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Scotron12
Topic Author
Posts: 496
Joined: Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:13 pm

LH to take maximum of 80 new aircraft thru 2023

Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:54 am

Lufthansa will halve the intake of new planes thru end of 2023 and cut jobs.

Altho they do not specify models, right now they have on order (Cirium):

61xA320neo
35xA321neo
27×A359
20×B779
20×B789

LX have 15xA320neos, 8xA321neos and 1xA220.

Be interesting to see whch are deferred. Makes no mention of cancelling any.

https://www.flightglobal.com/strategy/l ... 71.article
 
Blerg
Posts: 4086
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: LH to take maximum of 80 new aircraft thru 2023

Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:05 am

Will be interesting to see if they retire some older planes (mostly A320s) as those neos keep on arriving.
 
Flying-Tiger
Posts: 4049
Joined: Mon Aug 23, 1999 5:35 am

Re: LH to take maximum of 80 new aircraft thru 2023

Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:07 am

I would be very careful to believe any fleet number circulated, released, mentioned or whatever by any airline, regardless if it is Lufthansa, Delta, China Eastern, Ryanair or else.

A lot of this is communication towards the public, OEMs and staff, giving the message "look, we´re doing things and need you to be flexibile".

Yes, this figure is based on a certain traffic flow plan, and yes, that´s the figure mentioned. Though I´m pretty sure that the actual number of new planes being taken delivery of will aligned on a constant basis.

For now everything what is deferrable will be defered, certainly with the attempt to have flexibility in an earlier or even later delivery, depending on traffic development.

My take: we´ll see the 789 and 779 being delayed as much as possbile, simply because both are not yet in the fleet and the costs for adding the type can still (mostly) be pushed into future.

A359 will see some deferrals, but not too many.

A220 - that single one will be delivered to complete matters.

A320/321: more deferals at Lufthansa than at Swiss
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A343/346, A359, A380,AT4,AT7,B712, B732/3/4/5/7/8/9,B742/4,B752/3, B762/763,B772/77W,CR2/7/9/K,ER3/4,E70/75/90/95, F50/70/100,M11,L15,SF3,S20, AR8/1, 142/143,... 330.860 miles and counting.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8099
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: LH to take maximum of 80 new aircraft thru 2023

Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:42 am

Flying-Tiger wrote:
I would be very careful to believe any fleet number circulated, released, mentioned or whatever by any airline, regardless if it is Lufthansa, Delta, China Eastern, Ryanair or else.

A lot of this is communication towards the public, OEMs and staff, giving the message "look, we´re doing things and need you to be flexibile".

Yes, this figure is based on a certain traffic flow plan, and yes, that´s the figure mentioned. Though I´m pretty sure that the actual number of new planes being taken delivery of will aligned on a constant basis.

For now everything what is deferrable will be defered, certainly with the attempt to have flexibility in an earlier or even later delivery, depending on traffic development.


You're too cynical. Yes, forcecasts of demand can change with resulting changes in fleet plan, but capital spending is material information subject to SEC disclosure rules. U.S. carriers - and shares of foreign carriers traded on U.S. exchanges - can't deliberately misinform.
 
Flying-Tiger
Posts: 4049
Joined: Mon Aug 23, 1999 5:35 am

Re: LH to take maximum of 80 new aircraft thru 2023

Wed Jul 08, 2020 11:10 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
You're too cynical. Yes, forcecasts of demand can change with resulting changes in fleet plan, but capital spending is material information subject to SEC disclosure rules. U.S. carriers - and shares of foreign carriers traded on U.S. exchanges - can't deliberately misinform.


No disagreement here, and I don´t think that there is any deliberate misinformation. I´m just of the opinion that it is far too early to give any traffic and thus fleet recovery plan a validity longer than a couple of months at the moment. Airlines might be happy to have an idea where they are likely to stand end of this year, reading into the 2023 crystal ball...
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A343/346, A359, A380,AT4,AT7,B712, B732/3/4/5/7/8/9,B742/4,B752/3, B762/763,B772/77W,CR2/7/9/K,ER3/4,E70/75/90/95, F50/70/100,M11,L15,SF3,S20, AR8/1, 142/143,... 330.860 miles and counting.
 
jghealey
Posts: 242
Joined: Fri May 11, 2018 5:46 pm

Re: LH to take maximum of 80 new aircraft thru 2023

Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:33 pm

I think they will defer as many widebodies as possible given that the group fleet is not very old and the widebodies on order are larger than what is currently in the fleet. 787s and 777s will definitely be pushed out as far as possible.

Narrowbodies are more interesting. At Swiss I don't think we'll see any deferrals, or if we do they won't be pushed too far back, as all but 5 of their A320s can be retired imminently as they're very old and would have been retired anyway (HB-IJ...), then as the neos come in, they can build up capacity gradually. As for LH I'd guess they are in the same situation with about 30 of their a320s so we will probably see more deferrals there but perhaps not to the scale of longhaul.
 
chonetsao
Posts: 656
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2005 3:55 pm

Re: LH to take maximum of 80 new aircraft thru 2023

Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:50 pm

Would not the B779 arrive from or after 2023? So B779 will definitely be the prime suspect of deferred delivery.

Then LH made a pledge to buy European aircraft. So A359 will be coming. I would guess out of 27 models, maybe up to 20 will get delivered before 2023.

The part get interesting is the A320/321 series and B789. My guess is that to achieve maximum flexibility of operational requirement, lots of the A320 from the 61 unfilled order will be deferred. Maybe they will receive 15-20. However, A321 will be welcomed (in case of an earlier than expected recovery by 2022). Out of 35 orders, they may receive anywhere between 20-30.

So I also agree with posters above that B789 will get deferred as long as possible. But I will guess maybe through discussion and debates, 5-8 aircrafts will be received across a longer period of time. My bet is A321 and A359 will get the most delivery and A320 will get some but not many.
 
na
Posts: 9769
Joined: Sun Dec 12, 1999 3:52 am

Re: LH to take maximum of 80 new aircraft thru 2023

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:15 pm

chonetsao wrote:
Would not the B779 arrive from or after 2023? So B779 will definitely be the prime suspect of deferred delivery.

First 779 deliveries were postponed to mid-2021 before Corona. The inofficial LH fleetpage now mentions 2022.

I expect some 779-orders to be switched to 777Fs and most of the 15 remaining 779 deliveries to be deferred into the future by one to three years. LH doesn´t need new large widebodies before 2023/2024. The A350 is much better suited for the needs of the early 2020s so most orders will be delivered on time or only slightly stretched.
 
Ronaldo747
Posts: 390
Joined: Sat Feb 14, 2009 4:58 pm

Re: LH to take maximum of 80 new aircraft thru 2023

Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:42 pm

chonetsao wrote:
Then LH made a pledge to buy European aircraft. So A359 will be coming. I would guess out of 27 models, maybe up to 20 will get delivered before 2023.


According of https://sites.google.com/site/lhgroupfleet/lufthansa they will only take one A359 in 2020 and the rest at 2023 onwards. So it looks like they already deferred the A359 deliveries.

The 777-9 will be late anyway. No signs of the 787, I would think they will not arrive until 2025.
 
DUSZRH
Posts: 222
Joined: Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:17 am

Re: LH to take maximum of 80 new aircraft thru 2023

Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:47 pm

na wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
Would not the B779 arrive from or after 2023? So B779 will definitely be the prime suspect of deferred delivery.

First 779 deliveries were postponed to mid-2021 before Corona. The inofficial LH fleetpage now mentions 2022.

I expect some 779-orders to be switched to 777Fs and most of the 15 remaining 779 deliveries to be deferred into the future by one to three years. LH doesn´t need new large widebodies before 2023/2024. The A350 is much better suited for the needs of the early 2020s so most orders will be delivered on time or only slightly stretched.


Yes, I heard it also unofficially that the first one is to come in 22. Also for the A350, the first batch of 20 is complete (pre corona), 17 to LH and three former LH slots for the GAF. The first 787 was scheduled way beyond 2023.

btw. the 80 aircraft number was part of the rescue package (as a minimum number, the finance minister is from HAM, so he has very cosiderate interest that LH takes A320s from XFW ;) ).

And don't forget the A320s ordered by LX, as the 80 number is for the whole group.

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