I view this more of a situation where AA would be struggling to fill long haul international flights from BOS and JFK to anywhere but LHR, given the reduced presence by AA in both markets. And if AA can’t offer TATL flights to anywhere but LHR, they are essentially giving up the BOS and JFK business markets. Similarly, B6 is losing business pax to DL also because of their lack of any TATL service.
Thus AA provides the necessary TATL service B6 needs to be competitive, and B6 provides the necessary feed that AA needs to operate TATL beyond LHR from BOS/JFK. TATL is where I see the value in this partnership, and far less significant is any B6/AA domestic connections or codeshares that may occur.
I think there are a lot of AA ff in BOS area. With this move, those ff have no reason to move to DL. While at the same time, DL/UA ff now have a lot of reasons to move to AA. Also, there is more reason for people who traditionally stick with legacy airlines to try out JetBlue. What's the rationale for DL in BOS now?
Keep in mind, this does not stop JetBlue from launching TATL service. That's still going forward. The big deal here is all the slots/gates jetBlue will be getting at JFK/LGA/EWR. AA may have more feed now to try certain longer range markets that it couldn't try before. We will see.
40 slots or less, is less than AA needs to operate hub and int'l flying from JFK, plus if AA truly wanted to get rid of these slots why would they not lease them to B6 or something creative........you know..... since the center piece of this agreement is B6 feeding AA long-haul from JFK!
a post-COVID schedule in peak summer month probably looks like this
1x Caribbean leisure
40 to 45 flights sound about right. AA probably had close to 120 slots before this started.
Your numbers are leaving out many destinations:
1. AA had 105 slots as of S19, that's public info, so no need to speculate on that. You are saying they got rid of 70, that would be 35 left.https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/he ... LS-S19.pdf
2. Your numbers assume AA cuts ALL non-hub flying within the US except SFO, all Carribean except CUN (which they have started back already), cut DCA, and no increases to hubs. Which are quite a few pills to swallow
Breaking down your analysis specifically, you left out:
All of which have a confirmed returnhttp://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx
So just long haul international, assuming all 1x daily (except 4x LHR): BCN, FCO, CDG, MXP, GRU, EZE, TLV, ATH, LHR, & MAD. (seasonal GIG offset by seasonal FCO)
That is already 13 slots + 1 CUN, so that's 21 left for domestic, of which 10+ are going to LAX.
So there are 10 slots to be split between SFO, PHX, ORD, DFW, MIA, & CLT....AND again that's assuming they cut all Caribbean, DCA/BOS, & non-hub domestic