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CobaltScar
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:43 pm

11C wrote:
airportugal310 wrote:
HNLSLCPDX wrote:
I think adding more places from LAX such as ATL, Hawaii, TPA, BNA, PVR, and SJD could definitely help though.


Yes, because adding in more flights to places where there are already plenty of entrenched carriers is a winning recipe for success


Sure, it can be if your costs are lower.


And your hard product and soft product are 10x better too.

Edit: this is going to put the squeeze on Alaska's LAX transcon game at a time they are already losing the short haul game to WN in California.
Last edited by CobaltScar on Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:49 pm

tphuang wrote:

Big question is where are the gates coming from?


For now, they will likely be able to have LAWA evict AA from the low 50 gates. With AA's downsizing and freq reductions, this should not be much of an issue. Eventually, they will probably move to the new Midfield terminal. For similar reasons, there will be space there for the next few years.



MIflyer12 wrote:
Seventy flights in five years is pretty measured growth... LAX both starts early and goes late, and it's not like they'll be using widebodies.


Not only that, but realistically, pre-Covid, there were plenty of three to five hour gaps btw flts at gates 55A, 57, 59 & 58. Those were always great shifts to work, but I expect that will no longer be true as the space becomes more full.




nine4nine wrote:

5 airlines a few that will look drastically different by the time the Covid situation levels out. AS has been cutting transcons, AA is shrinking at LAX, UA on the verge of a massive downsizing, DL scratching its head on what to do after investing in ventures that have practically gone BK. The timing And situation couldn’t be better For B6 to grab a large amount of gates at LAX. At this point they can basically have the entire MSC terminal. Well done B6..well done!!!!

Overflow can be directed to BUR and ONT.


B6 did do a good job on this, yes. And it also looks like they really did not have a choice. AA are in bad shape and righteously deserve to fail as a business. That will not happen as further bailouts and BK are utilized. But they are weak now, giving smaller companies like B6 a chance to move on this. Post BK, airlines like AA & UA are in stronger positions as obligations are shed while B6 would have been where they were before had they just stood still.

For that reason, I would expect this is not the only announcement we will see from the likes of B6, NK, & AS over the next few months.

drdisque wrote:
LAX-HPN couldn't come until they get the CS-300 on property. No way an A320 could get off HPN with a full load and make it to LAX without a stop. It'd be an interesting niche flight if they could pull it off though.


They will never take delivery of the CS-300. But they do have A220-300s on order, yes.

As for the rest, I would not be so sure of that. An A321N can very easily handle that, with a load that makes LAX worth doing. Same again for the A320 w/sharklets & ACTs. Re-dispatch is also an option. The days of B6 taking fuel stops on T-cons are largely in the past as those 320s are largely loop-locked to East Coast & Caribbean routings.

With the operational cost of the 321N, it may very well be just this side of economically viable until the A223s come along. If starting that up sooner develops the market for that route, it does not appear there would be any reason to forgo this. It would be a good guess there are a lot of people who would rather not trek all the way down to JFK or EWR, especially if coming in from Northern Suburbs & CT.



nine4nine wrote:
BUR most likely gets another boost in flights as well and SNA added once the 220 comes online.



Both BUR & SNA to HPN/SWF/ISP seem like a virtually Ideal use for the 220s, in addition to usual suspect destinations like EWR/JFK...


lostsound wrote:
I think the pandemic has poked a lot of holes in the competition while B6 has been handling it decently. It's the perfect time for them to try this! I think the LA creatives market will gravitate to B6 rather quickly if they can get the pricing & marketing campaign right. Their biggest threat is without a doubt WN; as it was at LGB.


Well said. I would wager there was considerable internal pressure to make these —and likely more coming— moves, given the timing. This is very good to see.


OzarkD9S wrote:
Would love to know their planned frequency LAX-SFO. They'll need one gate at LAX almost solely dedicated to SFO to offer any kind of competition.


If they are not specifically trying to be number one on that, all they need to do is make money on the flights they operate. What the competition's metrics are will not matter to them. With their fleet and crew costs, this does not seem like a particularly daunting task.

I do guess that it will be more than once daily, however. There is more or less constant demand for that route. And as mentioned, there will be space at both ends, given the retrenchment of the incumbent carriers.

vikkyvik wrote:
Speaking for myself and my wife, a LOT of the appeal is lost. I love flying B6, and I love flying out of LGB, in approximately equal measure. So now the question is: start flying another airline, or suck it up and deal with LAX?


Without a doubt. LGB is better for PAX than LAX in every way it is possible to be so.


catiii wrote:
The comparisons between JetBlue and VA start and end with the cool brand and Airbus.


Right. But the appeal is still there even if there is indeed a lot more to B6 than there was to VX.


CobaltScar wrote:
Why keep token flights out of BUR and ONT but not LGB?


Those flights still make money. They —mainly BUR— also help with B6's ability to continue pulling ent contracts away from AA.

airportugal310 wrote:
Yes, because adding in more flights to places where there are already plenty of entrenched carriers is a winning recipe for success


If those flights profit B6, how do B6 lose money just because competition is there?




CobaltScar wrote:

And your hard product and soft product are 10x better too.

:checkmark:
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Newark727
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:55 pm

Welp. Guess I'm not flying B6 again.
 
CobaltScar
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:57 pm

Newark727 wrote:
Welp. Guess I'm not flying B6 again.


Thank the Long Beach city council next time you see them!
 
Lootess
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:04 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
Newark727 wrote:
Welp. Guess I'm not flying B6 again.


Thank the Long Beach city council next time you see them!


Yep, I figured JetBlue would need to move to LAX to really takeoff thanks to Long Beach city council "not in our backyard" stance. So this news is very welcoming and LAWA can certainly make them room
 
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sunking737
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:06 pm

Another middle of the night move of planes and equipment.. So WN is now #1 in LGB??
"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

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airportugal310
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:15 pm

From the LGB Airport Instagram page (and maybe its on Facebook too...)

Statement from Long Beach Airport Director Cynthia Guidry on today's @jetblue announcement:

“We will always be grateful for the investment JetBlue made in our community and the tremendous service they offered our passengers. We understand that the aviation industry – now more than ever – is constantly changing and airlines nationwide are making difficult business decisions to stay competitive in light of the pandemic. We expect strong interest in the slots as they become available.”
“They bought their tickets, they knew what they were getting into. I say, let 'em crash.”
 
nine4nine
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:30 pm

airportugal310 wrote:
From the LGB Airport Instagram page (and maybe its on Facebook too...)

Statement from Long Beach Airport Director Cynthia Guidry on today's @jetblue announcement:

“We will always be grateful for the investment JetBlue made in our community and the tremendous service they offered our passengers. We understand that the aviation industry – now more than ever – is constantly changing and airlines nationwide are making difficult business decisions to stay competitive in light of the pandemic. We expect strong interest in the slots as they become available.”



Lol. Deflect...!..Deflect....!!!! What they meant to say was.... “In light of our unfriendly community and non-business friendly policies adapted by the inept mongoloids on our City Council and the Knuckleheads at the Airport Authority, we’ve made an environment that is unsustainable for any airline to make money much less a fortress operation. With the loss of JetBlue, we look forward to eventually returning to the Long Beach Airport of the past catering to short lived public charter carriers.”
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MAH4546
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:33 pm

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
tphuang wrote:

Big question is where are the gates coming from?


For now, they will likely be able to have LAWA evict AA from the low 50 gates. With AA's downsizing and freq reductions, this should not be much of an issue. Eventually, they will probably move to the new Midfield terminal. For similar reasons, there will be space there for the next few years.


With AA likely moving all Eagle operations to T5, and sutting down the Nest, they need those gates more than before. AA has not detailed any plans to cut LAX domestic flying yet (it will inevitably happen, but unlikely to be a massive downsize), just what amounts to four daily long-haul flights.

JetBlue is only in T5 temporarily as you alluded to. The space will be there, but nobody is being evicted.
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HVN2HEL2LAX
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:46 pm

nine4nine wrote:
airportugal310 wrote:
From the LGB Airport Instagram page (and maybe its on Facebook too...)

Statement from Long Beach Airport Director Cynthia Guidry on today's @jetblue announcement:

“We will always be grateful for the investment JetBlue made in our community and the tremendous service they offered our passengers. We understand that the aviation industry – now more than ever – is constantly changing and airlines nationwide are making difficult business decisions to stay competitive in light of the pandemic. We expect strong interest in the slots as they become available.”



Lol. Deflect...!..Deflect....!!!! What they meant to say was.... “In light of our unfriendly community and non-business friendly policies adapted by the inept mongoloids on our City Council and the Knuckleheads at the Airport Authority, we’ve made an environment that is unsustainable for any airline to make money much less a fortress operation. With the loss of JetBlue, we look forward to eventually returning to the Long Beach Airport of the past catering to short lived public charter carriers.”


Mission accomplished if that's what/who the residents voted in.

Who knows, maybe they are getting some sorta under-the-table kick-back from LAWA to keep that kind of atmosphere in place and give LAX more traffic.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:46 pm

I’m not sure if the new terminals are still going ahead but if so won’t they be ready by 2025?
 
WkndWanderer
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:51 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
11C wrote:
airportugal310 wrote:

Yes, because adding in more flights to places where there are already plenty of entrenched carriers is a winning recipe for success


Sure, it can be if your costs are lower.[/quote
Edit: this is going to put the squeeze on Alaska's LAX transcon game at a time they are already losing the short haul game to WN in California.


How? It doesn’t look like any of the new routes are transcon, Alaska has already adjusted their transcon service, and their costs are a bit lower. With the exceptions of SEA and SFO none of the new routes seem to be head to head with AS, and they certainly aren’t getting run out of either of those.
 
avi8
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:15 pm

Pretty sure JetBlue will eventually take a slice of the LAX-Mexico/Central America market if they plan to get to 70 daily flights.
avi8
 
F27500
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:21 pm

Good .. screw Long Beach. All they did was mess with B6 over the years ... the stupid fines over "missed curfew", etc .. Glad B6 is finally saying a big 'Bite Me" to LGB .. and going someplace where they won;t be penalized by an airport administration that fights against their tenants ... and customers.

Idiots.
 
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AAlaxfan
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:24 pm

Let's see. MSC planned opening is Sept. B6 increasing ops at LAX in Oct. B6 worked with LAWA on move. Less international demand for the foreseeable future. Can you say B6 moving into MSC north?
Grumpy. Not a dwarf, not an attitude. It's a lifestyle.
 
GSP psgr
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:28 pm

I can see JetBlue trying to make a go of niche routes to Eastern markets as COVID eventually abates and using that as a springboard to build out a limited Western route market. PBI/RSW/JAX/PIT/SWF/PVD-LAX and maybe SJU-LAX if the new 321 models make it economically worthwhile. I could also see them trying their hand at weekend only premium leisure markets in Central America and the Carribbean, where they have some strength.
 
LAXBUR
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:33 pm

F27500 wrote:
Good .. screw Long Beach. All they did was mess with B6 over the years ... the stupid fines over "missed curfew", etc .. Glad B6 is finally saying a big 'Bite Me" to LGB .. and going someplace where they won;t be penalized by an airport administration that fights against their tenants ... and customers.

Idiots.


SNA does the same thing and everyone follows the rules there.

Y’all can blame LGB, but with more or less flights B6 didn’t make the money they wanted to. Pretty simple, LGB overlaps the market of two other nearby airports. The only way it can survive is with discounted fares and trash yields. Not that hard to figure out.
 
toltommy
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:35 pm

airportugal310 wrote:
Yes, because adding in more flights to places where there are already plenty of entrenched carriers is a winning recipe for success


You forgot an important point. They're going to be successful because they are going to attract the Virgin America crowd. You know, the ones who made Virgin America wildly profitable!!!
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airportugal310
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:36 pm

toltommy wrote:
airportugal310 wrote:
Yes, because adding in more flights to places where there are already plenty of entrenched carriers is a winning recipe for success


You forgot an important point. They're going to be successful because they are going to attract the Virgin America crowd. You know, the ones who made Virgin America wildly profitable!!!


Ughhhh I hate when I do that!!
“They bought their tickets, they knew what they were getting into. I say, let 'em crash.”
 
VS11
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:43 pm

Great for jetBlue! It seems to me they have been the ballsiest in view of the current state of affairs. In many markets, the US3 will cut frequencies to get better yield. UA is already running 787 transcon from EWR so jetBlue must have figured they have a cost advantage already by using a narrow-body.

The strategy is great but let's hope the pockets are deep to get them to the other side of this unthinkable industry meltdown.
 
enplaned
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Thu Jul 09, 2020 11:07 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
I can't get a straight answer, will LGB continue to be a blue city or will it have zero flights going forward?

edit: well last day of operations at LGB is early Oct so I guess that means ZERO flights? sad, did not see that coming. Why keep token flights out of BUR and ONT but not LGB?


LGB has terrible demographics. If you split up the LA area by drivetime (allocate each zip code to the airport closest by drivetime) and then look at the demographics of the resulting territories, you'll find that LGB has, by far, the worst income demographics of any airport other than ONT.

By and large, the wealth in the LA area is not near LGB.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Thu Jul 09, 2020 11:44 pm

VS11 wrote:
Great for jetBlue! It seems to me they have been the ballsiest in view of the current state of affairs. In many markets, the US3 will cut frequencies to get better yield. UA is already running 787 transcon from EWR so jetBlue must have figured they have a cost advantage already by using a narrow-body.

The strategy is great but let's hope the pockets are deep to get them to the other side of this unthinkable industry meltdown.



That is my concern too.

I sure as hell hope management knows what it is doing.

B6 has almost always been conservative post Neeleman. Now they are acting like a high roller in Vegas. Let’s hope the cash is there to back up the checks
 
FSDan
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:05 am

lostsound wrote:
Their biggest threat is without a doubt WN; as it was at LGB.


I disagree on that. WN's bread and butter from LAX is high frequency short haul (Bay Area, LAS, PHX) plus Texas and flights to other strong WN bases like DEN, STL, MDW, BNA, and BWI. I'll be surprised if B6 makes much of a play for that traffic.

I do think markets like PBI, JAX, and PVD could be on the short list for B6 to add in the next 5 years (decent sized markets with no current nonstop service), and if they're planning to expand internationally it will almost certainly be to Mexico/Guatemala/Costa Rica, etc., although that's a decently crowded market between AS, DL, AA, UA, WN, and the internationals. Nonetheless, if they can replicate the success they've had among the NYC Caribbean VFR communities with the Mexican and Central American VFR communities of L.A., maybe they have a shot at taking some market share from the others.
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catiii
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:15 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
catiii wrote:
GVZZZ wrote:
Just hope they find more passengers than Virgin America did though - lovely aeroplanes but in my experience not full!


VA was 65 or so airplanes and what, 30 cities? JetBlue is orders of magnitude bigger, has an extremely profitable and well known TCON franchise and brand, and a fleet size (assuming the E190s retire) that will be well into the 300s in terms of numbers. Not sure what flights you were on but pre-Covid, were averaging system LF in the high 80s/low 90s percent.

The comparisons between JetBlue and VA start and end with the cool brand and Airbus.


Not on the West Coast, they don't. VX had a West Coast flight count significantly larger than what B6 even contemplates for 2025. B6 is aiming to be #5 or #6 at LAX. That is not obviously a profitable franchise.


Except LAX already has some of the best margins in the system TCON. It’s foolish to equate size to profitability. And you’re focused on the existing schedule, not the future schedule to yet to be announced destinations that have already been teased out internally.
 
santi319
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:20 am

The writing was on the wall. Good for B6 and securing a spot in LAX, this is what being proactive means, as I can assure in a few years LAX will be as crowded as ever, and securing gates and slots will be extremely difficult.
 
catiii
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:22 am

airportugal310 wrote:
HNLSLCPDX wrote:
I think adding more places from LAX such as ATL, Hawaii, TPA, BNA, PVR, and SJD could definitely help though.


Yes, because adding in more flights to places where there are already plenty of entrenched carriers is a winning recipe for success


If you sell a product at $2000, and I sell a demonstrably and proven better product at $999, who has the “winning recipe for success?”
 
SurfandSnow
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:40 am

LAXintl wrote:
JetBlue today announced it will make LAX its primary base of operations in greater Los Angeles, advancing its focus city strategy and building relevance for the airline in one of the busiest markets in the world. To enable the shift, the airline will move service currently operated at Long Beach Airport (LGB) to LAX, along with its Long Beach crew and maintenance bases, beginning in October.


Very exciting! I'll be the first to admit that I *love* using the beautiful hassle-free LGB airport, but living here in West Hollywood (in a rent controlled apartment - I may never leave!), notoriously heavy and unpredictable southern California traffic makes it just about impossible for me to consider using that airport over LAX or my preferred BUR.

LAXintl wrote:
Effective October 7, 2020, JetBlue will operate nonstop service between LAX and seven new markets:
Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (AUS)
Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport (BZN) [seasonal]
Las Vegas McCarran International Airport (LAS)
Reno-Tahoe International Airport (RNO)
Salt Lake City International Airport (SLC)
San Francisco International Airport (SFO)
Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (SEA)


Wow! AUS, LAS, RNO and even BZN made the cut, but not PDX? Then again, Portland travelers are probably far more excited about the advent of nonstop service to South Florida than yet more service to LA...

LAXintl wrote:
New markets will complement existing nonstop service between LAX and:
Boston Logan International Airport (BOS) *MINT*
Buffalo Niagara International Airport (BUF)
Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL) *MINT*
New York John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) *MINT*
Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) *MINT* [Launching July 23]
Orlando International Airport (MCO)


Very interesting. I had wondered about LAX-MCO and particularly LAX-BUF sticking around. Perhaps we could see stuff like LAX-BDL, LAX-PVD and maybe even something like LAX-PBI added in the future? I suppose highly seasonal ski resort markets like EGE, HDN, JAC and MTJ are possible future additions too!

LAXintl wrote:
JetBlue’s final day of operations in Long Beach will be October 6.


No surprise there - once OAK was gone, I figured LGB wouldn't be far behind. No need to be nostalgic for these airports when carriers like AA and UA walked away from these airports for similar reasons before.

I wonder if the B6 LGB slots will even be sought after. WN could try to gobble up all of the LGB slots it can - but then what? Can they make something like LGB-SFO or LGB-DAL work? I doubt WN would even bother to try serving the Pacific Northwest nonstop, though I can't help but wonder if AS may consider a return to LGB. PDX and SEA did seem to be some of the better performers for B6 from the LGB "hub".

LAXintl wrote:
Good luck to them. LAX while large is certainly a very competitive market, and others wont just stand by and watch B6 as they did with them in LGB.


I think the B6 brand is quite well known and loved in the LA market - but many fans of the airline just weren't willing to drive (or rideshare) all the way to far-flung alternate airports like LGB and ONT. The AS hub at LAX inherited from VX may very well already be on the chopping block, and even WN made some rather substantial cuts to LAX recently. The legacy carrier hubs at LAX may be somewhat vulnerable too, given the sudden loss of significant Hawaii and international capacity that may have substantially helped fill those carriers' domestic flights. It will be very interesting to see what happens going forward. The B6 brand is widely liked and far more consistent than competitors like AA/AS/UA. I daresay EWR is a bolder move than LAX.
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United1
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:46 am

catiii wrote:
airportugal310 wrote:
HNLSLCPDX wrote:
I think adding more places from LAX such as ATL, Hawaii, TPA, BNA, PVR, and SJD could definitely help though.


Yes, because adding in more flights to places where there are already plenty of entrenched carriers is a winning recipe for success


If you sell a product at $2000, and I sell a demonstrably and proven better product at $999, who has the “winning recipe for success?”


that depends....if the $2000 product costs $100 to make and I sell two of them I make $3800. If the superior $999 product costs $75 to make and I sell four of them I make $3696. Who came out ahead?
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
DTWLAX
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:47 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Sorry this is a bit off topic. B6 announced their future intentions for LAX but I haven’t heard anything for EWR? Has B6 said anything about their future growth there?

Yes you have heard about B6 and EWR.
You have multiple posts in this thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1447789
Last edited by DTWLAX on Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:47 am

One thing to consider playing with the big boys means paying bigger bills. Hopefully the revenue follows.

For example A321 landing fee at LGB vs LAX for FY2019.

LGB = $667

LAX = $1894

So everything from landing fees, to parking, to utility fees, rental, per passenger fees etc will be dearer at LAX - thousands per flight which will need to be earned somehow via ticket revenue.

Best of luck
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
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usxguy
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:50 am

re: LAWA/LAX T5 and AA

I thought all of T5 was common use? Or do a few carriers have preferential use?

LAWA can, and will, allow other airlines to use preferential gates if the host airline has long enough gaps in turns. So after the airlines file their SCRs & SSIMs with the airports, if someone wants to come in later and put a flight in and use one of AA's gates, they can, if no other common use gates are available. *or use a remote pad
xx
 
ldvaviation
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:05 am

tphuang wrote:
That's the curious part. It seems the best case scenario for them is to stay in T5 to be competitive with big 4 + AS, rather than be in a far off terminal. But if they stay in T5, then that would basically mean the other ULCCs are moving out and AA is not getting more gates. I had a theory that AA will be a lot smaller at LAX and that will enable B6 to add gates there.

If that's the case, then one has to congratulate JetBlue management in their negotiations with LAWA.



AA's current lease gives AA future rights to more than half the gates at T5. (As of this date, the lease has not been renegotiated.)

LAWA was trying to move the other airlines in T5 to the MSC to clear the way for demolition of the Eagle facility and the construction of T9. Pending legislation with Hawaiian Airlines stalled that move.

It appears now the T9 project will be shelved. Still, if AA proceeds with the T4 rebuild, their rights to gates in T5 will fully vest.
 
ShinyAndChrome
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:06 am

Wonder when these will come on sale.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:13 am

usxguy wrote:
re: LAWA/LAX T5 and AA

I thought all of T5 was common use? Or do a few carriers have preferential use?

LAWA can, and will, allow other airlines to use preferential gates if the host airline has long enough gaps in turns. So after the airlines file their SCRs & SSIMs with the airports, if someone wants to come in later and put a flight in and use one of AA's gates, they can, if no other common use gates are available. *or use a remote pad


AA currently has preferential use of 4 gates in T-5 (5th one once terminal gate reconfiguration is finished) as part of proprietary investments in its master lease that runs till 2039.
AA may also access up to 5 other gates on common use basis, plus a common use bus gate in T-5. They have exclusive use of ~40,000sq/ft office/facility space in T5 aswell.
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azjubilee
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:16 am

LAXintl wrote:
AA currently has preferential use of 4 gates in T-5 (5th one once terminal gate reconfiguration is finished) as part of proprietary investments in its master lease that runs till 2039. AA may also access up to 5 other gates on common use basis, plus a common use bus gate in T-5. They have exclusive use of ~40,000sq/ft office/facility space in T5 aswell.


ldvaviation wrote:
LAWA was trying to move the other airlines in T5 to the MSC to clear the way for demolition of the Eagle facility and the construction of T9. Pending legislation with Hawaiian Airlines stalled that move.


Whatever came of HAL's concerns with the MSC? ie, Bradley/MSC not set up for domestic arrivals/departures and inconveniently using T5 baggage claim.
 
onwFan
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:43 am

ldvaviation wrote:
tphuang wrote:
That's the curious part. It seems the best case scenario for them is to stay in T5 to be competitive with big 4 + AS, rather than be in a far off terminal. But if they stay in T5, then that would basically mean the other ULCCs are moving out and AA is not getting more gates. I had a theory that AA will be a lot smaller at LAX and that will enable B6 to add gates there.

If that's the case, then one has to congratulate JetBlue management in their negotiations with LAWA.



AA's current lease gives AA future rights to more than half the gates at T5. (As of this date, the lease has not been renegotiated.)

LAWA was trying to move the other airlines in T5 to the MSC to clear the way for demolition of the Eagle facility and the construction of T9. Pending legislation with Hawaiian Airlines stalled that move.

It appears now the T9 project will be shelved. Still, if AA proceeds with the T4 rebuild, their rights to gates in T5 will fully vest.

If the T9 plan is shelved, then depending on how much UA shrinks, T8 may also be another available option? B6 and HA could have it to themselves and would solve HA’s problem and give B6 the exclusive use of a lot of gates. Also matches with the ~70 daily flights estimate.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:03 am

FSDan wrote:
lostsound wrote:
Their biggest threat is without a doubt WN; as it was at LGB.


I disagree on that. WN's bread and butter from LAX is high frequency short haul (Bay Area, LAS, PHX) plus Texas and flights to other strong WN bases like DEN, STL, MDW, BNA, and BWI. I'll be surprised if B6 makes much of a play for that traffic.

I do think markets like PBI, JAX, and PVD could be on the short list for B6 to add in the next 5 years (decent sized markets with no current nonstop service), and if they're planning to expand internationally it will almost certainly be to Mexico/Guatemala/Costa Rica, etc., although that's a decently crowded market between AS, DL, AA, UA, WN, and the internationals. Nonetheless, if they can replicate the success they've had among the NYC Caribbean VFR communities with the Mexican and Central American VFR communities of L.A., maybe they have a shot at taking some market share from the others.


Right, B6 at LAX will compete the least with WN. It will do minimal flying to secondary west coast market or middle of the country where WN is strong at.
https://paxex.aero/2020/07/jetblue-beef ... ong-beach/
Looks like SAL/GUA/LIR/SJO are all on their list of VFR spots from LAX. All markets they will have some local recognition from JFK by then. MEX would be tough, but they might attempt again. They do well to VFR markets without strong local LCC. I assume PVR/SJD/CUN/MZT could be added also. All these are markets where legacies don't have real advantage, which is probably why AS has the largest presence to these markets.

I think AA will bail on BDL. They can do transcon or near transcon flights to markets that have no legacy competition. Stuff like:
BDL, PIT, PVD, HPN, RSW, PBI, CLE (if UA drops that)
They run a lot of these thin long routes out of JFK that's too low yielding for legacies.

ldvaviation wrote:
tphuang wrote:
That's the curious part. It seems the best case scenario for them is to stay in T5 to be competitive with big 4 + AS, rather than be in a far off terminal. But if they stay in T5, then that would basically mean the other ULCCs are moving out and AA is not getting more gates. I had a theory that AA will be a lot smaller at LAX and that will enable B6 to add gates there.

If that's the case, then one has to congratulate JetBlue management in their negotiations with LAWA.



AA's current lease gives AA future rights to more than half the gates at T5. (As of this date, the lease has not been renegotiated.)

LAWA was trying to move the other airlines in T5 to the MSC to clear the way for demolition of the Eagle facility and the construction of T9. Pending legislation with Hawaiian Airlines stalled that move.

It appears now the T9 project will be shelved. Still, if AA proceeds with the T4 rebuild, their rights to gates in T5 will fully vest.


Are there usage requirements for the current lease? I don't see how AA will have the $1.6 billion for their project at this point. And I don't see AA operating more than 150 flights at LAX for the next couple of years.

One thing that seems to be clear to me is that B6 has no interest moving to MSC. And they are willing to fight pretty hard to stay in T5. It seems like they made it clear in their internal emails that they are staying put.

Either JetBlue management is really optimistic here about future gate acquisition (apparently, they only have 3 gate and requesting for a 4th + CUTE gate access) or they got some hint from LAWA that they will be able to have enough access to run 70 flights or they are making this announcement early to lobby for more gates.

LAXintl wrote:
AA currently has preferential use of 4 gates in T-5 (5th one once terminal gate reconfiguration is finished) as part of proprietary investments in its master lease that runs till 2039.
AA may also access up to 5 other gates on common use basis, plus a common use bus gate in T-5. They have exclusive use of ~40,000sq/ft office/facility space in T5 aswell.

I tracked T5 gate usage for a while. Never saw AA using those CUTE gates. B6 on the other hand was using CUTE gates for probably 1/3 to 1/4 of their departures.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:04 am

onwFan wrote:
If the T9 plan is shelved, then depending on how much UA shrinks, T8 may also be another available option? B6 and HA could have it to themselves and would solve HA’s problem and give B6 the exclusive use of a lot of gates. Also matches with the ~70 daily flights estimate.


T-8 is not a real terminal, its just a concourse. It has no baggage claim, no ticket counters, etc. Its all tied into UA T-7. Plus under T-8 is also where UA ops control center is, and crew base located. Really no where to move them in T-7 as it houses bagroom and mechanical rooms in lower levels.

Lastly T-8 does not have widebody gates(for HA),
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
onwFan
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:51 am

LAXintl wrote:
onwFan wrote:
If the T9 plan is shelved, then depending on how much UA shrinks, T8 may also be another available option? B6 and HA could have it to themselves and would solve HA’s problem and give B6 the exclusive use of a lot of gates. Also matches with the ~70 daily flights estimate.


T-8 is not a real terminal, its just a concourse. It has no baggage claim, no ticket counters, etc. Its all tied into UA T-7. Plus under T-8 is also where UA ops control center is, and crew base located. Really no where to move them in T-7 as it houses bagroom and mechanical rooms in lower levels.

Lastly T-8 does not have widebody gates(for HA),

Thanks, thats very useful information!

But then does that mean LAWA will be okay leaving a lot of gates empty at T7/8? Unless some Star carriers move into T8...A380 capability will probably no longer be an issue anytime in the near future...
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 3:01 am

avi8 wrote:
Pretty sure JetBlue will eventually take a slice of the LAX-Mexico/Central America market if they plan to get to 70 daily flights.

Seems reasonable to assume so. I'd guess 5 to 10 flights to central america. I think they will do well to GUA/SAL/SJO. Not sure about Mexican markets though. Those are notoriously tough given Mexican ULCC pressure.

MAH4546 wrote:
DarkSnowyNight wrote:
tphuang wrote:

Big question is where are the gates coming from?


For now, they will likely be able to have LAWA evict AA from the low 50 gates. With AA's downsizing and freq reductions, this should not be much of an issue. Eventually, they will probably move to the new Midfield terminal. For similar reasons, there will be space there for the next few years.


With AA likely moving all Eagle operations to T5, and sutting down the Nest, they need those gates more than before. AA has not detailed any plans to cut LAX domestic flying yet (it will inevitably happen, but unlikely to be a massive downsize), just what amounts to four daily long-haul flights.

JetBlue is only in T5 temporarily as you alluded to. The space will be there, but nobody is being evicted.


All indications are that JetBlue is not moving out of T5 anytime soon. AA will shrink big time at LAX. We will see what happens to their prior T4/T5 plans. They don't exactly have $1.6 billion to throw around right now. And if they do, they'd rather spend it on DFW and CLT than LAX. Either JetBlue is overly optimistic here about getting additional gates at 5 or LAWA has given them indication that they will get necessary gates (around 8 or 9 at least) if they continue to grow.

CobaltScar wrote:
I can't get a straight answer, will LGB continue to be a blue city or will it have zero flights going forward?

edit: well last day of operations at LGB is early Oct so I guess that means ZERO flights? sad, did not see that coming. Why keep token flights out of BUR and ONT but not LGB?

Pretty simple. BUR always performed better to JFK. And even ONT performed better than LGB by last summer to JFK. They can keep the 2x all-core A321N to BUR and 2x A320 to ONT now and pile the rest of capacity to LAX.

Over the next couople of years, I think you will see something like 15 to 16 flights a day from JFK/EWR and LAX.
 
MAH4546
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 3:42 am

tphuang wrote:
avi8 wrote:
Pretty sure JetBlue will eventually take a slice of the LAX-Mexico/Central America market if they plan to get to 70 daily flights.

Seems reasonable to assume so. I'd guess 5 to 10 flights to central america. I think they will do well to GUA/SAL/SJO. Not sure about Mexican markets though. Those are notoriously tough given Mexican ULCC pressure.

MAH4546 wrote:
DarkSnowyNight wrote:

For now, they will likely be able to have LAWA evict AA from the low 50 gates. With AA's downsizing and freq reductions, this should not be much of an issue. Eventually, they will probably move to the new Midfield terminal. For similar reasons, there will be space there for the next few years.


With AA likely moving all Eagle operations to T5, and sutting down the Nest, they need those gates more than before. AA has not detailed any plans to cut LAX domestic flying yet (it will inevitably happen, but unlikely to be a massive downsize), just what amounts to four daily long-haul flights.

JetBlue is only in T5 temporarily as you alluded to. The space will be there, but nobody is being evicted.


All indications are that JetBlue is not moving out of T5 anytime soon. AA will shrink big time at LAX. We will see what happens to their prior T4/T5 plans. They don't exactly have $1.6 billion to throw around right now. And if they do, they'd rather spend it on DFW and CLT than LAX. Either JetBlue is overly optimistic here about getting additional gates at 5 or LAWA has given them indication that they will get necessary gates (around 8 or 9 at least) if they continue to grow.

CobaltScar wrote:
I can't get a straight answer, will LGB continue to be a blue city or will it have zero flights going forward?

edit: well last day of operations at LGB is early Oct so I guess that means ZERO flights? sad, did not see that coming. Why keep token flights out of BUR and ONT but not LGB?

Pretty simple. BUR always performed better to JFK. And even ONT performed better than LGB by last summer to JFK. They can keep the 2x all-core A321N to BUR and 2x A320 to ONT now and pile the rest of capacity to LAX.

Over the next couople of years, I think you will see something like 15 to 16 flights a day from JFK/EWR and LAX.


There you go again with baseless assumptions passing them off as fact. AA will shrink, it will remain LAX’s single largest carrier, but will absolutely adjust capacity. It will also work to consolidate all flying into T4 and T5 and close the Eagle’s Nest. And there has been zero indications so far regarding terminal renovation changes. If anything, it now becomes a better time than ever to renovate, especially with an emptier terminal meaning renovations can be done more cheaply and efficiently.

There is no indication that JetBlue is in T5 for the long-haul whatsoever. JetBlue will relocate to the Midfield Concourse in all likelihood.
a.
 
onwFan
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 3:45 am

tphuang wrote:

MAH4546 wrote:
DarkSnowyNight wrote:

For now, they will likely be able to have LAWA evict AA from the low 50 gates. With AA's downsizing and freq reductions, this should not be much of an issue. Eventually, they will probably move to the new Midfield terminal. For similar reasons, there will be space there for the next few years.


With AA likely moving all Eagle operations to T5, and sutting down the Nest, they need those gates more than before. AA has not detailed any plans to cut LAX domestic flying yet (it will inevitably happen, but unlikely to be a massive downsize), just what amounts to four daily long-haul flights.

JetBlue is only in T5 temporarily as you alluded to. The space will be there, but nobody is being evicted.


All indications are that JetBlue is not moving out of T5 anytime soon. AA will shrink big time at LAX. We will see what happens to their prior T4/T5 plans. They don't exactly have $1.6 billion to throw around right now. And if they do, they'd rather spend it on DFW and CLT than LAX. Either JetBlue is overly optimistic here about getting additional gates at 5 or LAWA has given them indication that they will get necessary gates (around 8 or 9 at least) if they continue to grow.


What you envision would imply one of two things:-

1. AA is going to cut almost 9 -13 gates worth of flying from LAX altogether and just keep whatever they have now. They would hardly be able to offer any meaningful service than to their hubs. That would pretty ensure that AA will permanently be constrained at LAX. Their entire west coast presence would essentially be reduced to just flying to hubs. If they knew they were not flying any of those routes, why would they embark on a massive codeshare expansion last week with AS covering all their LAX routes?

2. AA is going to give up gate lease on T5 permanently and still keep Eagle's nest for at least some of the regional flying recently transferred to SkyWest. But given that AA has the far better option of closing Eagle's Nest altogether and using just 5 more gates at T5 (which is probably what they will need for now), what is their incentive to do that?. They may or may not need the 4 preferential use TBIT gates.

The other possibility is B6 using the remaining 4 gates at T5 for the time being. But that seems hardly worth it if they have a plan to expand, being sandwiched between AA and AS with no room to expand.
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:00 am

One advantage for B6 in this switch will be a better connectivity with HA, as all of the LGB destinations being switched to LAX are now going to get connections to four Hawaiian airports, rather than just HNL.
So... when will the Northwest DC-9s be retired?
 
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LAXintl
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:07 am

tphuang wrote:
I tracked T5 gate usage for a while. Never saw AA using those CUTE gates. B6 on the other hand was using CUTE gates for probably 1/3 to 1/4 of their departures.


AA used a CUTE gate today.

onwFan wrote:
2. AA is going to give up gate lease on T5 permanently and still keep Eagle's nest for at least some of the regional flying recently transferred to SkyWest. But given that AA has the far better option of closing Eagle's Nest altogether and using just 5 more gates at T5 (which is probably what they will need for now), what is their incentive to do that?. They may or may not need the 4 preferential use TBIT gates.


AA already gave the Eagle nest up few months ago. The Interior is already partially stripped. Former Delta hangar adjacent has been torn down, and Western Airlines corporate offices are coming down currently. New United hangar is going up.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:26 am

Varsity1 wrote:
I wonder how Jetblue will fair there. LAX is highly competitive.

IMO they should've just sucked it up and outbid AS for VX. SFO is a better fit for them.
DarkSnowyNight wrote:
Both BUR & SNA to HPN/SWF/ISP seem like a virtually Ideal use for the 220s, in addition to usual suspect destinations like EWR/JFK...

If they launch SNA-NYC, UA will not let that go without a fight. UA is the only one to have made SNA-NYC work and you have to expect that they are making a mint on that route.

I'm starting to take more interest in B6. They are getting ballsy. I also think their EWR strategy is just to get some low hanging fruit left behind by WN and to just serve some NYC-point if sale heavy routes from EWR.
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MDGLongBeach
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:36 am

JetBlue's shade towards LGB is comical:

https://abc7.com/business/jetblue-to-sh ... x/6310303/
"Officials at JetBlue -- which began service at LAX in 2009 -- noted that more people start or end their journey at LAX than any other airport in the world, and that its 24-hour-a-day operations and customs and immigrations facilities allow the airline more flexibility in future flight and destination scheduling."

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/ ... en/JetBlue’s-West-Coast-Focus-City-Strategy-Lands
"Elsewhere in greater Los Angeles, JetBlue will continue to serve Hollywood Burbank Airport (BUR) and Ontario International Airport (ONT), which are key to the airline’s broader LA strategy. JetBlue is appreciative of the support received from airport leadership and elected officials in both Burbank and Ontario."

And of course a typical LGB rep response:
"We will always be grateful for the investment JetBlue made in our community and the tremendous service they offered our passengers,'' said Long Beach Airport Director Cynthia Guidry. "We understand that the aviation industry -- now more than ever -- is constantly changing and airlines nationwide are making difficult business decisions to stay competitive in light of the pandemic. We expect strong interest in the slots as they become available."
Excuses and deflections, AGAIN.

On the other note, im curious to see what people think could've happened in a perfect case scenario if the LGB/B6 Saga actually worked out, keeping in mind restrictions and NIMBYs, but talking about a scenario where LGB reps would've given into B6 requests.
 
Jerseyguy
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:02 am

Are the nimbys are a small vocal minority of people who like to complain and have too much time on their hands? If no one takes the slots that B6 is giving up are things gonna get interesting when the city council comes up for reelection?
Last edited by Jerseyguy on Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:11 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
StinkyPinky
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:09 am

MDGLongBeach wrote:

On the other note, im curious to see what people think could've happened in a perfect case scenario if the LGB/B6 Saga actually worked out, keeping in mind restrictions and NIMBYs, but talking about a scenario where LGB reps would've given into B6 requests.


The airport would have been rebuilt nd improved much sooner. There would have been a customs facility and E190s would get to use the commuter slots. While they are heavier, they are quieter. The archaic slot restrictions are based on old school of thought that heavier planes are louder and therefore have a weight limitation rather than noise limitation. And Jetblue would have been ontime and heeded the noise curfews.
 
ShinyAndChrome
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:18 am

TWA772LR wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
I wonder how Jetblue will fair there. LAX is highly competitive.

IMO they should've just sucked it up and outbid AS for VX. SFO is a better fit for them.


To be fair, AS had the deeper pockets and the better credit. If there was at least a shred of truth in what AS management said about the value of the VX acquisition and how important is was for their future, I don't think B6 outbidding them was a possibility.

And I'd argue the opposite point re: LAX vs SFO for B6. In SFO, UA's existing brand awareness and network strength create hefty economies of scale in terms of retaining passengers. LAX's fragmentation arguably works to the benefit of upstarts, who will have a larger pool of more brand-agnostic customers to tap into.
 
atcdan
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:33 am

Personally I have only flown out of LGB twice, despite living closer. When flying for leisure I’m looking for the cheapest fare and best product on a non-stop flight and those are usually more plentiful and cheaper out of LAX.

As far as flying b6: I have been treated like absolute garbage by employees of AA and UA, thus try to avoid them because it’s been multiple bad interactions (more on AA than UA but I used to fly them more). I stick with AS, DL, WN out of LAX, and would be happy to give B6 a go, as I haven’t flown them much lately, but they seemed to have good customer service I.e. don’t snap rudely at customers for asking questions.

And for those who say “the money is in XXX part of Los Angeles”... until you’ve lived here, you cannot possibly appreciate the magnitude and breadth of wealth and income that make up the entire Los Angeles basin. Yes there is a lot of money in OC, but the overall trend is the closer you live to the water, the richer you are, and LAX happens to sit right in the middle of some of the priciest real estate in the USA.

I think JetBlue will do very well at LAX and I’m definitely rooting for them to succeed and provide some meaningful competition.
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