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PepeTheFrog
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Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:49 pm

Emirates believes the 777X will slip further and deliveries won't happen before 2022.

Boeing’s new 777X jet is likely to miss its planned debut next year, according to the aircraft’s top customer Emirates, which doesn’t expect to receive any planes before 2022.

Deliveries of the wide-body jet, which first flew in January, will probably be held up by Boeing’s shutdown at the height of the coronavirus pandemic, together with a lengthy certification process, said Emirates chief operating officer Adel Al Redha in an interview on Thursday.


Emirates also wants to convert more 777X orders into the smaller 787.

Emirates is also considering whether to seek a swap of some of the 115 777Xs it has on order – representing more than a third of the total backlog – for the smaller 787 Dreamliner, which might be better matched to demand, he said. Accelerating deliveries from an earlier Dreamliner order is a “possibility,” he said.


Boeing is looking at delaying the upgraded 777’s introduction as other buyers also resist taking delivery of such a large plane when they’re being compelled to shrink operations, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named discussing confidential matters.


According to the same article, Boeing wants to delay the 777X introduction because more customers are not in a position to accept the large aircraft.

Emirates: Boeing 777X to miss 2021 debut, deliveries pushed to 2022
Last edited by SQ22 on Fri Jul 10, 2020 3:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Title was misleading
Good moaning!
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, convert more orders to 787

Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:01 pm

This comes as no surprise, the swap is necessary if they want to be operationally efficient. At least the aircraft is doing well in testing and Boeing are happy with it (the one positive news i picked from the article). There's definitely no need for anyone to take it on before 2022
Last edited by Opus99 on Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, convert more orders to 787

Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:03 pm

Opus99 wrote:
There's definitely no need for anyone to take it on before 2022


Unless traffic recovery happens faster than predicted.
Good moaning!
 
Scotron12
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, convert more orders to 787

Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:23 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
There's definitely no need for anyone to take it on before 2022


Unless traffic recovery happens faster than predicted.


Where? I would love to see but I don't think any recovery by 2022 is realistic.
 
chiad
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, convert more orders to 787

Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:32 pm

When was the initial planned EIS
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, convert more orders to 787

Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:33 pm

chiad wrote:
When was the initial planned EIS

April 2021
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, convert more orders to 787

Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:39 pm

Opus99 wrote:
chiad wrote:
When was the initial planned EIS

April 2021


April 2021 was already the revised schedule, the original EIS was planned for June/July 2020.
Good moaning!
 
RvA
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, convert more orders to 787

Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:42 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
There's definitely no need for anyone to take it on before 2022


Unless traffic recovery happens faster than predicted.


Or an airline has older large aircraft to replace. Some routes may make sense with large aircraft still as demand may still be there anyway or for cargo or a mix of all the above. Was looking forward to the 777X introduction hope it doesn’t slip too far away.
 
worldranger
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, convert more orders to 787

Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:29 am

How easy is it to get new 787s in short order?
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, convert more orders to 787

Fri Jul 10, 2020 10:03 am

worldranger wrote:
How easy is it to get new 787s in short order?


Except for the Max, which can't fly until RTS, it is probably easy to get any type of plane already built, just needs a new paint job. Norwegian just cancelled 5 787's, I recall a couple are already built. Other airlines would be thrilled to sell right now.
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, convert more orders to 787

Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:13 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
There's definitely no need for anyone to take it on before 2022


Unless traffic recovery happens faster than predicted.


Plenty of 380`s parked up to deal with that, if it happens, not just at EK but for all X customers! And 77W´s to soldier on a little longer. Starting to wonder about this X, things are not looking good....Great plane in a very different world!
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Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:29 pm

Lufthansa still expecting delivery in 2021
https://simpleflying.com/lufthansa-is-s ... next-year/
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Fri Jul 10, 2020 7:00 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Lufthansa still expecting delivery in 2021
https://simpleflying.com/lufthansa-is-s ... next-year/


Here's the current production status for the B779. There are 2 test program birds in service and 2 more on the assembly line. Usually one, or more of the test aircraft eventually gets converted for delivery to a customer. There are 3 more planes on the assembly line, one each for the launch customers, ANA, Lufthansa and Emirates.

https://www.planespotters.net/productio ... /777/777-9
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Fri Jul 10, 2020 7:26 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Lufthansa still expecting delivery in 2021
https://simpleflying.com/lufthansa-is-s ... next-year/


Here's the current production status for the B779. There are 2 test program birds in service and 2 more on the assembly line. Usually one, or more of the test aircraft eventually gets converted for delivery to a customer. There are 3 more planes on the assembly line, one each for the launch customers, ANA, Lufthansa and Emirates.

https://www.planespotters.net/productio ... /777/777-9


I think that is out of date relative to the production tab of https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

Before CV19, EK was the customer complaining the loudest about 779 delays, so I think the schedule got front-loaded with planes for them. LH is also heavily represented in early production.
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Scotron12
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:39 pm

There seems to be a lot of misimformation out there. LH recently said they will take a total of 80 new aircraft thru 2023, but did not specify type.

Qatar is quoted as saying no new deliveries thru 2022.

It's difficult to get an actual true number. Even Boeing themselves have not provided any guidance on any deferrals/cancellations on the 777X.
 
oschkosch
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 6:11 am

Scotron12 wrote:
Even Boeing themselves have not provided any guidance on any deferrals/cancellations on the 777X.


And I think they don't provide guidance for obvious reasons?!?
:stirthepot: :airplane: "This airplane is designed by clowns, who in turn are supervised by monkeys" :airplane: :stirthepot:
 
JoergAtADN
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 8:04 am

cougar15 wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
Plenty of 380`s parked up to deal with that, if it happens, not just at EK but for all X customers! And 77W´s to soldier on a little longer. Starting to wonder about this X, things are not looking good....Great plane in a very different world!


And fuel prices are low as never - no reason to invest in an expensive new 777x for a slightly better efficiency.
 
xwb777
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 8:16 am

Will Boeing let EK convert additional B779s to B789s?
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 8:48 am

I predict cancellation of the whole type. I realise many here don't agree with that, almost done already etc. But, the aircraft aren't really needed.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:06 am

AirlineCritic wrote:
I predict cancellation of the whole type. I realise many here don't agree with that, almost done already etc. But, the aircraft aren't really needed.


Aren’t really needed now sure, but in a few years. I can’t see them canceling the program given that it is close to service entry now.
 
AAIRLINERS
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:32 am

Three plus years at a minimum. Hopefully they'll still be relevant at that point in time. High loads and higher fuel prices will be key. The price tag doesn't support its advantage over the 77W. And for many even the 77W is too much airplane for most missions. Good thing the 787 family is out there. Right sized good economics. Hopefully It should help Boeing compete in a number of markets in the long term.
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:40 am

Why are people acting like nobody will ever need that size of aircraft in this industry again. Is it needed now? Of course not. But this talk of cancelling the program. If they didn’t cancel the 747-8 program, I’m sure this program still has life in it. Somebody said the aircraft offers little efficiency over the predecessor for the price. Maybe they know the efficiency figures or something so they can tell us
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:39 am

Opus99 wrote:
Why are people acting like nobody will ever need that size of aircraft in this industry again. Is it needed now? Of course not. But this talk of cancelling the program. If they didn’t cancel the 747-8 program, I’m sure this program still has life in it. Somebody said the aircraft offers little efficiency over the predecessor for the price. Maybe they know the efficiency figures or something so they can tell us


You asked this rhetorically but I'm going to respond anyway.

People act that way because they seek to transfer the A380 failure to the 777X. Never mind that the 777X is the significant update to the 77W (the aircraft that vanquished the A380), has somewhat fewer seats, and markedly better CASM than the A380. Those are just inconvenient facts - and we see people willing to ignore facts every day.

It's not a great time to be sending the 777X into service but 'stuff happens' with costly, long-development-cycle projects. Until A and B figure out a way to launch new aircraft in 1/5 the time (and so wait to start until they see a favorable launch window), once or twice a generation we may see new aircraft launched into difficult markets.
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 12:59 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Why are people acting like nobody will ever need that size of aircraft in this industry again. Is it needed now? Of course not. But this talk of cancelling the program. If they didn’t cancel the 747-8 program, I’m sure this program still has life in it. Somebody said the aircraft offers little efficiency over the predecessor for the price. Maybe they know the efficiency figures or something so they can tell us


You asked this rhetorically but I'm going to respond anyway.

People act that way because they seek to transfer the A380 failure to the 777X. Never mind that the 777X is the significant update to the 77W (the aircraft that vanquished the A380), has somewhat fewer seats, and markedly better CASM than the A380. Those are just inconvenient facts - and we see people willing to ignore facts every day.

It's not a great time to be sending the 777X into service but 'stuff happens' with costly, long-development-cycle projects. Until A and B figure out a way to launch new aircraft in 1/5 the time (and so wait to start until they see a favorable launch window), once or twice a generation we may see new aircraft launched into difficult markets.

The 779 has quite a few efficiency gains:
1. Engines
a. Variable cooling. This started in the LEAP
b. higher pressure and bypass
c. A very advanced cooling system , this cuts fuel burn
2. Wing
a. underside laminar flow
b. increased aspect ratio (minor), required for underside laminar flow.
c. Folding wingtips (allows improved aerodynamics)
3. Body
a. Longer
b. internally wider


As noted, the 77W vanquished the A388. The 779 will easily vanquish the 77W. The A388 has a CASM advantage over the 77W, but the 77W had a cargo advantage and a fuel burn advantage.

The question is, how quickly will the market will recover. As the largest in production aircraft that can be purchased, airlines will only buy if the risk isn't as bad as today.

In my opinion, the important metric is fraction of free seats vs. the A35K. I calculate that at EIS the A388 flew only 34 "free seats" vs. the 77W. As the 77W received more PiPs, that advantage shrank with time. I calculate more free seats on the 779. In other words, a small added cost per flight, but more capacity.

I do not expect the 779 to sell as well as the 77W. I do expect the 777xF to outsell the 777F. The 778, like the 77L, will have so few sales to be interesting, but not significant; assuming it is built.

Lightsaber
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olle
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 1:00 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Why are people acting like nobody will ever need that size of aircraft in this industry again. Is it needed now? Of course not. But this talk of cancelling the program. If they didn’t cancel the 747-8 program, I’m sure this program still has life in it. Somebody said the aircraft offers little efficiency over the predecessor for the price. Maybe they know the efficiency figures or something so they can tell us


You asked this rhetorically but I'm going to respond anyway.

People act that way because they seek to transfer the A380 failure to the 777X. Never mind that the 777X is the significant update to the 77W (the aircraft that vanquished the A380), has somewhat fewer seats, and markedly better CASM than the A380. Those are just inconvenient facts - and we see people willing to ignore facts every day.

It's not a great time to be sending the 777X into service but 'stuff happens' with costly, long-development-cycle projects. Until A and B figure out a way to launch new aircraft in 1/5 the time (and so wait to start until they see a favorable launch window), once or twice a generation we may see new aircraft launched into difficult markets.


There is a rule I been reading during my quit few years here at A.net without being an expert in aviation.

Does a frame have a smaller with equal or better CASM competitor it is doomed.

So the question is does 777X sit in this situation?
 
DUSZRH
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 1:03 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Lufthansa still expecting delivery in 2021
https://simpleflying.com/lufthansa-is-s ... next-year/


Publicly yes. I heard from various sources that first delivery at LH will be 2022.
 
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par13del
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 1:08 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
People act that way because they seek to transfer the A380 failure to the 777X. Never mind that the 777X is the significant update to the 77W (the aircraft that vanquished the A380), has somewhat fewer seats.......

Perhaps another flaw in the thinking is the somewhat fewer seats than the A380.
When you compare the deployed seats in the A380 and the 777W then realize that the 777X only has about 2 to 5 more rows than the 777W, somewhat more seats than the 777W is more appropriate. If folks want to compare evacuation seat counts across the A380, 777W and 777X, that makes it even more interesting.
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 1:08 pm

DUSZRH wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Lufthansa still expecting delivery in 2021
https://simpleflying.com/lufthansa-is-s ... next-year/


Publicly yes. I heard from various sources that first delivery at LH will be 2022.

Yeah that makes more sense now. Thanks
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 1:30 pm

par13del wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
People act that way because they seek to transfer the A380 failure to the 777X. Never mind that the 777X is the significant update to the 77W (the aircraft that vanquished the A380), has somewhat fewer seats.......

Perhaps another flaw in the thinking is the somewhat fewer seats than the A380.
When you compare the deployed seats in the A380 and the 777W then realize that the 777X only has about 2 to 5 more rows than the 777W, somewhat more seats than the 777W is more appropriate. If folks want to compare evacuation seat counts across the A380, 777W and 777X, that makes it even more interesting.

But the 779 has 10 abreast in economy; a lot of 77Ws did also but those flying near the range limits (JFK-HKG) seem to be remaining 9 abreast. All 779s will be 10 abreast, and will have the same (or maybe better, if it does exceed expectations) range as the 77W. So it will carry significantly more passengers on extreme range flights.
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Scotron12
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 2:01 pm

AAIRLINERS wrote:
Three plus years at a minimum. Hopefully they'll still be relevant at that point in time. High loads and higher fuel prices will be key. The price tag doesn't support its advantage over the 77W. And for many even the 77W is too much airplane for most missions. Good thing the 787 family is out there. Right sized good economics. Hopefully It should help Boeing compete in a number of markets in the long term.


British Airways, which has ordered the 779, best estimate on recovery is 2024, worst estimate is 2025/2026.

Walsh also says that BA will continue to take new aircraft, and have no plans to defer or cancel any.

The recovery he speaks is of course traffic to USA. The travel ban alone could last many months. Fauci said the ban may last until a vaccine is produced. That could be 1yr alone.
 
VictorKilo
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:20 pm

xwb777 wrote:
Will Boeing let EK convert additional B779s to B789s?


Absolutely.

Cash rules everything around me. If Boeing can get cash in 2020 or 2021 for 789 for EK at the expense of potential profitable 779 sales in 2024, that's what they do. It means they have incrementally less to borrow in 2020 and 2021 to sustain the business.

This makes complete sense for Boeing to fully support.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:53 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Why are people acting like nobody will ever need that size of aircraft in this industry again. Is it needed now? Of course not. But this talk of cancelling the program. If they didn’t cancel the 747-8 program, I’m sure this program still has life in it. Somebody said the aircraft offers little efficiency over the predecessor for the price. Maybe they know the efficiency figures or something so they can tell us


You asked this rhetorically but I'm going to respond anyway.

People act that way because they seek to transfer the A380 failure to the 777X. Never mind that the 777X is the significant update to the 77W (the aircraft that vanquished the A380), has somewhat fewer seats, and markedly better CASM than the A380. Those are just inconvenient facts - and we see people willing to ignore facts every day.

It's not a great time to be sending the 777X into service but 'stuff happens' with costly, long-development-cycle projects. Until A and B figure out a way to launch new aircraft in 1/5 the time (and so wait to start until they see a favorable launch window), once or twice a generation we may see new aircraft launched into difficult markets.


Many of the arguments predicting the A380 would not be a success are applicable to the 777X. Obviously the 777X is much smaller and much more efficient, but in the A350 and 787 it has 'competitors' that are much more flexible, barely less efficient and well-established by now. The 777X has a good customer base, but if the largest and most important customer by far wants tom reduce their orders you have to admit that the future is shaky for the 777X.
 
DTWLAX
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 4:15 pm

xwb777 wrote:
Will Boeing let EK convert additional B779s to B789s?

Why not? Boeing do not have a choice here and do not want to piss off one of their biggest customer.
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 6:37 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
You asked this rhetorically but I'm going to respond anyway.


I'd suggest you should not try to assign motivations to people who you don't really know. I'm sure you wouldn't like others to claim motivations for yourself.
 
xwb777
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 8:10 pm

Emirates Tim Clark interview with Richard Quest on CNN:

-The airline has planned for such crisis throughout its history of operations and Tim Clark has never though that the airline will face such a horrific situation. Cash Management is always a priority and the airline doesn't allow to fall below six to nine months red light, which allows it to meet all financial obligations.

Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHhveRTbdE0
 
acavpics
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:28 pm

Still waiting for them to get some A339's.
 
9Patch
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:47 am

olle wrote:
There is a rule I been reading during my quit few years here at A.net without being an expert in aviation.

Does a frame have a smaller with equal or better CASM competitor it is doomed.

So the question is does 777X sit in this situation?


Does the A350 sit sit in this situation too?
 
astuteman
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 8:18 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Why are people acting like nobody will ever need that size of aircraft in this industry again. Is it needed now? Of course not. But this talk of cancelling the program. If they didn’t cancel the 747-8 program, I’m sure this program still has life in it. Somebody said the aircraft offers little efficiency over the predecessor for the price. Maybe they know the efficiency figures or something so they can tell us


You asked this rhetorically but I'm going to respond anyway.

People act that way because they seek to transfer the A380 failure to the 777X. Never mind that the 777X is the significant update to the 77W (the aircraft that vanquished the A380), has somewhat fewer seats, and markedly better CASM than the A380. Those are just inconvenient facts - and we see people willing to ignore facts every day.

It's not a great time to be sending the 777X into service but 'stuff happens' with costly, long-development-cycle projects. Until A and B figure out a way to launch new aircraft in 1/5 the time (and so wait to start until they see a favorable launch window), once or twice a generation we may see new aircraft launched into difficult markets.


A couple of flaws in the argument as far as I can see
The A380 both rose and fell in a somewhat similar timescale to the 77W.
Your logic would suggest that the demise of the A380 would leave the 77W as king of the hill - but it is just as dead as the A380.
The aircraft that have caused all of us to question the need for anything bigger (and heavier, and more expensive) are the 787 and A350
Or do our US fans of the 787's "point-to-point killer effectiveness" not believe their own rhetoric any more?

Cynical response aside, that is genuinely why some of us think that the 777X will have a hard time at best.
If the ME3 finally cotton on and join the trend then "a hard time" will be a good outcome
You just have to look at the missions 787-9, 787-10, A359 and A3510 are either doing, or planned to do.

Rgds
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:05 am

astuteman wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Why are people acting like nobody will ever need that size of aircraft in this industry again. Is it needed now? Of course not. But this talk of cancelling the program. If they didn’t cancel the 747-8 program, I’m sure this program still has life in it. Somebody said the aircraft offers little efficiency over the predecessor for the price. Maybe they know the efficiency figures or something so they can tell us


You asked this rhetorically but I'm going to respond anyway.

People act that way because they seek to transfer the A380 failure to the 777X. Never mind that the 777X is the significant update to the 77W (the aircraft that vanquished the A380), has somewhat fewer seats, and markedly better CASM than the A380. Those are just inconvenient facts - and we see people willing to ignore facts every day.

It's not a great time to be sending the 777X into service but 'stuff happens' with costly, long-development-cycle projects. Until A and B figure out a way to launch new aircraft in 1/5 the time (and so wait to start until they see a favorable launch window), once or twice a generation we may see new aircraft launched into difficult markets.


A couple of flaws in the argument as far as I can see
The A380 both rose and fell in a somewhat similar timescale to the 77W.
Your logic would suggest that the demise of the A380 would leave the 77W as king of the hill - but it is just as dead as the A380.
The aircraft that have caused all of us to question the need for anything bigger (and heavier, and more expensive) are the 787 and A350
Or do our US fans of the 787's "point-to-point killer effectiveness" not believe their own rhetoric any more?

Cynical response aside, that is genuinely why some of us think that the 777X will have a hard time at best.
If the ME3 finally cotton on and join the trend then "a hard time" will be a good outcome
You just have to look at the missions 787-9, 787-10, A359 and A3510 are either doing, or planned to do.

Rgds

This is the most flawed argument. Given over 600 77Ws are flying and out of storage and will continue to fly for another 10-20 years. (BA getting some next month and they keep planes that king) Meanwhile no A380s are and probably less than 100 will come back. That aircraft won’t see the end of 2025 at best. So how you can make that comparison, I don’t know. Even the 747-8 will live longer than the 380 LMAOO see Lufthansa. Life doesn’t mean production btw. It means whether the aircraft will remain in service.

The 380 is a great aircraft but if as someone who loves the 777X I can admit it’s future is shaky at best, one must be able to admit the 380 is most dead aircraft flying today or rather not flying...because at least 747-8 is still flying as a freighter and will do so for a very long time. Please o.
 
flash330
Posts: 33
Joined: Tue Nov 30, 2010 9:58 pm

Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:21 am

Opus99 wrote:
Why are people acting like nobody will ever need that size of aircraft in this industry again. Is it needed now? Of course not. But this talk of cancelling the program. If they didn’t cancel the 747-8 program, I’m sure this program still has life in it. Somebody said the aircraft offers little efficiency over the predecessor for the price. Maybe they know the efficiency figures or something so they can tell us


Probably because we've had 15 years of posters telling us "airlines bought the 747 for its range not capacity so now smaller aircraft can fly as far why would you need an A380?"

Suddenly having extra capacity without the extra range is a bonus.
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:37 am

flash330 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Why are people acting like nobody will ever need that size of aircraft in this industry again. Is it needed now? Of course not. But this talk of cancelling the program. If they didn’t cancel the 747-8 program, I’m sure this program still has life in it. Somebody said the aircraft offers little efficiency over the predecessor for the price. Maybe they know the efficiency figures or something so they can tell us


Probably because we've had 15 years of posters telling us "airlines bought the 747 for its range not capacity so now smaller aircraft can fly as far why would you need an A380?"

Suddenly having extra capacity without the extra range is a bonus.

I don't know who those posters are, but I mean, i don't agree with that, i know the largest operator of the 747 (BA) certainly did not buy it because of its range
 
Strato2
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 11:26 am

Opus99 wrote:
This is the most flawed argument. Given over 600 77Ws are flying and out of storage and will continue to fly for another 10-20 years. (BA getting some next month and they keep planes that king) Meanwhile no A380s are and probably less than 100 will come back. That aircraft won’t see the end of 2025 at best. So how you can make that comparison, I don’t know. Even the 747-8 will live longer than the 380 LMAOO see Lufthansa. Life doesn’t mean production btw. It means whether the aircraft will remain in service.


Even if less than 100 A380's come back (and more will just wait and see) it's three times the whole production run of 747-8i. There will be still A380 plying the skies when the last Intercontinental is rotting in the Mojave desert or converted to cargo but even that prospect is dubious considering the ample feedstock of better P2F planes.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:16 pm

The 777X is a niche aircraft, only a little more capable than the larger 787/350s. It likely will have a long but not spectacular sales history. It is not and was not intended to be a game changer in the current sales distribution. The previous 777W turned out to be, and succeeded, the 380 intended to be a game changer, and a big one at that. Other posters have suggested that the re-engine-ing of the 787/350 will make the 777X redundant. On the other hand what will happen in the world post-covid - who knows?
Last edited by frmrCapCadet on Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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marcelh
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Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:20 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
The 777X is a niche aircraft, only a little more capable than the larger 787/350s. It likely will have a long but not spectacular sales history. It is not and was not intended to be a game changer in the current sales distribution. The previous 777W turned out to be, and succeeded, the 380 intended to be a game changer, and a big one at that.

Boeing did not spend billions just to fill a niche.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4109
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:24 pm

marcelh wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
The 777X is a niche aircraft, only a little more capable than the larger 787/350s. It likely will have a long but not spectacular sales history. It is not and was not intended to be a game changer in the current sales distribution. The previous 777W turned out to be, and succeeded, the 380 intended to be a game changer, and a big one at that.

Boeing did not spend billions just to fill a niche.


Boeing spent it to save a niche. The 777W cannot compete against the larger 350s.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
ewt340
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:33 pm

marcelh wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
The 777X is a niche aircraft, only a little more capable than the larger 787/350s. It likely will have a long but not spectacular sales history. It is not and was not intended to be a game changer in the current sales distribution. The previous 777W turned out to be, and succeeded, the 380 intended to be a game changer, and a big one at that.

Boeing did not spend billions just to fill a niche.


Actually, it is a niche aircraft. The smaller -8 got too much range and higher fuel consumption (just like the -200LR situation). The larger -9 is too big for majority of airlines even though it's super efficient.

B777-300ER sat between these 2 aircraft. Doesn't have as much range as the -8 and smaller than the -9. It's a perfect formula that can't be replicate with 2 different aircraft that fulfill none of the -300ER function for most part.

-300ER is a game changer, the -8/-9 is not.
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:02 pm

ewt340 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
The 777X is a niche aircraft, only a little more capable than the larger 787/350s. It likely will have a long but not spectacular sales history. It is not and was not intended to be a game changer in the current sales distribution. The previous 777W turned out to be, and succeeded, the 380 intended to be a game changer, and a big one at that.

Boeing did not spend billions just to fill a niche.


Actually, it is a niche aircraft. The smaller -8 got too much range and higher fuel consumption (just like the -200LR situation). The larger -9 is too big for majority of airlines even though it's super efficient.

B777-300ER sat between these 2 aircraft. Doesn't have as much range as the -8 and smaller than the -9. It's a perfect formula that can't be replicate with 2 different aircraft that fulfill none of the -300ER function for most part.

-300ER is a game changer, the -8/-9 is not.

You make a very good point here, i don't see the -9 as a game changer as such, but the question i have is when does an aircraft become too big. i am of the opinion that if you can fill a 300er you can fill a -9. a standard 2 class config of the 300er is 396 according to boeing some airlines (air canada & emirates) have configs north of 425. for the -9 its 426 in a standard two class - bear in mind with 7 abreast in business class in a standard 2 class and 350 in a 3 class so really its either 3 extra rows of economy seating or about 2 rows of business class or if you're qatar 1 extra row of business class. the whole frame is only extended by about 9ft
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:12 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
The 777X is a niche aircraft, only a little more capable than the larger 787/350s. It likely will have a long but not spectacular sales history. It is not and was not intended to be a game changer in the current sales distribution. The previous 777W turned out to be, and succeeded, the 380 intended to be a game changer, and a big one at that. Other posters have suggested that the re-engine-ing of the 787/350 will make the 777X redundant. On the other hand what will happen in the world post-covid - who knows?

I agree. 77X is right about where its business plan suggested it should be. 309 orders before EIS from blue chip customers around the world, many of whom are A350 customers, some of whom are A350-1000 customers. It found as good a degree of acceptance as I think could have been expected.

I'm not sure what Boeing should have done instead. They could have chosen to follow the original Yellowstone roadmap and do an all CFRP replacement, but their botched 787 execution left them very short of time and money while Airbus had put in extra time and money to move the A350-1000 up market. They could have done the big spend and attacked head on but would have made both companies enter a price fight no one wanted. Instead they do the moderate spend to take on new wings and engines and system tweaks to attack the available market.

CV19 is a true wildcard because it attacks the largest airplanes the most, yet post recovery it will have gotten a lot of A380s and 744s retired off leaving room for 77X to grow. 77X has won orders against A350 before CV19, if we have a robust recovery I don't see why the trend would not continue.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
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Boeing757100
Posts: 189
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:43 pm

One question I have: Didn't EK repeatedly doubt the 787-10 and even the plane in general because it didn't work in the hot Dubai climate? How will deferring the 777x, a better plane for their climate, help? The 787-10 and 777-9 are similar-sized in ways, right? And when they switched the 787-10 to 787-9, that made me more confused.
 
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Dutchy
Posts: 11646
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:56 pm

Boeing757100 wrote:
One question I have: Didn't EK repeatedly doubt the 787-10 and even the plane in general because it didn't work in the hot Dubai climate? How will deferring the 777x, a better plane for their climate, help? The 787-10 and 777-9 are similar-sized in ways, right? And when they switched the 787-10 to 787-9, that made me more confused.


787-10, 2 class: 330 seats
777-9, 2 class: 426seats

779 is quite a bit bigger.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!

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