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Blerg
Posts: 4084
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:17 am

I wonder if Long Beach might become a destination for Breeze next year. I suppose the airport would be desperate enough to attract a new customer while Breeze could use it as their LA airport. After all, isn't it the only Los Angeles airport jetBlue will no longer fly to?
 
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hawaiian717
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:21 am

Blerg wrote:
After all, isn't it the only Los Angeles airport jetBlue will no longer fly to?


JetBlue doesn’t fly to SNA either.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:38 am

UPlog wrote:
Seems no matter how hard airlines try, all roads in LA lead to LAX where the money and customers are.

True, but didn't help that LGB city/residents basically spit in their face every step of the way, post-launch.


flyby519 wrote:
Would AA/AS/B6 be able to have some sort of comprehensive codeshare partnership to create a less fractured market in these types of competitive cities?

Might ruffle some regulatory feathers. And even if not, they'd have to still compete; they could not coordinate schedules nor share non-operated revenue.


CobaltScar wrote:
Why keep token flights out of BUR and ONT but not LGB?

Because LGB doesn't really offer anything that LAX doesn't cover just as easily.

BUR serves as the Valley's primary gateway, and areas as far north as Santa Clarita. Also domestic pax coming from the likes of Camarillo, Calabasas, Woodland Hills, Tarzana, Encino, etc can shave a good 30min+ off their already traffic-laden drive by going to BUR, rather than continuing down the 405 to LAX.

ONT serves as the primary gateway for the Inland Empire, San Gabriel Valley, and the more westward parts of the desert, and northward parts of Orange County... all of which would take an additional hour (in the most generous of times) to get to LAX, and far worse in traffic.

LGB is convenient to the South Bay, but for all the residents to its north, LAX is a 15-20ish min hop up the 405 or Sepulveda; and for the residents to its south and east, about the same to SNA. Both of which offer far more destinations/frequencies/service/airlines/etc.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Jerseyguy
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 10:03 am

Blerg wrote:
I wonder if Long Beach might become a destination for Breeze next year. I suppose the airport would be desperate enough to attract a new customer while Breeze could use it as their LA airport. After all, isn't it the only Los Angeles airport jetBlue will no longer fly to?


I'm sure LGB wants more service, secondary reliever airports do better when they have more nonstops. You lose your convenience factor if you always have to connect to get anywhere. Im sure if LGB wants to give them a good deal, Breeze would be willing to try it.
 
catiii
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:38 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
avi8 wrote:
Pretty sure JetBlue will eventually take a slice of the LAX-Mexico/Central America market if they plan to get to 70 daily flights.

Seems reasonable to assume so. I'd guess 5 to 10 flights to central america. I think they will do well to GUA/SAL/SJO. Not sure about Mexican markets though. Those are notoriously tough given Mexican ULCC pressure.

MAH4546 wrote:

With AA likely moving all Eagle operations to T5, and sutting down the Nest, they need those gates more than before. AA has not detailed any plans to cut LAX domestic flying yet (it will inevitably happen, but unlikely to be a massive downsize), just what amounts to four daily long-haul flights.

JetBlue is only in T5 temporarily as you alluded to. The space will be there, but nobody is being evicted.


All indications are that JetBlue is not moving out of T5 anytime soon. AA will shrink big time at LAX. We will see what happens to their prior T4/T5 plans. They don't exactly have $1.6 billion to throw around right now. And if they do, they'd rather spend it on DFW and CLT than LAX. Either JetBlue is overly optimistic here about getting additional gates at 5 or LAWA has given them indication that they will get necessary gates (around 8 or 9 at least) if they continue to grow.

CobaltScar wrote:
I can't get a straight answer, will LGB continue to be a blue city or will it have zero flights going forward?

edit: well last day of operations at LGB is early Oct so I guess that means ZERO flights? sad, did not see that coming. Why keep token flights out of BUR and ONT but not LGB?

Pretty simple. BUR always performed better to JFK. And even ONT performed better than LGB by last summer to JFK. They can keep the 2x all-core A321N to BUR and 2x A320 to ONT now and pile the rest of capacity to LAX.

Over the next couople of years, I think you will see something like 15 to 16 flights a day from JFK/EWR and LAX.


There you go again with baseless assumptions passing them off as fact. AA will shrink, it will remain LAX’s single largest carrier, but will absolutely adjust capacity. It will also work to consolidate all flying into T4 and T5 and close the Eagle’s Nest. And there has been zero indications so far regarding terminal renovation changes. If anything, it now becomes a better time than ever to renovate, especially with an emptier terminal meaning renovations can be done more cheaply and efficiently.

There is no indication that JetBlue is in T5 for the long-haul whatsoever. JetBlue will relocate to the Midfield Concourse in all likelihood.


JetBlue will not be relocating to the midfield terminal as was said internally yesterday.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:42 pm

The strange thing about the 70 flight announcement is that they have only done this in the past when they are confident they can get the gate resources to operate them. And they made it pretty clear in their internal emails that they are not going to MSC. At BOS, they made the 200 flight target announcement and then announced deals with MassPort for getting 6 additional gates many months later. At FLL, they made the 140 flight target announcement and then announced deal for 5 more gates over a year later. At MCO, News came out that they were getting 14 gates at south terminal because they were looking to expand to over 100 flights.

I presume what they do is show the airport their expansion plans and request for additional gates. The fact that this got announced in a period of cuts from other carriers would indicate they are pretty confident LAWA will give them enough gates over the next 3 or 4 years to have 70 flights as long as they continue to have high gate utilization. So I do expect some announcement in the next year or 2 of JetBlue getting additional gates. Maybe we will find out after ULCCs and HA gets pushed to MSC. Where they get to stay at T5 or end up in another non-MSC terminal, we will find out.

onwFan wrote:
What you envision would imply one of two things:-

1. AA is going to cut almost 9 -13 gates worth of flying from LAX altogether and just keep whatever they have now. They would hardly be able to offer any meaningful service than to their hubs. That would pretty ensure that AA will permanently be constrained at LAX. Their entire west coast presence would essentially be reduced to just flying to hubs. If they knew they were not flying any of those routes, why would they embark on a massive codeshare expansion last week with AS covering all their LAX routes?

2. AA is going to give up gate lease on T5 permanently and still keep Eagle's nest for at least some of the regional flying recently transferred to SkyWest. But given that AA has the far better option of closing Eagle's Nest altogether and using just 5 more gates at T5 (which is probably what they will need for now), what is their incentive to do that?. They may or may not need the 4 preferential use TBIT gates.

The other possibility is B6 using the remaining 4 gates at T5 for the time being. But that seems hardly worth it if they have a plan to expand, being sandwiched between AA and AS with no room to expand.


Well, there are 16 gates at T4 and 15 gates at T5. I presume ULCCs + HA will get pushed out of T5. Let's say B6 gets preferential access to 5 gates, AA gates access to 5 gates and 5 other are CUTE. Do I think AA will be able to run their entire schedule with all of the gates at T4 + that level of gate access at T5? Definitely. They will be at most 150 flights at LAX for a few years and a small portion of that will be flown out of TBIT. They really don't need more than 20 gates at T4/5 for their remaining flights. I'm sure they'd like to keep more, but they don't really need more. AA will be tight on cash for a few years, so I just don't see that $1.6 billion investment go ahead.

I think there are other possibilities for B6 also. Maybe they end up with most of T0. Maybe they end up somewhere in T6 to T8. I think the most likely scenario at this point is staying in T5.

TWA772LR wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
I wonder how Jetblue will fair there. LAX is highly competitive.

IMO they should've just sucked it up and outbid AS for VX. SFO is a better fit for them.

AS paid $2.6 billion for basically 7 gates at SFO, 4 to 5 gates at LAX and some slots. Looks like JetBlue will get more gate than that at LAX and probably will get 1 or 2 more gates at SFO. And slots are widely available now. COVID is getting them everything they sought after in the VX deal in the west coast. Not worth it.

It looks to me that AS is now going to favor LAX over SFO due to its partnership with AA. So gate space at SFO should be more available than before. I still don't see SFO being easier than LAX. JetBlue does well in highly fragmented market like NYC and South Florida where they are not the largest carrier. They don't do well in markets dominated by 1 fortress carrier. I don't see how JetBlue would do better at SFO than what AS has done.

In order for them to succeed at LAX, they need to do a few things I think:
1) continue expanding mint on trasncon + HI. I see them getting to over 30 mint flights when all is said and done
2) Really pour resources into LAX. Meaning putting latest A321N and A220 there. They basically dumped old A320s in LGB for a long time because there was no opportunity for improvement there. Can't do that with LAX. They need a A220 base there.
3) Find long and thing transcon markets out of LAX that are under-served by non-ULCCs and serve them
4) Find VFR markets that are undeserved by US carriers and aggressively serve them with low cost A321s.
5) Try not to lose too much money on the west coast stuff by using a good product that have lost cost. That's where A220 comes in. To be competitive to big markets like SFO/LAS/SEA, they will need to use A220 to not lose too much money here.
 
Tack
Posts: 90
Joined: Thu Oct 04, 2018 11:13 pm

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:05 pm

heretothere wrote:
Well, based on their moves the last few weeks, I think it’s safe to say B6 is not interested in any partnerships with AA, UA, or AS anytime soon...


I’m thinking it was that AA, UA, or AS aren’t interested in any partnerships anytime soon.
 
DoctorVenkman
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Joined: Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:10 pm

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:13 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
Why keep token flights out of BUR and ONT but not LGB?

BUR serves as the Valley's primary gateway, and areas as far north as Santa Clarita. Also domestic pax coming from the likes of Camarillo, Calabasas, Woodland Hills, Tarzana, Encino, etc can shave a good 30min+ off their already traffic-laden drive by going to BUR, rather than continuing down the 405 to LAX.


Don't forget there are a ton of areas in LA proper where BUR is significantly more convenient - Hollywood, Los Feliz, Downtown LA, Silverlake, etc... not to mention big areas of wealth like Pasadena and La Canada are right nearby too. I live on the east side and basically everyone I know looks for flights out of BUR before LAX.

If they somehow significantly expanded capcity and extended the runways at BUR (not gonna happen but I can dream) I could see it becoming almost as big as LAX. Something like how EWR is to JFK. It's more convenient to basically everyone in LA county except for the Westside and South Bay.
 
United1
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Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2003 9:21 am

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:13 pm

onwFan wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
onwFan wrote:
If the T9 plan is shelved, then depending on how much UA shrinks, T8 may also be another available option? B6 and HA could have it to themselves and would solve HA’s problem and give B6 the exclusive use of a lot of gates. Also matches with the ~70 daily flights estimate.


T-8 is not a real terminal, its just a concourse. It has no baggage claim, no ticket counters, etc. Its all tied into UA T-7. Plus under T-8 is also where UA ops control center is, and crew base located. Really no where to move them in T-7 as it houses bagroom and mechanical rooms in lower levels.

Lastly T-8 does not have widebody gates(for HA),

Thanks, thats very useful information!

But then does that mean LAWA will be okay leaving a lot of gates empty at T7/8? Unless some Star carriers move into T8...A380 capability will probably no longer be an issue anytime in the near future...


You are assuming UA will shrink a lot at LAX. Careful with your assumptions as Kirby did mention earlier this week LAX will remain a hub and that long haul international service will resume later this year. Also keep in mind UA had fairly high gate utilization for a hub at LAX. Even a fairly significant shrink will still fill T7/T8.
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
IndianicWorld
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Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:26 pm

Hardly a surprise as it can try and take advantage of market opportunities at LAX once COVID moves on, but LGB seemed to be putting up numerous barriers along the way to grow.

I do see LGB as a good opportunity for Breeze, but the reality is that it’s still very unknown what they want to target. What they set out to do may evolve fairly fast, and it seems the pull of the major airports tends to find its way into the thinking of most airlines.
 
LightChop2Chop
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:43 pm

B6 understand VFR markets. LAX and its huge ethnic population could provide a growth opportunity for them. LAX-SAL/GUA/MGA/SJO/BZE all offer opportunities as well as the beach market traffic to SJD etc
 
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lightsaber
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:12 pm

Tack wrote:
heretothere wrote:
Well, based on their moves the last few weeks, I think it’s safe to say B6 is not interested in any partnerships with AA, UA, or AS anytime soon...


I’m thinking it was that AA, UA, or AS aren’t interested in any partnerships anytime soon.

Moving to LAX and expanding SFO, JFK, and EWR will allow JetBlue to partner with more foreign airlines.

This isn't a good situation for any airline. The goal us to make the most of the hand delt.

Effectively, JetBlue gains more than buying Virgin America would have done at far less expense.

SFO expansion is wise, but fewer gates will be available.

As previously noted, JetBlue is adopting a 3 corners strategy post Covid19. With potential A321xLR orders, they can grow from this crisis, long term.

Jumping into LAX big also denies whatever gates were acquired from competition. Sigh... build T0 and the new Star Alliance terminal as jobs programs.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
SFOThinker
Posts: 148
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:19 pm

Is B6 going to be the first nonstop flight from BUF to LAX? I don't recall ever seeing one. If so, congratulations to Buffalo.
 
Bigant0408
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Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:26 am

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:28 pm

SFOThinker wrote:
Is B6 going to be the first nonstop flight from BUF to LAX? I don't recall ever seeing one. If so, congratulations to Buffalo.


This route has been around since the summer of 2016. One of their aims was for Canadian travelers to LA

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/f ... /79677536/
The man who sleeps on the floor doesn’t fall out of bed
 
AMALH747430
Posts: 196
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:49 pm

janders wrote:
Funny take from Crankyflier

“This is stupid,” Snyder told TPG on Thursday. “It’s smart that they’re finally leaving Long Beach. However, instead they’ve decided to go into one of the most competitive airports in the world on routes where they’ll really add little value and I don’t see how this works.”

https://thepointsguy.com/news/jetblue-t ... alignment/

To put it in perspective, 5 airlines already call LAX a hub or focus city. Now add in JetBlue to the mix.


BINGO! While they’re at it, why don’t they turn SEA into a focus city. I mean, everybody else is doing it...

In all seriousness, I don’t know what they’re trying to accomplish these days. DL has already indicated they will defend Boston. We know DL will continue to put up a fight at JFK. UA is more resurgent lately than they have been and they’re not going to land B6 damage their EWR hub.

Now they want to pick a fight at LAX against DL, UA, AA, AS, and most importantly, WN!

I’ll give them BOS, JFK, FLL, and MCO. Those are competitive routes, but B6 operates from a position of strength on the other end. BFL doesn’t have any competition and B6 is very strong in upstate NY.

RNO is already served by UA, AA, and WN
AUS is already served by UA, DL, AA, and WN (focus city to focus city route)
LAS is already served by UA, AA, DL, AS, G4, F9, NK, and WN (focus city to focus city route)
SLC is already served by UA, DL (hub to hub route) AA, and WN
SFO is already served by UA (hub to hub route), DL, AA, AS (focus city to focus city route), and WN.
SEA is already served by UA, DL (hub to hub route), AA (hub to new “int’l gateway” route), and AS (focus city to hub route)
EWR is not only hub to hub for UA but one of their premium transcon routes. They’ll defend their turf provided the economy recovers. If the economy doesn’t recover, B6 will have bigger problems.
Heck, BZN is even competitive with UA, AA, DL, and G4 already on the route!

Besides being hyper competitive routes, B6 won’t be the strongest on either end of these flights.

B6 needs to expand beyond the northeast and Florida but I just don’t think trying to pick a fight in a hyper competitive market with VERY entrenched legacies AND lccs is the way to do it. I don’t know that they’ll have the financial resources fight all these battles (DL has already indicated they’re not pulling back on BOS, UA will defend EWR if the economy recovers) all at once. I’ll give you the legacies and other lccs will only fight back if economic conditions warrant it. However, if air travel doest recover, that will be B6s undoing on their 2020 dartboard follies.

As far as B6 expanding, they missed opportunities in the early-mid 2000s to establish a mid continent base. They could have scooped up F9 while pre merger UA was weak and WN hadn’t entered DEN yet. While not as attractive as WN was already there (but a small player at that time) I think there was an opportunity to go into STL when AA downgauged then dehubbed their operation there. Heck they probably could have moved into MEM or CLE when those cities got dehubbed in the 2010s.
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 280
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 am

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:56 pm

AMALH747430 wrote:
janders wrote:
Funny take from Crankyflier

“This is stupid,” Snyder told TPG on Thursday. “It’s smart that they’re finally leaving Long Beach. However, instead they’ve decided to go into one of the most competitive airports in the world on routes where they’ll really add little value and I don’t see how this works.”

https://thepointsguy.com/news/jetblue-t ... alignment/

To put it in perspective, 5 airlines already call LAX a hub or focus city. Now add in JetBlue to the mix.


BINGO! While they’re at it, why don’t they turn SEA into a focus city. I mean, everybody else is doing it...

In all seriousness, I don’t know what they’re trying to accomplish these days. DL has already indicated they will defend Boston. We know DL will continue to put up a fight at JFK. UA is more resurgent lately than they have been and they’re not going to land B6 damage their EWR hub.

Now they want to pick a fight at LAX against DL, UA, AA, AS, and most importantly, WN!

I’ll give them BOS, JFK, FLL, and MCO. Those are competitive routes, but B6 operates from a position of strength on the other end. BFL doesn’t have any competition and B6 is very strong in upstate NY.

RNO is already served by UA, AA, and WN
AUS is already served by UA, DL, AA, and WN (focus city to focus city route)
LAS is already served by UA, AA, DL, AS, G4, F9, NK, and WN (focus city to focus city route)
SLC is already served by UA, DL (hub to hub route) AA, and WN
SFO is already served by UA (hub to hub route), DL, AA, AS (focus city to focus city route), and WN.
SEA is already served by UA, DL (hub to hub route), AA (hub to new “int’l gateway” route), and AS (focus city to hub route)
EWR is not only hub to hub for UA but one of their premium transcon routes. They’ll defend their turf provided the economy recovers. If the economy doesn’t recover, B6 will have bigger problems.
Heck, BZN is even competitive with UA, AA, DL, and G4 already on the route!

Besides being hyper competitive routes, B6 won’t be the strongest on either end of these flights.

B6 needs to expand beyond the northeast and Florida but I just don’t think trying to pick a fight in a hyper competitive market with VERY entrenched legacies AND lccs is the way to do it. I don’t know that they’ll have the financial resources fight all these battles (DL has already indicated they’re not pulling back on BOS, UA will defend EWR if the economy recovers) all at once. I’ll give you the legacies and other lccs will only fight back if economic conditions warrant it. However, if air travel doest recover, that will be B6s undoing on their 2020 dartboard follies.

As far as B6 expanding, they missed opportunities in the early-mid 2000s to establish a mid continent base. They could have scooped up F9 while pre merger UA was weak and WN hadn’t entered DEN yet. While not as attractive as WN was already there (but a small player at that time) I think there was an opportunity to go into STL when AA downgauged then dehubbed their operation there. Heck they probably could have moved into MEM or CLE when those cities got dehubbed in the 2010s.


I imagine the thinking must be similar to what we're seeing with NK and F9 starting all of these new routes recently. They've got planes they still need to pay for and there's gate space that wasn't there in the past. Not the ideal situation for growth, I'd agree, but it seems like there's no way to avoid taking risks right now.
 
aerace
Posts: 99
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:57 pm

Considering the recent buildup, I wouldn’t be surprised to see B6 give PHL a shot from LAX. With just AA as the only legacy (and NK/F9 with ULCC redeyes), I think they could easily slide in where VX/AS once stood. But I don’t think this would happen until the maintained some footing with the Florida/SJU routes.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5226
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 3:08 pm

AMALH747430 wrote:
janders wrote:
Funny take from Crankyflier

“This is stupid,” Snyder told TPG on Thursday. “It’s smart that they’re finally leaving Long Beach. However, instead they’ve decided to go into one of the most competitive airports in the world on routes where they’ll really add little value and I don’t see how this works.”

https://thepointsguy.com/news/jetblue-t ... alignment/

To put it in perspective, 5 airlines already call LAX a hub or focus city. Now add in JetBlue to the mix.


BINGO! While they’re at it, why don’t they turn SEA into a focus city. I mean, everybody else is doing it...

In all seriousness, I don’t know what they’re trying to accomplish these days. DL has already indicated they will defend Boston. We know DL will continue to put up a fight at JFK. UA is more resurgent lately than they have been and they’re not going to land B6 damage their EWR hub.

Now they want to pick a fight at LAX against DL, UA, AA, AS, and most importantly, WN!

I’ll give them BOS, JFK, FLL, and MCO. Those are competitive routes, but B6 operates from a position of strength on the other end. BFL doesn’t have any competition and B6 is very strong in upstate NY.

RNO is already served by UA, AA, and WN
AUS is already served by UA, DL, AA, and WN (focus city to focus city route)
LAS is already served by UA, AA, DL, AS, G4, F9, NK, and WN (focus city to focus city route)
SLC is already served by UA, DL (hub to hub route) AA, and WN
SFO is already served by UA (hub to hub route), DL, AA, AS (focus city to focus city route), and WN.
SEA is already served by UA, DL (hub to hub route), AA (hub to new “int’l gateway” route), and AS (focus city to hub route)
EWR is not only hub to hub for UA but one of their premium transcon routes. They’ll defend their turf provided the economy recovers. If the economy doesn’t recover, B6 will have bigger problems.
Heck, BZN is even competitive with UA, AA, DL, and G4 already on the route!

Besides being hyper competitive routes, B6 won’t be the strongest on either end of these flights.

B6 needs to expand beyond the northeast and Florida but I just don’t think trying to pick a fight in a hyper competitive market with VERY entrenched legacies AND lccs is the way to do it. I don’t know that they’ll have the financial resources fight all these battles (DL has already indicated they’re not pulling back on BOS, UA will defend EWR if the economy recovers) all at once. I’ll give you the legacies and other lccs will only fight back if economic conditions warrant it. However, if air travel doest recover, that will be B6s undoing on their 2020 dartboard follies.

As far as B6 expanding, they missed opportunities in the early-mid 2000s to establish a mid continent base. They could have scooped up F9 while pre merger UA was weak and WN hadn’t entered DEN yet. While not as attractive as WN was already there (but a small player at that time) I think there was an opportunity to go into STL when AA downgauged then dehubbed their operation there. Heck they probably could have moved into MEM or CLE when those cities got dehubbed in the 2010s.


You simply don’t get it. B6 has been wanting to expand in LAX for a long time. And now due to legacy shrinkage, they finally get to do it. Just as they are doing in EWR/JFK, gaining extra gates at LAX adds value to a carrier like JetBlue. Think about how much AS paid for VX for 7 gates at SFO, 4 gate as LAX and some slots. JetBlue will probably be adding more than 4 gates at LAX and getting the west coast base it needs for very little.

Out of 70 flights, 30+ of which will probably be mint transcon or HI. All stuff they will print money on. Another 5 to 10 will be on non-mint transcon that are too thin and low yielding for legacies to attempt. They generally do pretty well on stuff like BUF-LAX. Shouldn’t be any different for stuff like BDL/PIT/RSW/HPN-LAX. Another 5 to 10 will be VFR or pure leisure flights to Mexican resorts and Central America. AS is the biggest US carrier to these markets. These are the type of markets JetBlue do well on. So after you add these altogether, they really are only planning about 20 to 25 flights for west coast and middle of the country. These routes will probably lose money, but they are needed for network reasons and to help support their mint franchise. The added profits for mint and the benefit to rest of their network more than justifies maintaining token presence to all the important west coast market.

I bet you WN will be the least affected by B6’s entrance.
 
Iggy500
Posts: 81
Joined: Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:40 pm

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 3:12 pm

HNLSLCPDX wrote:
I definitely think B6 has an opportunity to capture the niche market that Virgin America offered but I think the timing right now to do it is bad because they need more places from LAX. I think adding more places from LAX such as ATL, Hawaii, TPA, BNA, PVR, and SJD could definitely help though. Crazy as it sounds I still believe that B6 could add some p2p from SFO as well to capture that niche market that VX has at SFO and to grow the West Coast. Would love to see B6 do SFO-SAN/LAS/SLC/AUS/BZN.


I have to agree with you here. LAX-ATL could happen since WN will exit the market later this year, and Mint could land in ATL as well. Also, B6 adding LAX-Hawaii could help boost their partnership with HA. This would easily allow connections to Asia and beyond. As for the other cities you mentioned from LAX, I could also see happening. LGB treated B6 like garbage, so B6 could actually become a big carrier in LAX now that they can start international flying from the L.A area.

I also agree with what you said about SFO. It would be the perfect opportunity for B6 to significantly grow in the West Coast. AS would be jealous of this, especially since they stole VX from B6.
 
hiflyeras
Posts: 2258
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:48 pm

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 3:59 pm

Do people think that B6 is just going to coast into all these routes without a response from the big 4 and AS? The last thing LAX needs is someone cutting up the pie even smaller...but then maybe that's why this won't be such a big deal. No one dominates as it is so their slice just gets a little bit smaller. Maybe that's B6's hope...they won't care (too much). And in these times of reduced capacity that might not be a bad thing to not have to up capacity in response. But no one likes to lose market share and if they start flying also to Hawaii from LAX then the war is on.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1023
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:12 pm

AMALH747430 wrote:
janders wrote:
Funny take from Crankyflier

“This is stupid,” Snyder told TPG on Thursday. “It’s smart that they’re finally leaving Long Beach. However, instead they’ve decided to go into one of the most competitive airports in the world on routes where they’ll really add little value and I don’t see how this works.”

https://thepointsguy.com/news/jetblue-t ... alignment/

To put it in perspective, 5 airlines already call LAX a hub or focus city. Now add in JetBlue to the mix.


BINGO! While they’re at it, why don’t they turn SEA into a focus city. I mean, everybody else is doing it...

In all seriousness, I don’t know what they’re trying to accomplish these days. DL has already indicated they will defend Boston. We know DL will continue to put up a fight at JFK. UA is more resurgent lately than they have been and they’re not going to land B6 damage their EWR hub.

Now they want to pick a fight at LAX against DL, UA, AA, AS, and most importantly, WN!

I’ll give them BOS, JFK, FLL, and MCO. Those are competitive routes, but B6 operates from a position of strength on the other end. BFL doesn’t have any competition and B6 is very strong in upstate NY.

RNO is already served by UA, AA, and WN
AUS is already served by UA, DL, AA, and WN (focus city to focus city route)
LAS is already served by UA, AA, DL, AS, G4, F9, NK, and WN (focus city to focus city route)
SLC is already served by UA, DL (hub to hub route) AA, and WN
SFO is already served by UA (hub to hub route), DL, AA, AS (focus city to focus city route), and WN.
SEA is already served by UA, DL (hub to hub route), AA (hub to new “int’l gateway” route), and AS (focus city to hub route)
EWR is not only hub to hub for UA but one of their premium transcon routes. They’ll defend their turf provided the economy recovers. If the economy doesn’t recover, B6 will have bigger problems.
Heck, BZN is even competitive with UA, AA, DL, and G4 already on the route!

Besides being hyper competitive routes, B6 won’t be the strongest on either end of these flights.

B6 needs to expand beyond the northeast and Florida but I just don’t think trying to pick a fight in a hyper competitive market with VERY entrenched legacies AND lccs is the way to do it. I don’t know that they’ll have the financial resources fight all these battles (DL has already indicated they’re not pulling back on BOS, UA will defend EWR if the economy recovers) all at once. I’ll give you the legacies and other lccs will only fight back if economic conditions warrant it. However, if air travel doest recover, that will be B6s undoing on their 2020 dartboard follies.

As far as B6 expanding, they missed opportunities in the early-mid 2000s to establish a mid continent base. They could have scooped up F9 while pre merger UA was weak and WN hadn’t entered DEN yet. While not as attractive as WN was already there (but a small player at that time) I think there was an opportunity to go into STL when AA downgauged then dehubbed their operation there. Heck they probably could have moved into MEM or CLE when those cities got dehubbed in the 2010s.

I agree for the most part. However, B6 seems intent on being a player on the West Coast. Seeing as LGB had its host of issues, LAX makes the most sense operationally (they already have a base in the LA Basin). I believe Los Angeles is also already their strongest West Coast market today. They really had no other option really for a strong WC city. Where else would they go? I liken this to AA realizing that TPAC from LAX was no longer viable and thus packing it up to SEA. Is it going to be easy? Does it seem necessarily practical? No. But if they want that presence, it was the option of least resistance going forward.
 
HNLSLCPDX
Posts: 215
Joined: Sun Nov 01, 2015 5:40 pm

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:17 pm

Agree. If B6 goes into Hawaii I think the codeshare agreement with HA is toast. Imagine AA, AS, DL, HA, SY, UA, and WN all on that, add B6 and full on Hawaii fare war.

Would be nice to see B6 go into Central America from LAX and add GUA, SAL, and SJO. They would have O&D to help as well as some connecting options now.
 
gwrudolph
Posts: 428
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2008 3:46 pm

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:39 pm

hiflyeras wrote:
Do people think that B6 is just going to coast into all these routes without a response from the big 4 and AS? The last thing LAX needs is someone cutting up the pie even smaller...but then maybe that's why this won't be such a big deal. No one dominates as it is so their slice just gets a little bit smaller. Maybe that's B6's hope...they won't care (too much). And in these times of reduced capacity that might not be a bad thing to not have to up capacity in response. But no one likes to lose market share and if they start flying also to Hawaii from LAX then the war is on.


While I don’t believe AA or UA would sit idle and watch B6 take over coast-to-Coast or LAX to their hub routes, if this COVID situation continues to drag on, I could see one or both in desperation conceding on LAX as a hub, relegating it to a very large line station with flights to hubs only. UA has everything it needs up in SFO and AA has most of what it needs in PHX. Sure PHX won’t carry HND, PVG, SYD, and/or significant Hawaii operations, but those are all so crowded I can’t imagine anyone was making much on them anyway. If you get desperate, best to hunker down and concentrate your resources where you have strength.

IMO, DL on the other hand can’t afford to take a similar strategy with LAX if they eventually get desperate given that SEA isn’t really as good an alternative as SFO and PHX are to UA and AA. They’ll have to stick it out.
 
Boston757
Posts: 102
Joined: Mon Aug 31, 2015 5:39 pm

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:46 pm

Out of curiosity, why would someone make a statement of such about American Airlines “deserving to fail”. What did they do to you to hate them so much..
 
tzadik
Posts: 145
Joined: Tue Dec 06, 2005 2:08 am

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:58 pm

LAXintl wrote:
AA currently has preferential use of 4 gates in T-5 (5th one once terminal gate reconfiguration is finished) as part of proprietary investments in its master lease that runs till 2039.
AA may also access up to 5 other gates on common use basis, plus a common use bus gate in T-5. They have exclusive use of ~40,000sq/ft office/facility space in T5 aswell.


What is NK's current lease situation at LAX for their 3 gates? It seems like most are convinced NK is just gonna pack up and let B6 move in. Last I checked NK was a larger carrier at LAX than B6.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5226
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:58 pm

hiflyeras wrote:
Do people think that B6 is just going to coast into all these routes without a response from the big 4 and AS? The last thing LAX needs is someone cutting up the pie even smaller...but then maybe that's why this won't be such a big deal. No one dominates as it is so their slice just gets a little bit smaller. Maybe that's B6's hope...they won't care (too much). And in these times of reduced capacity that might not be a bad thing to not have to up capacity in response. But no one likes to lose market share and if they start flying also to Hawaii from LAX then the war is on.


Well they haven't added anything yet. All their moves are stuff they already compete with other carriers on. They actually cut PDX.

As for the stuff they are likely to add flights to to, it's mostly existing routes and stuff without strong big 4 competitions. The only routes I see them adding a lot that would draw attention is HI or a lot more frequencies to SFO and LAS. The former might hurt their relation with HA. They are already going to be flying the latter 2. I don't know really what legacy retaliations will look like.

I guess if they add flight to PVR/SJD/MZT, that would trigger AS. But at this point, B6 is really not afraid of what AS might do.

Aside from that, I could only see them getting retaliated for adding PHX or DEN.

tzadik wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
AA currently has preferential use of 4 gates in T-5 (5th one once terminal gate reconfiguration is finished) as part of proprietary investments in its master lease that runs till 2039.
AA may also access up to 5 other gates on common use basis, plus a common use bus gate in T-5. They have exclusive use of ~40,000sq/ft office/facility space in T5 aswell.


What is NK's current lease situation at LAX for their 3 gates? It seems like most are convinced NK is just gonna pack up and let B6 move in. Last I checked NK was a larger carrier at LAX than B6.

B6 is bigger now.
 
tzadik
Posts: 145
Joined: Tue Dec 06, 2005 2:08 am

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:04 pm

tphuang wrote:
B6 is bigger now.


Not without the gates their not and I'd assume NK isn't just going to roll over and leave.

I believe NK serves the following cities from LAX... LAS, OAK, DEN, DFW, IAH, AUS, BNA, ORD, DTW, CLE, PIT, BWI, PHL, MCO, FLL, TPA, MSY.
 
RobertS975
Posts: 968
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2005 2:17 am

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:12 pm

I guess they planned something like this at LGB before FIS deal went up in smokes. Probably add some Mexican resorts along with some Central American cities along with transcon to Eastern coast destinations like BDL/PVD/RSW/HPN.[/quote]


Just curious why you see these heretofore non-existent routes coming to life? RSW-LAX would be a dream come true for me... right now we either connect or drive 2 1/2 hours to TPA for DL's nonstop.

Could someone tell me what the average passenger count was between RSW and LAX before everything collapsed?
Last edited by RobertS975 on Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5226
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:16 pm

tzadik wrote:
tphuang wrote:
B6 is bigger now.


Not without the gates their not and I'd assume NK isn't just going to roll over and leave.

I believe NK serves the following cities from LAX... LAS, OAK, DEN, DFW, IAH, AUS, BNA, ORD, DTW, CLE, PIT, BWI, PHL, MCO, FLL, TPA, MSY.

They just got another gate and getting another one on top of that. The CUTE gates are wide open right now.

They are up to 32 flights a day with this move. NK have been around 26. If you want to got by ASM, the majority of their flights are transcon flights, which have high ASM vs the midcon stuff that NK does.

RobertS975 wrote:
Just curious why you see these heretofore non-existent routes coming to life? RSW-LAX would be a dream come true for me... right now we either connect or drive 2 1/2 hours to TPA for DL's nonstop.

well, they've made a lot of long thin transcon routes work that legacies simply don't try like BUF-LAX, JFK-RNO/ONT/PSP/ABQ. It's just that their model is ideally suited for this kind of stuff.
 
Planeboy17
Posts: 438
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:18 am

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:25 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
avi8 wrote:
Pretty sure JetBlue will eventually take a slice of the LAX-Mexico/Central America market if they plan to get to 70 daily flights.

Seems reasonable to assume so. I'd guess 5 to 10 flights to central america. I think they will do well to GUA/SAL/SJO. Not sure about Mexican markets though. Those are notoriously tough given Mexican ULCC pressure.

MAH4546 wrote:

With AA likely moving all Eagle operations to T5, and sutting down the Nest, they need those gates more than before. AA has not detailed any plans to cut LAX domestic flying yet (it will inevitably happen, but unlikely to be a massive downsize), just what amounts to four daily long-haul flights.

JetBlue is only in T5 temporarily as you alluded to. The space will be there, but nobody is being evicted.


All indications are that JetBlue is not moving out of T5 anytime soon. AA will shrink big time at LAX. We will see what happens to their prior T4/T5 plans. They don't exactly have $1.6 billion to throw around right now. And if they do, they'd rather spend it on DFW and CLT than LAX. Either JetBlue is overly optimistic here about getting additional gates at 5 or LAWA has given them indication that they will get necessary gates (around 8 or 9 at least) if they continue to grow.

CobaltScar wrote:
I can't get a straight answer, will LGB continue to be a blue city or will it have zero flights going forward?

edit: well last day of operations at LGB is early Oct so I guess that means ZERO flights? sad, did not see that coming. Why keep token flights out of BUR and ONT but not LGB?

Pretty simple. BUR always performed better to JFK. And even ONT performed better than LGB by last summer to JFK. They can keep the 2x all-core A321N to BUR and 2x A320 to ONT now and pile the rest of capacity to LAX.

Over the next couople of years, I think you will see something like 15 to 16 flights a day from JFK/EWR and LAX.


There you go again with baseless assumptions passing them off as fact. AA will shrink, it will remain LAX’s single largest carrier, but will absolutely adjust capacity. It will also work to consolidate all flying into T4 and T5 and close the Eagle’s Nest. And there has been zero indications so far regarding terminal renovation changes. If anything, it now becomes a better time than ever to renovate, especially with an emptier terminal meaning renovations can be done more cheaply and efficiently.

There is no indication that JetBlue is in T5 for the long-haul whatsoever. JetBlue will relocate to the Midfield Concourse in all likelihood.

I enjoy how you chide someone for making assumptions and respond to their assumptions with your own assumptions.
Classic.
 
LAXBUR
Posts: 412
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:33 pm

Iggy500 wrote:
HNLSLCPDX wrote:
I definitely think B6 has an opportunity to capture the niche market that Virgin America offered but I think the timing right now to do it is bad because they need more places from LAX. I think adding more places from LAX such as ATL, Hawaii, TPA, BNA, PVR, and SJD could definitely help though. Crazy as it sounds I still believe that B6 could add some p2p from SFO as well to capture that niche market that VX has at SFO and to grow the West Coast. Would love to see B6 do SFO-SAN/LAS/SLC/AUS/BZN.


I have to agree with you here. LAX-ATL could happen since WN will exit the market later this year, and Mint could land in ATL as well. Also, B6 adding LAX-Hawaii could help boost their partnership with HA. This would easily allow connections to Asia and beyond. As for the other cities you mentioned from LAX, I could also see happening. LGB treated B6 like garbage, so B6 could actually become a big carrier in LAX now that they can start international flying from the L.A area.

I also agree with what you said about SFO. It would be the perfect opportunity for B6 to significantly grow in the West Coast. AS would be jealous of this, especially since they stole VX from B6.


Completely forgot Alaska execs came in with rifles on horses and stole all those VX planes.

Also, I sincerely hope B6 isn’t making business decisions based on making another airline “jealous”. People are really overstating the impact of VX passengers. If they were so important VX would still be around. Oh, right....Alaska stole them. And look at the state of Virgin airline brands around the world.

JetBlue has a good product and I’m sure they’ll be fine with the to LAX. But they don’t have infinite cash to build up both LAX and SFO. It isn’t like there’s not a fortress hub for another airline in SFO. Haha. At the moment their move to LAX isn’t really stepping on Alaska’s toes anymore than before. They even cut a PNW route with the move. Sounds like they’re making their own moves rather than trying to squeeze Alaska’s West Coast route structure.
 
ScottB
Posts: 6996
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:34 pm

F27500 wrote:
Good .. screw Long Beach. All they did was mess with B6 over the years ... the stupid fines over "missed curfew", etc .. Glad B6 is finally saying a big 'Bite Me" to LGB .. and going someplace where they won;t be penalized by an airport administration that fights against their tenants ... and customers.


Given the evolution of JetBlue's business and the apparent availability of gates at LAX post-Covid, this would have happened regardless of whether Long Beach built an FIS at the airport or enforced the curfew. JetBlue's business model isn't about alternate airports and single-class low-fare service anymore. Why do you think they were making noise about going to LHR? Why do you think LAX gets Mint service while LGB doesn't? Does anyone here really think that, regardless of the state of the relationship between B6 and Long Beach, that the airline wouldn't have jumped on an opportunity at LAX?

The animus between B6 and Long Beach makes it easy to entirely walk away from the airport but the real difference probably would have been a token flight or two to JFK/BOS (or maybe SLC) versus the complete pullout we're seeing. With adequate real estate having become available at LAX, it makes sense to chase the yields and passengers at LAX even if operating costs are somewhat higher. If B6 had been successful in buying VX, the LGB focus city would have been gone, too.

Brickell305 wrote:
However, B6 seems intent on being a player on the West Coast. Seeing as LGB had its host of issues, LAX makes the most sense operationally (they already have a base in the LA Basin). I believe Los Angeles is also already their strongest West Coast market today. They really had no other option really for a strong WC city.


Even with the move of the LGB resources to LAX, I don't see how this makes them a relevant player for the local market. They're going to be very thin in the West Coast regional markets which are important for retaining customer loyalty, and they'll only serve four of the top ten domestic markets from L.A. (and nine of the top twenty). Maybe it works out for them if one or more of the legacy carriers abandons LAX as a hub.

gwrudolph wrote:
AA has most of what it needs in PHX. Sure PHX won’t carry HND, PVG, SYD, and/or significant Hawaii operations, but those are all so crowded I can’t imagine anyone was making much on them anyway. If you get desperate, best to hunker down and concentrate your resources where you have strength.


AA is not in a position of strength at PHX. They're not the leading carrier for O&D traffic at PHX and they're basically relying on low-yielding connections over the airport.
 
tzadik
Posts: 145
Joined: Tue Dec 06, 2005 2:08 am

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:35 pm

tphuang wrote:
They just got another gate and getting another one on top of that. The CUTE gates are wide open right now.

They are up to 32 flights a day with this move. NK have been around 26. If you want to got by ASM, the majority of their flights are transcon flights, which have high ASM vs the midcon stuff that NK does.


Just a few posts ago you said B6 had 3 gates and the use of some CUTEs. 15 hours later they've acquired one more with another on the way? That was fast.

Well it would appear that B6 wants in on the midcon game, no?
 
MDGLongBeach
Posts: 212
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 6:03 pm

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:53 pm

JetBlue established itself at Long Beach in the SoCal market, and a lot of it's customers used the airline because of the LGB convenience. B6, being a new player in the LAX world, is going to have a very hard time competing with long time and well established airlines like ASA, US3 etc considering B6 no longer has the upper edge on convenience, as is now mixing itself into a pool with lots of other airlines providing (arguably) a little bit better of a service. All I've seen on LGB's socials, private groups, and some public domains, is people complaining they'll never fly B6 again now that they don't fly out of LGB. I'm not necessarily saying that it was a bad business decision in a way, but now B6 has a hole to dig themselves out of, and quite honestly I don't see them lasting at LAX very long unless they can manage a merge with AS.

I agree that B6, as many people here would agree, would've been in a better spot having merged with VX. Now they've been more or less forced to throw themselves into a difficult market with no real local support or dedicated customer base. AS could use this opportunity to merge with B6 and expand their east coast network to compliment their strong west coast network .
 
tphuang
Posts: 5226
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:05 pm

tzadik wrote:
tphuang wrote:
They just got another gate and getting another one on top of that. The CUTE gates are wide open right now.

They are up to 32 flights a day with this move. NK have been around 26. If you want to got by ASM, the majority of their flights are transcon flights, which have high ASM vs the midcon stuff that NK does.


Just a few posts ago you said B6 had 3 gates and the use of some CUTEs. 15 hours later they've acquired one more with another on the way? That was fast.

Well it would appear that B6 wants in on the midcon game, no?


unlikely. The midcon stuff is more well served. It's also important to stay away from markets where WN is strong in. If they want to not get hammered, they'd need to add stuff to east coast where they have some presence and brand recognition.

ScottB wrote:
Even with the move of the LGB resources to LAX, I don't see how this makes them a relevant player for the local market. They're going to be very thin in the West Coast regional markets which are important for retaining customer loyalty, and they'll only serve four of the top ten domestic markets from L.A. (and nine of the top twenty). Maybe it works out for them if one or more of the legacy carriers abandons LAX as a hub..

I don't think anyone expects them to be as important as big 4 in LA Area. But they do have an opportunity to be more relevant than they are now. I'm sure there are many network benefits to having greater presence in LAX. Maybe it will help them get more corporate contracts on these important mint transcon routes. And there is also the possibility of them of getting more of the old VX crowd.

But they have to put a real effort here. They need to have as many mint, newly configured A321Ns and A220 over here as possible. They need a product differentiator if they want to establish themselves. And they have to eventually at least service places like PHX and DEN a couple times a day.
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 727
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:08 pm

So those people at Long Beach who will "never" fly B6 again. Hmm ok. So they'd rather connect three times on Southwest out of LGB or sit with no leg room, no TVs, no Wifi on a transcon out of LAX instead? Probably at a higher price too. They are welcome to it, I'm sure many So. Cal people will LOVE the far superior coach and MINT experience on B6 transcons than the likes of AA or AS.

B6 is going to succeed at LAX for the same reasons it does at other big airports. Take a look inside their planes and compare them to others. I know who i'd rather be taking to Hawaii or the east coast out of LAX, and its not inside a SWA cabin.

On a related note, these big moves at EWR and LAX really do put the finishing moves on Alaska's transcon game.

And, when it happens and you know it will, when they launch Hawaii out of LAX with MINT service, its going to transform the Hawaii market incredibly.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3326
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:19 pm

aerace wrote:
Considering the recent buildup, I wouldn’t be surprised to see B6 give PHL a shot from LAX. With just AA as the only legacy (and NK/F9 with ULCC redeyes), I think they could easily slide in where VX/AS once stood. But I don’t think this would happen until the maintained some footing with the Florida/SJU routes.


I agree. I think PHL transcon service suffers due to a combination of its location between D.C. and NYC, and AA's dominance in PHL keeping other legacies small there. I think B6 would have a chance at stealing some decently valuable traffic from AA given their better product (particularly if Mint came into play). Something like 4x daily on LAX-PHL seems to me like it could work for B6. Additionally, I think the ULCCs would be less likely to succeed against B6 in a market like LAX-PHL than in PHL-Florida, where the product difference doesn't matter so much due to a much shorter flight. I'm not sure if B6 will be able to stick it out in PHL-Florida given the massive capacity adds by everyone, but either way I think LAX-PHL could be worth trying if they can find one or two Mint frames to allocate to it.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
stevemat11
Posts: 17
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2012 1:20 pm

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:25 pm

I remember seeing the door to the FIS deplaning B6 (Maybe 55A or 59 I forget) in T5 (LAX). Are all gates capable of international arrivals in T5 if B6 expands to Mexico & Central America? Is the FIS located in T5 or do the pax wind up in TBIT via hidden walkways?
 
ryby92
Posts: 39
Joined: Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:34 pm

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:29 pm

FSDan wrote:
aerace wrote:
Considering the recent buildup, I wouldn’t be surprised to see B6 give PHL a shot from LAX. With just AA as the only legacy (and NK/F9 with ULCC redeyes), I think they could easily slide in where VX/AS once stood. But I don’t think this would happen until the maintained some footing with the Florida/SJU routes.


I agree. I think PHL transcon service suffers due to a combination of its location between D.C. and NYC, and AA's dominance in PHL keeping other legacies small there. I think B6 would have a chance at stealing some decently valuable traffic from AA given their better product (particularly if Mint came into play). Something like 4x daily on LAX-PHL seems to me like it could work for B6. Additionally, I think the ULCCs would be less likely to succeed against B6 in a market like LAX-PHL than in PHL-Florida, where the product difference doesn't matter so much due to a much shorter flight. I'm not sure if B6 will be able to stick it out in PHL-Florida given the massive capacity adds by everyone, but either way I think LAX-PHL could be worth trying if they can find one or two Mint frames to allocate to it.


You must assume that AA would sit idly and do absolutely nothing to defend a major hub such as PHL.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3326
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:30 pm

Regarding LGB, I think WN could reasonably run an operation of ~25x daily flights from there (SMF, OAK/SFO/SJC, LAS, PHX, DEN, maybe HNL or OGG). Breeze does seem like a possibility given their intent to operate from secondary airports. And this is probably unlikely, but to me G4 seems like a better fit for LGB than for LAX (although I think I remember hearing that the slot requirements at LGB wouldn't work well for them). I expect DL will keep their SLC-LGB service going, free from direct competition now, and AA will probably keep PHX-LGB going unless they significantly downsize PHX or unless WN comes in and makes it unprofitable for them. I could see AS returning to LGB, but I could also see them keeping things simpler and staying out. I don't know what HA will do now that they won't be getting any connections from B6 at LGB. If WN were to enter LGB-Hawai'i, that might push them out.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
tzadik
Posts: 145
Joined: Tue Dec 06, 2005 2:08 am

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:31 pm

tphuang wrote:
unlikely. The midcon stuff is more well served. It's also important to stay away from markets where WN is strong in. If they want to not get hammered, they'd need to add stuff to east coast where they have some presence and brand recognition.


Well I'd definitely like to hear what LAXIntl has to say with regards to NK's lease situation at T5. They have a decent presence and a profitable operation at LAX and don't imagine will just roll over and leave because B6 wants to play with the big boys all of the sudden. If incentivized to move to MSC I'm sure they will as less desirable gates suits the business model but I don't imagine they'll just get booted from T5 because another small presence airline said so. Time will tell.
Last edited by tzadik on Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
FSDan
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:32 pm

ryby92 wrote:
FSDan wrote:
aerace wrote:
Considering the recent buildup, I wouldn’t be surprised to see B6 give PHL a shot from LAX. With just AA as the only legacy (and NK/F9 with ULCC redeyes), I think they could easily slide in where VX/AS once stood. But I don’t think this would happen until the maintained some footing with the Florida/SJU routes.


I agree. I think PHL transcon service suffers due to a combination of its location between D.C. and NYC, and AA's dominance in PHL keeping other legacies small there. I think B6 would have a chance at stealing some decently valuable traffic from AA given their better product (particularly if Mint came into play). Something like 4x daily on LAX-PHL seems to me like it could work for B6. Additionally, I think the ULCCs would be less likely to succeed against B6 in a market like LAX-PHL than in PHL-Florida, where the product difference doesn't matter so much due to a much shorter flight. I'm not sure if B6 will be able to stick it out in PHL-Florida given the massive capacity adds by everyone, but either way I think LAX-PHL could be worth trying if they can find one or two Mint frames to allocate to it.


You must assume that AA would sit idly and do absolutely nothing to defend a major hub such as PHL.


No, I'm assuming that some people might continue to choose B6 even with an AA competitive response due to the PTVs, Mint service (if it was deployed on the route), etc.
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FSDan
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:35 pm

stevemat11 wrote:
I remember seeing the door to the FIS deplaning B6 (Maybe 55A or 59 I forget) in T5 (LAX). Are all gates capable of international arrivals in T5 if B6 expands to Mexico & Central America? Is the FIS located in T5 or do the pax wind up in TBIT via hidden walkways?


Only the gates near the end of the terminal are connected to the sterile corridor (I want to say there are 4 or 5 of them...). I think the FIS is in T5 itself, but that one was closed after DL moved over to T2-T3. I assume it could be reopened if needed, although someone like LAXintl is likely to have much better info on that.
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ryby92
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:41 pm

FSDan wrote:
ryby92 wrote:
FSDan wrote:

I agree. I think PHL transcon service suffers due to a combination of its location between D.C. and NYC, and AA's dominance in PHL keeping other legacies small there. I think B6 would have a chance at stealing some decently valuable traffic from AA given their better product (particularly if Mint came into play). Something like 4x daily on LAX-PHL seems to me like it could work for B6. Additionally, I think the ULCCs would be less likely to succeed against B6 in a market like LAX-PHL than in PHL-Florida, where the product difference doesn't matter so much due to a much shorter flight. I'm not sure if B6 will be able to stick it out in PHL-Florida given the massive capacity adds by everyone, but either way I think LAX-PHL could be worth trying if they can find one or two Mint frames to allocate to it.


You must assume that AA would sit idly and do absolutely nothing to defend a major hub such as PHL.


No, I'm assuming that some people might continue to choose B6 even with an AA competitive response due to the PTVs, Mint service (if it was deployed on the route), etc.


Nothing to stop AA from throwing in a 787 ( plenty will be available out of PHL) even if for repositioning purposes to compete or even 777 widebody to Hawaii to do the same for west coast. Remember they operated A332 LAX-PHL in like manner previously. Need to recognize times are changing and not to automatically assume that old playbook is still in use.
 
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airportugal310
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:42 pm

FSDan wrote:
Regarding LGB, I think WN could reasonably run an operation of ~25x daily flights from there (SMF, OAK/SFO/SJC, LAS, PHX, DEN, maybe HNL or OGG). Breeze does seem like a possibility given their intent to operate from secondary airports. And this is probably unlikely, but to me G4 seems like a better fit for LGB than for LAX (although I think I remember hearing that the slot requirements at LGB wouldn't work well for them). I expect DL will keep their SLC-LGB service going, free from direct competition now, and AA will probably keep PHX-LGB going unless they significantly downsize PHX or unless WN comes in and makes it unprofitable for them. I could see AS returning to LGB, but I could also see them keeping things simpler and staying out. I don't know what HA will do now that they won't be getting any connections from B6 at LGB. If WN were to enter LGB-Hawai'i, that might push them out.


HA was not connecting anyone at LGB onward. The flight arrived usually as BOS and JFK were boarding, which were the only true connections that could have happened anyways...(I took it about 2-3x a month to/from HNL)

That flight was/is pure O&D, and B6 leaving the market only changes the fact that HA will likely need a new ground handler. Nothing more, nothing less
“They bought their tickets, they knew what they were getting into. I say, let 'em crash.”
 
MDGLongBeach
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:46 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
So those people at Long Beach who will "never" fly B6 again. Hmm ok. So they'd rather connect three times on Southwest out of LGB or sit with no leg room, no TVs, no Wifi on a transcon out of LAX instead? Probably at a higher price too. They are welcome to it, I'm sure many So. Cal people will LOVE the far superior coach and MINT experience on B6 transcons than the likes of AA or AS.

B6 is going to succeed at LAX for the same reasons it does at other big airports. Take a look inside their planes and compare them to others. I know who i'd rather be taking to Hawaii or the east coast out of LAX, and its not inside a SWA cabin.

On a related note, these big moves at EWR and LAX really do put the finishing moves on Alaska's transcon game.

And, when it happens and you know it will, when they launch Hawaii out of LAX with MINT service, its going to transform the Hawaii market incredibly.


First, it's important to understand the LGB market. LGB hosts a large percentage of corporate traffic passengers. Leisure isn't as large in terms of market share at LGB as it is at SNA for example. This is why we didn't see G4, and F9 succeed here. It's also why B6, in the end, only has flights to places like SLC (for connecting traffic), SEA, SFO, BOS/JFK. All of these cities are of interest to corporate passengers. Other passengers were LGB locals, and the few who knew of the airports existence from places elsewhere. B6's passenger-base here at LGB was mostly reliant on the fact that the airline was a well developed, LGB-based airline. I don't know anyone here that would go out of their way to fly on B6 again just for the sake of flying on JetBlue. The problem with B6 at LAX is that they now have to establish themselves again at what is a VERY competitive airport, with no routes that aren't flown already by at least 3 other carriers, all a recipe for failure. Southwest is about to have a 17 slot opening to have their hand in, and it's expected that they'll add frequency to some of the same regions that B6 flew to up until the end. The only circumstance I can see B6 having any relevance to LGB passengers is that some corporate travelers who can't stand an all economy setup for a couple hour flight with a lack of inflight services, may sacrifice a 45 minute trip to LAX for premium services. But, that's not convenient for them, so Southwest most likely will be able to keep that market in check here. I know others, myself included, even with a lack of premium services offered here at LGB with B6's impending departure, would still rather (in the case WN offers similar flights that B6 did) sacrifice a bit of personal comfort for a couple of hours for the advantage of arriving back after a trip to an airport that won't stress me out.
 
catiii
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:56 pm

AMALH747430 wrote:

In all seriousness, I don’t know what they’re trying to accomplish these days. DL has already indicated they will defend Boston. We know DL will continue to put up a fight at JFK. UA is more resurgent lately than they have been and they’re not going to land B6 damage their EWR hub.

Now they want to pick a fight at LAX against DL, UA, AA, AS, and most importantly, WN!

I’ll give them BOS, JFK, FLL, and MCO. Those are competitive routes, but B6 operates from a position of strength on the other end. BFL doesn’t have any competition and B6 is very strong in upstate NY.

RNO is already served by UA, AA, and WN
AUS is already served by UA, DL, AA, and WN (focus city to focus city route)
LAS is already served by UA, AA, DL, AS, G4, F9, NK, and WN (focus city to focus city route)
SLC is already served by UA, DL (hub to hub route) AA, and WN
SFO is already served by UA (hub to hub route), DL, AA, AS (focus city to focus city route), and WN.
SEA is already served by UA, DL (hub to hub route), AA (hub to new “int’l gateway” route), and AS (focus city to hub route)
EWR is not only hub to hub for UA but one of their premium transcon routes. They’ll defend their turf provided the economy recovers. If the economy doesn’t recover, B6 will have bigger problems.
Heck, BZN is even competitive with UA, AA, DL, and G4 already on the route!

Besides being hyper competitive routes, B6 won’t be the strongest on either end of these flights.

B6 needs to expand beyond the northeast and Florida but I just don’t think trying to pick a fight in a hyper competitive market with VERY entrenched legacies AND lccs is the way to do it. I don’t know that they’ll have the financial resources fight all these battles (DL has already indicated they’re not pulling back on BOS, UA will defend EWR if the economy recovers) all at once. I’ll give you the legacies and other lccs will only fight back if economic conditions warrant it. However, if air travel doest recover, that will be B6s undoing on their 2020 dartboard follies.

As far as B6 expanding, they missed opportunities in the early-mid 2000s to establish a mid continent base. They could have scooped up F9 while pre merger UA was weak and WN hadn’t entered DEN yet. While not as attractive as WN was already there (but a small player at that time) I think there was an opportunity to go into STL when AA downgauged then dehubbed their operation there. Heck they probably could have moved into MEM or CLE when those cities got dehubbed in the 2010s.


Couple of thoughts here:

You're viewing the LAX move, especially the intrawest flying, in the context of the existing footprint at LGB, and not the future footprint of at least 70 flights per day, many of which will be to markets not yet announced. So while it doesn't make sense in the current context, it will make sense in the future context, especially when leveraged with the TCON product and with international destinations.

Who is scared of WN? B6 successfully competes head to head with them in FLL and MCO. WN didn't drive B6 out of LGB, a city council that didnt share B6's vision for LGB did. B6 certainly isn't scared of WN in LAX.

DL is saying they're going to "defend" Boston (even though they're defending with fewer flights in BOS than B6, low single digit margins, and 53% of pre-COVID flying on a contracted out regional). Meanwhile they've scrapped opening the pilot base, pulled back the announcement of the Boston VP they were hiring, etc. They've come and gone in Boston multiple times over the past 20 years, while JetBlue has consistently competed there and won with superior margins.

As far as EWR is concerned, it makes sense for B6 to offer Mint out of there. They have a popular franchise in EWR and the UA TCON product is substandard compared to Mint.

All in all, these moves by B6 are considered moves with a lot of internal logic if you've been following them.
 
catiii
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:59 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
So those people at Long Beach who will "never" fly B6 again. Hmm ok. So they'd rather connect three times on Southwest out of LGB or sit with no leg room, no TVs, no Wifi on a transcon out of LAX instead? Probably at a higher price too. They are welcome to it, I'm sure many So. Cal people will LOVE the far superior coach and MINT experience on B6 transcons than the likes of AA or AS.

B6 is going to succeed at LAX for the same reasons it does at other big airports. Take a look inside their planes and compare them to others. I know who i'd rather be taking to Hawaii or the east coast out of LAX, and its not inside a SWA cabin.

On a related note, these big moves at EWR and LAX really do put the finishing moves on Alaska's transcon game.

And, when it happens and you know it will, when they launch Hawaii out of LAX with MINT service, its going to transform the Hawaii market incredibly.


Everything said here times 2. It cracks me up that this board thinks somehow LAX is this impenetrable fortress when B6 can't put enough Mint flying in there as it is. LGB was a drag on the west coast network. Finally getting meaningful access at LAX will turbocharge it. Plus it will complement whats to come at BUR and ONT.
 
catiii
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 7:08 pm

tphuang wrote:

In order for them to succeed at LAX, they need to do a few things I think:
1) continue expanding mint on trasncon + HI. I see them getting to over 30 mint flights when all is said and done
2) Really pour resources into LAX. Meaning putting latest A321N and A220 there. They basically dumped old A320s in LGB for a long time because there was no opportunity for improvement there. Can't do that with LAX. They need a A220 base there.
3) Find long and thing transcon markets out of LAX that are under-served by non-ULCCs and serve them
4) Find VFR markets that are undeserved by US carriers and aggressively serve them with low cost A321s.
5) Try not to lose too much money on the west coast stuff by using a good product that have lost cost. That's where A220 comes in. To be competitive to big markets like SFO/LAS/SEA, they will need to use A220 to not lose too much money here.


I think you'll see more Mint expansion out of LAX to markets it does and does not already serve, including markets that JetBlue doesn't already serve. I think the 220s, when they get a critical mass, will allow them to launch TCON expansion into a host of markets that can't support Mint but could support TCON service to LAX. The will free up 320s to come back east and replace some of the 190 flying out of BOS. The fleet mix of low density and high density 321s, plus ETOPS coming on line, will open up options to Hawaii and north and south of the border.
 
arfbool
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Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Fri Jul 10, 2020 7:10 pm

Exactly. People on here are acting like Jetblue is new to LAX (been there since 2009), and new to the airline business and competitive markets in general (obviously not.) The object is not to simply force LGB passengers to use LAX instead, but to grow at an airport they've been trying to grow at for years, while closing down an airport that was harming them. The "move" if you want to call it that is just one of convenience made possible during this time.
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