logic to this conversation.

Jeremy
 
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 4:39 pm

So, Athens is safe from both ORD and PHL?
 
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:13 pm

jplatts wrote:

AA also has a hub at DCA in addition to JFK, LGA, PHL, CLT, MIA, ORD, DFW, PHX, and LAX. AA will also likely keep nonstop service out of DCA to some non-AA hub destinations


BOS is one of them, for sure. DCA-BOS is even flown with mainline equipment mostly A319. Another one is STL, if not mainline at least Eagle. Not sure if they still do DCA-FLL, I know they have. Five years ago I flew DCA-FLL on an A319.
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:16 pm

Detroit313 wrote:
So, Athens is safe from both ORD and PHL?


Yes, for now.
 
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:30 pm

I view AA cutting LAX longhauls not just as a sign its having difficulties in a very competitive yet huge local market, but also as glaring sign its Pacific underperformance continues.

Last year we saw AA drop ORD-Asia, now 3 of 4 Asian markets get dropped from LAX.

Assuming COVID recovery in 2021, AA in a best-case will have a significantly undersized presence in the region.

DFW-HND
DFW-HKG
DFW-ICN
DFW-NRT (will this return?)
DFW-PEK
DFW-PVG
LAX-HND
SEA-PVG

Ultimately quite minimal coverage across such a major global region and the DFW gateway focus hardly useful for large portions of U.S. travelling public.
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:39 pm

AAtakeMeAway wrote:
Doesn't the PHX over-staffing stem as far back as the dismantlement of the LUS LAS hub? It's my understanding that PM LUS PHX FA's did a lot of deadheading to CLT because there just wasn't the need out of PHX.


YES!

PHX has long been overstaffed, even in the AW days.

The company has mentioned more than once the desire to right size the base, but always seems to defer.
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:06 pm

mercure1 wrote:
I view AA cutting LAX longhauls not just as a sign its having difficulties in a very competitive yet huge local market, but also as glaring sign its Pacific underperformance continues.

Last year we saw AA drop ORD-Asia, now 3 of 4 Asian markets get dropped from LAX.

Assuming COVID recovery in 2021, AA in a best-case will have a significantly undersized presence in the region.

DFW-HND
DFW-HKG
DFW-ICN
DFW-NRT (will this return?)
DFW-PEK
DFW-PVG
LAX-HND
SEA-PVG

Ultimately quite minimal coverage across such a major global region and the DFW gateway focus hardly useful for large portions of U.S. travelling public.



The global economy is increasingly focused on Asia, but AA instead heads the other way.

Its clear they have long struggled in the region. Probably would take much time and too much investment - something AA does not have now to ever make something worthwhile out of it.

Agreed AA will be inconsequential for much of the US with DFW being hardly the ideal gateway to access Asia from.

I do wonder that AA will do when it says it will “leverage partnerships as the foundation of future international growth”?
With BA we can see combining with into T5 as a step, but what about Asia? With mere couple flights to JAL Tokyo hub, not exactly "leverage" in my book.
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:27 pm

janders wrote:
mercure1 wrote:
I view AA cutting LAX longhauls not just as a sign its having difficulties in a very competitive yet huge local market, but also as glaring sign its Pacific underperformance continues.

Last year we saw AA drop ORD-Asia, now 3 of 4 Asian markets get dropped from LAX.

Assuming COVID recovery in 2021, AA in a best-case will have a significantly undersized presence in the region.

DFW-HND
DFW-HKG
DFW-ICN
DFW-NRT (will this return?)
DFW-PEK
DFW-PVG
LAX-HND
SEA-PVG

Ultimately quite minimal coverage across such a major global region and the DFW gateway focus hardly useful for large portions of U.S. travelling public.



The global economy is increasingly focused on Asia, but AA instead heads the other way.

Its clear they have long struggled in the region. Probably would take much time and too much investment - something AA does not have now to ever make something worthwhile out of it.

Agreed AA will be inconsequential for much of the US with DFW being hardly the ideal gateway to access Asia from.

I do wonder that AA will do when it says it will “leverage partnerships as the foundation of future international growth”?
With BA we can see combining with into T5 as a step, but what about Asia? With mere couple flights to JAL Tokyo hub, not exactly "leverage" in my book.


No offense. But the global economy refocus have nothing to do with AA.

What happens RIGHT NOW is the labour intense industry move out from China and South Korea towards cheaper labour market like Vietnam, Indonesia and India. Just like 20-30 years ago the said industry move from Taiwan, Japan, Hong Kong and even Singapore to cheaper China and Thailand. Such process does not benefit US based carrier. In the end, US benefit from the cheaper products. Currently the marine traffic benefit from the large quantity of goods that airlines can not transport. Even as part of Asia is getting richer, local carrier is always the preferred carrier for the new rich touring around the America.

AA has a perfect JV partner JAL in the region. Tokyo is also a perfect getaway for US flights from Southeast Asia and North Asia. AA needs to build around Tokyo with JAL. Let DL and UA takes the risks of developing market. I'd say it is a smart move. Maybe it is a forced move. Yet, Tokyo is the best choice right now. With more slots become available in Haneda, the future prospect is much better day by day.
 
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:29 pm

janders wrote:
mercure1 wrote:
I view AA cutting LAX longhauls not just as a sign its having difficulties in a very competitive yet huge local market, but also as glaring sign its Pacific underperformance continues.

Last year we saw AA drop ORD-Asia, now 3 of 4 Asian markets get dropped from LAX.

Assuming COVID recovery in 2021, AA in a best-case will have a significantly undersized presence in the region.

DFW-HND
DFW-HKG
DFW-ICN
DFW-NRT (will this return?)
DFW-PEK
DFW-PVG
LAX-HND
SEA-PVG

Ultimately quite minimal coverage across such a major global region and the DFW gateway focus hardly useful for large portions of U.S. travelling public.



The global economy is increasingly focused on Asia, but AA instead heads the other way.

Its clear they have long struggled in the region. Probably would take much time and too much investment - something AA does not have now to ever make something worthwhile out of it.

Agreed AA will be inconsequential for much of the US with DFW being hardly the ideal gateway to access Asia from.

I do wonder that AA will do when it says it will “leverage partnerships as the foundation of future international growth”?
With BA we can see combining with into T5 as a step, but what about Asia? With mere couple flights to JAL Tokyo hub, not exactly "leverage" in my book.

A lot of route maps are going to be redrawn post-covid. As usual, AA has been the earliest to announce their route changes. We don’t even have an idea of how DL’s or UA’s TPAC network is going to look like. There is no point comparing AA’s future network with UA or DL’s current network.

As we have seen recently, Zone-1 China frequencies are now wide open for anyone to grab. This was not a situation that many foresaw. They can launch a route to Beijing and Shanghai when and if there is sufficient demand. It is just a matter of time that at least 1 or 2 HND frequencies become available from DL when they try to ask for a waiver or shift (I am very happy to be proved weong on this). Expect AA to make a play for at least some of that if there is a need to improve connectivity with JL, especially from SEA/PDX.
 
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:18 pm

No doubt AA walking away from ever more from having a meaningful presence in Asia.

They seemingly don't have a choice with the inability to fund ongoing losses.

chonetsao wrote:
AA has a perfect JV partner JAL in the region. Tokyo is also a perfect getaway for US flights from Southeast Asia and North Asia. AA needs to build around Tokyo with JAL. Let DL and UA takes the risks of developing market. I'd say it is a smart move. Maybe it is a forced move. Yet, Tokyo is the best choice right now. With more slots become available in Haneda, the future prospect is much better day by day.


Tokyo and JAL hardly perfect due lack of frequency and small footprint across the region. Also split Tokyo ops further hurts connectivity.

Tokyo, unfortunately, can't do for AA what LHR and BA can with a dense and frequent European and beyond network. Tokyo is a good O&D market no doubt, but beyond JAL connectivity is far more limited than competing regional hubs or even what UA/ANA muster.

A partner in the region with decent frequency and footprint that could truly help AA is CX, but there is no chance of a JV at the moment.
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:30 pm

janders wrote:
I do wonder that AA will do when it says it will “leverage partnerships as the foundation of future international growth”?
With BA we can see combining with into T5 as a step, but what about Asia? With mere couple flights to JAL Tokyo hub, not exactly "leverage" in my book.


Reminds me of AA cornerstone strategy that came part of the AMR bankruptcy which circled the wagons and focused on using partners also.

AA has 3 JBA's - AY/BA/IB across the Atlantic, JL partner for Asia, plus QF down under. Not exactly comprehensive global coverage and the QF one might not generate any business whatsoever until mid 2021 with Australia's border closure.
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Ishrion
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:19 am

AA's SEA-LHR has been loaded. Set to begin on March 27, 2021.

- Depart SEA 6:40 PM arrive LHR 12:10 PM the next day.
- Depart LHR 1:50 PM arrive SEA 3:50 PM the same day.

The flight's timed in between British Airways' existing 2x daily flights.
 
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:32 am

SEA-LHR now loaded, set to begin from March 27, 2021.

- Depart SEA 6:40 PM arrive LHR 12:10 PM the next day.
- Depart LHR 1:50 PM arrive SEA 3:50 PM the same day.

The flight's timed in between British Airways' existing 2x daily flights.
 
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Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Sun Jul 05, 2020 9:05 pm

The long haul schedule currently loaded for S21 is essentially the maximum schedule AA can fly with the A330-200s out of the picture. As currently loaded, I calculate that the schedule would require ~109 widebody aircraft. AA should have 32+ 788s on property (can anyone confirm the exact number that should be operational by May 2021 given continuing deliveries?), 22 789s, 47 772s, and 20 77Ws, for a total of ~121 operational frames. Utilization of 109 out of 121 frames would leave about 10% head room for spares and planned maintenance, which seems fairly typical for a U.S. legacy.

If the economy doesn't bounce back as AA currently hopes, they can always cut back further and think about parking some 772s early at little cost. But at least they're selling what they think they can feasibly operate for now.

Here's what's currently loaded for next summer (looking at May schedules, which are the latest currently available):

SEA-LHR 1x 772
SEA-PVG 1x 789 (not actually loaded yet pending gov't approval, but the schedule and aircraft was announced)
LAX-LHR 2x 77W
LAX-HND 2x 789
LAX-SYD 1x 789
PHX-LHR 1x 772
DFW-LIM 1x 788
DFW-SCL 1x 788
DFW-EZE 1x 788
DFW-GRU 1x 77W
DFW-DUB 1x 789
DFW-LHR 3x 77W + 1x 772
DFW-MAD 1x 772
DFW-CDG 1x 789
DFW-AMS 1x 789
DFW-FRA 1x 772
DFW-FCO 1x 772
DFW-HNL 2x 772
DFW-OGG 1x 772
DFW-NRT 1x 772
DFW-HND 1x 77W
DFW-ICN 1x 789
DFW-PEK 1x 788
DFW-PVG 1x 789
DFW-HKG 1x 77W
ORD-DUB 1x 788
ORD-LHR 4x 772
ORD-BCN 1x 788
ORD-CDG 1x 788
ORD-FCO 1x 788
ORD-ATH 1x 788
MIA-SCL 1x 788
MIA-EZE 1x 772 + 1x 788
MIA-MVD 1x 788
MIA-GRU 1x 77W + 1x 772
MIA-GIG 1x 788
MIA-LHR 1x 77W
MIA-MAD 1x 772
MIA-BCN 1x 772
MIA-CDG 1x 772
CLT-DUB 1x 772
CLT-LHR 2x 772
CLT-MAD 1x 772
CLT-FRA 1x 772
CLT-MUC 1x 772
RDU-LHR 1x 772
PHL-SNN 1x 788
PHL-DUB 1x 788
PHL-EDI 1x 788
PHL-MAN 1x 788
PHL-LHR 2x 772
PHL-LIS 1x 788
PHL-MAD 1x 788
PHL-BCN 1x 788
PHL-CDG 1x 788
PHL-AMS 1x 788
PHL-ZRH 1x 788
PHL-FCO 1x 788
PHL-VCE 1x 788
PHL-PRG 1x 788
PHL-ATH 1x 788
JFK-EZE 1x 772
JFK-GRU 1x 77W
JFK-LHR 2x 77W + 2x 772
JFK-MAD 1x 772
JFK-BCN 1x 772
JFK-CDG 1x 772
JFK-MXP 1x 772
JFK-FCO 1x 772
BOS-LHR 1x 772

The utilization of the 788 and 772 fleets feels a bit too high and is too low for the 789s, so there's obviously more shuffling that will happen even if AA does end up flying all these routes at the currently-planned frequencies (as we'd expect this far in advance!). Possibly DFW-Hawai'i flights or DFW-NRT moving from 772s to 789s and a handful of 788 routes being upgauged (e.g. DFW-EZE, ORD-DUB, or ORD-CDG). But in my opinion, the currently published schedule feels like a pretty solid first draft.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
OneAA
Posts: 36
Joined: Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:38 am

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:02 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Key takeaways here are less int'l from LAX, and decreasing long-thin routes

Should be interesting to watch, especially SEA-PVG

CLT down to 3 int'l routes it looks like

http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx


Wow. CLT hardly has any long haul flights left. Other than PHX, CLT has the least amount of daily long hauls....even less than LAX with the recent cuts.
 
rjbesikof
Posts: 50
Joined: Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:21 am

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:11 am

raylee67 wrote:
Curious there is no mention of CHC, Seoul, Tokyo and Osaka, and also DFW-HKG

Seems AA is going to move the trans-Pac hub to SEA too, with so many canceled LAX routes. With AS as its partner, it may have more success than DL and will provide a very strong competition. SEA cannot sustain as trans-Pac hub for both AA/AS and DL. One of them will be forced out.


Given that AA is planning to launch 3 new long hauls out of SEA (Bangalore, London, and Shanghai), could we see new domestic routes added out of SEA (on AA metal)?
 
kavok
Posts: 814
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:30 am

rjbesikof wrote:
raylee67 wrote:
Curious there is no mention of CHC, Seoul, Tokyo and Osaka, and also DFW-HKG

Seems AA is going to move the trans-Pac hub to SEA too, with so many canceled LAX routes. With AS as its partner, it may have more success than DL and will provide a very strong competition. SEA cannot sustain as trans-Pac hub for both AA/AS and DL. One of them will be forced out.


Given that AA is planning to launch 3 new long hauls out of SEA (Bangalore, London, and Shanghai), could we see new domestic routes added out of SEA (on AA metal)?


No. AA already serves SEA from all its real hubs (sans DCA). Thus any new domestic add by AA to SEA would be to a non-hub. Point being, given the large AS hub in SEA, any new route SEA-XXX would be more profitably operated by AS. So unless AA wants to compete at a disadvantage with their new friend, it is better to leave any SEA domestic destination adds to AS.

The only potential domestic adds to SEA on AA would be frequency increases to existing destinations at AA hubs... or maybe BOS or JFK, should AA ever decide to make one of those two a real hub again.
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5198
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Mon Jul 06, 2020 4:19 am

kavok wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:
raylee67 wrote:
Curious there is no mention of CHC, Seoul, Tokyo and Osaka, and also DFW-HKG

Seems AA is going to move the trans-Pac hub to SEA too, with so many canceled LAX routes. With AS as its partner, it may have more success than DL and will provide a very strong competition. SEA cannot sustain as trans-Pac hub for both AA/AS and DL. One of them will be forced out.


Given that AA is planning to launch 3 new long hauls out of SEA (Bangalore, London, and Shanghai), could we see new domestic routes added out of SEA (on AA metal)?


No. AA already serves SEA from all its real hubs (sans DCA). Thus any new domestic add by AA to SEA would be to a non-hub. Point being, given the large AS hub in SEA, any new route SEA-XXX would be more profitably operated by AS. So unless AA wants to compete at a disadvantage with their new friend, it is better to leave any SEA domestic destination adds to AS.

The only potential domestic adds to SEA on AA would be frequency increases to existing destinations at AA hubs... or maybe BOS or JFK, should AA ever decide to make one of those two a real hub again.


There's nothing that would keep AA from reinstating it, but AA discontinued SEA-JFK almost a year ago.
 
kavok
Posts: 814
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:42 am

wedgetail737 wrote:
kavok wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:

Given that AA is planning to launch 3 new long hauls out of SEA (Bangalore, London, and Shanghai), could we see new domestic routes added out of SEA (on AA metal)?


No. AA already serves SEA from all its real hubs (sans DCA). Thus any new domestic add by AA to SEA would be to a non-hub. Point being, given the large AS hub in SEA, any new route SEA-XXX would be more profitably operated by AS. So unless AA wants to compete at a disadvantage with their new friend, it is better to leave any SEA domestic destination adds to AS.

The only potential domestic adds to SEA on AA would be frequency increases to existing destinations at AA hubs... or maybe BOS or JFK, should AA ever decide to make one of those two a real hub again.


There's nothing that would keep AA from reinstating it, but AA discontinued SEA-JFK almost a year ago.


I agree, and that is basically my point. If AA ever decides to make a renewed push at BOS or JFK, they might add BOS/JFK-SEA on AA metal. Any other “new” domestic location add from SEA would be better operated by AS.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 780
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

AA releases June Load Factor, announces New Cuts

Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:56 pm

From NASDAQ an hour ago:

June load factor was 63%, up from 45% in May, 4.2 million passengers. Last June, they carried around 19 million
Will reduce Summer 2021 International Capacity by 25%, cutting three services from CLT and Philly
Closing 5 Intl routes from LAX permanently, including Hong Kong.
Will cut service to some leisure markets that are expected to see a drop in demand.

(No word on revenue yet, but AS Group reports revenue down 80% for June.)

No change fees extended to July 31.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/american ... 01685.html
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6121
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: AA releases June Load Factor, announces New Cuts

Mon Jul 06, 2020 3:41 pm

AA cut a LOT of DFW-Latin America.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!

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