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LondonXtreme
Topic Author
Posts: 164
Joined: Mon Sep 24, 2018 4:24 pm

Transatlantic flights between US and UK in the Post Covid-19

Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:10 am

While UK enforced 14 days quarentine rule and US suspended traveller from the UK. That's tremendous impact on flights between these two countries. I really sad to see this as I grew up in UK and now live in US, I travel periodically and frequently between these two countries.

Except recent move announced by AA, I'm pessimistic on other big players:

BA flies to 27 destinations in US and far more than other airlines in EU does. US market is crucial to BA's profit. Will BA cut some secondary cities in US? like CHS, BNA, PIT, MSY, BWI, etc?

UA used to serve more daily flights to LHR compare to FRA in Pre Covid-19. Now, UA has more flights to FRA. Ex: UA flies SFO-FRA daily, but not SFO-LHR. UA used to fly 5 daily EWR-LHR, and right now 1 daily EWR-LHR which is the same as EWR-FRA(considering UA only serves 1 daily EWR-FRA before Covid-19). Can UA sustain all LHR flights in Post Covid-19 as it was?

Will DL reducing the capacity of LHR flight and let VS to do the heavy lifting?
 
dreamliner8910
Posts: 15
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2019 8:19 pm

Re: Transatlantic flights between US and UK in the Post Covid-19

Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:22 am

Like every other thread on post-covid operations, it is and will continue to be completely unknown to even the commercial teams and route developers at the airlines. Until there is control of the virus (self-discipline, vaccine) or that it accepted into life, we will see barriers placed by both governments (travel bans, quarantine periods) and the population (unwillingness to travel). To try and predict what state the aviation world will be in September (what bans in place, which countries have things under control) is naive, let alone trying to predict what airlines will be doing after covid. The first question will always be, when will things be normal. If you can't put a date on that, then the rest is a waste of time
 
raylee67
Posts: 934
Joined: Mon Oct 24, 2011 11:06 pm

Re: Transatlantic flights between US and UK in the Post Covid-19

Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:23 am

You need to define "post-COVID" first. Do you mean after we have an effective vaccine or herd immunity has set in? For me, that's what it would mean. If you are just talking about the coming few months, then it's the virus (and people who refuses to wear masks and social distance) that would make the decision on how the world would look like.

If you are talking about my "post-COVID" world, i.e. we are really back to the pre-COVID normal biologically, then I would think demand will actually resume quite quickly back to original level (or very close to original level) for leisure travel. But business travel will take a hit permanently. Many businesses will be asking why their people need to travel and meet with others personally if they have had most of the work done OK with video conferencing for such a long time. Deutsche Bank CEO already said in an interview with Bloomberg (it's on Youtube, you can search there) that they will cut travel and office space massively post-COVID, simply because they found that they actually don't need those.

I would think routes like LHR-JFK/EWR will be affected more by such business travel cut-back, while leisure routes such as LAS or PHX or SAN or MCO or MIA would be less affected. For JFK/EWR-LHR, the airlines can maintain frequency easily by downsizing the aircraft (e.g. from 77W/772 to 788 or even 321).
319/20/21 332/33 342/43/45 359/51 388 707 717 732/36/3G/38/39 74R/42/43/44/4E/48 757 762/63 772/7L/73/7W 788/89 D10 M80 135/40/45 175/90 DH1/4 CRJ/R7 L10
AY LH OU SR BA FI LX
AA DL UA NW AC CP WS FL NK PD
CI NH SQ KA CX JL BR OZ TG KE CA CZ NZ JQ RS
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8499
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Transatlantic flights between US and UK in the Post Covid-19

Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:40 am

LondonXtreme wrote:
BA flies to 27 destinations in US and far more than other airlines in EU does. US market is crucial to BA's profit. Will BA cut some secondary cities in US? like CHS, BNA, PIT, MSY, BWI, etc?


It's pretty obvious capacity will be cut. It can't be know now if that's going to mean frequencies on heavy routes, like LHR-JFK/BOS; or if it will mean route cuts (or both). For secondary destinations the problem is minimum increment of capacity, meaning a 787-8 today. They can cut frequency to less than daily but less than 3x or 4x weekly there's little point - no frequency means not attractive to business travelers.

LondonXtreme wrote:
Will DL reducing the capacity of LHR flight and let VS to do the heavy lifting?


No. DL pilots would protest that within a week of the bids being launched. DL is going to need to maintain some sort of balance between own and partner flying, no matter how many routes and frequencies need to be cut.
Last edited by MIflyer12 on Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
tobsw
Posts: 140
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2011 2:29 pm

Re: Transatlantic flights between US and UK in the Post Covid-19

Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:42 am

We are, by no means, in a post-COVID-19 era. We are right in the middle of COVID-19.

Predicting passenger traffic and route performance is almost impossible.

My prediction, however, is that the winter season will be a total disaster for aviation - as border restrictions won't be lifted that easily. If airlines are struggling to fill planes now, in the summer, during holidays... can't imagine airlines filling planes in September, October, nNovember, December, January, February and March.
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 741
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Transatlantic flights between US and UK in the Post Covid-19

Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:57 am

TATL will be "dead" as long as one side or the other (or both) do not have the virus under control. Right now it is out of control on the western side so there is restriction in place and rightly so. TBH I think that there will be no recovery of TATL flying until next spring (excluding Canada to EU as there is some control on the spread). The current state of the US and MEX in handling the pandemic points to a horrific winter season. When you have flu and covid patients streaming into hospitals, that will have to be treated the same (as if both have covid) until test confirm the actual infection, hospitals will not be able to cope. Going into this mess with 60'000+ infections (relatively fewer in MEX but still not contained) is the perfect storm. No sane government will lift travel restrictions to said countries in the near future.
 
User avatar
GCT64
Posts: 1852
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2007 6:34 pm

Re: Transatlantic flights between US and UK in the Post Covid-19

Mon Jul 13, 2020 9:40 am

I, and many colleagues and friends, were regular flyers (once a month or more) between the UK and US for business. I now don't know anyone who thinks that they will be travelling to the US on business this year (other than one dual-passport holder who has made one trip). I had originally (back in April) thought that TATL might re-start for me in September, but early 2021 now seems more likely.

Addressing other longer-term effects, I also don't think I'll be doing as much TATL as I previously was before-Covid.
Flown in: A20N,A21N,A30B,A306,A310,A319,A320,A321,A332,A333,A343,A346,A359,A388,BA11,BU31,(..56 more types..),VC10,WESX
 
TC957
Posts: 3869
Joined: Wed May 23, 2012 1:12 pm

Re: Transatlantic flights between US and UK in the Post Covid-19

Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:49 am

I'm actually surprised at just how many BA flights are still operating on TATL routes currently.
Surely more for cargo than the few passengers they must still get.
I think what GCT64 says sums up the reality well. Multiply that thinking on future travel plans by thousands of businesses and it's easy to see TATL traffic won't be at pre-Covid levels for a very long time.
 
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ChrisNH38
Posts: 267
Joined: Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:53 pm

Re: Transatlantic flights between US and UK in the Post Covid-19

Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:56 am

If BA can’t manage the 4x LHR-BOS flights (and they probably can’t), what happens to the slots?
https://my.flightradar24.com/ChrisNH
 
Tristar787
Posts: 9
Joined: Sat Jun 13, 2015 11:08 am

Re: Transatlantic flights between US and UK in the Post Covid-19

Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:01 am

I’ve had to fly TATL twice out of LHR since the pandemic began, the most recently being a week ago. I was actually surprised as there were more people on the flights than I had anticipated. Of course it was nowhere near as full as it would normally be this time of year but the J cabin on my flight had about 15 people. Some of them were clearly on business as I observed them working the entire flight. There will definitely be much reduced demand for the foreseeable future but it appears that ‘essential’ service of some sort is certainly necessary.
 
CRJ5000
Posts: 149
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:06 pm

Re: Transatlantic flights between US and UK in the Post Covid-19

Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:23 am

Not to go off topic, but we all remember the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull back in 2010. Who would have thought that 10 years later we would have all probably preferred the eruption 100x over in comparison to whats now going on?

As far as TATL service goes, I imagine that even after things start to open up, it will be years until some of the secondary markets come back. Everything Covid related is nothing more than a wild ass guess though. The only thing certain right now is uncertainty.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5033
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: Transatlantic flights between US and UK in the Post Covid-19

Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:10 pm

tobsw wrote:
We are, by no means, in a post-COVID-19 era. We are right in the middle of COVID-19.

Predicting passenger traffic and route performance is almost impossible.

My prediction, however, is that the winter season will be a total disaster for aviation - as border restrictions won't be lifted that easily. If airlines are struggling to fill planes now, in the summer, during holidays... can't imagine airlines filling planes in September, October, nNovember, December, January, February and March.

I think counties are going to go to a testing model. Where you can enter with a negative test. Or possibly proof of a negative test before you travel And an additional test when you arrive at the destination airport. As bad a the US response has been staying isolated from the US for a year or more might not be feasible.
 
tobsw
Posts: 140
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2011 2:29 pm

Re: Transatlantic flights between US and UK in the Post Covid-19

Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:27 pm

32andBelow wrote:
I think counties are going to go to a testing model. Where you can enter with a negative test. Or possibly proof of a negative test before you travel And an additional test when you arrive at the destination airport. As bad a the US response has been staying isolated from the US for a year or more might not be feasible.


There are many issue with the testing model, which I think, can't be overcome in a short term (otherwise, it would have been widely implemented).

Anyway, only time will tell.
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 741
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: Transatlantic flights between US and UK in the Post Covid-19

Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:35 pm

I still think people are underestimating what Zoom, WebEx, Skype, and all the other now endless video systems are going to do to business travel. Sure being there will always be a better experience but the cost of sending several employees by J seat to Europe vs. the cost of WebEx will prevail for awhile. I think after time the experience of trying to do everything through video will prove inadequate and problematic so some travel will re-open. But the bean counters and suits mostly will have the attitude of "make it work." I'm already seeing this in the technology/software deployment field from both vendor and customer side. It's going to suck for me over the next few years because I see disaster after disaster and the suits not really giving a damn about quality of outcomes. Just someone to heap their blame on for being so cheap.

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