a post-COVID schedule in peak summer month probably looks like this
1x Caribbean leisure
40 to 45 flights sound about right. AA probably had close to 120 slots before this started.
Your numbers are leaving out many destinations:
1. AA had 105 slots as of S19, that's public info, so no need to speculate on that. You are saying they got rid of 70, that would be 35 left.https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/he ... LS-S19.pdf
I don't know how accurate that is, but I can tell you that JetBlue had peak 175 flights a day in Summer 2019 and Delta was well over 220. That's more than the slots in that file. Simple explanation being that not every flight uses a slot.
Aside from that, those number still seemed to be low. JetBlue had scheduled in around 185 this summer and retimed some of their flights (to not be red-eyes) in order to use as many slots as possible. In fact, I was told that they were previously really under utilizing their slots. Hard for me to believe they only had 167 slots.
2. Your numbers assume AA cuts ALL non-hub flying within the US except SFO, all Carribean except CUN (which they have started back already), cut DCA, and no increases to hubs. Which are quite a few pills to swallow
Breaking down your analysis specifically, you left out:
All of which have a confirmed returnhttp://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx
I did not leave out CDG. I don't think FCO and MXP are coming back. I take international LH schedule this far out with a grain of salt.
So just long haul international, assuming all 1x daily (except 4x LHR): BCN, FCO, CDG, MXP, GRU, EZE, TLV, ATH, LHR, & MAD. (seasonal GIG offset by seasonal FCO)
That is already 13 slots + 1 CUN, so that's 21 left for domestic, of which 10+ are going to LAX.
So there are 10 slots to be split between SFO, PHX, ORD, DFW, MIA, & CLT....AND again that's assuming they cut all Caribbean, DCA/BOS, & non-hub domestic
DCA/BOS are not coming back. I don't think ORD is coming back either. It was constantly getting cut to 1 or 2 flights a day before this. After this, it's going to get cut.
1x Caribbean/CUN leisure
If you have a better source than the FAA on slots please share....
Here is an article from Cranky flier in early 2019, btw AA lost a couple slots after this article was written:
"American can run 111 daily flights from JFK with the slots it has"https://crankyflier.com/2019/04/09/afte ... this-fall/
If they wanted to cancel any of those long-haul routes, they had every opportunity to do it a week ago when they announced large int'l cuts. They directly said JFK-MXP is coming backhttp://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx
Again, your 70 slot reduction doesn't make sense, as why would they give up 70 slots for free?
1. Assuming your extremely aggressive cuts, they could only give up 50-60 and still be within the 80% limit.
2. They could lease them for cheap to B6, or transfer them directly. Because again, the point of this agreement is partnership in NYC
3. Giving up 70 allows for no room for growth at all for the future.....
4. Vasu mentioned in an interview in late June, that they were worried about losing slots in NYC if they made cuts. Why would he be worried if they already returned 2/3rds of them?
5. Your schedule assumptions don't make sense to get to the 70 number:
- If all non-hub flying is cut you would have to at least keep flying at the same level to hubs (if not increase hub-JFK service) since these pax will now be connecting. Codeshare flying won't cover all of that
- JFK-MIA is already operating at 5x daily, you really think they'll only add one more flight to that? JFK-CLT is already operating at 4x, & with their growth at CLT, you think they will remain the same frequency as COVID?
- You don't think AA will operate DCA, ORD, PHL, or BOS from JFK (Only leaving service to 5 Hubs!)? You don't think they will fly to anywhere in the Caribbean other than CUN?
I think you can appreciate why I am highly skeptical of what you are saying....