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FlyingElvii
Posts: 880
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:07 pm

"15 departures moved out of PHL. I wonder what the logic is? Congestion is no longer an issue."

Obviously more O+D to CLT, than on short haul to PHL.
Probably reflects the pax routings as well, Northeast to the south. and can still service the west bounds from CLT.
 
silentbob
Posts: 1612
Joined: Tue Aug 15, 2006 1:26 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:10 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
enilria wrote:
15 departures moved out of PHL. I wonder what the logic is? Congestion is no longer an issue.
**AA ABE-CLT OCT 3>4[3] NOV 3>4[3] DEC 3>4[3] JAN 3>4[3] FEB 3>4[3] MAR 3>4[3] APR 3>4[3] MAY 3>4[2]
**AA ABE-PHL SEP 3>0[3] OCT 4>0[3] NOV 4>0[3] DEC 4>0[3] JAN 4>0[3] FEB 4>0[3] MAR 4>0[3] APR 4>0[3] MAY 4>0[0.0]
**AA AVP-CLT OCT 4>5[4] NOV 3>4[4] DEC 3>4[4] JAN 3>4[4] FEB 3>4[4] MAR 3>4[4] APR 4>5[4] MAY 4>5[2]
**AA AVP-PHL SEP 3>0[3] OCT 4>0[3] NOV 4>0[3] DEC 4>0[3] JAN 4>0[3] FEB 4>0[3] MAR 4>0[3] APR 4>0[3] MAY 4>0[0.1]
*AA BDA-JFK SEP 0.7>0[1.0] OCT 1.0>0[1.0] NOV 1.0>0[1.0] DEC 1.0>0.5[1.0]
AA BDA-MIA SEP 0>0.7[1.0] OCT 0.8>1.0[1.0]
AA CLT-FNT SEP 1.9>3[1.8] OCT 2>3[2] NOV 2>3[1.9] DEC 2>3[1.9] JAN 2>3[2] FEB 2>3[2] MAR 2>3[2] APR 2>3[2] MAY 2>3[1.0]
**AA CLT-HVN SEP 0>1.4[0.1] OCT 0>1.8[0.1] NOV 0>1.9[0.2] DEC 0>1.9[0.1] JAN 0>1.8[0.1] FEB 0>1.9[0.2] MAR 0>1.9[0.1] APR 0>2[0.1] MAY 0>2[0.0]
**AA CLT-ITH SEP 0.1>1.5[0] OCT 0.2>2[0.1] NOV 0.1>2[0.2] DEC 0.1>2[0.1] JAN 0.2>2[0.1] FEB 0.1>2[0.2] MAR 0.1>2[0.1] APR 0>2[0.1] MAY 0>2[0.0]
AA CLT-OKC SEP 2>3[3] OCT 2>3[3]
AA DFW-FAT APR 5>4[3] MAY 5>4[1.9]
**AA HVN-PHL SEP 3>0.5[3] OCT 3>0[3] NOV 3>0[3] DEC 3>0[3] JAN 3>0[1.6] FEB 3>0[1.8] MAR 3>0[2] APR 3>0[2] MAY 3>0[0.7]
**AA ITH-PHL SEP 3>0.5[3] OCT 3>0[3] NOV 3>0[4] DEC 3>0[3] JAN 3>0[3] FEB 3>0[3] MAR 3>0[3] APR 2>0[3] MAY 2>0[0.7]
AA LAX-SJD JAN 1.2>1.9[0.9] FEB 1.0>1.9[0.9] MAR 1.6>2[1.0]
AA MIA-STT NOV 2.4>3.0[2.1]
**AA OKC-PHL SEP 1.5>0[0.9] OCT 1.8>0[1.0] NOV 1.0>0[1.0] DEC 1.0>0[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0] MAR 1.0>0[1.0] APR 1.0>0[1.0] MAY 1.0>0[0]
**AA PHL-SAT SEP 0.7>0[0] OCT 1.0>0[0] NOV 1.0>0[0.9] DEC 1.0>0[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[0.3] FEB 1.0>0[0] MAR 1.0>0[0] APR 1.0>0[0] MAY 1.0>0[0]
AA PHL-STT NOV 0.4>1.0[0.4]


OKC and SAT cuts I understand - they can aggregate traffic at the larger/closer/more route frequency DFW hub.

ABE, AVP, HVN, ITH are more of head-scratchers: PHL is the close hub. This is going to be worth watching over time: Has AA chosen to prioritize CLT over PHL?

More connecting opportunities and lower costs in CLT than PHL. Add in the lingering stigma of operating flights through PHL and it makes sense. IPT is also scheduled to change over to CLT in a couple months.
Last edited by silentbob on Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
freakyrat
Posts: 2011
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:18 pm

jmscsc wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
DL ATL-SBN 1 >3 (4) AUG DL SBN-ATL 1 >3 (4) AUG


As a DL flyer who lives in SBN I'm glad to see the ATL flights come back. For the last two months we've only had one DL flight a day to DTW and it was the first of the day to DTW and the last back to SBN. It was not convenient. I fly the ATL flight next week.


They have 1 ATL flight now the 8:20 Morning flight. In August they have flights scheduled at 7:05 AM, 1:37 PM and 4:41 PM. In September They have flights scheduled at 6:15 AM, 8:05 AM. 12:15 PM and 5:15 PM.

For SBN-DTW in August They have 3 flights scheduled 8:15 AM, 12:11 PM and 5:20 PM.

SBN-MSP possibly returns in September.
 
kavok
Posts: 832
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:32 pm

jmscsc wrote:
HNLSLCPDX wrote:
jmscsc wrote:

I've also flown that route and would agree with you.

They’ll still have YEG as part of their network with the codeshare with WS, just getting there won’t be as easy and convenient.



I was wondering if this route might be switched over to WS. That is, WS flying MSP - YEG.


DL has been dropping a lot of Canadian stations recently. YXE, YOW, and now YEG. Obviously it is probably at least partially Covid related. But while WS has yet to add them, DL technically can’t coordinate with WS because the JV has still yet to be approved.

Further, I doubt WS would add them until the government approves their JV, as adding the flights now works against the reasoning of needing a JV.
 
hiflyeras
Posts: 2254
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:48 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:52 pm

NK looks like they've cancelled everything out of SEA except LAS. Wonder why they'd bother if that's their only SEA flight?
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 880
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Sun Jul 12, 2020 8:14 pm

aerace wrote:
SAT out of PHL was inconsistent from the jump--seasonal to year-round to seasonal to weekends to year-round to removed completely. If memory serves right, this route was a casualty of MAX route reductions, meanwhile AUS got beefed up to 3x a day. AVP and ABE are drives away, and actually have more pax funneling through CLT anyways so why not just bulk them up. HVN and ITH are definitely confusing. I guess maybe AA is cutting their losses now, and when traffic rebounds they consider re-adding in the future? Similar to what they had done during the merger consolidation (like Halifax for instance).

Also to note, PHL lost Erie and is also losing Williamsport, so maybe this is a strategy to get rid of jet flights that are close-ish to PHL? What the reason would be I have no idea.

I am told by an IPT local that the Philly flights are delayed so often, that driving is usually a better choice.
Going to CLT opens that up a lot, and it is likely the direction most of the traffic is going anyway. If you get a delay in CLT, you just aren't going to walk downstairs and rent a car because it is quicker.
 
freakyrat
Posts: 2011
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Sun Jul 12, 2020 8:20 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
aerace wrote:
SAT out of PHL was inconsistent from the jump--seasonal to year-round to seasonal to weekends to year-round to removed completely. If memory serves right, this route was a casualty of MAX route reductions, meanwhile AUS got beefed up to 3x a day. AVP and ABE are drives away, and actually have more pax funneling through CLT anyways so why not just bulk them up. HVN and ITH are definitely confusing. I guess maybe AA is cutting their losses now, and when traffic rebounds they consider re-adding in the future? Similar to what they had done during the merger consolidation (like Halifax for instance).

Also to note, PHL lost Erie and is also losing Williamsport, so maybe this is a strategy to get rid of jet flights that are close-ish to PHL? What the reason would be I have no idea.

I am told by an IPT local that the Philly flights are delayed so often, that driving is usually a better choice.
Going to CLT opens that up a lot, and it is likely the direction most of the traffic is going anyway. If you get a delay in CLT, you just aren't going to walk downstairs and rent a car because it is quicker.


I once got delayed three hours in Buffalo waiting for my connecting flight to Boston to arrive from Philly so I know about that. The good thing is it delayed me getting home to DFW on a Sunday and the only seat the Buffalo people had to put me on out of BOS was a First Class one.
 
jb1087xna
Posts: 493
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2014 2:11 am

Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Sun Jul 12, 2020 8:25 pm

Thanks for the post.

enilria wrote:
UA IAH-LIT AUG 2>3[5]
UA IAH-XNA AUG 1.5>3[4]


Short term bookings must look pretty strong.

AA is up to something like 15 flights a day at XNA again already. I believe this will take UA up to 5 in August and DL will be at 4. Quite the spread. And UA had just taken XNA-DEN out of the schedule completely for August as of last week. Seems like they could've thrown in 1x to DEN and just move IAH up to 2x to keep seats the same but make west coast connections easier.
 
RetiredDLlead
Posts: 1
Joined: Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:31 am

Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:29 pm

Thanks for the weekly updates Enilra! Strange times we are living in.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3319
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Sun Jul 12, 2020 10:14 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
enilria wrote:
15 departures moved out of PHL. I wonder what the logic is? Congestion is no longer an issue.
**AA ABE-CLT OCT 3>4[3] NOV 3>4[3] DEC 3>4[3] JAN 3>4[3] FEB 3>4[3] MAR 3>4[3] APR 3>4[3] MAY 3>4[2]
**AA ABE-PHL SEP 3>0[3] OCT 4>0[3] NOV 4>0[3] DEC 4>0[3] JAN 4>0[3] FEB 4>0[3] MAR 4>0[3] APR 4>0[3] MAY 4>0[0.0]
**AA AVP-CLT OCT 4>5[4] NOV 3>4[4] DEC 3>4[4] JAN 3>4[4] FEB 3>4[4] MAR 3>4[4] APR 4>5[4] MAY 4>5[2]
**AA AVP-PHL SEP 3>0[3] OCT 4>0[3] NOV 4>0[3] DEC 4>0[3] JAN 4>0[3] FEB 4>0[3] MAR 4>0[3] APR 4>0[3] MAY 4>0[0.1]
*AA BDA-JFK SEP 0.7>0[1.0] OCT 1.0>0[1.0] NOV 1.0>0[1.0] DEC 1.0>0.5[1.0]
AA BDA-MIA SEP 0>0.7[1.0] OCT 0.8>1.0[1.0]
AA CLT-FNT SEP 1.9>3[1.8] OCT 2>3[2] NOV 2>3[1.9] DEC 2>3[1.9] JAN 2>3[2] FEB 2>3[2] MAR 2>3[2] APR 2>3[2] MAY 2>3[1.0]
**AA CLT-HVN SEP 0>1.4[0.1] OCT 0>1.8[0.1] NOV 0>1.9[0.2] DEC 0>1.9[0.1] JAN 0>1.8[0.1] FEB 0>1.9[0.2] MAR 0>1.9[0.1] APR 0>2[0.1] MAY 0>2[0.0]
**AA CLT-ITH SEP 0.1>1.5[0] OCT 0.2>2[0.1] NOV 0.1>2[0.2] DEC 0.1>2[0.1] JAN 0.2>2[0.1] FEB 0.1>2[0.2] MAR 0.1>2[0.1] APR 0>2[0.1] MAY 0>2[0.0]
AA CLT-OKC SEP 2>3[3] OCT 2>3[3]
AA DFW-FAT APR 5>4[3] MAY 5>4[1.9]
**AA HVN-PHL SEP 3>0.5[3] OCT 3>0[3] NOV 3>0[3] DEC 3>0[3] JAN 3>0[1.6] FEB 3>0[1.8] MAR 3>0[2] APR 3>0[2] MAY 3>0[0.7]
**AA ITH-PHL SEP 3>0.5[3] OCT 3>0[3] NOV 3>0[4] DEC 3>0[3] JAN 3>0[3] FEB 3>0[3] MAR 3>0[3] APR 2>0[3] MAY 2>0[0.7]
AA LAX-SJD JAN 1.2>1.9[0.9] FEB 1.0>1.9[0.9] MAR 1.6>2[1.0]
AA MIA-STT NOV 2.4>3.0[2.1]
**AA OKC-PHL SEP 1.5>0[0.9] OCT 1.8>0[1.0] NOV 1.0>0[1.0] DEC 1.0>0[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0] MAR 1.0>0[1.0] APR 1.0>0[1.0] MAY 1.0>0[0]
**AA PHL-SAT SEP 0.7>0[0] OCT 1.0>0[0] NOV 1.0>0[0.9] DEC 1.0>0[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[0.3] FEB 1.0>0[0] MAR 1.0>0[0] APR 1.0>0[0] MAY 1.0>0[0]
AA PHL-STT NOV 0.4>1.0[0.4]


OKC and SAT cuts I understand - they can aggregate traffic at the larger/closer/more route frequency DFW hub.

ABE, AVP, HVN, ITH are more of head-scratchers: PHL is the close hub. This is going to be worth watching over time: Has AA chosen to prioritize CLT over PHL?


Piggybacking on what others have said, I expect it's likely some combination of AA looking at where people from these stations are traveling (probably quite a bit of Florida, Texas, etc.) and deciding that CLT can handle most connecting flows adequately, along with lower costs at CLT and a plan to pull down more 50-seat flying. Maybe AA loses some traffic at ITH and AVP to DL via DTW (e.g. traffic bound for the Midwest and the West Coast), but they must have decided that traffic isn't worth enough to their network to keep operating these short 50-seater flights.

The sad thing is that I think AVP and ITH each just lost their last eastbound flights (both also lost their EWR connections not too long ago). Not great for anyone bound for Europe.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
Dominion301
Posts: 2809
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Sun Jul 12, 2020 10:22 pm

DLASFlyer wrote:
Flown Delta to Edmonton many times. That will be a big hole in the network if permanent.


YEG joins YOW and YXE into the “suspended indefinitely” category. I wonder how long before YHZ, YQB and YEG follow suit. I wonder if the latter survives with 70 years of DL/NW history in Winnipeg?
 
Bingo1
Posts: 237
Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2009 5:12 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Sun Jul 12, 2020 10:38 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
DLASFlyer wrote:
Flown Delta to Edmonton many times. That will be a big hole in the network if permanent.


YEG joins YOW and YXE into the “suspended indefinitely” category. I wonder how long before YHZ, YQB and YEG follow suit. I wonder if the latter survives with 70 years of DL/NW history in Winnipeg?


When Delta joined up with NWA they were the strongest American carrier in Canada and was absolutely dominant in Western Canada. They have slowly but surely letting it slide. I remember around 2005 when YEG-MSP was served by up to 3 A320's daily. Even in the slow season they had no less than 2 A319's on the route. It's sad to see that loyalty that NWA so carefully built being systematically dismantled.
Planecrzy
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14474
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Mon Jul 13, 2020 12:00 am

Bingo1 wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
DLASFlyer wrote:
Flown Delta to Edmonton many times. That will be a big hole in the network if permanent.


YEG joins YOW and YXE into the “suspended indefinitely” category. I wonder how long before YHZ, YQB and YEG follow suit. I wonder if the latter survives with 70 years of DL/NW history in Winnipeg?


When Delta joined up with NWA they were the strongest American carrier in Canada and was absolutely dominant in Western Canada. They have slowly but surely letting it slide. I remember around 2005 when YEG-MSP was served by up to 3 A320's daily. Even in the slow season they had no less than 2 A319's on the route. It's sad to see that loyalty that NWA so carefully built being systematically dismantled.


How are COVID cuts “systematic dismantlem[ent]?”
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
WkndWanderer
Posts: 287
Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2017 6:36 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Mon Jul 13, 2020 12:15 am

Cubsrule wrote:
Bingo1 wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:

YEG joins YOW and YXE into the “suspended indefinitely” category. I wonder how long before YHZ, YQB and YEG follow suit. I wonder if the latter survives with 70 years of DL/NW history in Winnipeg?


When Delta joined up with NWA they were the strongest American carrier in Canada and was absolutely dominant in Western Canada. They have slowly but surely letting it slide. I remember around 2005 when YEG-MSP was served by up to 3 A320's daily. Even in the slow season they had no less than 2 A319's on the route. It's sad to see that loyalty that NWA so carefully built being systematically dismantled.


How are COVID cuts “systematic dismantlem[ent]?”


That was also during a time when Alberta’s oil economy was a lot healthier.
 
deltairlines
Posts: 7084
Joined: Mon May 24, 1999 4:47 am

Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:05 am

FSDan wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
enilria wrote:
15 departures moved out of PHL. I wonder what the logic is? Congestion is no longer an issue.
**AA ABE-CLT OCT 3>4[3] NOV 3>4[3] DEC 3>4[3] JAN 3>4[3] FEB 3>4[3] MAR 3>4[3] APR 3>4[3] MAY 3>4[2]
**AA ABE-PHL SEP 3>0[3] OCT 4>0[3] NOV 4>0[3] DEC 4>0[3] JAN 4>0[3] FEB 4>0[3] MAR 4>0[3] APR 4>0[3] MAY 4>0[0.0]
**AA AVP-CLT OCT 4>5[4] NOV 3>4[4] DEC 3>4[4] JAN 3>4[4] FEB 3>4[4] MAR 3>4[4] APR 4>5[4] MAY 4>5[2]
**AA AVP-PHL SEP 3>0[3] OCT 4>0[3] NOV 4>0[3] DEC 4>0[3] JAN 4>0[3] FEB 4>0[3] MAR 4>0[3] APR 4>0[3] MAY 4>0[0.1]
*AA BDA-JFK SEP 0.7>0[1.0] OCT 1.0>0[1.0] NOV 1.0>0[1.0] DEC 1.0>0.5[1.0]
AA BDA-MIA SEP 0>0.7[1.0] OCT 0.8>1.0[1.0]
AA CLT-FNT SEP 1.9>3[1.8] OCT 2>3[2] NOV 2>3[1.9] DEC 2>3[1.9] JAN 2>3[2] FEB 2>3[2] MAR 2>3[2] APR 2>3[2] MAY 2>3[1.0]
**AA CLT-HVN SEP 0>1.4[0.1] OCT 0>1.8[0.1] NOV 0>1.9[0.2] DEC 0>1.9[0.1] JAN 0>1.8[0.1] FEB 0>1.9[0.2] MAR 0>1.9[0.1] APR 0>2[0.1] MAY 0>2[0.0]
**AA CLT-ITH SEP 0.1>1.5[0] OCT 0.2>2[0.1] NOV 0.1>2[0.2] DEC 0.1>2[0.1] JAN 0.2>2[0.1] FEB 0.1>2[0.2] MAR 0.1>2[0.1] APR 0>2[0.1] MAY 0>2[0.0]
AA CLT-OKC SEP 2>3[3] OCT 2>3[3]
AA DFW-FAT APR 5>4[3] MAY 5>4[1.9]
**AA HVN-PHL SEP 3>0.5[3] OCT 3>0[3] NOV 3>0[3] DEC 3>0[3] JAN 3>0[1.6] FEB 3>0[1.8] MAR 3>0[2] APR 3>0[2] MAY 3>0[0.7]
**AA ITH-PHL SEP 3>0.5[3] OCT 3>0[3] NOV 3>0[4] DEC 3>0[3] JAN 3>0[3] FEB 3>0[3] MAR 3>0[3] APR 2>0[3] MAY 2>0[0.7]
AA LAX-SJD JAN 1.2>1.9[0.9] FEB 1.0>1.9[0.9] MAR 1.6>2[1.0]
AA MIA-STT NOV 2.4>3.0[2.1]
**AA OKC-PHL SEP 1.5>0[0.9] OCT 1.8>0[1.0] NOV 1.0>0[1.0] DEC 1.0>0[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0] MAR 1.0>0[1.0] APR 1.0>0[1.0] MAY 1.0>0[0]
**AA PHL-SAT SEP 0.7>0[0] OCT 1.0>0[0] NOV 1.0>0[0.9] DEC 1.0>0[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[0.3] FEB 1.0>0[0] MAR 1.0>0[0] APR 1.0>0[0] MAY 1.0>0[0]
AA PHL-STT NOV 0.4>1.0[0.4]


OKC and SAT cuts I understand - they can aggregate traffic at the larger/closer/more route frequency DFW hub.

ABE, AVP, HVN, ITH are more of head-scratchers: PHL is the close hub. This is going to be worth watching over time: Has AA chosen to prioritize CLT over PHL?


Piggybacking on what others have said, I expect it's likely some combination of AA looking at where people from these stations are traveling (probably quite a bit of Florida, Texas, etc.) and deciding that CLT can handle most connecting flows adequately, along with lower costs at CLT and a plan to pull down more 50-seat flying. Maybe AA loses some traffic at ITH and AVP to DL via DTW (e.g. traffic bound for the Midwest and the West Coast), but they must have decided that traffic isn't worth enough to their network to keep operating these short 50-seater flights.

The sad thing is that I think AVP and ITH each just lost their last eastbound flights (both also lost their EWR connections not too long ago). Not great for anyone bound for Europe.


Honestly though, it's not the end of the world on the Europe traffic (when it comes back). AVP is a two hour drive to PHL and EWR. ABE is 1h15 to both PHL and EWR. HVN is 90 minutes drive to JFK. ITH is really the only one that is a decent drive, but then none of the remaining options (IAD and DTW) are great options to Europe. These are all low-volume O&Ds for airplane traffic, and <200mi CRJ routes aren't great economically to begin with.
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5249
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:42 am

enilria wrote:

**DE MUC-SEA NOV 0.3>0[0] DEC 0.3>0[0] JAN 0.3>0[0] FEB 0.3>0[0] MAR 0.2>0[0]



Hopefully it will come back next year, along with LH...if the economics are better a year from now.
 
Tailwinds
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:47 am

That's a lot of cuts by Alaska, but am I right to think it's not a reduction of existing flying? Looking at a couple random flights it seems like the September schedule looks a lot like July and August. Based on that I'd guess they initially filed a more optimistic September schedule and are now reducing it downward as demand is still too soft.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:AFTERMATH;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:50 am

TW870 wrote:
enilria wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
Transatlantic traffic is done for 2020. More cut for August and September ahead, as US has no intention to relax EU travel ban yet. I worry this may last until March 2021, that would be a disaster. I do hope the travel ban can be relaxed a little bit by middle of August so at least airlines can savage the remaining of winter season.

People keep saying that, but I think it has more to do with the U.S. infection rate making EU countries unwilling to allow entry. There are probably 30+ countries not allowing Americans where there is no reverse ban.


Thank you as always enilria, and I agree completely with the point you make here. We might have seen some build back on the Atlantic, but now that the US is a total basket case (15,000 new cases in Florida alone yesterday; test results take at least a week so there is zilch tracking) basically nothing can come back.

A related question is why is DL still showing ATL-FRA and JFK-MXP restarting in August. What is the purpose of those flights with the travel bans still in effect? Off-line Lufthansa/Alitalia connections for essential travel from Eastern and Southern Europe?

I also agree with other posters that in the current environment there will be more cuts in US domestic, as the value prospect of leisure travel to Florida, Texas, Los Angeles, etc., is basically zero given the intensity of the virus and corresponding lack of amenities for tourists. And obviously business travel is out of the question.

I doubt those routes will fly. I think DL has several EU routes that are on a rolling cancel until restrictions lift.

As for domestic, there are THREE HUGE SPEED BUMPS approaching.
1) leisure traffic traditionally dies in September and business traffic dominates. There is no business traffic. What the hell happens?
2) The CARES Act allows layoffs as of Oct1. UA has already signaled massive ones. It's going to be bad.
3) Flu season. Yes, COVID isn't flu, but more and more the science is moving toward the same delivery mechanism as flu which is aerosol. That means it is seasonal with humidity changes in terms of outdoor transmission.

NWAESC wrote:
TW870 wrote:
A related question is why is DL still showing ATL-FRA and JFK-MXP restarting in August. What is the purpose of those flights with the travel bans still in effect? Off-line Lufthansa/Alitalia connections for essential travel from Eastern and Southern Europe?


Likely fueled by cargo volume(s).

I think the cargo trick works while CARES is paying the labor bill, but the economics don't work for passenger planes after 10/1 IMHO.
jmscsc wrote:
HNLSLCPDX wrote:
jmscsc wrote:

I've also flown that route and would agree with you.

They’ll still have YEG as part of their network with the codeshare with WS, just getting there won’t be as easy and convenient.



I was wondering if this route might be switched over to WS. That is, WS flying MSP - YEG.

Perhaps, but I think alliance integration at DL is at full stop.
jb1087xna wrote:
Thanks for the post.

enilria wrote:
UA IAH-LIT AUG 2>3[5]
UA IAH-XNA AUG 1.5>3[4]


Short term bookings must look pretty strong.

AA is up to something like 15 flights a day at XNA again already. I believe this will take UA up to 5 in August and DL will be at 4. Quite the spread. And UA had just taken XNA-DEN out of the schedule completely for August as of last week. Seems like they could've thrown in 1x to DEN and just move IAH up to 2x to keep seats the same but make west coast connections easier.
RetiredDLlead wrote:
Thanks for the weekly updates Enilra! Strange times we are living in.

Appreciated :)
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:56 am

Cubsrule wrote:
seat1a wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

NK was extremely aggressive in adding capacity, FLL was +30% yoy & MCO was +20% yoy. Not saying demand isn't decreasing, but given how enormous their schedule was, I wouldn't be very concerned.
Image


So am I reading this gauge correctly that HA remains very optimistic (82%) about demand? Is that just for neighbor island traffic? Seems like international is non-existent at this point for them. Thoughts?


Remember that it’s a measure of seats, not ASMs, and HA has a ton of interisland seats. With Hawaii having pretty solid COVID numbers based on its strategy of isolating itself and much interisland demand coming from Hawaiians, not tourists, there’s no reason interisland shouldn’t come most of the way back.

It's 68% distance adjusted
 
silentbob
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:01 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
aerace wrote:
SAT out of PHL was inconsistent from the jump--seasonal to year-round to seasonal to weekends to year-round to removed completely. If memory serves right, this route was a casualty of MAX route reductions, meanwhile AUS got beefed up to 3x a day. AVP and ABE are drives away, and actually have more pax funneling through CLT anyways so why not just bulk them up. HVN and ITH are definitely confusing. I guess maybe AA is cutting their losses now, and when traffic rebounds they consider re-adding in the future? Similar to what they had done during the merger consolidation (like Halifax for instance).

Also to note, PHL lost Erie and is also losing Williamsport, so maybe this is a strategy to get rid of jet flights that are close-ish to PHL? What the reason would be I have no idea.

I am told by an IPT local that the Philly flights are delayed so often, that driving is usually a better choice.
Going to CLT opens that up a lot, and it is likely the direction most of the traffic is going anyway. If you get a delay in CLT, you just aren't going to walk downstairs and rent a car because it is quicker.

Having been on those IPT flights hundreds of times over the years, the complaints are considerably overstated. Complaining is the number one hobby in IPT and Philly is the number one target, My father still rants about PHL and he hasn't flown through there in years.The biggest issue is that IPT is served once per day and that makes connections inconvenient. AA allows 30 minute connections with a bus ride to the other terminals and that can be incredibly tight if you hustle. It wasn't uncommon to have passengers complaining that their connecting flight was about to board, or had already started, even though the incoming flight was actually ahead of schedule. Any minor hiccup would make those tight connections impossible, leading to the complaints you heard. Most of the major PHL delays are long gone now that AA and even WN have scaled back significantly.

Last time I heard, Florida accounted for something like 75% of the connections out of IPT, CLT works quite well for those connections.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:22 am

I have to wonder if B6 could become the #4 airline at LAX at any point...with AS retrenching from LAX, cutting a lot of route frequencies and even routes. That could be the room B6 needs to grow out west.
 
usairways85
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:42 am

AA is retreating back to the two core connecting hubs at DFW and CLT. Makes sense in an environment where it is all about cash conservation and not about hub flows. The problem is that F9, NK, & B6 seem to be chomping at the bit to throw capacity at PHL. Much of that may never materialize based on how the virus continues to play out.

And FWIW, the spike across the southern states started around 6/13 and has gone up ever since. Deaths lag confirmed cases, but I'm still waiting for that to happen 4 weeks later. I hope not to be proven wrong for everyone's sake.

Texas' death rate - 1.2%
Florida's death rate - 1.6%
Arizona's death rate - 1.8%
...
New York's death rate - 7.6%
New Jersey's death rate - 8.6%
 
braniff2hav
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Mon Jul 13, 2020 3:12 am

alfa164 wrote:
tlhgator wrote:
enilria wrote:
FAQ
AS ATL-CHS AUG 0>1.0[0]
This is a rather odd ball route for AS to begin flying. Possibly a way to Keep the Boeing traffic moving between SC and WA?


I suspect that is a SEA-ATL-CHS-SEA routing.


For August it is SEA-ATL-CHS-ATL-SEA.
 
Bingo1
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Mon Jul 13, 2020 3:16 am

WkndWanderer wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Bingo1 wrote:

When Delta joined up with NWA they were the strongest American carrier in Canada and was absolutely dominant in Western Canada. They have slowly but surely letting it slide. I remember around 2005 when YEG-MSP was served by up to 3 A320's daily. Even in the slow season they had no less than 2 A319's on the route. It's sad to see that loyalty that NWA so carefully built being systematically dismantled.


How are COVID cuts “systematic dismantlem[ent]?”


That was also during a time when Alberta’s oil economy was a lot healthier.


When Delta took over NWA they served somewhere around 11 (or more) Canadian destinations and in most of those they were the dominant carrier to the USA.

Even before Covid Delta was the dominant carrier in only 2 of the destinations that were left.

I understand your argument about the Edmonton economy but at no time in the last 20-30 years (through many economic downturns) has Delta/NWA had less than 2 flights a day into YEG and usually more. This is a cancellation. This is not a suspension. Delta is quitting.
The point is that Delta has not tried like NWA did in Canada.
Planecrzy
 
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:51 am

Cubsrule wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

OKC and SAT cuts I understand - they can aggregate traffic at the larger/closer/more route frequency DFW hub.

ABE, AVP, HVN, ITH are more of head-scratchers: PHL is the close hub. This is going to be worth watching over time: Has AA chosen to prioritize CLT over PHL?


There was a time when *ALL* HVN and ITH had from US were Dash 8's to PHL. I agree with your confusion on those two plus AVP...sort of punts a lot of Europe traffic from
those cities (but how much was there?) and makes any NE connecting much less desirable (ITH to HVN, for example, just got at least an hour longer). At least ABE is a bit more like PAE is to SEA in that passengers can just drive to PHL if they need to...prioritizing CLT makes sense out of there.


I’m not sure it’s really that illogical. There’s next to no O&D from those small northeast markets to PHL and not a heck of a lot of O&D to places better served from PHL (nobody is flying ITH-PHL-PIT or AVP-PHL-BOS). So why not increase service to the larger hub?


Given the experienced and expected declines in traffic, this makes sense. Going forward, are we expecting more of these as PHL is the primary TA gateway? Redirect spokes with no TA onward traffic?
 
Atlwarrior
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:59 am

alfa164 wrote:
tlhgator wrote:
enilria wrote:
FAQ
AS ATL-CHS AUG 0>1.0[0]
This is a rather odd ball route for AS to begin flying. Possibly a way to Keep the Boeing traffic moving between SC and WA?


I suspect that is a SEA-ATL-CHS-SEA routing.


I flew SEA to ATL on AS July 6, it was about 70% full.
 
WA707atMSP
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Mon Jul 13, 2020 12:05 pm

Chuska wrote:
KG AIA-DEN OCT 3>1.7[1.7] NOV 3>1.7[1.7] DEC 3>1.7[1.7]
KG CVN-DEN NOV 1.7>0[0] DEC 1.7>0[0]
KG DEN-TEX AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 0.3>1.3[1.0] OCT 0>1.0[0.5]
KG MSP-TVF NOV 1.7>0[0] DEC 1.7>0[0]

Except for DEN-TEX, these are all EAS routes. None of them should be changing, must be a misfile.


I'm a strong supporter of the EAS program, but I still question why Thief River Falls is a part of it. Grand Forks is less than an hour away, and the main taxi company in Thief River Falls (Northland) offers service there for people who don't want to drive.

I haven't logged Thief River Falls yet, so now I'm planning a trip there next month, to log it this summer in case Thief River Falls loses its scheduled service after the Cares act expires.
 
WA707atMSP
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Mon Jul 13, 2020 12:16 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
DLASFlyer wrote:
Flown Delta to Edmonton many times. That will be a big hole in the network if permanent.


YEG joins YOW and YXE into the “suspended indefinitely” category. I wonder how long before YHZ, YQB and YEG follow suit. I wonder if the latter survives with 70 years of DL/NW history in Winnipeg?


Northwest / Delta has actually served Winnipeg for 89 years. Flights there began in Feb 1931, initially on a Winnipeg-Pembina-Grand Forks-Fargo-Minneapolis route.

Northwest even served Winnipeg with DC-10s in the 1970s.

Northwest began service to Edmonton in 1946, as a stop on their newly awarded Anchorage-Minneapolis route. Edmonton was suspended in the early 1960s, and resumed in 1974.
 
Eiszeit
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:AFTERMATH;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:13 pm

chonetsao wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
Transatlantic traffic is done for 2020. More cut for August and September ahead, as US has no intention to relax EU travel ban yet. I worry this may last until March 2021, that would be a disaster. I do hope the travel ban can be relaxed a little bit by middle of August so at least airlines can savage the remaining of winter season.


It's the other way around. The EU has no intention of relaxing the US travel ban it applied this month. The US, Brazil, Iran, and Russia are the epicenters of the pandemic and the US will remain in that club for some time,. TATL will be bare bones through year-end.


US had the EU travel ban for months now since MARCH. EU only started to ban US traveller recently as a collective effort. But please notice the EU policy is ADVISORY. Each government within EU has their own policy. Basically EU is recommending a ban for US travellers, but it is up to each individual state government to decide, of which many EU state government had taken the position (understandably). So far US travellers can travel to Ireland, Croatia, UK and some other EU states.

Also USA is doing as badly as EU on the virus control. If you put all EU country together, the numbers are not any better than the US. Less infections numbers yes but far higher death numbers. I should stop here now, otherwise this post will be moved to Covid thread. So let me wrap it up. The current travel ban is serving a purpose, but it needs to be relaxed slowly and both US and EU need to sit down together to slowly opening up to each other. EU could have down what UK is doing, ask US travellers to take mandatory 14 days self isolation. Yet it decided to have a blanket ban. I think EU is more flexible in terms of lifting travel ban, but that requires US to reciprocal.


Please notice that nothing is advisory about the ban, you are confusing EU and Schengen, US travellers are banned from the Schengen-zone.
 
DakotaFlyer
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:16 pm

WA707atMSP wrote:
Chuska wrote:
KG AIA-DEN OCT 3>1.7[1.7] NOV 3>1.7[1.7] DEC 3>1.7[1.7]
KG CVN-DEN NOV 1.7>0[0] DEC 1.7>0[0]
KG DEN-TEX AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 0.3>1.3[1.0] OCT 0>1.0[0.5]
KG MSP-TVF NOV 1.7>0[0] DEC 1.7>0[0]

Except for DEN-TEX, these are all EAS routes. None of them should be changing, must be a misfile.


I'm a strong supporter of the EAS program, but I still question why Thief River Falls is a part of it. Grand Forks is less than an hour away, and the main taxi company in Thief River Falls (Northland) offers service there for people who don't want to drive.

I haven't logged Thief River Falls yet, so now I'm planning a trip there next month, to log it this summer in case Thief River Falls loses its scheduled service after the Cares act expires.


Dig-Key, Polaris, Marvin and Arctic Cat put big money behind continued service at Thief River Falls.

Interesting this route is already suspended as it just started service in June of 2020. I assume it has to be a misfile
 
DakotaFlyer
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:17 pm

WA707atMSP wrote:
Chuska wrote:
KG AIA-DEN OCT 3>1.7[1.7] NOV 3>1.7[1.7] DEC 3>1.7[1.7]
KG CVN-DEN NOV 1.7>0[0] DEC 1.7>0[0]
KG DEN-TEX AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 0.3>1.3[1.0] OCT 0>1.0[0.5]
KG MSP-TVF NOV 1.7>0[0] DEC 1.7>0[0]

Except for DEN-TEX, these are all EAS routes. None of them should be changing, must be a misfile.


I'm a strong supporter of the EAS program, but I still question why Thief River Falls is a part of it. Grand Forks is less than an hour away, and the main taxi company in Thief River Falls (Northland) offers service there for people who don't want to drive.

I haven't logged Thief River Falls yet, so now I'm planning a trip there next month, to log it this summer in case Thief River Falls loses its scheduled service after the Cares act expires.


Dig-Key, Polaris, Marvin and Arctic Cat put big money behind continued service at Thief River Falls.

Interesting this route is already suspended as it just started service in June of 2020. I assume it has to be a misfile
 
Dominion301
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Mon Jul 13, 2020 5:44 pm

WA707atMSP wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
DLASFlyer wrote:
Flown Delta to Edmonton many times. That will be a big hole in the network if permanent.


YEG joins YOW and YXE into the “suspended indefinitely” category. I wonder how long before YHZ, YQB and YEG follow suit. I wonder if the latter survives with 70 years of DL/NW history in Winnipeg?


Northwest / Delta has actually served Winnipeg for 89 years. Flights there began in Feb 1931, initially on a Winnipeg-Pembina-Grand Forks-Fargo-Minneapolis route.

Northwest even served Winnipeg with DC-10s in the 1970s.

Northwest began service to Edmonton in 1946, as a stop on their newly awarded Anchorage-Minneapolis route. Edmonton was suspended in the early 1960s, and resumed in 1974.


Is AA still at YEG to PHX or is AA out of YEG too like at YOW?
 
FSDan
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:10 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
WA707atMSP wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:

YEG joins YOW and YXE into the “suspended indefinitely” category. I wonder how long before YHZ, YQB and YEG follow suit. I wonder if the latter survives with 70 years of DL/NW history in Winnipeg?


Northwest / Delta has actually served Winnipeg for 89 years. Flights there began in Feb 1931, initially on a Winnipeg-Pembina-Grand Forks-Fargo-Minneapolis route.

Northwest even served Winnipeg with DC-10s in the 1970s.

Northwest began service to Edmonton in 1946, as a stop on their newly awarded Anchorage-Minneapolis route. Edmonton was suspended in the early 1960s, and resumed in 1974.


Is AA still at YEG to PHX or is AA out of YEG too like at YOW?


I'm pretty sure AA didn't plan on operating PHX-YEG this winter, even before COVID.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
WA707atMSP
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:21 pm

DakotaFlyer wrote:
WA707atMSP wrote:
Chuska wrote:
KG AIA-DEN OCT 3>1.7[1.7] NOV 3>1.7[1.7] DEC 3>1.7[1.7]
KG CVN-DEN NOV 1.7>0[0] DEC 1.7>0[0]
KG DEN-TEX AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 0.3>1.3[1.0] OCT 0>1.0[0.5]
KG MSP-TVF NOV 1.7>0[0] DEC 1.7>0[0]

Except for DEN-TEX, these are all EAS routes. None of them should be changing, must be a misfile.


I'm a strong supporter of the EAS program, but I still question why Thief River Falls is a part of it. Grand Forks is less than an hour away, and the main taxi company in Thief River Falls (Northland) offers service there for people who don't want to drive.

I haven't logged Thief River Falls yet, so now I'm planning a trip there next month, to log it this summer in case Thief River Falls loses its scheduled service after the Cares act expires.


Dig-Key, Polaris, Marvin and Arctic Cat put big money behind continued service at Thief River Falls.

Interesting this route is already suspended as it just started service in June of 2020. I assume it has to be a misfile


It's nice to see Denver Air Connection at MSP, but if Thief River Falls' employers invested to ensure air service there, I'm surprised they did not contract with Sky West / DL*, so they would be able to get online connections to Delta's network at MSP.

You've raised an excellent point about Thief River Falls, though - few people outside Minnesota know how strong the economy there has become. UPS even flies there, because of all the cargo generated by Digi Key.
 
TWFlyGuy
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:12 pm

If you do a search of Vasu Raja you'll see an interview he did on PBB...pretty insightful to why they are forging ahead with their plan. A couple of comments I found most insightful:

- Early on B/E LF was 25% at $35 a barrel oil. As that tanked it went to 9%
- Head of planning surprised him with UA's margins on int'l...so AA was underperforming previously, but benefits from not being as reliant now on int'l
- 40% of people clearing TSA are flying AA...hard to believe but interesting
- Not sure I agree with his STL comments...cost structure and WN competition much different there.

For the flights migrating from PHL to CLT, I'm wondering if scope has something to do with this. You've got a ton of mainline sitting down, RJ's too I'm sure to some degree. When you look to keep within your scope requirements, a short hop to PHL doesn't make sense on a 738 but if you move that flight to CLT, fly mainline, maintain connectivity, you win.
 
Dominion301
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:42 pm

FSDan wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
WA707atMSP wrote:

Northwest / Delta has actually served Winnipeg for 89 years. Flights there began in Feb 1931, initially on a Winnipeg-Pembina-Grand Forks-Fargo-Minneapolis route.

Northwest even served Winnipeg with DC-10s in the 1970s.

Northwest began service to Edmonton in 1946, as a stop on their newly awarded Anchorage-Minneapolis route. Edmonton was suspended in the early 1960s, and resumed in 1974.


Is AA still at YEG to PHX or is AA out of YEG too like at YOW?


I'm pretty sure AA didn't plan on operating PHX-YEG this winter, even before COVID.


At least YEG still has AS. All YOW has is UA.
 
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usdcaguy
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:13 pm

Interesting how DL has trimmed some of the traditional NW markets out of MSP in the past year or so. YEG, YQR and YXE are all gone now, likely due to the WS tie-up, but the connections on WS at this point aren't even a competitive offering if connecting out of a US secondary market. YQR doesn't even have nonstop service to the US on any carrier. It will be interesting to see if any of this service resumes at some point. I'm also curious to know whether the CBP facility in YEG will remain open with so few direct flights to the US.
 
airlineworker
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Tue Jul 14, 2020 2:25 am

Good to see AA at HVN going from PHL to CLT service. Two flights daily except for Saturday, one flight. AA always carried more passengers on the BDL-CLT route than the BDL-PHL route. Should hold true for CLT-HVN flights.The same E175's on the flights.
 
alo2yyz
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Tue Jul 14, 2020 2:28 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
FSDan wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:

Is AA still at YEG to PHX or is AA out of YEG too like at YOW?


I'm pretty sure AA didn't plan on operating PHX-YEG this winter, even before COVID.


At least YEG still has AS. All YOW has is UA.


I really don't understand why US-based carriers are leaving Canada in droves. YOW only has AA..YEG only AS...and there was talk early this year or late last on the Toronto thread about AA's drawdown at YYZ if memory serves.

Sure, it's mostly Canadian POS, small population, high airport fees etc etc but surely a place like YOW or YEG would merit a token presence from more than one US-flagged carrier.

But, presumably people at the airline know more than I do about the profitable places to sendtheir aircraft.
 
Dominion301
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Tue Jul 14, 2020 6:05 pm

alo2yyz wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
FSDan wrote:

I'm pretty sure AA didn't plan on operating PHX-YEG this winter, even before COVID.


At least YEG still has AS. All YOW has is UA.


I really don't understand why US-based carriers are leaving Canada in droves. YOW only has AA..YEG only AS...and there was talk early this year or late last on the Toronto thread about AA's drawdown at YYZ if memory serves.

Sure, it's mostly Canadian POS, small population, high airport fees etc etc but surely a place like YOW or YEG would merit a token presence from more than one US-flagged carrier.

But, presumably people at the airline know more than I do about the profitable places to sendtheir aircraft.


Actually it's only UA that's left at YOW...but they're still suspended until at least August. You mean UA have pulled out of YEG too? I thought it's only a suspension with them?

In the current environment nobody's making money on transborder routes. AA without an alliance partner, briefly in 2018 made a push to add more service, but then pulled most of that back within months. AA's really neglected Canada, even before Covid. US used to fly YOW-PHL 4-5x/day, plus daliy CLT. At the end AA only had two departures on the route with no afternoon/evening peak departure. Completely unattractive.

The big shocker was DL pulling out of YOW instead of just suspending service temporarily. The reason why it was so shocking is DL were planning on a 50% YOW capacity increase this summer over last year.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Sun Jul 19, 2020 2:59 pm

UPDATE:
As of July 19, 2020 it looks like the update day has changed to a different day, probably Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday. It appears this is a permanent change, rather than temporary, but we will see. So we will all be patient...
 
jasoncrh
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:02 pm

I know airline people who told me that there was an update on Thursday/ Friday this week. LOTS of changes for August and September, very close in for August. You may want to look.
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:05 pm

enilria wrote:
UPDATE:
As of July 19, 2020 it looks like the update day has changed to a different day, probably Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday. It appears this is a permanent change, rather than temporary, but we will see. So we will all be patient...

Thanks for the update enilria.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:AFTERMATH;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:06 pm

chonetsao wrote:
Transatlantic traffic is done for 2020. More cut for August and September ahead, as US has no intention to relax EU travel ban yet. I worry this may last until March 2021, that would be a disaster. I do hope the travel ban can be relaxed a little bit by middle of August so at least airlines can savage the remaining of winter season.


The EU has a ban on the US too and it's highly unlikely to zero chance they will lift it for the next month and probably more given that COVID19 in the USA is not under control.
 
Jshank83
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:07 pm

jasoncrh wrote:
I know airline people who told me that there was an update on Thursday/ Friday this week. LOTS of changes for August and September, very close in for August. You may want to look.


WN did one on Thursday. I think DL did one Friday or Saturday. Will be interesting to see what comes out in the update. Hoping it is tomorrow.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:12 pm

jasoncrh wrote:
I know airline people who told me that there was an update on Thursday/ Friday this week. LOTS of changes for August and September, very close in for August. You may want to look.

It's not that there weren't any changes I'm sure, they don't update the database to end users in real-time. That only happens once per week. It has moved several times since I have been doing this. It was on Tuesday, Friday, and Saturday in the past.
 
joeblow10
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:AFTERMATH;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:51 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
Transatlantic traffic is done for 2020. More cut for August and September ahead, as US has no intention to relax EU travel ban yet. I worry this may last until March 2021, that would be a disaster. I do hope the travel ban can be relaxed a little bit by middle of August so at least airlines can savage the remaining of winter season.


The EU has a ban on the US too and it's highly unlikely to zero chance they will lift it for the next month and probably more given that COVID19 in the USA is not under control.


I’d say there is very little, if any, doubt the TATL cuts and even the ban will be there thru the end of 2020 and probably past 1Q21. Even if we get a vaccine in Dec or Jan (a HUGE if), I keep saying - won’t be widely distributed for 4-6 months

It certainly will be interesting to watch how the vaccine pans out with those who get it in terms of travel. Are we going back to the immunity passport idea? We’ll see
 
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SANFan
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:42 pm

I've already found some very interesting & exciting adds at AS by poking around in their Flight Schedules last night; apparently they were loaded yesterday sometime:

beginning Nov 20, AS will start SAN & PDX - CUN nonstops! SAN will be 4x weekly and PDX is showing twice weekly; the flights as of now appear to op into April.

Beginning March 11, 2021, AS will begin flying SAN & SJC to MSO, connecting both of their Focus Cities with first-ever nonstop service to Montana. Both flights show daily.

I'm sure there are other new routes but so far I've been searching for my priority city and am not done yet! Very nice adds for SAN so far!!

bb
 
USAirALB
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:31 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
alo2yyz wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:

At least YEG still has AS. All YOW has is UA.


I really don't understand why US-based carriers are leaving Canada in droves. YOW only has AA..YEG only AS...and there was talk early this year or late last on the Toronto thread about AA's drawdown at YYZ if memory serves.

Sure, it's mostly Canadian POS, small population, high airport fees etc etc but surely a place like YOW or YEG would merit a token presence from more than one US-flagged carrier.

But, presumably people at the airline know more than I do about the profitable places to sendtheir aircraft.


Actually it's only UA that's left at YOW...but they're still suspended until at least August. You mean UA have pulled out of YEG too? I thought it's only a suspension with them?

In the current environment nobody's making money on transborder routes. AA without an alliance partner, briefly in 2018 made a push to add more service, but then pulled most of that back within months. AA's really neglected Canada, even before Covid. US used to fly YOW-PHL 4-5x/day, plus daliy CLT. At the end AA only had two departures on the route with no afternoon/evening peak departure. Completely unattractive.

The big shocker was DL pulling out of YOW instead of just suspending service temporarily. The reason why it was so shocking is DL were planning on a 50% YOW capacity increase this summer over last year.

Last fall I noticed AA resumed mainline service on CLT-YYZ since US went all Express back in 2010-2012. I noticed that it was operating throughout this pandemic, and it just must have disappeared from the schedules within the last couple of weeks.
SANFan wrote:
I've already found some very interesting & exciting adds at AS by poking around in their Flight Schedules last night; apparently they were loaded yesterday sometime:

beginning Nov 20, AS will start SAN & PDX - CUN nonstops! SAN will be 4x weekly and PDX is showing twice weekly; the flights as of now appear to op into April.

Beginning March 11, 2021, AS will begin flying SAN & SJC to MSO, connecting both of their Focus Cities with first-ever nonstop service to Montana. Both flights show daily.

I'm sure there are other new routes but so far I've been searching for my priority city and am not done yet! Very nice adds for SAN so far!!

bb

I wish AS would re-enter the SAN-WAS market, or start SJC-WAS. I know they used to do SAN-BWI but it was cut a couple of months back. BWI transcon flights tend to have horrible yields IIRC. It would be nice if they had the slots to do SAN-DCA. US did this for a couple of years before the AA merger and then switched the slot to LAX IIRC.
RJ85, F70, E135, E140, E145, E70, E75, E90, CR2, CR7, CR9, 717, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 744ER, 752, 753, 762, 772, 77E, 77W, 789, 319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 343, 359, 388
 
seatback
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Re: OAG Changes 7/12/2020:EVOLUTION;NK Cuts Aug;AA Reshapes PHL;B6 LAX Swap;DL Closes YEG;EI Out of MSP;DE Cuts SEA-MUC

Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:38 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
enilria wrote:
15 departures moved out of PHL. I wonder what the logic is? Congestion is no longer an issue.
**AA ABE-CLT OCT 3>4[3] NOV 3>4[3] DEC 3>4[3] JAN 3>4[3] FEB 3>4[3] MAR 3>4[3] APR 3>4[3] MAY 3>4[2]
**AA ABE-PHL SEP 3>0[3] OCT 4>0[3] NOV 4>0[3] DEC 4>0[3] JAN 4>0[3] FEB 4>0[3] MAR 4>0[3] APR 4>0[3] MAY 4>0[0.0]
**AA AVP-CLT OCT 4>5[4] NOV 3>4[4] DEC 3>4[4] JAN 3>4[4] FEB 3>4[4] MAR 3>4[4] APR 4>5[4] MAY 4>5[2]
**AA AVP-PHL SEP 3>0[3] OCT 4>0[3] NOV 4>0[3] DEC 4>0[3] JAN 4>0[3] FEB 4>0[3] MAR 4>0[3] APR 4>0[3] MAY 4>0[0.1]
*AA BDA-JFK SEP 0.7>0[1.0] OCT 1.0>0[1.0] NOV 1.0>0[1.0] DEC 1.0>0.5[1.0]
AA BDA-MIA SEP 0>0.7[1.0] OCT 0.8>1.0[1.0]
AA CLT-FNT SEP 1.9>3[1.8] OCT 2>3[2] NOV 2>3[1.9] DEC 2>3[1.9] JAN 2>3[2] FEB 2>3[2] MAR 2>3[2] APR 2>3[2] MAY 2>3[1.0]
**AA CLT-HVN SEP 0>1.4[0.1] OCT 0>1.8[0.1] NOV 0>1.9[0.2] DEC 0>1.9[0.1] JAN 0>1.8[0.1] FEB 0>1.9[0.2] MAR 0>1.9[0.1] APR 0>2[0.1] MAY 0>2[0.0]
**AA CLT-ITH SEP 0.1>1.5[0] OCT 0.2>2[0.1] NOV 0.1>2[0.2] DEC 0.1>2[0.1] JAN 0.2>2[0.1] FEB 0.1>2[0.2] MAR 0.1>2[0.1] APR 0>2[0.1] MAY 0>2[0.0]
AA CLT-OKC SEP 2>3[3] OCT 2>3[3]
AA DFW-FAT APR 5>4[3] MAY 5>4[1.9]
**AA HVN-PHL SEP 3>0.5[3] OCT 3>0[3] NOV 3>0[3] DEC 3>0[3] JAN 3>0[1.6] FEB 3>0[1.8] MAR 3>0[2] APR 3>0[2] MAY 3>0[0.7]
**AA ITH-PHL SEP 3>0.5[3] OCT 3>0[3] NOV 3>0[4] DEC 3>0[3] JAN 3>0[3] FEB 3>0[3] MAR 3>0[3] APR 2>0[3] MAY 2>0[0.7]
AA LAX-SJD JAN 1.2>1.9[0.9] FEB 1.0>1.9[0.9] MAR 1.6>2[1.0]
AA MIA-STT NOV 2.4>3.0[2.1]
**AA OKC-PHL SEP 1.5>0[0.9] OCT 1.8>0[1.0] NOV 1.0>0[1.0] DEC 1.0>0[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0] MAR 1.0>0[1.0] APR 1.0>0[1.0] MAY 1.0>0[0]
**AA PHL-SAT SEP 0.7>0[0] OCT 1.0>0[0] NOV 1.0>0[0.9] DEC 1.0>0[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[0.3] FEB 1.0>0[0] MAR 1.0>0[0] APR 1.0>0[0] MAY 1.0>0[0]
AA PHL-STT NOV 0.4>1.0[0.4]


OKC and SAT cuts I understand - they can aggregate traffic at the larger/closer/more route frequency DFW hub.

ABE, AVP, HVN, ITH are more of head-scratchers: PHL is the close hub. This is going to be worth watching over time: Has AA chosen to prioritize CLT over PHL?

I believe there are several factors being used by AA to make these decisions. Most of the cities being shifted have low O&D with PHL and can be connected at lower cost at CLT. Since CLT is a larger hub, it probably increases connecting options. I’m sure AA knows the prevailing connecting options for each of these cities and are making sure those needs are being met. From a flyers perspective, connecting in PHL in a small RJ is a gamble during bad weather seasons. RJ are the first to be delayed and cancelled when the going gets tough. When ERI shifted from PHL to CLT, reliability went up. What I don’t quite get is why a single flight to PHL isn’t kept to meet international flights or to fill an O&D need. Same thing with UA shifting flights from EWR to IAD. Maybe there just isn’t enough of a predicted upside.



I agree. At least through CLT there's connecting traffic PLUS O&D. W/ PHL, it's only connecting traffic. Also, I would expect State College to follow suit.

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