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trueblew
Posts: 147
Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:16 pm

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:38 pm

Alias1024 wrote:
lesfalls wrote:
-"Creating seamless connections"- We are talking about JFK. Not ATL or DFW. To connect at JFK you need to exit the airside zone, take the airtran and re-enter airside. That takes a lot of time and doesn't make it the "enjoyable" experience that they proclaim it to be. No way can B6 move to T8 as their operations are too big.


I can’t imagine it would be that difficult to set up an airside bus shuttle.


My thoughts exactly. And may as well include B6's other codeshare partner terminals in the rotation to enhance connections and reduce minimum connection times for bookings.
 
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klm617
Posts: 5001
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:39 pm

TonyClifton wrote:
klm617 wrote:
RvA wrote:
It’s a good thing AA has a lot of money spare to go and fight Delta in NYC with a partner they can’t legally coordinate very much with. Curious to see how this one will work out, should be interesting.



So I'm confused if AA and B6 can't coadunate schedules with each other how are all these connection carriers able to achieve that. It's been done for eons NW/CO and NW/DL did it as well.

Capacity Purchase Agreements are not the same thing as a Codeshare. You aren’t buying a ticket on SkyWest with their flight that has an American code on it, for example.



Yes but down the road can't B6,AS and AA set the same thing up. B6 and AS operating as AA feeders like Pan Am did with Air Atlanta and Empire.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
tphuang
Posts: 5190
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:47 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
a post-COVID schedule in peak summer month probably looks like this
10x LAX
4x SFO
4x PHX
6x MIA
2x DFW
4x CLT
2x ORD
4x LHR
1x CDG
1x MAD
1x TLV
1x GRU
1x EZE
1x Caribbean leisure

40 to 45 flights sound about right. AA probably had close to 120 slots before this started.


Your numbers are leaving out many destinations:
1. AA had 105 slots as of S19, that's public info, so no need to speculate on that. You are saying they got rid of 70, that would be 35 left.
https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/he ... LS-S19.pdf

I don't know how accurate that is, but I can tell you that JetBlue had peak 175 flights a day in Summer 2019 and Delta was well over 220. That's more than the slots in that file. Simple explanation being that not every flight uses a slot.

Aside from that, those number still seemed to be low. JetBlue had scheduled in around 185 this summer and retimed some of their flights (to not be red-eyes) in order to use as many slots as possible. In fact, I was told that they were previously really under utilizing their slots. Hard for me to believe they only had 167 slots.

2. Your numbers assume AA cuts ALL non-hub flying within the US except SFO, all Carribean except CUN (which they have started back already), cut DCA, and no increases to hubs. Which are quite a few pills to swallow

Breaking down your analysis specifically, you left out:
BCN
FCO
CDG
MXP

All of which have a confirmed return
http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx

I did not leave out CDG. I don't think FCO and MXP are coming back. I take international LH schedule this far out with a grain of salt.

So just long haul international, assuming all 1x daily (except 4x LHR): BCN, FCO, CDG, MXP, GRU, EZE, TLV, ATH, LHR, & MAD. (seasonal GIG offset by seasonal FCO)

That is already 13 slots + 1 CUN, so that's 21 left for domestic, of which 10+ are going to LAX.

So there are 10 slots to be split between SFO, PHX, ORD, DFW, MIA, & CLT....AND again that's assuming they cut all Caribbean, DCA/BOS, & non-hub domestic

DCA/BOS are not coming back. I don't think ORD is coming back either. It was constantly getting cut to 1 or 2 flights a day before this. After this, it's going to get cut.

Redone schedule.
10x LAX
4x SFO
4x PHX
6x MIA
4x CLT
2x DFW
4x LHR
1x CDG
1x MAD
1x BCN
1x EZE
1x GRU
1x ATH
1x TLV
1x Caribbean/CUN leisure

42 flights.
 
TonyClifton
Posts: 217
Joined: Thu May 14, 2020 3:19 pm

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:48 pm

klm617 wrote:
TonyClifton wrote:
klm617 wrote:


So I'm confused if AA and B6 can't coadunate schedules with each other how are all these connection carriers able to achieve that. It's been done for eons NW/CO and NW/DL did it as well.

Capacity Purchase Agreements are not the same thing as a Codeshare. You aren’t buying a ticket on SkyWest with their flight that has an American code on it, for example.



Yes but down the road can't B6,AS and AA set the same thing up. B6 and AS operating as AA feeders like Pan Am did with Air Atlanta and Empire.

If JetBlue or Alaska signed a capacity purchase agreement with AA, that’s the avenue it would have to go down. Then you’d fall foul of scope clauses, CBA language, etc, and the fact that you wouldn’t buy direct JetBlue seats on American flights in this hypothetical agreement, same as how you buy a flight on a commuter airline now. Much like you don’t buy tickets on SkyWest for an American Eagle flight. Not without blowing scope to kingdom come would you see a major sign a CPA with a legacy. IANAL so I might have the finer details wrong and welcome input, but the brunt of it is that anything greater than current scope compliant CPAs won’t happen without a major rework of CBAs.
 
Philly65
Posts: 94
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2007 2:15 pm

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:53 pm

winginit wrote:
Philly65 wrote:
This is a virtual merger and given the constraints of the NYC market I am certain this will be challenged as anti-competitive.


A virtual merger? Let's see here:

- No pricing coordination
- No network coordination
- No capital planning, supply-chain, or workforce coordination
- No possible legal channel with which these carriers can pursue any sort of anti-trust immunity barring an actual merger

Pray tell, how is this a virtual merger? Be specific, and before we go accusing basic interline of being anti-competitive, know that for years and in many cases to this day, the biggest interline volumes within the US market are exchanged between the US3, often during IROPS. The standard practice has never, not once, been formally accused as being anti-competitive in any sort of meaningful setting.


There are a lot of unknowns with this "interline" arrangement. You can't answer the above from a press release. Whose metal gets preference and no pricing/scheduling coordination from a press release either. The LCCs for certain will keep an eye on this as well as AA labor.
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 1991
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Thu Jul 16, 2020 11:16 pm

gaystudpilot wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
Barron's has an article questioning if this is the beginning phases of what could be an AA/B6 merger, down the road, but quickly pivots to UA being a better fit for B6, going on to say UA would get access to JFK in a meaningful way, and B6 could rationalize EWR. I don't see either happening in the immediate, given AA's huge debt load and UA's precarious financial position as well. From a DOJ perspective, if a merger eventually materialized, I don't see it allowing UA and B6 to combine as it would give them too much in the NY Area market. AA though, could theoretically be approved, if it divests B6 assets at FLL (overlap with MIA). I've been saying an AA/B6 merger would be the solution to AA's NY problem and rationalize and streamline the northeast generally.


Whatever the combination, some of the players in the industry will be in such bad shape in 2021 that I don’t think there will be much pushback from DOJ. Perhaps a few asset divestitures.

An AA+AS+B6 threeway will breeze through.


Totally agree, and it's only a matter of time. The other merger I see happening down the road potentially is WN and UA.
 
gaystudpilot
Posts: 265
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2007 10:55 pm

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Thu Jul 16, 2020 11:25 pm

hiflyeras wrote:
gaystudpilot wrote:
This sets the stage for the eventual next round of consolidation in the industry.

-AA+AS+B6


The question then being, who acquires who? Does AS pull off a HP-style takeover of AA? And B6 is forced to come along for the ride or be left out of the party?


I’m sure there are multiple scenarios and strategies that could occur if all three parties believed the result would add greater value than remaining separate entities. I’m not an expert in M&A strategies and I doubt few on this site are.

There are a lot of players in the US airline industry. Demand will remain soft vs capacity for the next few years. Not all airlines will survive. AA is setting the stage to define its future. It’s a roll of the dice for sure. I believe an AA+AS+B6 merger is inevitable.

I also believe another pairing will follow.

I’ll leave the structure of the deals to the experts.
 
TYWoolman
Posts: 600
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 8:24 pm

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Thu Jul 16, 2020 11:26 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
gaystudpilot wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
Barron's has an article questioning if this is the beginning phases of what could be an AA/B6 merger, down the road, but quickly pivots to UA being a better fit for B6, going on to say UA would get access to JFK in a meaningful way, and B6 could rationalize EWR. I don't see either happening in the immediate, given AA's huge debt load and UA's precarious financial position as well. From a DOJ perspective, if a merger eventually materialized, I don't see it allowing UA and B6 to combine as it would give them too much in the NY Area market. AA though, could theoretically be approved, if it divests B6 assets at FLL (overlap with MIA). I've been saying an AA/B6 merger would be the solution to AA's NY problem and rationalize and streamline the northeast generally.


Whatever the combination, some of the players in the industry will be in such bad shape in 2021 that I don’t think there will be much pushback from DOJ. Perhaps a few asset divestitures.

An AA+AS+B6 threeway will breeze through.


Totally agree, and it's only a matter of time. The other merger I see happening down the road potentially is WN and UA.


But with government helping out the airlines, wouldn't any mergers now and in the near term be artificially propped up by government funding and not true market forces? And should a B6-AS-AA merger occur, Delta would love a higher-cost structured competitor where it now competes against Alaska and JetBlue.
 
winginit
Posts: 2851
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Thu Jul 16, 2020 11:29 pm

Philly65 wrote:
winginit wrote:
Philly65 wrote:
This is a virtual merger and given the constraints of the NYC market I am certain this will be challenged as anti-competitive.


A virtual merger? Let's see here:

- No pricing coordination
- No network coordination
- No capital planning, supply-chain, or workforce coordination
- No possible legal channel with which these carriers can pursue any sort of anti-trust immunity barring an actual merger

Pray tell, how is this a virtual merger? Be specific, and before we go accusing basic interline of being anti-competitive, know that for years and in many cases to this day, the biggest interline volumes within the US market are exchanged between the US3, often during IROPS. The standard practice has never, not once, been formally accused as being anti-competitive in any sort of meaningful setting.


There are a lot of unknowns with this "interline" arrangement. You can't answer the above from a press release. Whose metal gets preference and no pricing/scheduling coordination from a press release either. The LCCs for certain will keep an eye on this as well as AA labor.


This "interline" agreement? Interline agreements are the singular most common relationship between two carriers, and most major carriers around the world have interline agreements with many other airlines (the US3 have literally hundreds of them) to allow for simple baggage transfers and IROP coverage. It doesn't matter whether you can infer pricing, network, or other coordination from the press release: those things are legally forbidden between the domestic operations of two US carriers shy of an actual merger: period.
 
F27500
Posts: 831
Joined: Sun May 07, 2017 12:52 am

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 12:19 am

"Seamless access to each other's networks" ..... have any of these geniuses actually seen the distance at JFK between B6 and AA terminals? And the process of transferring ?
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 3794
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 12:27 am

F27500 wrote:
"Seamless access to each other's networks" ..... have any of these geniuses actually seen the distance at JFK between B6 and AA terminals? And the process of transferring ?


I've done T8 to T5 (CX-B6) before. It is not that bad. Especially, I-D since you have to reclaim your bags and go through security again anyway. THe main annoyance is that the T5 AirTrain stop is so far away from the check-in lobby.
 
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Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 5256
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:35 am

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
a post-COVID schedule in peak summer month probably looks like this
10x LAX
4x SFO
4x PHX
6x MIA
2x DFW
4x CLT
2x ORD
4x LHR
1x CDG
1x MAD
1x TLV
1x GRU
1x EZE
1x Caribbean leisure

40 to 45 flights sound about right. AA probably had close to 120 slots before this started.


Your numbers are leaving out many destinations:
1. AA had 105 slots as of S19, that's public info, so no need to speculate on that. You are saying they got rid of 70, that would be 35 left.
https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/he ... LS-S19.pdf

I don't know how accurate that is, but I can tell you that JetBlue had peak 175 flights a day in Summer 2019 and Delta was well over 220. That's more than the slots in that file. Simple explanation being that not every flight uses a slot.

Aside from that, those number still seemed to be low. JetBlue had scheduled in around 185 this summer and retimed some of their flights (to not be red-eyes) in order to use as many slots as possible. In fact, I was told that they were previously really under utilizing their slots. Hard for me to believe they only had 167 slots.

2. Your numbers assume AA cuts ALL non-hub flying within the US except SFO, all Carribean except CUN (which they have started back already), cut DCA, and no increases to hubs. Which are quite a few pills to swallow

Breaking down your analysis specifically, you left out:
BCN
FCO
CDG
MXP

All of which have a confirmed return
http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx

I did not leave out CDG. I don't think FCO and MXP are coming back. I take international LH schedule this far out with a grain of salt.

So just long haul international, assuming all 1x daily (except 4x LHR): BCN, FCO, CDG, MXP, GRU, EZE, TLV, ATH, LHR, & MAD. (seasonal GIG offset by seasonal FCO)

That is already 13 slots + 1 CUN, so that's 21 left for domestic, of which 10+ are going to LAX.

So there are 10 slots to be split between SFO, PHX, ORD, DFW, MIA, & CLT....AND again that's assuming they cut all Caribbean, DCA/BOS, & non-hub domestic

DCA/BOS are not coming back. I don't think ORD is coming back either. It was constantly getting cut to 1 or 2 flights a day before this. After this, it's going to get cut.

Redone schedule.
10x LAX
4x SFO
4x PHX
6x MIA
4x CLT
2x DFW
4x LHR
1x CDG
1x MAD
1x BCN
1x EZE
1x GRU
1x ATH
1x TLV
1x Caribbean/CUN leisure

42 flights.


If you have a better source than the FAA on slots please share....

Here is an article from Cranky flier in early 2019, btw AA lost a couple slots after this article was written:

"American can run 111 daily flights from JFK with the slots it has"
https://crankyflier.com/2019/04/09/afte ... this-fall/

If they wanted to cancel any of those long-haul routes, they had every opportunity to do it a week ago when they announced large int'l cuts. They directly said JFK-MXP is coming back
http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx

Again, your 70 slot reduction doesn't make sense, as why would they give up 70 slots for free?
1. Assuming your extremely aggressive cuts, they could only give up 50-60 and still be within the 80% limit.
2. They could lease them for cheap to B6, or transfer them directly. Because again, the point of this agreement is partnership in NYC
3. Giving up 70 allows for no room for growth at all for the future.....
4. Vasu mentioned in an interview in late June, that they were worried about losing slots in NYC if they made cuts. Why would he be worried if they already returned 2/3rds of them?
5. Your schedule assumptions don't make sense to get to the 70 number:
- If all non-hub flying is cut you would have to at least keep flying at the same level to hubs (if not increase hub-JFK service) since these pax will now be connecting. Codeshare flying won't cover all of that
- JFK-MIA is already operating at 5x daily, you really think they'll only add one more flight to that? JFK-CLT is already operating at 4x, & with their growth at CLT, you think they will remain the same frequency as COVID?
- You don't think AA will operate DCA, ORD, PHL, or BOS from JFK (Only leaving service to 5 Hubs!)? You don't think they will fly to anywhere in the Caribbean other than CUN?

I think you can appreciate why I am highly skeptical of what you are saying....
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 1991
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:51 am

[photoid][/photoid]
tphuang wrote:
kavok wrote:
I view this more of a situation where AA would be struggling to fill long haul international flights from BOS and JFK to anywhere but LHR, given the reduced presence by AA in both markets. And if AA can’t offer TATL flights to anywhere but LHR, they are essentially giving up the BOS and JFK business markets. Similarly, B6 is losing business pax to DL also because of their lack of any TATL service.

Thus AA provides the necessary TATL service B6 needs to be competitive, and B6 provides the necessary feed that AA needs to operate TATL beyond LHR from BOS/JFK. TATL is where I see the value in this partnership, and far less significant is any B6/AA domestic connections or codeshares that may occur.


I think there are a lot of AA ff in BOS area. With this move, those ff have no reason to move to DL. While at the same time, DL/UA ff now have a lot of reasons to move to AA. Also, there is more reason for people who traditionally stick with legacy airlines to try out JetBlue. What's the rationale for DL in BOS now?

Keep in mind, this does not stop JetBlue from launching TATL service. That's still going forward. The big deal here is all the slots/gates jetBlue will be getting at JFK/LGA/EWR. AA may have more feed now to try certain longer range markets that it couldn't try before. We will see.

Midwestindy wrote:

40 slots or less, is less than AA needs to operate hub and int'l flying from JFK, plus if AA truly wanted to get rid of these slots why would they not lease them to B6 or something creative........you know..... since the center piece of this agreement is B6 feeding AA long-haul from JFK!


a post-COVID schedule in peak summer month probably looks like this
10x LAX
4x SFO
4x PHX
6x MIA
2x DFW
4x CLT
2x ORD
4x LHR
1x CDG
1x MAD
1x TLV
1x GRU
1x EZE
1x Caribbean leisure

40 to 45 flights sound about right. AA probably had close to 120 slots before this started.


Hmm...more likely more than just what you have and you forgot some routes slated to come back. SFO would be 5 x daily, as it was pre-COVID. There is a market there for a 3 class cabin and the A321T has it. You've left out MXP and BCN, which have been slated to return. FCO will return as well, as a seasonal route and a longer one, as was planned for 2020, starting late March to end of October. GIG was mentioned as returning seasonally in 2021 (it went from year-round to seasonal, though its return depends on the COVID situation in Brazil, and like all these routes, depends on what happens in the US, which right now isn't much better. ATH will be seasonal so you forgot that too. On the domestic side, I see AA adding back SEA to 1 or 2 daily, maybe even a third if AS pulls out of the market entirely. SAN too could come back on line. B6 has only 1 flight a day. For the hubs, CLT and PHX at 4x daily seems right. More to MIA, or a consistent 772 or 77W reposition to move more pax. BDA and potentially more than 1 Caribbean leisure. CUN and SJO may come back. I would not rule out AUS and SAT. The Eagle feed into JFK though will likely never return.

You seem fixated on the end of AA at JFK and the slots returned, but returned slots are almost a moot point for the foreseeable future given how much JFK has been downsized across the board.
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 5952
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:14 am

SFO hasnt been 5 daily on a regular basis in years

It is always reduced to 4 daily
 
phlswaflyer
Posts: 90
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2013 9:02 pm

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:23 am

bigb wrote:
catiii wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Arguably the most respected network planning guy in the business... look what he has done in SEA, LAX, and now the northeast. Now with better feed, their int'l business will be much more viable


Again, how do you know B6 didn’t originate this and go to AA with it?

Or Vasu is the man because he agreed to it?


This has been in the works for awhile now. Quite frankly it doesn’t matter who it originated from, Vasu is still well respect networking planning guy in the industry with a lack of filter.



and if you ask him, he is the smartest guy in the room - unless Parker is there.
 
daron4000
Posts: 608
Joined: Mon Mar 07, 2005 12:17 pm

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:27 am

jfklganyc wrote:
SFO hasnt been 5 daily on a regular basis in years

It is always reduced to 4 daily


It was 5 daily as recently as this winter - the departure schedule from JFK was along the lines of 7:30AM, 11:00AM, 4:30PM, 5:30PM, and 9:00PM.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5190
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:42 am

Midwestindy wrote:
If you have a better source than the FAA on slots please share....

Here is an article from Cranky flier in early 2019, btw AA lost a couple slots after this article was written:

"American can run 111 daily flights from JFK with the slots it has"
https://crankyflier.com/2019/04/09/afte ... this-fall/

If they wanted to cancel any of those long-haul routes, they had every opportunity to do it a week ago when they announced large int'l cuts. They directly said JFK-MXP is coming back
http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx

Again, your 70 slot reduction doesn't make sense, as why would they give up 70 slots for free?
1. Assuming your extremely aggressive cuts, they could only give up 50-60 and still be within the 80% limit.
2. They could lease them for cheap to B6, or transfer them directly. Because again, the point of this agreement is partnership in NYC
3. Giving up 70 allows for no room for growth at all for the future.....
4. Vasu mentioned in an interview in late June, that they were worried about losing slots in NYC if they made cuts. Why would he be worried if they already returned 2/3rds of them?
5. Your schedule assumptions don't make sense to get to the 70 number:
- If all non-hub flying is cut you would have to at least keep flying at the same level to hubs (if not increase hub-JFK service) since these pax will now be connecting. Codeshare flying won't cover all of that
- JFK-MIA is already operating at 5x daily, you really think they'll only add one more flight to that? JFK-CLT is already operating at 4x, & with their growth at CLT, you think they will remain the same frequency as COVID?
- You don't think AA will operate DCA, ORD, PHL, or BOS from JFK (Only leaving service to 5 Hubs!)? You don't think they will fly to anywhere in the Caribbean other than CUN?

I think you can appreciate why I am highly skeptical of what you are saying....


It doesn't have to be 70 slots. It could be 40 or 50 and some other carriers also returned some slots. Whatever the number is, I think 40 to 45 flights a day is where they will settle at. And they won't fly to most within perimeter locations. That was the original gist of this argument, right?

I don't think they will operate to DCA/ORD/PHL/BOS. These were mostly down to 1 or 2 flights a day already. Why would they need to keep those around if they got JetBlue doing the feed now? Yes, I do think DCA-JFK on JetBlue is quite possible at this point. PHL is a goner, I'm going to look at this JetBlue thread, but I anticipate JetBlue adding a lot of these within perimeter routes that Eagle operated. if JetBlue is going to make use of AA's JFK slots, it will have to add these type of routes.

I don't know where in the Caribbeans they will fly to. Maybe it will be CUN, maybe it will be MBJ, maybe somewhere else. But stuff like SJO/BDA/ANU aren't going to come back. I think they have some sat-only flights to Caribbeans. But amongst daily, I don't see more than 1 destination. Now that AA ff have all of JetBlue's vast Caribbean network, why do they even need to operate their own flight into this region? JetBlue already has so many flights to all the major leisure spots. If you really want to stay on AA, MIA connection takes you everywhere you need to go.

As for why release slots rather than lease them. Maybe because JetBlue is the only ones able to add additional flights right now and they are not willing to pay for slots that will come for free? Maybe because lease let's 50 to 60 JFK slots + 20 to 30 slots would alarm the regulators? After all, they do want this to get signed off. Leasing that many slots would at least raise some alarm.

This comment is curious
"At JFK, American is going to rely on JetBlue to really bulk up the feed for international. To accomplish this, it could swap a morning slot for an evening slot with JetBlue since they each have better uses at those times.
"
why would they need to swap slots with JetBlue if they already have so many unused slots?
Last edited by tphuang on Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5190
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:54 am

Cointrin330 wrote:
Hmm...more likely more than just what you have and you forgot some routes slated to come back. SFO would be 5 x daily, as it was pre-COVID. There is a market there for a 3 class cabin and the A321T has it. You've left out MXP and BCN, which have been slated to return. FCO will return as well, as a seasonal route and a longer one, as was planned for 2020, starting late March to end of October. GIG was mentioned as returning seasonally in 2021 (it went from year-round to seasonal, though its return depends on the COVID situation in Brazil, and like all these routes, depends on what happens in the US, which right now isn't much better. ATH will be seasonal so you forgot that too. On the domestic side, I see AA adding back SEA to 1 or 2 daily, maybe even a third if AS pulls out of the market entirely. SAN too could come back on line. B6 has only 1 flight a day. For the hubs, CLT and PHX at 4x daily seems right. More to MIA, or a consistent 772 or 77W reposition to move more pax. BDA and potentially more than 1 Caribbean leisure. CUN and SJO may come back. I would not rule out AUS and SAT. The Eagle feed into JFK though will likely never return.

You seem fixated on the end of AA at JFK and the slots returned, but returned slots are almost a moot point for the foreseeable future given how much JFK has been downsized across the board.


it's unfortunate that I got in a debate about how many slots returned. Really my fault.

I'm trying to say that AA will be down to 40 to 45 flights a day and JetBlue will handle the feeds. I do expect them to add quite a few of JFK-STL/IND/CMH/DCA/CVG type of flights for O&D and for feed their own/partner flights. A220 would be great for these markets. Much more economical than what DL is likely to operate.

Among MXP/BCN/FCO, I just don't see them all returning given the expected demand environment to Europe. Keep in mind that I was doing the tally based on summer schedule, so it would not include GIG.
 
n7371f
Posts: 1820
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:54 pm

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 3:26 am

AA and B6 are so polar opposite with just about everything. AA soft product sucks and they gleefully keep making it worse. B6 about the best there is.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 3:34 am

tphuang wrote:
It doesn't have to be 70 slots. It could be 40 or 50 and some other carriers also returned some slots. Based on what I've seen, I think AA has released a lot of slots. I think 40 to 45 flights a day is where they will settle at. And they won't fly to most within perimeter locations. That was the original gist of this argument, right?

.........
tphuang wrote:
Let's not forget AA released 70 JFK slots.


tphuang wrote:
They just gave up 70 slots at JFK.


You have spread this rumor that AA has returned 70 slots for months now, even twice on this thread, don't backtrack now:

tphuang wrote:
I don't think they will operate to DCA/ORD/PHL/BOS. These were mostly down to 1 or 2 flights a day already. Why would they need to keep those around if they got JetBlue doing the feed now? Yes, I do think DCA-JFK on JetBlue is quite possible at this point. PHL is a goner, I'm going to look at this JetBlue thread, but I anticipate JetBlue adding a lot of these within perimeter routes that Eagle operated. if JetBlue is going to make use of AA's JFK slots, it will have to add these type of routes.


Wait, what slots are left? If AA is giving up 70 slots like you say, there is no room for giving up/switching additional JFK slots to B6. TATL timed slots can't be moved (for demand reasons). The only switching/giving up of slots at scale would have to occur at LGA.

Only ORD was down to 1-2x day. DCA was 3-5, BOS was 3-6, PHL I don't remember, some months it was off some it was 5x.

B6 isn't the end all be all, you still need to serve your hubs from JFK, especially if you are maintaining or increasing long-haul from JFK.

tphuang wrote:
I don't know where in the Caribbeans they will fly to. Maybe it will be CUN, maybe it will be MBJ, maybe somewhere else. But stuff like SJO/BDA/ANU aren't going to come back. I think they have some sat-only flights to Caribbeans. But amongst daily, I don't see more than 1 destination. Now that AA ff have all of JetBlue's vast Caribbean network, why do they even need to operate their own flight into this region? JetBlue already has so many flights to all the major leisure spots. If you really want to stay on AA, MIA connection takes you everywhere you need to go.


Again AA is already operating JFK-CUN at this moment, so you can cross CUN off the list.

Codeshares do not mean you completely get rid of your network, arguing that AA will stop flying from JFK-Caribbean altogether (except for JFK-CUN) seems quite far fetched
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 3:57 am

It's kind of ironic. Half of a.net still doesn't get how dire a financial situation the airlines are in. They still want mega mergers, dog fights, and flying prestige routes. The reality is airlines are working together for survival. Pretty much the opposite of what a.net wants the airlines are all just trying to keep flying and much less concerned with what the other airlines are doing.

This thing looks to be a business travel killer longer than anyone imagined at the beginning. My company just cancelled all business travel thru 7/1/2021, and i am sure they are not alone. The virus is part of it but video conferencing is so normal now the companies are saving alot on travel that most wasn't really needed anymore with technology it was just how business got done. The business norms have changed, and i don't see companies willing to spend the millions they use to on travel
 
Ishrion
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Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 3:58 am

Reiterating this from the recent Vasu Raja interview: https://www.planeperspectives.com/2020/ ... vasu-raja/

Yeah, we have to figure out New York and L.A. L.A. does becomes a whole lot easier with Alaska though.
Now, however, when you talk New York, let’s talk international.. Do you realize the first time we have ever made money on international was in 2019? The first time.


Guess they’re beginning to figure out New York and they’re taking advantage of their recent “success” with JFK’s international market.

If Delta shrinks in Seattle, Alaska grows, if Delta shrinks in Boston, JetBlue grows. Which means… I suspect it’s not an easy time at Delta these days.


Nice.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 4:00 am

n7371f wrote:
AA and B6 are so polar opposite with just about everything. AA soft product sucks and they gleefully keep making it worse. B6 about the best there is.


true I like AA but for actual on board product, AA Oasis config is the opposite of Jetblue :rotfl:
 
NYCAAer
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Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 4:25 am

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
a post-COVID schedule in peak summer month probably looks like this
10x LAX
4x SFO
4x PHX
6x MIA
2x DFW
4x CLT
2x ORD
4x LHR
1x CDG
1x MAD
1x TLV
1x GRU
1x EZE
1x Caribbean leisure

40 to 45 flights sound about right. AA probably had close to 120 slots before this started.


Your numbers are leaving out many destinations:
1. AA had 105 slots as of S19, that's public info, so no need to speculate on that. You are saying they got rid of 70, that would be 35 left.
https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/he ... LS-S19.pdf

I don't know how accurate that is, but I can tell you that JetBlue had peak 175 flights a day in Summer 2019 and Delta was well over 220. That's more than the slots in that file. Simple explanation being that not every flight uses a slot.

Aside from that, those number still seemed to be low. JetBlue had scheduled in around 185 this summer and retimed some of their flights (to not be red-eyes) in order to use as many slots as possible. In fact, I was told that they were previously really under utilizing their slots. Hard for me to believe they only had 167 slots.

2. Your numbers assume AA cuts ALL non-hub flying within the US except SFO, all Carribean except CUN (which they have started back already), cut DCA, and no increases to hubs. Which are quite a few pills to swallow

Breaking down your analysis specifically, you left out:
BCN
FCO
CDG
MXP

All of which have a confirmed return
http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx

I did not leave out CDG. I don't think FCO and MXP are coming back. I take international LH schedule this far out with a grain of salt.

So just long haul international, assuming all 1x daily (except 4x LHR): BCN, FCO, CDG, MXP, GRU, EZE, TLV, ATH, LHR, & MAD. (seasonal GIG offset by seasonal FCO)

That is already 13 slots + 1 CUN, so that's 21 left for domestic, of which 10+ are going to LAX.

So there are 10 slots to be split between SFO, PHX, ORD, DFW, MIA, & CLT....AND again that's assuming they cut all Caribbean, DCA/BOS, & non-hub domestic

DCA/BOS are not coming back. I don't think ORD is coming back either. It was constantly getting cut to 1 or 2 flights a day before this. After this, it's going to get cut.

Redone schedule.
10x LAX
4x SFO
4x PHX
6x MIA
4x CLT
2x DFW
4x LHR
1x CDG
1x MAD
1x BCN
1x EZE
1x GRU
1x ATH
1x TLV
1x Caribbean/CUN leisure

42 flights.


MXP and FCO are definitely coming back. The only station to serve MXP in the AA system will be JFK, as MIA-MXP has been cut. Leisure flying to the Caribbean has been more successful than VFR flights to the region, so I wouldn’t say that AA is dropping anything else, once a more regular schedule returns.
 
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gatibosgru
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Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 4:30 am

Will be a welcomed change for anyone boarding a B6 flight from AA.
@DadCelo
 
N649DL
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Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 4:38 am

Uh, sorry to rain on the the parade here, but didn't this happen back in like 2011 with AA & B6 with a Short-Lived "East Coast" Codeshare? Just checking...?

If that's the case, then AA has some great access to EWR's Terminal 1 haha.

OzarkD9S wrote:
So when do AS and B6 announce their partnership?


Should AA get involved & merge, overnight they would automatically have prime access to B6's recent expansion out of EWR. And by a lot: Compared to where DL or B6 is at the moment at EWR.

I couldn't imagine a time where AA and UA would be competing with each other out of EWR as hubs, but perhaps I should maybe get used to it.
Last edited by N649DL on Fri Jul 17, 2020 4:52 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
NYCAAer
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Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 4:40 am

N649DL wrote:
Uh, sorry to rain on the the parade here, but didn't this happen back in like 2011 with AA & B6 with a Short-Lived "East Coast" Codeshare? Just checking...?


Yes, it was around 2008-2011 or so, until the merger with US killed the deal.
 
gaystudpilot
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Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 5:06 am

AMALH747430 wrote:
winginit wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
It is not an interline agreement!

What are we talking about on here?

Does anyone read a press release?

My God!

It is a domestic codeshare.

It is a big deal. A very big deal.


Read, then post.

Again, read, then post.


Still no pricing coordination
Still no schedule coordination
Still no supply chain or workforce coordination
Still plenty of obstacles involving pilot scope clauses
Still fierce competition between these two carriers particularly on overlapping routes

Codeshare is still nothing that's even remotely close to coordination that requires anti-trust immunity, which is impossible between AA and B6 shy of an actual merger.


DING, DING, DING, DING, DING!

Its a simple codeshare, nothing more. Something AA has had with B6 in the past.

https://viewfromthewing.com/american-je ... -march-31/

This relationship is no deeper than that relationship because by law it can’t be. The deepest this partnership can get is code sharing unless the two airlines merge. Unlike UA and DL, AA can’t touch the pricing or scheduling on this part of the network.

Add to that, AA just sent out WARN notices and B6 just announced it isn’t furloughing pilots. Let’s see how much of a “genius” Vasu calls himself after the Allied Pilots Association and the Association of Professional Flight Attendants have their their way with this.

Not to mention the DOJ. They already made AA cut it’s partnership with AS in the past. AA and B6 are essentially trying to eliminate competition just like AA is doing with AS out west. Justice may not look kindly on this.

But hey, this is the airline that won’t ever lose money again with “today’s genius” as its route planner...


AA+AS+B6 partnership has the potential to drive loyalty away from others, for example, specifically DL in SEA, JFL/LGA and BOS. Agree that they can’t coordinate schedules and pricing and will not benefit from reducing redundant inefficiencies that could be addressed via a merger. However, strengthening market share in key markets and potentially weakening competitors’ position is still valuable.

Again, I doubt this will receive much DOJ scrutiny. The airline industry will be in an ugly place in 2021. Even a threeway merger will not receive much scrutiny.

Will AA be successful? We don’t know. They have a lot of challenges. They could very well fumble. But the potential upside is very attractive.
 
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Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 5:21 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
It's kind of ironic. Half of a.net still doesn't get how dire a financial situation the airlines are in. They still want mega mergers, dog fights, and flying prestige routes. The reality is airlines are working together for survival. Pretty much the opposite of what a.net wants the airlines are all just trying to keep flying and much less concerned with what the other airlines are doing.

This thing looks to be a business travel killer longer than anyone imagined at the beginning. My company just cancelled all business travel thru 7/1/2021, and i am sure they are not alone. The virus is part of it but video conferencing is so normal now the companies are saving alot on travel that most wasn't really needed anymore with technology it was just how business got done. The business norms have changed, and i don't see companies willing to spend the millions they use to on travel


The economic impacts of the pandemic and the fact that the US was heading into a recession prior to the pandemic will be huge. We are at the front end of a large and lingering problem. Of course, life will go on and we will figure out how to adapt. But a lot of industries will be devastated and the workers in those industries are going to suffer. Business and leisure traffic will be down for years as flyers pull back on travel budgets and protect their health. The airline industry will be *lucky* if it returns to 75% of pre-2020 levels by 2024. There will be no bounce back. There is simply way too much capacity for demand.

Of course the industry is on shaky financial grounds, including AA. But AA is charging ahead with a plan that will eventually lead to a “mega merger” if AA, AS and B6 can make it work.

2021 is going to be ugly. AA, AS and B6 have a plan. I assume DL, UA and the others do also. But their choices may be limited — shrink or try something else. We’ll know by 2025 who executed best.
 
gaystudpilot
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Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 5:33 am

n7371f wrote:
AA and B6 are so polar opposite with just about everything. AA soft product sucks and they gleefully keep making it worse. B6 about the best there is.


Agree. AA has been leading the race to the bottom for years. What a tarnished brand. AS and B6 try to differentiate themselves by being better.

I suspect there are some AA flyers who will jump at the chance to fly AS and B6 if there is no downside from a FF or status perspective. AA will either have to up their game or drag AS and B6 down.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:31 am

RvA wrote:
It’s a good thing AA has a lot of money spare to go and fight Delta in NYC with a partner they can’t legally coordinate very much with. Curious to see how this one will work out, should be interesting.

My initial thoughts on this exactly.


Brickell305 wrote:
It sounds more like AA is weak on the West Coast and needed a partner to help them so went with AS who is strong domestically while AA brings international flights to the table.

.....then AA goes on to can nearly all of their west coast longhaul.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
spannacomo
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Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:16 am

I wonder what consequences there would be for B6 - EK alliance (especially on the JFK-MXP route). Will this alliance break or will AA reconsider their relationship with EK?
 
dca1
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Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:18 am

If DOJ would only clear one merger for AA... who do you think would be their first choice, AS of B6?
 
tphuang
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Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:19 am

Midwestindy wrote:

You have spread this rumor that AA has returned 70 slots for months now, even twice on this thread, don't backtrack now:

I mean the rumour was 70 slots got returned, not sure how many were for AA. If it makes you feel better, I will say AA returned a bunch of slots from now on. Either way, I see a 40 to 45 flight schedule. Basically, what they were running pre-COVID - eagle flying - stuff they added to try to utilize more slots - couple of TATL flights.

Wait, what slots are left? If AA is giving up 70 slots like you say, there is no room for giving up/switching additional JFK slots to B6. TATL timed slots can't be moved (for demand reasons). The only switching/giving up of slots at scale would have to occur at LGA.

Only ORD was down to 1-2x day. DCA was 3-5, BOS was 3-6, PHL I don't remember, some months it was off some it was 5x.

B6 isn't the end all be all, you still need to serve your hubs from JFK, especially if you are maintaining or increasing long-haul from JFK.

ORD was 1 to 2x daily. BOS was at 2x daily for much of the last few years. They moved some of these flights to 3 to 5x to squat on slots. But it was terrible costly. Now with B6 involved, they really don't need to operate these flights. They started off PHL at 5x to slot on squ. It was a terrible idea and got to 1x pretty quickly.

Keep in mind BOS/DCA/PHL were all operated with E40s and those aren't coming back.

Again, AA has been running a very aggressive schedule compared to other legacies and they haven't operated these routes or even DFW for months.

Again AA is already operating JFK-CUN at this moment, so you can cross CUN off the list.

Codeshares do not mean you completely get rid of your network, arguing that AA will stop flying from JFK-Caribbean altogether (except for JFK-CUN) seems quite far fetched


Well, they only had BDA/CUN/ANU as year round close to 1x daily flights before they added MBJ/SJO/GEO at end of last year as part of their effort to utilize more slots. BDA has already been cut until next year. ANU is Sat only until second half of november. That's a good sign to me neither are coming back as more than Sat-Only flights.

You make it sound like they had a robust JFK Caribbean network before this when it was tiny.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 11:42 am

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

You have spread this rumor that AA has returned 70 slots for months now, even twice on this thread, don't backtrack now:

I mean the rumour was 70 slots got returned, not sure how many were for AA. If it makes you feel better, I will say AA returned a bunch of slots from now on. Either way, I see a 40 to 45 flight schedule. Basically, what they were running pre-COVID - eagle flying - stuff they added to try to utilize more slots - couple of TATL flights.

Wait, what slots are left? If AA is giving up 70 slots like you say, there is no room for giving up/switching additional JFK slots to B6. TATL timed slots can't be moved (for demand reasons). The only switching/giving up of slots at scale would have to occur at LGA.

Only ORD was down to 1-2x day. DCA was 3-5, BOS was 3-6, PHL I don't remember, some months it was off some it was 5x.

B6 isn't the end all be all, you still need to serve your hubs from JFK, especially if you are maintaining or increasing long-haul from JFK.

ORD was 1 to 2x daily. BOS was at 2x daily for much of the last few years. They moved some of these flights to 3 to 5x to squat on slots. But it was terrible costly. Now with B6 involved, they really don't need to operate these flights. They started off PHL at 5x to slot on squ. It was a terrible idea and got to 1x pretty quickly.

Keep in mind BOS/DCA/PHL were all operated with E40s and those aren't coming back.

Again, AA has been running a very aggressive schedule compared to other legacies and they haven't operated these routes or even DFW for months.

Again AA is already operating JFK-CUN at this moment, so you can cross CUN off the list.

Codeshares do not mean you completely get rid of your network, arguing that AA will stop flying from JFK-Caribbean altogether (except for JFK-CUN) seems quite far fetched


Well, they only had BDA/CUN/ANU as year round close to 1x daily flights before they added MBJ/SJO/GEO at end of last year as part of their effort to utilize more slots. BDA has already been cut until next year. ANU is Sat only until second half of november. That's a good sign to me neither are coming back as more than Sat-Only flights.

You make it sound like they had a robust JFK Caribbean network before this when it was tiny.


I could care less whether or if AA returned 1-2-3-4-or a million slots, my issue is when you repeat things as fact when you actually don't know the truth.

Per T100 data, AA hasn't even run a single E140 on JFK-BOS since April 2019, JFK-DCA was all mainline/E175, JFK-PHL is the 50 seater route you are referring to.

It's not worth going back & forth on this, we will see what they will run in a few years, and neither of us know with any certainty.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
Cointrin330
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Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 11:56 am

spannacomo wrote:
I wonder what consequences there would be for B6 - EK alliance (especially on the JFK-MXP route). Will this alliance break or will AA reconsider their relationship with EK?


I suspect EK will cut JFK-MXP-DXB and just fly MXP-DXB. The rationale for EK to be in the market has changed so much since the pandemic.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 12:03 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

You have spread this rumor that AA has returned 70 slots for months now, even twice on this thread, don't backtrack now:

I mean the rumour was 70 slots got returned, not sure how many were for AA. If it makes you feel better, I will say AA returned a bunch of slots from now on. Either way, I see a 40 to 45 flight schedule. Basically, what they were running pre-COVID - eagle flying - stuff they added to try to utilize more slots - couple of TATL flights.

Wait, what slots are left? If AA is giving up 70 slots like you say, there is no room for giving up/switching additional JFK slots to B6. TATL timed slots can't be moved (for demand reasons). The only switching/giving up of slots at scale would have to occur at LGA.

Only ORD was down to 1-2x day. DCA was 3-5, BOS was 3-6, PHL I don't remember, some months it was off some it was 5x.

B6 isn't the end all be all, you still need to serve your hubs from JFK, especially if you are maintaining or increasing long-haul from JFK.

ORD was 1 to 2x daily. BOS was at 2x daily for much of the last few years. They moved some of these flights to 3 to 5x to squat on slots. But it was terrible costly. Now with B6 involved, they really don't need to operate these flights. They started off PHL at 5x to slot on squ. It was a terrible idea and got to 1x pretty quickly.

Keep in mind BOS/DCA/PHL were all operated with E40s and those aren't coming back.

Again, AA has been running a very aggressive schedule compared to other legacies and they haven't operated these routes or even DFW for months.

Again AA is already operating JFK-CUN at this moment, so you can cross CUN off the list.

Codeshares do not mean you completely get rid of your network, arguing that AA will stop flying from JFK-Caribbean altogether (except for JFK-CUN) seems quite far fetched


Well, they only had BDA/CUN/ANU as year round close to 1x daily flights before they added MBJ/SJO/GEO at end of last year as part of their effort to utilize more slots. BDA has already been cut until next year. ANU is Sat only until second half of november. That's a good sign to me neither are coming back as more than Sat-Only flights.

You make it sound like they had a robust JFK Caribbean network before this when it was tiny.


I could care less whether or if AA returned 1-2-3-4-or a million slots, my issue is when you repeat things as fact when you actually don't know the truth.

Per T100 data, AA hasn't even run a single E140 on JFK-BOS since April 2019, JFK-DCA was all mainline/E175, JFK-PHL is the 50 seater route you are referring to.

It's not worth going back & forth on this, we will see what they will run in a few years, and neither of us know with any certainty.


Amen! The constant dribble on slots being returned is essentially a moot point now, given ALL the cuts resulting from COVID19 and the anticipation it will take 2 years for traffic levels to return to pre-pandemic rates. Slots being returned don't mean they're to be picked up by someone else. The reality is airports will have capacity for quite some time, and not just in the US, but globally. I was at T4 at JFK three weeks ago, on a Saturday. There was a grand total of 6 DL departures that day. What about those slots?? It's a tired argument and it's meaningless in the new world aviation is faced with.
 
tphuang
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Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 12:05 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

You have spread this rumor that AA has returned 70 slots for months now, even twice on this thread, don't backtrack now:

I mean the rumour was 70 slots got returned, not sure how many were for AA. If it makes you feel better, I will say AA returned a bunch of slots from now on. Either way, I see a 40 to 45 flight schedule. Basically, what they were running pre-COVID - eagle flying - stuff they added to try to utilize more slots - couple of TATL flights.

Wait, what slots are left? If AA is giving up 70 slots like you say, there is no room for giving up/switching additional JFK slots to B6. TATL timed slots can't be moved (for demand reasons). The only switching/giving up of slots at scale would have to occur at LGA.

Only ORD was down to 1-2x day. DCA was 3-5, BOS was 3-6, PHL I don't remember, some months it was off some it was 5x.

B6 isn't the end all be all, you still need to serve your hubs from JFK, especially if you are maintaining or increasing long-haul from JFK.

ORD was 1 to 2x daily. BOS was at 2x daily for much of the last few years. They moved some of these flights to 3 to 5x to squat on slots. But it was terrible costly. Now with B6 involved, they really don't need to operate these flights. They started off PHL at 5x to slot on squ. It was a terrible idea and got to 1x pretty quickly.

Keep in mind BOS/DCA/PHL were all operated with E40s and those aren't coming back.

Again, AA has been running a very aggressive schedule compared to other legacies and they haven't operated these routes or even DFW for months.

Again AA is already operating JFK-CUN at this moment, so you can cross CUN off the list.

Codeshares do not mean you completely get rid of your network, arguing that AA will stop flying from JFK-Caribbean altogether (except for JFK-CUN) seems quite far fetched


Well, they only had BDA/CUN/ANU as year round close to 1x daily flights before they added MBJ/SJO/GEO at end of last year as part of their effort to utilize more slots. BDA has already been cut until next year. ANU is Sat only until second half of november. That's a good sign to me neither are coming back as more than Sat-Only flights.

You make it sound like they had a robust JFK Caribbean network before this when it was tiny.


I could care less whether or if AA returned 1-2-3-4-or a million slots, my issue is when you repeat things as fact when you actually don't know the truth.

Per T100 data, AA hasn't even run a single E140 on JFK-BOS since April 2019, JFK-DCA was all mainline/E175, JFK-PHL is the 50 seater route you are referring to.

It's not worth going back & forth on this, we will see what they will run in a few years.


sure, guilty of being simplistic. Do you need me to say every time, "I heard a bunch of JFK slots have been released and I think they are most likely from AA." when this comes up every time because some people don't want to accept that AA will have permanently reduced presence in JFK?

For the past few years, they've been running a mix of A321T and 50 seaters on JFK-BOS. my point was that these flights were on terribly high cost aircraft. If the point of AA's partnership with B6 is to reduce feeds that are unprofitable, then there is no reason to keep these flights around. Domestically, I only see DFW being brought back by next summer.

Cointrin330 wrote:
Amen! The constant dribble on slots being returned is essentially a moot point now, given ALL the cuts resulting from COVID19 and the anticipation it will take 2 years for traffic levels to return to pre-pandemic rates. Slots being returned don't mean they're to be picked up by someone else. The reality is airports will have capacity for quite some time, and not just in the US, but globally. I was at T4 at JFK three weeks ago, on a Saturday. There was a grand total of 6 DL departures that day. What about those slots?? It's a tired argument and it's meaningless in the new world aviation is faced with.


The primary aspect of this partnership is for JetBlue to add a bunch of flights out of JFK so that it can feed AA there. JetBlue pilots secured no furlough in exchange for allowing this codeshare. I think you should expect JetBlue to be operating an expanded schedule next summer out of JFK.
Last edited by tphuang on Fri Jul 17, 2020 12:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 1991
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 12:12 pm

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I mean the rumour was 70 slots got returned, not sure how many were for AA. If it makes you feel better, I will say AA returned a bunch of slots from now on. Either way, I see a 40 to 45 flight schedule. Basically, what they were running pre-COVID - eagle flying - stuff they added to try to utilize more slots - couple of TATL flights.


ORD was 1 to 2x daily. BOS was at 2x daily for much of the last few years. They moved some of these flights to 3 to 5x to squat on slots. But it was terrible costly. Now with B6 involved, they really don't need to operate these flights. They started off PHL at 5x to slot on squ. It was a terrible idea and got to 1x pretty quickly.

Keep in mind BOS/DCA/PHL were all operated with E40s and those aren't coming back.

Again, AA has been running a very aggressive schedule compared to other legacies and they haven't operated these routes or even DFW for months.



Well, they only had BDA/CUN/ANU as year round close to 1x daily flights before they added MBJ/SJO/GEO at end of last year as part of their effort to utilize more slots. BDA has already been cut until next year. ANU is Sat only until second half of november. That's a good sign to me neither are coming back as more than Sat-Only flights.

You make it sound like they had a robust JFK Caribbean network before this when it was tiny.


I could care less whether or if AA returned 1-2-3-4-or a million slots, my issue is when you repeat things as fact when you actually don't know the truth.

Per T100 data, AA hasn't even run a single E140 on JFK-BOS since April 2019, JFK-DCA was all mainline/E175, JFK-PHL is the 50 seater route you are referring to.

It's not worth going back & forth on this, we will see what they will run in a few years.


sure, guilty of being simplistic. Do you need me to say every time, "I heard a bunch of JFK slots have been released and I think they are most likely from AA." when this comes up every time because some people don't want to accept that AA will have permanently reduced presence in JFK?

For the past few years, they've been running a mix of A321T and 50 seaters on JFK-BOS. my point was that these flights were on terribly high cost aircraft. If the point of AA's partnership with B6 is to reduce feeds that are unprofitable, then there is no reason to keep these flights around. Domestically, I only see DFW being brought back by next summer.


Everyone has a reduced presence at JFK, including AA, DL, and B6 right now. The slot issue is moot. The A321T was rotated on JFK-BOS to fly a BOS-LAX service for a time. No one disagrees with you that American will have a reduced footprint at JFK with its own metal, but dude, it already does and has long before COVID19 was a factor. AA had capacity for 120 daily departures, which dropped to 90, then 70-78 with the slot waiver / runway construction issue. They optimized it and achieved profitability at JFK for the first time in 2019. AA doesn't want a hub at JFK and knows it can't build one or bother with it, so it's looking at creative solutions. You may see what you want, but more domestic mainline will be back by next summer assuming the pandemic abates. PHX, MIA, and likely the AUS and SAT flights will return to. They will just fly to markets that make sense for them.
 
TW787
Posts: 51
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 2:50 pm

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:15 pm

jayunited wrote:
Philly65 wrote:
Massive divestitures will be required and I doubt it will make this venture worthwhile. Plus layer job losses etc.. Southwest and others will be lining up for NYC slots. Then you have the JFK vs PHL question. JFK would be the victor but who steps up for PHL? Southwest?



There will be no divestitures because this is nothing more than a codeshare. People are trying to make this more than what it is but a codeshare is a codeshare, this isn't a JV or a merger. Both airlines still maintain separate airlines, separate systems, separate pricing. Of course AA in their announcement is going to play this up to make it seem like this partnership is something new but in reality we've all seen this before with UA and US, AA and B6, AA and AS (were partners in the past), and if I'm not mistaken weren't CO and DL, or CO and NW at one point codeshare partners.

I'm saying all of that to say this is nothing new.


If a codeshare has no reduction in competitive dynamics, then why were AA and AS forced to reduce the scope of their codeshare agreement as a condition of DOJ approval of the AS/VX merger? In the DOJ's eyes, at least, reduction of scope in that codeshare agreement increased competition. So, with all due respect, it really doesn't matter what your opinion is, as the DOJ is on record as saying codeshare reduces competition. They're the ones who get to decide.
 
vadodara
Posts: 1146
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Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:17 pm

AA has done a very job of route planning/expansion outside of DFW. Vasu Raja is finally turning this around, albeit with a weak hand.
Given AA's weak financial condition, he did not have much of a choice but to leverage AS/B6 on West Coast/NE respectively to compete DL.

DL used the same logic on international routes with the AF/KLM model applied to other alliances.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5190
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:20 pm

8-K from JetBlue website.
http://otp.investis.com/generic/sec/sec ... 3&Type=PDF
Initial agreement is for 7 years and can be extended to 10. After that, agreement is automatically renewed for 5 years unless it gets terminated. Early termination can result in early termination fee.

"The foregoing descriptions of the NEA Agreement, the Codeshare Agreement, and the MGIA constitute only a summary thereof and each is qualified in its entiretyby reference to the text thereof, which JetBlue intends to file as an exhibit to its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2020"

Looks like we are going to have to wait for a while to see the full text of agreement.
 
DMPHL
Posts: 29
Joined: Sat Nov 04, 2017 6:33 pm

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:07 pm

TW787 wrote:
jayunited wrote:
Philly65 wrote:
Massive divestitures will be required and I doubt it will make this venture worthwhile. Plus layer job losses etc.. Southwest and others will be lining up for NYC slots. Then you have the JFK vs PHL question. JFK would be the victor but who steps up for PHL? Southwest?



There will be no divestitures because this is nothing more than a codeshare. People are trying to make this more than what it is but a codeshare is a codeshare, this isn't a JV or a merger. Both airlines still maintain separate airlines, separate systems, separate pricing. Of course AA in their announcement is going to play this up to make it seem like this partnership is something new but in reality we've all seen this before with UA and US, AA and B6, AA and AS (were partners in the past), and if I'm not mistaken weren't CO and DL, or CO and NW at one point codeshare partners.

I'm saying all of that to say this is nothing new.


If a codeshare has no reduction in competitive dynamics, then why were AA and AS forced to reduce the scope of their codeshare agreement as a condition of DOJ approval of the AS/VX merger? In the DOJ's eyes, at least, reduction of scope in that codeshare agreement increased competition. So, with all due respect, it really doesn't matter what your opinion is, as the DOJ is on record as saying codeshare reduces competition. They're the ones who get to decide.


IIRC, the main issue with the AA/AS partnership when AS acquired VX was focused on the potential for decreased competition on transcon routes, which AS was acquiring as part of its merger with VX. In order to maintain competition for consumers, AS was required to reduce the scope of its partnership with AA. Someone may correct me if I don't have it exactly right.
 
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jfklganyc
Posts: 5952
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:36 pm

Re JFK BOS

AA pilots had a clause in their contact. Something along the lines of, if the two cities are AA pilot bases, the aircraft operating the route must be operated by “a wholly owned carrier.”


When Eagle (Now Envoy) shut NE bases for a while, this presented a problem. They couldn’t use the outsourced carriers doing JFK flying to fly between BOS and JFK

They cut the Eagle service (usually 5 daily) and started Mainline 3 daily. Over the years it has been reduced to 2 daily.


And as contracts changed, this provision likely went away.

But that is the history of the low frequency and awkward mix of aircraft...ON THIS IMPORTANT ROUTE.

The route is important
 
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OzarkD9S
Posts: 5677
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2001 2:31 am

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:47 pm

dca1 wrote:

If DOJ would only clear one merger for AA... who do you think would be their first choice, AS of B6?


B6. I can't imagine AA wanting to tackle all the specialty flying AS does in the state of Alaska. Keep AS as a partner, merge with B6. All a pipe dream at this point of course.
"True, I talk of dreams,
Which are the children of an idle brain." -Mercutio
 
onwFan
Posts: 435
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:54 pm

OzarkD9S wrote:
dca1 wrote:

If DOJ would only clear one merger for AA... who do you think would be their first choice, AS of B6?


B6. I can't imagine AA wanting to tackle all the specialty flying AS does in the state of Alaska. Keep AS as a partner, merge with B6. All a pipe dream at this point of course.

From a network point of view, that would make no sense. What AA is missing is not yet two more hubs on the East Coast. They don’t need all of PHL, JFK, BOS + LGA/DCA on top of that. The B6 partnership is just for both AA/B6 to stay relevant in JFK and BOS against DL and UA. What AA needs badly is a West coast hub, and especially some more presence in the PNW. The choice is obviously AS.
 
kavok
Posts: 829
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 3:09 pm

One key difference between AA+B6 and AA+AS is how the partnership impacts networks.

The AA+B6 isn’t likely to result in many situations where AA and B6 “trade routes”, not that they are legally allowed to coordinate anyway.
The main benefit to AA is that B6 can provide feed to 1) AA’s TATL flights from BOS/JFK and 2) feed to AA/Eagle on flights to smaller cities B6 doesn’t serve. The main benefit to B6 is that now B6 frequent flyers have better access to international destinations and small domestic cities. And while that is great for both, it doesn’t really change the network structure much.

Unlike AA+B6, AA+AS will fundamentally change each airline’s scope of service from a key airport (LAX). For that reason, the AS partnership is probably more meaningful to AA. Put simply, AA was flying to a lot of smaller cities from LAX that they didn’t want to serve. Conversely, AS benefits from flying to LAX from those same small west coast cities, but didn’t add them earlier because AS didn’t want to get into a battle with AA over them. The AA+AS partnership allows AA to shrink LAX, and thus allows AS to grow LAX. Thus AA+AS will be more impactful as a whole, but B6+AA is still obviously beneficial to both too.
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 723
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 3:18 pm

kavok wrote:
One key difference between AA+B6 and AA+AS is how the partnership impacts networks.

The AA+B6 isn’t likely to result in many situations where AA and B6 “trade routes”, not that they are legally allowed to coordinate anyway.
The main benefit to AA is that B6 can provide feed to 1) AA’s TATL flights from BOS/JFK and 2) feed to AA/Eagle on flights to smaller cities B6 doesn’t serve. The main benefit to B6 is that now B6 frequent flyers have better access to international destinations and small domestic cities. And while that is great for both, it doesn’t really change the network structure much.

Unlike AA+B6, AA+AS will fundamentally change each airline’s scope of service from a key airport (LAX). For that reason, the AS partnership is probably more meaningful to AA. Put simply, AA was flying to a lot of smaller cities from LAX that they didn’t want to serve. Conversely, AS benefits from flying to LAX from those same small west coast cities, but didn’t add them earlier because AS didn’t want to get into a battle with AA over them. The AA+AS partnership allows AA to shrink LAX, and thus allows AS to grow LAX. Thus AA+AS will be more impactful as a whole, but B6+AA is still obviously beneficial to both too.



AA can get the benefits you mentioned form a B6 merger and I'm sure B6 would love to pick up AA's slack in LAX to boot.

Not that I want to see B6 merge with AA. What a nightmare that would be.
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 665
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 3:28 pm

A merger with B6 would destroy whatever B6 has going for it. Parker would turn it into an ULCC over night and labor relations would be beyond sour.
 
MKIAZ
Posts: 278
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 5:24 am

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Fri Jul 17, 2020 3:43 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Reiterating this from the recent Vasu Raja interview: https://www.planeperspectives.com/2020/ ... vasu-raja/

Yeah, we have to figure out New York and L.A. L.A. does becomes a whole lot easier with Alaska though.
Now, however, when you talk New York, let’s talk international.. Do you realize the first time we have ever made money on international was in 2019? The first time.



I mean it's not rocket science. You cut out the flights that lose money and suddenly you're profitable. Of course, then you're also giving up market share to competitors which tends to cause local FF's to switch to a competitor, which tends to cause your remaining flights to start losing money, resulting in more cuts, ect. It's a cycle.
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