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tphuang
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:18 pm

On the topic of demand out of EWR, I don't think I've ever seen anything remotely like this.
A week out to MCO, NK is $18 on every flight, F9 is at $20 and UA/B6 are at $26 almost every flight. And that pricing goes forward as far I can see.
To FLL on Thursday this week, NK is advertising $18, UA at 41 and B6 at 56. Next week, I'm seeing $18 from NK and $26 for UA/B6 everywhere.
To TPA a week from now, NK and F9 are at $18. UA/B6 are at $26.
To RSW a week from now, NK shows $14 and UA/B6 are at $18
To CLE a week from now, NK/UA are showing mostly $15
To ATL a week from now, NK/F9 at $18, UA at $26 and DL at $49

As a counterpoint on a route without NK, PBI shows $189 from both UA/B6. BOS shows $129 from both UA/B6. SDQ shows over $350 from UA/B6 on remaining flights.

I don't see how these Florida pricing can be remotely sustainable.

I'm not sure if UA is seeing 84% decline out of EWR in booking number or revenue. If it's the former, the revenue has to be down even more due to the ULCC pressure.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:24 pm

The internaional flying is riding the cargo wave, not because of passenger demand. Some countries like Australia are closed entirely, Israel only allows residents, and many others have quarantines in place.

Though the cargo gravy train will come to end sooner or later. We've already seen softening with Transpac rates down 30%.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
Ishrion
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United Adds ORD-TLV

Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:29 pm

United will add nonstop passenger service between Chicago and Tel Aviv this September.

Awesome to see a new long-haul route during these times. Sounds like they're taking advantage of EL AL never starting the route?

https://www.reuters.com/article/health- ... SFWN2ED0II
 
Scarebus34
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Re: United Adds ORD-TLV

Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:35 pm

They’ll also resume LAX-SYD and ORD-HKG
 
kiowa
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Re: United Adds ORD-TLV

Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:36 pm

Outstanding! long awaited.
 
MAH4546
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Re: United Adds ORD-TLV

Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:38 pm

Article has no context though. The local market isn't big, they don't care that LY cancelled the relaunch, but it could be they see a gap for needing to give TLV more connectivity to the States, and Chicago fills that, possibly temporarily.
a.
 
Scarebus34
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Re: United Adds ORD-TLV

Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:40 pm

In addition to the new service to TLV out of ORD, we are adding more flights between TLV and EWR, which will increase from daily to 10 weekly flights in August. In October, subject to government approval, we will resume our IAD-TLV service, while our SFO-TLV three days a week nonstop service resumes July 8.
 
jayunited
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:55 pm

AA94 wrote:
I was on the same call as jayunited, and the way I interpreted it is that cargo capacity is the financial justification for these routes, and the addition of pax service is just gravy. Passenger demand is still heavily down and doesn't justify the addition of new service.


The resumption of 1x weekly ORD-HKG passenger service really threw me for a loop. UA operates daily cargo flights on this route I don't understand why we need to operate 1x weekly passengers flights. And to be honest I don't see passenger service sticking around on this route once cargo rates drop. Before COVID hit EWR-HKG was in trouble and had been reduced to 3x weekly.

As far as ORD-TLV, UA has had this flight in the works for some time, going back to early last year if the rumors are to be believed. Prior to coronavirus and according to rumor IAD-TLV was suppose to go daily this year and ORD-TLV was to launch 3x weekly. Quite frankly once COVID hit I had given up hope on ORD-TLV ever being launch, I was quite surprised to hear on the call today that UA would move forward with launching ORD-TLV service. I know from a cargo perspective UA has been hauling a lot of cargo to and from TLV but still I was quite surprised to hear ORD-TLV passenger service is launching.

In my opinion it seems like UA has a solid strategy going forward for all of our hubs except LAX. I think AA's decision at LAX might have caught UA off guard and right now UA is not sure what to do at LAX, so we are just going to stick with what we were already doing.
Last edited by jayunited on Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
FSDan
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:03 am

jayunited wrote:
Before COVID hit EWR-HKG was in trouble and had been reduced to 3x weekly.


I thought EWR-HKG was still planned to be a daily 777-200ER this summer before COVID hit?
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
panam330
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:08 am

FSDan wrote:
jayunited wrote:
Before COVID hit EWR-HKG was in trouble and had been reduced to 3x weekly.


I thought EWR-HKG was still planned to be a daily 777-200ER this summer before COVID hit?

It was reduced after the protests in HKG tanked demand. COVID only killed off the rest of it.
 
ericm2031
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:44 am

FSDan wrote:
jayunited wrote:
Also in the fall UA will increase EWR-TLV frequency to 10x weekly and UA plans to launch passenger service ORD-TLV 3x weekly service. UA's pre-COVID SFO/IAD-TLV flights were not brought up, so I'm not sure when service will resume on those routes.


That's very interesting. I suppose the ORD-TLV service, like ORD-HKG, probably has something to do with the cargo component. Otherwise, it seems odd for UA to go out on a bit of a limb and fly a new route like that before bringing back a route like SFO-TLV that was by all indications a very strong performer pre-COVID. Alternatively, I suppose UA could have heard back from a Chicago area corporate client that's still doing a lot of travel (maybe Abbott Laboratories or something?) that they are willing to support a direct service to Israel. Either way, interesting development.


I agree. Same thing with the LAX-SAL/GUA adds that got buried in press releases and didn't get much attention. These have been cargo routes and are adding passengers next month.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:44 am

codc10 wrote:
Thinking about AA's LAX changes today, can you imagine if United announced something similar? There would be a complete meltdown!

atrude777 wrote:
Awesome news for us at United!

Is 3rd of August the date the schedule goes into effect?

I am in Shares, and using 3AUG and it's still showing the old schedule...

Alex


Probably will be filed this weekend with the usual schedule update.

toga998 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
If UA wants to be moderately aggressive they can really put up a fight in LA now that AA is pulling down a lot.

After stripping the 787 from LAX it will be interesting to see how UA reacts internationally to AA's downsizing. Kirby is in no way interested in burning cash, more now than ever, so LAX might not be the apple of his eye for now.



I certainly don't think UA will add any LAX longhaul for now, and its LAX-PVG was driven primarily by corporate contract (Disney, IIRC), so that has a chance of staying. AA appears to be committed to the remaining LAX longhaul markets, which compete with UAL (TYO, SYD, LHR).


The remaining AA intercontinental routes from LAX (TYO, SYD, LHR, and seasonally to AKL) remain as they are JV / Hub to Hub Routes. AA has been flying LAX-LHR since the TWA route acquisition in 1991. SYD is QF JV, as is TYO with JL. AKL is also a QF JV route. I don't see UA adding anything at LAX on the international front. LHR, SYD, NRT will likely remain. MEL may end up consolidating at SFO and flown with greater frequency if resumed. PVG is corporate traffic yes, and if AA exits and moves the LAX to PVG route to SEA successfully, or just exists PVG entirely, that's one less competitor in what was a crowded field, so UA will potentially remain.
 
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UPlog
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:15 am

Clearly cargo driven. Australia might not open will sometime in 2021 for foreign visitors, while its unknown when Israel will allow non residents in.
I fly your boxes
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 2:08 am

I think the biggest takeaway from this is LAX-SYD returning in September. Hope remains for the hub.
 
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AVENSAB727
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 2:40 am

According to the schedule, IAH-SYD returns on 23 October.
Always look on the bright side of Life!
 
jayunited
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 2:53 am

Cointrin330 wrote:
The remaining AA intercontinental routes from LAX (TYO, SYD, LHR, and seasonally to AKL) remain as they are JV / Hub to Hub Routes. AA has been flying LAX-LHR since the TWA route acquisition in 1991. SYD is QF JV, as is TYO with JL. AKL is also a QF JV route. I don't see UA adding anything at LAX on the international front. LHR, SYD, NRT will likely remain. MEL may end up consolidating at SFO and flown with greater frequency if resumed. PVG is corporate traffic yes, and if AA exits and moves the LAX to PVG route to SEA successfully, or just exists PVG entirely, that's one less competitor in what was a crowded field, so UA will potentially remain.



In this weeks OAG report UA is showing LAX-PVG returning in October although the flight looks to be weekly instead of daily which is to be expected seeing that corporate traffic is down.

I think by summer 2021 UA's long haul schedule from LAX should include SYD, LHR, PVG, NRT, HND, and perhaps MEL. The big unanswered question at this time is will UA move our MEL flight to SFO and operate it daily out of SFO.
 
CriticalPoint
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:25 am

AVENSAB727 wrote:
According to the schedule, IAH-SYD returns on 23 October.


United’s entire schedule is for sale. They adjust the schedule 6 weeks out. IAH - SYD will be one of the last routes to return.
 
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mercure1
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:35 am

Keep in mind Australia likely will remain closed for foreign visitors until mid 2021 based on latest information so these schedules won’t be carrying much if anything in the passenger cabin.
mercure f-wtcc
 
rjbesikof
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:57 am

jayunited wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
The remaining AA intercontinental routes from LAX (TYO, SYD, LHR, and seasonally to AKL) remain as they are JV / Hub to Hub Routes. AA has been flying LAX-LHR since the TWA route acquisition in 1991. SYD is QF JV, as is TYO with JL. AKL is also a QF JV route. I don't see UA adding anything at LAX on the international front. LHR, SYD, NRT will likely remain. MEL may end up consolidating at SFO and flown with greater frequency if resumed. PVG is corporate traffic yes, and if AA exits and moves the LAX to PVG route to SEA successfully, or just exists PVG entirely, that's one less competitor in what was a crowded field, so UA will potentially remain.



In this weeks OAG report UA is showing LAX-PVG returning in October although the flight looks to be weekly instead of daily which is to be expected seeing that corporate traffic is down.

I think by summer 2021 UA's long haul schedule from LAX should include SYD, LHR, PVG, NRT, HND, and perhaps MEL. The big unanswered question at this time is will UA move our MEL flight to SFO and operate it daily out of SFO.


That's their full long haul schedule prior to the shutdown. Which of the United LAX long-haul intl routes were doing well and which were not?
 
Cointrin330
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:29 am

jayunited wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
The remaining AA intercontinental routes from LAX (TYO, SYD, LHR, and seasonally to AKL) remain as they are JV / Hub to Hub Routes. AA has been flying LAX-LHR since the TWA route acquisition in 1991. SYD is QF JV, as is TYO with JL. AKL is also a QF JV route. I don't see UA adding anything at LAX on the international front. LHR, SYD, NRT will likely remain. MEL may end up consolidating at SFO and flown with greater frequency if resumed. PVG is corporate traffic yes, and if AA exits and moves the LAX to PVG route to SEA successfully, or just exists PVG entirely, that's one less competitor in what was a crowded field, so UA will potentially remain.



In this weeks OAG report UA is showing LAX-PVG returning in October although the flight looks to be weekly instead of daily which is to be expected seeing that corporate traffic is down.

I think by summer 2021 UA's long haul schedule from LAX should include SYD, LHR, PVG, NRT, HND, and perhaps MEL. The big unanswered question at this time is will UA move our MEL flight to SFO and operate it daily out of SFO.


MEL is an interesting one. If UA consolidates the Melbourne service to SFO, they will compete directly with QF, which they do already on SYD, although not right now, as QF is not flying overseas. At LAX, if and when MEL resumes, it will be about the same in terms of competitive dynamic, since Virgin Australia is in reorganization and off the market so perhaps a split operation by UA between LAX and SFO to MEL will remain in place. Not sure about HND. Did UA get a slot for it?
 
tphuang
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:30 pm

I would be very surprised if UA's pre-COVID LAX LH international schedule comes back in tact. I remember Kirby said that they closed the widebody bases because he doesn't see LH flying out of there anytime soon. Or something to that affect. It shouldn't have really surprised anyone that AA would cut back on LAX, so I'm surprised that UA management was caught off guard by that. Keep in mind with AS partnership, OW carriers would still be the largest force at LAX. By next summer, UA would be much smaller vs pre-COVID and international demand will still be very low. I can't see NRT or MEL coming back at all. I think it would be crazy to bring PVG back. Given AS's expected cuts at SFO, UA's best bet is to bring back its SFO hub to full capacity first. Duking it out at LAX seems to be very unwise.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 2:22 pm

AVENSAB727 wrote:
According to the schedule, IAH-SYD returns on 23 October.


Anything past September is pretty well useless in the schedule.

Id be surprised if IAH-SYD returns until 2019 levels return.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
kiowa
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United plans Chicago to Tel Aviv

Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:54 pm

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/unite ... ber-634144

There was another thread on this but it seems to have been deleted. I think this is great news but I am not sure what a "direct charter route" is. Is it for sale to the general public?
 
Ishrion
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Re: United plans Chicago to Tel Aviv

Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:04 pm

kiowa wrote:
There was another thread on this but it seems to have been deleted.


It was consolidated into the United Fleet/Network thread.
 
jayunited
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:12 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
MEL is an interesting one. If UA consolidates the Melbourne service to SFO, they will compete directly with QF, which they do already on SYD, although not right now, as QF is not flying overseas. At LAX, if and when MEL resumes, it will be about the same in terms of competitive dynamic, since Virgin Australia is in reorganization and off the market so perhaps a split operation by UA between LAX and SFO to MEL will remain in place. Not sure about HND. Did UA get a slot for it?



UA was awarded EWR, IAD, ORD and LAX back in 2019. The plan was LAX and EWR would serve both NRT and HND, while ORD and IAD would shift over to HND service only. As far as I know that is still the plan I just haven't heard when UA intends to launch EWR, LAX, and IAD - HND service. Of course I'm not expecting any of those announcements to come any time soon but at the same time I do know UA is not walking away from HND or Tokyo in general.

tphuang wrote:
I would be very surprised if UA's pre-COVID LAX LH international schedule comes back in tact. I remember Kirby said that they closed the widebody bases because he doesn't see LH flying out of there anytime soon. Or something to that affect. It shouldn't have really surprised anyone that AA would cut back on LAX, so I'm surprised that UA management was caught off guard by that. Keep in mind with AS partnership, OW carriers would still be the largest force at LAX. By next summer, UA would be much smaller vs pre-COVID and international demand will still be very low. I can't see NRT or MEL coming back at all. I think it would be crazy to bring PVG back. Given AS's expected cuts at SFO, UA's best bet is to bring back its SFO hub to full capacity first. Duking it out at LAX seems to be very unwise.


The thing people keep getting wrong about UA at LAX is UA transitioned LAX into an O&D hub some years back. With the exception of LAX-MEL most of our international and domestic flights were filled with O&D passengers very few connectors. LAX-Tokyo is a huge O&D market UA is not walking away from this market and UA is not giving up a HND slot. LAX-PVG is set to resume in October although service is less than daily. I expect LAX-LHR will probably be back up and flying in time for IATA spring 2021 provided UA can get a dormancy extension. And even if we are denied an extension LHR slots are so valuable I don't see UA giving walking away from that slot. We know know LAX-SYD is coming back this fall at 3x weekly (AA isn't resuming service until spring 2021). LAX-SYD is an interesting route because this route clearly suffered when UA launched IAH-SYD. IAH-SYD O&D market is minuscule compared to LAX-SYD so UA pushed a ton of connections from the Atlantic to the Rockies through IAH. But it wasn't all bad news, yields out of IAH were much better than they were out of LAX where at one point roundtrip coach tickets cost less than $700 dollars. Whereas through IAH even on a connecting flight ticket prices were over $1100 dollars in coach. If UA has decided to bring back one of its weakest performers (LAX-SYD) then NRT, PVG, and LHR all of which were much stronger performers will be back in time. The difference is those routes depended more heavily on corporate O&D travel while SYD and MEL catered to more leisure travelers. LAX-MEL was probably around 65% connectors 35% O&D which isn't great but we were competing against QF and VA. When UA launched SFO-MEL we still pushed most of the connecting traffic through LAX especially during the busy season(December-February) when we were running LAX-MEL daily and SFO-MEL 3x weekly. It is my understanding yields were much higher out of SFO. In fact before COVID SFO-MEL was slated to resume in late October of this year although now that probably isn't going to happen. I think the earliest we will see UA return to MEL will be October 2021 and I'm not convinced LAX-MEL will come back I think UA may move the route to SFO and make it daily year round.

People have taken the base closure to mean UA is totally walking away from long haul flights out of LAX and that simply isn't true. Lastly people really have to stop comparing AA to UA that was another issue made clear on the call yesterday stop comparing UA to AA and instead try to understand that these are two completely different airlines with completely different networks. Even UA employees (myself included) continue to make that mistake and we have to stop and learn to look at each airline separately. While UA may not be looking to capitalize on AA's slight reduction at LAX it doesn't mean UA is throwing in the towel on international long haul service from LAX either. In my opinion it does seem like UA was caught off guard by AA's moves at LAX and it does seem like UA has a solid plan for every hub expect LAX, one thing that was made clear is LAX remains a UA hub and an important part in our network.
 
codc10
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:32 pm

Wasn't the LAX787 domicile closure put on (temporary?) hold? Or am I thinking about ORD?
 
kiowa
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Re: United plans Chicago to Tel Aviv

Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:33 pm

Sounds like it was buried. It deserves it's own thread as much as American changing terminals in LHR. Any idea if we will be able to book tickets on it?
 
Ishrion
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Re: United plans Chicago to Tel Aviv

Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:41 pm

kiowa wrote:
Sounds like it was buried. It deserves it's own thread as much as American changing terminals in LHR. Any idea if we will be able to book tickets on it?


Agreed. Quite notable given it’s a new long-haul route during COVID.

And yes, it should be available for booking some time soon.
 
onwFan
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:43 pm

jayunited wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
MEL is an interesting one. If UA consolidates the Melbourne service to SFO, they will compete directly with QF, which they do already on SYD, although not right now, as QF is not flying overseas. At LAX, if and when MEL resumes, it will be about the same in terms of competitive dynamic, since Virgin Australia is in reorganization and off the market so perhaps a split operation by UA between LAX and SFO to MEL will remain in place. Not sure about HND. Did UA get a slot for it?



UA was awarded EWR, IAD, ORD and LAX back in 2019. The plan was LAX and EWR would serve both NRT and HND, while ORD and IAD would shift over to HND service only. As far as I know that is still the plan I just haven't heard when UA intends to launch EWR, LAX, and IAD - HND service. Of course I'm not expecting any of those announcements to come any time soon but at the same time I do know UA is not walking away from HND or Tokyo in general.

tphuang wrote:
I would be very surprised if UA's pre-COVID LAX LH international schedule comes back in tact. I remember Kirby said that they closed the widebody bases because he doesn't see LH flying out of there anytime soon. Or something to that affect. It shouldn't have really surprised anyone that AA would cut back on LAX, so I'm surprised that UA management was caught off guard by that. Keep in mind with AS partnership, OW carriers would still be the largest force at LAX. By next summer, UA would be much smaller vs pre-COVID and international demand will still be very low. I can't see NRT or MEL coming back at all. I think it would be crazy to bring PVG back. Given AS's expected cuts at SFO, UA's best bet is to bring back its SFO hub to full capacity first. Duking it out at LAX seems to be very unwise.


The thing people keep getting wrong about UA at LAX is UA transitioned LAX into an O&D hub some years back. With the exception of LAX-MEL most of our international and domestic flights were filled with O&D passengers very few connectors. LAX-Tokyo is a huge O&D market UA is not walking away from this market and UA is not giving up a HND slot. LAX-PVG is set to resume in October although service is less than daily. I expect LAX-LHR will probably be back up and flying in time for IATA spring 2021 provided UA can get a dormancy extension. And even if we are denied an extension LHR slots are so valuable I don't see UA giving walking away from that slot. We know know LAX-SYD is coming back this fall at 3x weekly (AA isn't resuming service until spring 2021). LAX-SYD is an interesting route because this route clearly suffered when UA launched IAH-SYD. IAH-SYD O&D market is minuscule compared to LAX-SYD so UA pushed a ton of connections from the Atlantic to the Rockies through IAH. But it wasn't all bad news, yields out of IAH were much better than they were out of LAX where at one point roundtrip coach tickets cost less than $700 dollars. Whereas through IAH even on a connecting flight ticket prices were over $1100 dollars in coach. If UA has decided to bring back one of its weakest performers (LAX-SYD) then NRT, PVG, and LHR all of which were much stronger performers will be back in time. The difference is those routes depended more heavily on corporate O&D travel while SYD and MEL catered to more leisure travelers. LAX-MEL was probably around 65% connectors 35% O&D which isn't great but we were competing against QF and VA. When UA launched SFO-MEL we still pushed most of the connecting traffic through LAX especially during the busy season(December-February) when we were running LAX-MEL daily and SFO-MEL 3x weekly. It is my understanding yields were much higher out of SFO. In fact before COVID SFO-MEL was slated to resume in late October of this year although now that probably isn't going to happen. I think the earliest we will see UA return to MEL will be October 2021 and I'm not convinced LAX-MEL will come back I think UA may move the route to SFO and make it daily year round.

People have taken the base closure to mean UA is totally walking away from long haul flights out of LAX and that simply isn't true. Lastly people really have to stop comparing AA to UA that was another issue made clear on the call yesterday stop comparing UA to AA and instead try to understand that these are two completely different airlines with completely different networks. Even UA employees (myself included) continue to make that mistake and we have to stop and learn to look at each airline separately. While UA may not be looking to capitalize on AA's slight reduction at LAX it doesn't mean UA is throwing in the towel on international long haul service from LAX either. In my opinion it does seem like UA was caught off guard by AA's moves at LAX and it does seem like UA has a solid plan for every hub expect LAX, one thing that was made clear is LAX remains a UA hub and an important part in our network.

I tend to agree with this. I have no doubt that UA will fly LAX-LHR/HND and a combination of SYD/MEL. I am only doubtful about one thing: Is there going to be sufficient demand to be flying LAX/EWR-NRT on top of LAX/EWR-HND, when NH already served JFK/LAX-NRT on its metal? As much as UA felt it could add capacity at that time, I doubt the current conditions actually make sense for that; especially when all the carriers have to try hard to even use all their HND slots. TYO-USA is going to be a bloodbath.
 
MAH4546
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Re: United plans Chicago to Tel Aviv

Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:58 pm

Not a charter but this is being launched primarily for cargo demand. UA will offer passenger tickets though. Same with LAXSYD early relaunch and ORDHKG. Passenger demand isn’t great but they flights can be profitable as cargo services.
a.
 
behramjee
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Re: United plans Chicago to Tel Aviv

Tue Jul 07, 2020 5:22 pm

This is a good P2P market with 101,000 pax flying it round trip in 2019 paying US$ 600 one way with YQ included. Plus they will get feed for all over USA via the mega ORD hub. P2P market demand in 2019 grew by +11% versus 2018 too though obviously in current scenario that wont be the case.

Article says 3 weekly nonstop flights using a B789.
 
CriticalPoint
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:00 pm

codc10 wrote:
Wasn't the LAX787 domicile closure put on (temporary?) hold? Or am I thinking about ORD?


Yes LAX was kept open for Cargo.....with the resumption of SYD I suspect it will stay open......however that will through a massive wrench in crew planning a recent displacement bids. They may close it then rebid it open. It’s really the only way they can do it without causing problems.

ORD HKG swing on the 777 is in the same boat.....the situation is SO dynamic
Last edited by CriticalPoint on Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1154
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:00 pm

United pulled their August schedule and will only operate 35% capacity. The biggest cuts come from EWR.
 
AA94
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:37 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
United pulled their August schedule and will only operate 35% capacity. The biggest cuts come from EWR.


This was also telegraphed on the call yesterday. When the previous August schedule was built, we were seeing building demand -- slowly, but building nonetheless. The latest wave of COVID spikes combined with the NY/NJ/CT quarantine have caused demand to plateau a bit, so we're walking back some of those adds. Would rather conserve the cash than fly around empty airplanes.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1154
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:45 pm

AA94 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
United pulled their August schedule and will only operate 35% capacity. The biggest cuts come from EWR.


This was also telegraphed on the call yesterday. When the previous August schedule was built, we were seeing building demand -- slowly, but building nonetheless. The latest wave of COVID spikes combined with the NY/NJ/CT quarantine have caused demand to plateau a bit, so we're walking back some of those adds. Would rather conserve the cash than fly around empty airplanes.


It’s also interesting UA is planning at staying at 35% through the end of 2020... It is not going to be good if AA and DL are running 50%+ and UA is stuck at 35. I’m suspecting this will change.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:50 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
AA94 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
United pulled their August schedule and will only operate 35% capacity. The biggest cuts come from EWR.


This was also telegraphed on the call yesterday. When the previous August schedule was built, we were seeing building demand -- slowly, but building nonetheless. The latest wave of COVID spikes combined with the NY/NJ/CT quarantine have caused demand to plateau a bit, so we're walking back some of those adds. Would rather conserve the cash than fly around empty airplanes.


It’s also interesting UA is planning at staying at 35% through the end of 2020... It is not going to be good if AA and DL are running 50%+ and UA is stuck at 35. I’m suspecting this will change.


DL/AA are likely going to decrease after July/early August.

I know Ed said back in May/early June that they would likely not add any capacity after August, and if they did it would likely be from removing their middle seat restriction.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
tphuang
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 10:02 pm

I would be very surprised if AA/DL don't cut back August further at this point. Not just AA/DL, but all the other carriers too. B6 has to be adjusting its schedule with NY/NJ to Florida in the dumpsters. NK/F9 has to be doing less flying in August with same problem. Maybe WN will be the only one willing to fly empty planes around.

Of course, I would say that UA is uniquely hurt by reduced demand due to its reliance on coastal hubs and international travel. So people should be mindful of that when looking at their operating capacity.
 
EssentialBusDC
Posts: 111
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:25 am

CriticalPoint wrote:
codc10 wrote:
Wasn't the LAX787 domicile closure put on (temporary?) hold? Or am I thinking about ORD?


Yes LAX was kept open for Cargo.....with the resumption of SYD I suspect it will stay open......however that will through a massive wrench in crew planning a recent displacement bids. They may close it then rebid it open. It’s really the only way they can do it without causing problems.

ORD HKG swing on the 777 is in the same boat.....the situation is SO dynamic


Even if the close it, then reopen it, all those original LAX 787 pilots displaced from the closing have grandfather rights for 120 days from the effective date of the closing (first effective date was June 30th). So really no point in closing then to reopen. Just keep it open, and if staffing needs to be higher then it is currently for the cargo flying, allow however many additional pilots are needed with grandfather rights who were displaced back in (if they want).

ORD is slightly different as there is no other 777 flying planned. ORD HKG is not a FRMS route so it could be flown as a W by a different base. LAX-SYD can not since its an FRMS route.

But yes everything is changing so quickly who knows what things will be like in 4 months.
 
Ishrion
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:27 am

United's flights bound for Sydney will be capped at 50 passengers:

https://twitter.com/BrianSumers/status/ ... 8922534913
 
ericm2031
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:13 am

Ishrion wrote:
United's flights bound for Sydney will be capped at 50 passengers:

https://twitter.com/BrianSumers/status/ ... 8922534913


Only until 7/16, and none of the flights are booked over 50 between now and then.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:37 am

United 8K filing today gives insight to booking trends. Heading wrong way. NYC in particular took a hit with the 14-day arrival quarantine.

Image
https://ibb.co/R7rgvj5][img]https://i.ibb.co/b7w6Wbf/UAL1.png

Image
https://ibb.co/Pj8gn7T][img]https://i.ibb.co/fF7H5h8/UAL2.png
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
Judge1310
Posts: 409
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:45 am

LAXintl wrote:
United 8K filing today gives insight to booking trends. Heading wrong way. NYC in particular took a hit with the 14-day arrival quarantine.

Image
https://ibb.co/R7rgvj5][img]https://i.ibb.co/b7w6Wbf/UAL1.png

Image
https://ibb.co/Pj8gn7T][img]https://i.ibb.co/fF7H5h8/UAL2.png


They *literally* said in the call to not share information externally, yet here you are, posting actual charts from presentation...
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:51 am

Judge1310 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
United 8K filing today gives insight to booking trends. Heading wrong way. NYC in particular took a hit with the 14-day arrival quarantine.

Image
https://ibb.co/R7rgvj5][img]https://i.ibb.co/b7w6Wbf/UAL1.png

Image
https://ibb.co/Pj8gn7T][img]https://i.ibb.co/fF7H5h8/UAL2.png


They *literally* said in the call to not share information externally, yet here you are, posting actual charts from presentation...


This info was all over twitter before so someone posting it in this small forum is nothing.
 
Ishrion
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:52 am

Judge1310 wrote:

They *literally* said in the call to not share information externally, yet here you are, posting actual charts from presentation...


Well... it's kinda public now?

https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/12 ... 1584290817

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/ed ... 9d1_8k.htm

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... ex99-1.htm
 
ordbosewr
Posts: 612
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:52 am

Judge1310 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
United 8K filing today gives insight to booking trends. Heading wrong way. NYC in particular took a hit with the 14-day arrival quarantine.

Image
https://ibb.co/R7rgvj5][img]https://i.ibb.co/b7w6Wbf/UAL1.png

Image
https://ibb.co/Pj8gn7T][img]https://i.ibb.co/fF7H5h8/UAL2.png


They *literally* said in the call to not share information externally, yet here you are, posting actual charts from presentation...


He is posting content that was shared with the SEC, so it is public info. Edit the first post to BOLD the point he made.

All I did was go to United investor relations and looked up the 8K from today and there are those 2 charts, plus a couple more he did not post.
 
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UPlog
Posts: 564
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:54 am

Judge1310 wrote:
They *literally* said in the call to not share information externally, yet here you are, posting actual charts from presentation...


You realize its all available in a SEC filing which is very much public information. :old:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... -index.htm
I fly your boxes
 
dmstorm22
Posts: 613
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:56 am

Judge1310 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
United 8K filing today gives insight to booking trends. Heading wrong way. NYC in particular took a hit with the 14-day arrival quarantine.

Image
https://ibb.co/R7rgvj5][img]https://i.ibb.co/b7w6Wbf/UAL1.png

Image
https://ibb.co/Pj8gn7T][img]https://i.ibb.co/fF7H5h8/UAL2.png


They *literally* said in the call to not share information externally, yet here you are, posting actual charts from presentation...


I'm no insider and can't speak to any call BUT.....

I can literally go to United Investor Relations this second and pull up the 8K filing with this exact chart
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8051
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:05 am

LAXintl wrote:
United 8K filing today gives insight to booking trends. Heading wrong way. NYC in particular took a hit with the 14-day arrival quarantine.

Image
https://ibb.co/R7rgvj5][img]https://i.ibb.co/b7w6Wbf/UAL1.png

Image
https://ibb.co/Pj8gn7T][img]https://i.ibb.co/fF7H5h8/UAL2.png

Revenues down a lot more than domestic passenger counts. This is a very difficult fare environment. IIRC, Delta leads off industry earnings reports 7/14.
 
ericm2031
Posts: 1398
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 8:46 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:04 am

Demand being down is one thing, but fares are starting to drop to historically low levels...$25 fares on 3 hour flights. I haven't seen UA drop quite that low, but not far off. I've seen AA and B6 doing it on multiple city pairs though with that stage length.
 
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cosyr
Posts: 1467
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 3:39 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
AA94 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
United pulled their August schedule and will only operate 35% capacity. The biggest cuts come from EWR.


This was also telegraphed on the call yesterday. When the previous August schedule was built, we were seeing building demand -- slowly, but building nonetheless. The latest wave of COVID spikes combined with the NY/NJ/CT quarantine have caused demand to plateau a bit, so we're walking back some of those adds. Would rather conserve the cash than fly around empty airplanes.


It’s also interesting UA is planning at staying at 35% through the end of 2020... It is not going to be good if AA and DL are running 50%+ and UA is stuck at 35. I’m suspecting this will change.

UA was hit hard early in this crisis, because of their larger Int'l market share, and EWR because of NYC's epidemic center, but AA and DL will be effected more in the coming months by those centers shifting South. DL in ATL, and even moreso AA in DFW, MIA and PHX may see some serious demand drops. Yes, UA will be effected in IAH, but having been more conservative all along, probably won't shift things as much.

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