There aren't actually that many flights moving to LGW, yes all of LGW short haul with a lot of destinations still cancelled.
Lest we forget the 20+ A320series frames that are coming off lease that will be returned to lessors.
Think about frames. it's frames that directly use space not destinations. if you think how much they're chopping off, there's space. WW said BA is not getting back to its 2019 size till AT LEAST 2024
Where you say he "20+ A320series frames that are coming off lease that will be returned to lessors", are you referring to the Willie Walsh statement at the IAG Investors briefing in April?
At that briefing WW said:
"Our analysis of the likely evolution of demand through 2020 is that we would not require all of our aircraft, that we will temporarily ground, to come back into service, so we're now evaluating how many of those that will be grounded will be permanently grounded."
WW said that the thirty-one B747-400s operated by British Airways and the sixteen A340-600s flying for Iberia are all fully depreciated and will be the first to leave the fleet, and that "a couple" of A330s operated by Aer Lingus could also be permanently retired.
The group could also retire around 20 narrowbody aircraft. Walsh did not specify from which carrier they would come.
"I would also point out that we have a significant number of narrowbody aircraft coming off lease as we go through 2020, into 2021, over 40 narrowbodies come off lease in 2021. So there's a lot of flexibility in the fleet," Walsh added.
"At this stage, we are looking at delaying CAPEX... We are having a very good dialogue with the OEMs, Boeing and Airbus, as you would expect, and that has been very constructive, so I'm pleased in relation to that, so we do have flexibility in relation to our contracts but also in the discussions that we're having with them - we're expecting additional flexibility."
Since that statement, have IAG and / or BA said that it would be BA that will return 20 A320 series aircraft to lessors?
If so, isn't it likely to be those acquired for operations from Gatwick?
Hasn’t been officially announced. This is coming from insiders.
At the IAG Second Quarter results presentation (31st July), under "right sizing the business for the future" for BA amongst other things it says:
• 4 A380s to be temporarily grounded
• 6 B777s to be temporarily grounded
• 747 fleet exited through early retirements
• 18 narrow body aircraft to be temporarily grounded
• 13 Airbus narrow bodies to be retired early
• A318 fleet exited
The 6 B777s to be temporarily grounded may be LHR or LGW based, or a mixture of the two.
The 18 narrow body aircraft to be temporarily grounded may be LHR and / or LGW based Airbuses, and / or LCY based Embraers.
If BA means what it says about not restarting Gatwick shorthaul services, the 10 LGW based leased A320s (G-GATx) and the 10 LGW based leased A319s (G-DBCx) may be vulnerable. None of these are containerised, which may mean they are unlikely to transfer to LHR (although over the past year some of the ex-bmi A319s have operated from LHR).
The 13 Airbus narrow bodies to be retired early may be LHR or LGW based, or a mixture. Nine LHR based A319s had pre-covid retirement dates running from SEP ’20 to OCT ’22 (from Flyertalk) and these may be included in the “13 Airbus narrow bodies” to be retired early.
The pre-covid plan put the 747 fleet at 25 at year end.
The presentation did not mention the retirement of the last two B777 ‘A’s.
Given the uncertainty, unsurprisingly, the presentation does not say anything about when the temporary groundings will come to an end.
There have been ‘post-Covid’ new aircraft deliveries.
One A350 was delivered in May. Three more are or were due later this year.
Two B787-10 were delivered in June. Two more are or were due later this year.
Two B777-300 are due later this year, with two more early next year.
One A320 was delivered in March.
One A321 was delivered in March, and another in June.
So, a number of the retirements are offset by new deliveries.
For the IAG group overall, the IAG presentation states “deliveries of 68 new aircraft due in 2020 to 2022 deferred.”
A number of posters appear to be suggesting that the reduction in BA flying at Heathrow will create enough space for BA’s oneworld partners to remain in Terminal 5 permanently. With that in mind, I’m curious to know how much smaller the BA Heathrow based fleet will be after the covid reductions.
For what it is worth, my guess is:
The Heathrow based widebody fleet will be around 25 aircraft smaller. The A380 and any LHR based 777 groundings will be offset by new deliveries. The reduction is the 25 747s having gone. Pre-covid around 5 of the 747s operated from T3. At any one time 5 or so 747s would have been on maintenance.
The Heathrow based narrow-body fleet will remain more or less the size it was pre-covid. Bear in mind that a number of shorthaul routes that were operated from T3 and a number of LGW shorthaul routes (eg JER) now operate from Heathrow T5.
So, as the BA schedule ramps up, at T5 there will be something like 15 fewer daily arrivals and departures than there were pre-covid.
Is 15 turnrounds at T5 enough to enable all the oneworld carriers to operate from T5 permanently?
Ever since childhood, when I lived within sight of London Airport, I have seldom seen a plane go by and not wished I was on it.”
With apologies to Paul Theroux - ‘The Great Railway Bazaar’